I have no love for Karl Rove, but you have to respect his political skills. He got George Bush elected twice and that was not small feat. Bush was one of the worst politicians we’ve seen in decades. By that I mean he lacks the sociopathic charm we prefer in our modern politicians. That and he struggled to string a sentence together. Americans like smooth talking fabulists, who lie on spec. Getting Bush into the White House took extraordinary skills by his team.
That’s why it was fun watching Rove launch of a missile at the old battleship called Hillary Clinton. Politics is a dirty business and Rove is a pro. He knows it is a good time to put that thought out there. Clinton is only getting older and every time she stumbles or looks dazed in public, the brain damage issue will come to mind. Long after people forget about this, they will remember that Clinton has brain damage.
Anyway, just for fun I thought I would look into who else will be running on the Democrat side. Once the fall election is over, the battle to line up donors, fixers and strategists will be on for both parties. A weak Clinton should draw in some challengers with nothing to lose from making a run at her. Plus, the crazy wing has never loved Clinton. That’s why they backed Obama in 2008. It was mostly out of spite. They will be looking for another horse to ride in 2016.
Crazy Joe Biden: It has long been assumed that Crazy Joe will stagger off the stage in 2016 and that will be the end of his time in politics. He’s no spring chicken and has a habit of saying insane things in public. He is also well regarded among the party establishment. He could challenge Clinton as the establishment candidate. His loyal service to Obama has also won him a lot of friends among blacks. Vice Presidents have enormous advantages when running in a primary. Odds: 2-to-1
Fake Indian: Every liberal woman I know loves Fake Indian. She is a darling of the Left, many of whom think Obama let them down. She is a throwback to the 1960’s Left in that she yaps a lot of about the poor and disadvantaged. She is not young, but she is younger than Clinton and Biden. The other thing she has going for her is she can pitch herself as an outsider and a reformer. There’s enough distance between her and the Obama administration to plausibly call her an “insurgent” candidate. Odds: 5-to-1
Knuckles O’Malley: Martin O’Malley is a long way from his days of threatening to punch Baltimore radio hosts. He is the quintessential meritocratic climber. He’s also running the Democratic Governors Association, which means he gets to run around the country raising money and collecting favors. Like Bill Clinton, he comes from a terminally corrupt state and that means he has baggage. He may have knocked up a local news bunny at some point. But, he also has a disarming presentation on the stump and he is a liberal. Odd: 20-to-1
Brian “Nuts” Schweitzer: The nut-roots types loved this guy and they wanted him to take a shot at the open senate seat in Montana. The crazies have this image in their head of the perfect candidate. He is a combination Huey Long and FDR. They are convinced a populist appeal will bring working class white males out to vote. They are right, but that has no place in the party now. Odds: 50-to-1
Mini-me: Duval Patrick is term limited out and will have nothing to so running for president is a good way to fill the time. It is also a good way to audition for jobs. He is also deeply connected to the Axelrod operation in Chicago and that means he will be able to tap into the Obama money machine. As the only black guy in the field, he will get a lot of support from his people in the primaries. Odds: 50-to-1
Andrew Cuomo: His old man never ran, probably because he was so mobbed up, it would have got him killed. Andrew Cuomo does not have the problem. He’s another guy who could cut into Clinton’s support with establishment democrats. He probably does not run if Clinton runs. Plus he knows this is most likely a GOP election to lose. He may be better of waiting until 2020. Odds: 100-to-1
Bottom Line: Clinton runs and wins the nomination.
Fake Indian gets my vote. Fuck the financial overlords.
Since the Depression, I can only think of one candidate who ran and won the Presidency as VP.
Look at the ones who won the nomination. VP’s, when they run, almost always win the nomination. Dan Quayle is the only failure. Gore, Bush, Mondale, Humphrey, Nixon all won their party’s nomination when they ran for it. The sample size is small and who knows what would have happened if the other VP’s had run. The benefits of being the VP within the party are substantial. If he runs, Biden will have instant credibility making it easier for him to raise money and build a ground game. Only Cankles has those advantages.