Is Europe Lost?

Imagine an island populated with a tribe of people. The Blue People have been a stable population of about 9,000 people, distributed over three generations. One day, a new people begin to arrive. The island of the Red People exploded and refugees are floating up on the beaches of the Blue People island. The result is about one thousand Red People are now living on the island. It is an accommodation the natives are happy to provide and the newcomers are generally thankful for the sanctuary.

The demographics of both groups are reasonably stable, with the slight difference in fertility rates. The Blue People have a TFR of 2.0 and the Red People are at 2.5. To keep this simple, we’ll assume war, famine, disease and so forth are not issues. Think of this as an economics model, where reality is excluded, in order to make a point. Even though the Red People are breeding at a slightly higher rate, the differences are so slight that hardly anyone notices. Even so, in ten generations, the number Red Children will equal the number of Blue Children.

Now, let’s imagine that the Red People have fertility rates closer to what we see in the Muslim world. That means they will rival the Blue population in just five generations. If the Blue People see their fertility rates drop to something closer to modern European rates, the populations on our island are equal in three generations. It’s why the question of Europe’s future is first and foremost, a math question. Which is why, as Steve Sailer pointed out, no one likes talking about demographics in Europe these days.

While demographics are destiny, things change quickly. Arab fertility rates have been plummeting for more than a decade. Iran has a TFR below replacement. The same is true of the Turks, who are also suffering a brain drain. Then there is the political dimension that can seemingly turn on a dime. This is why the political season in Europe is a fixation of the global press. Normally, these elections are just ceremonial, as the political parties agree on most everything, except who gets to steal first from the treasury.

Brexit changed that and the rise of the Trump Party in America now makes even the smallest election on the Continent into a big deal. It’s why the government media made the recent Dutch election into a referendum on their hopes and fears about what’s happening in the West, with regards to the rise of patriotic parties in opposition to far-left globalist parties currently in power. Geert Wilders, the very odd looking Dutch politician was pitched as the challenger to the very acceptable Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

The setup was that the Dutch had a choice between a lunatic hate-thinker and the normal, sensible establishment man. There was even an effort to throw Wilders in jail for blasphemy. The reason the media chose to pitch this election as a referendum on patriotism is that there was no chance for Wilders to “win” the election. The Dutch make it so that no party ever gets a majority of seats in their parliament. Instead, the “winning” party forms a coalition with some of the “losing” parties to get a majority government.

Wilders and his party are well outside the political center so there was zero chance of his party being included in a ruling coalition. In other words, the result was known in advance so it was a safe bet for the globalists to carry on as if it were a referendum on their blessed rule. The post election stories declaring populism dead were written in advance of the vote. Wilders did well and his party increased their number of seats, but fell short of exceptions. Even so, the globalists cheered, hoping this was an omen.

Again, no one really cares about the Dutch. They are the least representative of Europe and that has always been true. But, the global ruling class is looking down the road to the French elections and later the Italian elections. There is a decent chance that Le Pen wins the first round of the French election, which would be very embarrassing to the European elite. They could live with that, as the main parties can be sure to join forces in order to defeat Le Pen in the second round.

There is some small chance that the mainstream parties could falter or fall into squabbling and not be able to present a united front. The French ruling class is showing signs of decay. You see that with the candidates they have offered up in this election. It is a rogue’s gallery of careerist hacks with the personality of government clerks. Scandal is also a problem with some of them. Then there is the fact Le Pen is getting close to 30% of the vote. Events keep conspiring to reward her positions, with regards to immigration.

The fact is, Europeans are starting to notice the numbers. It may not be so easy, as the Red People and Blue People on our imaginary island, but Europeans can spot a Moroccan when they see one. They notice that the guys rioting are Turks and the guys stabbing people on trains are always yelling “Allahu Akbar” while doing it. They also notice that the people in charge have no answer. As Chris Caldwell points out in this Mark Steyn interview, they are left with trying to convince people that this is the new normal.

Even so, it is hard to get away from the math of it. Europe is old and barren, while the swarthy invaders are young and fruitful. Demographic transformation can happen quite quickly, which is why the natives are now rightfully fearful of islamification. A majority population, increasingly worried about the foreign minority population, ruled by a governing class paralyzed and unable to respond, is a recipe for a very bad result. Europe will quickly reach a point where they have to abandon social democracy in order to survive.

The alternative is Europe ceases to be Europe.

87 thoughts on “Is Europe Lost?

  1. The problem with pointing out the mathematics of the population change is that we are not in isolated bubbles. We are in areas where groups of people may move freely with very few restrictions. I have always wondered if mathematicians could come up with an equation to point out the inevitability of the end of one culture due to displacement of the host population. Unfortunately, there are too many variables involved so that those that intend for the West to be destroyed can use such nomenclature as simplistic, paranoid, racist, diversity, inclusion, slippery slope arguments, tin foil hat wearers, etc. It is obvious for those that have common sense and can think for themselves what the end will be. Short of war, I don’t think we can do anything about it. Laws are flouted and the courts are on the puppet master’s side, along with the media, education, religion, national bureaucracies, silly women, and worthless men.

    • Ecologists have already come up with this equation. It’s called Gause’s Law of competitive exclusion.

      • two species competing for the same resource cannot coexist at constant population values. When one species has even the slightest advantage over another, the one with the advantage will dominate in the long term

        The questions is what happens when direct violent conflict is engaged in between the 2 populations, which one will dominate. SO far the European governments are acting against the interests of its native population (Kalergi Plan???) so rate of reproduction is the current competitive factor. Once economic decline removes socioeconomic restraint the question changes. For the most part the invading population is visually distinct from the native population (unlike the US where it is “messier”) and once open violence kicks off its trivial for the 2 populations to target one another. Then the question is which side is more effective in physical conflict.

      • Gause’s Law postulates that one population will dominate another in an ecological niche. It doesn’t have an equation that can predict the rate at which it will occur. Plus, it primarily focuses on non-human species. Humans can even have more than 2 populations competing. They also can travel around the world in less than a day. They also can be programmed by abstract concepts that have no validity in and of themselves. Non-human species do not usually do things that are self-destructive for things like altruism or virtue signaling. Like I said, there are too many variables.

        • “It doesn’t have an equation that can predict the rate at which it will occur.”

          You have basically defined all of “economics” not just Gause’s Law. Economics has few, if any, predictive equations. It is largely a soft science that observes past events and comments on them. Or, defined, it is the science of explaining tomorrow why we were wrong about what happened today.

  2. if europe somehow finds the will to expel the muslims, and their population levels drift down a bit, then the cost of family formation will drop — and presto! more families. that is the ame reason you see so little family formation in large U.S. cities — except within the welfare class.

    if europe got rid of social welfare — i.e. socialism — the muslims would leave. works on the same principle as dissuading ants from the kitchen by not leaving food out for them.

    • I’m not sure that’s possible or even correct. Living on the black market in Rotterdam beats living anywhere in the Arab world so even if they figured out how to get the Muslims off the dole, the Muslims will not leave.

      Of course, in order to overthrown the welfare system, you have to have a revolution, shoot all the politicians and most of the managerial elite.

      • Hence one of the 2 populations will have to exterminate the other. going back is not possible at this point. The political elite of Europe has now built in a deathmatch of historical proportions. The pope jumping in on the side of the “rapefugees” also put the odds in favor of it simultaneously becoming a Holy-race war for both sides.

      • There is a bigger long term issue in play. Automation means a lot less jobs for everyone. Its not that simple to just “drop the welfare state” unless the private sector plucks up the slack and quickly.

        Also there are fixed material costs to things, its not possible to assume that things can “deflate” enough to make a lower standard of living comfortable, Labor is only a part of the cost but its all of the consumption.

        That said Europe can deport the migrants if they wish and prevent new ones from coming this does not suggest that 80 million people in a nation the size of a smallish state (Germany is roughly the size of Oregon) is sustainable with the kind of people that make modernity possible.

    • https://mtntopforge.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/rise-motw.jpg?w=696

      The consequences of the cultural marxists agenda to destroy the legacy of the West in Europe and America has created a defensive identity movement of men of the west. It’s rumblings are beginning to coalesce into a zeitgeist not unlike Alt-Right in its grass roots beginnings.
      The globalists in Brussels are idiots running through Hell with an open container of gasoline.
      The EU is Carl Marx’s ghost come back to haunt the dummies for buying into a deal just too good to be true. Kind of like Hope & Change?
      Is the majority outside that zeitgeist like what Machiavelli stated:

      “It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones”.
      -Niccolo Machiavelli

      Does this fit Merkel to a T?:

      “The beauty of Magic Dirt Theory is it reinforces the magic of race.
      If the whites raise an objection to having their neighbors owning pitbulls or having loud parties on week nights, it is just proof that the horrible bad whites are trying to deny blacks access to the magic dirt. The only solution is to redouble efforts to transplant more blacks into places like Ferguson Missouri. If the magic dirt does not take, then it just shows how powerful the magic of racism really is and why the good thinkers must never quit trying to beat back the bad thinkers.”
      -from Impractical Magic
      http://americandigest.org/sidelines/2015/11/magic_dirt_theo.html

    • If Europeans ever abandoned the welfare state…oh, wait…the Europeans are never going to abandon the welfare state.

      But if they did, they’d still dive off, and there would be empty buildings and real estate to move into when they’re gone.

  3. Z Man, great as always. “The fact is, Europeans are starting to notice the numbers. It may not be so easy, as the Red People and Blue People on our imaginary island, but Europeans can spot a Moroccan when they see one.”

    For a more in depth, and therefore not so easy, account of how this horrid tale of Europe (and possibly elsewhere) is unfolding, read Matthew Brackens’ “The Alienorc Way”. Easy to find on the net, a good read and more analogous to the self inflicted islamification Europe (and elsewhere) suffers from.

  4. If you read Vox Day http://voxday.blogspot.com/search/label/immigration he believes ‘Europe’ is on the verge of a Anders Brevik-style revolt over refusegees. Understandable, due to him living in Italy. Like you, I’m not so sanguine, the mean age of ‘Europe’ skews old and the mean age of the rapeugees are mostly military age (and in many cases, no one knows for sure their exact age so they get put in schools even if they may actually be adults) with a 2×4 sized chip on their shoulder.
    If I was betting, I’d put my money on conquered within 30 years.

    • Part of implementing the globalist agenda via the theory of Magic Dirt is to demoralize the dirt people under the ruse resistance is futile against another musloid invasion. I think your going to find no matter the circumstance currently, that is a suckers bet.

      • I would bet one way on Europe and the other on the U.S. When they ring the bell in Europe, ain’t nobody gonna show up.

    • I wouldn’t. Food is a good weapon and the systems that provide it to Europe are very fragile. No welfare, no food in no go zones, no immigrant problem.

      I’m told that parts of Malmo in Sweden will no longer receive electrical service already,

      By comparison the US has been invaded by 50 million Central and South Americans, far more as a percentage than Muslims or Africans in Europe and Europe and until recently done basically nothing.

      Europeans have been rather more aggressive with arson and street violence among other things and while more controlled by their Left, have been fighting much longer and harder.

      Upside of Trump is he has unleashed Europe a bit, with him making efforts here and eastern Europe there they also need not worry about Wesley Clark 2.0 being sent in to liberate them nearly as much.

      • Like it or not those Hispanics are more American than moslems on day 1. US can do a lot of nothing regarding those folks, and except for crime there is very little else evil coming from them. They will slowly become American citizens in one or two generations. Moslems, now that’s another story.

        • Though Hispanics share Christianity with the bulk of Americans, they do not share the same traditions and heritage of the bulk of Americans of European descent. The Hispanics also are, generally speaking, less educated and have lower literacy rate, which has definite impact on our country. And the biodiversity folks say the Hispanics have lower IQs and are more violent than white European stock. Glad at least they’re Christian, but they still completely change the former European make-up of the US. Many never assimilate, never learn English and hate the white European types. La Raza! Reconquista!

          • This is so true. I live in a heavily Hispanic area and all my daughter’s friends are, therefore, Hispanic (mostly Mexican, but also Salvadoran, Guatemalan, etc.). She is very fortunate not to have my fair coloring and “passes” as “Mediterranean” due to her father’s ancestry. If the average American could read what is written on facebook by the “average” young Mexican, (some brought illegally as children, some 2nd and 3rd generation), I daresay they would be shocked. The hatred and contempt for whites and the joy with which they celebrate their numbers (and our dispossession) is pretty sobering.

    • Italy will resist the vermin invasion the longest in my opinion due to their stronger family culture and pride of culture. My money is on Europe conquered in 15 years.

  5. Your model is a simplistic one based on the premise that the demographic shift will remain constant and that public and official opinions will remain static. As we know from history, it’s never just one single variable, but multiple variables where anything can happen.

    No one knew if the USA would be able to remain a nation after the 1776 Revolution any more than anyone expected the British empire to completely collapse after nearly 300-years of successful empire building. The same goes with China who went from Communist peasant nation to becoming an economic super-power in our lifetime, and in less than one generation. And then there’s Brexit which everyone said would never happen.

    Tossing Muslims out of Europe is no more likely than tossing them out of the US. Not because Europeans are so liberal or because we are all a bunch of “socialists” (whatever that means). The reason they won’t get tossed out is because our respective Constitutions guarantees freedom of religion. And keep in mind anyone can become a Muslim; it’s not a race or ethnicity, it’s a religion that anyone can freely choose to follow – or not.

    However, tossing them out of the country (or at least into prison) for promoting the overthrow of the government or breaking civil laws are a different issue all together. In fact, Germany is cracking down on the Turks who recently came here to promote their government. European young people are starting to wake up the reality of what multi-culturalism is doing in their schools as well.

    Many Muslim Turks, Syrians and other middle east immigrants who came to Europe decades ago, despite the popular press, want nothing to do with Islam given they have enjoyed the benefits of a free-capitalistic system for several generations. They know exactly what would happen if they returned to their homeland and fully appreciate the loss of freedom they would experience if Islamic law took hold here.

    Before you decry our “socialist” attitudes being the problem, you might want to read a good main-steam European newspaper. Then you might begin to understand how Christians Churches are responsible for pushing the human rights agenda in order to encourage accepting refugees, regardless of their religion. Unless you consider Christians as another bunch of socialists too.

    • The churches and synagogues in the States ARE the vehicles the state uses for refugee resettlement. The Lutheran Church imported the Somalis into Minnesota, for instance. Most of the older Protestant denominations are basically outposts of the Democratic party at this point.

      • The churches get paid very well for this resettlement stuff. Much more lucrative than passing the plate up the pews.

      • Ghastly goings-on in my old church, the Protestant Episcopal. It used to be such a patriotic American church, always with a polite nod to the “old” country of its origins. Used to be very welcoming to all fleeing from other more stringent denominations, whether Catholic or hard-core Puritanical denominations, also to upwardly mobile Jews who married shiksas. Those wishing to become “real” Americans, of whatever race or religious background, used to find a church home here. When I was a kid, the Cab Calloway family drove 20 miles to attend our beautiful little church. Their daughter was in my Sunday school and Confirmation classes.
        It was not unduly burdensome to participate in the lovely liturgical ceremonies, harking back to biblical times. Hearing the King James bible passages in the Book of Common Prayer was a college education itself! I was married there in 1968. Tried to raise our children as Orthodox Episcopalians. Not sure it “took” as our grandchildren are being raised with no religious schooling. Don’t think the church will be around in 25 yrs., a very bad
        situation.

    • Constitutions are pieces of paper containing the aspirations of dead men.

      Freedom of religion is a myth. The civic religion of the West is the dominant religion and the legacy faiths are tolerated, as long as they remain quiet and docile.

      • @ thezman – Not at all! The Constitution is a living document, which can and does change to support a viable Republic. I’ll take the writings from intelligent dead men over an idiot dictator any day of the week. Been there, done that.

        You say freedom of religion is a myth? Then the same can be said for freedom of gun ownership or any other right. Governments may be able to oppress the freedom of practicing a religion, but they can’t take away our belief in it.

        • The constitution is whatever the counsel of high priests think at the moment. That old paper hanging in the national archive is no more significant today that Washington’s old wooden choppers.

          • Hey! Who is this? This does not sound at all like Zman.

            I think you, whomever you are, have hacked, the blog and are speaking in Zman’s voice but you sound nothing like him.

            What the heck is going on here?

      • Zman, your comment about the Constitution(s), U.S. I presume, is so cynical. Maybe you are reading WRSA a bit too much.

        I have not read anything that compares to the beauty and wisdom put down by our Founders in the Declaration of Independence, Constitution and Bill of Rights. Maybe you can point me to better. I’m open. But I have yet to see for myself.

        • According to the SCOTUS, the Founders thought homosexual marriage was an inalienable right. Either the constitution is dead or the past is imaginary.

          • You are right about the current situation but of course nothing is free of politics, nor has it ever been.

            The Supreme’s are split 50/50 and do not judge based on the Constitution, except for only a couple of jurists who are dedicated to such. The others are just tools like Congress-critters are.

            But the ‘words’ of the Constitution are ideas to be upheld by good people, and we obviously have very flawed people in positions even if they come from some of the most prestigious institutions of this country. But as I always say, intelligence is not the sole arbiter of worth; character is the other side, the balance to the scales of justice that should be used, if available. Unfortunately, sadly, they are found lacking.

    • Karl,
      It seems that the choice is unsupervised systemic support ( social programs and housing) or supervised systemic support (incarceration)
      Either way the financial burden is on the tax paying population…. Either way you are paying to be less safe.
      How about eliminating the financial burden altogether?
      I understand and am familiar with some transplanted arabs/muslims with ‘tenure’ in Europe….. people that wanted out of the oppressive ignorant mindset that exists throughout the Mena…. but we here in the redneckt states of America never hear of them having warned other Europeans of the impending jihad … Or working in the community to ensure safety for ALL…. not just themselves….
      The only example I can speak of with familiarity is the Cuban population in South Florida that are proud and stalwart Americans, that have been very vocal about relaxing sanctions against Cuba AND view dependence on taking government handouts as weak and somewhat repulsive.
      Unlike other populations there that view working the system as a religion…..

      • @ Clayton – What you’re not seeing is the global immigration issue which is less publicized over here. Russia took in over 12,000,000 over the past 5-years but not much is mentioned about it. American has the benefit of only having to deal with Southern immigration, which are for the most part, Christian.

        And don’t fool yourself into thinking the Muslims are the only ones who rule by force of theology. The US has a long history of significant religious influence, not always beneficial to all citizens. Free black slaves did not benefit from the Bill of Rights or Christian charity for almost 100-years after emancipation.

    • Karl, I think you first logical mistake is to believe that Islam is a “religion.” The word Islam mean “submission.” And as we have seen of late (heck, throughout history for that matter), it is not a ‘religion of peace.’ And it is not just Europeans but the global environment that has been fed a bunch of hooey about tolerance for religious freedom when this political-social construct poses as a religion to worm it’s way into current successful societies that are “open” for the taking.

      This is a war whether or not people want to believe it. The number say one thing in support of that. It is war by different means. The door has been left open by ‘democratic’ societies and are paying for their own demise by supporting these invaders and continuing to welcome them by the thousands.

      And secondly, you seem rather quick to blame what I see as a rather diminished ‘church’ for Europe’s ills. I would put the blame squarely where it belongs … on those great folks over in Brussels who think they are the new masters of the world. The blinders are finally coming off the populace as to the realities of the ‘rulers’ of the EU, and the invading horde from the ME.

      Your fight, like ours in America, is on two fronts … domestic and foreign enemies who are using and twisting the good will and largess of the American law and public to their short term advantage. But the tide is turning. God be with us all.

      • Generally speaking, religions are nothing more than a man-made system of unprovable beliefs created to control other men.

        Mormonism. Scientology. Hinduism. Paganism. Take your pick.

        And let’s not forget, the basic tenants of Christianity are summed up in the Lords prayer with “thy will be done” which is another way of saying Christians must give full submission to our God just as Muslims must give full submission to Allah.

        And yes, I do understand the difference between these two religions. I’m simply making a point that all religions require submission. Submission is the whole point of every religion just as it is with all political institutions. Whether king, president or pope, the subjects will submit to their power. And we all know every religion ever devised, including Christianity, has been used as a political weapon against other people just as Islam is being used today. One only need look in modern-day Ireland to understand that concept.

        I’m not defending Islam, far from it, but simply making a point that the attitudes towards immigration and the European refugee crisis crosses both political and religious groups and that they are all complicit and responsible for the current situation.

        I’m not blaming the Church, simply pointing out an overlooked fact that some Christian groups are also responsible for encouraging refugees into Europe under the pretense of “Christian charity”. It’s not all Angela Merkel and the chattering skulls in Brussels telling everyone they should embrace these people and their culture.

        I don’t want Islamists in Europe, or America, anymore than you do. But with immigration control, we can limit it as we are doing now here in Europe. However we can’t stop people from becoming Muslim if they chose to do so. At least not with the Constitution and Bill of Rights as they exist today.

        • “becoming Muslim if they choose” is not even remotely what we are talking about here Karl. When we talk about submission, yes, there is always a degree of submission in all interactions. Employee to employer. Husband to wife and vice versa (at least it should be that way! 😉 )

          But when submission is like all things liberal, forced upon you to the point of death, as in “off with your head,” don’t you think that goes a bit too far?” That like most other religions is not acceptance by personal choice. Islam is a movement dominated by political conquest and violence.

          https://oneway2day.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/foolish-infidels.jpg

    • this attitude is exactly why Germany is finished. If you won’t fight when you’re the majority you won’t fight when you’re the minority. It’s not those immigrants who come to Europe decades ago that are the problem Karl, it’s their children. As for reading a mainstream Euro newspaper, didn’t you guys come up with the term lugenpresse? Was it because the mainstream media is so reliably honest?

      • @ Ken – To your comment on children, fair point. There is a strong history in all civilizations of second or third generation immigrants (or even native) going 180° to their forefathers belief systems. The American “hippie” of the 1960’s is a perfect example that you can relate to there in the US.

        To our current problem, you have to put things in perspective. Unlike Americans who have had over 200-years of black racism which every white American understands. Germans, on the other hand, have not had problems with Muslim Turks, or other middle easterners, who came here decades ago. Much of the current situation was not expected because we never encountered it before. We Germans freely traveled to Turkey and the middle east where they loved us for our attitudes towards the Jews. It’s why we struggled to understand why these new immigrants and refugees showed up with very different attitudes since everyone before them was very thankful for being here.

        I would recommend Spiegel online in English for the best of what is going here. It’s a weekly publication. If you want a really good daily newspaper, I recommend Süddeutsche Zeitung, unfortunately it is only in German.

        Lügenpresse “lying press” is similar to fake news in the US.

        http://www.spiegel.de/international/

        • Interesting point, that is rather curious the sudden attitude change. Looks like you’re getting a crash course in “hating Whitey”. Well good luck to you and your countrymen, especially if Erdogan makes good on his promise/threat to open the floodgates.

    • I just came across this and have cut and pasted this piece from the linked page. I agree with it’s premise that Islam is not primarily a religion.

      “Islam is another collectivist society in which the rights/needs of the individual are not important, but demands each citizen serve the collective in order to maintain it. The only practical difference between Islam and Communism is that Islam is a theocracy, in which all aspects of life and society are controlled by the ideology, dispensed upon the collective, by the collective, if a theocratic government is not available. This is why Islam has allied itself with the American Left, a curious alliance indeed. Again, the middle class is virtually none existent, while the ruling elite prosper.”

      https://definingthenarrative.com/2017/02/24/the-revolution-has-begun/

      • @ LetsPlay – From what I understand of cults, Islam is exactly that. I fully agree.

        • You miss my main point which is “why or how has the world bought into the lie that Islam is a ‘religion’?” TPTB have assisted the Muslim horde in their propaganda efforts. They are allied with the Left and always have been. And they have learned from past failures. I am only pointing out that they have come into our countries, our lands, posing as wolves dressed as sheep. And the left does not want anyone checking to make sure, during immigration, that they are truly sheep.

          • Islam has gained a foothold in third world countries because they are simply, and often literally, out gunned. In first world countries ruled by civil law, Islam – as with all religions is kept in check. The advantage for us is we are protected as a Republic which is ruled by laws based on Constitutions rather than theology. Clearly constitutions have their influence by Jedeo-Christian laws, but ultimately we do not live, nor are we governed by a theocracy. In that sense, Islam, despite it’s rhetoric, cannot gain a similar foothold unless we dismantle our fundamental legal establishments.

    • well i would study up on the koran if i were you…something tells me it is going to be a big part of your life, soon.

  6. I’m in France watching the fun, so I’ll give the rundown, as the slate of candidates was finalized this last weekend.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/03/19/lection-presidentielle-2017-retrouvez-tous-les-sondages-grace_a_21902832/

    Francis Fillon (beat out Sarkozy and Alain Juppé) to lead Les Republicans, the French center-right [pro-business]. He’s dogged by the scandal of paying his wife a salary without her actually doing any work (public funds over some 8 years of about 500-800k). He was getting around 20% but slowly falling.

    Bernard Hamon is the PS candidate (center left). If Macron hadn’t split the vote, it’s hard to say what his support would be, as the current PS President Hollande is widely seen as a failure. This guy is out to lunch: his to-do list includes a minimum salary for everyone regardless of whether you are working or not, and the creation of a Humanitarian Visa. He’s getting around 12%

    Emmanuel Macron was for a time the Finance Minister under Hollande until the elections came around and Hollande (President) was polling so badly (like, less than 10%), that Macron seized the opportunity to create a new Left Party calling itself “En Marche”. He’s split the PS (Partie Socialiste), which was the old center-left. He’s interesting because he was a former investment banker turned socialist, and only 39 years old. He is polling at 25%, as he picks up votes from both the Republicans and the Socialists.

    Odd man out is Mélenchon who has been around for years but finally running his own party called FI (France Insoumise – means something like France in Revolt). He combines being pro-immigrant, although I didn’t really see anything about being pro-immigration in his program, with an exit from the EU and from Nato, as well as writing a new Constitution to decentralize France somewhat (new Constitutions happen in France). He’s polling at around 12% as well.

    Finally, there is Marine Le Pen, leading the Front National, the extreme-right. Her biggest items are an EU exit and a Schengen exit, and a hardline immigration stance (10,000 visas max, ending naturalization of long-term illegals, ending some dual-nationalites). The FN polls at around 25% as well.

    Everyone respectable in France (who all detest and fear the FN) believes that this time will be like the last time, when Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the second round in 2002. Jaques Chirac, the [poorly viewed] incumbent, got 19% to Le Pen’s 17% and the socialist candidate’s 16%. France was horrified, so there was a record turnout and Le Pen got crushed in the second round, 82% to 18%.

    Current projections show that the second round will probably be Macron at 60% and Le Pen at 40%.

    • My sense is Europe will go through a few more spins of the wheel like this. The “extreme far right extremists” will hover just on the edge of respectability, in terms of vote getting. Enough to put a scare into the main parties, but not enough to be a real threat or win an election. Meanwhile, the not so quiet demographic replacement will stagger on until it reaches an inflection point. Either the numbers get so big that the old stock are afraid to do anything about it or their numbers get so big that the old stock is afraid to *not* do something about it.

      Getting good data on the demographics is increasingly difficult. The Sailer piece is a good example. The governments of Europe lie about the numbers or simply don’t report them. For example, they will wave around surveys that say only 6% of Holland is Muslim. Well, sure, 6% go to mosque. That does not mean 6% of the population is Arab. Then you have the SSA numbers. When you get into fertility numbers, the data gets even more murky.

      The issue to consider is why has the ruling class set off on this course? Inviting these troubles into Europe is unnecessary. How likely is it that people who invented this crisis will be quick to address it?

      • The Dutch electoral system is very highly proportional. Getting 20%+ counts as a win. PVV were never going to lead the government. The big winners were the Green/Left.

        Doubtful that Le Pen can win the 2nd round. But not impossible. And I think that is good. The FN does seem to have puller some traditional Catholic reactionaries – sort of people who still believe that Dreyfus was a Prussian spy – behind anyone who said “de-Gaulle. But despite Marine’s attempts to modernise I don’t think enough time has passed for them to have lost their knuckle-dragging boot-image which puts off a lot of peeps in the voting booth. Plus have you seen the FN’s economic policies?

        Italy is most interesting. I think 5 Star might win there, and that’s your closest comparison to Trump.

      • Good data is tough. Here in the US it is quoted that there are fewer incarcerated illegal immigrants, by % of population, than citizens. But how much of that is due to people looking the other way at illegal criminality, rather than prosecuting, or deportation of illegal criminals instead of incarceration? Take out the black citizen incarceration, and what does the ratio look like? Take out incarceration for non-violent drug busts, on all sides, and what does the data look like?

        We have absolutely no idea what the number of resident illegals in our country might be. 6 million? 12 million? 30 million? There are many vested interests that have less than zero interest in knowing the real number, and quite a few that have a vested interest in wildly understating the number.

        • Dutch, with regard to “Here in the US it is quoted that there are fewer incarcerated illegal immigrants, by % of population, than citizens”, whatever you may think of Ann Coulter, she actually looked into this very claim:

          “I looked up some of these alleged studies this weekend. They’re all hidden behind ridiculous Internet paywalls. I was often only the sixth person to read them.

          “It turns out that neither Piquero nor Bersani compared immigrant crime to ‘the overall population’ — as the British Guardian claimed in an article purporting to prove Donald Trump wrong. Rather, they compare immigrants’ crime rate to the crime rate of America’s criminals.

          “Thus, for example, once you get past the paywall, you will find that Piquero and Bersani’s joint study, ‘Comparing Patterns and Predictors of Immigrant Offending Among a Sample of Adjudicated Youth,’ used as its base group ‘adolescents who were found guilty of a serious offense.’

          “THAT’S NOT A REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF AMERICANS! It’s a representative sample of convicted criminals.”

          http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2015-07-15.html

      • “The issue to consider is why has the ruling class set off on this course? Inviting these troubles into Europe is unnecessary. How likely is it that people who invented this crisis will be quick to address it?”

        The elites of these nations seem to have reached the conclusion that they don’t care who peoples the nation that they run as long as they are still the one’s who are running it.

        And from a short term elite perspective it makes sense – the barbarians are barbarians and thus beneath notice or concern. The same for the poor who will always remain with us. But the real threat to the elite is the people in the middle who are willing and able to try and make the jump into the elite themselves. The invaders and their children aren’t going to be competing for position and prestige with the elite; its the average middle class citizen who would be doing that. And what better way to knock that threat out than a little anarcho-tyranny? In the long term though its crazy, slow suicide; the elite look at the barbarians with contempt if they consider them at all but the barbarians look at the elite with hunger.

        This is a cynical view to have but unless we want to consider that the elites have simply gone mad (or adopted a religion that makes them act mad) then it at least makes some sense.

        • Agree, Brooklyn. Also, I notice that the formerly most desirable places for workers to live in the world, the U.S. and Europe, have been considerably coursened by flooding of immigrants, in the U.S. floods of Hispanics in particular over the course of many decades and in Europe, floods of Muslims especially in the last few years. The successful, beautiful and prosperous societies built by — yes — white European men are being weakened through decades of propaganda. It would appear the repeated ideas about compassion and human rights rather than law and economics have convinced many white Europeans in Europe and U.S. that it is right and good to give away our carefully constructed societies, traditions, economic livelihoods and our very own futures to immigrants from different, often incompatible, cultures. If I were a black African Muslim and heard I could go live in beautiful Italy, France or Germany, enjoy their (formerly) unparalleled quality of life, education, people, culture and be provided housing and money to live on, I’d go in a heartbeat.

          All of this propaganda must be unlearned, which will take some time. Here in America, I’m surrounded by supposedly educated people clammering to allow Hispanic peasants and backward Muslims to remain here or keep on coming in even as their presence has caused low wages (not just in low-skill labor, but in many industries), scarce jobs, higher rent, lower national literacy, loss of tradition and culture. I’m about 50 years old and because of the immigrants, jobs exported through terrible trade agreements, and automation will never be able to retire. Just keep on working hard at jobs that pay less than they should forever, barely getting by. This is why so many in my generation are dying of drug or alcohol abuse or other forms of suicide. Our leaders talk of extending work years, but there are fewer and fewer jobs. And not many interested in hiring people over 40. It’s inescapable to me that this model is entirely about universal cheap labor. If things don’t change, there will be nowhere to go on the planet to live well, unless you’re super-rich or one of the courtiers serving them.

  7. Define Lost?
    When you get down to it, not much different for us dirt people in America and Draining The Swamp.
    Us dirt people pulled the chain on the crapper last 9-8-16 on turd so big it is stuck in the bowl refusing to go down, it is spinning around leaving nasty marks.
    It either happens or the deep state doubles down like JFK-ing Trump.
    Then the options look like this:
    TINVOWOOT,
    TNWAVOWOOT,
    WAGHTSOWOOT,
    (the is no voting our way out of this)
    (there never was any voting our way out of this)
    (we are gonna have to shoot our way out of this)

    What would really be lost?
    Agenda 21? Cultural marxism? Statist Hegemony? Oligarch’s Tyranny?
    Lost for those in power?
    I’d think if the above, it would be a blessing to the dirt people of Europe.
    May order it done, Brexit will tell the tale I think.

  8. What happens when the extremist sort of new arrivals show up in a neighborhood? A lot of people that have lived there a long time move out. Think of Europe as a neighborhood, on a grand scale. But the people are not moving out, they are laying low and fading away.

  9. Instapundit linked to a thought that Trump played the Groucho Marx role and Merkel played Margaret Dumont. As good of an explanation as any, IMO.

    • Love those movies! Duck Soup and Night at the Opera!! I know there are others. Not just Groucho, but Harpo and Zeppo, too. I’m forgetting one, I know. Always remember Groucho’s smart-ass remark:”Any club that would have me, I don’t want to belong to,” So true!! What’s the matter with people? Freedom of Association, right? Groucho got the joke. People of all races/religions etc. should form their own associations. Not a problem.

  10. Is Europe lost? If we are talking about the European project, the utopian United Europe then its on its deathbed. To be honest, without something to counterweight it like the Soviet Union in particular or the Cold War in general, it wasn’t likely to have much chance to exist at all except maybe in the minds of their bored, decadent elites.

    Europe seems to be going back to what it was before the age of discovery put the world out in front of it as a goal to pursue. I don’t disagree that demographics are important but there is the matter of getting from here to there so to speak. Germans for instance aren’t just going to vanish because they have a low birthrate; there will be fewer of them and more of them will be older but that is not an insurmountable obstacle to remaining who they are. The problem for the current rulers of Germany is not that in a hundred years there won’t be any Germans but that there won’t be a Germany.

    I’m pessimistic that the demographics of Europe can be radically changed or reverse to what they were even as late as 1997. Thats not to say nothing can be done but that anything that is done will never be to a scale that will fix the issue. Whatever conflicts break out on the continent in the next 25 years will not be of the scale needed to reorganize anything. The last time took a two world wars, a Holocaust and the Red Army marching across half the continent to a fifty year occupation. Its more likely that borders will get redrawn as the situation grows more unstable; those no-go zones will eventually turn into fiefdoms or dukedoms. Natives will retrench elsewhere. In some areas the natives will assimilate to the invaders and form something new. Instead of expulsions we may be looking at a decline into some sort of Holy Roman Empire situation.

  11. Current immigration and differential birth rates within Europe are one problem. The big future crisis will come from the fast growing population of Africa and the fact that economic and political conditions there will continue to be very bad,

    Muslims schmuslims. Wait until the wretched refuse of sub-Saharan Africa starts washing up on Europe’s Mediterranean shore.

    • @ Lorenzo – the last time there was a mass migration which decimated the indigenous population was in the US as Europeans displaced native Americans from New York to California. In that case then yes, numbers matter and the natives never stood a chance. Whether or not the entire African continent can mobilize and physically move north into Europe is another question. Not impossible I grant you.

  12. There is a lot of pent up anger and frustration amongst the dirt people on both sides of the “pond”. One of the key factors is that for the “average” dirt person the socioeconomic consequence of standing up to this is too high. They end up unemployed , lose their family, imprisoned, etc. Once the eocnomic bubbles burst on both sides all bets are off. Once the socioeconomic consequence of acting out is less then the threat as seen by the dirt people, action will take place.

  13. For several years, I’ve assumed that the Left and Islam have some kind of Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. It isn’t formal obviously as the Islamic side is not that well organized. But it is a mutual gains agreement for both. The Globalist Left thinks they can use the Muslims to displace their pesky domestic peasants who aren’t entirely bought into international socialism.

    The Muslims obviously get a major toehold into land their ancestors tried and failed to conquer for a millennium,

    Once the yokels are completely outnumbered and rendered harmless, they’ll obviously turn on each other. That promises to be interesting.

    • read up on how that worked out in iran. let me give you a hint, Iran isn’t leftist and doesn’t have many leftists (left alive).

      • You miss the point – they have agreed to both attack us before going to war with each other.

  14. And one more time about Europe. Been there, seen it. Don’t care about their future.

    • The problem is not that they are failing. The problem is that the people of Europe are mostly acquiescent to their failure.

      • the problem is “their” problem, not “my” problem; i.e. not my problem

      • Dutch,
        But so are Americans. Look at our country. Off the rails crazy and so many Americans don’t care, aren’t tuned in and have zero curiosity! Open borders with US citizens hollering for peasants and terrorists to be allowed in, schools indoctrinating our young people with insane and wrong ideas who never really grow up, aren’t really educated and don’t know how the world works or how to work, mainstream concern and propaganda about tranny rights and bathrooms while our government’s foreign policy has become Regime Change, a nice term for illegal coups *that no one in the US talks about.* Coups which ruin the lives of millions, cause hundreds of thousands of deaths and lead to even more immigration problems. People I know in the U.S. think we could never have a national crisis or civil war here though, to me, all signs are leading to just that. Maybe we’ve gone so long without having such events here that we think it can’t happen. Making it inevitable, I fear. Places like Russia and Europe and Middle East have had all kinds of terrible things go down relatively recently so they may be better at spotting warning signs and prevent more calamities.

    • The globalist brainwashing has worked, you no longer care about your history and your people. Unless…you’re asian or black or something.

  15. Here is the one question to answer: is a French style revolution (if you know what i mean, and i think that you do) a prerequisite for regaining America?

    • Inevitable if the political institutions are not allowed to operate as they were designed. If the politics is allowed the dispersion of power and the give-and-take originally built into it, we will be fine. The Utopians see these things as bugs, not features, however. Much of Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals is recommendations on how to jam up and destroy the ordinary functioning of our system. Soros subscribes to such things, too. When the system is too far gone to rescue by ordinary means, then 1789 France walks into the room. Provocative question.

      • This article is as good a summary as you will find on the legal philosophy of Obama, the Left and the courts now fighting Trump at every turn. In summary,

        “Obama in his interview disparages the Constitution as merely “a charter of negative liberties. It says what the states can’t do to you. Says what the federal government can’t do to you but doesn’t say what the federal government or state government must do on your behalf.” He believes—and he’s right—that changing this is the way to bring about “redistributive change.”

        The rest of the article is at

        https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2008/11/03/barack-obamas-poor-understanding-of-the-constitution

  16. Europe is one giant welfare state where everyone has a small guaranteed life, and will remain that way until the Muslims take over. Then it will be a theocracy similar to Iran (in fact most Muslim countries) in which everyone has a small guaranteed life except non-Muslims, who will be slowly killed off.

    • And the people not yet on board will be “asked” to join the party in power, in order to keep the small guaranteed lives they have. Wink-wink-nudge-nudge. Wait, hasn’t this happened in Europe before?

  17. Having lived through something similar in my home town years ago it seems Europe is making the same mistakes we made back in the late sixties and early seventies.

    The Invaders marched up the subway line taking over one neighborhood after another. The sudden spike in crime , drugs and violence produced what we now call “white flight”.

    A funny thing happened though in recent years. Property values began to rise around the metro area. Yuppies forced the old Invaders out and are now shipped off to old, dead mill towns in the western part of the state.

    Massive amounts of welfare money prop up an artificial economy. Nail salons , fast food joints and tattoo parlors line the streets of downtown.

    The apologists and politicians will always continue to fleece the middle class to keep these hellholes afloat.

    Perhaps a major financial collapse will dry up all the easy money ? I’m convinced if we stop providing free housing, free food and free medical the Vermin will self eradicate in time.

    This is my wish for the USA and Europe as well.

    • @ Sirlancelot – We are experiencing the very same thing here with regards to White Flight. Many sections of major cities are without whites and in many smaller towns where white have left, foreigners have moved in. How long this will continue is anyone’s guess. Between the inability to find work and the withdrawal of social services (which have already been implemented) we will see more leave Europe and return home as many already have. This is especially true when they find out living on 100-Euros in Köln is very different from what 100-Euros would bring them in Aleppo.

  18. There is an alternative reality.

    Europe realises the danger, men and women patch up their differences, join forces – literally and start breeding again.

    • Its not a breeding issue. Its a borders issue. Without immigration Europe would be fine until the population declines enough to end the bottleneck

      Germany is around the size of Oregon and has around 80 million people. How much is enough ?

      France is roughly the size of Texas and has 3x its population. Granted it has more arable land but its still probably 33% over capacity and note parts of even Texas are crowded

      I want more Men and Women of the West and would like us to get back to our peak (25% of the human race) and have homogeneous lands of our own but our living areas are limited and as such, our numbers are also.

      The only other suitable option would be for the US and maybe some other Anglo-Sphere countries to clean house and for Europe to have enough population boom for another diaspora. Otherwise we are near or at our limits.

      However in order for this to happen we will have to have well remunerated work for men of all skill levels . Our current technology seems hell bent on replacing everyone with kiosks, robots, Amazon and the like leaving us with a bloated welfare and Keynsian state, make work and a stunted private sector.

      Until we figure out some solution to that, families will remain small and the best we can do is hold our lines.

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