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Wars often turn over rocks exposing truths about the age that have either been ignored or hidden from the world. Old tactics, in the case of the Great War, were exposed as obsolete by modern weapons. Sometimes it is in war that the hollowness of a great power is exposed. This was the case of the Soviets in Afghanistan. That war exposed the internal weakness of the regime. The war in Ukraine is similarly exposing problems in the collective West.
The first lesson of this war so far is that Western intelligence has been exposed as useless in understanding modern Russia. At every turn, the information provided to political leaders about what Russia is doing and planning to do has turned out to be more fantasy than reality. The West has been operating on assumptions that may have been true twenty-five years ago but are no longer true today. The result has been a total political failure in response to the invasion.
The big example of this was the claim that the Russians could only support their army in Ukraine for a couple of months. Western strategy was built on the assumption that the Ukrainians just had to hold out for a month or two. They would dig into fortified positions and wait out the Russian assault. Instead, a highly mobile and patient Russian assault is slowly decimating the Ukrainian army. Three months into the conflict and the Russians are on the cusp of victory.
This is another rock turned over in this war. The West has been preparing for a war with a Russian army than has not existed since the Cold War. The Soviet way of war was something called deep battle doctrine. This is based on a highly mobile, combined arms approach to fighting. The Russians would find a weak spot in the enemy front, concentrate forces there, break through the lines and then flood the zone with armor and infantry, creating chaos in the enemy rear.
The Soviet approach required large numbers of men. It imagined millions of men mobilized to fight in the West. This is not the new Russian way of war. The Russians, like everyone else in the West, have been living in the age of low fertility and rising standards of living. Mobilizing millions of men and throwing them into battle like Stalin did against the Nazis is no longer acceptable. Instead, the Russians have organized around reducing casualties to the minimum.
As a practical matter, what those hunkered down Ukrainians have been facing is something like what the Mongols brought to the fight. Instead of one massive army centrally controlled from the rear, it is a collection of small units, self contained and self-directed toward narrow goals. These units combine infantry, armor, mobile artillery and air support, along with the use of drones. This is combined arms warfare reduced to small units working independently.
Because these units are smaller, they are more intolerant of personnel losses, so they are more cautious. A unit that loses its tanks is no longer effective as a unit, so the premium is on reducing losses. The goal is to use speed and mobility to find weak spots in the enemy and quickly exploit them, with minimum losses. Overall, this is a much slower approach to fighting, but once a weakness is exposed, it can be exploited much faster due to the improved mobility and flexibility.
This is on display in the Donbas. The Russians used artillery and airpower to break down the Ukrainian defenses at Popasnaya, which is a strategic town in the middle of the contact line. The Russians were then able to rush units into this breech and employ the modern version of deep battle doctrine. These small units combined to turn the contact line into a series of pockets surrounded by Russian units. Now the Russians are pounding these cauldrons with artillery and air power.
The result is the West, primarily Washington, prepared the Ukrainians to fight the wrong war against the wrong army. Instead of a short defense against a Soviet siege, they are getting a war of attrition against a highly mobile and flexible army using the right weapons for such a fight. That is another aspect of this war that should be a wake up call to Western planners. The Russian weapons are better and more useful than the Western weapons supplied to the Ukrainians.
In line with the new way of fighting, the Russians have developed weapons that can be incredibly useful with small, combined arms units. They do not require a complex information grid so that commanders in the rear can direct the action. Modern technology is used to make it easy for these small units to fight effectively on their own or quickly combine with other units on the fly. The Russians have also done their homework and have evolved effective counter measures.
This is why the many “game changers” the West has sent to the Ukrainians have failed to do much damage to the Russian forces. The javelin has been a bust. The Man-portable air defense systems (ManPads) are worthless. The Russians have made these weapons obsolete. The big shock is their drone defense. The kamikaze drones and the Turkish TB2 have not been the game changer that was promised because the Russians have evolved effective jamming tools.
Probably the biggest rocks turned over in this war are economic. The assumption of the West when they instigated this war was that the Russian economy had not changed since the end of the Cold War. For a long time, the West has looked at Russia as a gas station masquerading as a country. It was a version of Venezuela, wholly dependent on selling natural resources to the West. If the sale of those resources slowed just a bit, then the Russian economy would collapse.
This has turned out to be wildly wrong. Now, part of this failure is due to the raging bigotry of the neocons behind the war. Their seething hatred for the Russian people has blinded them to many things. The economic revolution that has taken place in Russia is the biggest one. It turns out that the Russian economy is much more resilient and flexible than anyone in the West realized. As a result, the sanctions regime has turned out to be a disastrous failure.
That has turned over another economic rock. The European economy has been revealed to be a house of cards. The sanctions regime is creating havoc for the Europeans, because their economy was based on the assumption that the Russians would always supply them with cheap necessities. The EU is a mommy economy where Mother Russia makes sure her babies are warm and fed. Shortages and spirally prices are bringing this reality home to Europeans.
In total, what the war in Ukraine is revealing is that the collective West has been living in a fantasy world for the last few decades. Without a real challenge, they have been allowed to indulge in whatever fantasies they liked. Like trust fund babies raised in insular opulence, Western leaders are unprepared for a world where they have to perform their role as elites. The war is exposing them as a toxic blend of self-indulgence, stupidity and ignorance.
The truth about war is that the rocks that it turns over cannot be turned back over to hide the truth underneath. The West will now have to face this new reality, especially on the economic front. The grand schemes for creating a new world order in the image of Western elites will now have to give way to this new realty. What has been revealed is that the new world order is one in which the West must compete in a multipolar world of civilizational equals. That means a new elite for this new age.
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Not sure we’ve ever gotten Russia right. Took a two term sequence in modern Russian history around 1981, at the height of the Science! of Kremlinology. Then watched as much of what was assumed about Soviet politics and put into textbooks was undone as the Soviet archives were opened. And recall about the same time there was a “rogue” intelligence analyst that somehow got Reagan’s ear at the point the approved Kremlin Science! had the Russian economy rapidly growing and on track to bury the west. He didn’t think so and proposed a humint based program that looked at conditions in the farther reaches of the Empire focused on things like food and goods deliveries. He got it approved and soon came back with assessment the Soviet Union was an economic wreck teetering on the edge.
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The great military strategist Scott Adams opined that Russia couldn’t hold out or secure positions because of the West’s modern drone warfare. This guy couldn’t secure his nubile young wife so there’s that.
I imagine the any western military response to be something similar to the police response to the Texas school murders. Events constantly reveal our weak and broken souls trying to sustain a country that is no longer it’s former self. Men without chests.
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On the other hand, scott’s nubile young ex-wife no doubt secured her hold on his assets.
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For such a smart guy, he fell for one of the oldest ruses in the book.
Is there anyone who didn’t see that coming?
“Is there anyone who didn’t see that coming?”
Yes. Scott Adams.
But let’s listen to him predict the future!
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it’s like scott doesn’t know he looks like a human vulture!
In any major disaster event the lack of coordinated effort and information sharing is always magnified to the Nth degree because of the various department heads not all being on the same page, it was only because a lone alpha male rushed in to act independently that more school children were not shot. You see this over and over during disasters, it’s the people who organize themselves locally and act without waiting for permission that actually do help..
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seems like these repeated military fiascos will drive the US leadership inwards, becoming more insular and isolationist. won’t be long before the money spigot to the armed forces is turned off, thankfully. what a colossal waste of men and money they turned out to be. now they can all be police officers standing around eating donuts while schools get shot up.
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One of my kids has several engineering classmates that interned at the shipyard producing the “state of the art” Littoral Combat Ships. Even as 2nd and 3rd year NavArch students they could recognize these things were pieces of crap. Yet supposed to be the mainstay of littoral water power projection. He told me they’d likely never see service over three years ago. Now they finally announce that….the USN is scrapping 8 brand new ships. That’s “end of empire” stuff
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plus that one littoral ship a malcontent started a fire on, that wrecked the ship to the point it had to be scrapped! probably just a pile of oily rags did the trick. imagine if the POS had been hit with ordnance?!
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That ship the sailor set on fire was an old school Wasp class amphibious assault ship (LHA), which were good ships with long service, the littoral combat ship was something entirely different.
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oops, my mistake.
“The first lesson of this war so far is that Western intelligence has been exposed as useless in understanding modern Russia. At every turn, the information provided to political leaders about what Russia is doing and planning to do has turned out to be more fantasy than reality.”
What if the information “intelligence” has provided to “leadership” has been deliberately false? In other words, factions within the Security State wanted this conflict and lied to elected officials to get their glorious little war. Even that is generous in that it assumes “leadership” had to be deceived.
What this war has exposed is the Empire of Lies literally is the Empire of Lies. Granted, some of the delusional NPC’s who thought they could meme Putin out of existence have filtered into key positions of power and that accounts for part of the cognivite dissonance, but only some. The liars and grifters wanted to divorce Europe from Russia, and have accomplished that goal although it probably will backfire come autumn and cold weather. Also take note that as soon as the $54 billion was approved and the envelops were passed out by the Congressional help, suddenly there were calls for a negotiated settlement. Maybe the Neocons can be permanently sidelined if all wars start with the MIC naming its price and the politicians getting their cuts up front. It is play money at this point, anyhow.
Which leads to:
“That has turned over another economic rock. The European economy has been revealed to be a house of cards. The sanctions regime is creating havoc for the Europeans, because their economy was based on the assumption that the Russians would always supply them with cheap necessities. The EU is a mommy economy where Mother Russia makes sure her babies are warm and fed. Shortages and spirally prices are bringing this reality home to Europeans.”
Mommy Russia has provided the cheap goodies and Daddy USA has locked the doors, set the alarms and kept watch at night. The question is whether empty bellies can overcome the comfort of Daddy playing the Big Meanie. My guess is not and NATO falls to pieces as Europeans decide they rather like heat and food.
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Funny how everything you read in the media about the Russian economy decried how small and inconsequential the Russian economy was before the war started. Now our “elites” are realizing food, energy, basic minerals, fertilizer and metals have something to do with how stuff gets to the grocery store, Amazon, into your gas tank and furnace. Guess cutting them off from our exports of social media influencers and McKinsey consultants wasn’t that effective.
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when have our intelligence services ever been right?
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The great walkback has begun; Kissinger earlier this week said the Ukraine will have to give up territory and now the Washington Post is admitting the Ukrainian army east of the Dnieper is about to get destroyed.
So what’s the next big freakout? Covid II: The Coviding flopped and its spinoff Monkeypox isn’t getting traction. My money’s on a meteor.
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So far the West has not come up with a new narrative for after the fall of Donbas. Maybe that comes in June. They may be waiting for Russia to reveal Phase III of the operation. Still, it is curious that they are not prepping a new narrative yet.
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Do you think once they take over the Donbass and landlock Ukraine whether they’ll fortify and declare victory with their newly acquired territory, or go for broke and keep pushing to get assurance of a fully neutral Ukraine?
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That is the question right now. The Russians have been clear about their goals. One was eliminate the ultranationalists, which was accomplished when they surrendered in Mariupol. The next was the liberation of Donetsk and Luhansk. That will probably be done in the next month, maybe sooner. The last objective was the neutrality of Ukraine.
It is clear that the Russians have no interest in returning Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south. Both are moving to the ruble and converting Ukrainian passports to Russian passports. They could easily take Odessa and Nikolaev, thus reducing Ukraine to a landlocked state. The trouble is if Washington tries to rebuild the Ukrainian army in the West to launch another round of shenanigans. The Russians may decide to preempt that possibility.
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Anne Applebaum is quite upset about this and demands we fight to the last goy. Has there ever been a more incompetent, moronic and consistently wrong bunch of fools than America’s self-proclaimed elites? Hey, Anne, in case you have forgotten, it is a grift. Or are you wanting a cut before the next carnival starts?
This one was and is serious due to the nuclear war angle. Maybe we can marginalize and possibly force these idiotic monsters out of the country this time if they don’t get us nuked?
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IMO the risk of nuclear conflict has been greatly diminished by Russia’s unalloyed success with conventional arms – as well as weathering the economic sanctions nicely.
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Yep. Russians also have been focused and shown great restraint and determination. The contrast with the West could not be greater. You are right about the economic brinkmanship, but when you look at the state of the Western economies it is no shock the people who came up with MMT would fuck up sanctions, too. Here in the USA, we have the spectacle of financial titans begging the Fed to stop increasing the interest rate because the hikes already have worked! These morons cannot thrive without a free money teat and we are all going to be much poorer as a result.
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> Anne Applebaum is quite upset about this and demands we fight to the last goy.
You first Anne.
Anyone who insists a foreign country they could not point to on a map a couple months ago should sacrifice hundreds of thousands of people to a futile war meat-grinder is a complete psychopath.
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It it weren’t for genocidal psychopaths The Atlantic would not have an editorial staff.
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Western leadership issue: “…unprepared for a world where they have to perform their role as elites. The war is exposing them as a toxic blend of self-indulgence, stupidity and ignorance”…
Western leadership response:
Look over there! Covid, no wait…Monkey Pox.
Behind that tree! White nationalist, nazi lovin’, gun toters.
Under the bed! Gay haters
Over there! It’s climate change. Give us more money.
Only D.I.E. can save us now.
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Indeed, the economic war turned out to be a huge self-inflicted wound, not unlike amputating your own leg by mistake.
Turns out an economy based on building real things, with real labor and real capital beats an economy based on hot air after all…
And no matter how much they try, they cannot put Humpty Dumpty together again.
Seems likely to me that this SMO marks the high water mark of the hegemony of the west.
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One of the strangest aspects of the Ukraine war is Ukraine’s complete and utter inability to produce any sort of effective counteroffensive. The only time Ukraine had regained control of large portions of land is when the Russians decided to withdraw their troops to focus elsewhere, not because of any pressure from Ukrainian forces.
In any aspect of human competition, whether it is business, sports, or war, the agent sitting back on its heels reacting to his adversary’s moves is at a huge disadvantage. It gives credence to the thought that Western leaders really don’t know how to react when an opposing force is adapting and showing an effective attack. Their go-to domestically is usually scorched Earth (see Canadian truckers and French riots), but this time their enemy has the same capability.
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Your definition of counter-offensive is so 2021. Zelensky has gone on how many United States award shows now? WINNING.
(This is not even total sarcasm)
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from what i have read, any time the ukes come out of a defensive crouch, and mass out in the open, they get slaughtered.
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It shows what dominating the air space can accomplish.
Russia, with it’s missiles and other air power needs to create just enough doubt in the minds of those who want to launch a counter offensive. [But really, the Russians largely have their back to the Kiev “front”, I would think that any sort of exerted effort could relive their trapped forces. But then again, maybe not.]
> One of the strangest aspects of the Ukraine war is Ukraine’s complete and utter inability to produce any sort of effective counteroffensive.
Dude, you can’t launch ANY kind of a counteroffensive when your opponent has air supremacy. You would get SLAUGHTERED!
Honestly, I think Ukraine’s “strategy” of “dig in and pray for NATO” is probably their best option.
Jared Taylor always takes a lot of stick from the “muh free market” types when he points out that communist and socialist countries didn’t succumb to the cultural and migrational decay that the supposedly free societies did. Lots of Westerners (and even those in the Eastern Bloc) sneered at the idea that the walls and checkpoints were there to protect the East from the decadent swine of the West, but there might be some truth to it. Coca-Cola is the ultimate Western product, sugary as apple pie but much easier to consume in compact measurable units, and even though they fought to get cokes in Czechoslovakia and East Germany, it really is just tooth-rotting, high-fructose corn syrup that reduces its victims to Rascal scooter-riding tubs of lard.
Another, maybe more important assumption we all sort of had in the West was that the cordon sanitaire imposed by these countries kept most information out, except for what samizdat could be mimeographed or whatever songs could be picked up on the pirate ham. But think about how hard we have to struggle to get good info now, how dangerous it would be to read a Greg Johnson or Greg Hood book in public. Turns out the media blanket forcefield thrown up by our system is a hell of a lot taller and grayer than the Wall. And you can scale a wall. It’s much harder to beat a signal constantly beaming bounced against the side of your head.
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Why am I suddenly thinking of the scene with Dr. Evil revealing that he will demand One. Million. Dollars.
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Its hard to find solid information on the war, I read the Sakers site but he’s clearly too pro Russian to admit any failure or mistake by Moscow. but the Western media is far worse, the war was about 2 weeks old when they started saying the Russian army was low on food and weapons, 3 months later the Russians are still fighting and the BS in the MSM continues. a while back Zalenskyy admitted he was losing 50 to 100 men a day (I wonder what the real number is) at that rate at some point the Ukrainian army will just collapse, I assume, but who knows. I think Putin wants to take Odessa, that battle could be worse than Mariupol, the Russians just keep grinding on
Watched a video on youtube the other day, if the info is correct the Russian BMP troop carriers are pretty useless, close to zero protection, they have a more modern solution but have not produced it in large numbers yet
The lunatics in DC are now planning on sending long range missiles to the Ukraine, the Russians will have no choice but to escalate
Petrol is €2 a litre ($7.6 a gallon) where I live now, people are getting really pissed off, next winter will be even more interesting, even if its a mild winter, Natural gas prices will hurt everyone, except the Russians
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