The hand-wringing and high-fiving over the Iran deal has me a bit puzzled. No one really knows what’s in the deal. Even the parties to the deal are at odds over what is in the deal. They only agree that the deal is an agreement to strike a deal at some point in the future. The Americans take this to mean “soon,” while the Iranians have no understanding of the concept. Persia, in one form or another, has been around for five thousand years. “Soon” is measured in decades.
That has not stopped the 24×7 clown show that is the American media from having a food fight over the deal to make a deal. The Progressives are hailing the deal as the greatest achievement of man since the wheel. Conservative Inc is condemning the deal and calling Obama Chamberlain. They have a Nazi fetish, comparing every Muslim with a bad attitude to Hitler. I watched a bit of Fox yesterday and it was clear that none of them knew more than my cat about this deal, but they were certain they were right.
That’s how things work in a democracy. The people running things employ persuasive morons to sell their position to the persuadable morons. Arguing through a megaphone leaves only one option. The side that is the loudest wins. It’s why Progressives will work free of charge for a turn at the megaphone. They get it. Own the megaphone and the people will obey you. It’s why Jeb Bush is the smart bet in 2016. Everyone in the press says he is the frontrunner.
Putting all that aside, I looked up the deal in the foreign press and the best I can tell it is an agreement that slows down Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon and lifts the sanctions on them. The fact that every energy firm on earth is lining up to make a deal with the mullahs says the sanctions are sure to be lifted, no matter what Iran does or does not do. Western governments are the tools of their rich people and their business interests. Western business loves groveling to despots. It is their natural state.
From the point of view of Iran, negotiating with the great Satan is an easy call. There is little downside. The hardliners in Iran have a lot of power, but they have no constituency outside the ruling elite. Iran’s rulers have to respect their sensibilities, but that still leaves plenty of room to deal. Since they have no intention of abandoning their nuclear program, they only stand to gain. In short, if the West is willing to accept Iran’s terms, why not make the deal?
The West has different motives. The Europeans want that natural gas pipeline from the gulf to get done. The preferred pipeline around Iran to the west or east is simply unrealistic. Afghanistan will never be pacified and the eastern route runs into the Israeli problem. The most practical route is through Iran. While the Europeans are not in love with the idea of giving the Russians more leverage over their gas supplies, they can use that as a carrot in trying to fend off Russian aggression in the Baltic states and Ukraine.
The Americans are the key and Obama really wants this deal. It is easy to forget that Obama and his cult see him as the anti-Reagan. They used to pitch him as the Progressive Reagan back in 2008. The narrative did not work out as they planned, it never does, but this deal gives them a shot to fulfill part of the fantasy. Having Obama give a speech in Tehran would be the rejection of the Reagan policy toward Iran. It would also finally heal the wound to the pride of Progressives over Carter’s handling of the hostage crisis. The subtext of the Left’s celebration right now is “Carter was right after all.”
There’s also another bit going on here. The American empire is exhausted and most in Washington know it. Trillions have been spent trying to conquer the Muslim lands and we have nothing to show for it. Conquest only works if the booty exceeds the expense. The early expansion of Rome during the Republic was financed by the booty of the conquered. Once the Romans ran out of rich people to conquer, expansion ended and decline immediately started as the economics of empire reached the point of diminishing returns.
America is a rich country with a huge reserve so the blunders into Iraq and Afghanistan may not be as costly, but they could be and the more savvy people in Washington know it. They have looked around at the Middle East and determined that the entity with the best prospects over the next several decades is Iran so they are making a deal with them. The US will back off and the Iranians will keep the oil and gas flowing. If the Iranians decide they need nukes to do it, that will be worked out when it happens.
In theory, it is not a terrible plan. America needs out of the Muslim world. Whether or not it is a good idea to turn things over to the Persians remains to be seen, but history is on their side. They have been the dominant people in the region for 5,000 years, give or take. How the rest of the region responds is an unknown, but you can be sure the Saudis are in Pakistan offering whatever it takes to get a nuke of their own. The rest of the GCC is there with them.
There are also the demographics to consider. The last three American presidents have so badly bungled things in MENA, Europe is now facing a great wave of barbarian invaders to her south. Europe is as weak today as she was prior to the Muslim conquests. Maybe even weaker. There are a billion poor people to her south ready to head north. Iranian help in rebuilding the buffer zone in the Maghreb would go a long way toward forestalling the collapse of Europe.
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The game is up and one hopes the smart people (that is not John Bolton) get it.
We only successfully executed one exit strategy during the Cold War and that was Vietnam. We left no forwarding address and they changed their phone number and things got better.
Leaving MENA, Europe and everywhere else is the way to go.
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A little known codicil to the agreement reads….
In return for the immediate lifting of sanctions, The Islamic Republic agrees to delay the announcement of their nuclear weapons capability until January 21, 2017.
It is ironic that there may be more benefits from malfeasance than a stale status quo. The “peace process” ear-worm is already working it’s way out of my brain.
Turkey, a Sunni nation – which has the largest military in that region – is not going to sit around with their thumbs up their ass while Shia Iran gets nukes.
Turkey ALREADY is sending love notes to Israel (look it up).
During the 500 years of the Ottoman Empire , the Turks learned that “managing” the Arabs was a nightmare and frankly, the Turks, as do the Persians, consider the Arabs as “untermensch.”
The Turks – who have been supporting ISIS – are fighting the Iranians via proxy forces and this will escalate given Neville Obama Chamberlain’s bending over for the Iranian Nazis.
The Arabs will now intensify their efforts to obtain nukes before Iran gets theirs, and given the natural duplicity of Arabs, they will figure out a way to use Israel to neutralize Iran.
All sides – excepting the Iranians – have rightly concluded that the USA cannot be trusted and that the USA is a totally unreliable and dishonest “ally” (ask the Ukrainians !) .
Turkey will support and encourage the Arabs and Israelis to do the dirty work and when it is all said and done, the Turks will pick up the pieces.
Erdogan of Turkey sees himself as the rightful successor of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and Djemal Pasha all rolled into one, and the first absolute ruler of the Ottoman Empire Part II (think oil and gas). When the mid east self destructs, Der Fuhrer Erdogan will step into the breach.
…
I am reminded of one of my favorite Churchill quotes about Chamberlain:
“You were given the choice between war and dishonor.
You chose dishonor – You will have war.”
There is also Churchill’s famous remark about his successor, Clement Attlee, which nicely fits Mr Kerry:
“An empty taxi arrived at 10 Downing Street and Mr Attlee emerged.
There are no more Churchill’s in the West it appears.
Only Chamberlains at best and Quislings at the worst.
Why we have surrendered the obvious superiority of Western Civilization
for the idiocy of the multi-culti I will never understand.
I suppose if you can convince people that race and sex are just ‘social
constructs’ you can convince them of anything.
On the other hand, Derbyshire is unconcerned if Iran gets the bomb.
His thinking is that if we can live with nuclear armed Pakis and Norks
then why will the Iranians be any different?
Of course if Derb is wrong…
Here’s fellow mathematician Tom Lehrer with an appropriate song for the occasion:
Tom Lehrer – Who’s Next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdtAFIl2jhc&list=RDCdtAFIl2jhc#t=0
Happy Easter.
…
I don’t like the deal, mostly because it will be used as long as possible to further exalt obama and his gang, in the short run. In the middle and long run, it doesn’t matter. There’s gonna be Sunni/Shiite war, Islam/Jewish war, and shortly, USA/somebody war. I have no idea who we’ll end up fighting next, Muslims of some variety(s), China, Russia, NorK or some as yet unrealized enemy or consortium of enemies. But I would much rather fight another nation that does not have nuclear and ballistic missile capability, unless we get cranking and figure out a functioning anti-ballistic missile defense before we wish we had done so.
The Shia are the rabble of Islam. History has shown us what happens when a rabble gains power. The greatest foreign policy blunder of recent times is not the invasion of Iraq, but the inexplicable decision to empower the Iraqi Shia that occurred later in the Bush years. This will not end well.
Iran is a wreck. Birthrates have collapsed from 7 children per female a generation ago to 1.6 today. By midcentury 35% of Iranians will be elderly dependents. The United States, the largest economy in the world on a per capita basis, is struggling with the notion of 30%. Given that Iran, with its atrocious agricultural sector and stagnant economy, imports a significant percentage of its calories, these numbers are unsustainable. Therefore, Iran must become aggressive. Like Rome, it needs to find and extract wealth elsewhere.
This is what Obama means when he says that the choice is between a deal and war. He does not mean a war instigated by Israel or the U.S. against Iran; he is talking about wars instigated by Iran against its neighbors.
If Iran wants a nuke it will get it, regardless of whether its population starves in the process: re North Korea. By lifting sanctions and integrating Iran into the world economy Obama hopes to diminish Iran’s impetus towards aggression, while creating a structure to contain and control its nuclear ambitions. The deal is more of a band aid than a cure, but there is logic to it.
The John Bolton solution is to amputate the diseased limb. Bomb the nuclear facilities while letting Iran bleed out from pointless and endless regional conflicts that don’t impact our national security. The problem is that this solution is unpalatable in a post-Christian media age that abhors Machiavellian realism and sees international diplomacy as a kind of therapeutic encounter group. This solution also entails a great deal of risk, especially to Middle Eastern shipping and the flow of oil.
Yemen imports 80% of its grain and is broke. The Saudis have built a fence to keep Yemenis out when the shit hits the fan. Egypt almost went broke and starved to death before the military kicked out the Muslim Brotherhood in order to satisfy the Saudis, who started writing checks. Putin will win in Ukraine because he is willing to underwrite that economic basket case, and the West, ultimately, is not.
Much of the Middle East is like Yemen; in fact, most of the world is. In South-East Asia only Vietnam and Thailand are net food exporters. Most of the world is on the verge of collapse, sustained only by those who profit (net food exporters), those who can afford food dependency with a vigorous modern economy (Japan) or those who write checks (Saudi Arabia). The U.S., tellingly, is all three.
My gut tells me John Bolton and the pessimists are right. Accept inevitability and move quickly and decisively. But the world abhors Spenglerian pessimism and realism – our leaders may have brains, but they don’t have stomachs. They haven’t the belly for it. Perhaps the Obama solution, which is really no solution at all, is the right one. At the very least, it gives us time to builde buffers, fences, and walls, to keep the starving hordes out, when the unavoidable moment arrives.
David Goldman is a smart guy, but I think he is looking at Iran the wrong way. What’s destabilizing the rest of the Arab world is high fertility rates. Their populations have swelled, which requires vastly more food production. That means more complexity as they both intensify their domestic production and import food from abroad. Complexity (specialization, new social models, higher levels of organization, etc) require a larger smart fraction to run it. That’s where things are breaking down. Places like Yemen, where cousin marriage is the norm, is being overwhelmed by violent pinheads. Throw in brain drain as every Arab with a clue heads for the West and you have a recipe for a scale up Detroit.
Iran and its low birth rate and low migration rate is avoiding the same fate. They have their own troubles, for sure, but nothing like what we have seen elsewhere. I’m not saying Iran will be a great strategic partner. In fact, I think this realignment will end poorly. Even by the standards of the Arab world, the Persians are considered untrustworthy. There’s a reason for it. Then there is the fact the Shia are a minority. Iran needs the Sunnis fighting one another and this deal seems to let the Sunnis band together.
The Persians hold two cards. The pan-Shia card and the pan-Indo-Iranian (Aryan in Oldspeak) card. I can see the the Persians being a stabilizing force in Mesopotamia, Yemen, and the Levant by playing the pan-Shia card (while at the same time destabilizing the Shia Arabs of the Gulf states). I can also see them being a stabilizing force among the Pashtuns, Kurds, Baluchi (barely, but one can always hope) and any other Indo-Iranian remnants out there. And the Shiites being the share croppers and tenant farmers of the Arab Islamic world, I have stopped being amazed when a substantial Shia population turns up where none had been noted before. However, the Maghreb has no large Shia populations and is ethnically almost all Arab and Berber. I am at a loss to how Iran can help stabilize the Maghreb. If Egypt goes, the only thing blocking the flood, would be a blockade the length of the Med ruthlessly turning back refugee boats. Even if Europe had the will to do that, boats full of HRW and Amnesty International film crews and camera drones would ensure that the will would evaporate in short order.
In the end, I suspect that any Persian efforts to build a system of client states in the ME and Southeast Asia will work out about as well as Ergodan’s appeals for pan-Turkic solidarity in Central Asia.
As they have encountered modernity, Europe, Russia, and China have all had their “Thirty Years War.” It is Dar al Islam’s turn now. If the prior turmoils are a guide, hundreds of millions are likely to die. Nukes will probably be used and there will be significant collateral damage outside the region. As you pointed out, we may lose all or some of Europe altogether.
Iran will be running nothing, except the Sunni’s into each others arms. Already happening. And being around for a few thousand years can have it’s drawbacks if Greece is any example.
This is one of those things where the law of unintended consequences are an improvement over the intended ones.
I don’t need to see the final deal or the fine print. All I need to know is that Iran is one of the parties. They don’t now and never have intended to keep their word.
I don’t think anyone cares if Iran holds up their end. Washington wants out and they have handed the keys to Iran. This is just the cover story. I think that’s why the French are balking at it. That and they are French, which means “dickhead” in every other language on earth. Part of the negotiations has been to allow US energy firms first crack at Tehran so French firms are squawking.
Regardless, I don’t think this is about Iran or their nuclear program. I think it is about getting out. That and the megalomania of Obama. The foreign policy elite is selling it to Obama as his crowning achievement. But, that’s just to keep him from screwing it up.
Why would anybody in their right mind not care if Iran gets the bomb? I understand getting out means lots more money for Democrats to spend domestically to keep themselves in office, but is WW3 the price they’re willing to pay? God help us.
The French Forein Minister Laurent Fabius comes from a jewish family that converted to Catholicism:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurent_Fabius#Early_life
There is nothing surprising about this, Kerry also comes from a crypto-jewish family.
Henry Ford remarked almost one hundred years ago in the ‘International Jew’ book that most of the high level International diplomacy was in the hands of jews