The shadow that has hung over the Ukraine war is the fear that it could lead to a direct clash between Washington and Moscow. Given that both sides have large arsenals of nuclear weapons, conflict could lead to Armageddon. Compounding things is the fact that Biden cannot stop talking about nuclear war. Given his mental condition, this suggests that he is often in earshot of the decision makers, who may be seriously discussing the possible use of nuclear weapons.
The dynamic of the war thus far has been Washington poking Moscow hoping for a response, which it can use to justify escalation. First, they said that they would not supply Ukraine with Western weapons, then they sent Western weapons. Then it was long range guided missiles. Now we see modern tanks being prepped, with discussions about F-16 fighter jets on the agenda. All of these weapons transfers are intended to provoke a response from Moscow.
The proof of that is the fact that none of these systems can make a difference on the battlefield for a number of reasons. The biggest reason is that the West has designed its weapons to be used in combined arms warfare. Alone, these weapons are not terribly useful and may even be a hinderance to the Ukrainians. The M777 howitzer, for example, is known for being maintenance heavy. Giving the Ukrainians these weapons just adds to their onerous sustainment burden.
Of course, the “cry out in pain as you strike” tactic is the regime default. This is used domestically and internationally. It goes back a long time. In his ongoing criticism of Washington with regards to the war in Ukraine, Douglas Macgregor likes to remind people that the Roosevelt administration did everything it could to bait the Japanese into launching an attack on American assets. They needed a reason to get into the war and that was viewed as the best avenue.
When you combine the psychological instability of the people running the war for the regime and the long history of provoking adversaries, the prospects of a nuclear holocaust start to look better or worse, depending upon your perspective. If the usual suspects stick to their usual patterns, it means they will keep provoking the Russians until they get the desired response. That desired response will justify some further provocation eventually leading to all out war.
The first question to answer here is what response from Russia would warrant a direct attack on Russia by NATO? The obvious answer is an attack on NATO. This is why the Poles rushed to the nearest microphone demanding war with Russia when the Ukrainian missile landed on Polish territory. The Polish president knew the plan and assumed it was go time. It turned out to be a Ukrainian missile, but the incident confirmed the thinking within the West.
Assuming the Kagan cult has concluded they need a Russian attack on a NATO country in order to launch their nuclear war, what would the West have to do in order to provoke such an attack by the Russians? That is turning out to be a tough question to answer, given what the West has done thus far. Russian people have been attacked in NATO countries like Estonia. Russian assets have been seized. The West even engineered the assassination of Alexander Dugan’s daughter.
Over the last year, the West has done a number of things that would justify a response, but so far the Russians have been careful to avoid the trap. The closest they have come to a direct retaliation was the missile barrage after the Brits set off the truck bomb on the Kerch Bridge in the Crimea. Given that the missile attacks on the Ukrainian power grid have continued, that may have been a coincidence. The missile barrage would have required advanced planning.
The fact is time is on Russia’s side and they know it. Every day this war goes on drains the West of vital resources. The Pentagon is already making noises about the Ukraine war harming its ability to deal with China. The war has also exposed the fact that Europe has let its militaries and arms production go to seed. Germany, France and Britain no longer have a military for all practical purposes. It will take them years to fix the problems, even if they find the will to do so.
If the Russian have a very high tolerance for provocation, then the question flips around to the other side. What limit is there in Washington? Where is the line that the people running policy in the Biden will not cross? Given that regime players have been gleefully talking about “de-colonizing Russia” for the last year, it is hard to imagine a red line that they would not dare cross. If you are bragging about your plans to regime change Russia, you probably have no red lines.
Now, there is another angle here. This could all be the result of a bluff that has badly backfired on Washington. The initial taunts before the war were not intended to bait the Russians into launching their operation, but were a bluff. The subsequent economic sanctions and arms shipments were a further bluff. Washington was telling Moscow that they were in it for the long haul and would stuff Ukraine with arms. The hope was that Moscow would reconsider and retreat.
It is entirely possible that the Global American Empire is facing a catastrophe in Ukraine because the Russians called their bluff. It is also possible that the Russia misread the signals coming from the West. Given the mistakes they made early in the war, it could simply be the Russians read things the wrong way. They not only did not see it as a direct threat to intervene, they assumed it was just the usual hot air. One side was bluffing while the other side did not see the bluff.
Either way, once things got going the regime seems to have fallen into a form of the sunk cost fallacy. They invest in new bluffing strategies in order to save the investment in the previous failed bluffing strategy. At this point, the Russians know the limitations of the West in terms of time and material. The huffing and puffing from the West is seen as a bluff, one that can easily be ignored. Will Washington accept this reality or pivot to some desperate action?
That last question could decide the fate of the world. At this point it is clear that the Ukrainians cannot win. The death toll is staggering. The Russians cannot be bluffed or bullied, so what does Washington do next? Do they try one last desperate attempt to provoke the Russians into something foolish? Are there any sane people left in Washington who can step in and stop this madness? The fate of the world may rest on the mental stability of the crazies who started the war.
Regardless, it appears that the neocon scheme to de-colonize Russia is reaching a denouement in the coming months. Ukraine is running out of men to throw into the meat grinder and the West is running out of machines. The war will end in 2023, but how it ends is the question. Can Washington find some way to strike a deal with Russia that Russia will accept? Have the Russians concluded that no deal can be made with such untrustworthy people? We will know soon.
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First, I enjoy essays on this war because it strokes my bias against the NATO grift. So thank you. I do hope this ends sooner rather than later and with a light shone upon the corruption.
Second, can anyone explain why “the” is put in front of everything involving Ukraine? The Ukraine, The Donbas, The Crimea. Feels like The Ohio Stare University. Just curious.
5
The word Ukraine would translate into English as borderland, so English speakers put the definite article before the word Ukraine. The same is true for Crimea and Donbas. In many languages, place names are descriptions, rather than proper names. When you translate a foreign word that means “place with the big rock in the middle” the definite article is used, or it used to be that way. If the word for “place with the big rock in the middle” is garblenock, then in English it becomes the Garblenock.
2
Garblenock. I think I found the name for a stray cat that’s been hanging around my property.
2
Sobering words indeed.
1
What about the Rand report that came out a couple of days ago that seems to suggest some schism in the “elite” thinking on the possibilities (or lack there) of victory and perhaps getting out while the getting is good? Frankly, I can’t see the Russians negotiating with the corrupt, lying US government.
7
It would be like Lucy finally letting Charlie Brown kick the football.
They just don’t have it in them.
1
My read is the MIC is getting worried, so they contracted RAND to get those worries into the bloodstream of policy makers. It seems that the MIC accepted as true the claims of the neocon about the weaknesses of Russia before the war. Like a fighter prepped to exploit the weakness of an opponent, only to learn that the opponent has addressed that weakness, the MIC is very worried that they are in a fight they cannot win.
The problem they have is Biden has no control over his own policies or his bowels. Blinken and Nuland are running foreign policy and they do not care what the MIC has to say about any of this. That may be why we are seeing German generals sound the alarm over weapons transfers and Ukrainian losses. Who knows? Maybe this FBI investigation of Biden is a plot to replace him with someone that will shut down the Kagan cult.
9
The MIC has enormous supply chain issues it refuses to admit, especially when it comes to integrated circuits going obsolete.
Yup, when ole shitpants hits the red button, instead of launching any nukes, it will just change the channel on his TV.
From CNN to MSNBC.
4
For at least thirty years, the MIC has worked under the assumption that it would never face high intensity warfare and it would never face a well armed and supplied opponent. The Soviet Union was gone and China was all about making money. That left small players on the fringes who would need a beating once in a while.
The MIC understands this, but the political class does not. The question though is even if the political class wakes up to this reality, can they do anything about it? In order to transform the military into a force that could plausibly match the Russians in a land war and the Chinese in a sea war, it would require a radical transformation of the American economy. There is no way the financial class goes along with that idea.
3
An additional issue for the MIC is the allegiance of US forces once they see all the fancy equipment burning in fields in Eastern Ukraine. There has been *a lot* of effort put into survivability over the past two decades. If that’s shown to be a Potemkin Tank, the motivation of Mothers of America sending their kids off to fight is gone. Next step, draft.
The shot callers(the ones who don’t run for office but control those who do), are evil, sociopathic psychopaths.
Decolonize Russia? Say what it is. They want the resources in that part of the world, and on top of it all, a bunch of straight, white Christians control it.
They will not abide in that!
As for striking a deal, the GAE can not be trusted. If Russia does “make a deal”, they will deserve the subsequent ass hammering that will be the result.
6
Not going to happen…Putin would be removed from office if he tried…The Russian public wants blood at this point.
4
“As for striking a deal, the GAE can not be trusted.”
Forget the GAE thing – ask the red men how ‘trusting’ the Federals worked out. One solemn treaty after another. Indian chiefs making the long trip to the (then) imperial capitol for a photo op.
Before the ink was even dry, renege on so-called treaty. Grasp at more land, more resources. Eventually, red men end up in open-air concentration camps.
That’s before we even get to these modern camps, aka “Sun City”. The oldsters live in Camp Manzanar, and don’t know if CUS THERE’S POTTERY CLASSES and pickle ball.
2
This is looking more like a war on Ukraine by the U.S. The infrastructure is getting gutted more each day, tens of thousands of young men dying on the battlefield, and millions leaving the country. What then? Well, Zelensky has had talks with Black Rock about reconstructing the country after all of this. Sounds like the Soviet Union after the collapse and corrupt oligarchs taking over and establishing their governances. Lots going to get rich here just as it was then.
That’s one way to explain this because it’s obvious the war can’t go well otherwise for Nato. Russia just lets it’s enemies bleed out all their high tech military equipment. Jets and tanks given to a country without the personnel to operate them ? Where can this possibly end up. If one was truly “for Ukraine” this would not be prosecuted like this.
Putin must feel pretty good about now looking at his chessboard.
7
I thought the US was doubling down in Ukraine to protect the biolabs Nuland admitted to and all the investments that firms like Blackrock and Monsanto hold there?
Correct.
Say what you want about Putler – he is a stone cold statesman and strategist. Were he an American politico rather than Russian… the Biden’s, the Clinton’s, the Obuttholes, and the Bush crime families would have been liquidated decades ago. He will not be goaded into anything – he will simply react to threats in the most practical manner possible.
This will not go nuclear. It will end with our leaders looking foolish and stupid, and frantically casting about for a new Current Thing.
4
I can’t agree.
Our leaders are so dumb they will pull a John Travolta in Broken Arrow and shriek, “F ’em if they can’t take a joke!” just before they push the big, red button.
1
They will need a scapegoat. I wonder who? My guess would be Biden.
Russia really has been patient. They know we are a collapsing empire looking for a way to go out with a bang instead of a whimper. So they have declined all the opportunities for escalation so far while grinding away in the Ukraine. Hope that continues. Our own collapse is imminent either way.
5
I think China and Russia want to manage the end of the empire. Indian and the Saudis seem to have signed onto the project. A sudden collapse of the empire, like what happened with the soviet Union, would be catastrophic. Whether a controlled demolition is possible, given the makeup of the ruling class of the empire, is unknown.
13
Hrmmmmmmmm. Astute.
The Chinese especially cannot afford to see its markets in America implode. Their economy is built on the same house of cards plan that ours is.
Compare and contrast with Putler’s economic model: they dispensed with the jewish banksters, tied the Ruble to the gold standard, and are forging a new empire with actual rules and stability. Comparing that mindset to that of Globohomo Inc… and theirs is the third most powerful currency in the world and they are beginning to turn nice profits…. So this only ends one way.
6
China is locked into the GAE economy more than Russia is, much more. So they will feel the pain of an American collapse for sure. However, China is turning inward. They have basically stolen all they can steal, and copied all they can copy. They can now run a pretty decent civilization with what they took from the West. Furthermore, in living memory, Chinese remember poverty and suffering. What they have now is far better that what they had, even 20 years ago, so they can tolerate a backslide in living standards.
But Americans are soft. They have been living in comfort and relative peace for a long, long, long time. Going back to even 1993 standards would be a disaster for many. It would turn our cities into zoos real quick.
And when I say “Americans” I bet you all think White. Of course Whites are sliding below 60% of the population. That is the demographic that has been living in comfort and peace. Blacks and Hispanics have not. They will weather the collapse much better than the White man. Unfortunately. What does that mean? I don’t know. But all those suburban potatoes are in for a hell of a shock.
I’m surprised we haven’t seen more incidents of wetwork surface, ala Seth Rich.
Or maybe they are hiding in plain sight, concealed in the background noise of all kinds of folks, “dying suddenly?”
“the West has done a number of things that would justify a response, but so far the Russians have been careful to avoid the trap.”
—
Just to note, that Russian level of patience would have served the Germans and Japanese well in another age. Much as the tyrants of old just couldn’t help themselves, the Russian chess masters can.
As Z notes though, how about our tyrants, can they help themselves? Their redemption may come from the fact that even a tool like General Miley knows that there is no way for their schemes to work.
4
“60 Bradley’s loaded onto onto the Arc Integrity, left the port of North Charleston, South Carolina to be delivered to Ukraine “
It’s like the US is providing a target list to the Russian navy, begging them to sink it.
The real question is, “Will the Americans sink it, if the Russians don’t?”
7
Will NATO come up with a peace deal that the Russians can accept? After the confessions by Merkel and Hollande that the Minsk treaty was a sham to enable arming the Ukraine, absolutely not…The Russians will proceed until they have destroyed the Ukraine’s army, wiped out the Nazis, and established enforceable borders…
5
The only peace deal I see if Russia keeps what they currently occupy and the Ukrainian army is completely dismantled, making the country a no-go zone for NATO and Russia. NATO has been too bad faith for any other agreement.
Zelensky will need to be sleeping with the fishes before that happens though.
2
The thing to watch is the ongoing purges in Kiev over alleged corruption. The CIA chief went there and all of a sudden Zelensky is concerne3d about corruption. Not only did he purge a bunch of senior people, he is now investigating one of his benefactors, and guy named Ihor Kolomoyskyi. I wonder if the CIA is not setting Zelensky up to be killed by his own people.
Let’s say Zelensky gets killed. Washington could try to blame the Russians or maybe they blame some faction, like the ultranationalists that they do not like. This provides the excuse to halt money transfers and weapons. This puts the political situation into chaos, which would result in a collapse of the army or maybe the army simply turning on Kiev.
The Russians are then left to impose whatever peace they see fit. The West gripes about it, but they can do nothing. The neocons are sent back to plot new crimes against humanity. This is sort of what happened when Obama pulled the plug on the Iraq occupation and abandoned the war on Iran strategy.
2
However the mess in Ukraine turns out, Zelenskyy is a dead man. And he knows it.
Macgregor is awesome. Dunno what to think about Ritter. According to his detractors, he’s a pedo. But given the Establishment’s penchant for framing and smearing it’s detractors this way…I dunno whether to believe it or not. Ritter has been a PITA for the Neocon war machine since forever. FWIW… he does have “crazy eyes” like you see on a lot of the more odious and obnoxious female politicos…
4
I have watched a couple of videos of men being pressed into service by the Ukrainian army. The men had gray hair. I interpret this as a real shortage of fighting age men.
I think the Israeli bombing of Iran might be a further indication that the war is going badly for Ukraine. It looks like The US gave the Israelis the green light to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites if they also hit the drone factories that are supplying Russia. I’d like to see some analysis of this by those better informed than me.
2
Ukraine just announced that it is mobilizing that who have been deemed physically unfit for service, so yeah, they are running out of people to send to the front.
2
Great! A Ukrainian Volkssturm. We all know how THAT ended.
1
We know the people running the GAE are insane based on Nuland’s trip to Moscow to threaten Putin directly. That incident was also a giveaway as to who is really in charge of the GAE.
That said, every indication is that the GAE is preparing Poland to be the next proxy in line to face down Russia to provoke them so NATO can invoke Article V.
The main wrench I see in that plan is that Poland may have a few hundred thousand bodies, but where will they source the gear and ammo to equip them?
1
Who among us can predict or influence the outcome in the Ukraine. Best spend your waking moments and brain cycles thinking about one selves and family. Here’s a primer…
https://science.howstuffworks.com/radiation-sickness1.htm
If there is no war, you have learned some amusing trivia. If there is, you have a leg up on the un-prepared. Keep one of these under your sink, and when used, keep the dust off of it… https://waterbob.com/
1
1
Every time I look at DC, I think of that scene at the Do Long Bridge from “Apocalypse Now.” “Where’s the CO?” “I thought you were the CO!” “Man, there ain’t no f*ckin’ CO.”
Acknowledging the likelihood of at least some wishcasting here (as terrifying as that is), I don’t think they actually have a plan, or ever did. The Kagan cult wants to bait Russia into war, but they don’t control the actual resources that could make that happen (Victoria Nuland can’t order a nuclear strike on her own authority). The Pentagon probably doesn’t want war, but they do want a whole bunch of shiny new toys to play with, so why not dump the old ones on the Ukes? The defense contractors and Wall Street are of course cool with this, and so’s the Big Guy (provided he gets his 10% of course), energy companies love it because they can sell price-gouged LNG to Europe, and so on.
In short, everyone is working only for his immediate short-term advantage. All this stuff happens on Zoom and Twitter, and since these are the kind of people who believe Twitter is real life, it never occurs to them that the enemy gets a vote, too, as do the poor bastards dying in the trenches (I have a very hard time believing the Ukrainian army hasn’t mutinied yet; it’s a real testament to the courage and patriotism of the Ukrainian soldier, though of course if they did and it was suppressed we’d never hear about it).
They’re just flailing around. Everyone is running his own best scam, and they’re so busy scamming each other that they never look up.
5
We are entering the post wiz bang military era that has reigned supreme for the last 50+ years. When a $10,000.00 missile can shoot down your $1,000,000.00 missile, cheap technology has leveled the playing field. Does anyone doubt, as an example, that aircraft carriers are now nothing more than a $13,000,000,000.00 target? Can the US military shift? They’ve done it before, but then again they’ve never been THIS clownish before.
3
The Russians will not back down. The situation is similar to a a chess master facing a tyro who comes at him with a premature assault with queen, bishop, and knight. If the master keeps his cool, he can easily repulse the attack and go on to win. The one thing the master won’t do is resign the game.
It’s not only Biden who’s brain dead but the neocon establishment. And their deep-seated problem is they’ve never been in a situation of sustained conflict with a peer, where judgement, patience, and delicate maneuvering was required. The incompetence of this establishment is only equaled by its hubris. This sucker’s going down. I’m fatalistic about this. One way or another US hegemony is over — even if it involves a nuclear conflagration that wipes out me and my family.
4
There was always tension between the US State Department and the Pentagon regarding the war in Ukraine. The recent RAND report brought this into full public eye. Briefly stated, the Kagan Cult at State wants to continue to flood Ukraine with all sorts of weaponry and mercenaries, believing that Russia will eventually agree to negotiate. The Pentagon sees the Ukraine war as a losing proposition and a dreadful waste of US resources that will be needed in an upcoming war with China.
I doubt that State can win this argument even with the full cooperation of the 3-letters. A Pentagon victory will delay any possible nuclear war for another year.
Incidentally Z-Man, I once saw the decline of the US as resembling the decline of the Western Empire that began in 180 or so. I have now come around to your view that it more resembles the decline of the Athenian Empire. It seems the US has already entered her Peloponnesian War phase, passed her Melian Dialogue and is on her way to her own Sicilian Expedition.
Fun times directly ahead.
4
Yeah, NATO sure is looking like the Delian League these days, isn’t it?
On the one hand, the MIC and Biden have committed so much American prestige to “victory” in Ukraine that it seems nearly impossible for them to back down now without severe geopolitical consequences. On the other hand, the whole world just watched us walk out of Afghanistan after spending a sum of money which makes the Uke aid seem trivial in comparison.
So apparently, our MIC/Pres have a teenage girl’s emotional state and decision-making apparatus. Therefore anything is possible.
The RAND report is obviously the Pentagon’s attempt to “nip in the bud” any plan to intervene directly or protract the conflict. We have to remember that as many military careers were ruined as were helped in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yes the MIC made money, but for serving officers, it was a 50/50 proposition. Senior active-duty types would rather talk than fight actual Russians after having been fought to a standstill by goatherds.
The “game theory” solution for General officers in the Pentagon is to negotiate. Why? Because the Politicos will blame senior officers for the very likely Uke defeat if we go “all-in”. Any unlikely victory would be hogged by the Politicos. Meanwhile, the peacetime “learnings” from the proxy war (drones, LR missiles, ISR enhanced capability) will be incorporated into MIC budgets for years to come, helping all kinds of Pentagon types without risking careers.
4
This is about the time that a sane country would stage a military coup to overthrow a broken government and avoid catastrophe. Since our own military has taken to wearing dresses, crashing ships over lover’s tiffs, and poisoning crews with jet fuel, I am worried.
2
Lover’s tiff? Lol, what was that about? If it’s been major news, sorry, been off grid with the kids.
First, there is nothing that an individual citizen can do to change the dynamics in DC, even when it becomes obvious that the Biden Administration is lurching toward a nuclear war with Russia. Don’t believe the Bongino bullshit about voting harder or calling your congressman; they only genuflect to their donors and handlers. Instead, use your time and effort to make yourself as survivable as possible. Get out of the big city (ground zero), find or create a safe haven far from primary target zones, stock it with essentials, and have a plan to get there on short notice. Following a nuclear exchange, there will be many survivors (it will not the end of all life on the planet), but the deadweight of society will fall by the wayside very quickly. You’re going to need toughness and ingenuity to keep going.
Europe will be a leading edge indicator of the potential alternative scenario to US-driven escalation into a final face-off. Likely one of these countries will decide (in desperation) to implement an immediate change in political leadership (the old fashion way). If so, this could trigger a wave reaction elsewhere and send a message to DC about pushing the Crazy too far. We can only hope.