Looks like the Apple Watch is a dud.

The Apple Watch was supposed to be the next magical product from the gadget maker. Not so fast, says Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest in a note to clients.

Hargreaves Tuesday cut his forecast for Apple Watch sales in the current fiscal year from 11 million to 10.5 million. That might not sound like much of a reduction, but he warns the bigger letdown will come next fiscal year due to “soft follow-on sales.” The analyst says the company will sell just 21 million watches in fiscal 2016, down from the earlier 24 million estimate.

“Anecdotal evidence suggests Apple Watch demand is slowing quickly,” according to Hargreaves’ note. “This dovetails with recent supply checks, which suggested a reduction in component order volume.”

The report is the latest data point indicating investors and developers need to downscale their expectations from this new gadget. In early May, brokerage firm UBS cut its fiscal 2016 forecast for Apple Watch sales – even calling the launch of the product “somewhat botched.”

This was not hard to call. You can slap the Apple logo on a turd and sell 20 million iTurds to idiot fanbois who think owning one makes them smart. The trouble is there’s no real need for a watch computer.

The FitBit is a cheap option for health nuts. It does all of the things you could possibly want from a fitness tracking device. It is durable, it does not need to be charged every five minutes and it does not need your phone to work properly. It’s still a waste of money, but it’s cheap so you won’t feel bad leaving it in a drawer once the novelty wears off.

The Microsoft Band is better than the Apple Watch and half the price. Paying an extra $10 a month for an iPhone is one thing. Paying $400 for a wearable that does nothing is another thing altogether. Again, the Microsoft offering is cheap enough to be a toy you won’t regret abandoning when the novelty wears off.

The thing with Apple is they have largely rode the success of the iPod for 15 years now. It was clever marketing and a novel, minimalist design that got the managerial classes using it as a signaling devise Steve Jobs was a great pitch man, turning Apple into a movement, rather than a bad electronics maker. We forget that until the iPod, their products were mostly junk.

I’m sure people will take exception to that last bit, but it is true. The main reason Microsoft crushed Apple in the 90’s is Apple made expensive boutique computers that were unreliable. Business went for cheap and predictable. It was not until Apple abandon their own OS and went with a Unix variant that their computers became reliable.

Regardless, Apple relies on phone sales entirely and phones have reached their end, as far as innovation. They are becoming a commodity as happens with all consumer electronics. Tablets, untethered from the wireless carriers, are already in commodity range. I got one free the other day.

A generation from now kids will look at holograms of their parents holding Apple products and laugh in the same way kids today laugh at photos of their parents wearing thin ties in the 80’s. Steve Jobs will be the Tom Jones of this era.