Author Archives: thezman

Generational Musings

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Note: No show this week. A bolt of lightning took out one of my machines, the one I use to produce and edit the show. This happened yesterday, so I did not have time to make other arrangements. It is a pity as I had a great show planned. A new machine is on its so things should be back to normal next week. Today is a post from behind the Green Door that seems appropriate for the moment.

One of the more toxic aspects of modern politics is the generational stuff, which pits one generation of whites against another generation. While old people have always complained about the younger generation, it was historically in the context of concern for the future, not a competition for resources. In 20th century America, generational conflict became another exploitation vector by the ruling class.

That said, we are experiencing some weird generational warping. Baby Boomers, for example, came along in a unique time in history. They experienced the post-war expansion, the problems of the 1960’s and 1970’s and then the reforms that came in the 1980’s, which set off another run of good times. From the perspective of this generation, the system really works. It even fixes itself!

Younger generations have a different perspective, so their faith in the system is much lower and they are more open to questioning the system. The millennial that had to put up with diversity in school, along with endless lectures about diversity, even while enjoying material prosperity, is not going to be as patriotic about the American Way as his parents or grandparents.

Of course, the Zoomers are coming onto the scene as the American Empire shows all the signs of decline. It is an interesting contrast with the Boomers, who came on the scene when America was at her peak. The Boomers came along thinking everything was possible. The world was their oyster. The Zoomers came along in a time when people wonder if anything is possible.

There is something else. The Boomers were raised by a generation that was pretty sure that every problem had a solution. That solution, however, was not just ready to spring to your aid when you needed it. Like every generation before them, the Boomers were raised to make things, fix things and discover things on their own. While brimming with a sense of entitlement, they still had to make their way in the world.

In contrast, Zoomers were raised with the answers all around them. They have never known a time when you could not google the answer. This seems like a small thing, but it has an enormous cultural impact. For 10,000 years of human history, getting the answer meant work, real work and there was a good chance the answer was not available, but today it takes a few clicks and there is almost always an answer.

This contrast turns up in some strange ways. Here is a story about Zoomers bested by common office equipment. What is happening here is the young people are experiencing tools for the first time. A tool does nothing for you other than extend your own skills in some way. This seems strange to young people who look at everything as a technological shortcut to getting the desired result.

I have run into this in my work life. A story I love telling is about a summer intern we had about ten years ago. He broke the letter folding gizmo one day. He came into my office and told me the machine was not functioning. I told him it was probably a paper jam and told him that my tools were in the closet. Take it apart, clear the paper jam and reset the wheel that fed to paper through the machine.

He left and came back in a few minutes. He had no idea what he was looking for in the closet in terms of tools. I realized that he simply had no idea what I was asking of him, so I walked him through it. He looked on as I fixed the machine as if I was performing black magic. He actually asked me how I learned to do it. I showed him the instructions on the inside of the machine. He was still baffled.

Now that I am done with the old guy interlude, the Zoomers share something with the Boomers and that is being a unique generation. The Baby Boomers were the first generation to come into a world of mass prosperity. The Zoomers are the first generation raised on the internet. Both generations came into the world with expectations that were not like prior generations.

For the Boomers, this novel view of things was not much of a problem as the conditions that created the novel view have remained in place. For the Zoomers, it may not work out the same way. For them, life is going to be a real struggle as the country falls prey to its demographic changes. There will be no button to push to solve the reality of race and no place to hide from it.

This is going to make for some interesting generational conflict. The advice from old people will make as much sense as Charlie Brown’s teacher. “Pull yourself up by your bootstraps” sounds like madness when the problem is demographics. On the other hand, the Zoomers blaming the Boomers for the decline of the country is going to strike the old folks as nothing but the mewing of ingrates.

Another weird thing will be the fact that the Zoomers distrust the American Way, but completely trust the technology of their life. Prior generations viewed technology as a tool to be used like any other tool. Zoomers think of technology as a natural and normal part of their ecosystem. They trust their mobile device more than they trust flesh and blood people. That is something new.

Regardless, the future belongs to the Zoomers as they will be around for it, so whatever skills they came into the world with will be what they use to navigate their way. If they are being bested by the copier, one should not be optimistic. Maybe the marching morons problem transcends demographics. On the other hand, maybe training on the office copier turns out to be good training for the war ahead.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

Know Your Enemy

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The German philosopher Carl Schmitt observed that politics is about the friend – enemy distinction, played out in public. Everyone has people they call friends and people they think of as adversaries or enemies. This only becomes political when others outside these relations are called upon to pick sides. Politics is about groups of people opposing one another in public and forcing others to pick sides. The winner is the one whose group dominates the others.

The thing is, it is never easy to know your friends in politics, but the only way to survive is to know your enemies. Those would be the groups whose very existence depends upon your demise. Friendships are transactional as they are situational. When your interests align with those of another faction, you are friends while you have some common interest. When conditions change, the friendship ends. Enemies are always enemies because who they are the negation of you.

This is why conservatism has never amounted to much in America. They insist that politics do not exist and instead public policy is decided by factual accuracy and the best ideas to solve problems. While the people we insist on calling the Left run around playing politics, the conservatives spend their days making impressive charts and graphs explaining why they are right. Occasionally they win an election, only to be outclassed by their opponents once in office.

You saw this clearly with Trump. Despite all of his faults, and he has many, he is a guy who completely believes the civic nationalist creed. He is the living embodiment of those School House Rock civics lessons. When he won in 2016, he just assumed everyone would have to respect the will of the people. After all, this is how our system is supposed to work. Instead, he was routed by the schemers, conmen and deviants that dominate Washington politics.

We are seeing the other side of this with the neocons. They do not care for Ron DeSantis, but they can work with him. He was a reliable vote for their warmongering when he was in the House. He has the endorsement of the House of Bush, so even though he opposes their domestic agenda, they can work with him on their larger plan to blow up the world. More important, he can be useful in undermining support for Trump in the coming Republican primary.

In other words, they do not necessarily see him as a friend, but he is not an enemy and because they share his current enemy, they can quietly work with him towards the goal of toppling Trump. The trouble is DeSantis has a very thin skin, so he could not resist taking cheap shots at Trump with regards to the indictment business. He also flip-flopped on his Ukraine statements, probably fearing that he may have jeopardized his support from the Kagan cult.

As an aside, Russia, the war in Ukraine and the subject of peace is becoming a central issue for the Republican base. This is a carry over from the Bush years when the party lied about the Iraq invasion. Since then the party base has become increasingly skeptical about foreign policy. Republican voters also tend to be practical, so they question spending hundreds of billions on foreigners when the country seems to be falling apart from decades of neglect.

In the 2016 election, the litmus test issues were immigration and trade. Trump went one way and the field went the other. It was a strange thing to see when logic said the field, or some of it, would be smart to follow Trump. We are now seeing the same thing with foreign policy issues. Opposing the neocons is a good vote getter, but bad for making friends in the regime, so the field, including DeSantis, is racing to sound like Lady Bugs Graham, while Trump sounds like Pat Buchanan.

Putting that aside, the friend enemy distinction sounds simple in the abstract, but in practice it is very difficult. Most people make the fatal mistake of looking for friends, rather than identifying their enemies. Note that conservatives have said for years that you should vote for someone not against them. This is part of the conditioning to keep their voters from focusing on the enemy. It is a clever trick that has allowed them to profit from finking on their voters.

Politics, at its most basic, turns on accurately identifying the enemy. Friends may turn out to be unreliable or stupid, but the enemy is always the enemy. The surest way to identify your enemies is to look for those who demand that you place your interests second to those of some alien group of political actors. For example, the people telling you that Ukraine should come before your kid’s school or that you must impoverish yourself in the name of climate change. Those people are your enemy.

For dissidents, and a growing number of Americans, the system itself is the enemy because it is based on denying you any benefits from the system. In fact, the system has evolved to harm the bulk of the population. That means you participating in it profits the forces that are committed to your destruction. In this regard, the Ron versus Don charade being put on by the mass media is another way for the enemy to lure decent people into supporting their own demise.

In the end, the simplicity of the Carl Schmitt formulation is the place to start when looking upon the looming election circus. First identify your enemies, then look for anyone that promises to harm them. The goal of politics is always to harm the enemy and profit your cause. If the enemy is not obvious, then the process itself is the enemy and you are best served being an amused observer. Not participating is the most political of actions, because it declares the process the enemy.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

Escaping The 20th Century

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It is 2023 and middle-aged conservative pundits around the country are wondering if maybe today is the day when they bring back the sock tie. Perhaps break out that “Gipper” lapel pin they got in college. After all, it is high time that this country be reminded of the greatness of the Reagan years. Then they think better of it, as they do not want to ruffle any feathers. After all, that is not who they are. Conservative principle requires conforming to current norms.

A bit ridiculous, perhaps, but it is not far off. This post by conservative pundit Jeremy Carl on Twitter is a good example. Ronald Reagan has been dead for close to twenty years and he has been out of public view for thirty years. For the tens of millions of people who entered the country after Reagan opened the border, he is at best a guy in their history books, no more meaningful to them than the other long dead white guys responsible for the scourge of whiteness, they are told.

In other words, Reagan and the politics of his time are about as relevant to this age as those old clothing styles in the closets of conservative pundits. Reagan and his movement were a product of the 20th century, primarily the Cold War. What we call conservatism was just a radical approach to fighting communism. Note that Reagan’s lasting influence is all negative. Corporatism, open borders and a massive military are what he passed onto the 21st century.

It would be unfair to lay the present crisis at the feet of Reagan as he was a man of his time dealing with the issues of his age. He could not know that his military buildup would lead to decades of reckless and pointless violence. No one imagined that his economic reforms would lead to the financialization of the economy. Global capital with the reach we are seeing was unimageable in the 1980’s. The world “trillion” was an abstraction for most people.

Even so, it is not hard to make a case that in the long run, the world would have been a better place if Carter had won in 1980. The neocons would have been cut off at the pass, thus sparing the world of their senseless violence. We most likely would not have got the same currency, banking and regulatory reforms that we got under Reagan, so we may have avoided the blossoming of global corporatism. This is all speculation, but you can make an argument for 1980 being the inflexion point.

Putting that aside, conservatives are not the only ones trapped in amber. The people they pretend to oppose are also spending every night at the museum. After the Cold War, what we call the Left went back to put on their old 1960’s radical outfits so they could relive their salad days, but this time as the man. For the last thirty years it has been a revenge tour by the culture wreckers who thought they got short changed when they rioted in their youth.

It went unnoticed, but in the Obama years, it was if they were working from a list of slights they endured over the prior decades. The Iran deal was about avenging the “arms-for-hostages” issue. The Russian reset that everyone now forgets was about avenging Carter. When they were not revisiting past defeats, they were reviving old causes like black radicalisms and sexual liberation. Just like their conservative buddies, the so-called Left is trapped in the 20th century.

This weird dance through the halls of the museum of the 20th century is most obvious with the war in the Ukraine. This post by Thaddeus McCotter at American Greatness is emblematic of the mindset. The triumphalism following the fall of the Soviet Empire froze everything in place. No one on either side of the political class can think beyond the point when the West declared the end of history. Therefore, nothing can be allowed to change from that point in time.

Alexander Dugin has written about how the end of the Cold War was a disaster, which strikes most Western readers as sour grapes. It certainly was a disaster for Russia, but who cares about Russia? She deserved it for losing. Of course, what he meant is that the Cold War provided a moral framework for the world. When it abruptly ended, that moral framework ended with it. All of a sudden, there were no rules and what has followed has been chaos from the Eurasian perspective.

From the Western perspective, it has been worse than chaos. “If God does not exist, everything is permitted” is a common Russian expression. In fact, it greatly influenced the thinking of Nietzsche. For the West, the requirements of the Cold War filled the role of God, limiting the excesses of the ruling class. When those restraints were removed, what followed was an orgy of excess leading to the current crisis, made worse by rulers who are trapped in the past century.

Max Planck famously said, “Science advances one funeral at a time” and that may be what must happen for the West to escape the current crisis. As the geriatric class of leaders fades from the seen, they will take their antiquated worldview with them, leaving open the possibility for a new world view. Whether the West is governable as currently composed will be the defining question, but it will not be answered by those old men with their sock ties and Reagan memorabilia.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

Ron Versus Don

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On social media, a mini-war has broken out between the pro-DeSantis faction and the pro-Trump faction. An example of the former is Pedro Gonzalez who spends his days on Twitter insulting Trump supporters. An example of the latter is Scott Greer, who also spends his days in Twitter, but insulting DeSantis people. Both may be paid “influencers” but that is not entirely clear. The DeSantis people are mostly anti-Trump people, while the Trump people are mostly pro-Trump.

That last bit is important. DeSantis has mostly attracted the on-line influencers who feel insulted by Trump for some reason. Most were superfans of Trump in 2016, doing the whole god-emperor thing, but then soured on him for some reason. Ann Coulter is the queen of this crowd. She now has the same enthusiasm for DeSantis as she had for Trump, Romney, Christie and George Bush. If history is a guide, Queen Ann will one day be trashing DeSantis on the Bill Maher show.

The basic argument from the DeSantis partisans is that he has a chance to win the general election, while Trump has no chance. More important, DeSantis knows how to govern, which he has proven in Florida. There is no doubt that he has been a great governor for Florida. He also has a very friendly state legislature, which makes it simple for him to get things done. There is no data to suggest he has a better shot against Biden than Trump, but that is the claim.

The truth is electability has never been a factor in these races. Most voters are not like most Republican politicians in that they do not negotiate with themselves. They vote for the candidate they like, not the candidate that a conservative commentator swears will be acceptable to the Democrats. Even if their preferred option has no chance in the general, most voters will go for the guy who speaks to them. It turns out that most people are decent and honest, not scheming weasels.

That is the argument for Trump. Despite his faults, and he has many, he represents those decent and honest people. He is a symbol, more than a candidate. Supporting Trump is about opposing the people who rule over us. It is as close as we get in America to class warfare. Trump’s voters are the great unwashed, the forgotten Americans who hate what has happened to their country. Trump is not the solution, but he makes noise on their behalf. That is enough.

Both camps are right in the same way that two people who have different favorite ice creams are right, even though they disagree. There is no empirical argument in favor of either guy as it is purely a matter of opinion. Pedro Gonzales is mad at Trump for not being the savior he hoped for in 2016, so he is has jumped on the DeSantis side, while Scott Greer still loves Trump and now hates DeSantis. Their arguments in favor of their guy are cognitively meaningless.

That said, we can assess the electability claim. The place to start is the 2020 election broken out by electoral votes. All of those national polls that people wave around are meaningless as we pick presidents by indirect election. In the last election, Biden won 303 electoral votes, while Trump got 235. The threshold to win is 270. There were a lot of shenanigans in the 2020 election, but they were repeated in 2022, so we have to treat them as a feature, rather than a bug.

The next step in assessing the electability claim is to ask which states are they mostly likely to flip into the Republican column. You can quickly rule out WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, ME, VT, NH, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, VA, HI and IL. That leaves NV, AZ, MN, WI, MI, PA and GA. There are eighty-seven electors in those states. A Republican will need to flip some combination of states to gain thirty-five electors. He will also have to hold the states that Trump won in 2020.

The state most likely to flip is Georgia. The Republican Party there has started to figure out what is happening to them and they have adjusted. The 2022 election was a small wake up call for the white vote in the state. That gets the Republicans halfway to their goal, but then things get dicey. Arizona and Nevada appear to be fortified for democracy now, as we saw in the 2022 election. Pennsylvania, of course, is heavily fortified for democracy, as we saw in the Fetterman race.

This means a Republican will need to win Michigan or Minnesota and Wisconsin, something has not been done in generations. In 2016, Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin, but lost Minnesota. It was close, so it cannot be ruled out entirely, but it is not the way to bet. Realistically, the only path to victory for the Republicans is to take back Georgia and then win Michigan, but they will still be short four electoral votes, so they have to focus on one other state as well.

What this tells us is the odds for a Republican win are awfully long. They have to win states that are mostly in the other camp by default. Then they have to defend their own states, some of which are trending the wrong way. The Yankee invasion of North Carolina is turning the state into Virginia. Texas is slowly becoming California as those weirdos arrive in droves. Barring some sort of black swan event, Joe Biden will cruise to victory in 2024 no matter his opponent.

What this says is that the choice for Republicans is not centered on electability, but who they prefer to see lose in 2024. The neocons and conservatives prefer to see Trump lose, but they are so full of hatred of white people now, they will root against him in the primary, even if it works against their interests. The DeSantis fans are coming around to the same view, thinking that Trump is some sort of bad juju that must be exorcised in order to return to the 1980’s.

For dissidents, it is a different question. DeSantis is a good governor and it would be better if he finished the job and set an example for others. We do not need another too nice to win loser presidential candidate. Trump is a crazy man who sends the bad guys into paroxysms of vengeful hysteria. He was a lousy president, but he has proven to be a great wrecking ball. His revenge tour, especially if he is indicted, will be the mother of all crap shows. A good time will be had by all.

On the other hand, DeSantis losing the general after the party swore he was better than Trump, discredits the whole process and drives home the point that we live in a one party system now. Many will assume that he was the victim of more democracy fortification, while others will read the map, analyze the demographics and see that there is no path forward in the current system. Reasonable Ron losing could be worse for the system than Demonic Don losing again.

In the end, it is probably a coin flip. Those who have yet to wake up to the present reality will place their hopes according to their desires. To paraphrase the American transcendentalist Theodore Parker, we should not pretend to fully comprehend the political universe, because the arc of history is long. We can only see a bit of it and make calculations accordingly. While the arc of liberal democracy is long, we can be sure that it bends towards civilizational disaster.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

We Are Argentina Now

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Note #1: Behind the green door is a post about stupid people, a post about those rotten kids and their pivot tables and the Sunday podcast. You can sign up for a green door account at SubscribeStar or Substack.

The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have for a long time now been wrestling with a problem that is truly novel. They find themselves in an interest rate trap, which means they need to restore borrowing rates to something close to the historic norm, but doing so puts the global banking system at risk. The political class is just as hooked on cheap money as the bankers, so their is no appetite for a Paul Volker like approach to solving the money problem in the West.

For a long time, the problems were abstract. Everyone knew that near zero interest rates would one day create big problems, but in the here and now they made all of the important people happy. The reckless and insane response to Covid by Western ruling classes moved the problem into the domain of reality. Massive spending by government put enormous amounts of cash into the hands of regular people, not just the bankers, and those regular people started spending it.

Compounding this was the decline in global demand for dollars. Since the 1990’s, the Chinese economy was able to soak up extra dollars and euros. Other parts of Asia could also be counted on to take dollars in the form of investment. The massive liquidity in the banking system was, in effect, sequestered from the retail economy of Western countries, so the impact was low. That and the rest of the world was happy to hold euros, dollars and bonds in those currencies.

Covid was an accelerant in many ways, but one very important way was in regards to the Chinese economy. Central to the long term plans of China is to boost domestic demand and reduce her dependence on exports to the West. Lock downs and the subsequent decline in global commerce accelerated the process. China came out of Covid with far less demand for Western investment. Those extra dollars and euros are retuning to their makers.

It is looking like the insane response by the collective West to the war in the Ukraine is another accelerant to a process that was slowly building steam. Cutting Russia off from the “rules based international order” was a wake up call for the large, non-Western economies of the world. China understood right away that the dollar was Washington’s primary weapon in international affairs. The Saudis also came to see the problem with depending upon Washington to abide by the rules.

More important, the Russian economy survived the assault by Washington and she successfully defended the ruble. When Russia demanded payment in rubles from Western nations and they went along with it, the world changed. All of a sudden, the multipolar world with multiple competing currencies came into focus. China, Russia, India and the OPEC countries have now set off on a path where the dollar and euro no longer have a special place in global trade.

The enormity of this politically and economically cannot be overstated. This week the ruler of China is making a visit to Moscow. Generations of American policy makers have worked to avoid this meeting, but the current crop in charge of American foreign policy wrecked all of that and now we have an alliance between Russia and China. The world’s largest economy is now a strategic partner with the world’s biggest nuclear power, in opposition to the Global American Empire.

The global realignment does not stop there. The Russians have been brokering a peace between the Turks and the Syrians. The goal is to squeeze out the Americans, who are in Syria stealing Syrian oil and gas. China has brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which promises to reorder the region. The oil producing hub of the world is suddenly in the orbit of China and Russia. Economics follows politics, so it is not hard to see what this does to the dollar and euro.

For the last year, the Fed and ECB have been facing a problem. There is far too much money in the system and the demand for their money is in decline globally, which means they have to remove money from the system. They tried to ignore the problem by spinning yarns about inflation being transitory, but rocket high food bills made that story impossible to maintain. The politicians demanded the Fed “fix” the economy for them, so the Fed started to raise rates.

That is what brings us back to the interest rate trap. The entire Western banking system depends on exclusive access to cheap money. This is their margin. They no longer provide much in the way of essential services. Much of what the banking system does could be automated at this point. The profits come from operating a casino in which the house arbitrages the difference between what it pays for money and what the suckers on the other side pay for money.

If all of a sudden the price the house pays for money closes with that which the suckers are paying, then the casino goes bust. That is what we are see now. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were just money laundering schemes for plutocrats. Once interest rates went up just a little, they were no longer viable. Credit Suisse was just bailed out by the Swiss National Bank for the same reason. These banks could only exist in the world of free money to the banks and their clients.

Over the weekend, the Fed with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank announced a global bailout of the Western banking system. They are offering unlimited cash in exchange for the illiquid assets on the bank’s books. The reason they did this is they know that every bank in the West has the same problem as Credit Suisse. That is their liabilities outweigh their assets so they are effectively broke.

Of course, you cannot fight inflation while showering the system with cash, which means the effort to rein in inflation has come to an end. The Fed will try to limit the swapping of bad assets for cash by substituting treasuries, but this sort of legerdemain is just so they can continue the game of make believe. High inflation is now the new normal in the West because it is impossible to raise rates. The West has turned itself into Argentina through bad policy and worse politics.

For generations now people have warned about the long term cost of living on borrowed money, but they were mostly wrong. Living on borrowed money is self-correcting in that the lender eventually stops lending. What the West faces is a problem where the lender cannot not stop lending. The only way to sustain this now is for the people to be impoverished through systemic inflation. Inflation is now the banker’s friend, because it promises to keep the cheap money flowing.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

Lessons From The Troubles

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Like so much from the 20th century, The Troubles has largely been forgotten, despite the fact it loomed large in the last half the century. It is a good example of how the cultural shadow of the Global American Empire warped everything. Meddling by important people in the empire played a huge role in the conflict. It was also one of the justifications for flinging open our borders.

Then all of a sudden, the conflict ended. Right around when the Cold War ended, the two sides decided it was time to get on with making peace. Just like that this generational event disappeared from our consciousness. Ireland quickly moved to the “Celtic Tiger” stage and then to the bust-out stage. Now Ireland is just another node on the Global American Empire trying to commit suicide.

Interestingly, The Troubles are a good example for dissidents trying to figure out how to combat the metastasizing blob that is the managerial state. It is not a perfect analogy, but it is a good example of a long running revolt against a cultural force. The British were not in it for the money. They were motivated by cultural factors and the Irish, for their part, rallied to their cultural banners in resistance.

Of course, there are good lessons and bad lessons from everything. The Irish won their freedom only to give it away to globalist interests, far more sinister and deadly to the Irish than the British. If you hold the views of the typical IRA man in today’s Ireland, you will be de-platformed and perhaps even imprisoned for blasphemy. The Irish are literally trying to erase themselves from the book of life.

For sites like this to exist, it requires people like you chipping in a few bucks a month to keep the lights on and the people fed. Five bucks a month is not a lot to ask. If you don’t want to commit to a subscription, make a one time donation via crypto. Or, you can send money to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. You can also use PayPal to send a few bucks. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

This Week’s Show

Contents

  • History of the Troubles
  • Lessons of identity
  • Lessons of Conflict
  • Lesson of Struggle

Direct Download, The iTunes, Google Play, iHeart Radio, RSS Feed

Full Show On Spreaker

Full Show On Odysee

Full Show On Rumble

Save The Future, Kill The Past

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Montesquieu observed that each form of political system had what he called a spring, but what we would call a mindset, that animated the people. For example, in aristocratic systems the people were motivated by honor. You wanted to please the man you served, so you were loyal to him. In a republican system, the citizens were loyal to the institutions and processes. You served the office, rather than the man. Tyrants, of course, relied upon the fear of the people.

Democracy was not mentioned and liberal democracy as we understand it did not exist, so Montesquieu did not have a spring for these. What we think we know about Athenian society tells us that morality was the spring of their democracy. The people were motivated by what they understand to be the shared beliefs of the people. In fact, Socrates was put on trial for impiety. He questioned the generally held beliefs of the people, which was viewed as a threat to order.

Managerialism was not something Montesquieu could discuss, because it did not exist until long after his time, but we can see it operates a lot like democracy. As with democracy, there is the need for consensus. Dissent is viewed with suspicion as it calls into question the majority’s sense that they are acting in the best interests of the whole of society. Therefore, everyone seeks to be viewed as pious, the more pious the better, so it is a race to the center of the consensus.

The thing is, this is not a front brain activity. People are not looking around on every issue, counting noses and anticipating the majority. Instead it is an instinctual thing, arrived at by interacting with the people in close proximity. It is why the metaphor of the hive is so important. Like drones in a hive, the people in the managerial class do not know why they believe what they believe. They just know everyone they know supports men in dresses, so it must be the right thing to do.

We have a couple of good recent examples from the courts. In theory, this is where kooky beliefs like transgenderism should slam into reality. The courts exist only because they operate upon fixed rules. Even the subversives of the legal profession acknowledge that it is a rules-based system, even as they gnaw away at those rules with clever manipulation of the language. The law is rules and without rules there is no law, so this should be the graveyard of belief.

In the case of the Proud Boys, who are being charged with trying to overthrow the government, the FBI accidently revealed that they had been actively working to destroy exculpatory evidence and frame the defendants. In most cases, this would have resulted in the case being dismissed with prejudice. In some cases, the defense would simply use it to destroy the credibility of the state. In this case, the judge is preventing the defense from using this in their defense.

In a related case, Douglas Mackey, the man behind the infamous Twitter account Ricky Vaughn, is on trial for being funny at the expense of Hillary Clinton. The judge in the case has denied the defense the right to confront his accuser. There is a secret witness that the defense is barred from knowing about in advance. More importantly, the judge has laughed off a clear case of witness intimidation by the state. Apparently, prosecutors had the SPLC harass a defense witness.

This is not the first time we have seen federal judges throw the law out the window in order to persecute people with beliefs contrary to the ruling consensus. The judge in the Michael Flynn case went to the Supreme Court demanding the right to be both judge and prosecutor in that trial. In fact, this is becoming so common it is right to view the federal system as something like Sharia courts. The written law and the traditions behind it are unimportant. Managerial morality is the standard.

The reason for this is the people who exist in these systems feel they must be seen as pious by everyone else in the system. If you are a judge providing a fair trial for the Proud Boys or Douglas Mackey, you are suspect. Your friends and associates in the system will begin to question your commitment. After all, everyone knows these are bad people who must be punished. A judge that allows for these bad people to avoid punishment could be viewed as a bad person.

The way to understand what is happening is to imagine a religious cult taking over the primary institutions of society. Imagine if the Scientologists gained control of the judiciary and started demanding thetan readings in court. The irrationality of thetan levels is unimportant. The people who believe it are not about to be talked out of it and even if that was possible, the selection pressure favors believers. Therefore, faking it has far more benefit than questioning it.

This is why facts and reason have no role in our debates. The people in charge either believe the current fads or they are pretending to believe them because that is what is required for membership in their portion of the polyarchy. Judges burn law books, carnies burn Bibles and politicians burn the Constitution not because they are destroyers, but because the system requires it. If the system needs the Bible, then they will quickly become Bible defenders.

Another troubling fact about the current crisis is that the existence of this hive mentality atop the system shows that the current structure of our cultural, political and economic universe is what makes this outcome possible. Make a small change in how America evolved in the 20th century and we get a vastly different result. What this means is changing the people gets more of the same, even more extreme results, because the system is tuned to produce the hive mind.

Much in the same way that the end of the aristocratic order required the French Revolution and the American Revolution, the end of this crisis in the West means erasing the history that made this system possible. Revolution puts a period on a historical process and begins a new process. The end of managerial polyarchy requires the repudiation of the history that created it. The system and the process that created it is the enemy, not the people in it.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

The Shifting Ukraine Narrative

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Just a few months ago, Western media was hailing the wonderfulness of their bosses in the political class over the decision to send tanks to Ukraine. The West was going to send modern battle tanks. The first batch would be Leopard II tanks from Germany followed by Abrams tanks from America. On top of that, the Poles donated their Patriot system to Ukraine. This would cure the missile problem. Maybe F-16’s were not far behind, the media told us.

Here we are entering the spring and the mood has shifted. This story in the Washington Post would have been called Putin propaganda a few months ago. It explains the terrible condition of the Ukrainian army. Six months of Russian grinding with artillery and now air power has killed tens of thousands of Ukraine’s best soldiers. This story published in Politico is about the growing troubles in the collective West over how to go forward with the Ukraine war.

One reason the mood has shifted in the West is it is impossible to hide the reality on the battlefield much longer. Reliable estimates say the Ukrainians have lost 200,000 soldiers in the last year. That is killed in action. An equal number have been wounded, with the majority unable to return to service. On the Russian side, the death toll is much lower, around 20,000, with two or three times that wounded. This disparity means it is a matter of time before the Ukrainians crack.

There is also the fact that there is no way for the West to change the numbers of this war with methods or tactics. The West committed Ukraine to a style of fighting that cannot now be abandoned in favor of a new approach. They are throwing all available resources into defending every inch of turf. The trouble is, the West is running low on weapons and ammunition. An army that is low on men and material is an army headed for defeat, under any conditions.

Of course, what we are seeing is a change in the narrative. The old narrative was based on the Russians running out of men and material and the heroic Ukrainians, armed with weapons from their morally superior backers in the West, would go on the great counter offensive and drive the Russians from the Donbas. That has been the story for a year, but now that story is inoperative. Since Western leaders live in a fictional world of their own creation, they need a new narrative.

The new narrative will probably blame the Ukrainian leadership for the failures on the battlefield and maybe the failure to conduct negotiations. There are rumors being floated in Western media that NATO commanders have been telling the Ukrainians to abandon Bakhmut, but Zelensky has ordered a defense of the city. As the envelopment of Ukrainian forces in the region becomes more obvious, Western leaders will get more chatty about how this is the fault of Zelensky.

For those unfamiliar, Bakhmut is a central stronghold in the center of what had been called the Zelensky line in Donbas. The Russians have been laying siege to this heavily fortified stronghold for months. They have fire control over the main roads and the Wagner group is conducting operations in the city. More important, a larger encirclement is forming to contain about 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers. This is a big battle that the Ukrainians are losing.

Another subplot to the new narrative emerged last month when Washington started floating claims about who bombed the Nord Stream pipelines. First was the story planted in the New York Times claiming that a couple of guys in a canoe blew up these underwater pipelines at the direction of Ukraine. Then the Wall Street Journal was given a taste with this story. The European press was given a taste with this story posted in the Financial Times.

The absurdity of the claims is not important. There is simply no way that a group of Ukrainian partisans pulled off this attack. What is important is that these stories seeded a new narrative about the Ukrainian leadership. Instead of being heroic defenders of freedom, they are erratic and unreliable. They do things like assassinate the daughter of Alexander Dugin without telling their Western sponsors. You can easily see where this will lead once it is time to exit the current narrative.

Another sign that the tide is turning against the blood-drenched Kagan cult over Ukraine policy is the response to the Russian downing of an American drone. The United States has been providing intelligence to the Ukrainian army since the start. They have satellites over Ukraine and use these advanced surveillance drones. The Russians could blind the satellites and take down the drones, but that would risk escalation, so they have been quiet about it until now.

There can be no doubt that the decision to take down the drone was made at the highest levels with Kremlin permission. The changing reality on the battlefield and the changing rhetoric from the West probably led to this. The Russians wanted to test if the changing rhetoric can be trusted. Washington’s tepid response to the incident suggests that there is no appetite for escalation. The Ukraine party in the West is winding down and everyone is thinking about heading home.

This does not mean the end of the war is imminent. Right now, the Ukrainians are locked into a strategy of fighting to the last man. The Russian are happy to oblige as they now think the only solution is a military solution. They need to grind down and break the Ukrainian army. Then they will impose their preferred political solution on Ukraine, whether it is with Zelensky or his successor. This process will probably take the rest of this year, perhaps longer.

What comes next for the West is plotting out the rest of the narrative in the coming months when it becomes clear that Ukraine cannot launch an offensive. This will close out the old narrative completely. Ukrainian tanks will not be driving through Moscow after all, so the new narrative will need a new ending. This new ending will allow the West to declare that whatever result the Russians impose will fall far short of their goals, thus scoring a win for Western narrative makers.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

The Great Reckoning

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For generations, going back to the middle of the last century, people have been warning about systemic problems in American society. Some of the warnings have been tricks to continue the cultural revolution. Some have been part of the financial legerdemain that defines so much of our economy and politics. There have been, however, many sincere warnings about long term structural problems. Out of necessity and expediency they were ignored, but that may be about to change.

The most obvious is the most immediate. Going back to the Clinton years people who understood money were warning about loose money policy. People forget that Clinton winning was a surprise. After all, Bush came into the election with a huge war victory and a solid economy. The Reagan expansion was viewed not only as a miracle of Republican policy, but a rebuke of left-wing economics. Then the economy soured before the elections and Clinton was president.

Much of official Washington blamed the tight money policies of Alan Greenspan for tanking the economy under Bush. Team Clinton made sure this could never happen again, especially with a Democrat in office. Loose money became official policy and only got worse with each administration. By the Obama years, we were in a world of Zero Interest Rate Policy. Now those ZIRP chickens are coming home to roost in the form of a systemic banking failure.

No one should be deceived by what is happening. Last weekend, the Federal Reserve decided that the banks are all broke due to holding assets that have a declining market value, so the Federal Reserve effectively nationalized the banks. The only way they can regain control of money policy is to eliminate the market for long dated bonds by promising to buy them at face value. The Federal Reserve has nationalized the banks by nationalizing the bond market.

This is required to avoid a bank collapse but also allow for the long overdue reorganization of the financial sector. A generation of free money has turned Wall Street into a drug addict. It is entirely organized around getting the narcotic of free money from the government, rather than the normal practice of banking. All of its schemes are designed not to create value in the economy but to generate the need for more free money, a portion of which ends up in executive pay.

This did not happen in isolation. The great auctioning off of the manufacturing base that began in the 1980’s has finally caught up to America. The subtext to the Ukraine war is the fact that America no longer has the ability to make the weapons it requires to wage war on the world. Russia, with a third of the population, can now make more weapons for war than America. Her production of ammunition dwarfs what America can muster, which is why Russia is slowly grinding down the Ukrainians.

Of course, one main reason for the auctioning off of the manufacturing base is it raised quick money to invest in the rigged casino that is Wall Street. This fact was masked to a great degree by cheap consumer goods. In fact, the culture of cheap consumer goods has justified all of the nation wrecking policies. Everything from open borders to wholesale political corruption have been justified by cheap lawn care and cheap products sold in big box stores.

The price tag for decades of cheap goods underwritten by the sale of the manufacturing base is now coming due. The only thing America makes now is sexual deviance and lectures in favor of sexual deviance. It turns out that there is no global market for rainbow colored marital devices and films promoting the culture around them, which means America does not have a real economy. The ongoing economic crisis is about to get much worse as that reality becomes clear.

In fairness, some of the proceeds from auctioning off of the manufacturing base went into the technology sector. In the fullness of time, the robot historians may remember America for having singlehandedly created the technological revolution. This has changed the world. The trouble is, the technological revolution ended decades ago, but Silicon Valley continues to consume trillions in money. With the collapse of SVB, that great money drain is now ending.

The war with Russia and the looming war with China has also brought other chickens home to roost. For a long time people have been warning about the military industrial complex and its addiction to expensive, high tech weapons. Those whiz-bang systems look great, but they are not what wins wars. What wins a war are the tools the average soldier uses to kill the enemy. We no longer bother making them and instead focus on rocket ships and space lasers.

What the war in Ukraine has revealed is that NATO would have to use nuclear weapons in a war against Russia, because NATO lacks the men and machines to fight a ground war against the Russians. Most NATO countries would run out of ammunition in a few weeks and have to surrender. Against China, the American military would deliver some serious early blows, but then run out of supplies. Chinese manufacturing capacity is now greater than America and Europe combined.

Overlaying all of this is the crisis of competence. The SVB fiasco is a great example of a problem that permeates American society. Instead of rewarding skill and accomplishment, our system is rigged to reward nonwhites at the explicit expense of whites, especially white males. The only market that is booming in America is the racial revenge market and the result is colorful people in positions of authority who lack the basic skills to do the jobs they have been given.

Thirty years ago, people warned about this. What started as tolerance in the 1980’s, became sensitivity in the 1990’s, then diversity in the new century. It has now turned into a full blown cult of anti-whiteness. While towns in Ohio suffer from an ecological disaster, the people in charge fret of racist sidewalks. Corporate America is more concerned with its ESG and DEI scores than its financial stability. We have combined demographic reality with anti-white fanaticism into a ruling ethic.

No society can run this way. Good luck fighting China with a rainbow coalition of drag diverse drag queens trying to operate space guns. Good luck weathering a reorganization of the financial system when the banks are run by people who were just recently coaxed from caves by European explorers. Imagine surviving an end of empire crisis with the productive portion of society seething with rage at the fanatics who brought about this disaster.

One could go on a long time listing the things that should never have been allowed to happen that are now turning up in the nation’s crisis list. All of these are the result of bad polices hatched in the late 20th century and used to loot the country by the new generations of rulers ushered in by the Clintons. The bill for the great bust-out is now coming due and there is no avoiding it. Like drunks at closing time, we await the bill for generations of reckless behavior.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.

Crisis In The Clouds

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Note #1: Behind the green door is a post about Kanye West, a post about the nuts and bolts of this bank crisis and the Sunday podcast. You can sign up for a green door account at SubscribeStar or Substack.

Note #2: The White Art Collective is putting together a film and they issued a casting call for those interesting in acting. They have crowdfunded the project and produced a trailer for the film. Details on how to contact them are here.

Note #3: Some may have noticed that my Twitter account has been restored and I have created a Rumble channel. I doubt I will do much with the Twitter account, but I am kicking around the idea of doing some live shows on Rumble.

One of the underappreciated properties of managerialism is how the managerial elite begin to look like the elite of a bureaucracy. The people at the top of the various pillars of power begin to think like the people in charge of the Post Office in that they care primarily for the power and privilege’s of their power center. We are getting a glimpse of this with the evolving financial crisis that was set in motion by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week.

The bank started to run into trouble when the Federal Reserve started raising rates in order to combat inflation. Rates have been near zero for so long that it became the new normal, leading to  activity that otherwise would never get financed. When money is cheap, the appetite for risk-taking is high. When money has been cheap for a generation, risk-taking is no longer seen as risk-taking. It is simply how things are done, until money stops being cheap, which is what is happening now.

Despite the bizarre devotion to the cult of diversity by the people running SVB, the bank itself does not appear to have been poorly managed. To date no violations of the law have been suggested. Instead, the bank was the victim of changing conditions that suddenly made their model unworkable. In the world of banking, when your model becomes unworkable it means you are running out of money. A bank without money is an abandoned building.

SVB’s clients were mostly startups, tech companies and their corresponding venture capital firms. The bank helped facilitate funding for new companies and existing companies that are growing. Private investors kept their money at the bank and the firms they were bankrolling also kept their money at the bank. Because borrowing rates were near zero, the bank could lend to the customers of their preferred customers, the private investors, at attractive rates.

When the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates to combat inflation, everything based on cheap money was thrown into crisis. Those private investors suddenly had more attractive options than startups. Those startups suddenly found it hard to borrow money at tolerable rates. The startups then started to draw down on their cash reserves and the private investors began to move their money to more profitable places, thus creating a cash crisis for the bank.

That is the second problem, the very serious problem, that has broad implications for the entire system. To raise cash, Silicon Valley Bank first elected to sell assets like treasuries and mortgage backed securities. In the near zero interest rate world, these were as good as cash. In the time of rising rates, these very low yield instruments are not in demand, so they had to be heavily discounted. SVB had to take a two billion dollar write down when they sold these assets.

Since every bank in America, possibly the Western world, holds treasuries and long dated mortgage backed securities, it means every bank has the same problem as this bank in that they have assets with a book value above market value. Some estimates suggest there is a trillion dollar gap in the system due to this problem. In 2008 when the system came close to collapse, the problem was about a trillion and half, so you can see why the bankers are in a panic.

This is where we see the bureaucratic nature of the system. Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: First, there will be those who are devoted to the goals of the organization. Secondly, there will be those dedicated to the organization itself. The Iron Law states that in every case the second group will gain and keep control of the organization. It will write the rules, and control promotions within the organization.

That is what we see with the bankers. The people running the system care only about the system, not the alleged goals of the system. No one ever asked if near zero interest rates was good for the economy. They do not care. What mattered is what is good for the financial system and the people running it. When inflation promised to become dangerous to their position in the system they raised rates, but now that raising rates is threatening the system, they will stop raising rates.

We are about to have another banking crisis because no one in the system bothers questioning what happens in the system, outside of those things that threaten the position of those atop the system. Cheap money underwriting you-go-girl capitalism makes them feel good, so they do it. If the polices warp the overall economy and puts the middle-class at risk, they do not care. All that matters is the internal dynamics of the system and how it impacts the people in it.

Replicate this silo mentality across the empire and you can easily see why the ruling class appears to be out of touch with reality. The reason is their reality is not our reality, but the artificial reality of the system. Right now, banking regulators are telling each other they are heroes for working the weekend to stem a bank run, while the rest of us see another trillion getting printed up and handed to the greed-heads who have been looting the economy for generations.

Of course, none of these silos of power are independent. The political silo will get in on the act when Joe Biden mumbles something about it this morning. Expect to hear lots of statements beginning with “we did…” from various political operatives, claiming that they are the real heroes of this crisis. The media will adopt their usual bunker mentality, defending the people who control their scripts. Here is an early example of what we will see this week from the content creators.

What all this means for the rest of us is the grocery bill will rocket up this year as the bankers are bathed in free money to save the system. We will get new narratives from the Cloud People about how the food bill is a conspiracy theory or maybe it is the work of the Chinese, who are the new bogeyman. The people at the top will sleep well knowing they have once against defended the system from the barbarians of reality who threatened to crash through the gates.

If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!

Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. The Pepper Cave produces exotic peppers, pepper seeds and plants, hot sauce and seasonings. Their spice infused salts are a great add to the chili head spice armory.

Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that roasts its own coffee and ships all over the country. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.