One of the most fascinating things about any revolution is the mistakes made by all sides leading up to the revolution. The errors of the people in charge tend to be the most obvious, as the winners focus on them as justification. “The king did this, so we had no choice but to do that” is the formula. Objective analysis usually reveals that the motives of the ruler and the revolutionaries were far less coherent. In retrospect, revolutions tend to look like a series of massive blunders.
The reason, of course, is that both sides of the fight tend to see the other side as a black box. They only see the actions of the other side, without understanding the motives or reasoning. With limited evidence, they fashion explanations that tend to be self-serving and petty. The aristocracy in France could have done a lot of things to head off disaster, but instead they made one error after another. From the outside, what was driven by ignorance appeared to be driven by malice.
There is a cascading effect in revolutions. The initial conditions that lead to general unhappiness soon give way to anger over specific events. One group gets angry over something, and they no longer see the ruler as reasonable. Then another event triggers different people and before long every event adds to the avalanche of unrest. In between, there seems to be some calming, but in reality, it is just the energy building up for another burst of anger and frustration at the next event.
We may be in one of those periods of calm. The dropping of the Covid nonsense and the start of summer has people thinking of things other than politics, despite the signs that this summer will be ugly in many ways. Soaring prices for food and fuel are always bad omens, bit so far people seem to be ignoring them. Similarly, the building crime wave is not getting much attention. Antiwhite violence is already a problem, but white people seem to be looking past it for now.
Even if the revolution takes a holiday this summer, there are a couple of big storm clouds on the horizon. Both are Supreme Court cases. The first one is an abortion case, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. This will take up the question of the constitutionality of a 2018 Mississippi state law that bans abortions after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy. People who claim to know about these things believe the court could overturn or sharply limit Roe v. Wade.
The other case is a gun case. The court, in NY State Rifle & Pistol Assoc. v. Corlett, will review a New York law that requires individuals to get a license to carry a concealed gun outside the home. In District of Columbia v. Heller the court ruled that the Second Amendment provides an individual right to keep a handgun at home for self-defense but did not address the carry issue. Many think the courts will rule that carrying a firearm is equally protected by the Second Amendment.
If one were to identify two key beliefs of American civic nationalism, one would be faith in the courts to enforce the Constitution, if we get the right judges in place. The other is faith in the Second Amendment as the ultimate backstop. The whole purpose to voting for so-called conservatives is to eventually get a court that will strike down many of the left-wing programs, like abortion. Along the same lines, that same court will affirm the Second Amendment, thus ensuring people will never fear their government.
There is a good bet that the court rules against the civic nationalist position on both of these issues in the fall. The abortion case is the most likely shock to the system, as this was the reason to support Trump. He stacked the court with his people and now they are supposed to deliver. The Christian conservatives ignored Trump’s rather obvious personal failings because he promised to deliver judges. He did his part and now the judges have to live up to their end of the bargain.
History says they will find a way to fink on the people. In theory, it is a 6-3 court, but John Roberts has miraculously transformed into Ruth Bader Ginsberg, so it is really a 5-4 court again. Gorsuch is the most likely to find a reason to vote with the far-left. He has already found a way to fink on his side. In Bostock v. Clayton County, Gorsuch wrote the majority opinion granting men in dresses special rights. It is not hard to image him flipping to the far-left on this abortion case as well.
The gun case is a bit different, as the court could find some technical problem with prior rulings and send it back for rehearing. It is also not the radical change that the abortion case presents. Extending Heller to include carrying a firearm outside the home will have no impact on most of the country. Still, given the nature of Washington, it is not hard to imagine a similar dynamic as the abortion case. This time it would be Barrett siding with the far-left, sighting some nonsense about black victimization.
The regime has already begun to let the court know that they better rule the correct way, or their will be consequences. Senator Blumenthal from Connecticut is the first out of the gate threatening the judges. It will not be long before he is joined by other prominent Democrats, as well as the media. Then you have the extortion rackets run by the FBI and other players. The odds of the court ruling in favor of the civic nationalist position are very low, but their expectations are very high.
This is shaping up to be one of those unforced regime mistakes that seem to characterize every revolution. The abortion case in particular is the one that could radicalize a lot of civic nationalists. Christian conservatives are already on the edge, given the overtly anti-Christian pogroms run by the ruling class. If the court finks on them in the fall, it could be the last straw. They will conclude that there is no path forward in conventional politics and begin to organize outside of the system.
Predicting the future is always a mugs game, but history says that the regime does not miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. The combination of paranoia and partisan hatred keeps leading them to the wrong decision. The wise move would be to give the people a win in the courts on these issues, but wisdom requires wise men, and the ruling class is desperately short of them. Instead, the regime will be dispensing truckloads of red pills to civic nationalists when the court returns in the fall.
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