Kevin Williamson, way back in 2009 I think, predicted that ObamaCare would collapse and either be repealed or drastically altered. His reasoning was that any attempt to rearrange 1/6th of the US economy was going to end in disaster. The public would be furious and the politicians of both parties would sprint to remedy the problem. Throw in the fact that the mathematics never made sense and it could not last and therefore would not last. I wish I could find the article as it should be framed as an honor to the one man who may have predicted the whole thing. At least it looks like he nailed it, assuming my recollection is correct.

I thought about that when I saw this. We’re seeing a lot of soul searching on the part of Democrats now that the poop has hit the fan with the exchanges, rate hikes and cancellations. Democrats probably believed the marketing from the Left. The argument that this disaster was part of the plan to advance single payer does not hold up. If these guys were that clever, they would not be running for the hills right now. They would have come up with a more clever way to march us to their preferred scheme. As is the case with all conspiracy theories, we have to believe that the conspirators are super geniuses who make elementary mistakes. The people who wrote this bill are not geniuses. They were true believers who thought it would work. They convinced the politicians of it.

Now they have a big problem. Obama and the White House probably don’t care. Obama has always been oddly indifferent to politics. Steve Sailer has thoughts on that, but I’m not sure he is right. Obama is most likely just a guy who does not play well with others, particularly the type who is in politics. As the Israelis have learned, the Democrats in Congress are learning that they cannot rely on this administration to guard their interests. That means they have to figure out how to cut their own deal with the GOP. It also means they may have to cut Obama loose, so to speak. Inside the party that is going to be very difficult. When you have spent the last five years calling anyone who opposed Obama a racist, how do you oppose Obama without opening yourself up to the same charge?

Then there is the natural divide within a party when facing a midterm. Safe Democrats will hold a different view than vulnerable Democrats.  Mary Landrieu will have no choice but to become a vocal opponent of ObamaCare if she expects to remain in the Senate. On the other hand, Elizabeth Warren can be the defender of the faith as she has no fear of the voters. Harry Reid can scheme against both sides to help those with a chance to win over those who are in hopeless races. Landreiu, if she is not careful, could find herself getting the cold shoulder from her party in 2014. That sort of stuff makes it very hard for the party to navigate. At some point, they will have to land on a strategy to unburden themselves of this fiasco.

The trouble is they were not prepared for this. The whole game of social democracy is that people like free stuff. If every free stuff scheme has something close to a majority getting their beak wet, then there’s never a majority in favor of getting rid of it. There may not be a majority getting welfare, but there are plenty of others willing to support what they view as riot insurance. “Better to give them housing and liquor money than have them burning down the city.” The middle class goes along with socialism because they fear social unrest more than the IRS. With massive money creation and borrowing, social democracy looks like the cure to all of life’s problems. The trouble here is there is no benefit. No one is getting the free stuff or the protection from those wanting free stuff. ObamaCare is just a wrecking ball through the existing order.

That’s why the theory in the Forbes article seems right, but the Democrats are not there psychologically. Again, they thought this was going to work. They have spent the last year calling Republicans Hitler loving child rapists. How in the hell can they now expect any help pulling their nuts out of the fire? How can they get their foaming at the mouth supporters to agree to the biggest walk back in political history? Even the most cynical politician has to know this is impossible. Therefore, the more likely scenario is they own it. They put out the word to the press to sell it and they roll out a massive PR campaign next year that promotes the program and blames the GOP for its defects.  They have no other choice.

ObamaCare will collapse, just not now.