The radio guy John Batchelor followed me on twitter so I followed him back and tuned into his program a few times. I don’t listen to a lot of talk radio and I have only listed to this program a handful of times. My sense is that he, like most pundits, is bearish on Donald Trump. I could be wrong here, but my sense is he is in tune with the conventional wisdom which says Trump has no chance to beat Clinton. Even though polls look good for Trump, the feeling is the deck is stacked against him.
One reason I think the conventional wisdom is wrong is they keep referring to the Red State/Blue State model as if it was written in stone and handed down by the gods. Batchelor keeps mentioning it in his analysis. It’s a very weird thing about the modern age, but people struggle to remember anything past a decade or so. It’s as if the present were permanent, never having changed and never changing. I’m not that old and I remember when elections were nothing like the Red State/Blue State model.
The other odd thing, something that you see on the Left all the time, is the absolute belief that the future is now. Progressives have been dreaming of the demographic paradise when America is majority-minority for so long, they seem to think it has happened. Maybe it is just honkyphobia, but they carry on like blacks and Hispanics have a veto over our elections. America is still roughly 70% white and many Hispanics prefer to ID as white, when given the choice.
Of course, there’s the elephant in the room. Hillary Clinton is the most unappealing candidate to lead a party since Mike Dukakis. Frankly, I’m probably being unfair to Dukakis, who was honest, but cursed with a dull personality. Hillary is a shrieking harpy, who makes your skin crawl. If you had her pop out of a closet in a haunted house, the authorities would shut it down for public safety reasons. To normal men, testicular cancer is more appealing than Clinton.
The bigger issue is the math problem. Here’s the back of the envelope demographic breakdown of the 2012 vote:
|Demographic Group||% of Vote||Obama Share||Vote Share|
|The Blue-Eyed Devil||73.7%||39.0%||28.7%|
|The Sacred People||13.4%||99.0%||13.3%|
|The New Sacred People||8.4%||75.0%||6.3%|
|Minorities That Get Into Stanford||3.8%||71.0%||2.7%|
I’m pulling this from census data and there are some rounding issues, but it is a good starting point when looking at this coming election. For starters, blacks came out in historic numbers, for obvious reasons. That’s not happening in 2016. Second, whites never warmed to Mittens. The white vote was down 2% from 2008 and that was down significantly from 2004. While Obama struggled with honkies, enough stayed home to allow the elevated black vote to carry him to victory.
Using current polling, we have a Clinton model like this:
|Demographic Group||% of Vote||Clinton Share||Vote Share|
|The Blue-Eyed Devil||74.70%||32.00%||23.90%|
|The Sacred People||12.00%||99.00%||11.88%|
|The New Sacred People||9.40%||75.00%||7.05%|
|Minorities That Get Into Stanford||3.00%||100.00%||3.00%|
What I’ve done here is assume a slight uptick in the white vote, based on history and what we are seeing in the primaries. I’m assuming the black vote returns to normal and I’m giving the Hispanics a bit of boost, even though the data does not suggest it. Keep in mind that the white vote was 77% in 2004. I could be understating it here, but I’m trying to be conservative and not sound like a Trump cheerleader. Even so, Hillary Clinton is looking at a ceiling of 46%, which matches up pretty well with the polling so far.
To make matters worse, recent polling has shown Trump doing much better with blacks than the typical Republican. He’s in the 10% range which is unheard of and suggests the black vote will be very depressed. Similarly, Trump is polling better than Romney with Hispanics. Put another way, the model in that graphic is the rosy scenario for Clinton at the moment. Unless things change, she could be facing a Hubert Humphey sized defeat.
That does not mean Trump is a lock. He has a number of hurdles to overcome before people see him as a safe and plausible choice for President. There’s also the Traitor Party Bill Kristol is trying to run as a straw to siphon votes from Trump. Even that nitwit Gary Johnson could become a home for the #nevertrump loons. These people are lackeys of the Custodial State and will do everything to help Clinton, someone they see as one of their own.
Even with all that, the math is terrible for Clinton. Counting on a straw in a presidential race is the very definition of desperation. John Anderson was not able to stop Reagan and Wallace could not stop Nixon. A candidate has to offer something more than disdain and a lecture. The Democrats are now the anti-white party and the anti-male party. In a country that is 70% white and 50% male, that’s going to be a losing hand in the long run. Having a shriveled hag as your candidate makes the task impossible.