The Ukraine Calendar

Posted on July 24, 2024 by thezman

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Lost in the firehose of events this past month is the fact that there is a race against the clock going with regards to the Ukraine war. In fact, the decision to force Biden out of the race may have been tied to what is happening with Ukraine. The war that has become the defining feature of Joe Biden’s tenure is heading for a finale, but the timing of that final is unclear. The shape of the finale is what has Europe’s political class pacing the floors while following events in Washington.

The most important fact on the ground is that the Russians are steadily advancing across the entire front, with the exception of the south. The Russians have not gone on the offensive in that area for some reason, but that could be changing. There are reports of increased activity along that part of the front. Everywhere else, the Russian army is slowly and methodically grinding up the Ukrainian army and slowly advancing one village and stronghold at a time.

Since the summer of 2022, the goal of the Russians has been to limit their losses while maximizing Ukrainian losses, even if it meant not advancing along the front. One of the primary demands by the Russians before the war started was the demilitarization of Ukraine and now that is a primary goal of the war. Every day Russian drones circle over the front looking for men and equipment to destroy. As a result, the Ukraine army has been taking a steady beating for eighteen months.

As things stand, the Ukrainians have three main problems. The big one is they have no defense to Russian glide bombs. This means the Ukrainians cannot maneuver to counter Russian advances. As soon as they are spotted, a fifteen-hundred-pound bomb lands on their position. The second problem is the Russians are about to split the front, thus cutting the Ukraine army in two. This brings up the third problem which is the inability of Ukraine to coordinate across the front.

An army that cannot move, cannot defend itself against the enemy and cannot coordinate between its units is a sitting duck. The Ukrainian soldiers are tenacious and fearsome fighters, but they are now in an impossible position. Morale is becoming a serious problem as reality sets in on the troops. Insubordination is increasing and that means the military leaders have another constraint. Their soldiers now often refuse to go on the attack or defend their positions.

What the Russians ultimately want is for Zelensky or his successor to sign an agreement ceding the Russian speaking areas, Crimea, and whatever lands the Russians think will compensate them for the war. They also want Ukraine to agree to the other demands regarding demilitarization and plots to join NATO. The Russians think that if Ukraine signs a deal, Washington will have to recognize it. That may be a dream but that is what they are thinking.

That is the first deadline. The people running the Biden administration do not want this to happen under circumstances, much less before the autumn. Now that Biden is out of the picture, the goal is to set things up so Russia hawks infiltrate and subvert any efforts by the Harris team. Of course, if Harris proves to be too ridiculous even for the vote rigging schemes, then putting this tar baby in the lap of Trump is the goal and that means Ukraine holding on until January.

Sensing the clock is running out on him, Zelensky is now making noises about sitting down with the Russians. What he seems to understand is that if Trump wins, the Russians can dictate whatever terms they like to Ukraine. The reason for that is Trump is not only uninterested in continuing the war, but he remembers how Zelensky helped the Democrats impeach him. It is better to cut a deal before Trump wins the election than after, as Zelensky will then have no leverage.

There is another angle here for Zelensky. The so-called nationalists understand they are dead if Zelensky cuts a deal with Russia. Their only path to survival is the war continuing and then maybe devolving into a guerilla war. Of course, Zelensky understands this too. He has to decide if he must first order his army to move on these nationalist units, before or after he starts talks with Russia. His life literally depends on timing this out exactly right.

Of course, the Russians understand this as well. They most likely expect Zelensky to talk about a deal, maybe even start talking with the Russians, but not commit to anything, until it is clear which way the election will go. What is unclear is whether the Russians want Zelensky to sign the final deal or his successor. They may roll the dice and wait until the election, figuring either result is fine. Regardless, they now have time on their side so they can keep doing what they have been doing.

The other player in this drama is Europe. The European political class has bet everything on the Ukraine war. Now they face the prospect of Trump returning to power and then pulling the plug on Project Ukraine. Like Zelensky, they have to worry that Trump did not forget that European intel agencies helped his political enemies plot against him during his first term. Regardless, they now are in a race against the clock to “Trump proof” NATO regarding Project Ukraine.

The trouble with all of this, however, is the war may end much faster than anyone is expecting, except maybe the Russians. Most of Ukraine now has electric for only a few hours a day. This means the urban centers have water a few hours a day. It also means the no food that requires refrigeration. Of course, this makes the distribution of essentials nearly impossible in major cities. The constant pressure of the war could bring about a civilian collapse at any time.

The interesting and ironic aspect to all of this is the two players in this game with time on their side are Trump and Putin. Trump is under no pressure at all with regards to Ukraine, as he has no stake in it. Putin, of course, is now holding most of the cards, so he can wait until the others show their hands. Proof that the universe has a sense of humor will be that the two winners in Project Ukraine will be the two guys linked by the creators of project Ukraine in the Russian collusion hoax.

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The Suicide Cult

Posted on July 10, 2024 by thezman

Note: If you are interesting hearing me gas on about a variety of things, then you are in luck as I was on Coffee and Mike yesterday. Listen here.

There is a big NATO summit going on in Washington right now and the main focus of the meeting is what to do about Ukraine. Here is Biden talking about doing something with the wife of the NATO Secretary General and then calling him an “intellectual wigger” for some reason. Perhaps Biden thinks this will get him more support in the black community or perhaps he has no idea where he is, but that is part of the background noise of this summit.

The point of NATO, formed up after the Second World War, was to keep Germany down, the Russians out and the Americas in. It is just assumed that NATO is an American creation, but it was created by the UK and France. The Treaty of Dunkirk was signed by France and the United Kingdom on 4 March 1947 with the express purpose of mutual defense in case of attacks by Germany or the Soviets. The real purpose was to bind the United States to Europe forever.

This formula worked throughout the Cold War, as the Red Army sitting on the border of Western Europe was a daily reminder for why the so-called free nations of Europe needed to stick together and under the protective shield of America. The fact that it was highly unlikely that the Soviets would move into Europe was never considered, as the threat was simply too convenient. The Warsaw Pact was formed almost a decade later in response to the formation of NATO.

This should be ancient history, as the Soviet Union is gone and the Cold War has been over for more than a generation, but it helps explain the present psychosis that has gripped the NATO countries. For half a century, their identity and therefore the reason for their political and economic elites to exist was based in this fear of the Russians flowing across the border. What it meant to be European came to mean fear of the bear and the desperate clinging to the eagle.

In other words, European elites need the bear and the eagle, because who they are literally and spiritually exist between the two. Much of what passes for European diplomacy over the last decade or so has been an effort to poke the bear into being the bear again and telling the eagle that she is still that majestic eagle of yore. This is why the Europeans flew into action at the start of the Ukraine war. Their reason to exist had finally returned and there was cheering in every European capital.

The trouble is the eagle is too old to fly. Biden hosting what will most likely be his last NATO summit is emblematic of the problem. The America that beat the fascists and secured peace for half a century is no more. The arsenal of democracy, like old family heirlooms of a once proud dynasty, has been auctioned off to the highest bidder and like Biden, is a shuffling husk of its former self. Biden mumbling crazy things on stage is the perfect image for the current moment.

One cannot help but wonder how the alleged leaders of Europe can sit in their chairs watching this desiccated husk cling to office and not see the problem. An America that produces a leader like Biden is nothing like the America that produced the young and reckless Kennedy or the sharp and charming Reagan. How is it possible for these people to not see what is plain to anyone who looks? How can they possibly think they can and should tempt war with Russia?

Of course, the main reason is that the European elites are just as dilapidated and broken down as the American elites. Look across Europe and you cannot find anyone who would be allowed to shine the shoes of great leaders of the past. Instead, it is managerial functionaries who have been elevated into positions with impressive titles and no real power because they are obsequious toadies. They may as well be actors hired from the local circus.

In truth, they are actors. Europe, having been remade in the image of the progressive masters across the sea, has the same problem we see in American politics, which is a system that selects for people willing to read their lines. It is why you never find anyone in European politics who had a job in the dreaded private sector. That is a disqualifier on a resume, so the politically ambitious avoid anything that requires practical knowledge and instead work on their obsequiousness.

Amusingly, many of these so-called leaders claim the Ukraine war is an existential crisis, apparently thinking “existential” means “external.” Even more amusingly, they are correct despite not understanding what they are saying. The Ukraine war is the result of an inner conflict in Europe. To be European no longer has any meaning, so what is the purpose of the institution set up to protect it? The so-called leaders have no answer when asked, “why defend Europe at all?”

The proof of this is the steady invasion from the south. The people terrified of an invasion from the east celebrate mass migration. So much so that they are now rigging their elections to prevent any efforts to stem the flow. Keir Starmer’s first act was to welcome boats full of Africans to the UK. The unsaid truth at the NATO summit is the answer to the question at the center of Europe’s existential crisis is suicide. They will end the question of Europe by exterminating it.

Maybe in the end that is the final point of NATO. Just as the people who run imperial foreign policy would rather blow up the world in a nuclear Armageddon than see their ancient enemy prosper, the so-called leaders of Europe would rather see the end of Europe than think about leading an independent Europe. This NATO summit is Jonestown, and the leader promising salvation is a deranged old man who everyone hopes brought the Flavor Aid.

The Dangerous Game

Posted on June 25, 2024 by thezman

During the Cold War, planners concluded that nuclear war would most likely result from two closely related factors. One was the breakdown of communications between Washington and Moscow at all levels. It was not just the red phone between the Kremlin and the White House, but communications across both systems. The other factor that would lead to war was uncertainty about the other side’s intentions. This fear could result in runaway escalation ending in nuclear disaster.

The remedy for this was to maintain communications at all levels of government with the other side so that both sides knew the nuclear posture of the other. The American military had a range of contacts with the Russian military. The spy agencies had contacts with one another across a range of issues and regions. Members of Western media and the academy developed contacts with their analogs on an unofficial basis on behalf of the intel agencies.

The main reason the Cold War did not end in nuclear annihilation is that the two great managerial systems institutionalized communications in such a way that it became a specialty with career opportunities. In Russia, being an expert in some aspect of America meant a good life as a member of the new class. In America, having some expertise on Russia meant a comfortable life in the clouds. The Cold War standoff became a jobs program for both sides.

The selection pressure on both sides was for second and third order thinking, as both sides had an investment in the status quo. Foreign policy advisors in America thought about the downstream consequences of their recommendations because it could have a direct impact on their employment prospects. Similarly, on the Russian side, the pressure was always there to think about how the Americans would react as getting that wrong could mean being posted to the Urals.

This is what makes the present so dangerous. Washington’s proxy war with Russia lacks both the incentives to prevent escalation and the sorts of people who see it as their purpose to prevent escalation. Washington has cut off communications with Moscow and works to prevent others from developing their own channels. Europe has little contact now with Russia. The primary goal of Washington is to isolate Moscow, which means isolating the West from the world.

We see how this works in the recent beach attack in Crimea. Washington provides Ukraine with long range guided missiles. Ukraine lacks the ability to use them, so the American military provides the targeting and guidance of them, while the Ukrainians operate the ground-based launchers. Over the weekend, one of the missiles, which was armed with cluster munitions, hit a busy beach, killing half a dozen civilians and wounding hundreds of others.

This was most likely an accident. Either the targeting was wrong, as there is a military base nearby, or the missile malfunctioned. It is possible the air defense system knocked the missile off course instead of destroying it. It is also possible that the Ukrainians, in league with their neocon handlers, did something to target the missiles at civilian infrastructure, which has happened in the past. There is the rumor that the real target was the big Orthodox cathedral nearby.

The point is no one knows and more importantly, no one in Moscow knows what the intent was behind this attack. The Russians have stated that they think it was deliberate and they blame Washington. Moscow summoned the American ambassador, presumably to deliver a warning about future reprisals. Putin made clear that Moscow will retaliate, and it may not be against Ukraine. Everyone is left to guess as to what they mean but the empire has targets all over the world.

What has developed is a game of chicken in which the Biden administration keeps escalating, daring the Russians to respond, while the Russians try to figure out what Washington is actually trying to achieve. There is no benefit to the Russians in escalation, so they seek to avoid it. Logically, there is no benefit to the West in escalation, but they keep escalating, so Russia is left to guess as to what is the real motivation behind these escalations.

Where this leaves us is a place that is the reverse of the Cold War. There is no communication between the two sides and neither side knows what the other side is thinking or planning. On the surface, the Russian position is clear, but Western propaganda has anathematized accepting it at face value. The coordinated attacks on Nigel Farage from the entire political class is a good example. Merely pointing out the obvious gets you called a traitor.

It is easy to see how this can end horrifically. If the Russians, for example, declare a no-fly zone over the Black Sea, it is likely that Washington will keep sending drones toward Crimea and the Russians will have to knock them down. Washington will then send manned aircraft or maybe a British ship to threaten the Russian fleet. Such a situation could easily spiral out of control because one side thinks it can do anything it likes, and the other side knows it has to draw the line somewhere.

That gets to the heart of the matter. Over the last thirty years in the absence of that old Cold War system, the neocons have taken control of the foreign policy establishment to the point where there is no dissent in Washington. The system is now controlled by fanatics who lack second order thinking. Like all fanatics, the neocons see only that which satisfies their fanaticism. As a result, they imagine every move is furtherance of their goal of destroying their ancient enemy.

There is also the fact that America is a fading empire that still assumes Francis Fukuyama was right and this is the end of history. Thirty years of selecting for people good at enjoying the fruits of victory has left the managerial class in the West stocked with obsequious, narrow-minded dullards. A Jake Sullivan is in his position because he never asks questions and never has an original thought. These people are easily manipulated by the psychopaths of the Kagan cult.

The ultimate question that is being answered at the moment is whether the Global American Empire will go out with a bang or a whimper. In the fullness of time that will be the real history of this age. The emerging great powers of the world are trying to manage the decline of the West and the transition to a multipolar world, while the people running the West play a game of chicken. The reckless management of the Ukraine war suggests it will not end well.

Gradually And Then Suddenly

Posted on June 19, 2024 by thezman

The Brits are set to have an election on July 4th, ironically enough, and everyone expects it to be a terrible result for the ruling party. The Tories have been in power for a long time and have managed to break every promise they made when they gained power and make everything worse that they promised to improve. On top of that they have gone through a series of ridiculous people as Prime Minister. The current person in the job is an Indian little person who has never run for office.

The reason the Conservatives called what the Brits call “snap elections”, is the people who actually run Britain are worried about new right-wing parties. Snap elections are those called on short notice in some parliamentary systems. The logic behind it is that the ruling party can more easily rig an election when they are out of favor by limiting the time for the opposition to mount a campaign. Democracy depends on institutional skullduggery to maintain its legitimacy.

According to current polling, which is as fraudulent as everything else in the West these days, the Conservatives are at 21%, which is their lowest rating ever. This is why there is a campaign called Zero Seats. The argument is that the only way to break the corrupt system is to eliminate one of the two main parties. Since the Tories are as popular as rectal cancer, they are the best target. While unlikely, it is possible to see a scenario in which they become a fringe party.

It is not all bad news for the Conservatives. Their historic dance partner, Labour, is polling at just 41%, which is terrible given the status of the Tories. Like America, the game of see-saw the parties play says that when one face of the ruling class is unpopular, the other face is popular. Right now, in the UK, both faces of the ruling class are unpopular, which is why they forced snap elections. No respectable person wants to see a new party rise up and challenge the system.

Just in case, the regime has brought Nigel Farage back from America where he was committed to stumping for Donald Trump. Farage is now the leader of the Reform Party, which is the heir to the Brexit Party. He created that after he successfully led the winning side in the Brexit referendum. The party was created to force the regime to follow through on the referendum, which they did not do. It is one of the reasons UK politics are such a mess now.

The only reason any of this matters is it is a good way to see how the system adjusts to defend itself from public discontent. The British regime is just the mini-me of the American regime, so it is a microcosm of what happens in America. The scale is smaller, and the system is slightly different, but we see all the same tricks used by the regime to make sure it is always heads they win and tails you lose. One of those tricks is to co-opt discontent into an acceptably pointless channel.

You can see how it works in the program the Reform Party posted on Twitter, now stupidly called X, the other day. They put immigration at the top because this is one of the top issues that is rustling the voters. To the untrained eye it all looks good, but to the trained eye the fraud is quite clear. The point of their program is to not question the moral claims behind immigration, but to put a fence around that morality so the question is how to best manage mass immigration.

Look at the first point. “Freeze non-essential Immigration.” The only reason to have the term “non-essential Immigration” is if you have “essential Immigration”, which is a moral claim held by the people Farage claims to oppose. Who decided that any immigration is essential and essential to whom? Was it the bankers who actually run the country or was it the managerial elite who adopted it as a luxury belief? Who decides what is and what is not essential about immigration?

Here is another example. “All asylum seekers that arrive illegally from safe countries will be processed rapidly, offshore if necessary.” Logically, the UK should never receive any asylum seekers as by law and logic, asylum seekers go to the nearest safe country for temporary refuge while the home country is in turmoil. The UK is a set of islands bordered by countries that are stable “democracies” so there can never be a case where anyone seeks asylum in the UK.

The point of this weaselly language is two-fold. One is it is the natural obsequiousness that infests all Western right-wing parties. They have the slave mentality, which means they are always bowing and scraping before the people they pretend to oppose with regards to the moral claims of the ruling elite. The other reason is it tend to work as people just see the headlines and never think about the qualifiers. Owning the libs is a universal concept in Western democracies.

Of course, putting an entertaining clown like Farage up as the front man is a great way to distract from this reality. People are mad and lack the sophistication to understand the issues in detail, so Farage provides a vent for their frustration by pretending to be on their side, when in reality he fully supports the moral framework that is the root cause of their frustration. Farage and his Reform Party are what James Carville once called “boob bit for the bubbas.”

The genius of the trick is it will work. Reform is now polling within a few points of the Tories at 16% in the government polls. In other polls they are in a statistical dead heat with the Tories. If they overtake them, then the people angry at the system will claim victory for having knocked out the Tories. Meanwhile, gangs of Muslims are chasing their daughters through the streets. If Reform flops, then they can focus their energy on being angry at Labour for a few years.

For Americans, this should sound familiar. The usual suspects co-opted the Tea Party to become a subsidiary of the Republican Party. What could have been a threat to the system was quickly neutralized. The current populist groundswell has been slowly co-opted by oleaginous grifters who run around wearing red caps and talking about Trump like he is Orange Jesus. Meanwhile, Trump’s platform is now no different from what Jeb Bush was offering in 2016.

This may sound black-pilling and depressing, but the white pill in what is happening with populist parties all around the West is they are gnawing away at the legitimacy of the system by forcing these reactions. The dullards in the UK fall for Farage, but there are lots of people who have gotten wise to this stuff by watching him work. In the U.S., the Trump phenomenon has opened the eyes of many to the reality of the system, simply by seeing the system react to Trump.

In other words, the process by which a system loses its legitimacy is through its various mutations to defend itself from challenges. The number of people wondering if the system should be saved is a measurable number now, thanks to the struggle the system has undergone to defend against even mild reform. The same is true all over as people increasingly notice the unwillingness of the system to give an inch on critical issues like immigration and culture.

The old line from Hemingway about bankruptcy being gradually then suddenly applies to all complex systems. Failed populist uprisings and Potemkin opposition movements are the gradually portion of the show. With every failure to get even a tiny concession from the system, the system loses legitimacy. At some point, and no one ever knows when it will happen, the suddenly part of the show begins. In order to get there, you have to work through the gradually part first.

The Euros And Ukraine

Posted on June 13, 2024 by thezman

During Covid, one of the questions that kicked around was how would the public react when they found out the government was lying? The answer is we do not know as the whole thing has been thrown down the memory hole for the most part. The truth about Covid has slowly seeped into the public consciousness, but no one asks them about it and no media outlet discusses it. The best anyone can tell is that the Covid lies have become a part of the general cynicism.

We will soon get another case to see how the public will respond when the truth is nothing like what they have been told by the media. In the case of Project Ukraine, this test will happen in Europe where the local media talks about the war in Ukraine in terms that have always been fanciful. It was European media that gave us the “Ghost of Kiev” and the babushkas knocking down fighter jets with canned goods. They continue to feed their public outlandish stories about the war.

Those with an interest in the war and access to the internet can find out what is actually happening on the battlefield. The facts are often blurred by the fog of war and the bias of the people doing the reporting, but with some patience you can get a good picture of what is happening in Ukraine. It is even possible to get a sense of what is happening outside the war zone as there are still plenty of Ukrainians posting stuff to popular apps like Telegram and Instagram.

Very little of this reality gets into Europeans media. Instead, they produce content like this from the UK Telegraph, which is supposed to be a serious media platform, not the typical British tabloid. Not only are they “reporting” that Ukrainian “wonder weapons are decimating the Russians”, but they also have a special section with high production quality explanations of those wonder weapons. In other words, this is a highly choregraphed bit of propaganda designed to deceive the public.

The wonder weapon stuff is mild compared to some of the other posts you will find about Ukraine in the Telegraph. This one claims the Ukrainians are about to seize Crimea because their squadrons of unicorns are showering the place with magical fairy dust they shoot from their ass. That is not an exaggeration, as magical farting unicorns would be more plausible than the contents of the actual post. The whole thing is a fantasy with no basis in reality.

It is not just the UK media that is gaslighting the public. The German media is full of similarly nonsensical stories. Here is the Ukraine page for Bild, which you can use Google to translate into English. Die Zeit is probably the most respected news site in Germany, and it just copies and pastes whatever Kiev, or the neocons send them about what is happening in the war. While not as ridiculous as the UK media, the continental media is gaslighting its public just as hard.

The problem is the war is going horribly for Ukraine. The Russian army is slowly and methodically grinding the Ukraine army into bits. Every month the Ukrainians are forced to fall back at some point along the line of contact. The Russians have knocked out the power grid of the country, which means there is no electric for up to twenty hours per day in some areas. The Ukrainian army is literally snatching men off the streets and sending them to the front due to a lack of manpower.

What Ukraine war watchers have known for a long time is that at some point, the Ukraine army will not be able to keep fighting. At some point, the Russians will decide it is time to end the war on its terms. Given that this is a proxy war between Washington and Moscow, the assumption is the fall is when things come to a head, just in time for the presidential election. Maybe it will happen sooner or maybe later, but at some point, reality will burst through those European headlines.

From a distance, it is hard to know if the firehose of nonsense about the war is fooling the European public. The recent elections suggest that at the minimum the public is tired of the ruling parties putting the welfare of Ukraine ahead of the welfare of the European people. It is possible that the Euros have been wise to the media nonsense about Ukraine, but simply care more about other things. Like Covid, it is hard to know as no one bothers to find out what the public thinks.

Unlike Covid, the collapse of Project Ukraine is not going to be easy to sweep under the rug by ignoring it. With Covid, the liars scurried off with their bags of cash and the pols declared victory as they let their foot off the neck of the public. The general public was simply happy to get back to normal. That is probably not going to work with Ukraine as there is no benefit to putting the topic in the past. There will simply be what the media claimed to be true and the truth, which is the opposite.

Compounding the problem in Europe is the fact that the leading politicians have made Ukraine their signature issue. In the U.S., the pols have been giving it a good leaving alone for a year now, other than the big funding push in February. Note that as soon as that bill passed, they changed the subject. In Europe, the political class has made Ukraine a test of their legitimacy. Therefore, when the Ukraine army surrenders, they cannot shrug and move on to other issues.

One of the lessons of the Soviet era was that the accumulation of lies eventually saps even the most repressive regime of legitimacy. The Soviet system fell apart when no one could think of a reason to support it, not even the people at the top of the system who benefitted from it the most. In this way, Ukraine and Covid may be analogous to Afghanistan and Chernobyl. These are events that delegitimize the system by making clear that nothing it says or does is on the level.

Death In Dollars

Posted on June 12, 2024 by thezman

Without much fanfare and no coverage in Western media, one of the most important agreements of the 20th century was allowed to expire last week. That agreement is the deal made between the United States and Saudi Arabia in 1974 that established what has been known ever since as the petro-dollar. Saudi Arabia would price its oil exports exclusively in U.S. dollars and invest its surplus oil revenues in U.S. Treasury bonds while the U.S. provided military protection to the kingdom.

The importance of this deal cannot be overstated. The demand for dollars has kept the currency strong and thus kept imports cheap. It also allowed the Federal Reserve to “export excess dollars” to developing countries with a need for dollars. The institutional demand for treasuries as a result of this agreement allowed for the low interest rate environment we have seen for decades. This has made it possible for the United States to build up massive debts both publicly and privately.

Another way to think about this deal is by pricing energy in dollars, the dollar became the default global currency because the dollar was a proxy for energy units. This made the Saudis the head of the mint and the Federal Reserve the global bank. The Saudis could control the flow of energy units around the world, a very profitable position, and the United States could skim from every transaction denominated in dollars, which was every transaction across national borders.

The reason for the lack of coverage of this historic event is two-fold. One is the mass media is now populated by zombies with no agency of their own, so until the regime hands them copy, they have nothing to say. The other is the financial world has no idea where this is going. Five years ago, no one imagined this deal would be allowed to expire, but years of mismanagement by the Biden administration has made a hash of things all over the world.

There is speculation that the Saudis are simply bargaining hard knowing that the Biden admin is desperate. Anthony Blinken is supposedly prepared to offer the Saudis a generous nuclear package, in addition to more military support, in order to continue the relationship, but of course it comes with a catch. The Saudis will have to normalize relations with Israel, something they are loath to do. There is no upside to them making a deal with a regime that routinely slaughters Arabs.

Now, the expiry of this deal does not mean much at the present. Half a century of pricing everything important in dollars will not be unraveled quickly. Tens of trillions in assets are priced in dollars, so the dollar remains the default currency, but it does open the door to alternatives. The Saudis will now accept other currencies for their energy products, which means OPEC will follow their lead. China can now buy oil in yuan, rather than swap yuan for dollars.

In the short-term this will not change much of anything, but over time it will result in a decrease in the demand for dollars. For example, if you trade with China for manufactured goods, it makes sense to trade in the yuan for energy products as it simplifies trade with China. The same is true for the Russian ruble, the Indian rupee, and the Brazilian real. Of course, it also means bypassing the American controlled banking system for settling these transactions.

The next shoe to drop in this process is a settlement system that operates outside the control of Washington. Project mBridge is a scheme for creating a digital currency to facilitate cross border transactions. The Saudis have recently joined this project, which is mainly supported by China. The Russians have recently shown interest in the project, despite years of resistance. The trade war launched by Washington has changed opinion in Moscow about dealing with the West.

That is another aspect to this. The Russian economy not only absorbed the sanctions blow, but it has also grown faster than the Western economies. Russia now has the fourth largest economy in the world. Sanctions forced the Russians to do thigs like replace the retail credit card system with their own system. They cleaned up their banking system to root out fraud and corruption. It was an inadvertent test case for creating financial systems outside of Western control.

Again, none of this signal the collapse of the dollar. The people screaming such things have no idea how the world actually works. What we are seeing is the slow decline of the American financial order. The countries that make things, fix things, dig things from the ground and invent things are starting to see that they do not need the countries that merely count things. This is especially true when the people doing the counting have a history of stealing from their customers.

What comes next is the slow decline in the demand for dollars and euros, which will make inflation a feature of Western economies. It will also mean the slow rise in borrowing rates in the West. If the rest of the world needs fewer dollars and euros it means they need fewer bonds denominated in dollars and euros. That leaves Western governments with the choice of cutting spending or printing money, which is the same thing but only less honest.

None of this was inevitable. After the Cold War, the United States could have remained the world’s banker and honest broker. Instead, the economic elites of America allowed the world’s most dishonest people to gain control of foreign policy. They used that power to launch a decades long crusade against their ancient enemies and in the process, they squandered the good name of the American people and destroyed global trust in the United States. Decline is now what must follow.

When Prophecy Fails

Posted on June 5, 2024 by thezman

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the logic of the West has rested on the theory that the Russians cannot sustain a long war. In the winter of 2022 the argument was summed up by Francis Fukuyama in this legendarily wrong post. In that post he claimed the Russian army was about to collapse at any minute and maybe take the Putin government down with it. He then followed up on that claim with a similar post, in which he claimed to have been right, amazingly enough.

It is tempting to dismiss Fukuyama as just another brazen hustler that circulates around the managerial class, but he is one of the more successful ones. His famous book, The End of History and the Last Man, was a massive best seller primarily because he pushed all the right buttons for the post-Cold War elites. It was massively successful flattery because the people being flattered believed it. They continue to believe it, which is why they maintain a bellicose foreign policy.

Put another way, these grifters passing themselves off as intellectuals tell us something about the system that hosts them, but also the people they flatter. Fukuyama gets to travel around the empire passing as a sage, because the people hosting him think he is right and that is because they want him to be right. Meanwhile, a guy who has been consistently right, John Mearsheimer, gets called mean names, mostly because he is right and the people calling him names hate him for it.

This blinkered view is how we got the war in Ukraine. This almost religious belief that the triumph of the West in the Cold War was the beginning of the final journey into the promised land, the end of history, has shaped imperial policy, both foreign and domestic, for decades. Fukuyama wrote his book in 1992 and others have been building on it ever since. In his 1997 book, The Grand Chessboard, Zbigniew Brzezinski argued for the breaking up of Russia to finish the Cold War.

In other words, the war in Ukraine is not something that happened for no reason at all, but rather it is the product of a messianic outlook in the West that has existed since at least the end of the Cold War. In fact, the war looks like it comes right from the Western playbook to undermine and topple the Putin government. This study by the RAND Corporation, the most important think tank in the empire, talks specifically about this type of project as a tool to destabilize Russia.

The point of all this is to properly frame the war as part of the overall belief system of the West, rather than just something that happened for no reason at all. Washington expected this war because they had been planning for it for decades. Even though they were wrong in most of their assumptions, there is no reason to think that belief structure has changed. History shows that believers do not abandon their beliefs when faced with disconfirmation. They just believe harder.

That is important to understand when thinking about what comes next. The micro-countries of NATO are now yapping about war with Russia. Hilariously, tiny Estonia is offering security guarantees to Ukraine. The Estonia military is about the size of the Las Vegas police department and probably just as lethal. Lithuania is now inviting in the Germans to build defensive structures for the assumed Russian attack. Perhaps the Germans will bring their broomsticks with them.

The reason these small players are making these noises is the same reason Fukuyama wrote a book, calling the people he wished to flatter, the deliverers of mankind from the clutches of irrationality. These micro-countries organize their foreign affairs around flattering the powerful. Without NATO, Kaja Kallas is as well-known as the mayor of Wichita, but in NATO she can stand on the big stage, just as long as she tells Washington what they wish to hear.

This is what makes the moment so dangerous. Kallas is a simpleton, but an obsequious simpleton, so she often speaks the truth about her masters. Washington has no plan for ending the war other than the total defeat of Russia, something that can only happen if they launch nuclear weapons. The current debate about letting Ukraine use NATO weapons to attack inside Russia is mostly about normalizing the idea of NATO attacking inside Russia, something the Russians will never tolerate.

Compounding all of this is the fact that Ukraine is slowly being ground down by the Russian war machine. All of Ukraine is now forced to ration electricity. Major cities have long blackouts due to the lack of energy. The Ukraine army is desperate for soldiers, but all of the men have gone into hiding to avoid being grabbed off the streets and sent directly to the front. These raw “recruits” are being trained at the front, which means thrown into a trench with a rifle and a few grenades.

The point is we will soon see something like what Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter described in their study of a UFO cult. Western political leaders have been assured for decades that the promised land lies just after the final disillusion of Russia, which will come any day now. Like the people waiting for the space aliens, they have been waiting for regime change in Russia. Instead, they may be facing angry mobs outside their own palaces as the project collapses.

We live in an age of wonders, but the greatest wonder to be revealed will be when the regime realizes that the future promised to them by the neocons and their fellow travelers was never going to be reality. When the Ukraine army starts to buckle and the politics in Kiev become violent, how will the West react? Will reality suddenly descend upon Washington, or will they do like the cult members in When Prophesy Fails and find some way to internalize it and keep the faith?

The Great Panic

Posted on May 13, 2024 by thezman

Ever since the Hamas attacks on October 7th, 2023, the American empire has been convulsed by increasingly deranged tremors. The Israelis adopted a policy that on the surface makes little sense. All it has done is poison relations with the Arabs and much of the world. In America, both political parties have gone nuts in response to the attacks, Israel’s response, and the reaction to that response. Peak madness may be Lindsey Graham suggesting Israel uses nukes on Gaza.

Graham, of course, is trying to show he is the most Zionist of Zionists in a party that makes Likud look dovish. Elected Republicans are obsessed with Israel to the point where even pro-Israel supporters are suffering from severe cringe. Here is Ted Cruz claiming that no one came to the aid of Jews in the Second World War and that Israel has had to go it alone. The logic here is that you are either on the side of unconditional support for Israel or you are Hitler.

One reason for this, of course, is the power of AIPAC. Thomas Massie has opposed the blank check to Israel, so AIPAC has launched both a smear campaign against him, but also a television campaign in his state. AIPAC has been threatening politicians around the country with what could best be described as a “stand with Israel or you get two in the hat” marketing campaign. The only thing missing is a pic of Kennedy slumped over in the car as his wife tries to keep his head together.

The madness is not contained to the street level politics. The normally sober minded David Goldman, the man behind the Spengler column in the Asia Times, posted a crazy rant about Christian Nationalism at the Claremont site, American Mind. In that post he seems to suggest that Christians do not deserve their own nations and must worship Israel if they want to survive. It is a bit of mask dropping that you only ever see from fringe players in the diaspora.

All of this raises the question as to what is happening here? The large and well-funded philosemitic ecosystem seems to be shaking itself to pieces. The trigger for this lurch into madness was the Hamas attack, which the people in this ecosystem demand be treated like a world defining event, when in reality it was just another reprisal in a long running blood feud between the Arabs and Jews. For some reason, it is not seen as such by these people. Instead, it is an inflection point.

One reason for this is the changes inside Israel. The old guard is reaching its demographic end point. Since its founding, Israel has been controlled by Ashkenazi Jews, mostly from the diaspora. The other Jewish tribes, particularly the Mizrahi, have been spectators. The Mizrahi are the Jews who have always been in the Middle East, as opposed to those who migrated with the Roman Legions into Europe. Mizrahi is a modern term that means “eastern.”

The dominance of westernized Ashkenazi Jews has meant that Israeli politics has reflected the politics of the American empire. One side has taken the dovish view of Arab relations, and the other side has taken the hawkish view. Further, Israel diplomacy has followed American diplomacy. This has made it easy for the Israelis to deal with the rest of the world diplomatically and provided some limits on Israel behavior. Now that the Mizrahi are ascendent, this dynamic is changing.

The Mizrahi have now entered government and are taking over what has been the political right in Israel. They have an agenda that starts with the removal of the Arab populations from “Greater Israel” which is why the expression “from the river to the sea” is so controversial. The Mizrahi also demand the return to Talmudic law and the building of the third temple, which means destroying the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The Mizrahi back Netanyahu, who needs them to survive politically.

This changing of the guard inside Israel explains the crazy response from the Israelis, in the teeth of global opposition. It does not explain why the Israelis seem willing to offend their supporters in America. Normally, the protests we see in the West would have led to strong pressure from whoever is occupying the White House to tone down the violence and address the optics. Instead, we have both parties demanding total, unconditional obedience to the Israeli cause.

That gets to a different problem. Project Ukraine has brought to light some hidden truths about the Global American Empire. One is that the vaunted American war machine is a paper tiger. Western wonder weapons were supposed to scare the Russians into submission, but instead they have been a colossal failure. Further, all of the predictions about how the war would unfold and how Russia would respond to Western efforts have turned out to be fantastically wrong.

Project Ukraine is looking like the Varian Disaster for the American empire. This is having a profound impact on the internal politics of the empire. After all, the people responsible for this catastrophe look a lot like the people who are mismanaging the unfolding catastrophe in the Levant. It is not hard for even the most dimwitted to make the connection because the people running foreign policy routinely claim primary allegiance to Israel.

There is also a changing attitude in the general public. Thirty years ago, Washington would not have had to do these marketing stunts to whip up support for Israel, because the public supported Israel. The public has clearly changed. The long allergy to thinking about the role of Jews in these foreign projects is gone and now you see things in the public square with regard to the role of Jews in politics that would not have seen the light of day a few decades ago.

This does not mean Americans are becoming antisemitic. It just means as ethnic and racial awareness break through the forcefield of mass media menticide, awareness of both Israel and Jewish influence in politics is growing. People notice that Ben Shapiro cares more about Israel than America. They are noticing that public officials love Israel more than they think about their alleged constituents. Just compare Nick Fuentes to Kevin MacDonald and you can see the change.

Taken together this explains the panic we are seeing. The erratic behavior and weird mask dropping are the result of the sudden awareness that the old arrangements with regards to Israel and the Jewish people are falling apart. Just as the American empire is reaching its denouement, the Jewish century is also reaching an end. As the world transitions to a multipolar order, the internal politics of the West must change with it in order for the West to survive.

For people whose lives were constructed around the old order being permanent, this emerging new order is causing panic. In fact, much of what makes up elite Jewish identity depends on the old imperial order remaining in place. That means the multipolar world and the new American politics are a mortal threat. The panic we are seeing, whether genuine or purchased as in the case of Republican politicians, is the result of the great change that is about to sweep the American empire.

WW3 Watch

Posted on May 7, 2024 by thezman

The first week of May has brought fresh worries that the war in Ukraine will lead to the third and final world war. On Twitter, “WW3” has been trending on and off as various rumors hit the system. Currently, the driver is statements from Russia that any attacks on Russia by Western troops operating in Ukraine will be viewed as an attack by that country on Russia, which means war. Russia also announced that she will be testing tactical nuclear weapons to underscore the point.

To understand what is happening we have to go back to the big funding bill passed by Congress at the end of April. The political class in Europe and the United States came away thinking this would turn the tide, but soon learned that the bill was about paying off creditors, not funding new weapons. There are no new weapons to send, at least not until after the November elections. The $60 billion was about paying the MIC and the bankers for money invested in Project Ukraine.

Of course, there are events on the battlefield. The Russians have broken through the center of Ukrainian defenses in a major way. All along the line of contact the Ukrainians are on the backfoot, but in the center they are at risk of collapse. The Russians managed to do this without committing large numbers of troops. It is assumed they will now commit to exploiting this gap in the Ukrainian lines with the half million men they have in reserve, waiting for better weather.

In light of these two factors, the Europeans have been making noises about introducing troops into Ukraine. The truth is, NATO has had people in Ukraine for ten years and ramped up their presence at the start of the war. These have been contractors or government employees operating as contractors. Some contractors just happen to employ former soldiers of NATO countries. Even so, it is enough of a fig leaf for the Russians to pretend they are not NATO soldiers.

Then there is the rumor that the French Foreign Legion was dispatched to Ukraine and possibly hit by Russian missiles. Regime media was dispatched to deny this claim, which means it is most certainly true. While technically not French troops, it is unclear if the Russians will buy it. They summoned the French and British ambassadors to repeat what has been said in the past, which is any attacks on Russia by troops from these countries will result in retaliation on these countries.

The final piece of the puzzle is Victory Day. This is when the Russian people celebrate their victory over the Nazis in the Great Patriotic War. Rumors have been swirling that Ukraine, with help from Britain and France, will launch attacks on Crimea as a way to embarrass Putin this week. For a week, NATO surveillance drones have been in the area and Ukraine has been sending drones to map Russian radar. The rumor is this is in preparation for a massive attack on the Kerch bridge.

The fact is the only way the Ukrainians can attack this bridge is by using NATO missiles like the British Storm Shadow or French Scalp. These would have to be launched in large numbers along with other missiles and drones. The Ukrainians lack the expertise to operate these weapons, so it means they will be operated by British and French personnel, either officially or unofficially. The Russians know this, as they recorded the Germans discussing this over the winter.

Put all of this together and you have a scenario in which NATO is growing desperate over what is happening on the battlefield and Russia is losing patience with these pipsqueak countries doing the bidding of the neocons in Washington. From the perspective of Russia, the only reason NATO is not coming to the table with a deal is they just want to see as many Russians die as possible or they are plotting an invasion after the November elections.

Despite the growing desperation in Europe, there remains this weird delusion about Russia that is at the root of these escalations. Since the start of the war, it has been assumed that at some point the Russians will blink. For three years NATO has upped the ante in terms of weapons and rhetoric, always assuming that this new wonder weapon or new threat will cause the Russians to back down. This never happens, but the belief remains unshakable.

The question is what happens when the Ukraine army begins to collapse? The signs are everywhere right now. Elite units are refusing to fight. There have been mass surrenders of newly deployed conscript units. The ideological units now spend their time making stylish videos, rather than fighting. The Russians are preparing for major summer offensives, which may cause the line of defense to collapse. This would leave the Ukraine army broken into pieces.

When the unthinkable begins to be reality, what will happen to that unshakable confidence that all it takes is one more escalation? Can the West accept defeat in Ukraine, or will they have no choice but to go bigger? The evidence to this point suggests they will think they have no choice but to go bigger, maybe declaring a no fly zone over Western Ukraine or introducing troops to guard the Dnieper. Maybe they take control of Odessa and dare the Russians to attack.

One glimmer of hope for those who do not want to see the world end in nuclear annihilation is Chinese ruler Xi Jinping Ping visiting Europe. His first stop was France to flatter the megalomaniacal Macron. The point of Xi’s trip is to convince the Europeans that their interests lie in finding a settlement with Russia. Making Macron the first visit suggests the Chinese know he is a simpleton who is easily flattered, but also the driving force for escalation in Ukraine.

What the Chinese could offer the Europeans is a way out of the trap they have built for themselves with the Russians. They can get to pretend to be important figures by cutting a deal with China to end the war in Ukraine. Of course, this would mean breaking with Washington, so it is a long shot. Maybe it is enough to get Macron to retreat on the escalatory rhetoric. That could be enough to prevent another round of escalation and avert the end of the world.

The Politics Of Failure

Posted on May 1, 2024 by thezman

One of the eternal truths of human society is that the people with real power are those with control of the economics of society. Whether the society is ruled by a king or a committee of girl bosses, the people who have the final say on all matters are those who control the wealth of society. The golden rule of human organization is “the man with the gold makes the rules.” Without much fanfare, we may have seen this rule work its magic in the big neocon funding bill.

The first thing to note about the money for Project Ukraine is most of the money will never turn up in Ukraine, at least not in the form of weapons. If you read the text of the bill most of the money is for slush funds the White House can use to replenish weapons taken off the shelf and sent to Ukraine over the last year. It appears the White House has been shipping weapons to Ukraine that were not paid for by Congress, so this created a debt to the Pentagon budget that is now repaid.

The number of actual weapons going to Ukraine as a result of this bill is a fraction of the sixty billion allocated. Ukraine needs advanced air defense systems, artillery tubes and artillery shells, but none of this is coming from Washington. The main reason for this is none of these things exist, at least not in surplus quantities. You cannot send what does not exist, even with billions to spend. Instead, Ukraine is getting what is available which is wheeled vehicles and surplus arms.

It is not all that clear that supplying Ukraine with what they need would make much of a difference, as Ukraine has another problem. The Ukraine army is running out of men and there is no money solution to this problem. It takes time to draft and train men to fight this sort of war. According to Ukraine sources, they need two hundred thousand men right now to be made whole. That deficit grows bigger by about a thousand men a day and there is no way to solve this problem.

The reality on the battlefield raises an important question. If there is no money solution to the problems facing Ukraine on the battlefield, then why spend sixty billion on this project when it must inevitably fail? That money could be used to other foreign policy adventures like the planned war with China over Taiwan. Of course, they could spend the money on Israel. There is always an appetite for that in Washington. Instead, they chose to shovel sixty billion into the Ukraine furnace.

The first clue is all the money allocated to the Pentagon for various undefined things supposedly related to Ukraine. It is clear the administration sent far more to Project Ukraine than Congress authorized. What most likely happened is something like the old arms-for-hostages game played in the Reagan years. Military contractors sent men and material to Ukraine on the promise they would be made whole with interest at some point in the future. The future arrived in that bill.

The other clue is the money being sent to Ukraine for economic support. It is so tangled up in the language of government that it would take years for an outsider to figure out what any of it means. This is how Washington launders trillions of dollars through and for friends of Washington. Billions will go into obscure programs administered by the administrative state and then those funds will end up in grants to NGO’s or contracts to vendors with obscure business models.

Of course, some will go to the Ukraine government, but with very specific instructions on how it is to be spent. There are many friends of Washington that have unpaid bills for services rendered to Ukraine. The vendors must be paid in dollars, not the worthless currency of Ukraine. Some of this money will be directed through Kiev to those friends of Washington. It would be a total coincidence if those vendors just happened to employ friends and family of important people in Congress.

Most likely this was the main reason for the sense of urgency. Over the last two years big players have been making deals with Ukraine for economic development, on the assurance that Ukraine would win the war. BlackRock, for example, made a number of deals with Kiev. BlackRock and JP Morgan have created a bank for rebuilding Ukraine, by which they mean looting Ukraine. Large global operators have been cutting deals with Ukraine since the start of the war.

What this means is heavy weight players have been given exclusive access to Ukraine in exchange for economic assistance now. Much like how the Pentagon “borrowed” from military contractors, the regime has been promising the usual suspects first rights to loot Ukraine after the war, in exchange for “investments” now. This is all done informally, but no one is hiding it. War has always been good for business, especially the banking business.

In other words, another purpose of this bill was to repay economic elites who had been talked into going along with the project. Keep in mind that players like BlackRock and JP Morgan have money in Russia as well. Now that it is clear that Ukraine will lose the war, they need to think about how the world looks after Project Ukraine. As you always see with a failing enterprise, the insiders are getting their money out before it becomes obvious to everyone that the enterprise is doomed.

This is all speculation based on the available data, but the facts on the ground are making it clear to everyone that Ukraine is finished. The text of this spending bill and the announced weapons transfers that are part of it all point to a rush for the exits rather than a new commitment to the project. The smart money just jumped out the window, carrying your tax dollars with them. That means the next phase is finding someone in Washington to blame for the failure of the enterprise.

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