Mullahs, Rabbis & Priests

One of the things ignored about the outbreak of war between Iran, Israel and the United States is that it brought the great religions into conflict. The prior wars in the region have been mostly Israel against one of the Muslim countries or the United States against one of the Muslim countries. This is the first time that all three religions were in open conflict with one another. The conflict reveals some things about the state of each of the Abrahamic religions and the cultures they represent.

The cause of the war, of course, was the sneak attack by Israel, and supported by the United States, aimed at decapitating the Iranian government. Putting everything about the region aside, it was an insane act. Israel is a tiny country, while Iran is a big country, so any war between the two will be lopsided. The only way this made any sense is if Israel assumed they would get help from the United States, but even then, it was a reckless act that wreaks of desperation.

That is the part ignored in the coverage. Israel is a country with very serious structural problems right now. The demographics are the main driver. While Israel fertility is above replacement, it is largely due to the ultra-orthodox (Haredi). Their fertility rate is a whopping 6.48 children per woman. Meanwhile, the Westernized, cosmopolitan population has a below replacement TFR. This demographic revolution is stressing Israeli politics at every level.

There is also the issue of Israeli identity, which was born out of the conflict with the British and then flowered in the endless conflicts with the Arabs. To be an Israeli means to be the David in a perpetual fight against a Goliath. The trouble is the supply of Goliaths is down to one, Iran. In many respects, the Israeli war against Iran is as much about the Israeli need for an enemy as anything else. Israel needs the fear of Persia to keep its population from turning on each other.

We see something similar with the United States. Generations of reckless disregard by the parasitic ruling elite have left America drained of its asabiyyah. The political class senses this, even if they lack the intellect to understand it, so they are always looking for an enemy to unite against. Notice the lack of dissenting voices in Washington as Trump stumbled through the crisis. They were just happy to once again have a common enemy to justify their existence.

As an aside, this may explain some of the Israel worship. The actors hired to fill out the roles in our political theater no longer wave the flag or speak in traditionally patriotic terms, because none of them believe in the ideals of America. Many of them hate those ideals as being white. That leaves a great void. For many, filling that with a bizarre worship of Israel and Jewish people is the answer. Hollow men will fill their souls with anything to avoid hearing the sound of their hollowness.

Putting that aside, this crisis and the proxy war with Russia all have the feel of a bad remake of a classic film because the United States is no longer a nation of people who optimistically look to the future. It is a land of old people and foreigners who fear what may lie ahead. As with Israel, the old gods now haunt the people. Christianity in America is in a shambles and the American ideology that grew out of American Protestantism has curdled into a collection of resentments.

The United States is now a land of priests, with no natural authority to proselytize to the rest of the world. The instinct to lecture remains, but the purpose and authority are gone, so we get men with no moral authority telling the rest of the world how they should and should not act. Notice how much they love saying, “Iran should never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.” It makes them feel like it is a Sunday long ago and they are in the pulpit of a packed church.

Then we have Iran, which for half a century has been the symbol of radical Islam for most of the West. The Iran of today was born at the very beginning of the Islamic spiritual awakening that has defined the region ever since. Even though Iran is a Shia society, Shia Islam is a minority sect within Islam, it has been viewed as the center of political Islam, largely due to its size. Iran also has a unique identity within the Arab world, considering itself Persian rather than Arab.

Iran has always been the most sophisticated society within the Arab world, due to its history and its religion. Shia Islam is like high church Protestantism while Sunni Islam is like low church Protestantism. Within Shia Islam, you do not get to call yourself an Imam just because you read the Koran. It takes years of study and mentorship before you join the clerical class. Like low church Protestantism, any Sunni can set up shop as a holy man and start developing a following.

Like Israel and the United States, the old gods are starting to fade within Iran, as the population settled into modernity. The revolutionary fervor is long gone, as most of that generation are now dead. The religious fervor has now settled into a cultural and political framework that defines an increasingly modern population. Like all modern people, Iran has seen a collapse in fertility. At the start of the revolution, it had a TFR of 6.38 and now the TFR stands at 1.68.

Like Israel and the United States, Iran is now suffering from an identity crisis as it faces the challenges brought on by modernity. The religious structures remain in place, which are supposed to give meaning and purpose to life, but the population is struggling to remember the authority upon which those structures are built. In the cities, people care more about convenience than Islam. The same cancer eating away at the West is eating away at Iranian society.

This is why the great war between the three major religions looked like a ridiculous pantomime of past conflicts. The audience was expected to sing along with the familiar tunes but was too old or too disinterested to get into it. The actors themselves are too exhausted to put on more than a token effort. The three great civilizations as represented by the three great religions are exhausted. Both sense the future excludes them, but that is too terrifying to consider.


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Then What?

Note: Behind the green door, there is a post about the classic film The Grapes of Wrath, a post about the neocon forever wars, and the Sunday podcast. On the Substack side of the green door, there are now weekly gardening videos. Subscribe here or here.


One of the critical questions in any strategy is “Then what?” This question must be asked with every proposed move and counter move. The question is both a reminder and an assumption that the other players will react to your move. Good strategy focuses on the range of possibilities to each move and is prepared for them. Bad strategy just assumes the move will work and good things will flow from it. This is often referred to as the lack of second-order thinking.

For the last five years this has been at the center of American politics. The regime has clearly lost the ability to ask, much less answer the question, “Then what?” The war in Ukraine is in its fourth year because no one in the West could bother to ask the question, much less answer it. President Trump now has himself in a terrible jam because no one on his team thought to ask this question when they were plotting the Pearl Harbor style sneak attack on Iran.

It does not appear that any of them asked the question when planning the operation against the Iranian bunker facilities. By the looks of it, they settled on this attack because they assumed it would satisfy the Israelis, satisfy the crazies in Washington screaming for blood and provide an off-ramp in the conflict. Signaling to Iran that it was a one-time thing was supposed to induce them back to the bargaining table or at least encourage them to seek a cease fire in the war.

The assumed answer to the magic question was all the good things the administration needs to happen in order to wriggle free from this trap. Perhaps sensing that it was not the magic bullet, they immediately started to beg China to pressure Iran into not closing the Strait of Hormuz. Presumably they asked the Russians to do the same thing, as the Iranian foreign minister is in Moscow this week. Closing the strait would bring the whole thing crashing down on Trump’s head.

While the Iranians are prepared to close the strait, they have not done so, but they continue to send missiles at Israel and Israel is firing back. It is clear that the Iranians are not going to come back to the bargaining table, and they have no intention of ending the war with Israel. Of course, Israel is now demanding more strikes because it was never about Iranian nukes for them. It was always about inducing the United States into a ground war to topple the Iranian government.

President Trump is justifiably getting savaged by his voters, but in fairness to him he now lives in a town that operates like Jonestown. Everyone worships Israel or at least pretends they worship Israel. It is beyond creepy to see everyone in Washington act like Israel is the god of the world. Some sort of mass psychosis has swept the ruling class where they are convinced that their purpose in life is to serve the needs of this flyspeck of a country halfway around the world.

That just makes the crisis worse for the Trump administration. Even if they can have a moment of clarity and see the danger, they are limited in their options. If they do no more than provide support for Israel, they remain entangled in a war of attrition, while the crazies scream for blood, holding the domestic agenda hostage. They cannot make a deal with Iran, as the Israel lobby will never permit it. The only way out is to end the Israel lobby and that means tanks in the streets.

That is the thing about the question at the start. It not only forces the person answering it to think about the possible reactions from the other players, but it forces them to think clearly about the other players. If the Trump people had a realistic understanding of Israel and the Israel lobby, they would know they are dealing with hostile aliens who look at the United States as a Walmart during a ghetto riot. They would know how to treat them as adversaries, rather than allies or clients.

The same can be said for the approach to Ukraine. That has been pushed off to the side, but the neocons have not gone away. As things reach a critical point in the war this autumn, they will be back to extort the Trump admin. Given the duplicity of the Republican Party, the big, beautiful bill will probably still be held hostage in the Senate come the autumn, so it will be another round of extortion in order to give the neocons what they want in the war against Russia.

In a way, the crisis engulfing the Trump administration in the realm of foreign policy is a microcosm of what faces America. The MAGA movement finally got their man into the White House with the clear support of the public. There is a team in place that can execute the domestic agenda. Then what? The answer so far has been a revolt in the judiciary against the Trump agenda, the Republican Party holding his legislative agenda hostage, and the usual suspects subverting his foreign policy.

Cancer does not leave the body just because the body voted to live. The cancer must be removed and that is the answer to the question, “Then what?” That appears to be impossible within the current rules, which brings us back to the question that seems to haunt this age. The current crisis is a gordian knot that cannot be untied within the rules of the system, so then what? For now, the Trump people do not have the answer, but the answer is there, just waiting its turn.


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Trump’s China Syndrome

One of the reliable bits of news that has emerged from the Iran crisis is that at some point, the Trump team radically changed the terms of the deal. Initially, they were willing to do the deal Iran signed with Obama, with some minor changes. The main change was to remove the time limit on its enforcement. Otherwise, Iran was close to agreeing to a deal with the Trump administration. Then out of the blue the Trump team made new demands and soon after we get the Israel sneak attack.

If you listen to what Trump says, he is all over the map, but the one thing he has been repeating recently is the demand that Iran give up all nuclear technology, even for medical uses, and abandon its missile program. This has been joined by a new demand for unconditional surrender. What he means by that last bit is a bit hazy as countries tend not to surrender when they are holding their own. They never surrender to a country that they are not currently fighting.

That is another consistent theme with the Trump people. They keep slipping up when they talk about the war. Instead of “they”, as in Israel or Israel and Iran, Trump people will say “we”, as in Israel and the United States. Then they will correct themselves or use some weasel words. Ted Cruz made this blunder when talking with Tucker Carlson and has been squirming ever since. This hints at the fact the Israel sneak attack was part of a larger strategy by the White House.

The question no one asks is why the administration would want a war with Iran when it brings so many risks. The closest we get is the chanting of the line, “Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.” Even if you accept that moral assertion, Iran was ready to sign over its nukes. The deal they were willing to sign was by all accounts a comprehensive agreement. Even if the negotiations were a ruse, to setup the sneak attack, why would Trump want this?

The most popular answer floating around is they did not want a war. They thought this Peal Harbor style sneak attack would work and by work it would cause the regime to collapse or immediately sue for peace. The Japanese thought the same thing, supposedly, so it makes some sense. Now that Iran is firing missiles at Israel, with no signs of letting up, the White House has a problem. They either go up the escalatory ladder or risk looking weak by taking a deal.

That is possible, but there is another possibility. When it comes to foreign policy, Trump has had one obsession and that is China. When he came down the escalator ten years ago, he was talking about China ripping us off. People forget that this was going to be his main issue until he stumbled upon immigration. When his comments about immigration caught fire, he became a hawk on immigration, but China was always right there at the top of his agenda.

Some say he has an Israel obsession, which is true. He seems to worship Jewish people, a common folk religion in Washington. In his first term, however, he delivered nothing of value to Israel. He was adamant about staying out of new wars in the Middle East and even wanted to close the bases in Syria and Iraq. Starting a war now, less than six months into his do-over term, makes no sense. The country is against war and his base will revolt if he goes to war.

Of course, if he signs off on an attack and Iran crumbles, then he looks like a genius to the average American who is incapable of thinking about what comes next. They will flip back to watching sports while muttering about how Trump wins again. Like it or not, that is how things work in American politics. On the other hand, if he signs off on a strike and it results in more escalation, he risks becoming George Bush. He would be worse than Bush, as people actually trusted Trump.

This raises another angle to this. China is deeply involved with Iran. They have signed a half trillion-dollar investment deal with Iran. They own 80% of the South Pars gas field, part of the biggest gas deposit on earth. They have just completed a railway that links China to Iran. Trains from Xi’an, the capital of the Chinese province of Shaanxi, started arriving at the Aprin Dry Port near Tehran in late May. All industrial and military goods will now go from China to Iran, bypassing the US navy.

The immediate effect of this is it allows Iran to reach the global economy without having to navigate around the American blockade. This allows Iran to get around the sanctions regime that is central to American policy. It would also make Iran a key cross dock for trade between the region and Asia. Of course, the big effect is it makes BRICS a big player in the region, challenging American hegemony. China, Russia, and India can now easily do business with the region.

That may be the reason for the change in approach by the White House. That railroad begins operation and all of a sudden, they change the terms of the deal to something they know Iran can never accept. This is, ironically enough, the same scheme the Biden people used to induce a war in Ukraine. Notice that the West is still demanding Russia surrender as part of their “negotiations.” The best way to get and keep a war is to demand unconditional surrender.

Another thing that supports this theory is that Trump is a transactional guy who thinks about everything in terms of money. He would understand right away the economic aspects of this China – Iran relationship. It is a threat to American control of the energy markets, something that Trump understands well. He looks at BRICS as part of China’s plan to supplant the United States as the global economic hegemon. A war with Iran, therefore, would appeal to him.

There is also the fact that Trump seems to think he can peel countries away from China in order to isolate her. He has flat out said this regarding Russia. He has convinced himself that he will talk Putin into abandoning China in exchange for some empty words from Trump and maybe a White House visit. He probably thinks he can pry Iran lose from China as well, either by force or by threats. It worked with Panama, so he could think the same trick will work with Iran.

In the end, this looming war with Iran looks more like the start of a war with China, rather than just a war for Israel. The Israelis are getting clobbered with missile strikes, so if Trump were acting out of love for Israel, he would not be escalating with Iran, threatening a new war in the region. No doubt Israel is happy to participate for cynical reasons, but the real driver is probably the China issue. It has been his obsession since he came down the escalator and remains so now.


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Time Dilation

Note: Last night, America’s two leading moderate voices held a special episode to discuss the looming war with Iran. You can listen here.


One of the things skipped past in the flurry of happenings over the last ten days is that the Trump administration has abandoned Ukraine. Pete Hegseth said as much in Congressional testimony where he said there were no plans to send Ukraine additional weapons or ask Congress for more money. At the G7 in Canada, Trump blew off a meeting with Zelensky without saying a word. The reason given was the crisis in the Middle East, which is now the priority.

For the Iran hawks, this is being greeted as good news as they assume this means Trump is onboard with their war schemes, but it may simply be the result of the clash between short term and long-term thinking. Like the this war scheme, Project Ukraine was a short-term operation. All involved assumed it would be a quick and glorious victory, but it turned into a long grind. The American empire does not do long grinds, so it is onto the next military project.

Project Ukraine did not become a long grind by accident. It was made so through deliberate actions by the Russians. Once they realized in 2022, after the war started, that the West was never going to negotiate, they quickly reorganized themselves and their war plans to turn it into a long grind. They correctly surmised that if they wanted a long-term solution to NATO, they needed to win a war of attrition with NATO, so they made Ukraine into a war of attrition.

It is why Trump’s deal making with Russia failed. He assumed that the people who got everything about Russian wrong to this point were right that Russia would jump at a short-term solution, so they used that as leverage. What he learned was that those people advising him were all wrong and Russia was unwilling to take a short-term deal like a ceasefire or a quick peace. Trump has dropped normalization talks with Russia because he sees that he has no cards to play.

Project Ukraine is an important lesson that no one in Washington is ready to grasp as the empire stumbles its way into another Middle East quagmire. The same people who were entirely wrong about Project Iraq two decades ago turned out to be wrong about Project Ukraine, but the results are much worse. The empire was eventually able to subdue Iraq and install a neutral government, but it came with long-term costs that continue to drain the imperial coffers.

The lesson of Iraq should have been that there are no short-term solutions to long-term problems and long-term problems come with long-term costs. People forget that the war with Iraq was touted as the solution to the Middle East problem. Even if it did not result in regime change in Iran, it would sufficiently terrify them that they would cease to be a problem as far as Washington was concerned. Twenty-five years on and Trump is on the edge of becoming George Bush.

We are getting the flickers of this gap between the long-term and the short-term in the war between Israel and Iran. When Washington and Tel Aviv cooked up the Pearl Harbor style sneak attack, it had two base assumptions. They assumed it would work and by work it would collapse the Iranian regime. There was no thought to what would happen after the sneak attack. There was no thought to what could happen if it did not work exactly as the planners promised.

Note that the Iranians have turned this into a long-term issue. They have more missiles and drones than Iran has attack missiles and air defense. Iran is ten times the size of Israel, so they can take a lot of damage and survive. Just as Ukraine found itself in a numbers game that favored the Russians, Israel is facing a similar math problem with the Iranians now. It is why they are demanding Trump join the war. They cannot overcome the math of their war with Iran.

If you can bear listening to the cries for blood from the usual suspects in Washington, what you hear is a demand for quick action. They insist that the Iranian regime is fragile, and it just needs to be pushed over in order to get regime change. These are the same people who said the same things about Iraq in the Bush years and said the same things about Russia just a few years ago. There is no talk of what comes next, because like Ted Cruz, they are incapable of such thinking.

What we are seeing with Iran is the same time dilation that has haunted the American empire since the end of the Cold War. Perhaps it is the result of foreign policy being run by short-term visitors or perhaps it is the nature of democratic societies. No matter the cause, America operates in a world where the clocks always speed forward to the desired result. In the rest of the world, clocks move at their own pace and often that pace is very slow and deliberate, as we see with Ukraine.

An attack on Iran assumes the clocks speed up, but that is unlikely. For all its problems, Iran is a stable society. It has survived fifty years of American sanctions. It survived a monstrous war against Iraq. They think in the long term and seem to have been thinking for a long time about what will happen if America makes war on them. Victory over Iran means a long, bloody fight, one where the clocks move slowly. What would come after that is decades of blood and treasure.

Ironically, the clock is now ticking on the Trump admin. They can take the bait and fall into another grinding war of attrition. That is the quick answer and the way the trap has been constructed by the trap makers. They want to speed up time for Trump so he cannot wait for better choices. On the other hand, they can just wait to see if better choices emerge over time. In Trump’s office, there are two clocks. One moves normally and the other races forward. Which one does he choose?


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The American Alcibiades

Note: Behind the green door, there is a post about the film Accountant 2, a post about our rulers love of narrative, and the Sunday podcast. On the Substack side of the green door, there are now weekly videos. Subscribe here or here.


One of the features of the Trump era has been the sense of chaos that seems to surround everything about the man. Whether as a candidate, as president or as the hero in the fight against the villains of Washington, there is always a whirlwind of action around him that makes understanding it difficult. We now see this in his foreign policy which looks more like a game of flipping over tables and smashing things than a coherent strategy to advance national interests.

The most recent example is the caper to regime change Iran in the middle of negotiations to end the half century cold war with them. Despite the mountain of lies, it is clear that the plan was to decapitate the Iranian government, attack the nuclear facilities and then usher in a regime change. Israel went after military leaders, political leaders, and the top nuclear scientists. They also attacked what they thought were their key nodes in their air defense system.

Despite Trump’s denials, it is clear that the Trump admin knew about this scheme from the start and helped make it possible. When it looked like it was successful, Trump posted about how negotiations were just a ruse to get the Iranians into a false sense of security, but he changed gears once it was clear the scheme failed. He also claimed to have vetoed the killing of Ali Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader of Iran, but that is just damage control after the fact.

As an aside, if you want to get a sense of who really runs American foreign policy, look at the parallels between this sneak attack on Iran and the sneak attack on the Russian strategic bombers. Both used pre-programmed drones launched from trucks. Both used negotiations as a ruse. Both served the interests of those who wanted to halt negotiations with the targeted party. In both of these cases, we see the same fingerprints, but who belongs to those fingerprints is not clear.

That aside, the plan failed. After the initial shock, Iran was able to quickly respond to the attacks with what has been a very effective missile campaign. They also got their air defense system back online and now Israel jets have to operate well outside of their range, which limits what Israel can attack inside Iran. Israel, of course, is lobbying Trump to attack Iran, but so far, he has resisted. The rumor at the moment is that Israel is quietly asking for a truce.

To make things more complicated, Chinese aircraft are landing in Iran, presumably with missiles for Iran. These could also be North Korean missiles. China is Iran’s biggest customer for energy products. China is an 80% owner in the South Pars gas field, which is part of the North Dome field, the biggest on earth. Of course, Russia has a security agreement with Iran and is no doubt providing intelligence for Iranian missile strikes on key targets inside Israel.

On the surface, this looks like a disaster. There is no reason for Iran to do a deal with Washington after this betrayal of basic diplomatic norms. There is no reason for Iran to take the deal on officer, if they decided to come back to the table. They have leverage now, so they will demand much more from Trump. The Israel lobby is now in crisis as the options here are terrible. If Trump green lights an attack on Iran’s nuclear bunkers, we probably get a regional war that America cannot afford.

The Israel lobby does not care about the damage done to America or the American people, but they do care about Israel. What the weekend revealed is that the vaunted Israel air defense system is a paper tiger. Iran was able to overload it and is now hitting targets inside Israel at will. A regional war could very well mean the end of Israel or at least turning Tel Aviv into Gaza. Expect to hear the usual big mouths like Lindsay Graham demanding a truce in the air war this week.

Attacking Iran brings other risks. It is clear that Iran can reach out and touch American assets in the region. That includes naval assets. Trump called off the operation against the Houthis due to both the cost and the risk to American assets. Iran is orders of magnitude more powerful than Yemen. Then you have the American bases in Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. There are secret bases that do not appear on any map in Saudi Arabia where the U.S. military operates.

Then there is the elephant in the room. If Trump escalates, the Iranians will probably close the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis will shut off access to the Red Sea. That means a third of the world’s oil supply stops flowing. What Trump has to ponder, therefore, is whether this is worth gas lines and perhaps rationing. Disrupt the flow of energy and the rest of the world gets involved in this war. The rest of the word does not care about the psychological wellbeing of the Israelis.

Rational people look at this and conclude that Trump will do the rational thing and avoid taking the bait, while working to get a truce. Rational people forget that a rational actor would never have signed off on the sneak attack. Two data points does not make a pattern, but Trump has signed off on two Pearl Harbor style schemes in just the few months he has been in office. This morning brings news that an “armada” of refueling planes left for the Middle East.

Note also that Stealth Bombers have been positioned at Diego Garcia for months, which is from where an attack on Iran’s nuclear bunkers would be launched. These are the planes that can drop the bunker busters that could possibly get to the underground facilities housing Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has been talking about Iran and Israel maybe getting a truce deal done. Given Trumps habit of attacking the people with whom he is negotiating, an attack in Iran is probably imminent.

Regardless of whether Trump throws gasoline on this fire or not, the region is now in chaos and that seems to please Trump. Not only that, but his base of support in the United States is sharply divided. The old people who let Fox News do their thinking are waving the flag and screaming for blood. The younger side takes the phrase “America First” literally, so they oppose another pointless war of choice. Trump is now blasting people like Tucker Carlson over this situation.

That seems to be the goal of the Trump chaos. Another feature of the Trump era is that he never gains anything from the chaos. In this situation, he has the Israel Lobby on their heels, so he could get an Iran deal done that ends this issue for good. There is no reason to think he will take advantage of the opportunity. It is why the way to bet is on an attack this week. It is the one option guaranteed to create more chaos, which seems to be the narcotic of Trump’s choosing.

Perhaps this is just a symptom. Trump as the Mule from the Asimov novel could be what happens at the end of democratic empire. Athens also suffered from a mercurial figure at the end of their empire. Alcibiades, known for his personal ambition, ego and unpredictable behavior, was a key figure in the downfall of Athens. Perhaps that is what we are seeing with Trump. He is the American Alcibiades presiding over the final phase of the American empire.


If you like my work and wish to donate, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar or a Substack subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars through the postal service to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 1047 Berkeley Springs, WV 25411-3047. Thank you for your support!


Blackrockistan

Note: Tonight at 8:15 EDT, I will be on with Paul Kersey, Peter Brimelow and Harrison Smith from Infowars to talk about remigration. I may also announce, with a great flourish, that I am officially off the Trump Train. Tune in here.


A question that is never asked in official circles, or even much in unofficial ones, is why Western leaders seem so desperate for war? For the last three-plus years, they have been scheming to start a direct war with Russia. The rhetoric has been so crazed it suggests they have a death wish. It is not just Russia. They want war with China and Iran, which would mean a regional war in the Middle East. The one thing the West seems sure about is the need for a big war.

Of course, given the increasing separation between official narratives and reality, many are sure they are at war. The current Prime Minister of Britain is telling his party that the country is now at war and must mobilize the country. Emmanuel Macron has spent the last year flitting about the continent as if he is leading Europe in a war against Russia, despite the fact the official position of his government, and NATO, is they have no direct role in the Ukraine war.

There is a Little Rascals quality to Europe at the moment. None of these countries have an army capable of fighting beyond their borders and many could not defend themselves against a well-armed militia. Europe has relied on the American military for so long most have forgotten how to fight. Instead, like the old television program, they dress up like big boys and girls and put on a show. Watching the girl bosses of the EU make threats is as absurd as the old television show.

That does explain one reason for the rhetoric. To be a European head of state is to be powerless, other than the power to put on a show. France, for example, relies on the EU to control its economy, trade policy and immigration policy. NATO decides what France can do with its shrinking military capability. The typical American governor has more sovereign authority than the head of France. While not entirely ceremonial, this is the direction for the “leaders” of Europe.

If you are allowed to do only one thing after reaching the highest office in your country’s political system, that is the thing you will do, and with gusto. Keir Starmer, for example, understands that the Bank of England overthrew the Tory government and put Labour in charge of parliament with a minority of public support. Every EU leader knows the EU rigs elections and overthrows governments. Every European “leader” knows he is an actor hired to play a role, so they play the role.

That gets to who is doing the hiring. Starmer is in office because the Bank of England saw him as a suitably complaint puppet. Macron remains in power, despite losing the last election, because Blackrock wants him in power. Germany’s new puppet is in charge for the same reason. BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager controlling more than nine trillion dollars. That means it has real power, the power to pick who wins elections and who controls public policy.

Blackrock invested billions in Ukraine prior to the war, because it believed Ukraine would fall into the Western orbit, which would mean Blackrock would control trillions in natural resources. The reason the Republicans were suddenly desperate to get sixty billion in new money to Ukraine after the 2022 midterm victory was to get Blackrock and others some of their money out of Ukraine. The proxy war with Russia was sold to the bankers as an opportunity to loot Eurasia again.

Now that the war has turned against the West, the rhetoric has become shriller for political reasons, but also as a way to sell arms. Blackrock and other massive private asset holders have large stakes in companies like Raytheon, Lockheed, Rheinmetall and many other arms makers. Another reason the political class of Europe is carrying on as if Genghis Khan is about to cross the Dnieper is they think it builds popular support for rebuilding their militaries.

There is another element to this. The Western oligarchy is based on the assumption that the United States is the global bank and the global mint. It performs this dual role by controlling the global reserve currency, which is made possible by controlling the most important global assets. To this point, that was made possible by controlling oil via the petrodollar agreement with OPEC. If energy must be priced in dollars, the demand for dollars can never be challenged.

The technological revolution, which is largely responsible for creating this new oligarchical class, has also undermined this arrangement. There are now other things in great demand to meet the needs of technology. Simply skimming from the oil trade is no longer enough. America needs computing power and that means energy production, which means a massive increase in energy consumption, along with the consumption of other natural resources needed for big computing.

The trillions in natural resources underneath the Donbas were seen as a quick and easy answer to the Western hunger for natural resources. Of course, it was just the first domino in the eventual exploitation of the rest of Eurasia. The technological revolution has turned the West, particularly America, into a ravenous beast that must find new sources of food to maintain itself. Big Tech and Big Finance have created a vampire economy that is always looking for a new neck.

They say all wars are banker’s wars and this has been true since the spread of popular government in the 18th century. Once who controls the assets is divorced from how those assets are used, there is no longer any control over how those assets are used by the political system. We see that in the modern West. The people vote, politicians are picked to fill the offices, but policy is made by those who own the assets because the Golden Rule states, the men with the gold make the rules.


If you like my work and wish to donate, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar or a Substack subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars through the postal service to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 1047 Berkeley Springs, WV 25411-3047. Thank you for your support!


The Odd Squad

Note: This is the five year anniversary of the death of George Floyd, peace be upon him, so I will be part of a Twitter space discussing the life and legacy of one of our nation’s greatest heroes. You can listen here.


The general assessment of Trump 2.0 so far, by those inclined to support him, is that his domestic operation is doing great, but his foreign policy operations is a work in progress, to be generous. It is still early, and the primary focus should be on domestic policy, but foreign policy is not unimportant. Thirty years of horrific domestic policy has often been justified on foreign policy grounds, so they are not entirely divorced from one another.

The reason the Trump foreign policy operation is struggling can be understood by looking at the team assigned to implement his policy. The top foreign policy job was given to Marco Rubio, a guy with zero experience in this area, other than sitting on Senate committees. A pawn of the Israel lobby, he also sided with the neocons for his entire career in the Senate. During the transition, this nomination was counted as the worst of Trump’s cabinet picks.

Rubio seems to have had some sort of epiphany when it comes to politics that went unnoticed as he no longer sounds like a neocon. In fact, he sounds like a critic who has been reading dissident websites. His commentary on South Africa, for example, is the sort of stuff that used to get your bank account closed. Even so, Rubio is without experience, so he is learning on the job, a job that traditionally sets the tone for the administration’s foreign policy approach.

Things get more unconventional with the national security team. Mike Waltz was the National Security Advisor until it was revealed that he was playing footsy with far-left radicals in the media. Then there are Michael Anton and Sebastian Gorka as Deputy National Security Advisors. Both are best described as media personalities with close ties to the neocons. Eli Lake loves Anton and Lake is firmly in the paranoid anti-Russia social network of neocon media activists.

Then you have Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, two people with no experience in their areas of responsibility and zero experience running big, complicated organizations. Gabbard’s claim to fame is breaking with Washington on Syria and her party on social issues. Hegseth was a popular Fox News star with unconventional opinions on the military. These are Trump’s most out of left field foreign policy picks.

The two defining features of Trump’s foreign policy team is a general lack of experience on foreign policy issues, and they have earned the trust of Donald Trump. That last part gets attacked by the media, but it is important if you are looking to redefine and revitalize the foreign policy community. Trump needs spear catchers who will do what must be done to implement policy. What sunk Trump’s first term were all the people thinking they could use Trump to boost their career.

The main problem is the experience. This is not always a bad thing as fresh eyes are certainly needed in all of these areas. Old hands would never think to ask why things are done the way they are done, especially in how information is selected and filtered before it is presented to the President. The intelligence people in Trump’s first term gave him the mushroom treatment. Most of the time, he was left with choices he did not want but was forced to pick from them.

The real issue here is these people are not just tasked with implementing Trump’s vision of a new foreign policy, but they have to figure out what that is and then figure out if they agree with it. It is not all that clear if Trump’s vision is merely dovish within the context of the standard Wilsonian model that has dominated America since Wilson or if it is a rejection of that framework entirely, in favor of the 19th century conservative approach embodied by the famous quote from John Quincy Adams.

Added to this is the fact that it is not all that clear if most of the people have thought much about this until this point. Seb Gorka is mostly known for being rude to people on Twitter and being a guest on conservative chat shows. Michael Anton is best known for one essay in 2016 and his love of fashion. Tulsi Gababrd is the only member of the team that has offered original thoughts on foreign policy. For the most part, Trump’s team is a blank slate when it comes to foreign policy.

This may be a good thing, as at least he has a team that is open to questioning the status quo, even if they have not formulated an alternative. The foreign policy community is stuffed to the gills with people who have been carefully vetted by the Israel lobby and the neocons. Trump had little choice but to reach outside of that world for people he could trust and who would try to think for themselves. The result is an odd squad of neophytes and eccentrics.

It remains to be seen if this works but it explains why foreign policy is so uneven at the start of this term. It also explains why Trump has been so reliant on Steven Witkoff, as his personal emissary. He may be the one guy who understands what Trump is thinking with regards to foreign policy. There again, we see a man with zero experience in foreign affairs, outside of business dealings. Like everyone else in the Trump foreign policy team, he is learning on the job.

This may explain why the Russians are willing to talk to the Trump people. They see the effort to break from old patterns. It may also be why the Iranians have agreed to talks with Trump people, despite Trump breaking their deal in the first term. People who spend a lot of time studying American politics sense an opportunity to break from the past with regards to dealing with the Americans. It also explains why the Russians are so patient with the Trump team.

Again, it is too soon to know how this ends. It is an odd collection of people held together by a desire to head in a new direction, even if they have no clue as to which direction they will be heading. Perhaps for now a desire to break from the past is enough to get the ball rolling. If they managed to avoid being outflanked by the Europeans and subverted by the Washington establishment, they might finally create a plausible alternative to Wilsonian democracy.


If you like my work and wish to donate, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar or a Substack subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars through the postal service to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 1047 Berkeley Springs, WV 25411-3047. Thank you for your support!


Keepin’ It Real

Note: Tonight Paul and I will be taking a victory lap on the Covid topic, so use the time to think about how you will congratulate us on being right about everything. You can tune in on Twitter, YouTube or Rumble.


The first four months of the Trump restoration have exceeded everyone’s expectations for no other reason than it has shifted the conversation. The bad guys are still battling everything in the courts and Congress, but unlike the first time, Trump seems to have a plan, and he has been aggressive in executing it. As a result, he has been setting the agenda rather than the bad guys. The one place where he is failing is with Ukraine, where it looks like he has painted himself into a corner.

When Trump came to power, the choices with regards to Ukraine were to either abandon the whole thing and get blamed for tanks in Kiev or continue the Biden policy and get blamed for tanks in Kiev. To his credit he tried to shake things up by talking directly to the Russians and bypassing the snakes in the foreign policy community while doing it, in an effort to reset the board. Clearly, the snakes and the bad guys did not see that coming, so they were unprepared for it.

The problem is that the facts on the ground have not changed, so there is no deal Trump can make with the Russians to end the war. Zelensky will never do any peace deal as that means the end of him. The nationalists in Ukraine will never accept a deal, which is why Zelensky cannot do a deal. The Europeans seem convinced that peace in Ukraine means the withdraw of America from Europe, so they are fighting like hell to keep the war going, even as it harms their positions.

Now it seems clear that the Russians have understood from the start that Trump was never willing to break with the Europeans or take on the crazies in Washington who created the Ukraine mess. They were happy to talk with him, but they knew there was nothing he could offer them, as he was simply unwilling or maybe unable to do what is necessary to get a deal done with them. That means peace comes when Ukraine can no longer fight and the Russians dictate terms.

That is probably why Trump is so angry. He probably understood his dilemma, but for some reason thought he could charm his friend Putin into yielding on some things in order to get a deal done. This was a serious error. Russians have been known for centuries as unyielding negotiators. They never trade what they have for something they already have or are about to have. They always deal from their interests, never personal vanity or out of a need to get along.

The best example of this is the Hitler-Stalin pact. Stalin was a Bolshevik, and he detested the fascists, but Russia was not ready to fight the Nazis, so Stalin did a deal to buy time, even if it meant doing a deal with the hated Nazis. Stalin was also willing to make deals with the capitalists, because it served Russian interests. The point here is even at the peak of their ideological fervor, the Russians still did diplomacy like Russians, which means in the interest of Russia.

For some reason Trump and Witkoff seemed to have thought they could talk the Putin government out of being Russian, but now they are finding out that their charm offensives changed nothing. The position of the Russians has not changed with regards to Ukraine and the West. They want Ukraine as a demilitarized, deradicalized neutral state with no connection to NATO. They will get that at the bargaining table, or they will get that on the battlefield.

Trump also suffers from the fact that the rest of the world no longer trusts Washington, no matter who is in the White House. The thing many Americans struggle with when it comes to foreign policy is that the same people who have been lying to us for decades have been lying to the world. The people who ran the Biden admin were not suddenly honest when it came to diplomacy. The American political class lies about everything to everyone, even themselves.

In a way, Trump and his team are the new management of a company that used to be a dominant player in the market but after years of mismanagement is now in trouble, which is why there is new management. They can go to their customers and promise things will change, but the customers are under no illusions that new faces will solve the problems of the company. In fact, the new promises after years of broken promises just raise more suspicions about the company.

That is probably part of Trump’s frustration. He is being treated by world leaders as a guy who lies all the time, when he is not the guy who did the lying. It is the other side of being an American. There are good things that are associated with being an American, things like confidence and risk taking. The other side of the coin is the bad things, like dishonestly and unreliability. It is why the only thing worse than being the enemy of America is being the friend of America.

Even though there are hints of realism creeping into official foreign policy discussions, we remain a long way from a realistic foreign policy. Trump and his team are still making the mistake of thinking the world looks at America as the good guy, the white hat trying to make the world a safer place for democracy. In reality, the rest of the world views America as either a thumbless clod or a perfidious troublemaker. The Russians lean heavily toward the latter type.

Ironically, Trump finds himself in the inverse position as his hero Ronald Reagan at the end of the Cold War. Regan would say, “Trust but verify” when dealing with the Soviets, on the grounds that the West kept its word. It was assumed that the communists would cheat, just like they did at the Olympics. Now the roles are reversed, and it is the Russians who assume they will keep their end of the deal, but it is the West that will eventually break the deal.

This is the reality of late empire America. The emerging world order where major regional powers work to keep the peace is the result of the lone superpower failing to hold up its end of the bargain. The alien weirdos who gained control of foreign policy traded American respect and credibility so they could seek revenge on their ancient enemy to the east. The result is America has a lot of work to do in order to restore her reputation and that will require a mighty dose of realism.


If you like my work and wish to donate, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar or a Substack subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars through the postal service to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 1047 Berkeley Springs, WV 25411-3047. Thank you for your support!


Under New Management

President Trump has wrapped up his trip to Saudi Arabia and the Western media is trying hard to ignore it. The main reason is they hate Trump, of course, but a secondary reason is they do not understand the importance of the trip. To them, it just looks like another foreign trip by a president. In reality it is a glimpse of how the large share owners of America Inc. are restructuring the company. The deals signed in Saudi Arabia are the first step in that restructuring.

For fifty years, the United States and Saudi Arabia had an agreement primarily centered around oil trade and the use of the U.S. dollar. The formal part of the agreement committed the Saudis to investing their profits from energy into U.S. Treasuries in exchange for American military commitments. The result was the Saudis priced everything in dollars, which led all other OPEC members to work in dollars, thus establishing the petrodollar concept.

The reason the dollar is the world’s reserve currency is it is backed with energy, the one thing everyone needs. The gold bugs like to say the dollar is “fiat currency” and is just colorful bits of paper, but that was always false. The dollar, like all real money, represents power. From the 1970’s to the present, the dollar represented the power of the United States and the power of hydrocarbons. Instead of money backed by shiny bits of metal, the dollar was backed by energy.

Another consequence of this arrangement is it provided an unlimited demand for dollar-denominated debt, especially treasuries. Because that debt is created within the American banking system, it made the United States the global bank. In effect, the petrodollar arrangement made the United States the world mint and the world’s banker, with the oil producing countries as the miners. With only one mint, it meant that the United States also controlled the mines.

This system has been under great pressure of late for a few reasons. One is the abuse of the system by the neocons in their foreign policy schemes. No one cared that much about using the financial system against small, nuisance countries like North Korea, but when the system was turned against big countries like Russia, one of the important mints, then people did care. The rise of BRICS as an off-dollar trading system was a response to the abuse of the system.

Another reason for the faltering dollar scheme is the Saudis decided to let the fifty-year-old agreement lapse. One reason for this is the abuse of the system by the neocons during the Biden years. The neocons were deliberately trying to destabilize the region in their war against Russia. This is not what the Saudis want. The other reason is the world is changing, and the Saudis need to adapt. They cannot continue to be a gas station in the desert. They need to diversify.

The biggest reason for the pressure on the petrodollar system is it hollowed out the American economy. It is not just the decline in manufacturing, which gets most of the attention, but also the decline in the nation’s infrastructure. This is becoming acute as the demand for electricity climbs. Artificial Intelligence may be oversold, but it is a real thing that will spike demand for electricity. Without trillions in new investments, the United States will not keep up with the world.

That last bit is the what the Saudi deal addresses. The Saudis are not going to plow their profits into treasuries, but into direct investments in the United States, while the United States provides support for Saudi Defense and infrastructure. This means the Saudis will be investing in American companies that are doing work inside the United States to build factories and infrastructure. The Saudis are not just a mint serving the American bank, but an investor in America Inc.

That is another thing easily missed about this trip. In the past, presidents went to Saudi Arabia to talk about military cooperation and the local politics. Business was delegated to Treasury and Commerce. The Treasury Secretary might make a trip to the region and meet his counterparts to discuss money. When a president visited these countries, money was not on the agenda. It was politics and the military situation in the places where America had stationed soldiers.

Notice on this trip that Scott Bessent was on the trip. Notice also that Bessent turns up in all of these foreign policy events. He led the charge on the so-called mineral deal with the Ukrainians. For the first time in a long time the bankers are now part of the foreign policy discussion. In fact, Bessent is involved in everything. He is part of the effort to root out some of the massive waste in government. What we are seeing is the return of political – economy to America Inc.

For several decades, at least, the managerial class has separated economics from politics, leaving the latter to the elected officials. Economics was too important to let the politicians get involved, so it was handled by experts. The result has been the perversion of economic policy. Instead of economic policy that benefits the people of the nation, we got policy that satisfied the theorists and the tiny minority that was able to arbitrage their access to the experts.

What this trip to Saudi Arabis represents is the return of political-economy where political decisions, including foreign policy, is measured against the standard of the national interests. Trump made that clear in his speech. He declared that foreign policy would no longer be about nation wrecking but about making deals that benefit the American people. Much as economics is being dragged from the abstract to the practical, foreign policy is being brought back to reality.

This trip also symbolizes the return of American Inc. The United States has never been a country in the traditional sense. It was always a business, something like a conglomerate containing many regional companies. The post-Cold War years were a monopoly phase, where managers stopped worrying about profits and focused on pet projects and social schemes. That time is done, and the company needs to be radically reformed to become competitive again.

Like all corporate restructurings, this one will fall far short of the dreams of the reformers, but whatever the result, it must be better than the alternative because the alternative is bankruptcy. In the case of empires, bankruptcy usually ends with the shareholders swinging from trees. The oligarchs of American seem to get this, which is why they are backing Trump and his turnaround team. Time will tell if American Inc. re-emerges as a strong company or a failed experiment.


If you like my work and wish to donate, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar or a Substack subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars through the postal service to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 1047 Berkeley Springs, WV 25411-3047. Thank you for your support!


The Progressive Formula

American progressivism in its current form can be summarized as an ideology that claims, “we must do A or B will happen.” The A in this formula can be just about anything and often flips from positive to negative. There are times when doing A reverses and the warning is to stop doing it. On the other hand, the B factor is always a negative consequence of the first term. Usually, it is a vague suggestion that it is not just bad but the end of civilization as we know it.

The obvious example is the weather. On the grand scale, the first term will be something like driving cars or heating our homes, while the second term is climate change, which means climate disaster. If we keep driving cars the climate will change in such a way that earth dies. They never make that second term explicit, but the extinction stuff is assumed. After all, climate changes all the time and has often been to our benefit, but that just muddies the waters.

That gets to the other aspect of this formulation. The person or people involved assume that their normative evaluation of both terms is correct. They may be justifying their prejudice against A on the grounds that it leads to B, but they always assume that B is a bad thing that moral people should seek to avoid. You see this with climate change, which is recast as a moral condition, rather than an observation. It is a bad thing not a simple observation of earth’s behavior.

The Gaia worship stuff is easy, but it turns up everywhere, even in mundane things like foreign policy. For a few decades now the American foreign policy establishment has been warning that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, then it will be a disaster. It is in the title of this post at one of the Claremont sites. The post is a veiled argument in favor of going to war with Iran on behalf of Israel. The post is in response to another post on the subject that dismisses this progressive formulation.

What we see with Iran are two variations of the same theme. One is “If we do not do A then B will happen.” The other is “If they are able to do A, then B will happen.” Sometimes they are linked together to get something like, “If we do not do A then they will do B and then C will happen.” The point of this formulation is to avoid examining the second term. The debate must center on the first part, what we ought or ought not do, while accepting the general badness of B.

Again, the Gaia business is an easy example. Every debate on climate policy centers on that first term and never debates the second term. It is always assumed by all sides allowed in the debate, that climate change is bad. In fact, a condition of getting into the debate is that you accept that climate change is morally bad. Your reason for accepting Gaia as your lord and savior may be different from others who accept Gaia, but accepting Gaia is the only way into the debate.

Note that Spivak in his response to Dobson spends a lot of his time smearing Dobson as immoral or otherwise out of bounds. One point of the Spivak post is to anathematize Dobson and anyone who dares question B. Central to the claims of Spivak is that everyone must accept his normative claims about Iran going nuclear. That way, the debate is reduced to the ways to prevent it, since a nuclear Iran is assumed to be a disaster for the world.

It is the natural way progressives control public debate. This is the heart of the debate between those two posts on Iran. Dobson, the author of the post at the start of the exchange, is questioning the veracity of B. He is correct that there are no arguments to support the claim. The evidence we have says that if Iran gets the bomb, they will become even less aggressive toward Israel. We see this with India and Pakistan where nuclear weapons keep the peace.

Spivak, on the other hand, simply cannot accept Dobson’s questioning of B in the well-worn formulation, so he repeats all of the ways people have said, “If A then B” over the years regarding Iran and nuclear weapons. The reason for this is that any change in B invalidates the formula. Suddenly, A does not necessarily lead to B, which then causes a revaluation of the set of choices in A. It also removes the necessity of the person warning, “If we do not do A, then B will happen.”

If there are a set of conditions in which Iran gets the bomb, but like all but one other nuclear country, does not use it, then the debate over American relations with Iran shift from various forms of war with Iran to include peaceful relations with Iran. Suddenly, the war mongers move from being one voice in a choir preaching some form of war, to being war mongers in a room with people calling for peace. They lose their moral high ground and become the high-risk position.

In this regard, progressive ideology inherited the basic formula from Christianity but stripped it of all Christian references. Heaven is just the assumed destination if we follow the progressive formula. If we follow the tides of history, then we will reach the egalitarian paradise. On the other hand, if we do not stop doing a long list of things that meet the requirement of A, then some version of Hell awaits us. The reason our politics is so preachy is that it is dominated by preachers.

Progressivism is secular Christianity of the Protestant variety, which is why all progressive arguments reduce to “Repent or burn in Hell!” You must ride a bike to work, or you will burn in Hell for angering Gaia. We must make war with Iran, or we will burn in Hell for letting her get the bomb. The madness of America stems from the fact that all doors now lead to Hell. There are no choices in the first term that do not lead to the second term and the second term is always Hell.

It is why the antidote to progressive polemics is not facts and reason. Those facts neatly arranged in a chart do nothing to alter the basic progressive formula. Instead, the solution is a revaluation of the values contained in the formula. If the value of B is open to debate, then there is no debate over A. If any part of A is morally questionable, then B ceases to be a consideration. You do not defeat moral claims with facts, but with the dismissal of those moral claims by challenging the underlying assertions.


If you like my work and wish to donate, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar or a Substack subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars through the postal service to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 1047 Berkeley Springs, WV 25411-3047. Thank you for your support!