Election Reset

We had the great debate and my guess is nothing much changed from 24 hours ago. This election has always been about finding a reasonable alternative to Hillary Clinton, someone a large majority of Americans don’t like very much. One of the oldest rules of politics is that a well known, well established candidate polling below 50% is in trouble. Often, an incumbent that is in such a spot gets a primary challenger as his own party smells weakness, so a young gun is sent in to finish him off in the primary.

The one thing the sissy boys of Official Conservatism™ probably got right about this election thus far is that the other choices in the GOP primary would have probably started with a huge lead over Clinton. The collection of dwarfs assembled by the party had all been vetted to make sure they were the emptiest of empty suits, thus ensuring the Left could not say anything mean about them that anyone would believe. Guys like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio would start out with the Cloud People seal of approval, thus beginning as an acceptable alternative to Clinton.

That’s why none of those options won the nomination. For good or ill, the GOP is the one place where the Dirt People can have a voice and they loudly rejected the dwarfs on the grounds they were nothing but low-tax liberals. Trump is not the ideal candidate, but he talks about the things normal people think are important and that made him look like a giant compared to the rest of the field. Going into the general, he was the high risk option, as far as an alternative to Clinton. As a result, he started from the trailing position in the polls

That has slowly changed over the last six weeks as voters were reminded of why they hate Clinton. Trump has also modified his approach, working on selling himself to the doubters, rather than throwing red meat to his fans. He has also avoided the traps the press has laid for him, which lets people know he can turn it on and off when he wants. People can tolerate a little bit of rough talk as long as they know the candidate knows when to behave. As a result Trump has closed the gap and may very well be leading now.

There’s another way to think of these things, which applies here. In every election, the three big categories are security, economics and culture. They are not of equal importance and some issues fall into all three buckets. Immigration, for example, has a bit of all three, depending upon how it is being discussed. The voters are looking for a general sense of which candidate is more compatible on each of these three areas. What holds it all together is the voter’s sense of the candidates trustworthiness on these matters.

For instance, Mitt Romney polled much better than Obama on the economy, but no one believed Romney. He had been on all sides of all issues for no reason other than expedience. Even though the things he was saying with regards to the economy made sense, the assumption was he was saying them because they polled well. Mitt is one of those pols who will come out in favor of bestiality, if some consultant tells him it is a winning issue. In his case, being right was of no value because he lacked authenticity.

In this election, Clinton’s honesty problem is not a big issue because her lying does not change the voter’s sense of where she stands on the big three items. On the other hand, Trump’s authenticity is a great benefit because it makes him trustworthy. You may not agree with his position on an issue, but you know what you are getting with Trump. His authenticity not only helps him on a personal basis, it helps him overcome the uncertainty issue all newcomers face. It makes him seem less of a risk.

This is why the walls are closing in on Clinton. If you look at the map, states are going from “too close to call” to “leans Trump.” If you look at the polling, states like Georgia and Florida are just about a lock now for Trump. Ohio has been abandoned by Clinton, suggesting her polling says it is over there. States like Colorado and Pennsylvania have now moved into the toss-up category. In all probability, more people were reassured by Trump in the first debate than were convinced Hillary is worth a second look.

There are more debates and plenty of chances for both to harm themselves. Hillary could fall over again or Trump could punch a hobo. At this point, you would rather be on Team Trump as the wind is at his back and his road forward is clearer and more controllable. Clinton will need some help and she has to hope everyone that has dirt to dish is too afraid to go public. Still, she has the media and most of the GOP behind her and that is no small thing. The state of the race at the moment is Trump ahead by a tiny bit.

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meema
Member

I don’t believe polls. For one thing, I am quite sure there are closet Trumpers who intend to get behind the curtain and cast their secret vote and never reveal. And, quite possibly there are closet dems who say they are voting for Hitlery but don’t. Then there are those who simply won’t vote, on some cockamamy principle like all those Evangelicals who wouldn’t vote for a Morman and so they ushered in a Muslim. So much for principles. What I fear is voting fraud. There was quite a bit of that in 2012 and I expect there will be… Read more »

Member

Brexit is the model, I’m thinking. Trump will be losing right up until he wins, and wins comfortably. In fact, I predict , IF he wins, he will, by necessity, win by overwhelming numbers. The Dems will cheat and there will be vote fraud. The way to overcome that is by large turnout of real folks voting. We’ll see. I think ,… well… I hope a lot of folks that just don’t vote anymore come out and vote for Trump. If Hillary wins, game over. Sit back and enjoy life, cause politics will be a sealed-up done-deal for the Progs.… Read more »

Guest
Guest
Guest

Romney lost the election because of his documented and indisputable track record as an investment banker who got rich by raiding companies, stripping their assets, firing their American workers, and shipping the business overseas. Period. You can do a lot of things in America and still become President, but being a corporate raider who destroys the livelihood of honest, hardworking Americans (aka dirt people) is NOT one of them. You must remember Karl Rove making a complete ass of himself on election night asserting that the conservatives in rural Southwest Ohio would turn out to swing Ohio over for Romney.… Read more »

Notsothoreau
Guest
Notsothoreau

I don’t know about the printing money part. He seems to dislike hedge fund traders and said he wouldn’t retain Yellen.

Larry Darrell
Guest
Larry Darrell

Wikileaks is supposed to release massive dirt just days before election day.

Bluehat
Guest
Bluehat

A red Chairman Mao suit was awful for Presidential wear and psychologically says communist. The repetition of Trump was good because that makes points stick. NRA, second amendment, bad trade deals, also hack by 400 pound guy on a bed was funny. He also has the “guts” to mention China and was able to debate her even if she had more detailed political speaking points which frankly mean nothing in his election. Clinton stated that women should be paid the same as men if they do they same quality of work, and presumably vice versa. I’m still wondering what’s wrong… Read more »

Member

What that harpy Clinton and other advocates for equal pay want is equal pay for job titles. Betty Sue and Bobby Lou have the same job title, work for the same company and have the same degree in the same field, but that’s where the similarities end. Bobby Lou puts in, on average, 20hrs of work more, per week, than Betty Sue. Booby Lou also goes the extra mile with clients, is more professional to employees and has provably better quality of work. Tell me why Betty Sue should get paid as much as Bobby Lou? You, Crazy Clinton and… Read more »

LetsPlay
Member
LetsPlay

Wasn’t that rich? The Dems, Blue State and all, and she wears the classic red “power” suit from the ’80s. And her bit about spending the last two weeks studying to be ‘presidential?’ Man, did Trump whiff that one. Fast ball right down the pipe and he didn’t even see it! But you have to admit she did better, bobbing head doll look and pasted on smile and all. She should after having spent her entire adult life in the biz as a stinking, conniving, failed politician. The trite lines rolled off her tongue without a second thought. She always… Read more »

Member

Since Trump has a reputation (rightly or wrongly) for boorishness, braggadocio, and uncouthness, there is much more pressure to conceal one’s support for him. Hillary as the anointed champion, not so much. Trump supporters have been attacked by paid mobs and had their property defaced, Clinton supporters not so much. So I predict the Silent Undecideds are overwhelmingly Trumpists.A couple more gambits by the Black Looters Matter or the Muzzies, and They all will fall to Trump. Hillary’s secret reserve is the cemetery vote, and the ununiformed invader vote. I don’t do lawn signs, but I’m a proud Deplorable.

Alcogito
Guest
Alcogito

Some states have crazy lax voting standards. E.g. Washington, where you vote by mail, can register online and don’t even have to include your SS number, and nobody checks. That’s why the Burlington Mall shooter from Turkey who killed 5 people last Friday was a Hillary supporter who voted last year even though he is not a citizen. Only silver lining, Washington is a sure Dem state, being dominated by Seattle-Tacoma nutjobs so it won’t change much.

joe
Guest
joe

Nice thing about the electoral college – it prevents the (D)irtbag dominated states from using fraud to neutralize all our votes. I think each state should award thier votes on a county by county basis – an electoral college within each state for statewide and federal offices, so the cheating (D)irbags can only use fraud to put a lock on areas they dominate enough to drive poll watchers out.

Alcogito
Guest
Alcogito

Washington doesn’t even have poll-watched because we don’t have polls. Get a ballot, mail it in. Cancel my vote with your illegal on, and nobody cares.

Member

Here’s what happened. They both want stop and frisk, at gunpoint, under color of law, for your own good, absent cause, or else. They both want secret black lists of people who have committed no offense, under color of law, at gunpoint, absent cause, or else. The first secret black list is for people who will be denied freedom of movement when attempting to enter into a private contract to transport themselves and a small amount of property to point B. The second secret black list of your friends and neighbors by your other neighbors will contain those whom the… Read more »

Doug
Guest
Doug

The dirt people have won this round. I think that is the wind at Trumps back. (Awesome phrase Zman). And it is known by those who watch these things who have the true data. The only way that doesn’t happen in actuality is if the PTB pull a fast one and commit massive vote fraud, or worse, pull the plug on us in some desperate last ditch effort, to keep us dirt people from winning. Theories abound how that could be done. But we are talking about the most dishonest crooked people imaginable here. Not for nothing it is what… Read more »

joe
Guest
joe

There’s a loot pile in the trillions at stake, well organised criminals are used to and NEED that money to keep themselves in power – and they need power to keep themselves from being investigated by an honest and cleaned out DOJ and FBI. What better job for a power mad psychopath then being a (D)irtbag politician? The MSM, bureaucracy, and “justice” system will all cover for them, and they have mobs of stupid thugs to intimidate and destroy at need. They have to be the slipperiest, lyingest of psychopaths in order to rise above the other slime, and their… Read more »

UKer
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UKer

The difficulties you have in the run-up to this election is two-fold. Firstly, the poll. However they spin beforehand, the only poll that matters is the actual election vote itself and presuming is not tampered with, offers the best solution. The team that scores most wins is true across all ball sports, and may well hold true in November — although I accept that all elections have unfair boundaries and imbalances, which is why in the UK Labour got to win in previous elections by gaining fewer votes in total but could squeeze out a narrow win in more constituencies.… Read more »

Karl Horst (Germany)
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Karl Horst (Germany)

I actually enjoyed the rantings (and I mean that in a good way) of Mr. Farage in the EU Parliament. The way he went after Mr. Van Rompuy was stuff of legend. And despite the Brits being told they were a bunch of backward, xenophobic idiots if they agreed with him, the results of Brexit were ground breaking. I actually expected Mr. Farage to take a leading role in the British Parliament, but that is evidently not the way of British politics. From what I have seen with respect to Mr. Trump’s popularity, he is speaking to and connecting with… Read more »

Drake
Guest
Drake

I’m the last guy to make fun of people for grammar typos – but “punch of hobo” sounds like a great party drink. I assume the first ingredient is MD 20/20.

Member
James LePore

I don’t think Donald did badly, but a little preparation, especially knowing he would have two adversaries, wouldn’t have hurt.