When the Russians launched what they call a special military operation in the Ukraine, the window for a negotiated settlement was wide open. The Russians were prepared to go back to the Minsk accords and work out a deal with Ukraine. In fact, such a deal was close to happening in April, but then London, at the behest of Washington, stepped in and convinced Zelensky to end negotiations. The collective West was now fully behind Ukraine and they would accept no deal with Russia.
The Russians left open the possibility for a deal. Despite the sanctions and the flow of weapons into the Ukraine from the West, the Russians kept playing for a negotiated settlement to the conflict. The main reason is a deal signed by Zelensky would prevent future shenanigans from Washington. Liberating the disputed areas and degrading the Ukrainian military would leave open the possibility of more fighting. Ukraine would become like the Korean peninsula.
Yesterday the door for a negotiated settlement has closed completely. In an address to the nation, Putin announced that Russia would accept the results of the referendums planned in the Donbas. When these areas vote to join the Russian Federation, they will become sovereign Russian territory. The second thing he announced is the call up of roughly 300,000 reservists to defend Russian lands in the Donbas. An attack on Donetsk or Luhansk is now an attack on Russia.
This change will be lost in the Western media because they are assigned the task of selling the Western war on Russia. They describe Russia as a large outdoor gas station run by vodka-swilling peasants. Putin is described as a tyrant with absolute and undisputed control of the country. This is complete nonsense, but most of what appears in the Western media is nonsense. They make the old communist propaganda organs look like objective observers.
Reality in Russia is quite different. For starters, Putin is not a dictator and he has to worry about his constituents. Like every other country, Russia is ruled by a coalition of forces that have real power. Putin leads this coalition and he has to respect the interests of the coalition members. Russia is also a bureaucratic country. Things are done a certain way, through certain processes. Russians like rules and the Russian bureaucracy is nothing if not a playground for those who love rules.
The other important thing about Russia is that Putin is the most dovish, pro-Western voice in the ruling coalition. There were voices calling for military action in the Ukraine going back to the 2014 coup that toppled the Ukrainian government. There are voices today that want full mobilization and total war on the Ukraine. Putin has preferred to work the diplomatic angle. He saw signed deals with the West as a way to hold the collective West to their commitments.
In announcing the next phase of the war, Putin is signaling that he has moved in the direction of the hawks. This means the rules of engagement that up to now have prevented the Russian military from targeting civilian infrastructure and command centers have been removed. That means damns, power plants, water treatment plants and other essential structures will be attacked. It also means the Russian army can now take the lead in fighting the Ukrainians.
This is another thing lost in the Western media. The rules the Russians placed on themselves in this fight were to limit contact between the Russian army and the Ukrainian army. This means the militias did the bulk of the fighting with air and artillery support from the Russians. Private military contractors were also brought in to assist the militias with weapons and logistics. That changes now. The Russian military will take the lead in the war going forward.
Presumably, the Ukrainians will not respect the referendums and keep attacking these areas, which means Russia will now be at war with Ukraine. This may sound like a distinction without a difference, but it is a big change. From the Russian perspective, they are following international law. The Western powers supporting Ukraine are now parties to the war between Russia and Ukraine. In other words, it is no longer a proxy war but a direct conflict between West and East.
What does that mean? For starters, the Russians can now cut off all energy supplies to NATO countries and be on firm legal ground. They can also point to Kosovo as a precedent for their actions. Kosovo elected to break away from Serbia. The West recognized it and then bombed Serbia. Putin has mentioned this precedent in the past and will no doubt point to it after the referendum. The point is to show the rest of the world that the Russians are operating by the rules.
That is another piece of the puzzle. Prior to this announcement, Putin has been meeting with his counterparts in Asia. It is clear that China and India are onboard with what the Russians are doing. That is the point of these self-imposed rules. It makes the point to other countries that one side is following the rules and the other side is not. If you are worried about being regime changed, this is important. Every leader outside the collective West is now worried about regime change.
All wars have a moral component. No one wants to see themselves as the bad guy, so the parties to a conflict seek to claim the moral high ground. This is what the Russians have been doing since the war started. These limitations they have placed on themselves were about establishing their moral position. This next phase of the war was not what they wanted, but the other side left them no choice. Whether you accept that or not, the Russians accept it and that is what matters.
What all of this means is that the war has now entered a much more dangerous phase and it will only end militarily. The West is pledged to fighting until the last Ukrainian and now Russia is accepting the challenge. In addition, Russia will now make it much more difficult for Ukraine to function as a country, much less provide the necessary support for its army in the field. That also means direct targeting of Western assets in Ukraine by the Russian military.
Sadly, the only hope for a peaceful solution to the war now lies with Washington getting its wish and reaching the point of the last Ukrainian. The Russians drive up Ukrainian losses quickly over the next few months. The military loses its fighting ability and the civilian population is put under terrible stress. The combination of the two forces a settlement, despite Washington’s desire to keep fighting. In other words, the hope for peace lies in a tragedy for the Ukraine.
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“Presumably, the Ukrainians will not respect the referendum s”.
But but…Democracy!!!!
6
Democracy means accepting referenda if and only if it is in the interests of the ruling class. This is the secret meaning of the rules-based society.
2
> Sadly, the only hope for a peaceful solution to the war now lies with Washington getting its wish and reaching the point of the last Ukrainian.
The way things are escalating, it’s going to go far beyond killing Russians and Ukrainians. Things might spiral out of control in a hurry, so everyone would be wise to have contingencies to get away from cities if things get real hot.
Seriously, all the nuclear war fear porn that was fed to us all the time in school during the cold war made me less nervous than I am now.
9
The mythology of the Cuban missile crisis still lingers in Washington. They think that when push comes to shove, the Russians will back down as they supposedly did in the 1960’s. In reality, the Russians agreed to remove the missiles from Cuba and the united States agreed to remove all of the Jupiter MRBMs which had been deployed to Turkey.
It should be an important lesson to Washington in how Russia views its interests. Khrushchev did not care that Kennedy got a public relations victory. He cared about those nuclear weapons in Turkey. Similarly, Putin does not care about mean tweets from Zelensky or Jean-Pierre. he does care about removing the Western threat from Ukraine.
I am with you. My search for land in the mountains now escalates.
14
USA won that public relations victory mainly thanks to information provided by GRU officer Oleg Penkovsky who allowed Kennedy to call Khrushchev’s bluff about Soviet MAD capabilities.
2
That is frightening, when you think about it.
5
One of the unsung heroes of the 20th century. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say there is a high degree of probability most of us are even alive because of his actions.
2
On a more serious note, these events give the GAE an entree to direct conflict with Russia.
They wanted a war, well, now ya got one. Shame if the fog of said war causes elections to be, shall we say, fortified?
I guess Bill and Klaus are gonna get their surplus population reduction after all.
8
I grew up during the Cold War but right now feel like we are closer to WWIII than at any time in my life. Letting ideologue imbeciles run this country is a really dangerous mistake.
23
There are certainly shades of the early 1980s here. Coming off the ’70s it was already dismal, but the world was looking particularly bleak when Reagan took office. Thing wad, just not being Arab and/or Russian automatically made you “one of the good guys”, or at least a member of the free world. Somewhat depressing to me seeing your country taking on the other guy’s role now.
5
The good thing about the Cold War was that there was nothing you could do about it so it wasn’t your fault, personally. I suspect that made it easier to shrug off than today, where you give aid and comfort to Vladolf Putler if you take a shower.
2
Its not your fault, its just a reflection of our “leaders” that the only game they know is to do stupid stuff and then blame those they hurt. Its really their ethos, abortion comes to mind but you don’t have to think very hard to see where else it applies.
Maybe it’s time for a cheerful double feature like The Day After and Threads?
Heck, make it a triple feature and throw By Dawn’s Early Light in there too.
Lukashenko is a better dictator than Putin. While Russian President is swamped by the infamous Russian bureaucracy (since imperial times) and even Russians tend to joke that paper/бумага (with correct stamps ofc) is a true ruler of Russia, Belarus is a more flexible system where President’s will often speeds up the process.
2
There are reports that Belarus is mobilizing its armed forces. I tried to track down some confirmation, but it is hard to now what is true or false. It is not inconceivable the Lukashenko could try to profit from the next phase of the war. Russia still has 30,000 troops in Belarus, so that bears watching.
5
“Batka” is already legendary for his bargaining games in Russia (for which he is often despised in Moscow), although here I think he’s playing waiting game for now. Ukrainian crisis gave a nice boost to Belorussian economy when they became an intermediary to circumvent the sanctions, so Lukashenki may be hoping to play similar role again. The problem is, EU bungled latest regime change in Belarus horribly which leaves us with waiting for the next detente.
3
The Russians are in the process of collapsing the German economy by cutting off energy supplies. This could also end with a Western surrender to get the natural gas flowing. Germany is reporting staggering levels of inflation.
Things are bad here, but will only get worse as the “build back better” green new deal religious fanatics continue to wage war on modernity.
The war might well end with Western governments imploding under the pressure of populist movements furious about the war being waged on them by these religious fanatics.
10
Just wait until it gets a bit colder in the US. Natural gas prices are climbing and will start climbing quickly after the election. gasoline prices will also start ticking back up after the election. Maybe the long dark winter Biden has been promising is upon us.
8
“The war might well end with Western governments imploding under the pressure of populist movements furious about the war being waged on them by these religious fanatics.”
The potential silver lining in all of this.
5
“The Russians are in the process of collapsing the German economy by cutting off energy supplies.”
Not the Russians, who are blameless in this. It’s the Americans, along with their German stooges who seem to lack the brains, balls, and spine to stand up to the Americans.
3
No Germany means no Euro.
This may be intended, if we can believe the leaked RAND paper.
This could buy the petrodollar some additional time.
On the other hand, if the US has too much Euro-denominated debt exposure it’s adios muchachos for the petrodollar too.
there is only one word to describe what the U.S. is doing here: evil, absolute undiluted evil. No one wants this. the suffering, not just in Ukraine but Germany and other European nations, will be indescribable. One can only hope and pray that the United States will, through some special providence, be absolutely humiliated. The Lincolnite chickens are home to roost.
15
“Sadly, the only hope for a peaceful solution to the war now lies with Washington getting its wish and reaching the point of the last Ukrainian.”
If reaching the point of the last Ukrainian means a Russian victory I can’t see the West letting it get that far, they have far too much riding on this and I expect there will be a Pearl Harbor or sinking of the Lusitania type event to justify NATO troops on the ground.
The reputational damage to the West and the ramifications for the “rules based global-order” from a Russian victory is too great for them to risk.
To venture a bit of speculation, I imagine the USA fully expects war with Russia, has war-gamed this scenario, decided that Europe returning to the Stone-Age is a price worth paying and are confident of victory.
8
As Z says, only when our elites know pain will they change course. Putin threatening to lob some conventional bombs at Martha’s Vineyard would probably get them to fold (or just jet some gypsies over). They could care less about 90% of the country getting nuked.
1
History will call it the Kagan war.
1
“What all of this means is that the war has now entered a much more dangerous phase and it will only end militarily.”
I can’t think offhand of when Washington has been good at diplomacy over the last several decades. I think I read somewhere (around 30 or 40 years ago) that whenever there is an ideological dispute or national liberation struggle (which invariably goes against Washington and its stooges), Washington prefers to shift the ideological difference to military conflict as it’s simply no good at debate and diplomacy. To paraphrase Clausewitz, war is the only diplomacy that the USA understands.
It’s going to get a bloody nose in the Ukraine at the very least and the contempt with which the USA is now held in large parts of the world will only increase. But as usual the right heads won’t roll.
4
Washington diplomacy is threatening to bomb a country until they do what we want, then when they do it bomb them to oblivion anyways.
The most darkly hilarious example was when Washington demanded Afghanistan hand over Bin Laden, Afghanistan accepted, then the U.S. rejected the offer and invaded the country.
Complete psychopath behavior.
7
Same story in Kosovo. Serbia (FRY) was the only party to respect the Dayton Agreements and in return, Belgrade got bombed to smithereens for almost three months.
I knew a guy who was in KFOR, the globalist occupation army in Kosovo, and he said that everybody in his unit yearned for the day when Washington realized their terrible mistake and ordered them to slaughter the Albanians to the last man.
3
Kosovo is the key to this debacle, it was Kosovo that set the precedent for the last 30 years of neocon imperialism, that’s was when the old world order broke.
5
Ever since wasting the “peace dividend” of the 90s, US seemed to move around on international stage in unfitting clothes. One might remark that was truly “the End of History”, because they had no idea what to do with Cold War victory and entered fantasy land with neocon imperialism and liberal globalism. If we made a dancing analogy, there was much movement, but without much grace and so chaotic as if to waste energy on purpose. Ofc there was still organized intrigue on geopolitical stage, but executed with decreasing efficiency.
Some might describe that approach as creative and willing to break with established orthodoxy, but rejecting existing theories without creating new ones doesn’t make anyone creative. If foreign policy establishment had listened a bit to prof. John Mearsheimer (an old realist), they wouldn’t have fumbled so badly.
3
That bit about power centers in Russia is particularly lucid. Aside from the most known factions like oligarchs and “siloviki”, there are also people from defense industry (connected to players like known hawk Rogozin), diplomacy and army generals. Not to mention traditionally pro-western liberal wing centered in Petersburg (Medvedev’s election signaled that Russia is looking for reconciliation, that was ultimately celebrated by Obama’s Reset), there are also various smaller power players like regional governors and businessmen. The former were restrained a bit when Russia introduced federal districts in 2019
3
2010, my typo
Generally RF President is something closer to pre-imperial tsar who has to balance various power centers.
Creation of Rosgvardia (National Guard) is one of the examples.
2
That is how I think about it. The various players are not the Boyars, but it is not a worthless comparison. That makes Putin a combination of Ivan III and Ivan IV. I’ve also compared Putin to Peter in that he marks a transition to a new relationship between Russia and the West. Putin is the bookend to Peter and this long unrequited flirtation with the West.
1
Lots to unpack-
– One big win for Russia is how they’ve emptied Western arsenals with their limited force.
– Big win for China as they act as middleman to sell Russian oil at a big markup.
– Remember the Ukrainian bill passed on July 12th to give Poles, ‘special rights’ in Ukraine? Is this how they’re folding Poles into the Uke forces?
– The 7-year Shmita ends on the 24th. Does this relate to the German politician’s comments about it being a day to remember?
– Here is a good breakdown that argues everyone other than the MIC and uber-rich are losing in Ukraine: https://thedailybeagle.substack.com/p/i-analyse-the-ukraine-war
3
– Remember the Ukrainian bill passed on July 12th to give Poles, ‘special rights’ in Ukraine? Is this how they’re folding Poles into the Uke forces?
Polish mercs are already fighting for Keev’s forces. That bill will be more important once the dust settles. Guess who GAE will designate as ukrainian life-support after Ukraine is reduced to a rump entity. Ukropol(in) may become a de facto postwar construct in Eastern Europe that will handle the matters of security and EU administration in that area (while providing hunting grounds for western businesses). Polish taxpayers should seriously reconsider their tax residency….
1
I think in the end, Poland will regret having been drawn into this. Washington has a bad habit of not paying its bills in these matters and in this case, it means the neighboring countries get stuck with the cost. Orban seems to have guessed this and has acted to insulate Hungary, but now the EU is threatening to tax them for being undemocratic.
If things continue on their present course, we’re liable to see a noteworthy depletion of the nuclear weapons inventory.
3
Two more points I forgot-
– My gut says Washington is prepared to fight to the last European.
– Serbia withdrew its recognition of Kosovo. Minor annoyance for DC, but one loves to see it.
6
Yet another tiger by the tail. To think that I used to root for American businesses to be the best and dominate trade. Only to have that oligarchy declare me its number one domestic enemy and become a force for leveling nations and replacing them with deracinated, ad consuming, debt addled, degenerate libertines who they intend to treat as cattle.
Looks like we are going to suffer no matter what. In that case, my sincerest hope is that the next-gen managerial cattle cart of Current Thing NPCs, (college students), are conscripted to fight the Russians. It won’t happen. Still, if that was even a possibility that was realized, a negotiated settlement would already be signed. I hope our people are smart enough to stay out of the fray on the ground in Ukraine.
2
Among all the various insanities shoved down our throats daily and in seemingly all aspects of life, this one looks to be taking a highly dangerous turn. There might have been some popular support for Ukraine in the beginning, but most, at least in the US, couldn’t care less anymore. Of course that makes no difference whatsoever to our demented “leadership”. We’ve been trying to beat up on third world countries for seven decades now, with little success to show for it. Now we’re actively engaging one nuclear power and saber rattling with the other. What could possibly go wrong? The future isn’t looking to bright – or maybe it will to the tune of some mushroom clouds…