Back in 1976 the argument against Reagan and conservatives in general was they could not win. It was not an unreasonable argument, given what happened to Goldwater in 1964. Nixon winning in 1968 seemed to reinforce the idea that the winning hand for the GOP was a hawkish liberalism versus the Democrat’s dovish liberalism. For conservatives and libertarians that was a revolting development, but political parties are about winning elections and distributing the spoils to their supporters.
The funny thing is this debate rarely happens with Democrats. The American media is far to the Left of the party on most issues. The cultural elites are way out there where the buses don’t run. They lose faith in the Democrats now and again, but they have no problem yanking the party back over to the Left every decade. In the 1970’s Ted Cruz would have been a typical Democrat. In the 1980’s he would have been a moderate Democrat. Today he is extreme right wing Republican.
Since 2008 the GOP has been locked in a battle between the Wets and Dries of the party. The fight is between those who wish to strike deals with the Left and those who want to take a pipe to Nancy Pelosi. In 2010, Tea Party types who lost were held up by the Wets as an example of their side’s argument. Mitt Romney was waved around by the Dries after 2012 as an example of why you can’t win with a limp noodle.
History, polling and logistics say the GOP should wipe the floor with the Democrats in November. Obama is less popular than Bush in 2006, according to some polls. The Wets made sure they had their people in keys races so they would not be derailed by a weirdo claiming to be a witch or an old perv talking about rape.You can’t come up with a better scenario for the Wets than what they have right now. If they win the Senate by a few seats, then they win the argument.
You really have to admire the ruthlessness with which the Wets have snuffed out the Dries. In Kansas the Wets carried a corpse to victory over the Tea Party candidate. In Mississippi, they played the race card to carry another corpse to victory. In open races, all of the Wets won. They even found a way to split the anti-Graham vote in South Carolina so that ridiculous pansy could keep his seat. I’ve followed politics for a long time and this is about as thorough of a house cleaning as I can recall.
That’s what makes this post by Jim Geraghty interesting.
It is not quite time for Republicans to panic about the Senate races in Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina, but it’s worth ratcheting up the concern another notch.
In Iowa, it’s been a while since Joni Ernst enjoyed a lead:
The last poll that had her ahead — by 1 — was conducted from July 5 to 24.
In Colorado, the good news is that incumbent Democrat Mark Udall remains below 50. But Cory Gardner can’t seem to get over the hill and take the lead:
In North Carolina, the concerns about Thom Tillis are triggered mostly by one poll showing a surprising six-point lead for incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan. But he, too, has had difficulty getting the lead against an incumbent with indisputable problems, and this is in a state Romney won.
Republicans can still win control of the Senate without these races. They need to hold GOP-held seats Kansas, Kentucky, and Georgia; win the expected near-locks of Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and then win in Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana. But it must be disconcerting that as the national polling environment looks better and better for the GOP, these three races — and for that matter, Michigan — are not seeing a comparable boost for the Republican candidates.
If those three states remain Democrat, the GOP will not win the Senate. They would need a miracle in New Hampshire to get a 51-seat majority. When you look at the numbers in Kansas, the corpse is in a dead heat with the Democrat, an actual live human. People are funny about voting for dead people. They tend not to do it. Maybe the GOP can reanimate their guy before election night. It probably results in a 50-50 result, which means the Democrats retain control of the Senate.
Joseph K – I never said Cruz was a libertarian. I meant that the libertarian/Tea Party/Ron Paul supporters worked like hell for his senatorial election.
And as far as I know, Cruz has honored every statement he made in his campaign. Is it wrong to want the job of president? I sorta think anyone who gets elected MUST want it. And want it bad[ly].
We ran a Hamiltonian in 2012, Mitt Romney, wasn’t good enough. We ran Teddy Roosevelt in 2008, wasn’t good enough. The social conservatives got their man in 2000 and 2004 and he wrecked the country. Conservatives keep talking about betrayal, and then canonize Michele Bachmann. Conservatives thought Newt Gingrich could be President because he insulted a pundit. It’s not Conservative Inc. that made a guy in a sweater vest into its last great hope, it was the True Believers. Reagan may not have been conservative, but he was conservative enough. So was Mitt Romney. In many ways Romney was more conservative than NASA Newt and Mr. Contraception, but it wasn’t good enough, so we got Barack Obama.
Of course, with Ted Cruz, things will be different.
To blame Republicans for their condition of spinelessness and stupidity makes no sense. Once, ok, but after the first twenty or so betrayals we might want to get a handle on the problem. Under the grip of universal suffrage there is no place in politics for a conservative party. Reagan was no conservative. As he pointed out, he didn’t leave the Democrat Party; it left him. The only Founder who would have a place around electoral politics today would be Hamilton.
I’m sorry, but Ted Cruz is about as libertarian, or Libertarian, as Bob Barr, another ambitious faker whom no one pays attention to any longer. Of course, no one ever paid any attention to Bob Barr, so Cruz does have a leg up there. Ron Paul, on the other hand, is a genuine Old Right Libertarian, in the great tradition of Robert Taft and Howard Buffett, and is deserving of the utmost respect, even if one does not agree with his position. Paul is a man of principle; Cruz is an ambitious cult leader, a pasty, epicene loudmouth with a secret drawer full of checkered ties. No wonder he and Glenn Beck are having a bromance.
Cruz wants the Presidency, and he wants it bad; he’s not just looking to increase his speaking fees and line his pockets, like Gingrich. And you don’t get to be President without making a deal with Conservative Inc. Period. Of course, Cruz being Cruz, he won’t die the death of a thousand self-inflicted cuts, as Rand Paul is now doing. No, he’ll go down in one apocalyptic flame-out.
Here is Bela Lugosi speaking for Tru-Cons and their invention of Ted Cruz:
http://youtu.be/OFAUq9cqC9k
“…Libertarian weirdos have wandered into the fight…”
I can’t speak for anywhere else, but here in Brazoria County, Ron Paul’s home base, the Libertarians and libertarians saw an opportunity to take over the republican party. They have made significant inroads, notably Ted Cruz (who I seriously doubt will make a deal with anyone, much less Conservative, Inc.), though the push to replace Perry in his last campaign for gov, and Ol’ Cornie in this last senate race failed.
I don’t see them giving up – I know some of these guys, and they have the Alamo mindset. They’ll keep trying.
The problem with the “Dries” is their candidates. They are inept and embarrassing. Mitt Romney looked like Churchill compared to the droolers and mouth breathers in the 2012 GOP primary.
2016 is looking worse. Huckabee keeps winning Iowa polls. Every couple of months some Tea Party columnist touts Bobby Jindal as the second coming of Russell Kirk. Some snake-handler just suggested Ben Carson for VP. Rick Santorum has already pulled his sweater vest out of mothballs. Rick Perry is taking fashion tips from Glenn Beck. Sarah Palin is still out there tweeting talking points written by Heritage interns. And then there is Ted Cruz.
Tru-Cons can occasionally take down a major figure, but they cannot get one of their Z-leaguers elected when Conservative Inc. is paying attention. Ted Cruz could have a nice career as a cult leader in the Senate, but he wants to be President. That means he has to make a deal with Conservative Inc. Given the trouble he’s caused them, that will mean a couple of pounds of flesh, close to the heart.
I keep telling Cruz Cultists that he’s going to be the new Rubio, Conservative Inc.’s point-man on the Great Immigration Betrayal. They don’t believe me, but then they didn’t believe it when they were warned about Rubio, Ryan, Cantor, and the rest of their former heroes. Given the turmoil in the Democrat ranks, and the GOP’s almost genetic dysfunction, 2016 is shaping up to be quite a spectacle. Pass the popcorn!