The Trump Gambit

For a few weeks, Trump has been saying and doing things that don’t seem to make a lot of sense. The black pill interpretation is that he has decided to cuck on all of his promises and cave into the establishment. Of course, the anti-Trump loons are claiming they were right all along and Trump is now finking on his stupid voters. Then you have the mouth breathers that hoot about 5-D chess all the time. The more likely explanation is that Trump is making a calculated gamble on himself and his read on public opinion.

Take the DACA controvery. Trump can count, so he knows the Democrats have far fewer members in both houses of Congress than the Republicans. He can cut all the deals he likes with Pelosi and Schumer, but those deals will go nowhere without the GOP leadership, as they control the legislative agenda. The game was to embarrass Ryan and Mitchell. By making it look like the Democrats were willing to work with him, he forced the GOP to make its own moves on immigration. It’s petty, but it works.

The other point of the exercise was to get people talking about immigration in a way that works in his favor. News stories about “dreamers” makes him look bad. He rightly figured that his voters would get mad over his rumored cave and they would take it out on the GOP leadership. It would also trigger the immigration patriots to fire off a million proposals for fixing immigration. From Trump’s perspective, turmoil is good as it gets his people fired up, looking for a fight and it forces the GOP leadership to respond.

Trump did not get this far by not understanding the political map. He knows he is the leader of the White Party, that has been forced to vote within the Republican Party. He certainly never says it like that, but he is an old school New Yorker. He understands the skins game better than most. His opposition is not the Democrats. His enemy is the GOP, that has traditionally served to blunt the interests of the White Party. Therefore, Trump needs to keep the fires burning for the coming fights in the the Republican primaries.

You see glimpses of what’s coming in the Alabama Senate Race. The White Party is lining up behind Judge Moore, mostly because he is not on the side of Mitch McConnell. Trump has endorsed the establishment guy, claiming to do so out of party loyalty. At the same time, an army of Trump surrogates are in the state endorsing Moore. Even Trump has given mixed signals about his endorsement of Luther Strange. There’s a wink-wink quality to all of it. It’s theater and everyone in the audience is in on the gag.

Next year, there will be a bunch of candidates running against GOP incumbents, promising to support the Trump agenda. There will be Democrat challengers making the right noises on immigration and trade. How successful these challengers are will depend a lot upon how things go in Washington the next six months. That’s the message Trump is trying to send to guys like Ryan and McConnell, who seem to be trapped in a fantasy world where the 2016 election never happened and they are beloved figures on the Right.

From Trump’s perspective, the result on Tuesday opens up opportunities. If Strange pulls a miracle and wins the election, then Trump will be tweeting about how he can deliver votes even for a bozo like Strange. If Moore wins, then Trump will tweet that he tried to be loyal to McConnell and the GOP, but they refused to learn from past mistakes. In a few hours, no one will remember that he endorsed the loser. Instead, the story will be about the impending disaster for the establishment GOP in the coming primaries.

There is risk to what Trump is doing in Alabama. If Luther Strange wins, the White Party will be discouraged and may start to turn on Trump. At the minimum, it gives the anti-Trump loons ammunition to accuse Trump of finking on his base. It could also embolden guys like Ryan, who are convinced that Trump has no base. On the other hand, a win by Moore and the same cucks will argue that Trump can’t deliver votes, so they are wise to oppose him. You can be sure they have those op-eds written and ready to send.

It’s a gamble, but Trump is a guy who thinks he can make something out of anything, as long as he has options. Whether it was by design or serendipity, this election is a referendum on the GOP establishment. The most likely outcome, according to polling, is a Moore win and maybe a very big win. Trump will not only take credit for it, but start to bet his winnings on the belief he can scare the GOP into passing his agenda items. They may hold the result against him, but Trump is betting they cave and play ball with him.

The reason it is a good gamble is the pressure on leadership will now come from their own ranks. Ryan and McConnell can keep discipline as long as they can promise their members they will keep their seats. If the rank and file start thinking they are safer with Trump or that Trump will back their challengers, then it is game over for Ryan and McConnell. They have to play ball. From Trump’s perspective, he has everything to game and nothing to lose. Ryan and McConnell can’t hate him more than they already do.

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John Smith
Member

Trump is just a stepping stone and a passing political landmark. The dissident right as you call it – is growing. They’ve done the soap box, they’ve done the ballot box, and this is pretty much the last chance for everyone to wise up and play ball. From here on out I think it will be cartridge boxes and candidates that make Trump look like a saint. The left has no answers, they’ve bankrupted their constituencies and all they have to offer Americans is to bankrupt the other half of the nation that still works and pays the bills. Life… Read more »

Member

Agree. I’d vote for a kangaroo in the next primary over the establishment goon.

Karl McHungus
Guest
Karl McHungus

we already have kangaroo courts, so why not!

Member
James LePore

I believe Trumps’s mixed signals on various issues (DACA, Strange) are tactical. His NFL gambit is a clear message to the Dirt People that he’s still on their side.

Member

In a way, earth shattering that Rush Limbaugh is boycotting football, or so he says. Sports is crack for too many so we shall see.
Still, in the culture battle (sideshow distraction) it is worth noting.

Al from da Nort
Guest
Al from da Nort

David; Agree. The NFL fracas features similar methodology on Trump’s part. Apparently the NFL was hiding in the weeds, hoping to ride out the planned media s**t-storm over concussions killing black yuts, etc.: Another re-run of ‘Black Lives Matter’ for anti-Trump political use. The NFL was apparently planning to play ball with the Cloud Folk by appearing to side with their employees while maintaining elite solidarity. But Trump flushed the NFL from cover amid great squawking. The only question now is how many shotgun pellets they get in the backside from their customers. As Instapundit says, ‘This is a battle… Read more »

Karl McHungus
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Karl McHungus

the nfl was dying before this fracas. now they are dying much faster. what’s funny about the CTE affected negroes (who oddly enough are more intelligent than non-CTE negroes) is they think they are showing unity against Trump, while their dwindling audience of whites see them as united against America. next season they will be handing out tickets in Cracker Jacks boxes…

Dutch
Guest
Dutch

Once you view the NFL as largely populated by thugs posturing for the cameras, it is so easy to walk away and never look back.

If I were in sports, I would be building a rugby or Australian rules football semi-pro league TODAY. White middle class guys want and need roughly played team sports, enjoyed over beers. Soccer and baseball don’t scratch that itch. Hockey does only to a point.

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

A thousand years ago they wore their hair long, dressed in leather, rode horses, played violent ball on long fields of grass, and drank mead.

Today we have bikers on iron horses, teams playing football and rugby, and men still drinking de beers.

And those Valkyrie cheerleaders….!

Member

Everyone up there thinks Argentina’s all about soccer. Here’s the rugby team:comment image

Look like the NFL to you?

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

Heh- Italians all look alike anyways.

From Taki’s:
“What makes people believe a more ‘diverse’ United States is going to be more free or egalitarian?”

http://takimag.com/article/looking_southward_costin_alamariu/print#ixzz4tpIudkmg

“Looking Southward” discusses the racial ‘casta’ system, as diverse as any castes in India.

I think one would have to play 5D chess with a diverse, caste-based parliamentary system. Imagine the stasis; would the corruption of “interests” cancel each other out, as ours meant to do? Perhaps that’s why Latin America is too busy for foreign wars.

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

PS- reading further, politics is all about War On Whites down there too, same as our beloved NFL

Member

Not the case in Argentina, Uruguay or Chile, not at all. Race isn’t really an issue here; social class is.

akajhon
Guest
akajhon

race is the social class,,History is racist,

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

Interesting, and thanks.
‘Noticing’ sounds more like a sport, then, without the implied malevolence assumed up here.

Dutch
Guest
Dutch

The thing is, semi-pros in less major sports are not so likely to behave like idiots. They love the gig, they want to play, and they don’t want to mess anything up for themselves and their teammates.

james wilson
Guest
james wilson

I once talked to a former boxer at my gym about rugby. He had been fifth ranked light heavyweight in the world. Said he tried rugby once but the play was too tough for him. Maybe Lacrosse.

Brigadon
Member

Actually it looks like a Texas Prison lineup.

Rube Goldberg
Member
Rube Goldberg

So – 5D Chess it is
Also, this sentence should read,
“From Trump’s perspective, turmoil is AS good as it gets.”

Rube Goldberg
Member
Rube Goldberg

Forgot to add the “sarc” and smiles 🙂
Oh well

Severian
Guest

That’s the funniest part of this “literally Hitler” business — of the many lessons we should’ve learned from that mustached fellow, a very big one for Establishment politicians is: The clown you think you’re using is actually using you, much better and far more ruthlessly.

Member

Moore has a double digit lead over Strangelove, and it increased after last night’s Bannon appearance. The GOP establishment is terror stricken. Trump has discovered their Achilles heel.

Karl McHungus
Guest
Karl McHungus

the gope is Achilles aquaphobic cuck cousin

RabbiHighComma
Guest
RabbiHighComma

There is zero plausible deniability remaining for the cucks. It’s similar to the Dems IV drip of claims of concern for the brown poor. With 50 years of Great Society decay data ignored, it can be concluded they don’t care about these people’s well-being. Back to the cucks. The gig is up and you can see it on their faces. Ryan looked like Terry Anderson’s 1980’s hostage videos during his recent town hall. (((Jake Tapper))) crafted the first 15min as a Marxist struggle session with a parade of jews wagging their fingers at him regarding Charlottesville and their mortal terror,… Read more »

Occasional Commenter
Guest
Occasional Commenter

Strange would stand a much better chance if McConnell hadn’t endorsed him. People down here noticed that. As I posted elsewhere, I’d vote for a dead syphilitic dog just to poke McConnell in the eye. And since there’s no dead syphilitic dog on the ballot, Moore will have to do.

Member

From Yahoo News tonight: Incumbent Sen. Luther Strange wished jurist Roy Moore well after losing the Alabama Republican primary for Senate. Strange told his supporters Tuesday night that “we wish (Moore) well going forward.” But he quickly shifted to his own bewilderment at the race he just finished. “We’re dealing with a political environment that I’ve never had any experience with,” he said. “I’m telling you, the political seas and winds in this country right now … are very hard to navigate, very hard to understand.” It’s only hard to understand if you don’t speak English. “We hate you people,… Read more »

Drake
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Drake

The next 9 months or so will be an interesting political stretch. Do the establishment Republicans value their campaign donations and whatever principles they have more than their seats? The great cuck-chuck of 2018 is coming – are they going to try to avoid it?

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

The politicals have forgotten how to make money without screwing their customers.

chris
Guest
chris

I think Trump weakly backed the establishment Luther in Alabama because if he actively turns on the GOP establishment then the GOP establishment would happily work with Democrats to impeach him and get him out of office and replaced with the more establishment Pence (which with the Democrats help they would have the numbers to do). Trump has to essentially subvert or cuckold the GOP establishment while they aren’t looking.

Anonymous White Male
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Anonymous White Male

I have difficulty understanding why Paul Ryan is still Speaker of the House. I mean, I don’t really have difficulty understanding it. I know it is because he gives exquisite blowjobs to his masters. But, there are essentially 3 parties in the Federal government now. The DemonicRat party, the RINO’s, and the pro-Trump contingent. And Trump’s is the smallest of the 3. Trump is theoretically the acting head of the Republican Party by virtue of being elected President as a Republican. But, he has almost no control over his party. The longer the Swamp stymies his efforts, the more his… Read more »

Dutch
Guest
Dutch

No one knows what is coming next. But as elected officials go, I will put my bet on those who are most nimble and capable of rolling with the punches. Most of them can’t tell you if it is daytime or nighttime by looking out the window.

Karl McHungus
Guest
Karl McHungus

Trump owns the republican base — all of it. As Zman said, ryan and turtle have been conning the other house and senate members about that fact. Once the scalp count from the midterms comes in, those two turds are finally flushed. no lobbying $$ for them either (i bet).

Dutch
Guest
Dutch

Democrat donor dollars have dried up. Can’t wait to see the GOPe donation glide path go the same way.

Dems wanted political donations blocked (in a “wink-wink, nudge-nudge” sort of way). Trump is delivering on that.

Anonymous White Male
Guest
Anonymous White Male

“ryan and turtle have been conning the other house and senate members about that fact.”

Do you really think there is any conning involved? You have to make sure your minions know what you want them to know, plus at least enough information to know what boundaries have been set down.

Karl McHungus
Guest
Karl McHungus

there is mutual conning going on, but i would say the vast majority of elected gop officials are gope and need to be primarried ASAP. only need to claima few scalps to get the rest in line. keeping the traitors from cashing in as lobbyists is what’s really critical to draining the swamp.

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

About those ‘donors’- Remember McConnel, running for reelection, but he “gave Kentucky a new dam!”

Dollars to donuts he created the ‘private investment group’ that built the dam, and has a family member on the board to harvest it’s future profit flows.

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

Built the dam *with taxpayer funding*

Occasional Commenter
Guest
Occasional Commenter

As best as I can figure out, a big reason Ryan is still speaker is that no one else really wants the job. Things are too squirrelly.

Member

Trump gave Strange the most backhanded endorsement you can give somebody. He basically said, “Well, if he manages to win, we’ll get credit for that. But if he loses, I’m going to campaign like hell for the other guy.” If Moore wins, expect additional primary challengers in red/Trump states against the Flakes currently holding those seats. In fact, you might look at this primary as a bell weather of the Flake primary next year, and he will not get a backhanded Trump endorsement. Trump has already tweeted out support for one of the opponents (Ward), and has people helping her.… Read more »

Ursula
Guest
Ursula

My impression is the All-Hands-On-Deck alert called by the donor/ruling class during the election season to drag Hillary across the finish line was never cancelled. The donors/ruling class are still exerting immense pressure to bring Trump’s Administration to a premature end, which explains why you see the Leftist Congresscritters acting and talking absolutely crazy nonsense and the Right not supporting the MAGA agenda or our President even though voters gave the GOP the White House and Congress to get it done. So the Congressmen have even less agency than usual due to this pressure. Whores.

Al from da Nort
Guest
Al from da Nort

Z Man; Excellent analysis. However, I’d posit that the MSM is *still* the enemy center of gravity*, even after the election, and not entirely the GOPe per se. It is as much for fear of the media as it is love for their big donors that the GOPe is stalling his agenda (that they ran and won on). In addition to providing favorable election coverage, the media can, to some extent, direct large donations from those who care about ‘hangin with the Kardashians’ in elite circles. They do this, of course, by hyping up one Repub. (looking at you McCain… Read more »

Karl McHungus
Guest
Karl McHungus

the gope is the enemy inside the wire. they *have* to be taken down first, in order to get anything else done. Ryan and Mcconnell are like the Diem brothers 🙂

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

Absolutely- gotta get thru the guys running interence to get to the guys with the ball

(Diem brothers! Let us pray for such a fate!)

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

Interference
(Allergic to sports, unless holding 3 min-wage jobs at a time since 14 is a sport, wish I knew the futbol terms)

TomA
Guest
TomA

I don’t think most folks nationally understand how the Confederate statue destruction movement is playing in the deep South. This travesty opened a visceral wound that will not heal quickly or easily. The Alabama senate primary will be the first manifestation of how deeply and passionately they react to the carpetbagger methods of Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan.

Farmer in the Dell
Guest
Farmer in the Dell

Having been a single issue—Second Amendment—voter for the last few decades, I got from Trump what I wanted: Gorsuch. Anything else is icing on the cake.

Another thing Trump might be doing that seems counter-intuitive presently is letting anti-Trumper Mueller do all the heavy shovel work on digging a hole to punish, or at least expose and shame, Hussein’s spying efforts.

Dutch
Guest
Dutch

The more Mueller scrambles, and the less he delivers, the greater the Trump victory over the rest of the Washington swamp. A high-risk gambit by Trump, but it just might pay off for him in a big way.

Member

Zman, I guess you are just having fun with this, but it comes across wrong…. you do the “white party” folks in Alabama a disservice pondering that Trump might lose them if Strange wins. Kinda insulting. As if they aren’t aware… as if there is another national candidate, much less office holder, that has so solidly trashed the status quo and spoken in the olden tongues of nationalism and American is great, etc. Those Moore supporters are really going to feel so betrayed, they’d stay at home and not vote for any other politician b/c of Moore losing? There is… Read more »

Rich Whiteman
Guest
Rich Whiteman

You’re pretty damn smart, Zman. I don’t go for multi-D chess, but the patterns are easy to see for the non-rabid.
President Trump could use a hand like you on the ranch.

Alzaebo
Guest
Alzaebo

He’s HUGGING the chicken to scare the monkey!

cerulean
Guest
cerulean

It is easy to become impatient with the President and worry that he’s given up or never really intended to drain the swamp. I do it frequently. This post and the comments reinforce how wedged-in Trump actually is … multiple rocks and hard places. I don’t know that I believe 5-d chess is going on, exactly. But it’s pretty clear that significant action requires prelimiary changes and those changes, in turn, require their own prerequisite changes. I think the man is playing the long game about as well as anyone could. When I get impatient, I remind myself that without… Read more »

George Orwell
Guest
George Orwell

Yes, given that the most proximate backstabbers to Trump are in his own party, he has to play the long game. I often look around and think that elections change nothing, but then think “Neil Gorsuch” and realize half a loaf is better than none.

Dennis
Guest
Dennis

“it wouldn’t have surprised me to see an executive order making sites like this illegal.” More likely it would have been an IRS audit, a visit from whatever government agency they could best harass him with, and an NSA scan through his phone and e-mail records for any dirt they could throw at him.

cerulean
Guest
cerulean

I agree, Dennis.

George Orwell
Guest
George Orwell

“His opposition is not the Democrats. His enemy is the GOP, that has traditionally served to blunt the interests of the White Party.” Never forget: the Republicans didn’t defeat the Dems last November; Trump did. He won because he’s Trump, not because he’s “Republican.” The GOPe deserves zero credit for his victory, the GOPe being merely the trailing edge of the Democrat wing. As Michael Walsh has observed repeatedly, there are not two parties but one Permanent Bipartisan Fusion Party. Put another way, last year’s election was Cloud People vs. Dirt People. Had the cucks nominated ¡Jeb! or Micro Rubio,… Read more »

Member

The Dems and GOP are merely the two wings of the same bird of prey,

Member

They’re two sides of the same bowl of slime mold, you mean.

Our American Eagle is a bird of prey, and has little resemblance to the Dems or GOPe. It is majestic; the Uniparty is not.

Rod1963
Guest
Rod1963

The uniparty’s symbol ought to be a Turducken .

Karl McHungus
Guest
Karl McHungus

with the head of one bird jammed up the cloaca of the other

Russtovich
Guest
Russtovich

“he has everything to game and nothing to lose. ”

Minor nit; in 2nd last sentence I think “game” should be “gain”.

Cheers

cerulean
Guest
cerulean

Somewhat related: more rocks and hard places revealed: “Most pollsters and pundits report that President Trump’s approval ratings are in the tank… In every poll, Democrat respondents outnumbered Republicans by significant amounts. The Economist poll was the worst. Only 24 percent of respondents (360) were Republicans compared to 38 percent (570) Democrats – which means that 58 percent more Democrats were polled than Republicans …” https://www.bombthrowers.com/article/mainstream-political-polls-commit-fraud/ Actually, TheConservativeTreehouse.com reported this phenomenon often and in detail during the Presidential campaign. The good news is that increasing numbers of people are distruting the institutions that have been feeding them shit — in… Read more »

Chazz
Guest
Chazz

While congress people of diverse genders were publicly wetting their pants over Trump’s “fire the sons-of-bitches” broadside to the NFL, I’ll bet their mail boxes were filling up with letters saying “right on”.

Swingy pee
Guest
Swingy pee

America will soon be a Nation of Color. Nothing you can do about it! Sorry!

How does it feel? Knowing that your daughters will bear Children of Color

Ursula
Guest
Ursula

Pathetic provocation. If you hadn’t been dumbed down by your low-IQ people-of-color genes, you might have been able to do better. Can’t help it, it’s your haplogroup! Don’t worry, smarter and more decent people will continue to create civilizations that would otherwise be out of reach for people like you. You’re welcome.

Occasional Commenter
Guest
Occasional Commenter

White is a color.

Karl McHungus
Guest
Karl McHungus

white is the sum of all colors. black is the absence of any color.

Tim
Guest
Tim

Tiny, if you were as intelligent as you are persistent, you would be a rich republican. You know that don’t you?

james ?wilson
Guest
james ?wilson

I’d bet $5 he is working for our side.

We_wuz_kangs
Guest
We_wuz_kangs

How does it make you feel? Knowing that your sons and daughters would live in a semi-moronic third world backwater if that were to actually come to pass?

Oh, I forgot. You can’t think that far ahead.

Member

The Republican rank and file know darn well that they are not safe with Trump’s voter base. The gig is up for RINOs.

Saml Adams
Guest
Saml Adams

Always go for the simple. If you’ve watched Trump around New York, he thrives on chaos, since his OODA loop is tighter than most. Don’t think much different now. As I believe Z pointed out, most of the Washington press corps (and most Democrats now) are like kittens with laser pointers stapled to their foreheads—give them anything distracting and they are after it. So he give them distraction and Trump can do it faster because he is untroubled by the normal political calculus that McConnell and the Fossils go through. The NFL is a double bonus since the base loves… Read more »

Chuck Shumer
Guest
Chuck Shumer

“everything to game and nothing to lose.”

Ursula
Guest
Ursula

Chuck Schumer, “Head Clown”

Karl McHungus
Guest
Karl McHungus

moore wins decisively! any chance of a post-vote recap Zman?

Dutch
Guest
Dutch

“Oooohhhh, that’s gotta hurt!”

RWnova
Guest
RWnova

Ash?

Member

Maybe it’s me, but does it seem logical that Bannon would be booted out of the White House, only to show up in Alabama to help Roy Moore win down there? That seems pretty logical to me. Play the establishment game in D.C. to get them off your back a little bit, but send your people down to AL to help the opposition win.

Expect a bunch more “retirements” this year to be announced. Jeff Flake is toast.

Brigadon
Member

It’s not that we think Trump is playing 5D chess… it’s that he’s playing Chess and most of the public, Media, and Politicos are still playing checkers.
He makes mistakes, and failed gambits, But he is a master at grasping opportunity and always has been… as long as the game keeps moving, he can find a way to win. His enemy is stagnation, and so he occasionally has to shake the board to keep it going.

james wilson
Guest
james wilson

I’ve posted this before, and will again. Tocqueville–The mental habits which suit action do not always promote thought. The world is not directed by longand learned proofs. All its affairs are decided by the swift glance at a particular fact, the daily examination of the changing moods of the crowd, occasional moments of chance, and the skill to exploit them.

CaptDMO
Guest
CaptDMO

I could use you help in the pending election Mr. Trump.
Very well Mr. Moore. Here, hold my beer*. Watch THIS!
“I, Donald Trump, Support Mr Strange, in no uncertain terms, as the BEST candidate for this HUUUUUUUge job!!!!!!”
Anything ELSE Mr. Moore?
No, Thank you Mr. President.
(* Yes, I KNOW he doesn’t drink.)