Clinton Math

The radio guy John Batchelor followed me on twitter so I followed him back and tuned into his program a few times. I don’t listen to a lot of talk radio and I have only listed to this program a handful of times. My sense is that he, like most pundits, is bearish on Donald Trump. I could be wrong here, but my sense is he is in tune with the conventional wisdom which says Trump has no chance to beat Clinton. Even though polls look good for Trump, the feeling is the deck is stacked against him.

One reason I think the conventional wisdom is wrong is they keep referring to the Red State/Blue State model as if it was written in stone and handed down by the gods. Batchelor keeps mentioning it in his analysis. It’s a very weird thing about the modern age, but people struggle to remember anything past a decade or so. It’s as if the present were permanent, never having changed and never changing. I’m not that old and I remember when elections were nothing like the Red State/Blue State model.

The other odd thing, something that you see on the Left all the time, is the absolute belief that the future is now. Progressives have been dreaming of the demographic paradise when America is majority-minority for so long, they seem to think it has happened. Maybe it is just honkyphobia, but they carry on like blacks and Hispanics have a veto over our elections. America is still roughly 70% white and many Hispanics prefer to ID as white, when given the choice.

Of course, there’s the elephant in the room. Hillary Clinton is the most unappealing candidate to lead a party since Mike Dukakis. Frankly, I’m probably being unfair to Dukakis, who was honest, but cursed with a dull personality. Hillary is a shrieking harpy, who makes your skin crawl. If you had her pop out of a closet in a haunted house, the authorities would shut it down for public safety reasons. To normal men, testicular cancer is more appealing than Clinton.

The bigger issue is the math problem. Here’s the back of the envelope demographic breakdown of the 2012 vote:

Demographic Group % of Vote Obama Share Vote Share
The Blue-Eyed Devil 73.7% 39.0% 28.7%
The Sacred People 13.4% 99.0% 13.3%
The New Sacred People 8.4% 75.0% 6.3%
Minorities That Get Into Stanford 3.8% 71.0% 2.7%
Totals 99.3% 51.0%

I’m pulling this from census data and there are some rounding issues, but it is a good starting point when looking at this coming election. For starters, blacks came out in historic numbers, for obvious reasons. That’s not happening in 2016. Second, whites never warmed to Mittens. The white vote was down 2% from 2008 and that was down significantly from 2004. While Obama struggled with honkies, enough stayed home to allow the elevated black vote to carry him to victory.

Using current polling, we have a Clinton model like this:

Demographic Group % of Vote Clinton Share Vote Share
The Blue-Eyed Devil 74.70% 32.00% 23.90%
The Sacred People 12.00% 99.00% 11.88%
The New Sacred People 9.40% 75.00% 7.05%
Minorities That Get Into Stanford 3.00% 100.00% 3.00%
Totals 99.10% 45.83%

What I’ve done here is assume a slight uptick in the white vote, based on history and what we are seeing in the primaries. I’m assuming the black vote returns to normal and I’m giving the Hispanics a bit of boost, even though the data does not suggest it. Keep in mind that the white vote was 77% in 2004. I could be understating it here, but I’m trying to be conservative and not sound like a Trump cheerleader. Even so, Hillary Clinton is looking at a ceiling of 46%, which matches up pretty well with the polling so far.

To make matters worse, recent polling has shown Trump doing much better with blacks than the typical Republican. He’s in the 10% range which is unheard of and suggests the black vote will be very depressed. Similarly, Trump is polling better than Romney with Hispanics. Put another way, the model in that graphic is the rosy scenario for Clinton at the moment. Unless things change, she could be facing a Hubert Humphey sized defeat.

That does not mean Trump is a lock. He has a number of hurdles to overcome before people see him as a safe and plausible choice for President. There’s also the Traitor Party Bill Kristol is trying to run as a straw to siphon votes from Trump. Even that nitwit Gary Johnson could become a home for the #nevertrump loons. These people are lackeys of the Custodial State and will do everything to help Clinton, someone they see as one of their own.

Even with all that, the math is terrible for Clinton. Counting on a straw in a presidential race is the very definition of desperation. John Anderson was not able to stop Reagan and Wallace could not stop Nixon. A candidate has to offer something more than disdain and a lecture. The Democrats are now the anti-white party and the anti-male party. In a country that is 70% white and 50% male, that’s going to be a losing hand in the long run. Having a shriveled hag as your candidate makes the task impossible.

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Lorenzo
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Lorenzo

I listen to Batchelor now and then. More than bearish, he really, really dislikes Trump.

RobM
Member
RobM

Good analysis. I’m thinking landslide. Preference cascade for Trump combined with an implosion on the left. The left is emotion-driven, and are lashing out in anger as their dreams of progress are seemingly failing all around them. Even as they’ve won this or that issue, it’s never enough. The progressives are going to implode and hard. And as they react to the rejection, their actions and statements will only accelerate their demise. Normal folks are fed up. There will be gnashing of teeth and hurt feelings.

LetsPlay
Member
LetsPlay

Sun Tzu – “Know your enemy” While the left might have a hissy fit about losing this round, make no mistake. They will view it as losing only one round of the overall war. They will regroup and redouble their efforts. And with a radical, socialist infestation now permeating our entire government and social infrastructure you can anticipate BDS-squared. Unless Trump and a supportive Congress are willing to back his “cleaning house,” especially of the mechanisms of the military, justice and the demolition of multiple departments e.g. education, energy, BLM, etc., the next president will not only be hamstrung in… Read more »

BillH
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BillH

Real good point. One thing I haven’t heard about nearly enough from Trump is how dead set he is on cleaning house, and how deep he is inclined to go with it. I get the impression that if he gets his immigration wishes, he’ll slack off and let the corrupt bureaucracy just keep ambling on.

Rich
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Rich

Batches or is good man but he’s a Rockefeller Republican

He’s gets all his political opinions from the WSJ global cabal.

Rich
Guest
Rich

Lmao – that last comment was almost Turrets like.

I got auto-corrected to stupid.

james wilson
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james wilson

Plus, there are the wild cards of leftoids coming unhinged (more unhinged) as Trump advances. Ugly disruptions of political gatherings, riots, perhaps more. That would spell a landslide IMO, because Trump is not the man to intimidate.

Lulu
Guest
Lulu

That whole Red State/Blue State thing started as a map on election night. 2000? Was it Rather or another of the bogus journos who used it? (I could look it up but then no one would have the fun of correcting me.)

Nedd Ludd
Guest
Nedd Ludd

Hi Lulu,
It was the late Tim Russert. Tip O’Neill rumpswab, and host of NBC’s Meet the Press who introduced the
Red State – Blue State map during the 2000 election.
Of course you can’t help but notice that the progressive Mr Russert assigned blue (the color of loyalty & stability) to the libtard Democrat states and red (the color of hotheads & revolution) to the Republican states.
NBC wouldn’t want to send out the wrong message about New York ,Mass or Commiefornia.
We’ve been living with this subliminal leftist propaganda ever since.

Larry Darrell
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Larry Darrell

Hopefully do the same analysis on the 10 states that matter when data are available – I worry lots of the honkies are in Dakota and Utah.

Karl Horst (Germany)
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Karl Horst (Germany)

I think from a geopolitical perspective the rest of the world will favor Trump and would be more willing to work with him. Say what you will, but as far as global politics, it is still a men’s club. Russia, Asia and the middle east have zero respect for a woman, less for Clinton because they see right through her. Europeans, because of the way they have feminized politics, will obviously favor Clinton. The fact is, Europe is not a threat to anyone (except it’s own citizens). However, those countries, especially those who are not wearing progressive-shaded glasses and do… Read more »

Buckaroo Banzai
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Buckaroo Banzai

“Russia, Asia and the middle east have zero respect for a woman, less for Clinton because they see right through her.” They might not respect her as a woman, but they respect her in more important ways, Karl. Look at how Clinton ran the State Dept through the Clinton Foundation– she ably and repeatedly demonstrated that she will sell out to foreign interests, and that when you buy her, she stays bought. All right out in the open where everybody can see it! An open, transparent marketplace where American interests can be freely sold out to the highest foreign bidder.… Read more »

Kent
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Kent

Honkyphobia. Never heard that before. So funny. It should be a new buzzword.

John the River
Guest

A few columns in the NYT and the AP seem to be testing the waters on a possible switch at the Democrat’s convention to replace their two losers from a short list; Biden, Warren, or Kerry. In California (possibly to blunt Trump’s reported rise among the Latinos) mobs of lawless protesters with Mexican flags are attacking Trump supports at his CA rally, fighting police and burning American Flags. This may backfire by creating even more general support for Trump, time will tell. Taken together I think it shows that ‘The Vast Left-wing Conspiracy’ is beginning to adjust to the shock… Read more »

Jim O\'Neil
Guest

I do wonder though how the graveyard vote and the ̶i̶l̶l̶e̶g̶a̶l̶ criminal alien (Remember it’s racist to ask a voter to prove citizenship) will affect the election.

notsothoreau
Guest
notsothoreau

I really think both parties are at risk if they decide to run someone that hasn’t been running in the primaries. It’s not going to fly with a ticked off electorate. I find it humorous that they are amazed that Oregon could go for Trump. Oregon used to elect Republican governors until 1987. Tom McCall is still fondly remembered. Oregon voted to deny driver’s licenses to illegals.

Orange Hat
Guest
Orange Hat

Women are nothing if not judgemental. I’m suspicious that Clinton really has the support of women because she is…..a woman, especially since its commonly accepted that women dont have the gender solidarity that men have. As Z says she is a hag, a shrill, eye popping, demented grandmother with zero achievements or appeal to balance the epic failures and nasty conspiracies that trail her around like a bad smell.

Also Trump has his not so secret weapon beautiful Ivanka that he has been holding back.

Just how I see it.

Member

Those charts are missing significant sub groups. Where are the left handed piccolo players? Look, I’m not a Trump guy. Going in he was my 6th or 7th choice. And that’s because only 6 or 7 of them had as much as a slim chance to be the nominee. Well, what’s happened happened. It’s The Donald against Hillary, or maybe a player to be named later. Want to know who’s going to win? Turn off the radio, dial up some cat pictures on the TRS-80, throw an old shoe at the boob tube, then get out of the house and… Read more »

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