Let’s Check In On The News

Posted on June 9, 2023 by thezman

146

The world can go a long time without anything important happening, but then all of a sudden, we get a lot of history in a short period of time. Of course, it just feels this way to us humans with our short lifespans. In those slow periods, lots of things are happening, but they go unnoticed. They build up over time and then all of a sudden, everyone notices them all at once, along with other things.

We may be in one of those processes. The regime is about to arrest another political opponent for the crime of being a political opponent. Trump is not the first to be jailed by the current regime. Dungeons around Washington continue to hold political prisoners waiting for their rigged trial for January 6. Jailing Trump is merely another red line that this regime has been willing to cross.

Most everyone reading this remembers when Americans mocked countries that engaged in these sorts of shenanigans. America was not perfect and there were many cases of people getting abused for their politics, but nothing like this. Victims of the system could expect the public to be outraged. They could also expect people in the system to give them a fair hearing and maybe redress their grievances.

All of a sudden none of that is true. America is one of those countries we used to mock for their lawless disregard for orderly governance. This is just one of the “all of a sudden” events we are about to experience. The war in Ukraine is about to pack a whole lot of history into a short period of time. Months of official lies are about to bob to the surface in all sorts of unpleasant ways.

Of course, our world has been changing in other ways that have largely gone unnoticed but will be noticed all of a sudden. Pat Robertson going to the great fundraiser in the sky is a reminder that we are on the cusp of a great demographic turnover. All those old guys who made their bones in the great interregnum, maybe made it possible, are about to exit the stage. The past is receding quickly.

Years ago, I wrote something about this age being like a point where multiple rivers meet in a great confluence. Instead of rivers, it is long and short social cycles that are ending at the same time. The long cycle is Western liberalism. Another longish cycle is the American empire. A short cycle is the baby boom generation. There are others, all reaching their denouement in this age. It will be a wild ride.

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This Week’s Show

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Peaceful Separation
RIP Pat Robertson
The Campaign
Trump Goes To Jail
World War III

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Alien Liars

Posted on June 8, 2023 by thezman

309

One of the weirder aspects of the Biden administration is their zeal for pushing the idea that space aliens are regularly visiting earth. This week a regime media outlet pushed this story about a whistleblower’s claims regarding crashed alien vehicles. This builds on prior stories put into the media by the Pentagon regarding unidentified flying objects spotted by miliary pilots. Tucker Carlson mentioned this in his debut video on Twitter this week, as part of his show on government lying.

Even by the standards of this age, the space alien stuff is weird. The whole space alien thing ran its course decades ago. People with a need for escapist fantasies can just claim to be a third gender now. They get special privileges and most important, the validation they seek. Why bother with claims about getting probed by little green men when you can throw on a sundress and prance around Target? The current year has plenty of options for the mentally disturbed.

Putting aside the motivations behind this stuff, the question is whether there can be any truth to the claims. Is it possible for intelligent life from another planet to visit earth and is it possible for us to know about it? People naturally assume the answer to both questions is yes, but that is wishful thinking. Once you consider the physics involved, the odds that we are getting alien visitors drop significantly. The odds of us knowing about these visitors fall to zero.

The first thing to consider is where these aliens are located. If what we know about life is correct, then the conditions for life must exist on many planets. This is just a matter of calculating the probability of a planet having the stuff that we see on earth. If there must be many earthlike planets in the universe, there must be at least one that has produced life as we understand it. If a planet can support life, it means it will have evolved life and, in some cases, intelligent life.

We have been scanning the heavens for such planets. The most Earth-like planet that we have found so far is called Kepler 452b. It got this name because it was spotted by the Kepler Space Telescope. Kepler 452 is a sun-like star that is roughly 1,400 light-years from Earth. The planet we call 452b is in orbit around this sun in what is called the habitable zone of the star. This means the planet is close enough, but not too close, to contain liquid water, which is a prerequisite for life.

Right there we see the first problem for space aliens. If they have mastered the ability to visit our planet, it means they are travelling 1,400 light years. If we assume they can travel at near the speed of light, that takes 1,500 years to make the trip, assuming no bathroom breaks along the way. You can already see the problem. Either these extraterrestrial visitors have figured out how to exceed the speed of light or they have lifespans that dwarf the human lifespan.

Let us consider the last option first. Bowhead whales live much longer than humans, so they are an object of study for this reason. This species has a genetic mutation that helps repair damaged DNA. They also possess a gene that seems to aid in the repair and regeneration of damaged cells. Taken together, these make the animal highly resistant to diseases like cancer and extend its life. It may be possible to apply these mutations to humans, thus extending human lifespans.

The longest-living vertebrates on earth are Greenland sharks. The oldest known specimen is estimated to be 390 years old. Currently, people studying these animals think their base lifespan is around three hundred years, but it is possible that they can live as long as six hundred years. As with the Bowhead whales, there is probably a set of genes that allow this animal to avoid disease and repair its DNA. That could mean humans will one day use the same technology to extend human life.

The point is, we are probably inching up to the point where we can extend human lifespans well beyond what nature provides. More important, we will soon be able to slow the aging process. What would be the point of living to 150-years-old if you are decrepit and fragile like Joe Biden? Even so, that is a long way from the lifespan we will need to visit Kepler 452b. Assuming our space travelers will want to come home, it means living thousands of earth years.

If the people of Kepler 452b are visiting earth, it means they have a conception of time and space that is far beyond our comprehension. Think about the man who dedicates his life to a project. He sets out knowing it will take a long time, but he also assumes it will be finished or at least show progress before he dies. Realistically that is a project with a fifty-year arc. Now imagine a man who sets out on the same project, but his target date is five thousand years into the future.

This brings us to that other issue, the speed of light. Currently, we have no idea how to keep humans in space for more than a relatively short time. Zero gravity does weird things to the human body over time. Bones stop producing new bone tissue, as bones are no longer needed to fight gravity. For some reason, the immune system begins to slow and perhaps even stop functioning altogether. Then you have the radiation of space that damages human DNA.

This means our space alien friends have either figured out a way to conquer these problems so they can remain in space for thousands of years or they never had to contend with these problems. That means they are a life form that is beyond our comprehension, or they have conquered the limits of space-time. In the former case, it would mean they exist so far outside our understanding that we may not be able to see them, because our brains lack the ability to conceive them.

More likely and much spookier is that they have conquered space-time. This means that our conception of space-time is human specific. What we think of as reality is an interface we have evolved in order to navigate the much more complex reality that lies beyond our human ability to comprehend. These space aliens made the leap either to a novel interface that lets them travel vast distances in a short period of time or they exist outside our reality altogether.

As you can see from examining the space and time issues, the odds of these tales about space aliens being true are extremely low. Either the space aliens have lifespans so long that it places them outside of our ability to conceive of them or they exist outside of our conception of space-time. Even if we wish to pretend this is not true, it means they have advanced technologically beyond what we can imagine. They would have little trouble concealing themselves from us.

That brings us back to the real question with regards to space aliens. Why is our government suddenly trying to revive interest in the topic? Given the massive corruption and perfidy on display, we have to assume their motives are not good. These people lie about everything, so maybe they just like lying. Rolling out these fake space alien stories is how they entertain one another. Who knows? Maybe they are plotting to unleash a fake space invaders story on us.

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Managerial Madness

Posted on June 7, 2023 by thezman

285

One of the lingering questions about the Covid panic is why did the West suddenly go insane over a regularly occurring phenomena? Pandemics hit the West every generation or so with varying lethality. Most are like Covid in that they are bad for the old and the sick, but mostly a bad flu for everyone else. Once it was clear that Covid was not the Spanish flu, much less the Black Death, the response should have been like those of the past, but instead we got a panic.

In the United States, the panic started when Trump announced the cancellation of travel to and from Europe. That was March of 2020. Europe quickly returned the favor and then the race was on to see who could be the most egregious with regards to abusing their subjects in the name of health and safety. In the United States that meant laughably ridiculous policies like mask mandates, social distancing and the forced closure of restaurants and barbershops.

Panics are what they are because they are irrational, so much of what happened at the beginning is just mass insanity egged on by the media. The nonsense stories about bodies stacked up in morgues kept getting recycled because there was an eager audience of panic-stricken people. Social media was full of people needing to feel like part of the story by spinning personal tales to support the narrative. Many people derived psychic pleasure from feeling like the end was nigh.

After the chubby nurses had finished their TikTok videos, someone had to notice that the hospitals were not overwhelmed. Forgotten now, but people got curious, defied the lockdowns, and went to their local hospitals to see what was happening. Contrary to the reports, the hospitals were not panicked triage centers. They were ghost towns because everything had been cancelled except emergency care. At some point, the staff had to know what was really happening, but they remained silent.

That is the biggest concern about the panic. We were getting good data on the reality of the virus by the autumn of 2020, and it was clear the virus was something like the Asian flu or Hong Kong flu at the worst. The doctors and nurses had to know this by late summer and early fall, but the public health officials insisted otherwise. In fact, we now know they colluded with the tech companies and the media to silence anyone pointing out the facts about Covid. Why did they do this?

The most common response to this question is to shout, “money or power” and then move onto another topic. No doubt some people made money from the panic, and it did give the managers a sense of power. The trouble is we had plenty of state governments go the other way on the issue of lockdowns. Ron DeSantis is going to make a big deal of the fact he did not succumb to the panic. He was not alone, but he had all the same incentives as other states but did not follow the herd.

Maybe the way to think of the money and power answer here is to put it in the context of the managerial society in which we live. The millions of administrators and their managerial bosses finally had their war. The people who populate the array of public and private bureaucracies dedicated to managing some aspect of your life were finally being called upon to defend the world from destruction. The army of public health experts were going to have their turn on the big stage.

The managerial madness that set in and stayed with us long past when it made any sense was not the crude form of money and power that is the most popular answer to every question regarding the behavior of our rulers. People were not taking bribes or gaining new authority in the system. Instead, the vast managerial class and their administrative underlings finally had the sense of control they had always imagined they should have over your life.

It is important to understand that the people who populate the big chairs in the big offices of this age have been bred for this life. They are like dogs selectively breed for certain sorts of work. Anyone who has owned a dachshund, for example, will tell you they have an innate need to dig. If you let them, they will turn the backyard into the surface of the moon trying to find whatever it is they think is there. The wiener dog lives to root around and find what lies beneath.

Like a working dog, the people in the managerial class are bred for their role, so they have that same desire. Instead of digging around the backyard, they desire to manage the life of people that fall under their area of management. In a crisis, that desire explodes in a mania of micromanagement. In other times, it expresses itself as an endless need to expand their roles and thus expand their control. The manager is bred to manage, and she will manage something.

This managerial madness also explains the manufactured crisis. The same people who went berserk over Covid made the predictable mistakes with Ukraine war. If who you are is defined by how you handle the unexpected, after all, you are the one your people come to handle the exceptions, then you will be tuned to seek out the situations that need your particular set of skills. A form of Munchausen syndrome by proxy has infected the managerial class resulting in endless crises.

The reason the system often feels like it is shaking itself apart is that we are plagued with people looking for a crisis to manage. That has resulted in people finding a crisis where none exists. The end point of a society run by managers is a society run by females standing on chairs shrieking at imaginary mice. This also explains why females now outnumber males in the managerial class. You see this most clearly in health care, where the demand for crisis managers is the highest.

It must be said that a fair bit of what went on during Covid was driven by corruption, stupidity, and avarice. The vaccine boondoggle was just a scaled-up version of the Sackler family opioid scam. It was not the genocide the Sackler’s committed against poor people, but there is still time. The negative effects of the Covid vaccines will not fully be known for a long time. A competent system would have stopped both, but stupidity and corruption make avarice the coin of the realm.

Even accounting for the simple answers, we are left with the question as to why the managerial class went mad with Covid. The simple answer here is that perpetual panic is the natural end to managerialism. Once your society is consumed by a ruling class that imagines itself as the indispensable answer to every problem, they eventually are consumed with the need for problems to solve. We are being destroyed by an out of control need to manage the next crisis.

Pandora’s Ballot Box

Posted on June 6, 2023 by thezman

144

According to Merriam-Webster, hope is a desire accompanied by expectation of or belief in fulfillment. You want something to happen. You have little or no reason to think it will happen, yet you sense that it is going to happen. Hope and faith are traveling partners, in that hope is often the result of trusting a system or person. The system has worked in the past, so despite evidence that it is not going to work this time, you hope that it carries through again.

Hope and faith are the cornerstones of elections. In the best of times, people are left to hope that the guy who wins will do a decent job. Even when it is obvious that the winner will be a dud, maybe even crazy, people have faith in the system to carry us through the ineptitude of the office holders. Popular government requires people to believe that all of us are smarter than most of us. Every couple of years people hope this is true as they cast their ballots for people they barely know.

What we have seen over the last thirty years is that some people, the people we call the Left, have increasingly lost faith in the system. Their reason for voting is not the hope that it will continue on, but that this time it finally fails. Barak Obama was the turning point with his constant talk about hope and change. The whole point of his presidency was to destroy the old system and replace it with a new one. He was the change they had been waiting for.

The looming presidential election is looking like a similar inflection point for the people we call the Right. In 2016, most of them voted for Trump, hoping he would be a message to the system. People voted for Trump as a rebuke, an often crudely humorous rebuke, of official Washington. These people still had faith in the system, so they hoped that Trump could deliver the message. The people were unhappy, and Washington needed to address their concerns.

This time, much of the support for Trump is like the hope and change business that Obama ran on in 2008. People saw what happened in the Trump years and they have been following the aftermath. They no longer have faith in the system. The system produced this corrupt ruling class. The thinking is that another Trump term will cause so much anger in official Washington that they will go berserk. Everyone else will then see that the system is hopelessly broken.

There is still some faith in the system. Lots of the MAGA hat wearing folks think this time will be different, but a good chunk of his support is cynical. This is why his support is so solid, despite the presence of Ron DeSantis. People know that in a normal country with a functioning political system, DeSantis would be the far better choice, but America is no longer a normal country. Prudent administration is not the answer to a demonic ruling class hellbent on pulling the roof down on us.

On the other hand, Ron DeSantis is the hope and faith option. His support is entirely from people who still have faith in the system. Here is the venerable Paul Gottfried coming out in support of DeSantis over Trump. Josh Hammer, a member of the common good conservative club, is also supporting DeSantis. Pedro Gonzalez sounds like Bill Kristol in coming out in favor of DeSantis. Three people from three different perspectives making the same argument.

These folks and the others supporting DeSantis think the system is mostly fine, but it needs the right guy to get the right result. They hope DeSantis is that guy, because after all, he “got things done” in Florida. For his supporters, Florida is a model for how things ought to run. DeSantis is therefore the model for how an executive pulls the right levers in the system in order to get the desired result. The fact that Florida is nothing like Washington plays no role in their thinking.

DeSantis is the last gasp of conservatism. Until the catastrophe of the Bush years, the subtext to conservatism was that it needed to be presented to the Left in just the right way so as not to upset them. Conservatism had to sneak up on lefty with a pleasant-sounding program presented by someone they liked or at least they could not plausibly claim was Hitler. For the DeSantis supporters, their guy is Trumpism without the crude orange man that makes the regime so angry.

Of course, their support rests on the assumption that the right man can get in there and pull the right levers to get the right result. It also assumes that the people in opposition will go along with this. The shadow of ignorance about the nature of the people in charge hangs over the DeSantis supporters. They are sure that the other side wants what they want and that they do not believe what they say. They just need a good talking to and they will stop the nonsense.

The hard reality is that the people who run the empire want what they want, and they will not be talked out of it by an election. The reason they recoiled like a startled snake when Trump came to town is because they feared him. He represented a threat to their preferred order, so they sunk their venomous fangs into his presidency. They will do the same thing to the next guy if he proves to be a threat. There is no way to clear out this nest of vipers at the ballot box.

In the 2016 election, Michael Anton famously penned the Flight 93 election essay that allowed many on the Right to throw in with Trump. The essay was an argument in favor of Trump as one last desperate attempt to save the system. The fact that the Trump presidency ended like the famous flight did not register with many people. Some of them are now throwing in with DeSantis for the same reason. It is one last desperate attempt to save the system, in which they still have faith.

According to Hesiod, when Prometheus stole fire from the gods, Zeus took vengeance by giving the lovely Pandora to Epimetheus, the brother of Prometheus. She was left with a jar and told not to open it. Being a woman, this meant she could do nothing else but open it and out came all the evils that plague the world. She quickly put the lid back on, but the only thing remaining was what is often translated as hope, but which could also mean deceptive expectation.

In 2016 the Dirt People stole fire from the gods in that they defied their masters and supported Trump in the primary then the general election. Instead of sending a jar containing plagues, they sent another ballot box. In 2020 that box was opened and out came the secret police to carry Joe Biden to the White House. Despite it all, some still cling that that ballot box, hope trapped inside, thinking that maybe this time when they open the box, their hopes will be realized.

The Death Of The West

Posted on June 5, 2023 by thezman

206

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Since the French Revolution, the West has been cursed by a political framing that operates along an axis. At one end we have the Left, the people demanding radical change to liberate humanity in some way. At the other end is the Right, the people not just opposed to change, but the defenders of the natural order. Both ends see the other as the bad guy in the relationship. For over two centuries, all political movements have been forced to pick a spot on the axis.

This often leads to some ridiculous alliances. Libertarians are supposed to be the polar opposite of communists. Hitler is the polar opposite of Stalin, which then puts Hitler in the libertarian camp. This causes those sympathetic to libertarianism to claim that Hitler was actually a leftist. After all, he was a socialist! While this is idiotic, it does underscore the problem with the Right-Left political axis. It fails as a way to describe politics over a long period of time.

It also precludes right-wing radicalism. By making change a left-wing phenomenon, it means the right-wing must always be for stasis. This is popular with the Left, as it lets them pretend to be the good guys, but it also turns the other side into mindless reactionaries with no reason to oppose change. It is also wrong in that the Right, in all of its forms, does not oppose change. What the Right opposes is experimentation that treats institutions as arbitrary objects.

There is a bigger problem with the Left-Right political axis. It eliminates the possibility for right-wing radicalism. If the only people who can contemplate a radical reordering are those who embrace change, then the logic of the political scale says that it is impossible for right-wing people to imagine radical change. Yet we know that people on the Right, however defined at the time, often want radical change. It may simply be a rollback of prior change, but it is still change.

For example, most people defined as right-wing in the current year would like to see the sexual revolution rolled back at least forty years. A growing cohort thinks it is necessary to roll things back to the 1950’s. A small, but growing portion of the right wonder if we should roll it all back to the very beginning. If a right-wing Joe Biden comes to power and rolls back the sexual revolution, even if it is just to the 1980’s, most people would see that as a radical change in the culture.

In fairness, you could call these people reactionaries. Granted, their reactions are incredibly slow, taking at least a generation to form, but strictly speaking they want to return to some point in the past, not break with it. Left-wing radicals imagine themselves making a clean break with the past and creating something new. The fact that it is not new in the least is another matter. One side wants to break from the past while the other side wants to return to what it imagines is the past.

That seems to solve the problem, but what about the people who think we must make a break with liberalism in order to save Western people? These are not people seeking a return to some point in the past. Some joke about the return of monarchy and feudalism, but they are not serious about it. Instead, they see the future as a clean break with liberal political traditions. The people now calling themselves post-liberal think we must produce something new to replace liberalism.

Adrian Vermeule, the Harvard scholar, and champion of common good conservatism is not entirely clear about the details of his post-liberal order, but he is quite clear in his rejection of liberalism. Patrick Deneen, who is a Notre Dame political science professor, has a new book in which he argues for overthrowing the liberal order and replacing it with a dictatorship of working-class, by which he means the people who actually work and sustain the culture.

Read what these post-liberals have to say about what we would consider to be the status quo and they certainly sound like radicals. Unlike the standard model of radicalism, they are not challenging the human condition. There is no post-liberal man in their conception of the future, other than to argue that mankind will be free of the utopian claims that lie within the liberal order. Mankind will be liberated from the relentless coercion of its liberators.

Dissidents, of course, seek something similar. The main difference is that the Dissident Right is willing to address the demographic issue. To be on the Dissident Right is to wrestle with the question of what kind of society is possible with the demographics we will have in the not-too-distant future? More important, are the possible options tolerable and if not, what must come next? Like the post-liberals, the Dissident Right is ready to leave the old liberal order in the past.

For all the usual reasons, the dissidents and post-liberals get called fascist by the people who claim to be on the Left. It is proof that the universe has a sense of humor that the most dogmatic defenders of the status quo and the holders of power are the people who claim to be on the side of revolutionary change. In the modern age, the antifascists are sponsored by major corporations, who are in a close partnership with government and the centers of cultural production.

Putting that aside, if we broaden the definition of the term “liberalism” to include all Western thought since the late Middle Ages, then we are left with a universe that includes Marxism, libertarianism, liberal democracy, anarchism, fascism and all the combinations of these ideologies. To one degree or another, all of them imagine a world where mankind is freed from the human condition. What we now call liberalism is the final form of this long ideological struggle.

This gets to a truth about the modern world and its opponents. That political axis that has been with us since the French Revolution is increasingly incoherent because it assumes something that is not true. It assumes that ideology is a constant of the universe and therefore politics is a war between competing ideologies. In reality, ideology is a novelty. For most of human history, the moral questions were decided by religion, not by men with utopian schemes.

What the incoherence of that old political axis may be telling us is that we are reaching the end of the ideological age. What the post-liberals are doing, even if most do not realize it, is challenging the moral claims of liberalism. It is not an accident that the champions of post-liberalism are overtly religion. Both Deneen and Vermeule are traditional Catholics. Their post-liberal order assumes the moral questions have been answered by a revived traditional church.

The signs of the post-ideological age are most evident on the global stage. The last ideological state is at war with Russia because Russia rejects liberalism. The Russians are happy to borrow from the West but wish to remain Russian. The West is preparing to attack China for similar reasons. China’s capitalism with “Chinese characteristics” is unacceptable to the West. Soon, the rest of the world will join the enemies list for the crime of rejecting the liberal moral order.

For over two centuries, the West has been defined by that political axis that was born out of the French Revolution. What most people think of as the West is that long ideological struggle that has given us what we call liberal democracy. With the end of the Cold War, the struggle was over and liberal democracy won. In reality, the Cold War was the penultimate struggle of a dying age. What was born with that political axis will die with the final rejection of it.

It’s Trump Town

Posted on June 2, 2023 by thezman

Like many on this side of the great divide, I am not looking forward to the Republican primary, especially the war between Trump and DeSantis. There is a chance that it fizzles before it gets going, as DeSantis is way back in the polls. Ron DeSantis is more of a concept at this point. He is an alternative to Trump, but not the rejection of Trump, so people are free to imagine him as they please.

His first big hurdle will be his lack of personality. Those people who like him because he is Trumpism without Trump will be surprised to learn that the concept made flesh looks and sounds a lot like Michael Dukakis. It is entirely possible that once those voters get a look at him on the stump, they lose interest. This is what happened to Scott Walker in the 2016 primary. His first impression was his last impression.

Given the longshot odds for any Republican in the current year, I wonder if the action does not end up on the other side of the race. Biden has been stuck at 40% in the approval polls for a long time. Most Democrat primary voters, according to polls, would prefer another option. His declining health is one part, but he was never genuinely popular in his own party. He is the result of shenanigans.

At this point, Robert Kennedy is at 15% in the polls. Without anyone knowing anything about him, that is a good starting spot. There is a substantial antiwar vote on the Democrat side that has to be unhappy with what they are seeing. All of those Bernie Bros are still there in the shadows. The regime is trying to close off the Kennedy run before it gets momentum, but that may not be possible.

Joe Biden falling over on stage the other day brought back memories of Jimmy Carter facing another Kennedy in the 1980 primary. Carter won mostly because people still remembered that Ted Kennedy killed Mary Jo Kopechne by leaving her to drown in the backseat of his Oldsmobile. For his part, Carter was one mishap after another throughout the process, constantly reminding people that he was a loser.

We may be seeing this with Biden. It was not just that he toppled over on the stage, but that he could not get up without help. He looked like the old people they use in those commercials for LifeCall. We will see more of these incidents, as Biden is a frail old man struggling to get through each day. It is possible that this summer, Robert Kennedy catches fire as a way for Democratic voters to voice their unrest.

You also have to wonder if Gavin Newsome is not having second thoughts. He was sniffing around last year looking for support to run a primary challenge. Maybe the oligarchs who actually run things will take a look at him as a way to drain support from Kennedy, but also as an alternative to Biden. The next month or two could turn out to be the more interesting story to watch in this election.

This Week’s Show

Contents

Discussing The Primary
The Longshots
The Establishmentarians
Ron DeSantis
Donald Trump
Let Us Speak Of This No More

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Maybe This Is What It Is

Posted on June 1, 2023 by thezman

A popular plot device in movies is the hidden conspiracy where the main players slowly learn about a secret group that is actually running things. This secret group makes it look like the official systems are running things, but in reality, they are manipulating things behind the scenes for their own purposes. The movie The Matrix is basically a conspiracy story, except that the conspirators have conjured all of reality for humanity, who they have enslaved as batteries for some reason.

The flaw in all of these stories is that the people behind the conspiracy are so good that they are able to pull off the conspiracy. On the other hand, they make basic errors that allow the good guys to discover the conspiracy. This is done for the sake of expediency so we can get to the showdown between the good guys and the villains. Movies are about two hours of run time, so the filmmakers have to rush through the discovery phase in order to have time for the final act.

What they get right though is that those little things that do not make sense but are generally ignored by people. After all, if there is a secret group running things, it means they are changing things in violation of the rules. This was the basis of the Russian collusion hoax mania. The believers in this conspiracy were sure they had stumbled onto an event that had clearly violated the rules of the universe, thus proving that there is someone secretly manipulating things.

This makes even more sense when you consider that the people who fell for this conspiracy theory live in the world of narratives. Their understanding of existence is through narrative devices created by the likeminded. The people sure Trump was the result of a secret Russian plot think they live in a long running movie. For them, all of reality is just a long running story, the flow of history. The Russian collusion hoax was proof that existence is just one long story.

As nutty as these people sound, they are right in that if we are living in a simulation or one long story, then there is someone responsible for it. Maybe it is just a first mover who set the story in motion or maybe it is a computer programmer. Like The Matrix, our consciousness exists in a computer simulation. Instead of something cool like Warhammer 40K, we are stuck in a poorly drawn version of a world where child molesters get a whole month to honor them.

The other thing about those movies that ties in with the Russian collusion hoax and other popular conspiracy theories is that the people who discover the truth are always the weirdos and oddballs. It takes a person who naturally lives outside the normalcy of life to see the flaws of the narrative. Pursuing these anomalies in the story in the face of popular opposition requires a willingness to be unpopular. The movies are right that the people who will discover the conspiracy will be the oddballs.

The Russian collusion hoax was not real, but the people who were into it were strange characters who do not get along with others. We live in an age in which these people are selected by the people running the media, but it does not change the fact that these people are not right in the head. They are the same people who think their food is out to get them, that their gas range is in a plot with the minivan to kill Gaia and that there is an invisible Nazi army lurking in the shadows.

If you were a character in a conspiracy movie, the stuff in that previous paragraph would be a clue that things are not as they seem. After all, if the world operated by the rules everyone swears are in place, it should not result in the mass media being dominated by paranoid lunatics. Once it was clear, for example, that Rachel Maddow was wrong about the Russian conspiracy stuff, someone would replace her who is not suffering from these paranoid delusions.

It is not just the crazies that fall outside the rules. It is possible that these people are selected by the media because some people like freak shows. Most people do not like a freakshow, but some people do and it is a lucrative audience. In other words, it makes no sense to employ foaming at the mouth nutters in the media, but it makes sense if that part of the media is a circus. The universe suddenly makes sense again when you can explain these anomalies within the rules of the universe.

Of course, like the characters in a movie wrestling with the contradictions in the narrative, the story does not end there. What explains Jennifer Rubin? Look at her life story and explain how that makes any sense. Throw in the fact that she is clearly insane, and she is a massive bug in the code. Now, there are people out there who would offer an explanation, but that is just an alternative explanation for who controls the simulation that is our consciousness.

Like the kooks in the circus part of the media, the “serious” part of the media is full of examples that are not easily explained. How has a goofy looking bugman like David French risen to a perch at the New York Times? How has a talentless hack like Jonah Goldberg become a rich and famous pundit? Look around at public life and little of what you see makes sense within the rules as stated. Maybe the answer is we are living in an increasingly bug riddled simulation.

Again, maybe there is an explanation that does not require us to question the very nature of reality. Maybe there is a good reason we only have two mobile phone companies or two political parties that say the same things. Perhaps within the rules this all makes perfect sense once the rules are explained properly. You always have to keep open the possibility that it is not the world that is going crazy. You are the one who is going mad, and the world is perfectly fine.

Alternatively, the madness of this age, including the popularity of conspiracy theories and narrative hoaxes, could be in response to the fixes in the code. As the late physicist John Barrow explained, complexity results in error and the more complex human society gets, the more errors we experience. Many of these fixes fall outside the rules of our reality, so they lead some to question reality itself. The madness of this age is the result of a cumulative bug fix some have noticed.

If we take a step back from the simulation and conspiracy stuff, maybe the answer is simply that the incoherence of the world is due to an incoherence in the rules that govern our world. Through some combination of evolution, design, and serendipity, we have ended up with a set of rules that make perfect sense in terms of outcomes, because the rules are just as nutty as those outcomes. In other words, it is not a conspiracy we are seeing. It is entropy.

That may also explain the increasing popularity of conspiracy theories, especially among the primary beneficiaries of the system. It is far more comforting to think the rules are mostly fine and it is just some secret forces out there in the shadows responsible for the anomalies, than to think that maybe the problem is the rules and that maybe the system is in collapse. Most people would prefer to think they are living in a computer simulation than face up to reality.

Next Phase Of The Ukraine War

Posted on May 31, 2023 by thezman

It has been a year since the Russians began the process of shifting from a limited military operation to a full-scale war. After the Ukrainians withdrew from settlement talks in Turkey, the Russians realized the West was in it is for the long haul, so they had to adjust to this new reality. The first thing they did was appoint General Sergey Surovikin to take control of military operations in Ukraine. Then came a mobilization of 300,000 additional forces to support the war in the Ukraine.

What followed was a campaign of missile attacks on Ukrainian power plants, rail hubs and strategic infacilities. Then came the mass use of UAVs to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems. This was all part of the general shift from a quick conflict aimed at a negotiated settlement to a long grinding war of attrition. The purpose of this new Russian strategy was to slowly destroy Ukraine’s ability to conduct offensive operations with an eye on eventually destroying their military.

A year into this new war, the results are close to what many predicted when the Russians shifted to this model. The West lacks to military industrial capacity for this sort of warfare, so the supply of weapons to Ukraine has declined. Meanwhile, the Russians degraded Ukrainian air defenses to the point where they can now stage constant air raids on Ukrainian supply lines. The long talked about Ukrainian offensive has been indefinitely delayed as a result of these attacks.

It is hard to know what is happening inside Ukraine due to the tsunami of propaganda from the media and the volunteer army of regime toadies online. Trivial events are rolled up into glorious narratives that have no bearing on reality. When the Wagner forces captured the remaining high-rises in the city of Bakhmut, Western sources reported that Ukraine was staging a counter attack to encircle them. In reality the Ukrainians were simply staging a fighting retreat from their positions.

That said, it is becoming clear that the Ukrainians are in trouble militarily and the end may be closer than many realize. For starters, Zelensky now spends most of his time outside the country. Some have speculated that he thinks the end could come at any minute and would prefer to be elsewhere when it happens. For over a year he was doing zoom sessions from his bunker to entertain Western media. Over the last month he has found any reason to be outside the country.

General Zaluzhnyi, the man in charge of the Ukrainian army, has been mysteriously absent for over a month. One short video of him was released, after the Ukrainians put out a series of fake stories about his whereabouts. The man in charge of the defense of Bakhmut has also been keeping an unusually low profile. As with Zaluzhnyi, General Oleksandr Syrskyi was fond of entertaining Western media. Over the last month he has not made any media appearances.

Then there is the new tactic by the Ukrainians of launching drone attacks against civilian targets inside Russia. The first attack was a month ago that targeted the Kremlin before the big Russian holiday. Then there was the very weird attack on a border village with Ukrainians pretending to be anti-Putin Russian militants, using American equipment to stage an uprising. Last weekend, there was a wave of primitive drones sent at Moscow, with a few striking apartment buildings.

Of course, the weirdest thing to happen recently is the long running hype about a Ukrainian counter-offensive that was due a few months ago. It was supposedly set for March, but then was delayed due to weather. Then it was delayed until early May due to logistics and then delayed again for unknown reasons. Meanwhile the Russians have intensified their attacks on Ukrainian supply lines. Maybe one has to do with the other, but no one seems to be interested in the answer.

Maybe this is all 4-D chess, but the parsimonious answer is that things are starting to unravel in Ukraine. A year of increasing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s military industrial system has degraded their ability to fight. Two months ago General Milley said Ukrainian air defenses were near collapse. A couple of weeks ago a New Yorker pieced confirmed speculation that Ukraine was short of ammunition. The spike in Russian air activity over Ukraine suggests they now control the skies.

The weird behavior of Ukrainian leadership and the decline in activity by the Ukrainian military suggests their capacity to fight is critically low. The sudden use of insurgent-style tactics, championed by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence, may signal a shift in Ukraine in response to reality on the ground. What Zelensky and his generals may be preparing for is something like what happened in Iraq. The military collapses, but in a way gives rise to an organized insurgency.

This may be the final play by Washington. The neocons have been circulating a Korean-style end to the war. The Russians keep and hold their positions and the Ukrainians, with Western support, hold their positions. There is no logical reason for the Russians to accept something they have for something they do not want. If they keep fighting, they will soon break the spirit of the Ukrainian army and prevent the West from resupplying them with new weapons.

On the other hand, if Washington turns the west of Ukraine into a launching pad for Ukrainian terrorist attacks on Russia, maybe the Kremlin is willing to consider a deal similar to the Korean solution. There is history for this. In the Second World War Ukrainian nationalist worked with the Nazis to attack Russia. Today’s Ukrainian nationalist consider Stepan Bandera, the leader of the nationalists during the war, as a hero and example to follow.

This shift would have several benefits. One it would give Washington an excuse for not dealing with the issue. Useful idiots like Lyndsey Graham could be counted on to call the terrorists “freedom fighters” as he did with ISIS. It would reduce the cost to Washington, as terrorism can be funded at a fraction of a land war. Primarily, it would require Russia to keep fighting after the Ukrainian army was defeated. You can see the appeal of this to the neocons.

It is unlikely that the Russians would accept a Korean-style partitioning of Ukraine, if it means NATO operating in the rest of Ukraine. The neocons probably assume this, so they will move ahead with their insurgency plan. Since this will no doubt spill into EU countries like Poland and Germany, which have millions of Ukrainian refugees now, this has the added benefit of keeping Europe dependent on Washington. Terrorist chaos on the border of Europe is good for the neocon cause.

The Future Of Fed Plenty

Posted on May 30, 2023 by thezman

Americans have been conditioned to believe we live in a market economy where producers chase customers. The subtext to American politics for generations has been protecting the marketplace from the socialists. In reality, America is more of a command economy than a market economy. We do not think of it as a command economy because that phrase brings to mind commissars arguing about why the left shoe factory has a different quota than the right shoe factory.

While we have never had five-year plans or an official industrial policy, the people in charge have always had a tight grip on the economy. The primary lever since the 1980’s has been the money supply. The bank of all banks, the Federal Reserve, controls the flow of money in the system. While it does not decide how many shoes get made, it does decide the shoe maker’s cost of money. The Fed can create a recession to reduce demand and it can create plenty through cheap money.

This is not the only lever of our command economy. The regulatory state exerts an enormous amount of power on the economy. Right now, the EPA is plotting to kill off the gas stove market in order to please Gaia. The claim is gas stoves give people the cooties or something, but the real reason is the people in the EPA are primitives who follow a spirit religion. They can and often do change economic activity based on what their shaman has to say about Gaia.

It is not just the federal administrative state with power over the economy. The states have their own junior varsity administrative state. In Maryland, for example, they have decreed that all new homes must be equipped with sprinkler systems, like the sort you see in office buildings. The National Fire Sprinkler Association just happens to be located in Maryland. Their members, conveniently enough, have the exclusive right to install and maintain sprinkler systems.

That is the other level of the command economy. Large private operators can exert enormous pressure on the administrative and politics systems. They also get favors that small players cannot purchase. Every Walmart in America enjoys free infrastructure and tax abatements from local government. One reason the big box store eliminated the small retailer is they colluded with the state. Like the Bolsheviks in the 1920’s, America’s ruling party prefers consolidation into controllable industries.

The Bolsheviks liked large enterprises because they assumed they would be easier to control, and they would drive off the vestiges of capitalism. They were somewhat right about the last part, as we see today. The first part they never got right. By the 1970’s, the Soviet system grew increasingly complicated as it became less efficient, because the scale of the system outpaced the ability to manage it. There were too many variables and too many interactions between those variables.

The American command economy would have faced the same problems, and it was headed in that direction in the 1970’s, but a couple of big things happened. For starters, the decision was made to ship the manufacturing base overseas. Instead of trying to centrally manage an industrial economy, production was handed over to the third world so they could do it. The Fed could use the money supply to control the flow of manufactured goods into the system.

The other thing that happened was the microprocessor revolution. The Soviets recognized this as their way out of the complexity problem, but they were already past the point of diminishing returns by the time cheap computers and trained computer programmers were in sufficient supply. America escaped this fate, as the economic planners were able to harness these new tools to control the economy. The managerial state would not be possible without computers.

The trouble is our system is now suffering from the same problems the Soviets faced in their command economy. The complexity is overwhelming the system. The Federal Reserve has been fighting inflation for two years now. At the same time, spending has spiraled upward with no hope of arresting the growth. This forces the Fed to create more money through various means. The recent debt ceiling drama suggests there is no political way to solve the fiscal crisis.

It may not feel like a crisis as there are plenty of jobs and there is plenty of money to buy consumer goods. People have lots of complaints, but few of them are about the economy, as far as anyone knows. Given the monolithic nature of the media, we cannot assume that what we see in the press is reality. Even so, there are no bread lines and sales of houses and consumer goods are strong. Whatever problems that exist are not showing up in consumer behavior.

Of course, the years following the death of Stalin were good times in the Soviet Union, as their economy grew faster than any economy in the West. After recovering from the devastation of the war, shops were full of basic goods and the Soviet system seemed to be working better than capitalism. The Russians were ahead of the West in the space race, and they enjoyed a missile gap. Then red plenty slowly ground to a halt and their system fell into a generation long decline.

The fed plenty that American has been enjoying for the last thirty years may be about to turn negative for the same reasons. The system has become too complicated for the masters of the system to operate. In the Soviet times, the result was too many left shoes or mountains of concrete with shortages of winter coats. In this age, it means bans of gas stoves and diversity programs because companies care more about ESG scores than the desires of their customers.

This was always the argument against command economies. It was not so much that some unelected authority made decisions. It was that over time, they would always succumb to complexity. The lack of price signals subjected the economic trade-offs to political jockeying. In the Soviet system, the politically favored got what they wanted, even when it made no economic sense. In our system, we see the same phenomenon but colored with liberal jargon.

Perhaps this is where AI steps into the breech. The next great leap in data processing and decision making will overcome the complexity issue. Instead of armies of analysts with economics degrees pouring over data to draft reports for the managers, AI systems will do the work in real time, making changes to the flow of money and information in the system to overcome bottlenecks and political jockeying. Fed Plenty will become the objective of the robots put in charge of the economy.

Artificial Familiarity

Posted on May 29, 2023 by thezman

The internet has made it possible for people around the globe to easily pass information back and forth among one another. This is taken for granted these days, but it is truly a revolutionary event. Since the dawn of civilization information spread no faster than a man could run. In the 19th century the train made this process a tiny bit faster then cars and planes made it even faster in the 20th century, but the internet puts all of us, if we choose, together in real time.

While this feels like a miraculous development for the curious and productive, it may also be a curse we are struggling to understand. The internet puts the smart, curious, and productive people together, but it also puts crazy people together. That nutty woman in the suburbs who thinks she is a psychic can now join up with other women who also think they are psychics. They can form a “community” online where they encourage and reinforce their delusions.

The apparent rise in the number of pedophiles is made possible by the ease with which these people can now associate. In the analog days, these people could not easily collaborate with one another. Those cursed this maladaptation could not easily access this material and there was high risk in trying to obtain it. The internet made it easy for these people to work together to produce and disseminate this stuff. The curious now find this material after a few clicks of a mouse.

Recency bias is the tendency to overemphasize the importance of recent experiences or the latest information when trying to understand current events. The news seems to be full of pedophiles lately, so we think it is a growing problem. The Left coming out in favor of pedophilia now certainly adds to the sense that it is a growing issue, so we have to adjust for that possibility. On the other hand, the number of cases is growing at the same time the Left is celebrating it.

In other words, when it comes to child abuse, the internet is making it easier for the pedophiles to meet one another, thus increasing the phenomenon, but the internet is also making us more aware of it. This increased awareness is made possible by people aware of this trend easily communicating the particulars. The same forces that allow the pedophiles to collaborate in their activity allows normal people to become aware of it and organized to oppose it.

Counterintuitively, the internet is tribalizing society. In the analog days, the pedophiles were a small and manageable problem. These were individuals forced to work in isolation and therefore caused the minimum of harm. Normal people could trust that the odds and the police would protect them, so they saw no need to know much about this issue or work with others to guard against it. The internet brought these people together and they formed two warring camps.

Obviously, the pedophile issue is an extreme example, but relevant due to corporate America embracing the child molesters over their customers. The same tribalizing forces unleashed by the internet are most likely at play here. The beautiful people who make corporate policy now see the Dirt People everywhere. Whenever they go online, they are confronted by Trump voters, heterosexuals, white people and all the other demons their “community” says are evil.

A part of what makes internet tribalization work is that it allows people with a minority view to interact with others holding the same view. This reinforces the belief, but also gives them the sense they are a growing community and therefore their minority view will soon be the majority view. When disconfirmation appears, these people can trust that their online pals will find a way to cope with it and thus provide them a way to not only explain it but reinforce group solidarity.

A good example of this is the recent events in the Ukraine. As events have gone against Ukraine in the war, online communities create pleasing alternative realties where their side is on the march. This guy spends all day everyday explaining to the likeminded why bad news is actually good news. This guy spends his days creating an alternative reality for the likeminded. These online communities operate like the UFO cult at the center of this famous study in the 1950’s

T. S. Eliot famously wrote “Humankind cannot bear very much reality.” To some degree all of us are susceptible to escapism. We want some result, and we look for information that suggests it is happening. Some people, of course, go the other way and fear some result and look for information showing their worst fears are happening. It is two sides of the same coin and all of us are prone to it. Some people are more prone than others as belief operates on a scale like all human traits.

In the analog age, the limits placed on the flow of information left the believer in isolation unless he could physically connect with others. Joining a cult took effort, which is why so few people joined them. In the digital age, the internet is full of cults catering to every conceivable belief. Not only can you connect with thousands who hold your same hopes and fears, you can get instant confirmation that you are the good guy, and the rest of the world is the bad guy.

Of course, the internet is making us more aware of this reality. In the analog days we would have no idea that the Jewish guy across the street had a seething hatred for white people, but in this age we just look at his Twitter profile. Not knowing he hates you made it possible to not hate him. Knowing that he wants you dead makes it impossible to not hate him back. The more we know the more aware we are of the dangers that are lurking around every corner.

Since the dawn of the computer age, people have worried that the machines would become aware and then set about killing off humanity. The truth is, that process has already begun, except the machines are not doing the killing. Instead, they are holding up a mirror to society and letting us see ourselves. We do not like what we see, so we will find others who agree with us that we must kill off those other guys. It is not Artificial Intelligence that will get us, but Artificial Familiarity.

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