Imagine an island populated with a tribe of people. The Blue People have been a stable population of about 9,000 people, distributed over three generations. One day, a new people begin to arrive. The island of the Red People exploded and refugees are floating up on the beaches of the Blue People island. The result is about one thousand Red People are now living on the island. It is an accommodation the natives are happy to provide and the newcomers are generally thankful for the sanctuary.
The demographics of both groups are reasonably stable, with the slight difference in fertility rates. The Blue People have a TFR of 2.0 and the Red People are at 2.5. To keep this simple, we’ll assume war, famine, disease and so forth are not issues. Think of this as an economics model, where reality is excluded, in order to make a point. Even though the Red People are breeding at a slightly higher rate, the differences are so slight that hardly anyone notices. Even so, in ten generations, the number Red Children will equal the number of Blue Children.
Now, let’s imagine that the Red People have fertility rates closer to what we see in the Muslim world. That means they will rival the Blue population in just five generations. If the Blue People see their fertility rates drop to something closer to modern European rates, the populations on our island are equal in three generations. It’s why the question of Europe’s future is first and foremost, a math question. Which is why, as Steve Sailer pointed out, no one likes talking about demographics in Europe these days.
While demographics are destiny, things change quickly. Arab fertility rates have been plummeting for more than a decade. Iran has a TFR below replacement. The same is true of the Turks, who are also suffering a brain drain. Then there is the political dimension that can seemingly turn on a dime. This is why the political season in Europe is a fixation of the global press. Normally, these elections are just ceremonial, as the political parties agree on most everything, except who gets to steal first from the treasury.
Brexit changed that and the rise of the Trump Party in America now makes even the smallest election on the Continent into a big deal. It’s why the government media made the recent Dutch election into a referendum on their hopes and fears about what’s happening in the West, with regards to the rise of patriotic parties in opposition to far-left globalist parties currently in power. Geert Wilders, the very odd looking Dutch politician was pitched as the challenger to the very acceptable Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
The setup was that the Dutch had a choice between a lunatic hate-thinker and the normal, sensible establishment man. There was even an effort to throw Wilders in jail for blasphemy. The reason the media chose to pitch this election as a referendum on patriotism is that there was no chance for Wilders to “win” the election. The Dutch make it so that no party ever gets a majority of seats in their parliament. Instead, the “winning” party forms a coalition with some of the “losing” parties to get a majority government.
Wilders and his party are well outside the political center so there was zero chance of his party being included in a ruling coalition. In other words, the result was known in advance so it was a safe bet for the globalists to carry on as if it were a referendum on their blessed rule. The post election stories declaring populism dead were written in advance of the vote. Wilders did well and his party increased their number of seats, but fell short of exceptions. Even so, the globalists cheered, hoping this was an omen.
Again, no one really cares about the Dutch. They are the least representative of Europe and that has always been true. But, the global ruling class is looking down the road to the French elections and later the Italian elections. There is a decent chance that Le Pen wins the first round of the French election, which would be very embarrassing to the European elite. They could live with that, as the main parties can be sure to join forces in order to defeat Le Pen in the second round.
There is some small chance that the mainstream parties could falter or fall into squabbling and not be able to present a united front. The French ruling class is showing signs of decay. You see that with the candidates they have offered up in this election. It is a rogue’s gallery of careerist hacks with the personality of government clerks. Scandal is also a problem with some of them. Then there is the fact Le Pen is getting close to 30% of the vote. Events keep conspiring to reward her positions, with regards to immigration.
The fact is, Europeans are starting to notice the numbers. It may not be so easy, as the Red People and Blue People on our imaginary island, but Europeans can spot a Moroccan when they see one. They notice that the guys rioting are Turks and the guys stabbing people on trains are always yelling “Allahu Akbar” while doing it. They also notice that the people in charge have no answer. As Chris Caldwell points out in this Mark Steyn interview, they are left with trying to convince people that this is the new normal.
Even so, it is hard to get away from the math of it. Europe is old and barren, while the swarthy invaders are young and fruitful. Demographic transformation can happen quite quickly, which is why the natives are now rightfully fearful of islamification. A majority population, increasingly worried about the foreign minority population, ruled by a governing class paralyzed and unable to respond, is a recipe for a very bad result. Europe will quickly reach a point where they have to abandon social democracy in order to survive.
The alternative is Europe ceases to be Europe.
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If you read Vox Day http://voxday.blogspot.com/search/label/immigration he believes ‘Europe’ is on the verge of a Anders Brevik-style revolt over refusegees. Understandable, due to him living in Italy. Like you, I’m not so sanguine, the mean age of ‘Europe’ skews old and the mean age of the rapeugees are mostly military age (and in many cases, no one knows for sure their exact age so they get put in schools even if they may actually be adults) with a 2×4 sized chip on their shoulder.
If I was betting, I’d put my money on conquered within 30 years.
Part of implementing the globalist agenda via the theory of Magic Dirt is to demoralize the dirt people under the ruse resistance is futile against another musloid invasion. I think your going to find no matter the circumstance currently, that is a suckers bet.
I would bet one way on Europe and the other on the U.S. When they ring the bell in Europe, ain’t nobody gonna show up.
Current immigration and differential birth rates within Europe are one problem. The big future crisis will come from the fast growing population of Africa and the fact that economic and political conditions there will continue to be very bad,
Muslims schmuslims. Wait until the wretched refuse of sub-Saharan Africa starts washing up on Europe’s Mediterranean shore.
There is a lot of pent up anger and frustration amongst the dirt people on both sides of the “pond”. One of the key factors is that for the “average” dirt person the socioeconomic consequence of standing up to this is too high. They end up unemployed , lose their family, imprisoned, etc. Once the eocnomic bubbles burst on both sides all bets are off. Once the socioeconomic consequence of acting out is less then the threat as seen by the dirt people, action will take place.
Your model is a simplistic one based on the premise that the demographic shift will remain constant and that public and official opinions will remain static. As we know from history, it’s never just one single variable, but multiple variables where anything can happen. No one knew if the USA would be able to remain a nation after the 1776 Revolution any more than anyone expected the British empire to completely collapse after nearly 300-years of successful empire building. The same goes with China who went from Communist peasant nation to becoming an economic super-power in our lifetime, and in… Read more »
The churches and synagogues in the States ARE the vehicles the state uses for refugee resettlement. The Lutheran Church imported the Somalis into Minnesota, for instance. Most of the older Protestant denominations are basically outposts of the Democratic party at this point.
The churches get paid very well for this resettlement stuff. Much more lucrative than passing the plate up the pews.
Constitutions are pieces of paper containing the aspirations of dead men.
Freedom of religion is a myth. The civic religion of the West is the dominant religion and the legacy faiths are tolerated, as long as they remain quiet and docile.
Zman, your comment about the Constitution(s), U.S. I presume, is so cynical. Maybe you are reading WRSA a bit too much.
I have not read anything that compares to the beauty and wisdom put down by our Founders in the Declaration of Independence, Constitution and Bill of Rights. Maybe you can point me to better. I’m open. But I have yet to see for myself.
According to the SCOTUS, the Founders thought homosexual marriage was an inalienable right. Either the constitution is dead or the past is imaginary.
You are right about the current situation but of course nothing is free of politics, nor has it ever been. The Supreme’s are split 50/50 and do not judge based on the Constitution, except for only a couple of jurists who are dedicated to such. The others are just tools like Congress-critters are. But the ‘words’ of the Constitution are ideas to be upheld by good people, and we obviously have very flawed people in positions even if they come from some of the most prestigious institutions of this country. But as I always say, intelligence is not the sole… Read more »
Which SCOTUS are you referring to?
@ thezman – Not at all! The Constitution is a living document, which can and does change to support a viable Republic. I’ll take the writings from intelligent dead men over an idiot dictator any day of the week. Been there, done that.
You say freedom of religion is a myth? Then the same can be said for freedom of gun ownership or any other right. Governments may be able to oppress the freedom of practicing a religion, but they can’t take away our belief in it.
The constitution is whatever the counsel of high priests think at the moment. That old paper hanging in the national archive is no more significant today that Washington’s old wooden choppers.
this attitude is exactly why Germany is finished. If you won’t fight when you’re the majority you won’t fight when you’re the minority. It’s not those immigrants who come to Europe decades ago that are the problem Karl, it’s their children. As for reading a mainstream Euro newspaper, didn’t you guys come up with the term lugenpresse? Was it because the mainstream media is so reliably honest?
@ Ken – To your comment on children, fair point. There is a strong history in all civilizations of second or third generation immigrants (or even native) going 180° to their forefathers belief systems. The American “hippie” of the 1960’s is a perfect example that you can relate to there in the US. To our current problem, you have to put things in perspective. Unlike Americans who have had over 200-years of black racism which every white American understands. Germans, on the other hand, have not had problems with Muslim Turks, or other middle easterners, who came here decades ago.… Read more »
I just came across this and have cut and pasted this piece from the linked page. I agree with it’s premise that Islam is not primarily a religion. “Islam is another collectivist society in which the rights/needs of the individual are not important, but demands each citizen serve the collective in order to maintain it. The only practical difference between Islam and Communism is that Islam is a theocracy, in which all aspects of life and society are controlled by the ideology, dispensed upon the collective, by the collective, if a theocratic government is not available. This is why Islam… Read more »
@ LetsPlay – From what I understand of cults, Islam is exactly that. I fully agree.
Karl, It seems that the choice is unsupervised systemic support ( social programs and housing) or supervised systemic support (incarceration) Either way the financial burden is on the tax paying population…. Either way you are paying to be less safe. How about eliminating the financial burden altogether? I understand and am familiar with some transplanted arabs/muslims with ‘tenure’ in Europe….. people that wanted out of the oppressive ignorant mindset that exists throughout the Mena…. but we here in the redneckt states of America never hear of them having warned other Europeans of the impending jihad … Or working in the… Read more »
@ Clayton – What you’re not seeing is the global immigration issue which is less publicized over here. Russia took in over 12,000,000 over the past 5-years but not much is mentioned about it. American has the benefit of only having to deal with Southern immigration, which are for the most part, Christian. And don’t fool yourself into thinking the Muslims are the only ones who rule by force of theology. The US has a long history of significant religious influence, not always beneficial to all citizens. Free black slaves did not benefit from the Bill of Rights or Christian… Read more »
Karl, I think you first logical mistake is to believe that Islam is a “religion.” The word Islam mean “submission.” And as we have seen of late (heck, throughout history for that matter), it is not a ‘religion of peace.’ And it is not just Europeans but the global environment that has been fed a bunch of hooey about tolerance for religious freedom when this political-social construct poses as a religion to worm it’s way into current successful societies that are “open” for the taking. This is a war whether or not people want to believe it. The number say… Read more »
Read “The Alien Ork” linked below. Exactly the situation under discussion here.
Generally speaking, religions are nothing more than a man-made system of unprovable beliefs created to control other men. Mormonism. Scientology. Hinduism. Paganism. Take your pick. And let’s not forget, the basic tenants of Christianity are summed up in the Lords prayer with “thy will be done” which is another way of saying Christians must give full submission to our God just as Muslims must give full submission to Allah. And yes, I do understand the difference between these two religions. I’m simply making a point that all religions require submission. Submission is the whole point of every religion just as… Read more »
well i would study up on the koran if i were you…something tells me it is going to be a big part of your life, soon.
The problem with pointing out the mathematics of the population change is that we are not in isolated bubbles. We are in areas where groups of people may move freely with very few restrictions. I have always wondered if mathematicians could come up with an equation to point out the inevitability of the end of one culture due to displacement of the host population. Unfortunately, there are too many variables involved so that those that intend for the West to be destroyed can use such nomenclature as simplistic, paranoid, racist, diversity, inclusion, slippery slope arguments, tin foil hat wearers, etc.… Read more »
Ecologists have already come up with this equation. It’s called Gause’s Law of competitive exclusion.
Gause’s Law postulates that one population will dominate another in an ecological niche. It doesn’t have an equation that can predict the rate at which it will occur. Plus, it primarily focuses on non-human species. Humans can even have more than 2 populations competing. They also can travel around the world in less than a day. They also can be programmed by abstract concepts that have no validity in and of themselves. Non-human species do not usually do things that are self-destructive for things like altruism or virtue signaling. Like I said, there are too many variables.
two species competing for the same resource cannot coexist at constant population values. When one species has even the slightest advantage over another, the one with the advantage will dominate in the long term The questions is what happens when direct violent conflict is engaged in between the 2 populations, which one will dominate. SO far the European governments are acting against the interests of its native population (Kalergi Plan???) so rate of reproduction is the current competitive factor. Once economic decline removes socioeconomic restraint the question changes. For the most part the invading population is visually distinct from the… Read more »
This post put me in mind of “The Alienork Way” by Matt Bracken http://gatesofvienna.net/2016/01/the-alienork-way/
if europe somehow finds the will to expel the muslims, and their population levels drift down a bit, then the cost of family formation will drop — and presto! more families. that is the ame reason you see so little family formation in large U.S. cities — except within the welfare class.
if europe got rid of social welfare — i.e. socialism — the muslims would leave. works on the same principle as dissuading ants from the kitchen by not leaving food out for them.
?w=696 The consequences of the cultural marxists agenda to destroy the legacy of the West in Europe and America has created a defensive identity movement of men of the west. It’s rumblings are beginning to coalesce into a zeitgeist not unlike Alt-Right in its grass roots beginnings. The globalists in Brussels are idiots running through Hell with an open container of gasoline. The EU is Carl Marx’s ghost come back to haunt the dummies for buying into a deal just too good to be true. Kind of like Hope & Change? Is the majority outside that zeitgeist like what Machiavelli… Read more »
I’m not sure that’s possible or even correct. Living on the black market in Rotterdam beats living anywhere in the Arab world so even if they figured out how to get the Muslims off the dole, the Muslims will not leave.
Of course, in order to overthrown the welfare system, you have to have a revolution, shoot all the politicians and most of the managerial elite.
Hence one of the 2 populations will have to exterminate the other. going back is not possible at this point. The political elite of Europe has now built in a deathmatch of historical proportions. The pope jumping in on the side of the “rapefugees” also put the odds in favor of it simultaneously becoming a Holy-race war for both sides.
I’m in France watching the fun, so I’ll give the rundown, as the slate of candidates was finalized this last weekend. http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/03/19/lection-presidentielle-2017-retrouvez-tous-les-sondages-grace_a_21902832/ Francis Fillon (beat out Sarkozy and Alain Juppé) to lead Les Republicans, the French center-right [pro-business]. He’s dogged by the scandal of paying his wife a salary without her actually doing any work (public funds over some 8 years of about 500-800k). He was getting around 20% but slowly falling. Bernard Hamon is the PS candidate (center left). If Macron hadn’t split the vote, it’s hard to say what his support would be, as the current PS President… Read more »
My sense is Europe will go through a few more spins of the wheel like this. The “extreme far right extremists” will hover just on the edge of respectability, in terms of vote getting. Enough to put a scare into the main parties, but not enough to be a real threat or win an election. Meanwhile, the not so quiet demographic replacement will stagger on until it reaches an inflection point. Either the numbers get so big that the old stock are afraid to do anything about it or their numbers get so big that the old stock is afraid… Read more »
“The issue to consider is why has the ruling class set off on this course? Inviting these troubles into Europe is unnecessary. How likely is it that people who invented this crisis will be quick to address it?” The elites of these nations seem to have reached the conclusion that they don’t care who peoples the nation that they run as long as they are still the one’s who are running it. And from a short term elite perspective it makes sense – the barbarians are barbarians and thus beneath notice or concern. The same for the poor who will… Read more »
The Dutch electoral system is very highly proportional. Getting 20%+ counts as a win. PVV were never going to lead the government. The big winners were the Green/Left. Doubtful that Le Pen can win the 2nd round. But not impossible. And I think that is good. The FN does seem to have puller some traditional Catholic reactionaries – sort of people who still believe that Dreyfus was a Prussian spy – behind anyone who said “de-Gaulle. But despite Marine’s attempts to modernise I don’t think enough time has passed for them to have lost their knuckle-dragging boot-image which puts off… Read more »
Ugh. S’cuse many typos. On a phone on a train.
Good data is tough. Here in the US it is quoted that there are fewer incarcerated illegal immigrants, by % of population, than citizens. But how much of that is due to people looking the other way at illegal criminality, rather than prosecuting, or deportation of illegal criminals instead of incarceration? Take out the black citizen incarceration, and what does the ratio look like? Take out incarceration for non-violent drug busts, on all sides, and what does the data look like? We have absolutely no idea what the number of resident illegals in our country might be. 6 million? 12… Read more »
Define Lost? When you get down to it, not much different for us dirt people in America and Draining The Swamp. Us dirt people pulled the chain on the crapper last 9-8-16 on turd so big it is stuck in the bowl refusing to go down, it is spinning around leaving nasty marks. It either happens or the deep state doubles down like JFK-ing Trump. Then the options look like this: TINVOWOOT, TNWAVOWOOT, WAGHTSOWOOT, (the is no voting our way out of this) (there never was any voting our way out of this) (we are gonna have to shoot our… Read more »
For several years, I’ve assumed that the Left and Islam have some kind of Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. It isn’t formal obviously as the Islamic side is not that well organized. But it is a mutual gains agreement for both. The Globalist Left thinks they can use the Muslims to displace their pesky domestic peasants who aren’t entirely bought into international socialism. The Muslims obviously get a major toehold into land their ancestors tried and failed to conquer for a millennium, Once the yokels are completely outnumbered and rendered harmless, they’ll obviously turn on each other. That promises to be interesting.
What happens when the extremist sort of new arrivals show up in a neighborhood? A lot of people that have lived there a long time move out. Think of Europe as a neighborhood, on a grand scale. But the people are not moving out, they are laying low and fading away.
Is Europe lost? If we are talking about the European project, the utopian United Europe then its on its deathbed. To be honest, without something to counterweight it like the Soviet Union in particular or the Cold War in general, it wasn’t likely to have much chance to exist at all except maybe in the minds of their bored, decadent elites. Europe seems to be going back to what it was before the age of discovery put the world out in front of it as a goal to pursue. I don’t disagree that demographics are important but there is the… Read more »
Instapundit linked to a thought that Trump played the Groucho Marx role and Merkel played Margaret Dumont. As good of an explanation as any, IMO.
Z Man, great as always. “The fact is, Europeans are starting to notice the numbers. It may not be so easy, as the Red People and Blue People on our imaginary island, but Europeans can spot a Moroccan when they see one.”
For a more in depth, and therefore not so easy, account of how this horrid tale of Europe (and possibly elsewhere) is unfolding, read Matthew Brackens’ “The Alienorc Way”. Easy to find on the net, a good read and more analogous to the self inflicted islamification Europe (and elsewhere) suffers from.
The words you must know;
dawah, dhimmi, hijra, jizya, kafir, shaheed, shariah, takfir, taqiyya, ummah, sira, hadith
Here’s a little bedtime story for you and your children. Sleep well;
http://gatesofvienna.net/2016/01/the-alienork-way/
You could have embedded this cartoon instead of the first paragraph:
YouTube How Whites Took Over America
Featuring the one and only Bob Whitaker, any opinions on him Z?
And one more time about Europe. Been there, seen it. Don’t care about their future.
The problem is not that they are failing. The problem is that the people of Europe are mostly acquiescent to their failure.
The globalist brainwashing has worked, you no longer care about your history and your people. Unless…you’re asian or black or something.