This was a popular item recently. It is a post about statistics, but the post got a lot of replies, because people think America is headed toward a civil war. Perhaps people with an interest in statistical methods worry about civil wars, in addition to methodological wars. It could also be that people fond of math know that society is fragile and it would not take much to topple it over. The distance between us and Somalia is not a big as we like to pretend.
Anyway, it is a good brain teaser. What would a civil war be like? The country is a vastly different place than the last time. The North is still richer than the south, but there is a Midwest, Southwest, West and Northwest now. More important, nothing is made in the Northeast anymore, other than trouble. The North is also the oldest part of the country, lacking a robust male population. By the standards of the last civil war, the North would be at a demographic, cultural and material disadvantage.
But that was then and this is now. Civil wars tend to be territorial and the regionalism of America is not what it once was. Lots of people from New England have moved south to the Carolinas, for example. Florida is full New Yorkers and is the retirement home to much of the Northeast. Northern Virginia is a region full of strangers, brought together by high paying government work. In event of war, people could move back to their home turf, but that seems unlikely.
There is also the fact that civil wars are almost always between the elites. The people are dragged into it by the warring factions at the top. In modern America, the elites have never been more unified. In fact, they are so united we now have one political party, the Uni-Party. The reason that you cannot tell the difference between the political opinions of Jonah Goldberg and Ezra Klein is that ideologically they are the same guy, with the same paymasters.
If there was to be a civil war in America, it would first have to start as a revolt and gain enough steam to be a genuine threat to the status quo. If a revolt grew into a serious threat to the interests of the ruling classes, then you might see some elements decide to throw in with the rebels. In all likelihood, it would be the younger, lower level members of the elites, looking for an opportunity to leapfrog their superiors. Alternatively, the revolt could quickly grow an elite of its own.
Of course, there is the racial angle. It is funny in a way, but the two groups convinced of the coming race war are blacks and white nationalists. The trouble with this idea is the time for a race war was sixty years ago. There were plenty of young black males thinking they had nothing to lose and plenty of young white males thinking they had everything to lose, Today, the only people thinking race war are mentally unstable black guys and white nationalists.
There is also the technological issue. The lesson of the last century is that conventional warfare was no longer a good way for settling disputes. Putting aside nukes, conventional weapons had simply become too lethal and too destructive. Prior to the Great War, winning meant gaining useful territory. Modern warfare means destroyed cities and fractured economies for both sides. In a civil war, modern arms would mean a terrible bloodbath for both sides.
New Englanders would love to re-enact Sherman’s march to the sea, but they would end up killing more allies than enemies. The economic cost to the North would be devastating. The degree of integration in a modern society would work against the instinct to destroy the other guy’s stuff. Throw in the regionalism issue above and conventional warfare with set-piece battles and troop formations is not going to serve the interests of anyone in the next American civil war.
There is also another problem. The US military is about 1.3 million people, but about 80% are in administrative and support roles. We have more people in uniform pushing buttons at a keyboard than carrying a pack in the field. Of that fighting force, about two-thirds are deployed at any one time. It is not an accident that our political class is not a fan of keeping large numbers of combat ready troops on US soil. In a civil war, the US military would probably disintegrate quickly.
Now, America has been waging non-lethal war on the world for a long time in the form of financial war and now information war. Economic sanctions are a form of warfare intended to create unrest in the target society. North Korea’s quest for nukes is the economic war we have been waging against them. The Bush people took steps to cut them off from the banking system and thus starve the regime of hard currency. That has made the elites of the regime much poorer and weaker as a result.
In a civil war, the tools of finance would come to bear. Assuming the civil war began as a revolt, the ruling class would first attempt to squeeze the rebels financially, by cutting them off from the financial system, making it hard to raise money. This means shutting down their PayPal accounts. Credit card processors would be pressured to discontinue service. When that failed, banks would be forced to close accounts and the seize assets of troublemakers.
This would also discourage members of the elite from getting any ideas about supporting the rebels against the senior elements of the elite. This would be augmented by the use of information war to undermine the moral authority of the rebels, thus starving them of ability to gain popular support. Humans are social animals and they instinctively seek to distance themselves from the taboo. That would mean using mass media organs to evangelize against the rebels.
If all of this sounds familiar, it should. America, and the West, is teetering on the verge of civil war, but a modern, technological civil war. On the one side is the globalist elite, who have purged their ranks of anyone skeptical of the project. The brewing revolt is mostly the people willing to question the prevailing orthodoxy. The panic we saw last summer by the tech giants was motivated by a fear that the internet revolt was becoming a revolt in the streets.
Yeah we are one great united racial entity. I’d like to see the author walk through Harlem at 2am on a Saturday. He could preach racial unity before they carted him off to the morgue.
You failed to mention the effects of Islam within this civil war. They have a very large stake in the battle. They want shariah law in America and the ability to dominate us. Any talk of civil war without quantifying the Islamic impact is seriously flawed.
Too many subjunctives (this would… that would… )
Have talked with both sides ( conservative and liberal ) . Both seem to think there is some sort of conflict in the offing.
Yet most believe they will only be spectators while the radical elements of either side fight it out.
Personally don’t see anything happening . Europe’s invasion of third world savages continues unabated and the USA is a completely different country than the one I grew up in.
Perhaps a economic collapse or a nuke lobbed at us from North Korea might trigger in Civil War ?
Americans will have to feel a lot more pain before they start shooting at each other.
>Perhaps a economic collapse or a nuke lobbed at us from North >Korea might trigger in Civil War ?
we should be so lucky….
“Hispanics have little interest in racial politics.” ??? There are the mentally unstable La Raza and reconquistas.
In my experience, the typical Latino wants to get along and make good (but is not afraid to leverage the system to his advantage, when open borders are offered). There is a strong religious (usually Catholic), family, and cultural milieu in which they live. The “La Raza” types are outliers, though the Latino college students are the ones who get steeped in the stuff at school. The Blacks, however, have largely had any religious, family, and cultural ties stripped away, so a much greater proportion of them go feral.
“Hispanics have little interest in racial politics.” Is this a serious statement? La Raza? The Congressional Hispanic Caucus?
Wow, this is really terrible. Useless “damn Yankee” drivel with a ton of GenX ignorance. Yankees, like me, don’t even think in terms of North vs South. Why concern yourself with a long defeated/subjugated enemy?
Almost all warfare is 4th generation now. Technology makes things particularly complex because factions are no longer purely geographic. Drones and “kill-bots” will make a civil war less about raw numbers and terrain and more about data and how it’s used. I wouldn’t be a proud Yankee if I didn’t point out that data is what we make now.
Mexicans are about as racist as they come. About all they care about is their race, as a matter of fact.
Factions are definitely not geographically restricted now.
The epic 4Chan trolling of the Shia LaBeouf “He will not divide us” Trump protest – proves that.
It was pulled off internationally – with spectacular results.
On Civil War – In Z’s post and in the now 65 replies I see no mention of “the slam”, aka islam, and what part it so very definitely wants to play in American turmoil and destruction, whether that be achieved via the Ideological Subversion route (Yuri Bezmenov, Sun Tzu) or “otherwise”.
In late 2015 Matthew Bracken wrote an 18 page essay entitled, “Tet, Take two: Islam’s 2016 European Offensive.” While Bracken’s prediction for European Civil War in summer 2016 did not occur, I would caution, as does Bracken, that while he might have been premature in his prediction, the makings of civil conflict in Europe are still there, and if anything it has increased as the islamification of their countries continues – unabated and actually aided by the various screwballs who head the nations (Merkel, Lofven, Macron, etc) as well as the EU globalist controlled conglomerate of tyrants.
At the very beginning of his essay Bracken states, “Three great social forces are now set in motion.” Those three social forces are, (1) Islam, (2) International socialism (aka, New World Order, or Globalism, or multiculturalism, etc), and (3) Nationalism. In the next paragraph he continues, “Two of these great social forces are currently allied in a de facto coalition against the third. They have forged an unwritten agreement to jointly murder the weakest of the three forces while it is in their combined power to do so.”
From January 1989 to January 2017, that’s 28 years, a Globalist has resided at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. During the last eight of those 28 years not only was the occupant a Globalist, he was an Indonesian muslim, a quantitative step further removed from any semblance of national affiliation to the United States.
We, the United States and the foundation it was built on, have been granted a reprieve of sorts. The longer it lasts, the better, in my nationalistic point of view. So, if it is to come, what does the face of modern civil war, Civil War II, in the United States look like? I don’t know exactly but I believe it will look much like the next globalist who occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Oh, almost forgot, recommend reading the entire Bracken essay. Good stuff.
I’ve read Bracken’s stuff for years. The Tet Take Two was interesting – but ultimately failed to happen anywhere near what he predicted.
As far as the ” forged an unwritten agreement to murder the weakest of the three * while it’s within their power to do so* “…… I would say that Nationalism is gaining – and the other two are declining. Much of international Islamic terrorism – has been fed by Wahabism – which was funded by the Saudis. Something just happened in Saudi – I don’t know if Trump had some back door talks and told them to clean up their shit or face consequences …… but it’s starting to look like Wahabism might be in decline too. The US becoming energy independent gives us the ability to tell a lot of people to screw off. Maybe that’s what happened here – the Saudis lost their big “trump” card – and were told to shape up or face consequences.
I think Trump being from NYC means something. You don’t live in an area – and not know what is going on. You don’t exist at the level Trump has existed at for so long – and not have access to information that the rest of us can only speculate about. Maybe I’m engaging in wishful thinking – but something has changed drastically over the last year or two – and I don’t see Islamic terrorism as being as ascendent as it once was.
I think one indicator people really need to pay attention to over the next 3-7 years – is how many incidents of Islamic terrorism there are HERE, as well as how many incidents of mass shooting there are. Lots of conspiracy level stuff in right wing blogs and sites talk about the government being behind these types of events in some form or fashion. Comparing the rate of these two things during the Obama time in office vs the Trump time in office would be a very nice little data point to use to see if this kind of thing is TRULY random – or being used for political effect.
Carlsdad – Islam never retreats and has never signed an instrument of unconditional surrender – and it never will. It goes dormant from time to time, and some of those times are lengthy, but it never has and never will “give up the game” of converting or forcing (at knife point when necessary) all those in “Dar al Harb” to acknowledge that a slave owning child rapist was and is the “prophet” of a god that gives those who die for him 72 virgins to sate their ever erect penis. (While that last pentimento may “offend”, it also reflects with one hundred percent accuracy the contents of their religion’s holy scriptures.)
We may very well see a decrease in overt acts of jihad/terrorism but that doesn’t mean anything as the “stealth jihad” will continue. Back in February of 2016 Stephen Coughlin (Unconstrained Analytics) produced a “strategic overview” on this. We ignore his warnings and those from many other scholars to the detriment of not only the United States but the whole of Western Civilization.
As far as the “other scholars” that I alluded to, one, David Wood, has produced many informative You Tube videos on islam. On November 9, 2017 he posted one entitled, “All Mass Violence Is Now islamic Terrorism”. I call it the, “This cat is a dog” You Tube – good stuff.
Finally, while Bracken’s prediction for Europe 2016 did not happen, here, now, before Europe is the summer of 2018, and after that 2019, etc. The makings of civil conflict are still very much present in Europe.
Anyone who has a wet dream of a civil war, has definitely not seen one, been in one, yet alone see one on TV. Don’t even wish for this. There is no parallel or “game-playing” that can be done on this. None of you know how something like this will play out. Be careful what you wish for.
I will venture to predict this much – Even if there is something that may resemble a civil war, the various factions and constantly evolving alliances will be phenomenal. The permutations are astronomical. You may thank our “diversity” for this and what out country has devolved into. It will be nothing like anyone could ever imagine. This will be a whole new type of warfare.
But I will say this much: It falls perfectly in someone else’s game plan that cuts across any ethnic, political, racial, social, religious, football team affiliation. Once you figure out the who (the how is evident, the why is a given the when not so much – but it’s close) the where will be…..everywhere and not just here in the US and America (yeah….there’s a difference).
The ones who have a better chance of surviving are the poor – they already have nothing left to lose.
Figure this shit out for yourselves. I’m not going to spoon feed you. I’ve given you enough to chew on.
I think civil war is unlikely, and the better term of art perhaps is “divorce”. I think what we’re actually seeing is the two basic ideological camps just basically looking at each other across the internet, and shouting, “F**K YOU, BUDDY!”
Where you see the divorce – or the civil war, they’re not all that different really – play out is things like the recent tax bill and Judge Moore. That tax bill got passed for two basic reasons:
1) The failure to fully repeal Obamacare made 2) possible
2) Roy Moore, who won a contested primary against an establishment GOP candidate
The tax bill was pure self-preservation. That was the establishment looking across the political landscape at the pitchfork/burn-it-all-down crowd, and realizing that the pitchfork/burn-it-all-down crowd might not be able to seat a Senator, but they sure as hell could create a lot of misery and pain. Like an ugly divorce…you might not get your way, but you can make it absolute agony for your ex, the kids, extended family, etc.
The basic reality is that America has moved beyond the idea of there being a shooting war amongst its citizens. Yeah, maybe the few black or white nationalists might trade a few rounds of gunfire, but not anything on any significant level. Perhaps terrorism, I think if there’s going to be any shooting, it’s going to be domestic terrorism, political assassinations, things of that sort. Again, not a civil war, but a messy divorce.
As Liberal as CA is, they cannot muster the sack to actually try to secede from the union. Then, those that want it have the very silly idea that the “State of California” as it exists on the map today will be the “Nation of California” tomorrow.
Uh, no. They’re gonna secede, and keep about 300 miles of coastline a few miles wide. All the water, farmland, ski resorts, lumber, mining, etc? That’s staying in the USA. And their ain’t a damn thing they can do about it.
So, no civil war. Just more divorce decrees.
If you listen to how people talk to each other today, they sound like a couple going through a brutal divorce, not a civil war. What happens at the end of an ugly divorce? The division of assets, an agreement to compel both sides to some sort of settlement where one side winds up paying the other off, and they go about their business as individuals.
Except the Great American Divorce means you gotta live with your ex and keep paying her money.
If you want to see war just look at the RFRA dispute in Indiana a couple of years ago – a totally economic action where the oligarchs were able to impose their will despite having little connection with the state. That’s how they plan to rule in this country.
Some type of catalyst needs to happen first, before we see CW2. The most likely is a financial meltdown. The crisis could start in the US or elsewhere but the flames will spread globally. Other possibilities are war (pick a hotspot) or natural disaster. Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck as it is. Government “solutions” will be controversial and require more pain. I see fierce opposing factions lining up on how to deal with the crisis. At first, the opposing factions will disagree about the crisis. But later they will shed that basis and devolve into the Red/Blue or Rural/Urban struggle. It could involve fighting, but more likely we’ll see a regional breakup (with minimal fighting).
I’m not sure financial meltdown is the most probable catalyst to bring about civil war. In 1860 the catalyst was the election of a President that half the country couldn’t stomach.
The last two Presidents already fit that bill.
I have opinions and ideas on many subjects, and not one on how this will play out. If I were forced to bet twenty five cents on the way ahead, it would be that people will choose the weaker and more cowardly options available to them at each juncture of this dissolution, so whatever happens will take it’s time.
I also don’t know how it will play out. But I do know that once people become red-pilled, they don’t go back. The trick is how to get normies red-pilled faster than our overlords can import the third world and continue to assault whites and our traditional values. It’s a race. The problem for them, is if they accelerate the process too much, they risk waking up more normies and increasing the likelihood of conflict.
Here’s how it will go:
It’s obvious, even to the Donks: wherever they come to power, the pattern is always the same. Taxes, costs, crime and unemployment sky-rocket. Real estate values, earnings, and standards of living dive. This will only get worse, the nation’s neo-socialist states have burned through their own money – now they are going to have to pick the pockets of their neighbouring states and countrymen. The failed states will not accept responsibility for their conduct. They will say that they are ‘economically disadvantaged’ and the only FAIR thing to do would be transfer payments from ‘have’ states to the ‘have nots’.
Anyone that disagrees with that will be portrayed as un-American, selfish and greedy. Of course this won’t work on a state level, the productive states will merely enact firewalls around their finances to keep the looters out. The end run around will come from the Feds. Look for a future Obama or Clinton to legislate transfer payments at the federal level to ‘save’ poor unfortunate states like Mass. or California. This in turn will probably spawn the rise of a third party and possibly more – and regionalism will start to re-assert itself. People who left those lunatic asylum states because of the shake down will be furious at having it follow them. Talks of secession will begin in earnest and then all the other liberal birds will come home to roost too: “We need your guns, Mr. and Mrs. America! People with guns don’t understand how important our agenda is to the country!” “Cradel to grave welfare! We need to start indoctrinating your kids at a younger age! Don’t ask about retirement or social security – WE’LL take care of that for you!”
Then it’s rinse and repeat of the last civil war. The result will be a Balkanization of America and that may or may not be a good thing – it all depends on how far Leftie is allowed to run before he’s hung from a lamp post.
Uncontrolled Immigration, cramped cities, angry minorities, and poverty feed the Progressive voting machine. So the Progs support all four of those things. They are so wedded to their ideology that they are willing to burn down the culture to see it implemented. Everything flows from that.
Trump has thrown down the financial gauntlet with the SALT deduction limitations. The best defense is a good offense.
The lesson of CW 1 was that dissent from the party line (“Union forever”—on the North’s terms) was unacceptable. They will try the same thing again. Trump’s genius is to move the country we actually live in as far away as possible from the Prog’s version of it, so they are fighting more for a concept than the defense of an on-the-ground reality.
There is always a catalyst. You may be onto to something with SALT. Here in NY I can pop up Facebook and wade through 150 comment threads in purely LOCAL closed groups bewailing the impact of tax reform. The real impact on the blue state model is starting to dawn on people that were happily voting Democrats into office. Now, do I believe this will turn them in Republicans or that they will blame the Democrats that sat with their thumbs up their asses while it passed? Nope, they will re-double on their hatred of Trump and everything Republican. I expect the crazy to only intensify.
There is a common fear among the gun owning right wingers that the government is going to “take the guns”.
The problem here is THAT WOULD BE EXTREMELY HARD.
In order to make it really work – they’d have to do it nationwide all at once. Any small effort to start with – would merely harden the resistance in other places.
As was referred to in Zman’s post regarding how things played out in Ireland – things like civil wars and gun confiscation are not simple linear things. People make decisions , people change their minds – and their loyalties. People improvise – they adapt.
I live in MA. I am a gun owner. MA is one of the most restrictive states in the country for gun ownership. You need a license – and the licensing is tiered. There are also restrictions on which guns can be owned. MA has what they call an assault weapons ban – based on the original national ban from back in 94. Practically speaking that means you can’t have stuff like a folding stock on your AR. You also can’t have a flash hider, bayonet lug – etc. But you know what? My AR with no bayonet lug , no folding stock, and no flash hider – would shoot people dead just as well as a “free state” AR.
So for all practical purposes – what does the MA AWB accomplish? Nothing really IMHO. If you want to own an AR or AK – it is (or more accurately was) possible to do legally. Recently the state Attorney General – decided to change the law retroactively and said that everybody who has bought an AR in MA for the last few decades – was in violation of the law because all the previous AG’s mis-interpreted the law. This pissed off a bunch of people at first – and led to some real worrying about what might happen – and then nothing happened. The biggest practical effect is that gun shops will not sell AR pattern rifles or AK’s any more.
So people have converted over to buying M1A’s (M14 clones) , Mini-14 and Mini-30s, and stuff that escaped the notice of the AG like some of the newer HK stuff , and stuff like Tavors.
If people are buying M1As instead of ARs – I don’t see the big problem with the ban 7.62×51 shoots people deader than .223 anyway. So the ban just refocused people’s priorities a little and didn’t really accomplish any reduction in the gun flow out to the deplorables.
MA also has registration. You buy a gun – the state knows you have it. All of the MA gun owners I know get all freaky about this every once in a while. I see registration as a double edged sword. Yes – they KNOW you have bought a gun. They don’t know however – where it is. When they send out the demand for you to turn it in – and you DON’T – now they have a problem.
The bureaucracy KNOWS you bought – they will also know you didn’t turn it in. That’s a problem for a bureaucracy. I’s must be dotted and T’s must be crossed. What the hell are the gun grabbers going to do when they can’t meet their quota?
Alinksi works for the left and the right. Gun registration is a perfect governmental scheme to use to Alinsky their asses.
And we haven’t even gone into the profusion of things like small machine shops spread all over this country , 80% lowers, 3D printing – and the increasing spread of technologies like CNC that is filtering down into small home shops. Got a blueprint for an AR receiver? Post the G-code online and then some guy with a small CNC mill and a block of aluminum on the other side of the country is now going to be spitting out an AR receiver.
Go read the history of insurrections and civil wars. Weaponry inevitably gets either produced locally – or smuggling routes bring it in. Given how much weaponry already exists in the US (I’ve heard estimates that there is 350 million plus firearms in this country already) – and the profusion of machine tooling held in the hands of civilians – I’m not too worried about being able to get guns if some civil war situation goes hot.
Even here in MA – there’s a significant amount of firearms floating around. And there are some very hard core gun owners. They are probably far outnumbered by lefties who will bitch about gun ownership. But even there – there are cracks in the leftist anti-gun monolith.
What’s to stop y’all from building 80% lowers? If a state were that dishonest with me (as mine is becoming), I’d find ways to circumvent the law too. The problem is the state likes to throw the book at the Great White Defendant, if they can catch him. Suppose you have to use your AR or want to shoot it and they’ve banned them – how do you do get around the laws? You can practice in the woods, I guess, but If you have to kill somebody I suppose the state would try to make an example out of you. These are questions I’m wrestling with myself as I live in an increasingly totalitarian state.
I’m makign plans to move.
When AG Healey decided to change the law RETROACTIVELY – what she did was declare that law abiding citizens were retroactively criminals. It’s not easy to obey the laws regarding guns in MA. They’re often confusing and contradictory. Nevertheless – law abiding attempt to obey the law.
So along comes an AG who declares that all these people who expended all this effort are now criminals anyway. I know a lot of guys who were beside themselves – and frantically trying to find a way to “obey” the law. I was a little bit scared at first – then I realized that this was a situation where they’re just trying to get us to chase a ghost.
Fuck it. If they’re going to work overtime to make me into a criminal – then I’ll just embrace it. I don’t worry so much about obeying the law any more. I worry about getting caught not obeying the law. Those are two totally different mindsets. The idiots on the left have a problem – because once they start pissing people off badly enough – they start to embrace that mindset I have embraced. Then there is not much they can accomplish after that change takes place. They have a harder and harder time getting people to dance to their tune. As I saw somebody say in another post here – once people take the red pill – they don’t go back.
There is nothing to stop me from building up 80% lowers or buying kits and building those. I know dozens of people who have done it. When local gun clubs or web sites do 80% lower group buys – the total amount sold is in the 100’s.
Even then though – there’s still a significant amount of Fudds who seem to think it’s 1950 and fight this shit tooth and nail. They seem to be getting beaten down though over the last ten years or so. I have noticed a distinct change in the tone of local gun owners over the last ten years or so. Two terms of Obama has done wonders to radicalize gun owners in this country. MA and New England has not been immune to this change.
A few years back a local town tried to pass an assault weapons BAN. One of the selectman proposed the ban – a lot of people signed on – and it looked for a while like it might actually pass. Then people started fighting back. It showed up in the local newspaper, there were letters to the editor against it. Debate showed up on the local websites – lots of posts for it from generally ignorant people – and a local org actually got formed to fight it. Just to be clear – this was going to be a BAN – with confiscation.
The problem I saw was that people were generally ignorant of how this would go down. So I posted the following and sent letters to a few people just to try and make sure everybody knew what they were going to be dealing with. I didn’t even live in the town (I’m in the next town over). What I said was this:
If you ban “assault weapons” – you’re going to have a number of problems. First off – you’re going to have to search people’s homes. Some people will not comply. You won’t know who that will be – because there ARE unregistered firearms – I know this for a fact. So door to door searches will be REQUIRED to clear the town of assault weapons. I’m sure there are little old ladies in town who’s husbands brought stuff back from WW2 or Korea or even Vietnam – and that stuff is sitting up in the attic forgotten about. Door to door searches will be required. The next problem is licensing. Even if you confiscate – having the appropriate MA license will allow you to buy another one. Even if dealers in MA somehow will recognize the ban and refuse to sell to a Westford resident – NH dealers will sell to MA residents and won’t care much about your town ruling. So ALL licenses must be revoked. This means that women who want to defend themselves will not longer be able to get a license either. ALL licenses must be revoked. Next up is new people moving into town – all new residents will have to have their homes searched – and be informed by the police of the town ordinance. This will be overhead for the police – and probably require one or two officers full time to constantly enforce the ruling. More costs for the town. Next up is machinery. Even if you take my license away and confiscate my guns – I can still build another one. So some sort of ordinance will have to be implemented to ban the production of new firearms – with potentially the banning of all sorts of machinery like drill presses and milling machines and routers – all of which can be used to machine aluminum and build an assault weapon – hell , I know a guy who built an AK from a SHOVEL. In short – unless you’re willing to do all of these things – this ban attempt is a complete and utter joke and won’t be taken seriously by anybody who knows what is really going on. In other words – the exact people you would really want to remove firearms from. I suggest thinking this out a little bit better.
The hearing on this drew so many people they had to open the high school up for the town meeting to discuss it and had two gymnasiums full of people listening to the debate.
It went down to resounding defeat. IN MASSACHUSETTS.
Point here is – people approach this shit from a completely ignorant viewpoint – start laying out the ugly details – and they shit a brick and back away.
Outstanding post, as usual. In CA we are seeing the same behavior from an out-of-control state government. I talked to a former Marine who’s about 10 years younger than me who works as an overseas contractor. He said he no longer follows CA gun laws and shoots in a canyon where he and others have set up steal targets.
Building from 80% lowers is becoming common. The state has passed a law requiring you to stamp the 80% lower with a serial number and get permission from CA DOJ before you start working on it. I wonder how they plan on enforcing that? They can send cops to the gun range to check guns for serial numbers, but you can write a serial number on it and never get permission from DOJ. Gun owners would also talk and know when the cops are there. I can’t see the city cops cooperating with this.
They also passed a law requiring you to give your driver’s license like a pedophile when buying ammunition. This has left a very bitter taste in the mouths of most gun-owners -being treated the same as a pedophile. People have started reloading or buying ammo in Nevada.
This still leaves the problem of where to shoot and train. You can’t take your illegal AR to the range. I suppose national forests are an option. They let the drug cartels operate grow operations in them. I suppose they’re good for shooting. A lot of people just keep their ARs in a safe for the coming times.
All this has made law-abiding citizens very cynical of the law. 5-time felon illegal immigrants get only 3 years for shooting Americans out here, but there are mandatory minimum sentences for owning illegal ARs. Meanwhile, cartels own whatever weapons they want and the state government plays catch and release with hardened violent felons. Once the government convinces people that following the law is a sucker’s game, all bets are off. For this reason, Niccolo Machiavelli stated that the people should be allowed to keep their weapons.
I wonder why the Europeans gave up their rights to keep and bear arms so easily though. In talking to some people in the UK, it seems like they’ll all go jump off a cliff if their government tells them to and legitimately thought the gun confiscation was for their own good.
There won’t be a gun ban for a lot of reasons,
Instead they’ll try to do what California is trying and restrict ammo or if possible ban it outright
Thus far in California this hasn’t been a success, dealers in this state are supposed to have a special license but the State is either deliberately foot dragging or just inept or both
The net result has been a high degree of non compliance from dealers.
Gun law compliance is also very weak, as grotesque as it is we had a mass shooter a while back who built his AR from out of state parts and used out of state ammo and mags
It didn’t help the agenda so it got little press
but its simply no longer possible to restrict weapons
My personal preference would be to remove basically all the laws, unless you are in custody or in a few state building or on private property
or a minor, do as you like
This would deal away with mechanisms used to control firearms and while yes felons wqould have guns , so what?
If someone is that big a problem that they can never have arms , shoot them, hang them or lock them up
Can anyone here point us to civil war scenarios discussed on the Mainstream Left?
I’d love to know what the enemy is thinking.
Al Z, there was an academic a few years ago who declared “we (the progs) have won the culture war and it is time to start shutting down the right.”
It was typical entry-level Leninist stuff. Start taxing churches and right leaning organizations into oblivion (he wasn’t specific, but I’d guess Boy Scouts, civic organizations, etc). Tear down symbols of the old regime (check!). Disenfranchise bitter enders. He seemed to assume that no one would fight back.
I don’t venture into the Antifa fever swamps, but I’d guess that’s a good starting point. But I’d imagine that their plans were as well thought out as some of the Rube Goldbergesque tweets about “restoring” Hillary (Cabinet declares Trump unfit, Pence appoints Hillary VP, Senate confirms, Pence resigns, Hillary President!).
I imagine that Pence would commit suicide if he wasn’t killed in a plane crash.
I’ve noticed from my own reading of history that Millenarianism is a strong precipitant in civil wars. People were convinced that the “Little Ice Age” in the 17th Century meant the world was coming to an end, and I believe it helped prime the pump for the 30 Years War. There was a strong religious, eschatological cast to the nut job abolitionist John Brown’s raids that helped get the Civil War going (see Ben Wright’s “Apocalypse and the Millennium in the Civil War”). If I had to guess what was going to get us spilling each other’s blood this time, it would be that bearded fanatic Al Gore shouting from the quarterdeck of the SS Progressive about Global Warming. It gets them more unhinged than the gay wedding cake thing or Confederate flags. They’ve been talking for awhile about passing laws to make climate denial on a par with Holocaust Denial in Europe, where you can get thrown in the slammer for it.
“Race War” is stupid for the simple reason that people generally hate people like themselves rather than people who are alien to them (they’re distrustful of outsiders but that’s not the same as hate). Calvinists were perfectly happy to make alliances with Ottomans to stick it to the papists a few hundred years back. Germany did the same thing by allying with the “sick man of Europe” in the 20th century to kill Englishmen. White nationalists focus their sharpest rage on traitors (renegades as Amren calls them, and it looks like McCain won the Renegade of the Year award this year). Ditto for the Indian Wars, where various tribes made alliances with European nations to fight historical enemies.
Ah, but *tribal war* will get the viciousness going every time, just as you say.
So, when does a ‘race’ become a tribe (or vice versa) hereabouts. The Progs have been busy, busy, busy trying to make various local or imported minorities into actual ‘tribes’ or ‘nations’ and they are either too stupid to realize where this goes or viciously indifferent.
For most of human history the progression of political organization has been Family > Clan > Tribe. Tribes have been around nearly forever. Each constituent level can only hope to fight against foreign or domestic enemies at the same level with the cooperation of all its subgroups. E.g. its highly unlikely for any clan to defeat an enemy tribe. They need the help of the other clans in their tribe to survive attack. That’s why there’s tribes in the first place.
In more advanced ancient societies another layer was added on top of Tribe: Tribe > Nation/State. The Iroquois Nation of colonial times is an example. And in ‘civilizations’ Tribe/Nation > Empire. Empires then and now are multi-ethnic or multi-national in composition with one nation/ethnic group predominating, usually through conquest (e.g. The English in the UK; the Han in China, The Germans in Austria, etc.).
The easiest way to attack a multi-ethnic empire is to turn one nation within against another. The Progs of today seemingly know this and clearly seek to create the situation of a multi-ethnic empire type of polity of semi-hostile nations within our borders by importing potentially hostile constituent members (with themselves on top, of course). They also obviously plan to unite their newly created separate ‘nations’ against ‘Whites’, who are supposed to agree to their displacement in this new arrangement. Based on all human history, the obvious consequence is the unification of ‘Whites’. No ideology need be involved.
So, the Bad White vs. Good White scenario of Civil War I is quite possibly not in the cards, depending very much on events. I pray not.
I wonder if the country is really as divided as the elites want us to believe. Antifa seems awfully quiet. Who knows where George Soros is these days? It’s almost as if the puppet masters are being quietly rounded up…
False flag provocations are harder than ever to accomplish. The legacy media is broken, the average person is figuring things out, and the internet provides the truth if you know where to look for it.
The provocateurs see the weakest link as the internet and social media (note how Iran went right to internet shutdowns when things got frisky over there). That’s why they encouraged the “end of the world” scenario over net neutrality. Battlespace preparation.
I’ve been quietly speculating that Trump has brought something to bear against Soros and the Cloud… I just cannot figure out what that something might be.
Don’t forget that in Civil War I the Regular Army was sent to the frontiers. RA regiments only joined the Army of the Potomac for the last few months of the war when victory seemed assured. CW I was fought by militias and generaled by RA officers.
Swarm and drone technology might be decisive, but in my opinion, whoever controls the nuclear arsenal would have the most legitimate claim to being the government of the United States and would likely be recognized as such by most foreign powers (the EU would back blue, regardless).
Finally, I cannot see how any rural county (outside New England) could ally with blue or any large city go red. The phases I foresee would be secession -> phony war -> low intensity conflict in the suburbs -> total war/foreign intervention. There could be a political compromise or military surrender during any of those phases.
All that being said, I really, really don’t want to fight CW II. Given today’s realities, we would all be fighting one way or another.
You’re thinking in terms of old paradigms. A potential future conflict will likely be driven by a dichotomy between the shrinking productive element of society and a rapidly expanding parasitic counterpart. The former will mostly consist of fiercely self-reliant individualists and the latter will emerge as droves of hive-minded and dependence-addicted drones. Non-conformity will become a crime punishable by confiscation or indentured servitude, and rebellion against this form of enslavement will be the trigger.
The elites will push soft tyranny as far as possible at first, and then pit blue on green (e.g. LEO versus patriot) in order to decimate the reservoir of able-bodied males in society. This will pave the way for nationwide firearm confiscation and selective incarceration of dissidents. This path is an old formula of all depots because it works very well.
An old-style civil rebellion (such as our Revolutionary War) is not likely to succeed in the modern era (not enough doers left in our society); but there are alternatives that model as exceptionally effective.
I know a number of LEO and LEO associated (like prison guards). ALL of these guys I know – are what I would call “patriots” – and I think would have very serious reservations about siding with the government and the Free Shit Army – over armed productive citizenry.
The only deciding factor I see there – is that their livelihood depends on the government. So they’re stuck in a bit of a quandary. That might be some sort of deciding factor – but would be when IRA type tactics would come in very useful to swap people’s allegiances.
Much of what I read coming out of the militia types on the right – would seem to indicate that if LEO starts coming after productive citizenry – then productive citizenry would go right back after them. Lists have been made. LEOs are local. Unless they start transferring people around the country (in and of itself a reason why LEOs might not go along) – I don’t see local LEO on local patriot going down “nicely” – or in the favor of LEO over the longer term.
There’s more of “us” – than there is of “them” – and in general we are better armed. The conversations I’ve had with LEO types leads me to believe that they KNOW IT too. Just like how many soldiers get dis-enchanted with the system once they’ve been exposed to getting their asses shot at – and later finding out they were fighting for some bullshit cause – I see the same attitude amongst LEO that I talk to.
I am up in New England (MA to be exact) – and know people in MA – and NH. Perhaps there is some difference between LEO here and other areas of the country – because I don’t see the kind of shoot-downs coming out of New England in general , that I see happen in other areas of the country.
There are also divisions among the LEO community. I have talked with a guy on Boston SWAT. And he expressed no love whatsoever for the MA State Police. I seem to remember the term “morons” was used multiple
I think one of the main things to be thought about RE: civil war – is exactly how it would start. It’s unlikely to be an event that gets going nationwide all at once. It’s likely to start in one area first (if you’re referring to an actual shooting war) – and then the time honored tactic of transferring people around from one area to pacify people in another area will likely be used to put down any insurrection.
Once again – those IRA tactics that Zman talked about in the post might come in useful. If local LEO are getting transferred out West to put down rebellious ranchers (because the locals won’t do it) – I’m betting a few pictures of their family and their home address might make them think twice about accepting the assignment.
Who are the heroes in our culture over the last 20 years? The “let’s roll” people of flight 93 on 9/11, the FDNY firefighters on the same day, the utility linemen, the Cajun Navy, the people picking up and helping others after fires and hurricanes. The guys who put down the bad guys before they do more damage. No tuff grrlz or Marvel superheroes anywhere to be seen. When or if the SHTF, these guys are the ones to rely on, not the hypothetical examples of the Left.
Of how the cloud people push bullshit out to the masses to keep a lid on things. Yes – the firemen on 9/11 exhibited some noteworthy bravery that day. The Cajun Navy is the kind of civic responsibility that makes this country great IMHO (when the government isn’t stepping in and crapping all over people who go out of their way to help their fellow citizens).
The problem with the “let’s roll” people – is that it’s a lie.
The plane was shot down. I’ve got an acquaintance who works in security – and was there that day at the FAA Center in Nashua New Hampshire (responsible for air traffic in this region) – who was told flat out by a number of controllers there to not believe the let’s roll story. The words he said were used were something like ” don’t believe that BS story – the plane was taken out”.
Nobody wants to admit that the US military took out a plane full of civilians. So they come up with a story – and everybody carefully avoids the potential shit show and questions that would come from admitting to a shoot down.
The point here is: the cloud people spin fables and fairie tales at all levels.
This stinks of contrails, guy. Are you going to have to be taught how Pressure, Velocity and Temperature work on atmospheric moisture in the real world?
Maybe you ought to stop staring up at the sky and do a little research.
The plane was shot down thing has been out there FOR YEARS
The order was there – that’s not the question. The question is whether or not it was actually shot down.
This guy’s account claims that it was.
My acquaintance was very clear on what he said: The FAA controllers said the plane was shot down. Everybody was told to STFU up about it.
A good part of the problem with the right wing in this country – is that they will instinctively carry the water for the establishment left no matter what happens – and no matter how many times they’re proven to be wrong and/or the story at the time later gets proven to be bogus.
Sorry. Worked with one of the guy that counterattacked the hijackers. Totally consistent with his character and physical capabilities.
There is also the potential that BOTH stories could be true.
Either way – I see the government refusing to admit to a shoot-down as completely plausible given the types of stories we’ve seen surface *with proof* over the last couple of years.
‘Cleared to Fire’ orders from NORAD would *not* be coming over the FAA open frequencies. They would be crypto protected for obvious reasons such as preventing an internal crisis created by enemies via spoofing such orders. Also to escape monitoring by potentially untrustworthy folks such as FAA center people with no/unknown security clearances.
So it is *most* unlikely that any FAA center heard any such thing. Friend-of-a-friend-told-me stories should be assumed to be folklore until proven otherwise. Viz: Your friend got to be a momentary big shot by passing along uncheckable ‘inside information’. Caught myself almost doing it a time or two. Just saying’.
I didn’t say they “heard” anything.
Are F-16’s (or F-15’s – I don’t remember which was scrambled that day) – invisible to commercial flight tracking radar?
There’s more ways to know the flight actually got shot down than just hearing the military communications channels.
Bush and Cheney have already admitted on the record that they gave the order. They just never admitted that it actually happened.
Sorry – but I might have been skeptical of these shoot down claims four or five years ago. The last couple of years has dis-abused me of any skepticism I might have had of “conspiracy” theories. As I have already said in previous posts: I’ve been lucky enough to talk to people (cops) who have been DIRECTLY involved in things like 9/11 and the Boston Marathon bombing over the last couple of years. And the stories they tell pretty much fit the stuff the “conspiracy” folks have been peddling.
My final retort to doubters is this: who the hell am I supposed to believe anyway? The government – I don’t think so. You and a whole bunch of other people on the internet who have NOT talked to people directly involved in these incidents – maybe , but not top of the list. Or – people directly involved who were there? If I have to pick out of that three – I’ll pick the guys who were there, combined with my *assumptions* – which are derived from watching this kind of crap go down over a few decades and then carefully watching how the stories evolve over time.
I don’t trust the official party line at all. The Benghazi thing is a good case in point. Literally the day of and the next day – the truth about what was going down there was on sites like Infowars. Then it all got subsumed under the bullshit story about it being a protest triggered by some buy in CA who made a movie that pissed off Muslims. It took a few years – but the truth starting coming out anyway – and that truth pretty much matched what was presented literally that first few days on the “conspiracy” web sites and in various forums like 4Chan.
That particular incident is a good case in point – because the story peddled by the cloud was so utterly ridiculous that it only took a few years to completely wash it away. Problem is – by the time it was purged – too much time has passed and there isn’t enough outrage left to get people to do much of anything about it. Too much other bullshit has flowed under the bridge since then. So the tactic seems to have worked.
If you want to get me to believe the government line – I’m going to respond with things like Tonkin Gulf. Yet another thing proven to be BS. It just took a few decades for the truth to come out.
NOBODY should be hoping in any way for Civil War II. It will be entirely too easy to end up in a shallow grave by being at the wrong place at the wrong time. Particularly if you live in the suburbs, ‘preper’ or not.
On topic: I don’t get why nobody seems to be examining what’s happening in Iran right before our eyes. It’s an actual insurrection in progress and the most likely sort of scenario in a Cloud vs. Dirt conflict here.
Apparently third parties may be keeping the rebels comm’s up and the army is ambivalent. Or at least the mullah’s seem to be afraid to find out which way it will jump if/when it has to. Otherwise the tanks would be in the streets already.
Current fighting seems to be rebels vs security forces. There are reports of rebels burning down local police stations. This is smart tactics as it removes the elite’s security forces’ rally points, opens up their armories and ruins the records needed for elimination of rebel leadership. It’s a different ball game from last time.
Like the 1400 comment lead article on US Civil War II posits, it seems to have a capital vs provincial flavor with the rebels holding the provincial cities. This is unlike the 2009 iteration which was an urban-elite-scion students vs blue-collar-equivalent thugs sort of showdown that the mullahs won. Whether we could have actually helped the rebels then (or now for that matter) is questionable (good way to unite the army against the rebels) but Obama’s conduct allowing the mullahs’ re-run of Kim’s NK game was both stupid and disgraceful.
OT: A fun drinking game for Rightish threads; how many comments in does it take before Civil War I starts being re-litigated.
The army in Iran isn’t the key here, The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is. That they have not become actively involved is a sign that their leadership may not be able to trust them & the irregular Basj militias as much as they thought. The next several weeks will be telling. If the people continue to protest, and the gov’t attempts to crack down, tens of thousands will die…or the people will successfully turn the rank & file of the various militias & military units against the government. THAT is how the Shah’s government collapsed. That is what the Mullahs are most afraid of.
Anyway, there will be no hot civil war until the Elites attempt to confiscate the people’s firearms, ammo, and possibly food if the climate continues to cool. That will be the trigger point.
Or as Z points out, the banks.
TPTB wont have to confiscate guns or ammo. Look at the latest laws in California. The state government isn’t taking anything. They are just making it increasingly difficult and more expensive to keep them legally. Bit by bit they make it more trouble than it is worth for the average person to be armed. The public will voluntarily give them up. If they won’t their children sure will. Because the children are being conditioned in public schools daily about the “evils” of guns.
“The distance between us and Somalia is not a big as we like to pretend.” It’s actually about 2 SD in IQ, which is enormous. However, if we continue to import Somalia into the US, the distance will shrink rapidly…
The great advantage the rebels would have in a civil war is that the Elite is comically effete. I doubt the Goldbergs and Kleins of the world can open a pickle jar by themselves. Not that too many Americans are accustomed to the sight of blood these days, but find an American with calluses on his hands: Did he vote for Trump, do you think? If not, is he really willing to go into battle on PajamaBoy’s behalf?
“Not that too many Americans are accustomed to the sight of blood these days”
Contrast that to the millions of us rurals who hunt deer every year. Most of us do the gutting ourselves. We can handle the sight and touch blood. The Pajama Boys? Not so much.
But they sure know how to toss around the threats against whites, conservatives and Christians on the Internet!
After dressing him out, should Leftist meat be stored in the smokehouse or the freezer?
On second thought, will the dogs even eat it, instead?
The US Right has millions of combat vets from decades of war and rebellion and a lot of non vets like me who are farm boys and/or scrappers.
The ones that are string but not string enough can help in other ways anyway.
Toughness is not our issue, leadership and goals are.
Long and short so many of us won’t fight because no one knows what to fight for
Fighting for – to be left alone. Fighting against – an intrusive federal government. Zman isn’t a fan of the Oath Keepers, but I am grateful for those who took the oath to support the Constitution and intend to adhere to it. It is too bad the jurists and congresspersons ignore their oath.
Minacrchy didn’t really work well past the Whiskey Rebellion and doesn’t work, can’t work in a world with the technology we have
If you don’t regulate someone will use tech to enslave or kill you because that is what people do and while America has far more than the average nation of “live and let live” sorts it only takes a handful of the other to rain ruin upon everyone
Frankly leave me alone is not a goal and just ends up substituting one master (an indifferent to slightly helpful Republic ) for another (a wholly selfish Corporation)
You are in this world, ruling men or being ruled by them
No one gets to run off to Monticello 2.0 and be left alone, no one because simply if you aren’t holding onto power someone will take it from you.
Don’t get me wrong, there is room for trimming and for a recognizable posterity but in a world like we have built, you will have a lot more government no matter what you want and its going to be federal too.
The left has far more money, much better organisation, control of key cities and elite support. Guns are cheap. organisation isnt. In any civil war, the left will start with a considerable advantage.
Big difference between hunting and killing someone…..the first one is expensive, the rest are free.
Does a deer move and shoot back?
Nope but that’s a skill that can be learned and will be learned. Its easier for the Right if they decide to fight but if lives are on the line and they are motivated even bugmen and soyboys can pull a a trigger if they must. They’ll change in so doing but so be it.
Assuming men 70 and under, the US has had not a single measurable period without armed conflict of some kind and even for people who aren’t soldiers, armed police work , private training and a myriad of useful related skills and attitudes
The Right is very well equipped for war except for organization
It doesn’t want one and I’m not sure will fight unless active genocide or gun confiscation is in the offing but its hard to say , armed bands of men many veterans defended Bundy Ranch and pipeline protesters from police and while cucky types people from BLM riots as well
It only take ones screw up , one Crispius Attucks or one Randy weaver to start a conflagration. Note too people generally don’t like the Bundy’s or Mormons yet plenty were willing to defends them
I can predict any outcomes, all I know is a near end to new immigration, BTFO on the far left and substantial deportation is the only way to save the union
if we don’t , maybe we don’t know what’s cooking but you can stick a fork in it. Its done.
The eventual war war look like a combination of Beiruit and the congo war. The cities will divide into communities ruled by local criminal syndicates and warlords and based around ethnicity. The penalty for stepping into the wrong neighborhood? Death. The war will be fought by armed mobs, gangs and militias. It will be a hell of bombings, massacres, snipings and skirmishes.
An obvious problem for Globohomo Empire is they proclaim they value certain values – free speech & technological innovation, but to be successful they’ll need to control & suppress these. They NEED to control crypto-currencies & alt-tech – that’s doable but difficult. In the US, they’ll also need to violate/eliminate/undermine more than they have already the 1st & 2nd. Foreign players like China & Russia maybe willing to interfere in domestic disputes by simply leaving tech doors open – bitcoin. Globohomo’s veil is wearing thin & the public is increasingly aware of that. Their domestic hegemony relies on legitimacy, but to stay in power they need to exercise it & that demonstration of power reveals their hypocrisy & dishonesty.
They’ll use media – but everyone hates the media. Add to all this the perception of “cool” & what is “dissent” to generation zyklon. The alt-rights greatest weapon is expressing truth through brutal mockery (very cool) and using good will towards our in-group, expressed by recent actions of Identity Europa. We’re both sweetly earnest & vicious attack dogs.
The recent conflict within the skeptic community on youtube is a great indicator. They attacked the alt-right on our strongest argument – race realism – and had their assess handed to them. They’re afraid of us.
That Anglin chap has “ishoos” don’t he?
Cut of power and fuel – the physical electric grid is vulnerable as are pipelines, and tanker trucks – and the cities will be starving in a few days. Take out the refineries and where do the airplanes get their fuel? And there’s lots more that can be done by an insurgency to shatter our brittle and very long logistic supply lines.
Look at what happened with the Hurricanes and Wildfires.
Also note the demographic of the linemen who repaired things (when not being shot at). No power, no EBT cards, no access to the deposited Social Security retirement or disability. No restocked grocers. No heat or A/C. No medicines – what happens when your pills run out. The airports will be closed (remember Atlanta recently).
You won’t need Sherman to burn down Atlanta. The residents are likely to do it themselves after two weeks without services. And the rural parts of Georgia will still function.
The Government’s reaction will make things worse and polarize things further. Whites being forced at miliary gunpoint to restore things for rioting blacks trying to kill them that probably will be burning their cities down. The retirees who have to be relocated to FEMA camps and held as prisoners. The tanks can patrol the cities and suppress some of the Ferguson/Baltimore style violence, but that is where the blue side is. How do you control the red flyover diaspora who simply has to do nothing while the Hillary Archipelago goes up in flames?
This would be a 4th generation war – an insurgency – not a conventional war by any means. Why can’t we win in Afghanistan? Why did Iraq take so long.
Read William S Lind “4th Generation Warfare handbook”, his novel Victoria which is about a breakup of the USA, and had an archive but still has articles on Military.com like http://www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190,Lind_091404,00.html
That would give more details, but you need to stop thinking World War II or even Vietnam style war. You have pampered poodles, one pit bull, and a bunch of porcupines.
I spent a good chunk of my life in the UK, and specifically Northern Ireland, or “NornIron” as the locals would say. Even the name itself is loaded with political connotation. Ask anyone sympathetic to the Irish Nationalist/Republican cause and they will in invariably refer to it as “the North of the country”, or the “six counties”. I am and always will be fiercely loyal to the Crown and take very seriously the phrase “United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland” embossed on the front of the passport. I honor and revere the countless tens of thousands who gave their life for crown and country was brought up to see armed insurrection against the state in time of war, as the 1916 Easter Rebellion was, as the truest form of high treason: no matter how romantic it may seem, those men got what they deserved.
Those of us who are “Loyalists” prefer the term “Ulster” to describe the province and are just as willing to commit, or at the least tolerate, often horrendous violence against those who would try to forceably unify the province with the 26 counties of the “Free State”, the Republic of Ireland. Is it sectarian? It all to easily evolved into that, but tbehere have been plenty of Catholic loyalists and Protestant nationalists. In the absence of skin colour, accent, schools and even football teams (loyalist Glasgow Rangers versus nationalist Glasgow Celtic), became watchwords for political loyalties.
I say all this because I see the US devolving into a low intensity conflict much as I witnessed in Belfast, Londonderry and the rural areas which make up the majority of the province. Council estates or “the projects” to Americans will become (have become?) no go areas where utility workers will fear to enter to dare turn off unpaid/delinquent accounts (noncompliance the Republicans called it, refusing to pay rent or anything else which financially benefits the state) under threat of violence, even with a police escort. More than once I’ve seen grown men brought to palpable fear simply by having a complete stranger come up to them in a pub and casually drop the name of their wife, their children, what school they attend, what busstop they use and where their wife gets her hair done. “That yer car? It’s a nice car. Be a shame if anything happened to it. Yer wife and kids use it too don’t they? Sits out back yer house off the Ormeau Road.” That type of psychological violence, or night letters, or as was the case in Ulster, mailing someone a bullet, can go a long way toward effecting a breakdown in the rule of law and making men go weak in knee. Talk about 4G warfare, the lads on the Falls and the Shankhill perfected it into an art.
Loyalist violence was born out of reactionary violence to IRA atrocities, but was given back in horrendously brutal ways: just research the “Shankhill Butchers” to see unspeakably graphic examples. Ironically those same paramiltary killers are now trying to morph into a political party. It was horrible– without question–
but it brought lukewarm republican sympathisers to the IRA leadership demanding a political resolution because it undeniably broke the back of the Nationalist community to watch so many innocents slaughtered.
I see the same fundamental breakdowns happening in the States now, and while I agree the Spanish Civil War may serve as a future template, with rural loyalists and urban revolutionaries, the “Troubles” are undoubtedly, I fear, the first step on that road. Even the dog in the street can tell you that.
Improved economic opportunity has dampened the divide in modern-day Ulster, but it still lies there like a fault line, waiting for the next tremor to reopen old wounds.
I welcome any comments or civil discourse my reply may bring.
In my frequent visits and time spent living in the UK and in Ireland, I was always struck by the depth and intensity of the blind reflexive hate of the other side. It is not a healthy thing, and difficult to dislodge, once in place. Many innocents and young men serving their countries (and tasked to keep the peace, by and large) have been chewed up over the years.
Thanks for providing a thorough summary of yet another example of how bad a civil conflict can become. And, I’m pretty sure I’m right that there were/are no actual racial elements to it, unlike Ruanda where the Hutus and Tutsis were (arguably) of different races as well as tribes (Hutu’s – Bantu, W. African origin; Tutsi’s – Nilotic, E. African origin).
Seems just a little examination can turn up numerous potential historical examples: For example Chile in the ’60s and ’70s also comes to mind.
It’s my impression that both sides had external support/ interference. For example, I remember seeing ‘IRA Tip-jars’ in pseudo-Irish pubs in the upper Midwest in the early-mid ’70s. I also remember thinking at the time that this was near-criminal* virtue signaling by would-be elitist posers who frequented said taverns (Ya wanna fight, go there. Otherwise leave well enough alone).
*Participating (via funding in this case) in a foreign conflict by US residents from inside the US is, in fact, a federal crime under US law. I think Pres. Reagan quietly cut off the IRA’s water in the early ’80s under pressure from PM Thatcher. Hopefully this had some effect too. Pres. Carter had left the pipeline open to head off pressure from Teddy K’s NE Irish mafia ahead of the 1980 primaries, IIRC.
The American public’s (a small part of the population) support for the IRA struck me as similar to the pockets of American Jewish support for Palestine. Those who suffer not at all from the consequences like to stir things up against Ulster and Israel, and make the people there suffer greatly.
There has long been a sense of solidarity between Ulster Loyalists, Israelis and South African whites. All three see themselves as having carved out a homeland amidst less-than-welcoming neighbours, and all three have seen what happens when you give an inch or fail to keep the hard men on the walls. What goes in Ulster goes in Israel just as in Orange Free State: “No Surrender.”
AntrimOrange, I hope you become a regular commenter here. What, in your opinion, is required for the Boer to get off his knees and survive? Arguable, he predated the Bantu in South Africa arriving shortly after our own Pilgrims arrived in New England.
Also, what is a proper response to a threat such as this besides immediately killing the person who said it?
Let the rot continue. I’ve been to South Africa, and Capetown is, or used to be, a garden city. Now the future of South Africa, the venture capitalists and entrpreneurs who kept things working have fled to the US and to some extent the UK. Zuma is wandering down the same path Bobby Mugabe strode, and you see where that got him. The same thing which happened in Rhodesia will happen in South Africa. Yes, the land is rich in natural resources, but then again, so is Sierra Leone and you see how well that has gone. When the people who run things competently (read whites,) flee, capital in hand and the lay worker finds himself without a job or a dole then the schlerosis ends. In Nigeria, where the wealth is in the hands of the few while the squalor is in the hands of many, the buckets of money handed out by BP and Royal Dutch Shell have dried up. Kill the kleptocracy and you kill the society it breeds. Improved economic conditions and the demolition of socialism helped in Northern Ireland. Thatcher began a program of selling state-owned council housing to the tenants at rates discounted based on how long they had lived there, and what that did was give people ownership in their communities. When it was a subsidized government-owned semi-detached bungalow or rowhouse no one cared when the paramilitaries wanted to paint grafitti or huge murals or hide ordnance in the back garden, but once it became privately owned, people were much less willing to turn a blind eye.
In many ways, 11 Sept. 2001 did as much to change the Northern Ireland situation as anything because it began to dry up financial support for criminal groups, at least as far as Irish-American money, because “supportin’ the cause” began to be seen for exactly what it was: sponsoring terrorism. No matter how you dressed it up in romantic lore about “stopping John Bull”, or any of that “26+6=1” bollocks it was still the use of violence against civilians to effect political change, and that’s the definition of terrorrism. So as a result, scum like Rep. Peter King of NY, who used to be thick as thieves with Gerry Adams and his PIRA “freedom fighters” had to put a wee more distance between him and the IRA beggars who came calling.
The other thing which froze out those willing to die for Ireland was hard men –most notably he SAS–who granted their wish. It used to be a common sight to see helicopters hovering in place high over Belfast, and you knew there were SAS snipers just a radio call away. When you out terrify the terrorists it works, and I fear that is
exactly what the Americans have lost. People may have hated the Romans, but they bloody well feared them. That is what the British Army never lost. Remember when American contractors were burned alive and hanged from the bridge in Fallujah? That’s when the Americans should have lined the road with crucified bodies per se. All this community engagement shite went nowhere in Iraq, has gone nowhere in Afghanistan and did little to change the situation in Ulster. It’s when the insurgents genuinely fear they and their families are next and see the fallacy of their ways that they lay down their arms and come to the negotiating table. It happened with the Sunni Awakening in Iraq, brought the Provos to the table in NI and is cutting off funding for Islamofascist violence pouring out of Saudi Arabia.
It’s becoming clear to me that most of the Boers will have nowhere to flee. When Rhodesia collapsed, some of the Rhodesians went to SA, some went to Oz, some went to the UK and other parts of the Anglosphere. South African Afrikaners/Boers have been trying to flee to Western countries but have been denied. Recently, they made a “right of return” case to the Netherlands, France, Germany and other countries they originally hailed from and were denied. My question is, “Since they probably cannot flee, will the Boers ever fight for their own state or will they simply get massacred?” Alternatively, some may flee to Angola or Namibia where some of the cities have Dutch names and were presumably started by Afrikaners.
The proper response is two in the chest and one in the head.
Boston, San Francisco and New Orleans were for the Provos what Toronto and London were for the Loyalists. I was told personally by a former PIRA man of a certain Irish pub in New Orleans where anyone on the lam from the law could show up and drop the right names and be put to work off the books and shielded from any questioning interlocutors. I’m sure the same went on in Boston and San Fran. Racially unionists and fenians may be same, but culturally the gap is as wide as ever. I’ll never forget the bold-type headline in the Belfast Telegraph announcing the PIRA’s 1997 ceasefire. In the bottom left corner of the same front page was a blurb announcing the killing of a Catholic girl and obviously intentional wounding (one in the kneecap,) of her Proddy boyfriend. That was how the hoi polloi were kept in line.
Bless you for mentioning Ted’s mafia and his “North American Irish Fund” to buy guns for the IRA. What was his financial interest in keeping the Troubles going, I wonder.
(Zman has mentioned Boston southies either writing a check or wishing they could.)
I am certain he murdered his nephew, John Jr., who was preparing to run against Hillary for the office of junior Senator of NY.)
Now we know why he appealed to a foreign power, Andropov (the Russians!) for help to defeat Reagan and rag Thatcher.
AntrimOrange, could you give a brief breakdown of the sides involved?
Your invaluable example is more relevant and recent to current times.
Another potential historical example would be Venezuela in the early 80’s- apparently they had a similar Trouble that is widely known but little mentioned. Perhaps Montefrio could weigh in on this?
Latin American spasms and their resolutions may provide something of a guide in our multicultural age.
The Irish Troubles are essential to understanding our urban elites’ machinations. Thanks to both of you.
Mum and I visited Belfast a while back. Part of my ancestry includes Orange Irish people from Belfast. So we were more attuned to emotions and feelings than most clueless Americans.
The suppressed emotion/anger was quite evident to us. Once, sitting in a pub having dinner, we shared a table with an older couple (say 60s or early 70s in age). They were cautious at first, probing us to see who we were. When I told about my ancestors, they thawed noticeably. The man was from Tyrone (I could barely understand him but Mum could). I had ancestry there but we weren’t related. His wife was Belfast born.
It was all we could do to not laugh aloud at the subtle probing, but at the same time we were kind of sad. Because I also have Irish Green too – some Donegal ancestry. As an American, we don’t get into that kind of fuss (we have our own issues) but comprehend why they do. Had we ended up in a Catholic pub, I’ve have de-emphasized my Protestant ancestors and spoke of my Donegal Catholic ones.
It was no surprise a few weeks after returning home when we heard of some trouble in Belfast; some very unpleasant incidents including rioting and robbery. Mum and I just looked at each other and shook our heads in acknowledgement. We felt the antagonism there (not directed at us) so the violence breaking out was definitely not something unexpected.
It’s too bad. Truly.
as an Irishman of southern extraction living in the US, I would tend to disagree with much of what you say. I would suggest that 1916 was very good timing for a conquered people to rise once more against their colonial masters. Perhaps readers of this blog can decide for themselves whether loyalist or nationalist violence came first. I don’t think Northern Ireland as a conflict has good parallels with the US: it consisted of 2 roughly equal populations with great historical animus living in close quarters with limited weapons and the army/police favoring one side. There were few emigrants and only one main racial group. I see the US as being a very different situation.
Well taken mate; but don’t think for one moment the Ulster-Scots are or ever were lackeys to the English.We like them little more than your tribe do. Catholic Irish have always tended to be rural and Protestants urban, mainly for defensive protection, going back to plantation days. It is rather similar to the laager mentality the Boers developed against their bantu adversaries. It is also part of the reason the Ulster-Scots fared so well in the backcountry of colonial America where the land was cheap and they were used to having hostile neighbours. I still say, (though you may only partly agree,) feck the English and God save the Queen.
I don’t need to read this pabulum. I’ve read it before. Atlantic has a circulation of 20k, a vanity rag forthe effete and fading upper MC.
The future of whites will be determined by smart, tough, productive white people, not by academic gofers.
Tom Chittum’s Civil War II is a much better guide to what is coming.
Whatever happened it won’t be televised, written down or blogged very much . The Clinton Doctrine as its called after Bosnia makes the press and that is a broad category a primary legitimate wartime target
Andrew Anglin is an Establishment agent. He’s a hustler with an Asian girlfriend. Like Mo Seligman Dees he’s going after a market. Any purported “white nationalist” using Nazi memes is deploying boilerplate jew tactics of keeping whites in a solutions corral–solutions which fail. The”Daily Stormer,” my ass.
And you cite an Atlantic article. Please… it’s a northeast metrosexual rag. No healthy white man or woman reads faggot pubs like the Atlantic.
So you’ve never actually read anything the guy has written, which he admits is largely through the use of comedy and satire to break through to larger masses. You think it’s like some bottom-of-the-barrel types goose stepping through town and forming street gangs. Okay. The super serious stuff doesn’t really work any better you know.
Nick Griffin in Britain was serious. Didn’t work. The enemy simply had too much of a chokehold on all institutions, so a new approach was needed and unless you’re going with some weird 4D chess narrative, Anglin’s site has been a first for many types of new internet censorship and deplatforming.
Don’t pretend you have any real clear-cut solutions, either. You don’t.
So wars are won with an angry letter to the Atlantic?
Who wrote an angry letter to the Atlantic? The fake news made-up and contradictory stories contained in the article by some middle-aged failure at life aren’t something Anglin wrote to the Atlantic. It’s something some hack wrote for them.
Keep sperging about him somehow being a fed or something, though.
AA is one guy
Look at the last few election maps by county – any red vs. blue civil war would be urban versus rural (even in the north). The liberal city dwellers would be extremely vulnerable. Cut their water, fuel, and electricity supplies and the war would be over in a week.
You are right about the military disintegrating spectacularly. Those 20% of the military in combat arms tend to be the rural red state types who would melt away before turning on their people.
I was running long, so I did not go into it, but this civil war will not be fought in real space. It’s not about holding physical turf. It is about cultural turf. Two people in the same office, in adjacent cubicles, can be combatants on opposite sides of the war. Neither party wants to tumble into the street to fight. I suspect that’s the reason the Left pulled the plug on Antifa and BLM. For the same reason there were no great naval battles in the Great War, we probably will not have many street battles in this war.
Acts of terrorism & assassinations would happen in later stage. It would be coordinated small groups (cells) vs. what’s left of state force (police). I agree that we’re not gonna see traditional troop actions. The Middle East offers a template.
I have to disagree. I believe we have already seen the shape of the civil war, in real space, armed men in support of the Bundy’s. The Feds back down, jury nullification or the malfeance of the prosecution frees the ranchers. The Feds can’t murder too many more LaVoy Finnicum’s without their agents (police, political, and judicial) becoming targets themselves. And rightfully so.
This happened back in the 90’s as well with McVeigh which was at its root a retaliation for federal overreach.
There were also plentiful militias at the time though not as many as now which is interesting
The Right biggest problem though its its inability to lead or be lead , they simply have no organizational backbone that can’t easily be placated or co-opted like the Tea Party
This is why the .Alt Right catches so much flack. It provides an alternate order and if anything else the White Right craves order above all else
That desire for order though makes the chaotic action that starting such a war would entail too difficult .
A new system that H/T J.M Greer “sucks less” than the current one and has an emotional heart that appeals to the Leave me Alone Rebel Right , SWPL’s and the rest alike would be enough to make people want it badly enough to take the risk . Hallmark Movie meets Duck Dynasty basically
Nobody has proposed much of one yet even the .Alt Right and Vox’s 16 Points while better are not massively better than reforming the Cathedral if such a thing can be done.
A huge number of us don’t care about religion, aren’t that moralistic about gays and aren’t economic liberals and the instant the moralistic blather and theological nonsense starts tune them out.
Also economic liberalism has to go. Mind you Communism isn’t workable, its delusion garbage and worse Utopian but we need something new/
I’m not as socialized as a Bernie Bro but an anti immigration, pro gun and speech Bernie could do really really well in the political sphere , better than President Trump to be honest and far better than the Deus Volt crowd ever would.
It would also help a bit of there were not actual Nazi parasites trying to latch on the Right but the press would turn Mister Rodgers into Hitler reborn if he didn’t support the globalists narrative so its a lesser matter
Still for all of that , the real trigger of a war if one comes will surprise all of us. The Zeitgeist is there for it, so many people serious minded and educated think it can and probably will happen. This tends to amplify existing forces and that can easily lead to a shooting war
Agreed. But the countryside can simply cut off food and other necessities by attacking the supply lines, and that will result in rapid meltdown of the urban commies….
If conditions aren’t right for a street fight, I suppose we should expect sabotage, and plenty of it. A dirty contest, but I think you are right — a quick one.
The port cities are all very left wing. The red counties would have to fight for control of some of the coastal ports.
Not to be a fly in the ointment, but South Africa and Rhodesia are an argument against “the rural whites will win.” Cities have a lot of people who will drive the countryside to kill isolated whites. You can demolish the roads, but then you’ve cut off your own resupply. Alt Right ex-SOF guys counter that they will simply form light infantry forces like the Rhodesians did. I counter that the number of men in good-enough shape in this country to be light infantry troops is almost nil.
Bill Lind wrote a novel about American-based 4GW called “Victoria.” Matt Bracken has written some novels also. Here are some more resources. I recommend Lind and Martin Van Creveld:
Its not that hard to get into shape to be light infantry, it requires motivation more than anything
That isn’t there, yet.
Note though the Right was willing to street fight with AntiFa last year and in nearly any case where the police didn’t help the Reds outright, the Right won
I read Bill Lind’s book on training light infantry forces. Getting in shape to walk 40 km a day with a ruck on low sleep and food is not something most people can do which is why so few people make it through Ranger school or SF school. I agree it takes motivation – a lot more motivation than most people have.
The largest army in the world are those who hunt in the US. 90% of them are not Liberals. Those are your light forces. Toss in the vast numbers of older guys like me, who have the knowledge (USMC 82-84) of how to utilize small unit tactics, and you have a very different picture. I don’t think, that street thugs, from a city, trying to “fight” organized units would last very long in any sort of combat situation. They lack the cohesion to last more than 10-15 minutes…before they would start melting away. Would the city slickers cause casualties, sure…but not nearly as many as they’d take.
For instance, take most semi-automatic pistols and turn them on their side and shoot them like in “the movies”…they jam. A jammed weapon in combat, if you don’t have the training to clear it can quickly cause your death. Most of these thugs only know how to drive by and strafe…not how to operate out in the countryside.
Clearly you were never to Rhodesia or South Africa. The majority of whites in both nations were rural dwellers but they also controlled all urban areas. The Rhodesians were never defeated in the field nor were the South Africans.
The Rhodesians couldn’t endure a war against the world. The South Africans were sold out by Botha.
There is no valid comparison because a civil war in the USA wouldn’t be primarily racial, though it would form an important part of it. It would be the classic civil war we saw in Germany, Hungary, Rumania, Russia, and are now seeing in AMerica.
The point was made that rural red-state people would easily defeat urban blue-staters. I wondered why that hasn’t happened yet in South Africa 20 years after its collapse when it is clearly going the way of Rhodesia and there have been 10s of thousands of murders of conservative Afrikaner farmers – the very types of people who should supposedly easily defeat urban Bantus. There are a variety of reasons the Boer is still living under subjugation, including that he is vastly outnumbered. I think the state of the Boer should caution us against chest-thumping and overestimating our willingness to fight and our prowess.
Indeed, 20 snipers could cut off pretty much all supplies of food to most major cities. Shoot, move and shoot again. Truckers would refuse to drive into the disputed areas.
Antifa and BLM were probing missions, to figure out the landscape. I don’t think the powers-that-be were too happy with the answers they got back.
Great War = WW1? No great naval battles? Jutland, anyone?
Jutland. ‘enough said.
The reason why there were very few great naval battles in WW1 is that both the British & Germans couldn’t “win” the war at sea, but they could LOSE it if their respective fleets were destroyed. THAT is the reason why there was only 1 large naval battle. There were several dozen smaller fights, Dogger Bank, German naval raids against the English coast through out the war by their Battle Cruiser & Cruiser squadrons. The British on the other hand, played to not lose, which is a very different animal altogether.
“For the same reason there were no great naval battles in the Great War,”
Yup I guess that’s what every civil war in history has shown us.
Those who don’t know their history are bound to repeat it.
I would love to reenact Sherman’s march to Lake Michigan.
Here’s a view from the Plains of Redneckistan. Amateurs play fantasy football using stats of tactics and weapons. I see logistics about me, beans and bullets. Beans especially, in the form of grains and electrons. If those conveniently heaped mountains of grain were to be destroyed (or ideally, not planted to begin with) our country would go hungry, but a third of the world would starve. This would have the added benefit of putting pressure on the Elite from new directions. The electrons, carried by the elaborate, fragile and impossible to secure grid would be embargoed too. Want to kill a city? Use a slow motion nuetron bomb, turn off their running water.
The Elites produce nothing in the way of necessity. Reduce the war to necessities and win. The Elites should strive to placate the Morlocks, or else harsh reminders and replacements will happen. They will be replaced and their humanist vanity gardens of parasites burned and salted.
Our media is too busy reporting on the Kardashians and Nat Anthem protests, but you would be surprised how much the East Asian countries have diversified their rice supplies in the last couple of decades. By diversified I mean “bought huge tracts of land in South America, Mekong Delta, Indonesia, etc.” Russia is now grain self-sufficient. Europe and MENA would be hit the hardest.
Upvoted for “humanist vanity gardens of parasites”.
when we get the last white president, I think whites may assassinate liberal federal judges in a bid to break up the federal union by having the president appoint conservative judges
also, I think biotech would come into play, especially race-targeted mutant viruses
The last “There Will Be War” volume had a story about the Chinese clearing out Africa that way to make room for colonization.
Story is: SEVEN KILL TIGER
by Charles W. Shao
Pournelle, Jerry. There Will Be War Volume X (Kindle Locations 194-195). Castalia House. Kindle Edition.
p.s. In the same volume is this not to be missed article: WAR AND MIGRATION
by Martin van Creveld
Pournelle, Jerry. There Will Be War Volume X (Kindle Locations 1820-1821). Castalia House. Kindle Edition.
bootlickers of the elite voted me down…a shame that we have allowed the blood to run thin