Clinton Math

The radio guy John Batchelor followed me on twitter so I followed him back and tuned into his program a few times. I don’t listen to a lot of talk radio and I have only listed to this program a handful of times. My sense is that he, like most pundits, is bearish on Donald Trump. I could be wrong here, but my sense is he is in tune with the conventional wisdom which says Trump has no chance to beat Clinton. Even though polls look good for Trump, the feeling is the deck is stacked against him.

One reason I think the conventional wisdom is wrong is they keep referring to the Red State/Blue State model as if it was written in stone and handed down by the gods. Batchelor keeps mentioning it in his analysis. It’s a very weird thing about the modern age, but people struggle to remember anything past a decade or so. It’s as if the present were permanent, never having changed and never changing. I’m not that old and I remember when elections were nothing like the Red State/Blue State model.

The other odd thing, something that you see on the Left all the time, is the absolute belief that the future is now. Progressives have been dreaming of the demographic paradise when America is majority-minority for so long, they seem to think it has happened. Maybe it is just honkyphobia, but they carry on like blacks and Hispanics have a veto over our elections. America is still roughly 70% white and many Hispanics prefer to ID as white, when given the choice.

Of course, there’s the elephant in the room. Hillary Clinton is the most unappealing candidate to lead a party since Mike Dukakis. Frankly, I’m probably being unfair to Dukakis, who was honest, but cursed with a dull personality. Hillary is a shrieking harpy, who makes your skin crawl. If you had her pop out of a closet in a haunted house, the authorities would shut it down for public safety reasons. To normal men, testicular cancer is more appealing than Clinton.

The bigger issue is the math problem. Here’s the back of the envelope demographic breakdown of the 2012 vote:

Demographic Group % of Vote Obama Share Vote Share
The Blue-Eyed Devil 73.7% 39.0% 28.7%
The Sacred People 13.4% 99.0% 13.3%
The New Sacred People 8.4% 75.0% 6.3%
Minorities That Get Into Stanford 3.8% 71.0% 2.7%
Totals 99.3% 51.0%

I’m pulling this from census data and there are some rounding issues, but it is a good starting point when looking at this coming election. For starters, blacks came out in historic numbers, for obvious reasons. That’s not happening in 2016. Second, whites never warmed to Mittens. The white vote was down 2% from 2008 and that was down significantly from 2004. While Obama struggled with honkies, enough stayed home to allow the elevated black vote to carry him to victory.

Using current polling, we have a Clinton model like this:

Demographic Group % of Vote Clinton Share Vote Share
The Blue-Eyed Devil 74.70% 32.00% 23.90%
The Sacred People 12.00% 99.00% 11.88%
The New Sacred People 9.40% 75.00% 7.05%
Minorities That Get Into Stanford 3.00% 100.00% 3.00%
Totals 99.10% 45.83%

What I’ve done here is assume a slight uptick in the white vote, based on history and what we are seeing in the primaries. I’m assuming the black vote returns to normal and I’m giving the Hispanics a bit of boost, even though the data does not suggest it. Keep in mind that the white vote was 77% in 2004. I could be understating it here, but I’m trying to be conservative and not sound like a Trump cheerleader. Even so, Hillary Clinton is looking at a ceiling of 46%, which matches up pretty well with the polling so far.

To make matters worse, recent polling has shown Trump doing much better with blacks than the typical Republican. He’s in the 10% range which is unheard of and suggests the black vote will be very depressed. Similarly, Trump is polling better than Romney with Hispanics. Put another way, the model in that graphic is the rosy scenario for Clinton at the moment. Unless things change, she could be facing a Hubert Humphey sized defeat.

That does not mean Trump is a lock. He has a number of hurdles to overcome before people see him as a safe and plausible choice for President. There’s also the Traitor Party Bill Kristol is trying to run as a straw to siphon votes from Trump. Even that nitwit Gary Johnson could become a home for the #nevertrump loons. These people are lackeys of the Custodial State and will do everything to help Clinton, someone they see as one of their own.

Even with all that, the math is terrible for Clinton. Counting on a straw in a presidential race is the very definition of desperation. John Anderson was not able to stop Reagan and Wallace could not stop Nixon. A candidate has to offer something more than disdain and a lecture. The Democrats are now the anti-white party and the anti-male party. In a country that is 70% white and 50% male, that’s going to be a losing hand in the long run. Having a shriveled hag as your candidate makes the task impossible.

42 thoughts on “Clinton Math

  1. Pingback: Celebrate Today, Fight Tomorrow | The Z Blog

  2. Those charts are missing significant sub groups. Where are the left handed piccolo players?

    Look, I’m not a Trump guy. Going in he was my 6th or 7th choice. And that’s because only 6 or 7 of them had as much as a slim chance to be the nominee. Well, what’s happened happened. It’s The Donald against Hillary, or maybe a player to be named later.

    Want to know who’s going to win? Turn off the radio, dial up some cat pictures on the TRS-80, throw an old shoe at the boob tube, then get out of the house and listen. The barber shop, the grocery store, Denny’s, McDonald’s, your favorite watering hole. You don’t have to talk, just listen. I’m hearing more political buzz out there than I have since maybe 1980. That’s the year Ronnie just stole the pants off the prognosticators and made them look silly. Prognosticator, that’s a college boy word meaning a guesser with a smooth line. All the experts, the smart guys, the wise men are dazed and confused. None of their shit works anymore. They’re just babbling, filling the air time and grabbing eyeballs.

    So what am I hearing? Doesn’t mean much. It’s just my little corner of the world. What I can say is that I don’t think it’s going to be close. Which way? Damned if I know.

  3. Women are nothing if not judgemental. I’m suspicious that Clinton really has the support of women because she is…..a woman, especially since its commonly accepted that women dont have the gender solidarity that men have. As Z says she is a hag, a shrill, eye popping, demented grandmother with zero achievements or appeal to balance the epic failures and nasty conspiracies that trail her around like a bad smell.

    Also Trump has his not so secret weapon beautiful Ivanka that he has been holding back.

    Just how I see it.

  4. I really think both parties are at risk if they decide to run someone that hasn’t been running in the primaries. It’s not going to fly with a ticked off electorate. I find it humorous that they are amazed that Oregon could go for Trump. Oregon used to elect Republican governors until 1987. Tom McCall is still fondly remembered. Oregon voted to deny driver’s licenses to illegals.

  5. I do wonder though how the graveyard vote and the ̶i̶l̶l̶e̶g̶a̶l̶ criminal alien (Remember it’s racist to ask a voter to prove citizenship) will affect the election.

  6. A few columns in the NYT and the AP seem to be testing the waters on a possible switch at the Democrat’s convention to replace their two losers from a short list; Biden, Warren, or Kerry.
    In California (possibly to blunt Trump’s reported rise among the Latinos) mobs of lawless protesters with Mexican flags are attacking Trump supports at his CA rally, fighting police and burning American Flags. This may backfire by creating even more general support for Trump, time will tell.
    Taken together I think it shows that ‘The Vast Left-wing Conspiracy’ is beginning to adjust to the shock and surprise of Trump’s success and Hillary’s flop.

    For the ‘Tin-foil Hat’ report, the rioting (especially if the Blacks join in for the Summer Rioting Season) could be planned in advance as the excuse for Obama to delay or cancel the Nov elections. Reluctantly he would ‘agree’ to stay on until the Crisis is past. “There will be War” isn’t just the title of a Pournelle anthology. We are living in interesting times…indeed.

    • I wrote a post a year ago thinking through the Torricelli Gambit. There are several big problems with it. For starters, there’s no method for removing her from the ballot by force. She has 1769 delegate that were won and are committed to her by rule. She needs 613 more to clinch the nomination. That’s not going to happen without Super Delegates. There are 713 delegates available via primary and all are awarded proportionality. Given what’s happening in California, she will net out 400 at best, making her short by a couple of hundred.

      If the Democrats wanted to dump her, they would have to organize the Super Delegates to stand aside, which is not easy when many are being paid by Team Clinton. 544 are already committed to her and many are by rule forced to back her. It would take a mammoth effort to deny her the nomination on the first ballot. Maybe if she is indicted, something I just don’t see happening, she would be forced to drop out. Unlike The Torch, Clintons cannot be shamed into anything.

      Now, if the party went to Team Obama and laid out a scenario where they could force her out after an indictment, then maybe it happens. I still think Team Obama is happy to watch her circle the bowl. Replace her with Fake Indian and anything can happen. The worst thing for Obama’s earnings is for the Democrats to win in 2016. Obama will become a billionaire as the shadow leader of the cult.

      • The Democrats control of The J (formerly known as ‘The Justice Department’) through Obama administration can, I think, control that switcheroo. As much as Hillary wants to be President she fears going to prison more. A step-down, switch support to Kerry (my bet) and collect a pardon on the way out.
        Now if their co-coreligionists at the GOP can hold up their end with some scenario that denies Trump the nod and fields a pliable puppet. If both sides execute the same play then the proles have no game and (most importantly) are put in their place.
        It’s going to be a long, hot summer.

        For a lot of people the ‘Bathroom Amendment’ was an eye-opener, a amendment on a spending bill that backdoors (oops!) the President’s ridiculous demands to the nations public school systems on bathroom usage by the ‘wrong’ sex. We gave the GOP the House, the Senate; they control the legislative process, and this stuff happens? By accident? (as one cornered Rep claimed after the fact). Time for the Club of Dead Political Parties to get a new member, or two.

      • Lyndon Johnson said never trust a man until you have his pecker in your pocket. The super delegates will not abandon the Clintons, even if Hilary is indicted. She might release them to keep from going to jail, but I think a low end plea bargain is more likely. Cornered rats bare their teeth and keep fighting.

  7. I think from a geopolitical perspective the rest of the world will favor Trump and would be more willing to work with him. Say what you will, but as far as global politics, it is still a men’s club. Russia, Asia and the middle east have zero respect for a woman, less for Clinton because they see right through her. Europeans, because of the way they have feminized politics, will obviously favor Clinton. The fact is, Europe is not a threat to anyone (except it’s own citizens). However, those countries, especially those who are not wearing progressive-shaded glasses and do not favor the west, are going to remain problematic. The last thing this world needs is a president of a super power who acts like the mayor of Köln and thinks holding hands and singing kumbaya is going to solve major world issues.

    • The funny thing about this is that the mass media of the day mad Reagan out to be a war mongering loon that scared the world. In reality the world was quite confident that Reagan was not spoiling for a shooting war with anyone, much less a nuclear one with Russia. In contrast, Obama and Bush have been horribly destabilizing. There’s no escaping the fact that the Million Muslim March into Europe is America’s fault. The world is a much more dangerous place thanks to our “helping” to fix it.

      I’m a patriotic American, but we are terrible at foreign affairs. Trump, to his credit, seems to favor a mild isolationism. Leave the muzzies alone, let the Euros fight their own battles, etc. Sometimes doing nothing is the right thing to do.

      • The Europeans own the majority of the blame for their invasion. They are letting it happen and even trying to punish Eastern European countries who won’t participate in their suicide pact. They are also the ones who thought it a great idea to bomb Libya into chaos – and then talked the idiot American President and Sec State into helping them since they were in the process of scrapping their own aircraft carriers.

      • @ theZman – “…we are terrible at foreign affairs.” I have to agree with you on that. If you ask the average German on the street, they blame our current situation on two specific American leaders; President Reagan for bringing down the Wall and President Bush for destabilizing the middle east. Frau Merkel simply made a bad situation worse with her misguided refugee policy compounded by EU leadership which continues their rhetoric of appeasing Muslims in favor of the native population.

        Personally, I liked Mr. Regan and I think he was the last decent American president who seemed to actually care about your country and its citizens. Clinton and the Bush family were (and are) only interested in crony politics, while Obama has done a wonderful job of keeping his promise to fundamentally change America.

        • The end of the Cold War should have been a great boon to the West. At least for America, we pissed it away on foreign wars and global piracy.

          • The 90’s were really nice – sort of a lull before they got around to finding the next big crisis to justify vastly expanding the federal government.

        • I don’t know if you really know what the average German thinks, but if you’re right, he/she must have a character disorder of some kind, i.e., the propensity to blame others for all of your problems.

    • “Russia, Asia and the middle east have zero respect for a woman, less for Clinton because they see right through her.”
      They might not respect her as a woman, but they respect her in more important ways, Karl. Look at how Clinton ran the State Dept through the Clinton Foundation– she ably and repeatedly demonstrated that she will sell out to foreign interests, and that when you buy her, she stays bought. All right out in the open where everybody can see it! An open, transparent marketplace where American interests can be freely sold out to the highest foreign bidder. Honestly, what more could a foreign leader ask for? Well, any foreign leader who isn’t Putin, that is.

  8. Hopefully do the same analysis on the 10 states that matter when data are available – I worry lots of the honkies are in Dakota and Utah.

  9. That whole Red State/Blue State thing started as a map on election night. 2000? Was it Rather or another of the bogus journos who used it? (I could look it up but then no one would have the fun of correcting me.)

    • Hi Lulu,
      It was the late Tim Russert. Tip O’Neill rumpswab, and host of NBC’s Meet the Press who introduced the
      Red State – Blue State map during the 2000 election.
      Of course you can’t help but notice that the progressive Mr Russert assigned blue (the color of loyalty & stability) to the libtard Democrat states and red (the color of hotheads & revolution) to the Republican states.
      NBC wouldn’t want to send out the wrong message about New York ,Mass or Commiefornia.
      We’ve been living with this subliminal leftist propaganda ever since.

  10. Plus, there are the wild cards of leftoids coming unhinged (more unhinged) as Trump advances. Ugly disruptions of political gatherings, riots, perhaps more. That would spell a landslide IMO, because Trump is not the man to intimidate.

  11. Batches or is good man but he’s a Rockefeller Republican

    He’s gets all his political opinions from the WSJ global cabal.

  12. Good analysis. I’m thinking landslide. Preference cascade for Trump combined with an implosion on the left. The left is emotion-driven, and are lashing out in anger as their dreams of progress are seemingly failing all around them. Even as they’ve won this or that issue, it’s never enough. The progressives are going to implode and hard. And as they react to the rejection, their actions and statements will only accelerate their demise. Normal folks are fed up. There will be gnashing of teeth and hurt feelings.

    • I was in a diner this morning and they had one of the morning shows on. I could not hear the TV well, but they were talking about a recent poll showing Trump doing well with Hispanics. Everyone in the diner was watching. The women were very interested. My hunch is a lot of white people see that as validation. Voting for Obama was “the right thing to do” for a lot of them even thought Obama was a bit of a weirdo. No such obligation exists with Clinton.

      • Trump is the kind of personality that Latin Americans like to elect back home. Bombastic, showy rich guy with a really hot young wife. He’s a recognizable type for them.

        I married a Chinese guy and I think East Asians are going to go more for Trump too. I think a lot of them are starting to clue into the fact that in the Bold New Diverse America they are going to be, well, slightly different looking white people, and not Diverse. Asian Americans are also heavy in industries that are getting slammed with H1-Bs. Zuckerberg doesn’t want to hire my husband any more than he does a white American guy. He’d rather have a FOB indentured servant.

        The Asians that have been here a relatively long time have to realize that turning us into Mexico North is going to end poorly for them. There’s also a dislike among many older, more established Chinese for the new, lower class people coming in today who are refusing to learn English and taking welfare. A lot of the people that came earlier in the century were the Chinese educated elite, rather than peasants, which is part of why their kids did so well once they got here.

        • East Asians have all the traits that indicate conservative politics and local politics. My bet is they eventually vote that way on a consistent basis. South Asians we get in the US also tend that way.

          • Interesting to me was the way Trump supporters sort of crept out of the shadows. So many friends and relatives, happy to find out that I was one of “theirs”. I was open to someone else, but none of the other 16 came up with anything worth listening to. I chalked it up to lack of imagination plus lack of courage. Deadly combination.

          • There is a 3rd World community right here in the US, and bling and swagger are what is expected. Black church goers expect that the pastor should be flashy and bombastic, and successful, even if they themselves are not. Their leaders are expected to be all sizzle and snap. Look at “Rev” Al. They’ll still vote as a monolith, because their gov’t network is hugely powerful, but there is some fallout among the bling set even now.

        • I think a lot of Hispanic and black males will go for Trump as they did for Terminator in Ca. – especially since the Dem. is female – I don’t think the more macho cultures are keen to vote female, especially a venomous harpy.

    • Sun Tzu – “Know your enemy” While the left might have a hissy fit about losing this round, make no mistake. They will view it as losing only one round of the overall war. They will regroup and redouble their efforts. And with a radical, socialist infestation now permeating our entire government and social infrastructure you can anticipate BDS-squared. Unless Trump and a supportive Congress are willing to back his “cleaning house,” especially of the mechanisms of the military, justice and the demolition of multiple departments e.g. education, energy, BLM, etc., the next president will not only be hamstrung in his efforts but will be undermined at every turn.

      • Real good point. One thing I haven’t heard about nearly enough from Trump is how dead set he is on cleaning house, and how deep he is inclined to go with it. I get the impression that if he gets his immigration wishes, he’ll slack off and let the corrupt bureaucracy just keep ambling on.

  13. I listen to Batchelor now and then. More than bearish, he really, really dislikes Trump.

    • I could not peg his ideology from the times I listened. Why he started following me is a mystery, but I have a strange audience.

      • Maybe there’s something wrong with me, but I’d rather have my hair pulled out than listen to any radio pundit. Not when there’s good jazz to be had… excellent brain cleaner in times like these.

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