The Break Up

Americans, probably like everyone in the West, just assume that the shape of our countries will remain the same forever. Conquest is something you read about, but that’s all in the past so the map will stay the same forever. Similarly, we tend to think that revolution is no longer a part of civilized life. The savages have revolts maybe, but the civilized countries have elections to sort out problems.

Of course, maps are not written in stone. There’s no reason to think that France will stay the same shape forever. The people of Normandy could decide they have had enough of being French and break off to form their own country. The people of Catalan are trying to do just that by voting for independence and then going to court over it.

But, those Spanish are hot blooded and all that. The English speaking countries don’t have those problems, other than in Scotland, Wales and Quebec. Even so, these are more symbolic than anything else. There are protests, votes, court cases, more votes, but that’s it. No tanks in the streets or men with guns preparing for the revolution, because violent revolts are things of the past.

What if they’re not? What if the Scots and English can’t resolve their differences peacefully? What then?

On the other hand, what if the people in charge keep going down the road they are going and the people finally get fed up enough to do something about it? In the US we have protests at the Mall, but never anything serious, at least not for a long time. But what if we’re just overdue and things are slowly coming to a head and revolution is just around the corner?

There’s a new book that argues the US is long overdue for a revolt and the current consensus is breaking apart, suggesting the revolt is right around the corner. James Piereson is a think tank guy at a fancy think tank called the Manhattan Institute. His book is one of those “theory of the world” sort of things where he has this theory that explains parts of the past. He then uses it to make some predictions about what’s coming next.

I’ve never written a book review and I have no intention of starting now, so you can read this one or you can read this one. There’s also a podcast here with the author. As an aside, I suspect the future of book selling is going to be podcasts. A thirty minute discussion of a book is a great way to sell books.

Anyway, I’m not entirely sold on the thesis. My own view of US history is as an extension of the English Civil War. For instance, Piereson argues that a consensus emerged in 1800, but the New England states were ready to split from the Union up until the outbreak of war with Britain. Similarly, those same states would have signed off on the slave states seceding if not for the foolish assault on Fort Sumter.

Putting that aside, one can’t help but wonder if we are headed for a crackup of some sort. If you look at the map of recent presidential elections something jumps out. That is, very few states are actually in play now. In 2016, the fight will be over Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. The rest are firmly in the Roundhead or Cavalier camps. For the candidates, the only reason to campaign in most states is to raise money and put on a show for the folks in the toss-up states.

The chaos in the GOP primary is mostly due to the fact that no one really represents the sensibilities of the regions that support the GOP. Bush is from Florida, but he may as well be from Boston. Rubio is from Florida, but the part wholly unlike the rest of Florida. The only two candidates that represent the GOP regions are Kasich and Huckabee and both have too many other problems to be serious candidates. Trump is from New York and it has never been in the Roundhead or Cavalier camp. Otherwise, the people running are foreigners to their voters.

Having the country divided into camps is one thing. Having one camp ramming through stuff just to spite the other is where things get dicey. The crazy ObamaCare bill was mostly spite. Homo marriage was entirely spite. The revolt brewing on the Right is really a revolt among the troops over their leaders refusal to fight. Students of the Crisis of the Third Century are familiar with this phenomenon. At some point, there will be a fight, whether it is with these leaders or new, more rambunctious ones.

The thing few notice because the people in charge tend to keep it quiet is the Roundheads would not mind it if the other part of the country seceded. Progressives hate the South and southerners with the intensity of a thousand suns. For a long time now, Progressives have been thinking, if you will, that it is time for the South to leave the Union. For obvious reasons this does not get promoted by the people in charge, but a lot of them hold this opinion.

The assumption, an incorrect one, is that the Old Confederacy along with Texas and Oklahoma would be cut loose, while the rest of the states would make up the slimmer and trimmer United States. Reality is probably something else. Look at that map and the lands of the Roundhead are mostly Yankeedom. The few other blue states would mostly likely go with the red states for practical reasons.

But, maybe the southern states will insist on marching from Worcester Mass to Boston, burning everything along the way, just for old time sake.

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Aeneas
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Aeneas

“James Piereson is a think tank guy at a fancy think tank called the Manhattan Institute.”

Maybe the US will split in the future but one thing I know is that these think tanks from the NYC-Washington(-Tel Aviv) axis have to be burned to the ground.

TheBigWhit
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TheBigWhit

It is good to read all around issues, from competiting perspectives.

The antithesis of the “think tank” crowd is a book written by murdered writer Edgar Steele named “Defensive Racism”. In it Edgar writes about the “Balkanization” of America. No longer a north/South thing, there are now a number of extremely competing interests and regions.

UKer
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UKer

If nations have fundamental splits built into them (Cavaliers/Roundheads; Confederates/Unionists; Kurds/Iraq; Catalan/Basque/Spain and so on) then there will come a point where the welding together of disparate beliefs must — under stress — come apart. What we don’t understand however (and perhaps never will because human nature will always be something of a mystery) is why our so-called leaders insist on putting more stress on this potential fault-line. Outwardly they talk of unification and solidarity, and then go right ahead and come up with a plan as divisive as it is possible to be. The weight then is put on… Read more »

Severian
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Outwardly they talk of unification and solidarity, and then go right ahead and come up with a plan as divisive as it is possible to be. I think the insularity of the political class explains most of this. We tend to forget how small the ruling class really is, and how closely connected. I spent some time in an Ivy in another life and was shocked at how buddy-buddy the whole thing still is. Not only did all these people go to college together, they went to kindergarten together. [ZMan, don’t you do something at Yale? Can you confirm or… Read more »

UKer
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UKer

Thanks, Severian, for your thoughts. I have heard that not only in the UK all the parties know each other well, but that when Cameron wanted to be big in politics he thought about joining the Labour party but as they already had Blair in position he chose the Conservatives. Therein is the problem: it did not matter to Cameron then one little bit who gave him the leg up to power because the voters’ beliefs were of no interest to him. Politics is just a well-paid game and you can argue a case for either side between sipping champagne… Read more »

Severian
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I imagine it’s much worse in the UK, with the Oxbridge clique in control of everything. On the other hand, at least most UK folks (is it un-PC to say “Britons”?) that I know realize the Oxbridge clique controls everything. Here in the good ol’ USA, most of us still believe all the fairy tales about hard work and rising from humble origins. Since most of us will never spend any time at Harvard, we have no idea how the scam really works. In reality, Bush and Clinton are no different from Cameron and Blair. They think it’s their birthright… Read more »

Member

Yet if you were to ask the average American whether they worry about their country falling apart, you would get an incredulous look and a question of whether you were a little bit insane.

Member

The average American is a sheeple totally disconnected from politics, the economy, (past their own accounts) or any signs of devolution or dissolution.
ProgreSSives and Patriots are despised by each other. Once the economy actually implodes and the society frays these cracks become gorges.
I no longer fly the flag of the obamanational USSA, a big change from 9/11, but CA, IL,MD, NY, etc may as well be Bosnia or Croatia to me.

Steve
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Steve

To a certain extent I agree with you, but where I live in NY ( around 90 minutes of NYC) the Manhattanites despise us the same way they despise Southerners and cowboys. They consider people who have: Fireman’s Carnivals, church bake sales, 4th of July parades, CYO car washes, fishing & gasp – HUNTING – as nothing more than a bunch of backwater primitives who have to be dragged into the 21st century. Last year there was an effort here to sever the state into two: NYC, it’s five boroughs plus Westchester County ( the county directly north of NYC,… Read more »

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JDawg
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JDawg

I have finally come to the conclusion that I simply do not want to live or associate with lefty democrat socialists. Sure they’re nice people, many of which are very talented artists and creative types, but I am at odds with the way they think and what they think. I can’t change them and they can’t change me, so let’s cut our losses and go our separate ways. I mean I want liberty and they want control, or at least to be recognized for their purported brilliant solutions. It’s just not going to work. People who want to be left… Read more »

MNartist
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MNartist

There are quite a number of artists who prefer “to be left alone” so please don’t paint all of us with the same brush. You might be surprised to hear that some of us former lefties have actually seen the handwriting on the wall (the immigrant invasion) and have, consequently, changed our tune lately.

mcknife
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mcknife

The vitriol we are seeing over the past 10 or so years will, IMHO, lead to a break up of the USA. Perhaps the first incision could be the N/S divide, but having spent a LOT of time in BiH and Kosovo, it is my belief the more likely split will be balkanization of the FUSA along about these lines: 1. Texas, deep and mid South maybe TX, LA, OK, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, AR, maybe TN and KY. This could also morph into several lesser entities. 2. Southwest to include Southern California (thank goodness), NM and AZ (reconquista).… Read more »

Member

Washington, ID, Oregon, Montana are already slated to be in the Northwest Republic. The Mormons will form the “Free State of Utah”. The Southwest will go to Aztlan (La Raza) with the worst fighting in Western Texas to settle the Border there. Libs will flee East and North, Probably finding San Francisco the most hospitable area. Alaska with have its Independence, though with its short growing season it will be dependent on food imports.

The worst areas will be “New Africa” (deep South) and the area around Chicago/Detroit which will form the new Caliphate. You risk your life going there.

colddeadhandsdays
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colddeadhandsdays

What about FL? This is a SERIOUSLY Divided state.

UKer
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UKer

Cuba will reclaim it. Sorry

ragman
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ragman

I call BS on “New Africa”. White folks in the South are the most fiercely independent thinking people in this country. We are well armed, well trained(ex military), and we are not about to give up our homeland to a bunch of ferals. Try “New Africa” along the DC, Baltimore, Philly corridor. Florida is indeed seriously divided and you can count on everything north of Palm Beach to join the New South.

james wilson
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james wilson

It’s a wonder this county has lasted so long, but the longer is it forced together the less a well deserved nostalgia will survive into the future. Our sorry state leads one into a glorious appreciation for federalism. The only way to predict the future on this one is to have thrown enough spaghetti against the wall so that the future will be left stuck on it. But all of these possibilities are better than a manged descent into the progressive dreams for the future. That’s my bet, though. The meek will inherit the earth, meekly. They just won’t run… Read more »

PMain
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PMain

A more accurate map to use would be the individual counties and not the state. It will show that the red portions of the US gobble up the majority of the land mass – including all of Central CA, OR, WA eastward. The Blue areas are the larger, coastal cities. Though any split would deprive the Red portions of the west any deep water ports or access to the Pacific. I’d imagine that San Diego to Orange County would be in play and that any succession would result in a push west for port cities. UKER – I’d suggest reading… Read more »

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Paul Bonneau
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More likely, all 50 states will secede from DC, essentially dumping the worthless and evil federal government, and recombine in local confederacies of 2 to 5 states.
http://www.ncc-1776.org/tle2008/tle485-20080921-03.html

(for some reason TLE is out of order so the above link won’t work at the moment)

Gary Stone
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Gary Stone

Try this scenario on for size. Led by Texas, the oil and agricultural rebel states of central flyover land join up. Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Alaska, maybe even Alberta, Saskatchewan, the Yukon and British Columbia. With the offshore assets we’d control a large chunk of the oil and gas production and more grain than we could ever need. Not to mention the cattle, cotton, mining, and wildlife. PLEASE don’t throw us in that briar patch!

Steve C.
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Steve C.

The good news: there are more of us than there are of them.

The better news: people are beginning to realize that

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Walt
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Walt

Well, I live in RI, but I hate it. If the south burns everything from Worcester to Boston, Id sure would like to help. 🙂

DOUG
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DOUG

I live in about as rural and geographically, and culturally, remote place you can be in America of 2015 and still be physically located in America. I look out from my home and I marvel at the things being done by the State and Financial/Corporate entities. They are a banana republic regime without the death squads, yet. I have not the slightest inkling of what kind of revolution is going to transpire. But one thing that I can not deny is there will be a breakup/breakdown of what I see right now. No doubt in my mind. Its already begun.… Read more »

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[…] On the other side of the street, the GOP is soon to become a very southern and southwestern party. Mark Steyn famously said that the future belongs to those who show up and right now it is the people from these nations showing up to vote GOP. They will get leaders that reflect their values and desires. Cultural Marxism is not going to be on the table, but maybe a divorce will be in order. […]