Self-Assessment

On Monday of this week, I had a conversation with a client about the normal stuff we talk about on a regular basis. Of course, the panic was a topic, as every business is figuring out what they need to do to keep the doors open in the panic. This person is generally sober minded and skeptical about most things. He is one of those guys, who can get wound up over little things, but those little things are stupid things. Otherwise, he is not the sort to mindlessly join the herd in the latest fads.

Anyway, I just assumed he was as skeptical as I was about the panic, so I said something along the lines of this being madness. To my surprise, I got a lot of push-back about how this is super serious. He did the old “my wife knows a doctor at some hospital and she said 70% of people will get this.” It is the Ferris Bueller gambit, in which a mythological expert several steps removed from the person, is the most reliable source of information on the planet about the subject.

Of course, I made the mistake I often point out in politics and that is I countered his claim with actual facts that anyone can look up. I pointed out that there are eight billion people on the planet. I told him more people have died from suicide in China than from this plague and China is the epicenter. My client listened, but it was quite clear he was on the side of strangers he reads on-line. Those people are much more convincing to him, because of something called abductive reasoning.

Abductive reasoning is where you start with an observation or set of observations and then you find the simplest and most likely, or what feels like the most likely, explanation for the observations. Greg Johnson talked about this in his review of Ben Novak’s Hitler & Abductive Logic. In this case, my client sees the panic and the outlandish actions of government officials and thinks, “What could be causing this?” The best answer, the one that is the simplest, is that the virus is the Plague of Justinian.

Later in the week, I had an e-mail exchange with someone, who is most certainly on this side of the great divide. The e-mail was about the cancellation of this year’s American Renaissance and other dissident events due to the panic. I once again assumed he was on the sober minded side of this issue, so I freely called it a panic. What I got was the old line about “If we can save just one life.” In this case, he thought staying home for a couple of weeks was a perfectly reasonable measure.

The mistake I was making here was in not talking to someone where they are rather than where I would like them to be. That is, this person is a non-technical person working in a non-essential part of the economy. He will get paid to stay home for two weeks, so this is a nice unexpected vacation. He also has kids, so he feels he has to be extra cautious, as people literally count on him for their existence. He’s never going to respond to facts and reason on this issue. He’s being justifiably selfish.

Both of these examples are useful in thinking about politics. The whole point of politics is to persuade people. Being right is a nice side benefit, if you are into that sort of thing, but it is rarely an essential element. People, even smart people, respond to emotional appeals and moral appeals before appeals to reason. Critically, only left-wing lunatics put politics ahead of their personal safety or the well-being of their family. “For the children” is a cliché because it was highly effective.

In this case, after the panic has subsided and we are evaluating the wreckage, most of the people who supported these measures will be right there with extreme solutions to remedy the fallout. The curve flatteners will be demanding a New Deal to restore the economy and boost the stock market. Many may even howl about the foolishness of destroying the global economy to save a few extra people this year. People are funny that way. They forgive and forget their errors first.

It will be tempting to remind these people that they were warned about the trade-offs, but supported the panic anyway. In six months, a lot of curve flatteners are going to be complaining about the downstream consequences to this. Just as facts and reason are of no use in this panic, they will be of no use in the aftermath. It is a lesson dissident need to take from this current crisis and put to use in the next. Like animals, people must be led, exploiting their naturally tendencies, not their reason.

That’s the hard part of politics for the sorts of people that naturally find themselves on this side of the great divide. The bigots and anti-Semites, of course, end up over here because they have nowhere else to go, but most people are led here, because this is where the facts led them. It is the rejection of emotional appeals and herd thinking that opened their eyes to alternative explanations for observable reality. It’s asking a lot to then resort to emotional appeals in order to do politics.

That said, it is not impossible. Midweek I had a chat with another client and this subject naturally came up. This person is a self-actualizing beautiful person. Having been bitten twice earlier, I was prepared this time. I mentioned that I was worried that about how the lock-down would keep the tens of millions of diabetics from getting their insulin. This person then told me their mother was on insulin. We chatted a bit about how shutting down the economy would stop all sorts of essential items.

I could tell his sense of well-being shifted on a dime. He went from being comfortable with the lock-down to suddenly being worried it would cause him real harm. The number of insulin users is less ten million. The number is less than half that, but we all know someone that takes the needle. We can feel that without thinking about it. The ten million number is meaningless. What resonates is the one, the one person we know, who is dependent upon insulin to remain on this side of the grass.

Ultimately, this is the age-old lesson of politics. Politicians are trained to personalize issues as best they can, because that resonates with people. The town hall debate is really just a form of the AA meeting. The politician is the counselor, leading the participant in telling their story. The politician provides affirmation and encourages the groups to share in that affirmation. This is the ideal environment for the relatable sociopath, which is why democracy loves the town hall style debate.

For dissidents, there will be loads of open doors in the coming months, as the public comes to terms with what has been wrought. Suddenly, there are going to be a whole lot of people looking for the simplest and most likely explanation for what they see happening around them. The normal political construct is not going to be enough to explain it. That means there is an opportunity to provide a personal and reasonable sounding answer that emotionally connects with them.


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Ris_Eruwaedhiel
Ris_Eruwaedhiel
6 months ago

Most people don’t think, they feel, and then use reason to justify their feelings.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Ris_Eruwaedhiel
6 months ago

All people. All people have a gut reaction.
It takes training to take a breath.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

Exactly. Emotion controls all of us to some extent.

George Christiansen
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

Emotion is like intuition. Useful as a motivator to investigate, but horrible as a decision maker.

We cannot, nor should we want them not to pipe up, but they must not be let to run the show of our “thinking”.

james wilson
james wilson
Member
Reply to  Ris_Eruwaedhiel
6 months ago

The limitations of reason as they have been observed since Plato and Aristotle Logic–The art of thinking and reasoning in strict accordance with the limitations and incapacities of the human misunderstanding. Reason is an historian, the passions are the actors. Few can reason, all can feel; and such an argument is gained, as soon as it is proposed. You can only find truth with logic if you have already found truth without it. All theory is against freedom of the will, all experience for it. Man’s sensitivity to little things and insensitivity to the greatest are signs of a strange… Read more »

ProZNoV
ProZNoV
Reply to  Ris_Eruwaedhiel
6 months ago

Agreed, but it’s even more primitive than that. Read “Behave” by Robert M. Sapolsky

Vegetius
Vegetius
6 months ago

Abductive Logic = Ockham’s Razor ?

Johnny555
Johnny555
Reply to  Vegetius
6 months ago

Those who dont really have much of an argument hide in the needlessly large or opaque words. Lol. Zmans approach to the lie of evolutionary theory, which is a joke scientifically and mathematically, also displays this flaw. Again, self reflection is in order.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
6 months ago

A sober analysis that makes Greg Johnson’s extremely disappointing column from yesterday (in which he calls out Z by name!) easier to swallow.

The issue we sane folk run into is that 99% of the social media buzz on this topic accepts the deep state framing of the issue. We won’t be able to reach people until after the damage has been done.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Good example for a post I’m grinding on re: how to handle disagreements and in-fighting. Greg has a catty style that rubs me the wrong way but he’s still an ally. 9 out of 10 times it’s better to take the high road and ignore the personal beefs. It’s just the right thing to do, the manly thing to do, and from a practical standpoint, it keeps your record clean when people are keeping score later. I say this as someone who loves social blood-sport too much and has talked as much trash as anyone. It’s something I’ve learned through… Read more »

Johnny555
Johnny555
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Someone can disagree with you and you can remain friends, wow what a big concession on your part. Jesus Christ man, do you even hear yourself? Check my past comments, I bet I was the first one of your readers to ever mention what was happening in china.

Bartolo
Bartolo
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Greg is right and you are wrong. The thing is, with suicides or the flu we know, by experience, that the number of victims stays within a limited bandwidth (barring exceptions like the Spanish flu). *They don’t have the potential to explode and cause millions of deaths. A new and highly contagious virus like this DOES HAVE that potential.* During the first days of the Black Death, the Justinian Plague etc., any one could have said: “Commonly occuring diseases X, Y and Z cause more deaths than this new bug!” – and be right. But only at the beginning.

Bartolo
Bartolo
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

It has been addressed alright, just not convincingly. Look, I am a fan, and will remain one even if you call my comments dumb. But, as Cromwell said, “I Beseech You, in the Bowels of Christ, Think it Possible You May Be Mistaken”. Of course, you might be right in the end, after all. There is a lot if uncertainty. But the situation is not nearly as clear cut as you believe and erring on the side of caution is better.

Bartolo
Bartolo
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Ok, very interesting article, thank you for sharing. A sober and cautious assessment, astute observations and judiciously brought up data points. I will show up here again to apologise if this turns out to be much ado about nothing. However, my dumb mind couldn’t help but noticing 3 things. (1) Notice how Ioannidis also feels the need to hedge: “In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic.”; (2) The situation in Italy has not been mentioned, and it’s very serious; in Spain it might get even… Read more »

Member
Reply to  MemeWarVet
6 months ago

Apropos of nothing — I was trying to find the column you mention — I like how Johnson’s Wikipedia entry is “Greg Johnson (white nationalist).”

For some reason Bernie Sanders isn’t “Bernie Sanders (socialist),” and Bill Ayers isn’t “Bill Ayers (terrorist).” I’m sure that’s just an oversight….

Member
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

Found it! I’ve just skimmed it so far, but I think the part that references Zman, about “the Republican dad script” is weak. Trying to read peoples’ minds and attribute motives to them is a pretty error-prone business. Some of us are countering panicked reactions to the virus because, you know, we actually think people are over-reacting.

“The market will come back. The people who will die because of Republican greed and complacency will be gone forever.”

The people who die because of damage to the economy will also be gone forever.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

I respect Greg for all he’s done for our movement, but it’s clear his homosexuality is showing in the article in question.

HomerB
HomerB
Reply to  MemeWarVet
6 months ago

https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/how-to-handle-coronavirus-tension-with-relationships-and-roommates/ This article from the local bs joke rag, speaks to the “people” that the Z blog today addresses IMO. These are, after all, The People. From the article – an unintended parody: “Michael Day, 36, says his partner Byron Regej, 35, is “more alarmist” than him. While Regej was working from the couple’s Hell’s Kitchen apartment last week, Day, a furniture contractor, was still out and about taking business meetings. “He kept on saying to me, ‘If you keep doing this, do not bother coming back,’” says Day. At first, they butted heads. But after his last client lunch… Read more »

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  MemeWarVet
6 months ago

In general, Greg reads as if he has a lot of semi-reconciled liberal-libertarian priors. Judging from my exchanges if you piss him off online, his default setting is to psychoanalyze you and impugn your motives. He also seems to nurture enduring grudges. Note I’ve always been respectful in dialogue with Greg, I didn’t personalize anything. I counter-signal him occasionally on his Wignat pearl-clutching and his weird alliance of convenience with Anglin vs. the TRS guys, Hunter Wallace etc… as well as his wahmenism. These are gay things, OFC, but I don’t go there in debating him. It’s a low-blow strategy… Read more »

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

Casualties from the economic fallout by suicide and possibly street violence will dwarf the nursing patients who go to their sweet rewards.

Tarstarkusz
Tarstarkusz
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

Can you post the link?

Tarstarkusz
Tarstarkusz
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

Thanks.
It’s funny because he thinks Z et al are worried about a market downturn or minor recession to protect 401k plans and the re-election of Trump.
The reality is that what they may and should be worried about is the unraveling of the bubble.
Should the bubble completely unravel, it will be worse than anything the coronavirus could do.

M. B. Lamar
M. B. Lamar
Reply to  Tarstarkusz
6 months ago

I don’t think people really understand that if Humpty falls, nobody can put him back together. I don’t think it will even take all that long.

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

Vizzini – Whether people die because of “greed and complacency” or “damage to the economy” or corona virus or the flu or diabetes doesn’t matter – that was my point the other day that some took issue with. We will all die, one way or the other. The fact that someone over 80 with emphysema dies from the latest ailment of the day rather than an older and more familiar one is irrelevant. But, as repeatedly noted, people are not rational creatures and operate on emotion and a herd mentality. I’m not one of those “if it saves even one… Read more »

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  3g4me
6 months ago

3g;
A strong Christian faith helps a lot too. If you know you’re going to a better place, it greatly quells the hysteria.

Bill_Mullins
Member
Reply to  3g4me
6 months ago

It’s that overemphasis on extreme individualism we’ve all come to know and loathe … [that] makes me batty and I constantly push back against it. I’m with you 100%. I can see people taking reasonable precautions but a mayor shutting down what he (and progs like him) considers to be non-essential businesses – bars, lounges, nightclubs, taverns, indoor commercial amusements businesses, theaters, gyms, bingo parlors and bowling alleys in this case – is just plain WRONG! IM-NS-HO it’s downright UN-FEKKING-AMERICAN in point of fact! Governments OUGHT to exist to PROTECT (secure?) our rights not to willy-nilly VIOLATE them. Shouldn’t they?… Read more »

DLS
DLS
Reply to  MemeWarVet
6 months ago

People are easily led to the disaster narrative, because they love a good panic. Think about how giddy and chatty people get when a huge snowstorm is forecast. Complete strangers will talk about it like they’re old friends

Rogeru
Rogeru
Reply to  DLS
6 months ago

DLS said, “people love a good panic”

I think part of this is modern life is so dull a little danger is welcome. Triggers deeply buried genetic memories.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  MemeWarVet
6 months ago

That Johnson column was freaking appalling. It’s not a time for division, but to see thought leaders buy into what is an obvious op and propaganda merits criticism. It was this mentality that enabled the criminal ruling class.

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

I found the column quite illuminating with respect to what lessons we should draw from these times. While you may disagree with Greg’s policy recommendations, do you disagree with the lessons he draws?

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  LineInTheSand
6 months ago

My response to Greg would be (and best in mind he’s one of our best thinkers and someone I deeply respect):

Never, EVER accept our enemy’s framing of an issue. EVER!!!!

The moral assumptions in Greg’s piece do just that.

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  MemeWarVet
6 months ago

What assumptions do you mean?

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  LineInTheSand
6 months ago

Greg accepts the framing that WuFlu is a public health crisis to the level that our social betters tell us it is.

Accepting that this is a crisis on that level is like accepting that White self interest = bad. You have to break that conditioning first.

HomerB
HomerB
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

I do not make it a habit to read “columns” be neurotic gay men. Why do you? Isn’t it a case of magical thinking to assume they can be one of “the guys”?? Is there not a parable involving a frog and a scorpion – applicable when say, Lindsey Graham does something disloyal – ‘but wait, I thought he was on our side….’ wail.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  HomerB
6 months ago

When has Greg ever not been on our side?

HomerB
HomerB
Reply to  HomerB
6 months ago

And lookie there, what Tucker is reporting in re rich Chinese invaders at this moment, Mr. Frog…

DFCtomm
Member
6 months ago

saw a study over at peak prosperity on youtube day before yesterday and that said 50 to 75% of the people who get this are asymptomatic, and it has a 14 to 28 day incubation period, and it’s airborne. that makes it one stealthy flu. It seems to be hell for some people, but for the vast majority of us it’s going to be nothing. However, something I learned from 9/11 is that most people are prone to panic. Still it’s better to keep your older parents and grand parents away from it, if possible.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  DFCtomm
6 months ago

NY Times:
“38% of Coronavirus patients who were sick enough to be hospitalized were were between the ages of 20 and 54. Roughly half of those were between 20 and 44.”

Recurring. That’s the word that might haunt us.

I honestly don’t think anybody panics- except the media.
Update: (Oops- and Rod Dreher. Whoever he is. Is he gettin’ paid?)

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

38% is a big number! How many, in *real* terms, were “sick enough to be hospitalized”? And compare that number to other diseases as well. Percentages and ratios are very often used to mislead by Journos on purpose.

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  BadThinker
6 months ago

Conclusions are only as good as the numbers.

ReturnOfBestGuest
ReturnOfBestGuest
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

Indeed. WE. DON’T. KNOW. any statistics (even if we did have a protocol for collecting and analyzing them) because testing is both unreliable in the USA and apparently limited to celebs and the Utah Jazz.

Lawdog
Lawdog
Member
Reply to  BadThinker
6 months ago

20 to 54 is also a huge sample range. And how does one qualify “sick enough to be hospitalized”? Did these people have pre-existing conditions?

d. diconez
d. diconez
Reply to  Lawdog
6 months ago

not to mention, under 40 drops down to 19% or less. i can imagine these being the the smokers (and vapers) and diabetics and fatties and lower-defenses kinds among the young (asthmatics, sex workers, homos). some of these will suffer at least some strong colds… or more. we shall see. the genetic ideas of Lance Welton also make sense. seems Mongoloids and Caucasoids (specially the Aryan/Semite/Medi ones) will be hardest hit in that sense; then later the browns, who may not be genetically as predisposed, but then the southern hemisphere will hit winter later, and their own lower hygiene may… Read more »

Bill_Mullins
Member
Reply to  d. diconez
6 months ago

i can imagine these being the the smokers (and vapers) and diabetics and fatties(emphasis mine B_M) Exactly! I delivered a load of groceries to a young man Tuesday afternoon who HAD to have weighed 500 lbs if he weighed an ounce. There is no way that youngster did not suffer from cardiovascular disease, pulmonary issues and diabetes (type 2 at least) at the very minimum. Among the order was a couple of cases of some sort of soda and a couple of gallons of “fruit juice” none of which was labeled “zero calories” or sweetened with any artificial sweetener. If… Read more »

DFCtomm
Member
Reply to  BadThinker
6 months ago

No, it’s not a big number. It’s 38% of patients, but how many people infected are asymptomatic? Currently we have no way to know.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  DFCtomm
6 months ago

Sorry I should have been clearer with the sarcasm.

DFCtomm
Member
Reply to  BadThinker
6 months ago

Well, sarcasm is hard in print. So many subtle cues that print doesn’t convey. The tone of the voice and facial expression, and there are crazy people out and about. Sorry I missed it.

Nick Pick
Nick Pick
6 months ago

I detect a note of LARPing in all this. The citizens, accustomed to video stars and virtual reality, imagine they are in a movie, the kind that NETFLIX informs me is trending these days. Which means the ratio of drama to reality is badly out of whack, at least on the surface. In reality? In reality, I think many of the outraged and excitable don’t take this as seriously as they would like to think they do. If this really were a Black Death bring out your dead sixty percent mortality of the entire population, they would not be making… Read more »

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Nick Pick
6 months ago

There’s quite a bit of cosplay involved, and many are acting like they have a bit part in a zombie flick. But God knows an actual crisis awaits them, and they won’t be so down with the economic consequences of losing jobs, houses, and retirement savings, and the draconian police state that is likely to emerge.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

The Z-blog was epic yesterday.
Everything will change, forever.

The 9-11 attacks were brought up.
Millions, for years, repeatedly pointed out that “the hijackers were Arab”.

Yet Mecca remains uncratered to this day, and nothing changed, except that the global Swamp grew richer and more powerful in spades.

We couldn’t even take back the oil infrastucture we built over there. FDI always seems one way. Heck, my dad was building those oil refineries, after serving in WWll.

DFCtomm
Member
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

Not only did Mecca remain UN-cratered but immigration from the Muslim world increased in the years following 9/11. That was the insanity of the neo-cons. We’re going to drone you on Monday and kill your wife and children, but then we’ll stick you on a plane headed for the States as a refugee on Friday. It was the damnedest thing.

Lorenzo
Lorenzo
6 months ago

Good advice.

“Always be persuading”.

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
6 months ago

I’ve been wondering about the insulin issue lately. We’ve had a huge problem (heh) with obesity that has only been worsened by the easy availability and use of insulin. I mean, why bother changing your lifestyle when a simple shot can enable you to keep your unhealthy habits? Life has become way too easy.

When the insulin runs out, it will be too late to change and the obese will start dropping like flies. As for triage, giving the remaining available insulin to the type 1 diabetics will be an easy decision.

Ris_Eruwaedhiel
Ris_Eruwaedhiel
Reply to  Outdoorspro
6 months ago

A major reason for the moral rot of recent decades is that inbetween affluence, the welfare state and modern medicine, people don’t have to suffer the negative consequences of self-indulgent and self-destructive behavior.

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  Outdoorspro
6 months ago

Outdoorspro – an easy decision for you or I perhaps, but the obese who ride the little electronic grocery carts will demand “their fair share,” and they will be echoed by many – even by some here. Being rational in an age of drama and equalitarianism and individualism is akin to being disabled.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  3g4me
6 months ago

Interesting. I saw your quote, “their fair share” wrt to a fat diabetic in a electric grocery card and immediately thought, “what is their fair share”? For that manner, what is anyone’s fair share in a “just” society? —stop reading here if you are a bleeding heart— Plato defined “justice” as that virtual which apportions every man his “due”. So in your hypothetical, this person’s fair share would have to be proportional to his contribution to society. And what is this obese, sickly person’s contribution to society? Any thoughts here? Basically, my stereotype is a low functioning, none tax paying,… Read more »

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  Compsci
6 months ago

Compsci – I tend towards Aristotle more than Plato, but you raise a good point. I would emend it, I think, by more narrowly defining their contribution to their community, and what we on our side usually mean by that. I’m constantly smirking at calls to “care for our community” anywhere in ‘murrica. Frankly, the whole idea anyone is ‘entitled’ to anything rubs me the wrong way. God gave us life and free will. He didn’t guarantee fairness or health or happiness or freedom from random tragedy. That’s the human condition. Those that can’t deal with it are now running… Read more »

The Wild Geese Howard
The Wild Geese Howard
Reply to  Outdoorspro
6 months ago

It hasn’t helped that the US culture, aided by Big Pharma and Big Insurance have trained everyone to believe their health problems can be fixed by a magic pill or procedure and most people have swallowed that hook, line, and sinker. Taking responsibility for one’s health is ignored, and natural/home remedies are trashed as voodoo because there is no money in them for Big Pharma or Big Insurance.

Horace
Horace
Reply to  The Wild Geese Howard
6 months ago

“… fixed by a magic pill…” Prescription has come to mean drugs instead of a treatment plan which may or may not include drugs. Pharmaceutical profits would drop by half if doctors gave the proper prescription: get your fat ass off the couch away from the talmudvision which normalizes and celebrates your obesity and sloth and get some exercise. Websters 1828: “a medical direction of remedies for a disease and the manner of using them” Websters 1913: “A direction of a remedy or of remedies for a disease, and the manner of using them; a medical recipe; also, a prescribed… Read more »

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  The Wild Geese Howard
6 months ago

To be honest, for most people their health problems actually CAN be fixed by a “magic pill”…As long as that pill is available. Once it is no longer available, their health problems once again become very, very real problems. As for deciding who gets insulin in a time of shortage, here’s an example: I work with a young woman who is a Type 1 diabetic. Totally genetic and not even remotely her fault. She watches her diet religiously and eats carefully. She works hard and contributes. Compared to a 300-pounder eating shit with welfare money, there is no doubt about… Read more »

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Outdoorspro
6 months ago

Man, that insulin example really brings it home, doesn’t it?

Henry Lee
Member
6 months ago

I’m on your side of the divide but I have a neighbor who is prone to extreme interpretations of anything. One of his sales clients is a nurse who says the hospital system in our mid-sized Georgia city is on the verge of being overwhelmed. Currently, we have five known cases. I need to see more before I get excited.

Member
Reply to  Henry Lee
6 months ago

My daughter’s hospital isn’t overwhelmed. They’re just acting overwhelmed. They’ve seen zero coronavirus cases, yet they’re taking drastic measures. My daughter is a highly-skilled surgical technician and she’s being forced to take a week off. Meanwhile people who need surgeries aren’t getting them — all non-critical surgeries have been canceled.

Healthcare is a female-dominated field and this is the perfect storm of female hysteria.

Interesting to note that my daughter’s hospital is a non-profit. The two nearest for-profit hospitals and surgical centers are still chugging right along: “other peoples’ money.”

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

That’s the script of every NWL movie and series for the past 20 years. There’s a reason AWFLs are the most disliked contingent in the Coalition of the Fringes.

HomerB
HomerB
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Every day decision-making – from the auto industry to every battalion commander – involves acceptable casualties. We do not drive around in cars with factory 4-point harnesses and full roll cages. CO’s don’t make plans based on ZERO casualties or we all put out the white flags. FDA – every single pharmaceutical they blast at us 24/7 has a percentage of people that have side effects including, “sudden death…” Yet this panic is being managed as an expression of our FEMINIZED society now. So we will crush our economy, cause untold damage – so NO ONE DIES. No one. And… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  HomerB
6 months ago

What the heck happened to the Assistant Principal? His whole job was to be the sports coach and the man who administers beat downs to the misbehaving boys. I went to high school in the 90’s and our AP was a force of nature (though they did not let him beat kids by then).

HomerB
HomerB
Reply to  BadThinker
6 months ago

I hear you. The 90’s was a long time ago. I am talking about more recent years, and the creatures of the public school no longer included men. Males, yes. Lesbians in high places, yes.

Men? No. But off label negotiating techniques can be used vs. girly men, they are weak once they cannot hide behind “the rules”.

d. diconez
d. diconez
Reply to  HomerB
6 months ago

yep. i work in another post. the system is indeed subverted. the few nongay males sometimes know, but prefer to be quiet, or sell themselves to the poz-soy. of course, none are in authority. principals are all being replaced by diverse strong lesbians. janitors are still the one manly occupation, if all bean-lovers now. a successful assistant principal would have stood up to you and told your kid doesn’t have to have a record due to him being the aggrieved party in self defense, but still your kid would have to go to detention because he didn’t have to waste… Read more »

Screwtape
Screwtape
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

Yes, the medical field is feminized, but so is the rest of our culture. Out fem-fetish for credentialed “experts” on the megaphone to validate our badfeels is a big part of the spiraling hysterics as well. Like climate mythology, 97% of “doctors” agree that their fear is justified. The female-dominance in “government” bureaucracy means social communication and organizing also works to filter out any masculine intervention that might threaten the narrative. The narrative being anything that keeps maximum dependency on that bureaucracy. Properly identifying the problem and then taking action to solve or mitigate is not the point. In a… Read more »

George Orwell
George Orwell
Reply to  Screwtape
6 months ago

One more point of data to add to the feminization of this moribund culture… two days ago LA mayor Garcetti gave an address on the tube about this panic. Others say crisis, but panic it is. At any rate, he closed his predictable remarks with a very telling interjection. He said “I love you.”

Finally, this virus event has managed to make me feel sick.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Screwtape
6 months ago

The nail:

Girlfriend: “My head really, really hurts.”

Boyfriend: “You’ve got a nail in your forehead. Why don’t you pull it out?”

Girlfriend: “Why do you always interrupt me when I’m talking about my feelings!!”

Member
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago
BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

I went to the dentist this AM. They said they had about half of their appointments cancel on them! No trouble, easy cleaning, the hygienist said she was required to ask me if I had been traveling recently. Normal life is still going on while all around people are going nuts. They didn’t take any extra precautions other than the normal ones – gloves and masks as usual.

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  BadThinker
6 months ago

Huh. My dentist has cancelled all but emergency care until April, and I was forced to reschedule my husband’s cleaning set for 30 March.

Barnard
Barnard
Reply to  Henry Lee
6 months ago

I have read several anecdotes like that about overwhelmed medical systems in areas with a very low positive test count. Rod Dreher has been posting rants from a guy who claims to be a doctor in Wyoming that are downright unhinged. I could see the workers who take samples and process the tests feeling overwhelmed, but most health care workers aren’t being inundated with patients for this.

Dave
Dave
Reply to  Barnard
6 months ago

Rod Dreher has spiraled into a state of pathological panic over this. He is holed up in his house, he says he won’t leave under any circumstances, and anyone who questions the numbers is castigated as a denier, or worse. He sits at home generating multiple posts a day, each one more terrified than the last. For him, the apocalypse has truly arrived, not that he would know it directly because he’s hiding under his bed most of the day. As with Sailer and other conservative writers, this crisis has given us a real look at their personalities under pressure,… Read more »

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Dave
6 months ago

Yes. We’ve known it but that never has been more on display.

ConservativeFred
ConservativeFred
Reply to  Dave
6 months ago

Agree. I am disappointed in a number of dissident bloggers that have hit the panic button. I’ve seen 2 year-olds exhibit more calm and rational thought.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  ConservativeFred
6 months ago

Bloggers? Heck, we’ve seen commenters right here in panic mode. But in fairness we’ve also seen many more with considered and nuanced insight into recent events.

Sandmich
Sandmich
Reply to  ConservativeFred
6 months ago

Meanwhile our central bank that backs our currency is going underwater in an attempt to save every bank on the planet. Misplaced panic if you ask me.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
6 months ago

It’s disappointing to see that even normally rational people like Greg Johnson are buying the GloboHomo frame on this “crisis.”

We won’t be able to reach those people until a massive amount of damage has been done – but that’s something we on the Dissident Right are used to.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  MemeWarVet
6 months ago

I added the above after my original comment went missing, then mysteriously showed back up – would delete dup if I could – damn you Internet!

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  MemeWarVet
6 months ago

Zman was quite generous with the “everyone has a bad day” take on Johnson. Z or someone else wrote the other day you see how people actually are when there is a crisis, manufactured or real. Johnson always will have an asterisk beside his name with me now. The morbidity stats are available on line from the CDC and stand at less than 160 this morning. The Deep State, and that includes the hideous failure that is the CDC, certainly isn’t adjusting the numbers downward. If Johnson can’t fathom why that number is important–the bottom line, actually, it’s all you… Read more »

M. B. Lamar
M. B. Lamar
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

At this point everybody is desperate to get the numbers up. Did they die of anything – heart attack, stroke – while infected? Chalk one up for Coronavirus! Were they presumptive positive when they died? Presume no more!

What happens in 2 weeks, when people have lost their businesses, their retirements, their modern world, and it starts to become clear we’ve lost our old world, perhaps forever, and NOBODY knows anyone firsthand who was sick?

KGB
KGB
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

True. I can handle my wife’s fear mongering. That’s how she’s wired, and I know that as persuasive as I am there’s only so much effect it’ll have. But many other people don’t have that excuse. Scorecards need to be filled out today and kept for the very near future.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

What about disablement or hospitalization? Do we know yet?

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

Once the Chinese “get back to work”, reoccurrences will start popping up.

Update: Lorenzo, below-
“370,000 hospitalizations… from flu”

Still, doesn’t Corona reinfection leave one disabled?

H I
H I
6 months ago

Two things can be true at once: that the virus is a serious problem, and that we might overreact. The problem is in fact that there probably is no easy solution unless we get lucky (e.g. chloroquine actually works).

DLS
DLS
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Over 90% of mitigation will come from washing hands, assuming everyone you interact with is sick, and sheltering the old and vulnerable. All the rest is just wrecking the economy so we can feel we are doing something.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

That’s what I got out of your comments yesterday, Z. Those who say “it’s just the flu, bro” are as out of touch, in their own way, as those who see a raging pandemic. It sort of is “just the flu”, but the environment we live in makes it worse than that in a lot of weird ways not directly related to the flu, and we need to ride with that. There will be a lot of things damaged and bent, and a lot of things knocked over. This is a time of the fraying of things and people, around… Read more »

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Z;
Re hive mind dualism: You either get to sit at the mean girls lunch table or you eat in the outer darkness 😉

David_Wright
Member
6 months ago

Did you see RamzPaul’s livestream yesterday with Tiina? This issue has divided us on the right also. The green eyeshades by the numbers guys and the, even x number of deaths are too many. We may have tabled the socialism vs capitalism debate for now due to immigration but these differences are always there subjugated for a while.

Trump is Yang now is a meme currently.

Member
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

I think there’s a further fault line within the group that’s comfortable with math that’s been showing itself lately with Sailer’s hysteria in particular. Guy’s like Sailer seem to have fetishized math a bit and they’re willing to swallow the claims of pointy-heads uncritically if they’re based on the output of some kind of mathematical model. I am NOT any kind of expert on epidemiological modeling, but one of my thesis advisors at college was a published expert in the field so I’m vaguely aware of the types of models in use. They typically consist of systems of non-linear differential… Read more »

Homer Hinkley
Homer Hinkley
Member
Reply to  RDittmar
6 months ago

Exactly!!! Biological scientists have become modelers. It’s much easier to plug some numbers into an equation than to measure something rigorously. Thus, Tony Fauci can go on the corporate media shows and say it’s possible that 500,000 Americans might die from the virus. All he did was pick a number. Some modelers tried some different inputs and produced a list of possibilities. They kind of liked the assumptions that gave 500K, so Voila!!! That’s the story and we’re sticking to it. The way to measure the transmissibility, severity, and direct death rates would be randomly to test a significant part… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Homer Hinkley
6 months ago

Often Rigorous measurement is nearly impossible, so they measure a “proxy” and then pretend they didn’t. Like how psychologists call asking a bunch of questions to college students “administering an instrument to a group of adults”.

greyenlightenment
Reply to  RDittmar
6 months ago

maybe Sailer’ wants to build his math and science cred

>Since they’re non-linear, they’re also highly sensitive to starting values

the sensitivity to the input has less to do with the type of equation but rather the solution.,exponential functions are sensitive to inputs. you see with with IQ at extreme tails. The difference between a mean of 100 or 95 becomes huge in terms of relative frequency when you go way out

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Regarding math, I’d argue there’s an even finer distinction. There’s a great divide between those who are comfortable with probabilities and statistics (related but not the same thing) and those who are not. I’ve known plenty of engineers who aren’t comfortable with probabilities. Now, uncomfortable doesn’t mean lack of understanding. Can they do the math? Of course, they’re frickin engineers. But are they comfortable with that type of thinking? No. They crave certainty. The problem should have a concrete solution. Probabilities are squishy. I’d argue that comfort with probabilities and statistics requires both some math chops but, more importantly, a… Read more »

Member
Reply to  Citizen of a Silly Country
6 months ago

Probabilities create a lot of poisonous problems in our political discourse too because there are two distinct types of probability. There are “frequentist” probabilities that almost have the force of mathematical truths. If I flip a coin hundreds and hundreds of times, I can be fairly confident that it will come up heads about half the time so a probability of 50% for heads is a reasonable assumption that everyone can base decisions on. On the other hand there’s a statement like there’s an 80% probability that 10 million Americans will be die from the Coronavirus. That’s a Bayesian probability… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  RDittmar
6 months ago

I call it the “red light, green light” effect. People want to know whether to stop or to go. Probability sets don’t work like that. Instead, there is an array of outcomes, and one has to decide how to position oneself to maximize the benefits of a likely outcome and minimize the risk. Given that there are identifiable but not really measurable “long tail” outcomes also baked into the array of identifiable outcomes, one needs to decide whether the magnitude of the harm done by a very low probability outcome makes playing the game at all worth the effort. The… Read more »

Screwtape
Screwtape
Reply to  Dutch
6 months ago

This here particular thread is fantastic. I never loved math, but through brute force acquired a deep appreciation for its ability to steward certain truths while allowing for exploration. Even though DE still make me queasy. Statistics, in some odd fancy, made more sense to me from the start. Perhaps because growing up with an insane mother had me primed at an early age toward understanding the probability of bad outcomes, relative to various inputs, than say to the purity of maths. IOW, to me math works toward resolving dissonance, while stats works toward accepting it for what it is.… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  RDittmar
6 months ago

Frequency is not probability though. In a few cases (casinos, etc), it sems that the variation in causes of coin flips, die rolls, card deals, etc all follow a pattern with a certain relative frequency. But almost always folks forget that the die roll or coin toss had specific physical causes, and instead act like the bell curve has some physical meaning.

SidVic
SidVic
Member
Reply to  Citizen of a Silly Country
6 months ago

Poker teaches one a
appreciation of probabilities. I think to understand what is going on you must place yourself in the position of a college president or conference organizer. shutting it all down is very low risk. if you keep it open, however, and a outbreak occurs…. and a couple of old geezers kick the bucket…. we are seeing the fruits of the pussification of America. on the other hand I doubt the farmers will stop farming and the miners will stop mining.

Dave
Dave
Reply to  SidVic
6 months ago

Exactly.
While all of the “important” people self quarantine and sing “Imagine” on Instagram, I walk outside in NYC, and the tradesmen are still going full force, the garbage is still being picked up and people with real jobs are still putting in 40 to 60.
The class divide was never clearer.

Conewago
Conewago
Member
Reply to  SidVic
6 months ago

Actually, coal mining has been ordered closed in Pennsylvania.

However, oil and gas extraction are still allowed.

https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/gov-tom-wolf-orders-business-to-close-physical-locations-to-halt-coronavirus-spread/

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  Conewago
6 months ago

Wouldn’t surprise me if Wolf thinks he’s hurting Trump. Going after the base ham fisted. Because Trump virus. This is the stupid tax.

greyenlightenment
Reply to  Citizen of a Silly Country
6 months ago

depends how you define good at math. That leads me to the joke:

How does a mathematician calculate 3×3? He immediately says “9”

A physicist? Same as above.

Ask an engineer to calculate 3×3? He gets out his scientific calculator, inputs 3×3, and read off 9.0000000000000 until reaching the end of the screen

greyenlightenment
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

everyone thinks they are on the side of math, truth, logic, rationality, science, reason, objectivity, etc. even if to an outsider it is anything but. You can have two opposing opinions originated by individuals who equally believe their opinions are rooted in objectivity.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Negative identity risks being another “racist” or “fascist” basket where we toss those we disagree with and chest-thump about our nuance vs. their over-simplification. Almost every example of positive or negative identity can be described the other way without arguing in bad faith. There’s a core truth in the concept but the devil’s in the details. Most accelerationists are well-aware that they and theirs will suffer blowback as the system crashes. Speaking for myself I’m rooting for a net postiive long-term outcome, not expecting a utopia. Black-pilled nihilists cheering for Corona are a convenient straw man for the post-nihilist accelerationists… Read more »

G Lordon Giddy
G Lordon Giddy
6 months ago

Very good points. I even found myself going back and forth on this virus thing but ultimately looked at the numbers of deaths and compared them to past pandemic events and the total population. It’s a mathematical equation and we should not be in the panic we are living in. But it is what it is. The persuasion of panic in the media and panic among our friends is a powerful force. The societal and economic repercussions of this thing are gonna be long lasting. If a nation like China observes what the result of this panic is to a… Read more »

NJ Person
NJ Person
6 months ago

Thanks again to Z-Man. We seem to be living in a bizarro world where there is more “common sense” from (certain) people on the dissident right than the so-called “normies”.
The lack of push back by the likes of the Wall Street Journal, National Review and Reason is amazing. Governments are seizing powers of which AOC would have only dreamt a couple months ago. All this upheaval and eventual suffering is based on the known fact that there are about 8,000 confirmed deaths from the virus worldwide!

Chet Rollins
Chet Rollins
Reply to  NJ Person
6 months ago

Amazingly, The Federalist is posting some excellent articles on the panic, and their reason is not libertarian nonsense.

Tarl Cabot
Tarl Cabot
6 months ago

In a rational world, a prudent response would be to isolate vulnerable people; otherwise, business as usual.

But we do not live in a rational world, and I suspect there are other agendas at work.

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  Tarl Cabot
6 months ago

Saw that Cramer guy said Boeing needs a handout. Grandma’s got the sniffles— better save the corporations!

ReturnOfBestGuest
ReturnOfBestGuest
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

Boeing blew $43 Bn on share buybacks while outsourcing it’s engineering to $9/hr Indians. The conditions for any bailout s/b 1) Reissue the stock and make the officers and board eat it. I don’t care if they’re all bankrupted. 2) Replace the officers and board “pour encourager les autres.” 3) No more foreign visas. Bring the jobs back. Americans are sick of socialism for the oligarchs and capitalism for the productive.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

nakedcapitalism: “Boeing spent *$43 billion* on stock buybacks, helping more than double its stock price in 2017-2018, enriching shareholders, only to meltdown from its mass produced faulty planes and the current coronavirus crisis. Now they need a bailout?”

Dave Ramsey: “The market crash is 5%, for cripesakes, a correction.”

ReturnOfBestGuest
ReturnOfBestGuest
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

Goody for the shareholders. That’s who this economy is for. You didn’t address the buy-backs, debt, outsourcing, or for that matter 737s falling out of the sky (or the ensuing lawsuits.) I’m sorry for Boeing’s remaining US employees. Truly I am. I don’t see why kids should become debt-slaves for it.

Screwtape
Screwtape
Reply to  Tarl Cabot
6 months ago

Just as soon as the actual data revealed the vulnerable population to be rather specific and thus manageable, the agitprop started appearing to counter the “false” idea that the risk to younger, otherwise healthy people and children was very low. The “don’t be fooled, this can kill your babies” pieces started coming out. And even when that data became obviously dubious to the few who actually went beyond the headline or soundbyte, the convenient overarching “asymptomatic carriers” dangers are turned up to 11. Don’t be selfish! Just because you may not die doesn’t mean you can’t give it to someone… Read more »

Member
Reply to  Tarl Cabot
6 months ago

The sensible way to “flatten the curve” without flattening the economy would have been to make an effort to classify people as potential vectors, potential victims, or “neutrals”. Have you been flying around China, Northern Italy, or Iran recently? We’ll call you a class 1 Potential Vector. Maybe you didn’t visit a hotspot but simply traveled through a notorious hive of villainy and globalism like NYC recently* – you’re a class 2 Potential Vector. This pattern is extended to local traffic hubs like state capitals or a big city in any given state. If you live in OH did you… Read more »

urbando
urbando
Reply to  pozymandias
6 months ago

“It’s a perfect storm of weak men, crazy women, bad faith, greed, incompetence, and good old fashioned stupidity.”

Perfect storm is a good metaphor for the current situation.

Carl B.
Carl B.
6 months ago

It’s been known since WWl that Biological Warfare is very effective. It’s why it was “outlawed” over a 100 years ago. The only questions left right now are:

#1 “Who initiated the BW attack(China, Deep State, alliance of same, etc.)?”

#2 “How far will the world’s economies collapse?”

Answer to #2 should become apparent by May.

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  Carl B.
6 months ago

I have a feeling this is Chinese sloppiness being exploited. Just my suspicion. We’re not dealing with competent people. A bunch of tricksters, not villains.

ReturnOfBestGuest
ReturnOfBestGuest
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

It’s another thing we’ll never know. I suspect incompetence being the most likely explanation, but the other is not unheard of either.

Member
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

I know that some of this guy’s videos have been referred to here before but I just want to recommend him again. – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AB_A2HKmZgI He’s a white South African who ended up in China. This is just a link to his C-19 video but he does all kind of travelogues around China and doesn’t show the Chinese in a very positive light at all. Watching his videos gives you a very dark view into the twisted, corrupt, and soulless place that we now rely on for almost all our physical goods. It’s not just the totalitarianism either, it’s – everything.… Read more »

M. B. Lamar
M. B. Lamar
Reply to  pozymandias
6 months ago

Spent quite a bit like time in China for work though it’s been 8 years since my job changed and saved me from ever returning. The two things I learned – they have no concept of good vs evil, only rich vs poor. 2. They hold the West in bitter contempt, and are certain that they will conquer us one day, soon.

greyenlightenment
Reply to  Carl B.
6 months ago

Flu not that effective in terms of killing people compared to cancer and heart disease. it is effective though for stirring panic. that is a modern phenomenon exacerbated by the media.

ConservativeFred
ConservativeFred
6 months ago

I had my first, similar experience yesterday. Typically, a sober-minded investment person with 40 years experience and semi-retired, he was moved by an on-line video of someone in Italy reading obituaries in the paper. When I asked if the number of dead (obituaries) was out of the normal, he could not respond, but assumed it was al Coronavirus related. “You don’t know that,” as a response did not sit well with him. When I asked why a single mother waiting tables in Sheboygan should be unemployed and her child go hungry because the elderly may or may not be experiencing… Read more »

Sleepy
Sleepy
Member
6 months ago

The political class (including many of the celebrity doctors and academics) fear the apparent death-to-confirmed-case ratio, which currently stands at ~4.5% across the countries most affected (Korea, China, Iran, US, Italy, France, Germany and Spain). Under this assumption, if even 10% of Americans were infected (~30 million) we’d be looking at ~1.35 million deaths. That would be not good. Of course, there are good reasons to be skeptical of that ratio, but the political class is acting as the weatherman for this event: If the weatherman predicts a huge storm that never happens, everyone has a laugh at them and… Read more »

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  Sleepy
6 months ago

Sleepy; Good point re the futility of expecting politicians to be heroes by refusing to ‘do something’ in the face of a hostile and hysterical media drumbeat. People seem to have forgotten the daily media drumbeat coverage, daily body count, etc. of every War on Terror (WOT) casualty while Bush II was in office. And he was a fellow member of the ruling elite doing what their elite masters wanted done, FGS_! Nearly ran him out of office early. So can you imagine the shrieking coverage of any and every death that could possibly be attributed to COVID-19 had P.… Read more »

Chet Rollins
Chet Rollins
Reply to  Sleepy
6 months ago

> The political class (including many of the celebrity doctors and academics) fear the apparent death-to-confirmed-case ratio, which currently stands at ~4.5% across the countries most affected (Korea, China, Iran, US, Italy, France, Germany and Spain). Under this assumption, if even 10% of Americans were infected (~30 million) we’d be looking at ~1.35 million deaths. That would be not good.

It’s not even close to that for most of the countries mentioned.

Sleepy
Sleepy
Member
Reply to  Chet Rollins
6 months ago

I’m not if you saying I am mistaken or that you believe that the count of confirmed cases is way lower than the actual number of cases (confirmed and unconfirmed/unknown). In case it is the former, here are the latest numbers from Johns Hopkins: Country Cases Deaths D/C Korea 8565 91 1.06% China 81155 3249 4.00% Iran 18407 1284 6.98% US 9415 150 1.59% Italy 35713 2978 8.34% France 9058 243 2.68% Germany 13979 42 0.30% Spain 17395 803 4.62% Total 193687 8840 4.56% Numbers from here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html You can find similar (though never exactly the same) numbers other places,… Read more »

ChetRollins
ChetRollins
Reply to  Sleepy
6 months ago

I figured that’s what you did. I just wanted to state many countries have a far lower rate.

Thanks for the clarification.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Sleepy
6 months ago

The numerator on Sleepy’s figures is somewhat accurate (were there deaths associated with c-virus infected people who died of other causes? Did some die of undiagnosed c-virus somewhere?). The denominator is a complete unknown (most people haven’t been tested). When the denominator (cases identified) has some measure of accuracy and completeness, then we can get to work with the numbers.

Sleepy
Sleepy
Member
Reply to  Dutch
6 months ago

As I said in my initial post:
“Of course, there are good reasons to be skeptical of that ratio…”

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Sleepy
6 months ago

But it is a starting point, and likely the best one outside of the Corona Cruise numbers.

Member
Reply to  Sleepy
6 months ago

The “confirmed case” statistic is completely meaningless, though. Nobody knows how many unconfirmed cases there are. Plenty of people are like me and figure that the last place you want to be is a hospital or testing center until you have no choice.

As I said the other day, being confirmed with coronavirus doesn’t change your home treatment plan at all.

Jacques_Lebeau
Member
6 months ago

I agree that the panic and “lockdown” are doing incredible damage and that we will be paying for this for years. What I am not sure about is what would happen if we adopted a “business as usual” model. Would there be a total disease-driven meltdown, or would the death rate spike for a few weeks then return to normal as the plague burnt itself out? We don’t really know, because everywhere the virus has hit, our Masters have instituted pretty strict measures to limit the spread. The test case may be coming in Brazil, which is apparently taking a… Read more »

Jacques_Lebeau
Member
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Most humans hate uncertainty and appreciate kindness. Our Masters therefore exude certainty and kindly concern in order to remain in power — even if (as usual) they really haven’t got a clue about what is actually going on and care less about what happens to the hordes of peasants outside their gates.

Knowing all this, the question becomes, what, realistically, should I and my family do to survive? That’s my take on it anyway.

H I
H I
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

“We have no records of anything reaching 70-80% infection levels.” Are you sure? Can you provide a source? Genuinely curious. One thing I’ve learned from this thing is how flimsy much of the epidemiologic data is. Even the annual flu death estimates are just that, and are really ranges with large error bars (e.g. 20-50,000 deaths, 30-40 million ill). Most people who have the flu never get tested, some may not know they got anything, and some may know they had something but wasn’t necessarily the flu. Good data like in Vo or the Diamond Princess, where everyone is tested,… Read more »

Sleepy
Sleepy
Member
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

I’m anything but an expert on the subject, but most sources I’ve seen estimate that 30-60% of Eurpoeans DIED (rather than were infected) in the Black Death. Further, according to this article, the bubonic plague is fatal without treatment in 50-70% of cases: http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/plague.html Assuming mean of these numbers, (45% dead & fatality rate of 60%), then 75% of Europeans were infected with the bubonic plague during the Black Death. If you assume the values that will result in the lowest infection rate (30% dead & fatality rate of 70%) then 43% of Europeans were infected, so it is possible… Read more »

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Didn’t new disease wipe out 90% of the population in both North and South America?

The bubonic plague approached those rates three times in historical China, I’ve read.

90% seems exaggerated, but David Goldman also used it in one of his articles.

Could it be the diversity of European populations, and their exposure through travel and trade, perhaps.

Have any other peoples kept the historical records that whites have? (Arabs and Chinese tend to burn theirs.)

As you say, though, the relevant recent cases “all failed to infect more than 20%, with most down near 10%.”

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

Smallpox was the big one. Entire villages destroyed. There’s some evidence that the east coast of the USA was actually more populated, but ~50-100 years of European disease (brought by traders and then colonists) left entire nations without 70-90% of their populations. That’s a special circumstance of an isolated population for *thousands* of years, however.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  thezman
6 months ago

Living conditions in 1348 London would make the hardest Section 8 dweller swim back to Africa.

I’ll bet my future Chancoin fortune on that cruise ship being the worst-case scenario for infection rates. Short of deliberately infecting them, it’s hard to create an environment more conducive to spreading a respiratory virus.

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
6 months ago

Agreed. The herd is being driven to the cattle chute. Unfortunately, survival will mean, in part, assuming management of the herd. I get a slimy feeling typing that, but thems the breaks.

Screwtape
Screwtape
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

Slimy like the best way to avoid becoming soylent green is to get a job working for Soylent, Inc.?

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  Screwtape
6 months ago

Yep 🙂

Wilbur Hassenfus
Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

Well, I hope you’re right that it’s overhyped. They seem to be having trouble in Italy, but not so much in other places. Can you explain, in detail, what “flattening the curve” means? What the logic is there, and why you conclude that it’s wrong? While you’re absolutely right that our rulers are evil filth and the crisis won’t go to waste, that doesn’t tell us anything about whether or not it’s a real crisis. Nor does the dependence of diabetics on a functioning supply chain. It’s better to lose a chunk of your population than to lose your whole… Read more »

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

It’s putting the virus on the payment plan instead of getting it over with. Months, maybe years of dealing with it, long after the pandemic has, or should have, subsided.

Wilbur Hassenfus
Wilbur Hassenfus
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

Too vague.

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

Letting the virus run its course would produce a steep but short curve. Everybody who’s going to die will die in a short period of time.

Flattening the curve spreads that out over a longer period of time. The idea is to not overwhelm the health system, which in theory will save lives and prevent infection.

Flattening the curve assumes the collateral damage, including unnecessary death, from prolonged economic disruption will be less than the damage from letting the virus run its course.

The payment plan, in other words.

Wilbur Hassenfus
Wilbur Hassenfus
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

You flunked.

If you’re bright enough to understand (and you certainly sound like you are), you’ve got no excuse not to. People not bright enough are a lost cause.

I urge you to understand the issues here.

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

Let’s wait and see.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

Wilber. Maybe the reply is for someone other than Painter? Where’s the error?

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Paintersforms
6 months ago

But, with this one, you can get reinfected.
Everybody keeps forgetting that.

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

I hear China is starting up again. Not sure how reliable that is. If true, they must not be worried about reinfection. Besides, I’m not sure you can get reinfected by a virus. Or get sick anyhow. If so, vaccination would be pointless. Your immune system remembers how to defeat the virus. It would have to be constantly mutating, like the flu, and we would just have to live with it. Or it could be latent like herpes, but again, that’s something we would have to live with. Then again, that’s at the limit of what I know about viruses,… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

Are we sure of reinfection. Last I heard, there were at least two strains identified. Could one be caught after the other?

Member
Reply to  Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

Can you explain, in detail, what “flattening the curve” means?

What? You haven’t read the explainers on every single mainstream news site?

Wilbur Hassenfus
Wilbur Hassenfus
Reply to  Vizzini
6 months ago

I understand it perfectly. I was asking Z man to explain his understanding to me. I’ll settle for yours.

Edit: I don’t pay much attention to mainstream news. I would expect the “explainers”, so-called, to be vague generalizations directed at low-information folks.

Member
Reply to  Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

Who set you up as headmaster? I don’t have to prove myself to you. Do you have a point?

Chet Rollins
Chet Rollins
Reply to  Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

Z called it a magical incantation. I would call it a prayer to the Science gods.

Wilbur Hassenfus
Wilbur Hassenfus
Reply to  Chet Rollins
6 months ago

Nope.

Wilbur Hassenfus
Wilbur Hassenfus
Reply to  Chet Rollins
6 months ago

Sometimes smart people don’t think. If that’s really what he thinks.

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  Wilbur Hassenfus
6 months ago

“Flattening the curve” means preventing the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed by slowing the spread of the infection by shutting down public spaces.

Wilbur Hassenfus
Wilbur Hassenfus
Reply to  LineInTheSand
6 months ago

Without numbers, that sounds like it’s just an opinion, or a nice idea. But you didn’t get anything wrong. Very good.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  LineInTheSand
6 months ago

Thanks, Line, I was wondering myself.
(And thanks, Wilbur, for asking.)

I hate it when snob-signallers say “bonds are inverting the yield curve” instead of “bonds cost more”.

DLS
DLS
6 months ago

There will also be a lot of unprovable “just imagine how bad it would have been” if we didn’t overreact assertions. It’s like the guy whose favorite player has a horrible game proclaiming his team would have lost by more if not for him.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  DLS
6 months ago

It’s starting now. Fauci basically has been saying how much better overreaction will be. I’m also getting the vibe that the low morbidity rates are starting to evoke an “oh shit” reaction among the sincere panicmongers.

Federalist
Federalist
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

The justification for the panic isn’t falsifiable. If a lot of people die, it’s not going to be that shutting everything down didn’t work. It will be that we didn’t try hard enough and it would have been even worse if we didn’t shut everything down. If there are few deaths, it won’t be that the shutdown was unnecessary. It will be “Yay. It worked.”

Screwtape
Screwtape
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

The awkwardness will continue as the quant-media split screen the death count next to the economic numbers to all the couch-locked proles. If the deaths don’t penetrate into the six-degrees very soon, as all the shit-scale charts clearly show they will, the emotional beast switches teams. It will be “give me my goddamn job back right f’n now.” They need “my girlfriend’s nanna died of the corona (at 88 in a care facility)” to keep the “laid off and can’t make rent” at bay. The question is (T). There is a lot of stock in 15 days but most closures… Read more »

ProUSA
ProUSA
6 months ago

From the beginning the propaganda machine linked Trump to carelessness and thereby solidified half of America siding with the panic party. How does ZMan keep clients in such an atmosphere? I got my Millennial kids talked off of the ledge no problem. Meanwhile, my Nor Cal in-laws pass emails touting the latest medical analysis with “Brilliant” added on. Then I send Toilet Paper memes ridiculing their beloved devotion to the party line and don’t get so much as a laugh. Yesterday’s essay here is beyond their vision. I even got banned from American Partisan and Raconteur Report for telling them… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  ProUSA
6 months ago

People get set on what they think, and then become impervious to different ideas or contrary evidence. These days, people are taught to do that. Feelz and all…

Tarl Cabot
Tarl Cabot
6 months ago

Our society seems more neurotic than it used to be, or perhaps, it’s just that the neurotic elements in society have more influence than in the past.

Draw your own inferences as to what constitutes “neurotic”.

Barnard
Barnard
Reply to  Tarl Cabot
6 months ago

The average person has very little in the way of actual useful knowledge and believes she can look up anything she needs to know on the internet. The hive mind problem Zman mentions is another big part of it. We are seeing some signs of the worst impulses being checked. Cuomo shut De Blasio down when he floated the idea of a shelter in place order in New York City. This can’t continue for months on end.

Jack Boniface
Jack Boniface
Member
6 months ago

Line I’m using that people seem to like: “We need to end all immigration until this coronavirus thing is over.”

Screwtape
Screwtape
Reply to  Jack Boniface
6 months ago

I like it. It makes me wonder how things would be different if the bug was from the south, say Guatemala.

I can’t got to my strip mall gym to stay healthy, but I can go to a filthy grocery store full of bare-handed produce all day long.

The Mexican border is still wide open while Canadian is shut down. At least in this time of solidarity we can pretend we have a southern border.

Member
6 months ago

The strangest part of all of this is the sudden China-shilling by some of the louder voices on the dissident right. I guess if you think you can score some points against the neocons by praising the Chinese, it is worth it.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
6 months ago

It’s true but hard to square “(w)hat I got was the old line about “(i)f we can save just one life”’ with “(m)any may even howl about the foolishness of destroying the global economy to save a few extra people this year.” It does show a complete lack of rationality in the political realm. We can exploit this by appealing to emotions, as you pointed out, and the facts as they emerge will be devastating to the old order and bolster our arguments. I still expect a slide into totalitarianism from all this, but there is an outside chance this… Read more »

Raymond R
Member
6 months ago

One thing to consider as the result of Winnie the Flu: how smart was it to off shore production of essential medical supplies and medicines to China and India. This outbreak could be the beginning of the end for the globalization experiment.

Dave
Dave
Reply to  Raymond R
6 months ago

In a rational society, this would mean the end of globalization, but we are not rational, and if we were, we wouldn’t have off shored the bulk of our manufacturing to China in the first place.
As 9/11 saw an increase in immigration, I am sure we will see more, not less, globalization and outsourcing, because that’s how our leaders role.
I hope I’m wrong.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Raymond R
6 months ago

I think this is the end of globalization.

It won’t be long before boycotts of Chinese-made products become part of the virtue signaling. Good.

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

Jack – I’d like to hope you’re right but I think you’re placing far too much trust in even semi-rationality. Anyone looking at the facts logically would see the connection between globalization and Chinese corruption and American insufficiency and economic disruption. You’d be lucky if 5% of the people truly made those connections. I’m not one to gently lead people to reality; perhaps others can do so.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  3g4me
6 months ago

I think this, 3, because it certainly seems the Cloud People themselves have decided to ditch globalism and move toward a planned economy to impose feudalism. This is not being done because the masses suddenly have become rational.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

A quip at Kunstler:

“wondering whether those supply-chains from China will come back. It’s no different than the cargo cults of the Solomon Islanders circa 1947”

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  Raymond R
6 months ago

Ray; It already just happened, I think. During the Cold War (CW) there used to be pretty strict ‘made in America’ requirements for *any* govt. procurement contract, particularly any DoD related. After the CW ended, the the globalist owned US Chamber of Commerce got to work eliminating or at least diluting these rules by buying Congressmen and Representatives to create industry-specific carveouts. After a while, the many, many carveouts made enforcing ‘made in America’ impossible. I just read that one of P. Trumps executive orders snapped those rules back into place (why he invoked the Defense Production Act). If true,… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Al from da Nort
6 months ago

If true, chalk it up to someone actually looking out for all of us. So rare in politics these days.

ReturnOfBestGuest
ReturnOfBestGuest
Reply to  Raymond R
6 months ago

Let’s hope. Everyone will at some point need medicine and/or hospitalization. It’s optimal to have drugs developed and produced here stay here. Along with every other industry that’s been outsourced.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  ReturnOfBestGuest
6 months ago

The Chinese know that money and access talk. They know how to work the clouds. The clouds will ditch the Chinese only if they think Xi’s crew is refusing the clouds their gibs, or Xi has no more gibs to offer.

Tarstarkusz
Tarstarkusz
6 months ago

Instead of using their imagination to imagine the worst case scenario they can muster of the virus, they should be using it to imagine the worst case scenario of economic collapse. I heard on Tucker that in the 50s there was a major Chinese flu that spread around the world and killed quite a few Americans. But because there was no panic, I had never heard of the pandemic he was talking about. Despite the panic already happening, the press seem to all be in competition with each other to see who can print the most hysterical headlines. The people… Read more »

M. B. Lamar
M. B. Lamar
Reply to  Tarstarkusz
6 months ago

Women didn’t enter the workforce in serious numbers until the 1980s. That workforce including the press.

JuJu
JuJu
6 months ago

All I know is that as of right now, the news is still reporting stories on one or two people testing positive in various areas, which feels like is no where near the amount of cases they thought we’d be at by now.

The number of positive tests / hospitalizations better increase in number quickly or people are going to get antsy sitting around in the homes in quarentine for these relatively small numbers.

Lorenzo
Lorenzo
Reply to  JuJu
6 months ago

Our Smart People have busted the world economy over a disease that, to date, has killed world wide, about 6,000 people. Meanwhile, back in the real world.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

That’s in the United States alone, friends. Mostly pneumonia and old folks (God bless them). Worldwide at least ten times that number.

https://wmbriggs.com/post/29830/

There had better be a really good explanation pretty damned quick for going nuts over the Coronavirus.

Dave
Dave
Reply to  JuJu
6 months ago

Not only has the massive spike they predicted not arrived, every news story from every outlet uses the word “soaring” to describe the latest cases or deaths.
It’s always “soaring” or “spiking”, no matter how insignificant.
Every new case is treated as if 10,000 people just died.
It really is panic politics all day, every day.
I was already disgusted by the mainstream media before this, but they have taken the hysteria to an entirely different level, and have half the population wound up so tight that the spring could burst at any moment.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Dave
6 months ago

From the globalist perspective, if the deaths and human suffering don’t materialize but our economy gets shut down and the government changes over next year, it is still a job well done and a victory for them. Remember what matters in their shabby little hearts.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Dutch
6 months ago

I gave that an upvote because it is well-reasoned, but no longer think this is to maintain globalism. The Cloud People intentionally are ditching globalism and will use a planned economy to reduce the masses to serfdom, or further to serfdom. Yet your larger point is correct. Mission accomplished.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  JuJu
6 months ago

Younger urban dwellers have started to ignore the restrictions, and suddenly we get breathless reports about how even they are in danger, maybe more in danger than anyone else!!!

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

Young people love to live “dangerous” lives, especially when it is easy to get away with it and then be able to brag about it.

Dave
Dave
6 months ago

Here in NYC, most people think this scale of shutdown is highly suspicious. Everyone is in awe of the scope of it, and no one around me has personal contact with someone who has been hospitalized for this. This scale of forced paralysis can last about 2 weeks, 4 weeks max, in a city this size before the fault lines start cracking. In my daily routine, black people seem to be the most openly suspicious of this entire event, at least on the ground here, but a lot of people are murmuring. Of course, there are plenty of true believers,… Read more »

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Dave
6 months ago

I’ve noticed the same. Otherwise government-compliant, nice liberal white types realize this isn’t adding up. That almost never happens. The nascent police state cannot be ignored.

NJ Person
NJ Person
Reply to  Dave
6 months ago

Wow! I am unsure how much the ruling classes are playing a multidimensional chess power grab or they are simply incompetent.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  NJ Person
6 months ago

Embrace the power of “both”!

M. B. Lamar
M. B. Lamar
Reply to  Dave
6 months ago

Maybe some shadowy cabal took a look at the conditions that foster Communist overthrow and wrote up the playbook du jour? I’m guessing, much like Muellergate, that the virus was intended to be much more impactful than it turned out to be… but the script was already in motion, so they are editing on the fly.

Toasty
Toasty
6 months ago

Prior to this catastrophe we already had the opiod epidemic and “deaths from despair”. The decline in real wages and the inability to form and maintain marriages have left so many with very little to live for.

There will be more white suicides from a 2nd Great Depression than there will be from direct coronavirus deaths.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Toasty
6 months ago

Yes. I initially thought the Deep State had not done a cost/benefit analysis, and then realized, duh, yes they did.

greyenlightenment
6 months ago

>Of course, I made the mistake I often point out in politics and that is I countered his claim with actual facts that anyone can look up. I pointed out that there are eight billion people on the planet. I told him more people have died from suicide in China than from this plague and China is the epicenter. My client listened, but it was quite clear he was on the side of strangers he reads on-line. Those people are much more convincing to him, because of something called abductive reasoning. —————————- 1st order thinking is predicting the outcome. the… Read more »

Major Hoople
Major Hoople
Member
6 months ago

Pretty sensible piece on the Wuhan flu from Angelo Codevilla… “Our 21st-century “developed” world, which so touts its own rationality, is now engaged in the historically unprecedented attempt to shut down most social and economic intercourse for the sake of mitigating the effects of a virus the lethality of which is far more like recent strands of the flu than that of the plague. One reason we do not know how many persons have been infected by this virus is that most infections in most people are so mild as to be unnoticed. That is also why we do not… Read more »

sirlancelot
sirlancelot
6 months ago

Was thinking about the Derbyshire quote and it dawned on me . That stuff about wanting to be well-liked by other people tends to go to the wayside after you’ve seen real death and crisis. Reality has a way of cutting through all the emotional nonsense. Death is death.

We are very fortunate to live in these modern times. It’s allowed us to ignore reality.

When death smiles at a man all a man can do is smile back

Yves Vannes
Yves Vannes
Member
6 months ago

Rationalization is not reason. Reason is that rare commodity that is dependent upon a well tested external feedback loop, experimentation & observation, for which no one can posit a better explanation. Reason, which includes all scientific theories, has a half-life. Rationalization has more to do with group cohesion and group identity than it does with how nature, which includes all of human civilization, actually works. The need for group cohesion is what drove the increase in human intelligence during Pleistocene and the Holocene. Cold Winter Theory and Adaptability to change are too far removed from immediate group needs. Primitive man… Read more »

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
6 months ago

Z writes that “in the coming months, as the public comes to terms with what has been wrought,” “suddenly, there are going to be a whole lot of people looking for the simplest and most likely explanation for what they see happening around them.” I tried to list those explanations and came up short. Then I read Greg J’s latest piece, where he criticized Z, and got his list: Globalism is bad, Global “free trade” is bad Democracy is bad Liberalism is bad, Conservatism is bad Diversity, multiculturalism, open borders, & anti-racism are bad Are these the lessons and if… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  LineInTheSand
6 months ago

Self-reliance, community reliance, trust and work with small and local, because you have the power to accept or reject at that close-in level.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  LineInTheSand
6 months ago

I think the Zman is cautioning us to not expect too much. The Revolution isn’t here, and the DOTR is beyond fantasy.

I know I’m getting pissy with him over the JQ, but he’s trying to steer a wide circle around things that drive away much-needed allies…

Because, man, are we gonna need them.

Jim Smith
Jim Smith
6 months ago

Panic or not, Greg Johnson notes that there are some salutary results to be had out of the current coronavirus conundrum (his column can be found at https://www.counter-currents.com/2020/03/how-coronavirus-will-change-the-world/). Among them: “Even if the Globalvirus stops today, we are looking at a world in which nationalism is stronger and the anti-nationalist forces of globalism, democracy, liberalism, conservatism, and the diversity cult are weaker.” And then, “After Globalvirus, charges of racism will no longer be moral kill shots.” So there’s that, assuming he’s even partially accurate.

Quicksilver75
Quicksilver75
Reply to  Jim Smith
6 months ago

The most obvious sanity check once we begin to return to normalcy is whether the unrestrained mass flows of people continue between China and the West. So much of this could have been avoided by simply shutting down flights to China in late January. There needs to be more sensitive circuit breakers to lock out traffic from epicenters of disease. Limit the downside quickly. If we don’t get at least new protocols for insta- flight restrictions from regions known for Zoonosis and outbreaks, this will have been all for naught. Don’t let politicians create the equivalent of a repeat of… Read more »

bilejones
Member
Reply to  Jim Smith
6 months ago

Johnson’s piece lost me with
“Because businessmen care only about profit”

What a dipshit.

BTP
Member
6 months ago

I dunno. If the mortality from Chinese Flu is 2% and if 70% of everyone can be expected to get it, we’re looking at 4.5 million dead. That’s on top of the normal 2.8 million we get in a regular year.

Take the mortality up to 4% and the number climbs to almost 9 million.

That’s a lotta stiffs.

The Civil War killed around 2% of everyone in the country and created profound social changes. 9 million dead is around 2.8% of our population. If that is what we are looking at, then maybe this isn’t an over-reaction.

JR Wirth
JR Wirth
Reply to  BTP
6 months ago

Modern medicine created vast amounts of grey haired people shuffling around The Villages (not saying that’s bad). Fire goes to the dry timber. Italy is a graffiti covered conversant home staffed by muslims.

james wilson
james wilson
Member
Reply to  JR Wirth
6 months ago

Yup. If Kung-flu does it’s worst it won’t do but a fraction of the damage to young people the flu of 1918 did, also a Chinese flu.

BTP
Member
Reply to  JR Wirth
6 months ago

What number of incremental dead wold concern you?

JR Wirth
JR Wirth
Reply to  BTP
6 months ago

6 million. Exactly 6 million, no less.

BTP
Member
Reply to  JR Wirth
6 months ago

Well, that’s completely absurd, JR. We could never get that many.

bilejones
Member
Reply to  JR Wirth
6 months ago

That would never, ever, be allowed to happen.
We are not allowed to count that high.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  BTP
6 months ago

BTP. The dead in the Civil War were the cream of American youth. As in countries like Russia in WWII (1920 cohort, 80% males died), the effects can be profound for society. Now with the present Chinese Flu (I like that term) we have most of the 1-2% mortality in the 60 and above range. A previous statistic I heard a week or so ago was that no one has died here under 50 yo. In Italy, it has been reported that the median age of folks dying is 80 yo. My actuary table has my predicted age of death… Read more »

BTP
Member
Reply to  Compsci
6 months ago

Compsci – I agree that the social calculus should decrease the weight of deaths among those who don’t have much life left. And we don’t really know the mortality rate in the population, overall. Italy’s rate is considerably higher, but that may well be affected by the selection of who gets the virus. So, considerable unknowns – I agree. And like someone said here, it’s possible for the situation to be serious and also to overreact to it – I agree. Still, the Chinese lost their fracking minds over this thing. Does it seem logical to you that they reacted… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  BTP
6 months ago

BTP. The numbers I speak of are also replicated in more normal countries like Japan, GB, and Korea. I will never believe anything the Chinese say or do. So in that, you are correct and I won’t dispute you. And I won’t say such numbers won’t change a bit—we have variables across countries such as population age, general heath, medical facilities, and yes, genetics. As to the Chinese government, I believe they rely heavily on an omnipotent appearance to the people and will book no challenge to such. Their first response is always to deny they may be fallible and… Read more »

Maus
Maus
Reply to  BTP
6 months ago

That’s exactly Zman’s point. Your alarmist assumptions about morbidity and mortality rates are unfounded and unsupported by historical probabilities. GIGO.

BTP
Member
Reply to  Maus
6 months ago

@Maus –

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronavirus-update-italy-mortality-rate-similar-to-chinas/#347887a26c43

Italian rate a couple weeks ago was 2.6%. Iran’s was 19%, but that’s inexplicable.

But who cares? Get yourself a little spreadsheet and play with some numbers. I get it that we are planning on paying a giant cost in economic terms for this, but presumably there is some benefit on the other side of the ledger. We don’t know what that risk/benefit is, but it matters.

Federalist
Federalist
Reply to  BTP
6 months ago

Sure, 9 million dead. Where are the bodies? That’s extremely unlikely.

Also, the dead, such as they are, are mostly old and/or sick people who probably would have died sooner rather than later without corona. The Civil War, on the other hand, resulted in a lot of deaths of young men. Certainly, the deaths of millions of old and sick people would create social change but probably much less than caused by Civil War deaths.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Federalist
6 months ago

One can read a bit regarding the Black Plague in Europe. The depopulation was a 100+ year boon for them. Nothing in my present knowledge says a few million less boomers would be catastrophic. That sounds harsh and it is, but I can say so as I am in that cohort. That’s just the way it is. Life has a finite value, we are just arguing how much.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  BTP
6 months ago

BTP the mortality rockets up at 80+; risk to under-80’s is night vs. day. Significantly more dangerous than the flu for that cohort. If you’re <60 and don't have respiratory problems, you're very likely OK, 60-80 less so, 80+ stay worried. We have around 8 million people 80+, around 28 million 60-79. Assuming 70% of them get infected, that's about 25 million. Worst-case-ish, I'm using Karlin's "Russian Roulette" fatality analogy for elderly infected, 1 in 6 fatality rate. About 4 million dead above the age of 60-ish. Not sure if he's considered a nutjob or solid on this particular question… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Exile
6 months ago

Exile. Well I won’t go as far as hailing anyone’s death. But when you run a nation, you put your “for-the-national-good” hat on. And that hat tells me a few million Boomers have less national impact than a few million workers in their prime contribution years. And if that’s the case, screwing those workers with loss of jobs and income and an increased debt burden makes me want to carefully evaluate recent government actions.

So you are spot on here.

bilejones
Member
Reply to  Compsci
6 months ago

The over 80’s are not boomers.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  bilejones
6 months ago

The fatality rate for pedantry should be 100%.

Lawdog
Lawdog
Member
Reply to  Exile
6 months ago

The morbidity is high lately.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  Compsci
6 months ago

After looking at the cruise ship stats (Z mentions somewhere in this long-ass thread) it looks like their infection rate was only 20%. If we were betting, my over-under for fatalities would be 1.5 million 60+, take the under.

JR Wirth
JR Wirth
6 months ago

One thing that will be lost on history to this is that the economy, in its last few quarters, was a tinderbox of bd debt waiting on a match. That match may very well have been that Jew war we were pushing in Iran. But orange man blinked. Thank God that deep down, he’s a coward. So it turned out to be a virus instead. This was never going to be a normal bear market, but the lockdowns have accelerated the damage. If Orange Man can use this virus as a fig leaf for all the brewing problems. “We had… Read more »

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  JR Wirth
6 months ago

Yes. I think this was orchestrated by the banksters and the Deep State, at least in part, to camouflage the impending meltdown. This is far larger than just the 2020 election. Biden obviously is just packaging and easily could be supplanted at the drop of the dime. It’s his puppetmasters we need to watch. Hell, what was coming likely was so bad this may actually have mitigated an even worse panic. Regardless, the world’s wealth has been reduced greatly for everyone other than the Cloud People, of course.

ReturnOfBestGuest
ReturnOfBestGuest
Reply to  Jack Dobson
6 months ago

I don’t think it was “orchestrated” per se. I think it’s the logical conclusion of a system corrupted by special interests (foreign and domestic) that is basically legalized bribery. Too bad we can’t elect anyone willing to stop it.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  JR Wirth
6 months ago

vmax, trolling, yesterday: when Iran sent the Saudi hijackers in 911

Epic. Epic troll. I almost got kicked out of Belmont Club for pointing out that Saudi Arabia, at that time, was the #1 state sponsor of terror, not Iran (the Narrative was being revised yet again).

People do indeed forget their errors.
The Narrative masters all.

The Zman is absolutely right that today’s Crashers will tell us they were right all along, as I’m listening to a bit of FISAgate right now.

KGB
KGB
Reply to  bilejones
6 months ago

I’ll bet he’s glad the Valencia job went south in a hurry.

JR Wirth
JR Wirth
6 months ago

Given the size and scope of the economic interventions on the table, it’s clear that Bernie dropped out because he already won. It’s a Bernie world around the corner. Our purchasing power will ultimately be berning. A lot is being exposed right now. So called “libertarians” who pretended to be for freedom of association, then spring out of the closet as germaphobes who want vast quarantine powers. So called “conservatives” proposing stock market interventions by the government because “it’s not really a free market, if it only was we wouldn’t have to do this.” Suddenly, all over the political spectrum,… Read more »

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  JR Wirth
6 months ago

Spot on.

Sperg Adjacent
Sperg Adjacent
6 months ago

This is Propaganda 101, but our side needs to take that class.

The truth is on our side, but that’s not enough. The truth has a force of its own, but the other side’s wishful thinking has a force of its own.

We have to personalize, narrativize, and religionize our thing. We have to become “propagandists for truth”–strange to say–to counter the propagandists for lies on the other side.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Sperg Adjacent
6 months ago

Yep, don’t let your virtues be used against you. We must learn the language of subtle duplicity to promote our side. Yep, sounds harsh—and a few years ago I’d argue for the high road. But a few years ago, I was a loser (of the argument) but didn’t know why. Today I know why and am willing to change tactics.

If you have better suggestions, please share.

Mark Stoval
Mark Stoval
Reply to  Sperg Adjacent
6 months ago

I am glad you see the point. Long ago as a dumb-assed tween I thought THE TRUTH would win out in the long run. Ha! Reality is that almost everything you believe is based on lies, distortion, misunderstanding, and delusion. Even the gold-standard “germ theory of disease” is not completely true; at least not as most understand it. The Z-Dude wrote an essay a while ago and asked “what if you are wrong?” What if you don’t catch the flu but already have it and the damn bugs are just waiting for your immune system to allow them to proliferate?… Read more »

Ben the Layabout
Ben the Layabout
Reply to  Mark Stoval
6 months ago

The name “Semmelweis” has been recently mentioned. You are correct to be a skeptic. Science (and medicine should be science) done correctly will use the scientific method and thus produce results reasonably close to reality. 🙂 On the other hand, even educated men (Doctors) and such can have their herd beliefs. It took the Good Dr. Semmelweis’s ideas decades to be adopted, and this in the 19th century, when science should have been well-established. In conclusion, may I say that I wash my hands of the whole affair? 😀

One of Many Georges
One of Many Georges
6 months ago

The infighting among the hard right on this issue has been pathtic. This issue has exposed so many targets among the globalists and whole anti-white cabal, and we’re still friendly-firing at each other. Shakin’ me ‘ead.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  One of Many Georges
6 months ago

I think it’s explained by Z-man…emotion trumping reason and thoughtful action. The bottom line is the DR is composed of human beings.

I believe Exile put it best yesterday, some disagreements are best left to another day. Focus on the big picture. This crisis will subside and Sailor, Cochran and others will still be on or side and useful.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
6 months ago

Wouldn’t it be convenient if we had a major re-occurrence of Corona-chan in the fall, just before the election.

Justinian’s Plague had re-occurrences for 200 years; some might find that useful.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Alzaebo
6 months ago

Politically, this far exceeds just the 2020 elections although they are a part. The Cloud People are going for all the marbles. The more I think this through, it becomes obvious they are intentionally ditching globalism. Good there, but revenge is being extracted since they have to give up their religion.

Dutch
Dutch