After a flurry of peace talks in Saudi Arabia, the Trump peace initiative regarding the war in Ukraine seems to have run out of steam. The last round of talks stalled over the conditions required to create a Black Sea ceasefire. The Russians laid out the conditions they would require, the conditions they agreed to in 2022 under the Black Sea grain deal. Ukraine flatly rejected those terms this time. The Europeans have also made clear that they will never agree to peace.
After Ukraine and the EU rejected the terms, Putin said some things that got little note in the West but were clearly a signal to the Trump administration. The first was at a meeting of Russian industrialists where Putin told them that despite talks with Washington, they should not expect the end of sanctions. The new world order, so to speak, is one in which the Russian economy will operate independently of the West and within the framework of BRICS.
That was a clear signal to the Trump people that ending sanctions was not a carrot and new sanctions are not a stick. The Russians have moved on from the old model where their economy was connected to the Western model. Despite the last three years, the West remains convinced that sanctions are working, and that Russia desperately wants back into the Western economic model. Until the Trump administration sees the folly in this, negotiations with Russia will go nowhere.
Another thing Putin said was in response to a question at a public event about the Trump effort to get a ceasefire. Putin said there will not be a Minsk 3. This is a reference to prior deals with the West over Ukraine. In Minsk 1 and Minsk 2, the Russians agreed to get trapped Western advisors in the war zone free of the Donbass militias in exchange for a peace deal that never materialized. In both cases, the West just poured more weapons into Ukraine.
This is a very sore subject for Russians. They see these prior deals as efforts to trick and humiliate them. When Trump publicly asked Putin to let the trapped Ukrainian troops in Kursk escape, it set off alarm bells in Moscow. It looked like the same old tricks from the Western tricksters. That is the reason Putin made a point of saying there will never be a Minsk 3. He was telling the Russian public and the Russian elite that he will not be fooled a third time.
That has led to two other things Putin said last week. One is he said the Russian army is ready to finish off the Ukrainian army. That is a bold statement, out of character for Putin. He has been warning of a five- or ten-year war since the West cancelled the Istanbul agreements. To now talk about a quick end of the war suggests that something big is on the drawing board. It could also mean the Ukrainian army is in far worse shape than is being reported.
This comment about the end of the war came with a comment about putting Ukraine into what amounts to receivership. Putin suggested that the post-war process would start with the removal of the Kiev government and put the administration of the country into the hands of a UN group. This caused Trump to call NBC’s Manjaw Crazyeyes and rant about being “pissed off” at Putin. He said he is planning to apply new sanctions to Russia in response to these statements.
What all of this points to is that the Trump peace initiative is dead. The Russians were willing to listen, but now that it is clear that Trump has no leverage over Ukraine or Europe, there is no point in continuing the charade. The war in Ukraine will end by military means and then maybe there can be a negotiated settlement. That was the point Putin was making last week. Whether or not the Trump administration understands this is unknown.
The Pentagon, on the other hand, at least the permanent elements, independent of the administration, does get this. They wrote a long, mendacious thriller for the New York Times where they blame the failure of Project Ukraine on the Ukrainians and to a lesser extent the Trump administration. It is a long post worth reading for no other reason than it is a great example of narrative fantasy. It is written like a spy thriller because it is mostly self-serving fiction.
If you want to know why Western politicians seem to be so clueless about so much, it is because they rely on the storytellers called the media for their version of reality. All over Washington, staffers for elected officials read that Times story, shocked to learn that the American military has been running the war from the start. Normal people have known this since day one because the internet exists and people use it, but elected officials get their reality from the media.
The main point of that work of fiction is to make clear that the Ukraine failure was not the fault of the Military Industrial Complex. All the weapons were, in fact, wonder weapons that totally crushed those primitive Russians. NATO tactics were the best and completely baffled those drunken Russkies. The people who brought you the F-35 want to make clear that when the Russian flag is in Maidan Square, it was the fault of the people who refused to let the American military win the war.
As an aside, if you can get past the self-serving fiction, the article reveals just how close we were to extinction. There were people willing to go all in on attacking Russia, which would have provoked a nuclear retaliation. Unsaid, but implied, is that there were people willing to go nuclear, maybe even preemptively. If the Trump administration is serious about changing foreign policy, a top priority must be hunting down those people and permanently removing them from society.
Putting that aside, what all of this tells us is that there will be no negotiated settlement to the Ukraine war, at least not until things on the battlefield change. Perhaps when the Ukrainian army begins to break in a major way, reality will get over the media firewall into the brains of the political classes in the West. Maybe the Trump administration understands this, maybe not. It does not matter because they are not in control of events, so they can only stand by and watch.
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oh great, trump called nbc to rant. he really just never learns or changes. combine his (ignorant) impotence on ukraine with his impotence in the face of radical judiciary and you have a spent force. ideally trump is replaced by vance ASAP.
And then what? The blob has shown time and again that it won’t be changed into anything that resembles a representation of normal Americans. As predicted the Trump train has fizzled out. There is no political solution. Most people on our side have known this for quite some time.
oh i agree there is no political fix. and who knows what vance would do as POTUS given he married a pajeet. but at least he is real world smart and effective with the media. just bored to death of trump’s blowhard act.
I couldn’t believe my ears when I heard Trump threatening sanctions and tariffs. What’s next, he threatens to send more weapons? For a guy who talked a lot about what an idiot Joe Biden was, he sure is continuing a lot of his policies. The only card Trump has to play is to send Americans to go fight and die along the A-A line. Putin has correctly concluded that there is no desire in the USA to do that, except amongst a small insular tribe of elites who wouldn’t be doing any of the fighting anyway. But for some reason,… Read more »
Unless Trump is ready to cut off support for Ukraine, he as nothing. I think he might know this but has decided to let the money run out on its own. Zelensky said as much last week. He thinks that is the Trump plan. Given the general stupidity of Washington, my bet is they pass a Ukraine funding bill this summer and Trump signs it, while saying some more stupid things.
As much as DC is not reading the internet and folks like you about Ukraine, Vance’s team does seem to be reading them. Unlike the others, he seems to have a much better grasp of the situation. Would be interesting to see what he’s telling Trump.
Vance reportedly said the Houthi adventure was a mistake. He was right, but he did not carry the day.
I continue to believe that much of what Trump is trying to accomplish will depend on whether Vance can win in 2028. The Blob will stall in hopes of a Dem or a cuck winning in ’28. Trump can get the stake against the chest of the Blob, but he’ll need Vance to shove it into the heart.
It is silly after all we have seen t think anything in this country will be fixed by another election. The donor class wanted to reorganize the deep state so to speak. like a company will reorganize to be more efficient. so they didn’t fix the election for president this time. All the Fraud and no arrests? never will be any arrests, because it’s all theater.
trump will be gone before the end of his term, and maybe vance can institute some smarts in the gop. maybe. not how i would bet though.
If he wants to bring Putin to the negotiating table, a Ukraine funding deal isn’t going to do it. Nor are sanctions and tariffs. None of this stuff is going to work because none of this stuff has worked. But, as we have learned many times over the decades in the foreign policy realm, Washington is much more comfortable doubling down on a bad idea than it is in acknowledging its mistakes and changing course.
“Given the general stupidity of Washington, my bet is they pass a Ukraine funding bill this summer and Trump signs it” At some point (maybe soon) ZOG is simply going to be unable to fund this stuff any more. I just did my taxes, and the IRS is kind enough to publish income and outlay charts for every fiscal year in the 1040 instructions. For Fiscal Year 2023, here are the income numbers: Social Security and Medicare taxes, 26% Personal Income taxes, 35% Borrowing to cover the deficit, 28% The FY 2023 deficit was $1.7 trillion. Here are the outlay… Read more »
Yeah the Houthi thing, the Iran thing, and now Trump calling into morning news shows suggests that he is reverting back to Neocon Don. I was worried about this…we all were. But the hope is that Vance et. al are able to reign in Trump’s boomer tendencies.
Politics, like science, advances one funeral at a time. We’re not going to get any relief until this generation of politicians leaves the stage. I say this as someone a few years older than Zman, These knuckleheads were raised on Globohomo and they ain’t giving it up willingly.
Yeah, I think this is the case. We will also need a lot of pain. It may even lead to violence. My bet is for every kook burning a Tesla, there one hundred quietly seething normies who would love top tear him the bits. The 2024 election lower the temperature a bit, but the post is still on the stove and the lids remains tightly fixed.
Trump is owned, lock, stock and barrel, by the Diaspora. Ukraine is their second front.
Listen to Alex Krainer explain the London-New York axis and you will understand completely. Various tentacles of this axis are also in control in Paris, Berlin, and Brussels. When we talk about the GAE, this is what is being discussed. Listen carefully to this entire interview… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41PALf9kzkc
Tarl Cabot: “Trump is owned, lock, stock and barrel, by the Diaspora. Ukraine is their second front.”
200 Years Together
Chapter One
Before the 19th Century
From the Beginnings in Khazaria
https://archive.org/details/200YearsTogether
It does beg the question; who precisely was “Frederick Christ Trump”, and why did he strive to be Shabbos Goy Extraordinaire?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Trump
PS: Màiri Anna MacLeod was from the far Outer Hebrides [Tong, Isle of Lewis]. Donald Trump, and even Barron Trump, both bear a strong resemblance to Màiri Anna MacLeod.
Maybe Trump stumbles into a two front war with direct engagement with Russians and Iranians. That should make America great again, right?
Third times the charm. Taiwan.
I figured the “pissed off” rant was more fake news, but apparently not. This, along with his bellicosity towards Iran is not good – the kind of s*** I don’t want to hear. It’s starting to look like Trump 2.0 is fizzling. What he needs to do is quit talking tough about those countries and start going after these F-ing judges that are jamming up his domestic agenda.
sadly, it turns out that biden was far more bolder than trump will ever be. of course everything biden did was horrible, but he didn’t let judges get in his way.
Almost hard to believe but it’s been like 4 or 5 weeks since we were all giddy at Trump dismantling USAID, locking down the border, and getting rid of affirmative action. To be fair, all those things are still in place, but since then, all we have gotten is total MIGA and it’s just embarrassing. We didn’t vote for more war in the Ukraine and for Trump to dismantle the First Amendment to protect Israel. Nobody advocated for RFK Jr. in HHS so he can declare antisemitism a public health hazard and demand Columbia explain why their student body has… Read more »
He has balls, but he’s basically an unguided missile.
It’s certainly a turning point in history. Russia is simply bypassing the American Empire despite GAE throwing everything except boots on the grounds. Btw, the fact that the boots on the ground threat is a bluff since we couldn’t gather, transport and supply a force that would matter is another sign of an exhausted empire.
GAE threw everything that it could at Russia – sanctions, the dollar and a huge, well-equipped proxy army – and lost. Ukraine will go down as our Syracuse. It’s new world.
oh there were US boots on the ground. now they are boots in the ground. jeebus it took the army 6 god damn days to get one vehicle out of a bog in lithuania?!
True. My point is that NATO could muster at most 100k-150k trained troops. It would take six months to a year to assemble, assuming Russia just lets them. This would strip every US base of trained combat and support personnel. If Russia allowed those troops into Ukr, they’d lose ~200-300 men a day (killed, wounded, exhausted), meaning you’d need to replace troops at that level for a year or so. This would never happen for a variety of reasons. GAE is all bluff when it comes to Ukr. The only leverage Trump has is that Russia would like to avoid… Read more »
If you want to know why Western politicians seem to be so clueless about so much, it is because they rely on the storytellers called the media for their version of reality. All over Washington, staffers for elected officials read that Times story, shocked to learn that the American military has been running the war from the start. Normal people have known this since day one because the internet exists and people use it, but elected officials get their reality from the media. Exactly. The PMC grew up with All the President’s Men, Network, Murphy Brown, House of Cards, The… Read more »
“The war in Ukraine will end by military means and then maybe there can be a negotiated settlement. That was the point Putin was making last week.” The attitude of the Russians all along has been that events on the battlefield will determine the new borders, the administration of the remaining rump Ukraine regime, and the peace settlement. They’ve been willing to listen to Trump, see what he has to say, what he has to offer. But he’s turned out to be nothing but a bloviating windbag, with little or no traction with the USA’s erstwhile European vassals. He’s overestimated… Read more »
Excellent post
I keep thinking of that thing you said a while ago. Something like things must be way worse than we think. I bet that was the best and most prescient synopsis. An incoherent office park by day and shopping mall by night that is for sale to the highest bidder is not going to be easy to live through.
It’s not at all clear to me whom we should be fighting in Europe.
It was clear to me from the start the goal of the Ukraine war was to get as many white Slavic orthodox men to kill each other as possible. They will NEVER stop pushing it . They will expand it to the rest of Europe once the Ukrainian the men are dead. look at what is going on in NATO/EU Europe. They are disqualifying and jailing any politician who doesn’t go along with the genocide of the native population. They will send their troops to Ukraine soon because they want french, german and British men be killed off too. Europe… Read more »
Surprise, surprise ziondon makes the same neocon decisions again. Listen, I know there wasn’t much choice, since the whole system is a progressive liberal fag order but I might have to agree with accelerationists from now on. What is there left but to finally get to to collapse of this disgusting white genocidal regime? Nothing is learned, nothing really changes, just a slower road to where we all need to get to before anything good ever happens for our people and culture.