Back during the Cold War, there were people whose job was to figure out what was happening inside the Soviet government. Many were like F.B.I. profilers, in that they were hyped as experts, but just made up stuff to play the role. Others actually tried to read party media to figure out what was happening. These Kremlinologists were well-versed in the “Aesopian language” popular with both dissidents and party officials, so they could connect external clues to internal clues.
One of the many signs that America is authoritarian is that we have to use the same tactics to figure out what is happening with the ruling elite. The uniparty members are mostly just making noises to impress the faction leaders. They are the dancing boys of the American regime. Still, they give a sense of the mood within the factions. The media gives a sense of what is happening with party leadership, especially the semi-permanent elements within the security branches.
This is where the Afghanistan story is useful. There is no denying that it is an embarrassment to the regime. The Biden people were selling this as a smooth transition out of an untenable situation. Instead, they got images of people fleeing for their lives as the Taliban swoops in to capture the capital. The people who say optics don’t matter were once again reminded that they are missing a chromosome. Even in authoritarian regimes, optics count for a great deal, even if it just inside the party.
There is some speculation that elements within the regime were opposed to pulling out of Afghanistan and may have sabotaged the effort. There is evidence that the Pentagon and State Department were opposed, but there are no signs they plotted the collapse of the Afghan government. If they were that clever, they would have figured out how to avoid this in the first place. Instead, this is probably just more of the 4-D chess nonsense that has become popular on-line.
Instead, the media reports suggest those semi-permanent elements within the regime knew Afghanistan was a house of cards and they were prepared to pin the blame on the elected elements of the regime. CNN, of all places, is unloading on the Biden people for their incompetency. The NY Times and Washington Post are taking the neocon line and attacking Biden for leaving the “Afghan allies” to die. This open letter to the White House is like Pravda condemning Kremlin policy in the old days.
The question is why did the Biden people push forward with a policy they knew the rest of the party opposed? This is where you may have some 4-D chess, in that there may be a third man in the relationship. Clearly, the Biden people did not see this coming, so they must have been getting bogus advice from the Pentagon and State Department or at least elements within those silos. Maybe this a way to discredit the foreign policy establishment to justify sweeping changes.
This is the clue in the Biden speech. He made clear that this move was about closing the door on the past to repositioning for the future. That is coded language to mean the old Bush era foreign policy is dead or that is the plan. Coupled with the quiet abandonment of Ukraine, the old neocon obsession with their old demons will no longer be the priority of the new foreign policy. Given the infestation of neocons in regime media, this would explain the media attacks on Biden over Afghanistan.
The new foreign policy will focus on China. Little reported during all the excitement of removing Trump and installing Biden is that the Biden people have embraced the Trump China policy with few changes. They are enforcing the trade polices imposed by Robert Lighthizer during the Trump years and doing so aggressively. They are following the Trump position on the genocide in Xinjiang, which is a big deal. They have also allowed US representatives to travel to Taiwan without special permission.
The stakes could not be any higher in this intra-party conflict. The crusades against Islam have been very lucrative for the military industrial complex, both in financial opportunities as well as prestige. A trade war with China is not as sexy for them and not as remunerative. The State Department, of course, is geared to fight the old enemies so a sea change in priorities is very bad for business. For example, having old relatives in Ukraine is suddenly less important than Chinese language skills.
It is too soon to tell how this will unfold. Old regimes get loud, preachy and impervious to contrary facts. We see that with the American regime. The factions are led by fossils from a bygone era. We see the elected side on television, but the leadership of the other factions is just as ossified. They may be younger than the elected leaders, but their minds are frozen in time. No one in party leadership seems to be aware of what is happening outside the strongholds of the regime.
One possibility is that Afghanistan is treated like the party treated Khrushchev’s handling of Cuba in the 1960’s. The party was happy to treat the affair as a disaster, so they could remove him from office. We are already hearing whispers that Biden’s fragile state is the cause of the Afghan debacle. The disappearance of Harris the last few months is another clue. Taking her out of the spotlight keeps her clean and allows everyone to forget about her being an obnoxious idiot.
All we can know at this point is that the regime is very fragile right now. On the one side is a faction locked in the past and staffed by incompetents. They were the people who spent 20 years creating the new Afghanistan. On the other side is the gerontocracy desperately trying to cling to life. Then you have the new vibrant young guns who want to show off what their learned in grievance studies. There is deep tension within the American ruling regime that promises to get worse.
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this is what makes me optimistic that this whole mask bs finally goes away. The regime is so incompetent that eventually – the covidians get ignored and stop wearing masks themselves.
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I am a skeptic on the Biden 4-D chess theory. There is no impression there is anyone close enough to him to pull something like this off. There was a video last week of Biden staggering into the White House unable to follow Secret Service instructions on where to walk. That the White House believed Kabul would hold for 90 days or more because of what the military told them is more likely. These people lied to Trump about troop deployments, would Biden seriously think he could force reform on them? If he forces out Milley before the end of the year then maybe they mean it.
If this is the top cannibalizing itself, well, that’s a relief.
I’m with Whiskey, who said “do not underestimate the danger” to the Dirt People.
I was afraid that instead of a false flag- that comes later with Kamala- that the suffering in Kabul is the shiny object to distract, while the Powers concoct some mighty Covid wickedness to lay down on us.
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The Afghanistan debacle is also an indication of how much at least some in the regime believe their own bullshit. I seriously doubt that anyone in the Biden Regime actually thought that the ‘New Afghanistan” would take off and thrive, but they obviously thought that there would be a “decent interval” to use an old Nixonian phrase of a year or so before the fall. Instead, the whole thing collapsed with a rapidity that made Saigon 1975 look like a cross between the Alamo and Stalingrad. Obviously, no one expected this in the Administration, but almost every Afghan vet has been predicting this, or something like it, for at least the last ten years. A serious disconnect from reality, to say the least
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If the motive behind dropping Afghanistan like a hot potato was to refocus on China, I would actually agree with that. I think China is a threat but it puts me in the weird position of being a dissident who happens to agree w the regime. Same if the Ukraine is dropped. Modern grand strategy is obviously not ‘Risk’ or ‘Axis & Allies’ boardgames. But any look at the map tells you that if China is your principal opponent, you want to get sweet with Russia. In a weird way it looks a little like the WW2 map redone on the other, eastern, side of Eurasia, w ‘Germany’ now more than 10 times as big as last time and Japan as ‘England with a funny language’ and perhaps India to add demographic ballast to Russia, ie ‘The Third Ching Chong Reich’s’ rear front. So dropping the Ukraine makes sense.
TBH I almost feel more comfortable w the regime doing things I wholly oppose or think make no sense than to do things I would have suggested if America were a sound, functioning and happy place. Agreeing with a bogus administration brought on by a bogus election, that’s less complicated.
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* MORE complicated, at the end
China IS a potential threat. Theirs is a house of cards, much like our own. When they fall, anything can happen.
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Agree and they are tilting around right now like a drunk giant in a bar, starting fights left and right. When Chairman Xi and friends feel cornered, who knows how they might lash out?? A nice little nationalistic war somewhere that spirals out of control, like the First World War. It was supposed to have been a punishment of Serbia, or so they thought.
Z is right about the Ukraine. Even Regime folks, maybe especially Regime folks, are tired of hearing Judeo-Bolshevik neurotics complaining about “the Cossacks raped my grandmother.”
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One of my local restaurant ran out of supplies. You weren’t allowed to order a large or half the menu. This was a major chain. The lots at my local car dealerships are increasingly empty.
May you live in interesting times.
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“They were the people who spent 20 years creating the new Afghanistan….”
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Not so. The Conservative Inc. is (sometimes) not as dumb as you think. The ‘hearts and minds’ style of warfare was invented by them to sell the war to peaceniks on the left at the time, and offer lucrative opportunity to their jewry. It might possibly have been the first step toward building the uniparty as it stands today. They all had a hand in it.
the new afghanistan is wherever the millions of new afghani refugees will settle into europe. If you can’t bring democracy into muslim word then bring muslim world into democratic countries, lol. I assume the muslim rape gangs will quadruple in the near future, I can already hear Zion Tv demanding europeans to welcome afghani men into their homes cause they were forced to flee from war or some bullshit.
This is actually the main reason why I’m not so confident in the great reset plan. The chaos of the future will be so great in its scope how the fuck do they think they’re gonna create order out of it? Some skinny arm corporate soybois & their talmudist buddies think they can bring their own utopia out of all this, what a joke.
I can’t say I’m embarrassed for the US or Biden. Not my people, not my president, not my fight.
My fellow citizens who spent time in Afghanistan fall into the same category as our involvement in Lebanon and my friends who were stationed in Somalia
We went into Lebanon to get a close up look at a civil war, locals murdered our marines while the slept, we left.
We went into Somalia to feed starving Africans. Stayed to get a close up view of a civil war. Africans killed American peacekeepers, we left.
We went into Afghanistan to get Bin Laden, we screwed around for 15 years, killed him in Pakistan (?) and then screwed around for another 5 years. Then we left.
In the 60’s, our nation took all sorts of counter productive actions. We also built nuclear reactors, hypersonic aircraft, spacecraft and microchips.
In the 2020’s we invented martial law for a new cold, the face burka for children and Snapface.
Faster, please.
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The Jewish regime with its Brahmin junior partners failed in Afghanistan. I don’t care at all. Not my problem, as you said. Let some wall street bankers suit up and go fight Muslims, if they care so much.
The Jewish DHS secretary is now letting in millions of aliens from Mexico, from every shithole in Latin America, and even Senegal and other random places. That is a big problem.
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Some swings and misses here. To the misses:
“CNN, of all places, is unloading on the Biden people for their incompetency. The NY Times and Washington Post are taking the neocon line and attacking Biden for leaving the “Afghan allies” to die.”
This was both a colossal intelligence and military disaster, actually far worse and empire-ending than the Suez crisis. CNN is basically a mouthpiece for the intelligence community, and the Times and Post for the Judeo-MIC. There are stories floating around that the intelligence services secretly warned this would happen, and all that ordinance left in the field would not have happened if “X” had been done. These are all lies, and as incompetent and corrupt as Biden is, the IC and Judeo-MIC were far, far worse. Israel is not long for it now, to use blunt language. Taiwan, of course, is a dead man walking.
Harris is freaking loathed inside most elements of the regime. That they ever thought she was anything other than a stupid whore speaks to their low intellect, but the whisper campaign against her indicates they know now. Even puppets require a modicum of ability.
The State Department has been staffed by ignorant bimbos and low IQ minorities for generations now. Many actually believed the bullshit about Afghanistan becoming the next Japan or Germany because they are that stupid. It is one department that only can get better, however marginally, with mass firings.
The Soviet Union lasted two or three years after it left Afghanistan in a far more orderly, dignified manner. The USSA looks even shakier within just days of its inglorious humiliation.
Your last graf is were you connect and hit it out of the park. The factionalism involves dimwitted incompetents in all camps, and they can barely muster the ability to piss on one another. Either Harris or Biden will suffer something soon that forces them to exit. It had seemed Biden was the patsy short-timer, but it would be no shock if the shiv goes between the Ho’s blades.
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I was thinking of the “triple Lindy” when reading “Either Harris or Biden will suffer something soon that forces them to exit.” and said to myself “the first double Epstein”.
We’re entering the fast-change cycle now, and that means that disparate “crises” will begin cascading one on top of an another. This week may be all about Afghanistan, but next week could be another “deadly” COVID variant, then something financial like a major bankruptcy or bank run, then perhaps another mini-war in some Third World backwater, then another Las Vegas type shooter incident, then a Black Swan event, etc. The purpose is to drive people into a high state of anxiety and keep them distracted & focused on television news programs. People with real jobs will pull into cocoons of self-absorption, while others with way-too-much-time-on-their-hands will start agitating for “someone” to “do something.” Don’t be the deer in the headlights. Get busy now. Get out of the city. Find a safe haven. Disappear.
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Be thankful that that America has something left in the tank., for now.
One covid case just arose in New Zealand and crazy lady PM locked down the whole country. Australia just a little less. Female panic and male submissiveness everywhere.
I care about Afghanistan because I know a marine that flew into Kabul a couple days ago and until he’s out safely I care. I also care that the Afghans managed to overthrow the invading Force and throw out the occupiers of their country so good for them I would like to do the same thing. Beyond that I don’t really care, I don’t see how it could have been anything but a debacle. We’ve had ample proof for decades that our ruling class is filled with incompetents riding on the coattails of past success. They think that they can do anything because the people before them were so incredibly competent that they have never known anything but stability and seemed to be incapable of realizing that is an exception not a norm.
The struggle over foreign policy is indicative of the larger struggle within the Uniparty.
As Z noted, you have the old guard that still views the world through the lens of 1980s and 1990s, both domestically and for foreign policy. Importantly, however, they don’t want to destroy the system, just run it and push around whites both foreign and domestic.
The new guard wants to blow up the system. They don’t care about Russia or pogroms in the 19th century. They are much more focused on fighting Badwhites in the United States than non-whites abroad. AOC and Omar don’t want to send American troops to kill Afghanis in Kabul when they could be used to round up white nationalists in Idaho.
The battle in the Uniparty will be between those funding and organizing the party vs those who represent the party in public. The insiders will try to contain the party’s public face; however, their problem will be that the public representatives will, in fact, only be asking the party to implement policies that fit its ideology, making it difficult for the insiders to block those policies.
I think the CCP and WEF juice farmers colluded to get Trump out.
During that process, the CCP probably believed they would still be running the show post-Trump.
The juice farmers said, “Nuh-uh!” and realized that Trump’s plan for dealing with China actually made a lot of sense.
i noticed too, that the biden gang were being very tough with china. also noticed china was becoming more bellicose in response; i.e. they are nervous. i think if you look at this through the prism of two criminal gangs, each sitting on a big bag of loot, you get a clear picture of what is really going on.
the bidenites are going to hit china up for coof reparations that will do to china what versailles did to germany. throw in climate change demands too. maybe we are leaving afshitistan because we are gearing up to hammer china hard, militarily, at the first excuse, while tightening down the screwsm economically.
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