A clever way to make smart predictions is to start with the assumption that the near future is not going to be much different from the present. Current trends will extend out over the near term. On the other hand, if you want to get a lot of attention for yourself, you can make bold crazy predications that confirm deeply held suspicions. “Next year we see hyperinflation!” will get the gold bugs and Fed watchers excited. Everyone likes to hear that their dreams will come true in the coming year.
The trouble with either of those approaches is they are not motivated by the desire to figure out what may be coming in the new year. Sure, most things will probably be the same as last year, but so what? What matters is what will be different. Similarly, pretending the Great Pumpkin will rise from the pumpkin patch and finally deliver on his promises is just cheap theater. So, with that in mind, let us cut open the goat and read what the entrails tell us about the coming year.
The signs say chaos is coming for the political class in 2022. The administration’s half-hearted effort to tamp down the Covid panic will be met by shrieking from the Covidians and much of the media. This is where we start to see some deep fissures in the coalition as many are tired of the restrictions while others cannot let it go. This will lead to criticism of the administration from some on the Left and a corresponding bit of return fire from the inner party.
Adding to the chaos will be the collapse of all support for Kamala Harris. She never had a constituency in the party and the prospect of losing the House and Senate means they need to get a replacement done before the election. The fact is Biden is in rough shape so the question is who will pick his successor. The inner party will make this a central part of the fall campaign. They hope the new heir apparent will get their people energized and take people’s attention away from the economy.
The fall elections go poorly for the Democrats. They lose over thirty seats in the House, but the result is not a landslide as many whites sit out the election. The icy hand of demographics begins to show up in formerly safe republicans areas. The Democrats take the loss as an opportunity to force Joe Biden to resign. His deteriorating condition and his successor secured, leads to a coordinated push to have him retire from office after the new year, allowing his successor to run for two terms.
I will finally escape Lagos.
The instability of the imperial leadership begins to show up globally. Ukraine experiences civil unrest, especially in the east. The Turkish economy collapses and we see widescale protests against the government. Israel decides now is the time to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Ethiopia collapses into chaos because Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed overplays his hand in peace talks with the Tigrayan rebels. As a result, east Africa collapses into famine and civil war.
I finish my book and I become more popular than Jesus.
Back on the home front, first quarter inflation comes in much hotter than expected, forcing the Fed to speed up their tapering schedule. Food prices show the biggest rise as the phrase “fertilizer shortage” enters the conversation. As the Fed begins to raise rates for the first time in a generation, equities decline 20% in what the media will tell us is a natural correction. Bitcoin will lose 50% of its value as governments tighten the rules on digital assets and their platforms.
The combination of Covid chaos and economic troubles will result in the first signs of right-wing unrest since the 2020 election. Fueled by anticipation of another stolen election, populist groups will organize public rallies in DC. The FBI, of course, will play their role but thanks to awareness of their shenanigans, these rallies will be full of people with cameras looking for FBI infiltrators. Finding the infiltrator will be the most popular internet game in 2022.
Everyone at Reason magazine will come out as trans and no one will notice.
Conservative Inc. begins to show some serious problems as the decline of their donor base begins to accelerate. Some of it is driven by the actuarial tables but most of it is the increasing realization that conservatism is just a money pit. This will correspond with an uptick in support for populist and dissident operations. Grifters like Ben Shapiro and Charlie Kirk to become more populist in their rhetoric. Even Trump will start attacking the conservative establishment again.
On the media front, we see a wholesale reorganization of cable news. CNN shifts to a pure news model, dropping their entertainment shows. MSNBC, responding the Tucker Carlson-ization of Fox, begins adding left-wing populist content, retiring many of their current personalities in favor of left-wing YouTube personalities. The collapse of conservative talk radio will accelerate as that audience ages off and people simply stop listening to terrestrial radio in general.
Happy New Year!
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Of all your predictions, the only I care about at this point is that you get the hell out of Lagos.
8
I think this is the year when somebody rolls the dice on something *really* stupid. Looking at the popular mood (insofar as one can judge these things) in the immediate run up to things like World War One and the Civil War, there’s a palpable sense of “let’s just get this over with.” It can’t go on like this, for whatever values of “it” and “this.” So why not just push the button on (insert stupid scheme – secession, whacking the Archduke, writing Austria-Hungary a blank check, whatever).
For most people in the countries involved, the overwhelming feeling was hysterical relief. Finally!
This being Clown World, of course, the precipitating event will be so much faker and gayer than anyone can imagine, but that goes without saying.
5
And they got it “good and hard” as Mencken put it. With rare exception, Spanish-American War as an example, wars rarely turn out the way the cheerleaders hope.
1
They seem to be doing pretty well out of it thus far.
Your sons and brothers. Not so much.
Maybe one should think what the cheerleaders actually hope to get out of them, not what we project they want?
Probably as good a forecast as any. What will make things interesting is the number of random variables is higher than ever. A real sleeper is fertilizer prices and natgas supply in general. One of my kids is in the LNG shipping business and the average person has no clue how disordered those markets are right now, nor the number of downstream products, like fertilizer, that are dependent on natgas feedstock. Nor that all natgas is substitutable for any application. There are different chemical compositions that are better or worse suited for different applications and a key problem is imbalance in supply of different mixtures. Given that the two largest cost inputs for agricultural production are diesel and fertilizer, this has the potential to be a slow motion car wreck through the economy.
3
It’s a shame that nearly all of the Solvay process coke ovens have been shut down with great prejudice. I admit that the smell of phenols and sulfur are pretty stiff around any of those places, but they’re always in the old and largely uninhabited part of town anyhow.
There’s lots of ammonia collected in the process of coking metallurgical coal. Since it can be turned into fertilizer production, I can see why the Govenment and PTB don’t want any of that stuff. Their cabals can make more money forcing the use of Natural Gas as a feedstock, and if they make more money selling it to someone else while we starve, then more the better for them.
What’s your prediction on the Roe v. Wade ruling?
My guess is that it is rolled back federally, and sent to the state level. Access to abortion stays more or less the same as before, with the few remaining red state clinics shutting down.
White feminists will protest and lash out but there will be no real consequence as the abortion debate is mostly a white person debate (ideological) and white feminists are no longer as relevant as they think they are.
1
I love watching these things for the crowd shots. Lets us know our enemies’ order of battle. WRT abortion, it looks like the Ladies’ Auxiliary Bake Sale at the lunatic asylum – a bunch of what should be sweet old grannies, but they’re all wearing pussy hats and the facial expressions of Sriracha enema victims.
5
“Sriracha enema victims”. I’m stealing that.
1
Yeah, I think that could be the result. What pulls me back is the habit of conservatives finking on their supporters. Conservatives are Lucy and their supporters are Charlie Brown. This abortion case could just be another football.
1
Oh it will be another football. And to really stick it to them they’ll have Barrett write the opinion.
1
Yes, ACB. All the cons loved her in the fall of 20. Then she testified that she cried about St Floyds death with her adopted vibrant daughter.
3
The court will return abortion after 15 weeks to the states. Even the Establishment liberals are signaling that’s going to happen by running articles on how mothers still could fly to CA or NY to murder their babies.
Its obvious the learned the lesson years ago of setting up fake attacks on figures to create a strong victim defense in the minds of their target audience. They play this all the time.
They ran this for both her and the crying bush stooge to get them fully supported by the con idiots.
The right seem unable to determine this pattern no matter how man times their face gets rubbed in it.
1
* Biden dies
* Democrats will rediscover Hillary
* Public discussion about merging with Mainland China will start surfacing in Taiwan and getting serious consideration
* Swedes will elect record number of non-Europeans into their parliament
* Another part of Ukraine will formally join Russia and the US will be unable to do anything about it.
4
I think it will be very hard to pull back on the COVID stuff, and not just because of the crazy left and the (((media))).
The entire medical-industrial complex has organized themselves around this new religion, and they have become the new high priests. They don’t want to relinquish this status. And COVID being minimized would call into question their self-proclaimed heroism.
This group plus the Davos-types intend to force their new sacrament on everyone multiple times (jabbing), and they won’t give up until either we’re dead or they’re dead.
5
Netherlands has already announced 6 (SIX) jabs towards 2023 and are spending billions on the vaxx. Canada and other countries are going the same way. Too many people are too invested in this – psychologically and materially.
1
Ontario is now letting nursing home patients receive their 4th dose.
All 18+ are eligible for the 3rd dose, and the government is begging us that it is of utmost importance to all get our triple jab. So we can go back to normal or something.
I’m expecting the definition of “fully vaccinated” to change soon to only 3+ doses.
2
The Covid train is nuts. The Media/NGO industrial complex has found out that they cut the cords to the brakes and the sharp narrative pivots they’ve planted in the NYT and CDC have only galvanized the Covidians.
1
My Predictions:
I kinda think that 2020-2021 was the step down the staircase using Z’s analogy but now it’s time for a leveling off for a couple of years.
The Dems will indeed suffer loses this fall and the Republicans will all act like Lindsay Graham at a gay bar and offer themselves up to the Dems globo homo agenda.
Never the less the Dems will have a hysterical fit and hold out hope for 2024 which I predict is the next step down because the republicans will somehow win the Presidency back threatening the intelligence apparatus and setting off a color revolution.
I think we kinda coast for a couple more years before the next major crisis but who knows?
No one does.
We are fragile domestically on many fronts and we also have many matchboxes overseas.
Happy New Year to all!
Don’t vote. Let the Dems get 52 senate seats and keep the house. Then they will pass an amnesty that has 20 million new vibrants here almost overnight. That will show those dirty libs. Just whatever you do, don’t vote because somehow your anonymous casting of a ballot validates the system for … reasons. Meanwhile the new Americans will actually vote for politicians that want even more new Americans and on and on. Just don’t vote because our side has a secret plan.
2
Sure. And all those newly minted republican senators and congressmen in the vote harder coalition are going to band together with the geezer cohort and show us all how things really get done when they’re in charge. They’ll round up all those greasy illegals and chuck ’em right back across the border, right? Just like every other time they’ve been in the majority. It’ll be the good old days all over again.
Oh, and they’ll proclaim the demos are the real racists…
Chet’s Predictions:
– White males will eschew the college path even more, for better or worse.
– White males will accelerate the fake minority game to the extent that colleges and companies will require video chat or photo id in their application. They will respond by checking the sexual minority boxes instead.
– A small cluster white women will start follow the men’s lead. More will follow once we get the moral framing down.
No mention of the state audit results? Big miss, man. I think we almost have 2mm signatures now, so…
2
Is 2mm signatures enough? Wouldn’t 4mm be better?
1
My primary and secondary prediction could be reversed based on the fall-out from the former.
The first is the Covid climb-down proves exceptionally difficult. The Regime really wants to declare victory and go back to traditional graft and demagoguery. Several components are in stark opposition, though. The least important of these, the Karens, also are the crazier and more vocal. They may go to their graves, possibly by mass suicide and/or the Regime taking them out, but these types are never giving up their masks, their social media rants, and bi-weekly vaccines. The most important element, the WEF, has made fortunes but not gotten their Great Reset and Feudalism 4ever. That is the wildcard: do they take their winnings or continue to sit at the table? The prospect of their inflated assets becoming worth less may force them to cash in their chips. The middling Covidian factions, Big Pharma, the medical industrial complex, and scavenger politicians, can be threatened enough to fall into line and declare we should put our hand to the television set and be healed.
The secondary prediction is the one that could flip and become the most important. The Regime will conduct some sort of phony war with Russia, largely words and immediately violated sanctions. Again, the economic instability will act as a brake on anything beyond kabuki. Also, the realization that even ‘Murica! cucks are indifferent at best will penetrate their bubble. But…
A certain Tribe of psychopaths dominate State and the military. They want to take the entire world down with them, except, of course, for their Mother Country, to avenge granny’s rape at the hands of the Cossacks. These monsters could slip up or even intentionally ignite a nuclear and/or world ward. They certainly have bribed enough political and corporate sociopaths to make this happen. It would, and likely will, be ironic to see “Biden” privately read the Tribe the riot act.
There will be no hyperinflation, as you pointed out, but it still will be horrible. If there is one silver lining there, inflation puts a brake on the Covidians and Avenge Granny sect. The inflation also will put the federal government on the ropes because the White Devil will start to push back and god knows, no matter how half-assed, that terrifies them.
Why don’t we all face the music and realize that the U.S.A. and the rest of the world for all it matters, has already collapsed and the process is deepening as we go further over the event singularity.
Most people just think every stupid thing going on right now is a temporary event. For example, my retired cousin is drooling over the prospects of buying one of those $90,000 pickup trucks. I said, “Why? You’ll never be able to get parts for it in a few years.” But those kind will keep right on rolling on until there’s weeds growing out of the cracks of every car dealership and China Big Box store as far as the eye can see.
There’s lots of talk how all of the local Wal-Marts and Big Sams here in my area are supposedly going to fire half of their workers after January. It has something to do with them having too many workers to stock an ever decreasing or nonexistent amount of stock. The signs of deepening collapse are everywhere, but I suppose it won’t really sink in until the only food available will be that you have to cook. I await with great glee at the prospects of women complaining about having to cook every meal, just like they did in A.D. 1933, if they don’t want to starve. You know, there may be some justice to come out of this after all.
1
> . I await with great glee at the prospects of women complaining about having to cook every meal, just like they did in A.D. 1933, if they don’t want to starve.
My favorite is people who insist they can’t cook because they don’t have an 80,000 dollar kitchen, while their great-great-grandparents cooked far superior meals to what they could ever do on dirt floors.