Historical analogies seem like useful tools for understanding current events. Everyone has heard, “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it” a bazillion times. Of course, our analogies are always to past disasters. Most people reading this can probably name a dozen people that have been compared to Hitler and another dozen examples of Western leaders being compared to Neville Chamberlain. For the most part, our analogies to the past are always warnings of pending doom. No one ever compares the present to some tranquil time in the past.
Humans have limited information processing capacity so nature devised ways for us to quickly process information. Pattern matching is one fast way to locate danger in a very crowded scene. If a current event resembles a past event in some way, then maybe they have other things in common. The logical shorthand is AX:BX::AY:BY, with X being the commonality we know and Y being the commonality we inferred. This sort of reasoning is really only useful in avoiding danger, thus the salience of the Santayana quote. Otherwise, he would have said “blessed” rather than “doomed.”
The thing about Hitler, Genghis Khan, Attila the Hun and so on is that they had no obvious analog in the past. The events in Germany after the Great War were incredibly unique. In fact, there is no good example from the past to which they compare. Similarly, the world had never seen the likes of Genghis Khan, which is why the Mongols had so much success. One big reason Attila was so scary to the Romans was that he was clearly a different breed of Hun. Because he was not like his predecessors, he was unpredictable and therefore a very frightening figure to the Romans.
Of course, this is why comparing every petty dictator to Hitler is silly. Saddam was not Hitler. Qaddafi was not Hitler either. Obama cutting a deal with the Iranians may be stupid, but that does not make him Chamberlain. In other words, our attempts to understand the present by finding scary analogs in the past has led to one blunder after another in the Middle East. Our pathological need to remember the lessons of Vietnam made success in Afghanistan an impossibility. Because we remembered the past, we made entirely new and avoidable mistakes.
The point of this is that the upcoming election is being compared to 1980, 1968, 1932 (you know who) and Trump has been compared to everyone from Hitler to Andrew Jackson. Everyone is groping around for a useful historical analogy in order to make sense of this highly improbably election. The most important political office on the planet will either be filled by the wife of a former President or filled by a billionaire real estate developer. It is not exactly Henry Tudor versus Richard III, but the consequences are probably going to be much more important.
This election is looking like an extreme outlier. Hillary Clinton is the only presidential candidate to have been accused of violating espionage laws. She may have beat the rap but name another candidate that had even a whiff of traitorous intent. Trump is the first novice to run as a major party candidate since Wendell Willkie in 1940 and that is not a great comparison as Willkie was involved in politics his whole life. Other than stroking checks to candidates for favors, Trump has not been very political.
Then there is the fact that both parties are a mess at the moment. The Democrats have a collection of geezers at the top and no bench. Their “young guns” are still in college. No one really wanted Clinton, but there was no one else so she is the nominee. On the GOP side, Trump is hated by the party and some segments of the GOP voters. He is the nominee primarily because the rest of the party is a dog’s breakfast of globalist fantasies and 1980’s romanticism. The sense of betrayal among conservative voters is at revolutionary levels.
What is most incredible about all of it is the extreme disconnect between the party elites and their voters. Most Democrat voters would prefer less immigration and better polices for the middle-class and working class. Similarly, most Republican voters would respond to similar appeals, with an emphasis on the more business friendly stuff. Yet, neither party is offering much of anything on these issues. Instead, they are obsessed with weird fads like transvestites or globalist esoterica that no one outside the global elites finds interesting.
We do seem to be in uncharted territory, which may not be a terrible thing. Historical analogies are often wildly mistaken, resulting is disasters like the endless wars in the Muslim lands. The battles of the Great War were mostly due to the generals clinging to lessons of the past, despite the carnage they were witnessing. Much of what plagues American politics today is a layer of Baby Boomer politicians who cannot stop reliving the 1960’s. A break from the past could be the palate cleanser society needs. Or we may be rocketing over a cliff.
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A Hilary win would lead to another fifty years of the 1960’s, slow national suicide. What follows a Trump win? I don’t have a prediction, but I do know that progressives are very, very nasty and will do everything in their considerable power to undermine or co-opt him. If the Dirt People stick with him and if he doesn’t betray them we might have the break from the past you mention.
Slow national suicide? What do you mean by that? The 1960s saw the emergence of civil rights, the peace movement, feminism, and environmentalism. Is that what you mean?
You just named the four horses of the apocalypse. All four completely misused and abused programs. Not to mention the total ruination of women. Don’t get me started. At any rate, why don’t you find yourself another country?
Would you care to elaborate? Go on, enlighten us about the total ruination of women! This I gotta hear!!!
Here’s what’s going to happen. You will keep posting under various handles and I will ban you from the site. That does not have to be your future, but that’s up to you.
Okay. Giving women the vote seems to have been a mistake. Convincing women that murdering their unborn child is great was a mistake. Telling women that there is nothing more wonderful than having a job was a mistake.
As always with progressive initiatives, look at the results, Mr. Hall, not the intentions. How are race relations these days? How much peace has the peace movement brought us?
As compared to the 1960s blacks are no longer subjugated to Jim Crow and most Americans believe Vietnam as a terrible mistake.
Very likely most Americans believe that losing a war is a terrible mistake. The power which is capable of sustaining a losing war for ten years is derived from the same power that is required to dictate and enforce Utopian equality: desegregation, integration, affirmative action, affirmatively furthered fair housing, speech codes, and endless government employment. But being a Prog’ you can spit on one and shine the other.
That’s because most Americans believe what the MSM told them. Just like they believed we lost at Tet. Yes, Jim Crow was a terrible time. We have a black President now, so maybe it’s time we move on. I am tired of being told that I am personally responsible for slavery. A lot of white men died to end slavery in this country. It is too bad that folks are not concerned about the slavery still carried on in much of the world.
re: “The 1960s saw the emergence of civil rights, the peace movement, feminism, and environmentalism.” James Hall
1) “civil rights” redefinition in 1960s: Black Privilege, Quotas, Affirmative Action;
2) “the peace movement” definition: Dope, Sex, Devolution;
3) “feminism” in 1960s: Abortion, future cat ladies, sluts on parade;
4) “environmentalism” in 1960s: Bambism combined with sentimental science–Greenism like a watermellon is green on the outside and red on the inside.
What you are praising has been a march into decadence.
Dan Kurt
There you have it. Well put. I’ve nothing else to say. Thank you.
Exactly.
Oh, you mean the rise of the Social Justice Warriors? We went from rights to privileges. The peace movement was a bunch of folks that didn’t want to get drafted. Feminism lead to the Mommy State. And please don’t talk to me about the benefits of environmentalism as I am personally doing battle with the eco-Nazis in my state.
Yeah. Just guessing but probably around the time you were born. A real asshat.
I think there are at least three good reasons why Trump was chosen. A successful Repub candidate would need to be heard without help from the MSM. Trump is the only candidate capable of that. Trump is the only candidate that is not politically correct. People are tired of monitoring every word that comes out of their mouths. People want to have some hope again. After 8 years of Obama, it seems like things can only get worse. And we could throw in that people are tired of being lectured.
I used to marvel at stories about the country before the Civil War. You would read about families split in two, over the issues of the day. Sometimes they were on opposite armies. It is easier to understand these days. There is not a lot of middle ground. You can’t discuss issues but must just choose a side. This will not end well
So your three reasons are:
Trump is independent of the main stream media
Trump is not politically correct
Things can’t get any worse after Obama
Is that what you’re saying? Because first of all, I don’t believe the main stream media is in anybody’s pocket. Is so happens, by the way, that Trump has definitely dominated the main stream media for the last twelve months. There’s no doubt about that.
Secondly, politically correct speech implies avoiding offence. What constitutes offence? If your beliefs constitute offence than you should re-evaluate what you believe. It’s called growing up.
And finally, I wasn’t born yesterday. Things were worse before Obama. There’s no doubt about that.
“Things were worse before Obama.” James Hall
Avoid taking a toke before commenting, please!
Dan Kurt
Get your head out of your ass and tell me how things are worse today than they were when Bush was president. Go on, try not to bust a nut using your “brain”! Tell me how things are worse today!
You only go back to Bush? Child, I was in the Bay Area during the 60s and early 70s. So yeah, it was worse and it will get worse.
Was talking to folks about the debates at one point and they went over all the responses. THEY DIDN’T MENTION CRUZ! They’d actually forgotten about him. That’s what happens when you can be shut down by the media. You must not watch as much of the MSM as I do. And they are most definitely not objective.
http://ijr.com/2014/10/186620-6-white-house-network-news-relationships-will-make-shake-head-media-bias/
Political correctness means that we can’t acknowledge the threat from radical Islam. We can’t talk about crime and illegal immigration. We get called racist or Islamophobic when we do. Unless you hang out at Huff Post all day, you should know this stuff. And you missed the problem with Obama. He is the only President I know that hates America and Americans.
Why waste your effort on this clown? He is obviously brain dead anyway.
That cliff came closer in Dallas last night.
It’s always darkest just before it is about to get much worse.
I don’t know what to think of last night other than it wasn’t a white NRA guy because that would be all over the news now. I think we are in the pause period as people get their stories straight before dancing in the blood.
The Cult is a quandary. Blaming bad whites and guns is not going to work this time. Blaming the cops is impossible, given that that they were ambushed. It’s why Conservative Inc is huddled together like sheep this morning. They have not been given the narrative yet from their liberal masters.
But, they will find some way to blame the honkies for this.
treehouse – Philandro Castile. I know, let’s make all the cops fear for their lives – what could go wrong? If there’s anything stupider than making guys with guns nervous, I’m sure our (D)irtbag leaders will discover it.
Years ago I got pulled over in Virginia. I had my gun bag on the front seat. It was sealed, but it is obviously a gun bag. The cop crept up as they tend to do and I made sure my hands were on the wheel in plain site. I had my license ready and my carry permit. That way, he knew right up front that I was a good guy. The cop asked about my bag and I told him what was inside. I still kept my hands in plain site so there could be no confusion.
When you are a gun owner, you accept certain responsibilities. When you have a carry permit or choose to carry, you take on additional responsibilities. One of those is to never assume others know your intent.
Obama has his legacy now. What ever chances Hilary might have had before Dallas, are all ashes now. Time to start repatriating the savages back to mother Africa,
I was a history major and usually have a good historical analogy for a given situation. I’ve got nothing for where we are right now. It does give me an unsettling feeling there may be a cliff right around the next bend.
A palate cleanser is what society needs? No, enema is more like it to flush all the crap from the system and inject large amounts of anti-socialism, cortisteroid, antibacterial type medicines that kill off this virulent stuff. No I vote for “we have already left Terra firma and gravity is in control.” Where we land nobody knows but it will be a hard landing.
Z, I coined the term Trump is the great fuck you, back in August, because to me he represented a true paradigm, my thinking was like what Andrew Brietbart said about culture being upstream of politics. I’m no historian or have a classical education, but I believe the thing about what Donald Trump is is a sea change, a preference cascade like nothing can be compared to. I think it is the motive power of desire and hope for something better and larger than ourselves. That scares many shitless, but it also represents something grand and good to many others.
I’m not saying anything here about Trump or his veracity, what I’m trying to convey is it isn’t Trump, and that is a good thing, (I for one have had quite enough of the cargo cult marxist emperor and the scummy defeatist baggage he and his kind bring to the table), because people have to believe in themselves first, that they are capable of something more than they thought they were capable of for positive change to take place, because that only begins with each of us, and maybe Donald Trump is a symbol of that, not because the man so much, but people can identify with who and what that man is. It isn’t doom, at least for those who hold him in regards and as a leader or a symbol of something much better.
Lord love a duck, the self appointed ruling class leaves a shitload to be desired.
Aaron Burr did some stuff that had the air of treason about it, but that was aeons past and at the end of his political career.
I’d go back to the assumption that Trump is the the Dirt People’s scourge to use against the elites. Further assuming he elects to play that role, how do the elites react? A few masks have dropped recently. I’d expect that a “scourge of the elites” Trump would cause quite a few more to reveal what’s in their hands to steady and unite the the base (coded language is too slow and some might misinterpret it… better to drop the masks and speak in the clear since at that point speed and synchronization matter more than secrecy) and prepare for the counterattack (I’m guessing political at this point). There’s too many unknown unknowns after that to predict what would happen.
If Trump reneges on his campaign promises and continues the elite’s policies, then the Dirt People feel profoundly betrayed and, once again, the unknown unknowns make it too hard to predict. I could see the resistance collapsing just as easily as intensifying.
So to me, anyway, the planning horizon is on or about January 20, 2018. After that, it’s all Clausewitzian fog. The elites are too smart and disciplined to show too much of their contingency planning prior to then (and will be actively working to turn Trump before then). The Dirt People, being a leaderless movement, could do anything.
Cleansing moments in history have typically involved the obliteration of everything in sight in some areas of the Earth’s geography. Unfortunately, it seems that we are more inclined today to want to visit such devastation on our own neighbors rather than on some people and places far, far away. That is the legacy of our current leadership.
Wait .. we didn’t repeat the exact same mistakes of Vietnam in Afghanistan?
I’m thinking of letting the Taliban have sanctuary in Pakistan, vice the VC in Cambodia. And departing a province once it was pacified, only to have it fall to the enemy anew. And inability to stand up a reliable sepoy army, although it appears the ARVN did a lot better than our Afghan allies.
But … oh, are you thinking of our willingness to use massive firepower/bomb North Vietnam, whereas we have insanely restrictive ROE’s in Afghanistan? Because that’s a fair point.
The right answer after 9/11 with regards to to Afghanistan was one or more of the following:
1) Incinerate Kabul after having demanded the handover of OBL.
2) Go in, bust up their stuff, vaporize the poppy fields and kill as many males as we can catch. Declare victory and come home.
3) Go in, create client state in the south and provide them with enough weapons and money to make all the neighbors nervous.
I’ll take door #2, Monty.
Except that the MIC at the time had pushed for “testing” their glorious new toys on a “top” military foe. Hence, the old style military approach, buildup, rollover, leave.
And the politically correct sentiment at the time was:
1. “Oh, the horror.” You can’t kill innocents!
2. “Destroy the poppy fields?” You can’t do that. There’s major money to be made there.
3. Maybe we didn’t create “a state in the south” but we did give them enough weapons and training and money” to defend themselves and win. But they did what their culture always does, loot and look for more handouts.
Fun fact, the Taliban expressed their condolences right after 911 and were prepared to cooperate:
Bush rejects Taliban offer to hand Bin Laden over The Guardian
Without Evidence, the Taliban Refuses to Turn Over bin Laden New York Times
“To this, they added a conciliatory statement of condolence for the victims of the attacks in the United States. “The ulema,” they said, using an Arabic term for Islamic clergy, “voice their sadness over American deaths and hope America does not attack Afghanistan.””
It’s even funnier how the US had plans to invade drawn up before 911:
The Afghanistan War was Planned Months Before the 9/11 Attacks
The right answer would have been to never invade, and only use special forces.
“” right answer ” if you had the “right intent’
Of course the US had plans to invade Afghanistan prior to 9/11.
It’s not “funny” at all… the US military ALWAYS has contingency plans to invade ANY country..
And BTW, China and Russia also have contingency plans to invade any country.
And all of them have plans to use puppet/client states to do the dirty work; and all of the major powers that ever were have done just that over the centuries.
Your conspiracy mongering phrase… “It’s even funnier how the US had plans to invade drawn up before 911” is childish nonsense.
My point is just that the US wanted and welcomed those wars, both could have been avoided, the Taliban could have been dealt with for far less than $500 billion and in a shorter time frame than a decade. And yes, Powell, Cheney, Rumsfeld & co did conspire to get the wars going, so did the hijackers, it was a conspiracy, not just theoretical, look the word up.
And it is funny to me, that everything fell into place, like a domino world record.
Well there is the conundrum. A Muslim, especially cleric, is telling you “sorry” and you are supposed to believe them after being at war with the west for several decades? That is even funnier in my book. Like to boy crying wolf one too many times. Are you really going to believe them after all their other actions? Ever hear of Taqqiya?
But to your point, then the shift from Afstan to Iraq anyway and the big money started rolling. Your are right on that point.
Not believe, but know that they were open for a deal deal, as in Kelly’s Heroes, the talis are republican in that regard, business is business, everything is for sale in the stans!
re: “It’s even funnier how the US had plans to invade drawn up before 911” guest
Fly over Washington, D.C. and view in Virginia how FVCKING big the pentagon is in real life. A great deal of PLANNING is being done there all the time and that is part of the reason it is so big. There are hordes of Captains, Majors, and Colonels hard at work Planning Invasions, Defenses, and other possible future wars at this very minute and have been since the building was completed. I for a fact know that a constantly being revised plan exists for the invasion of Mexico. Militaries plan for war. Read about the German General Staff.
Dan Kurt
Years ago when they were declassifying mountains of old stuff, a plan to invade and occupy Canada was revealed. IIRC, there were plane to invade England as well. My bet is there is a plan for just everything including alien invasion.
The famous “Rainbow Plans” drawn up in the 30’s when the peacetime army had a lot of time on its hands.
YES! It’s called a Raid or a “Punitive Expedition” and is a very old military tactic. When Emperor Tewodros II of Ethiopia started taking British captives in 1867, the Brits landed a couple of regiments, marched upcountry to his fortress, sprung the hostages, blew up his fort and trashed the place, then marched back to the coast and sailed home (back to India actually).
That’s exactly what I thought we were doing in Afghanistan. Our SF, Rangers, Paratroopers, and Marines conducted a perfect raid of the place. I was thoroughly confused when we started bringing in heavy equipment and settling down for a long stay – instead of declaring victory, issuing a stern warning that we’ll do it again if provoked – and going home.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Expedition_to_Abyssinia
Good read!
Using an army to garrison, police and repair is a terrible waste. Imagine how effective our diplomacy would now be if: after invading Iraq and Afganistan and destroying their militaries, we followed up with doing the same to Iraq and Pakistan – Leaving all the corrupt aholes leading those dumps to deal with angry populace with their armies(and most military aged aholes) in rubble.
Politicians are stupid about anything other than whoring themselves for money. It’d sure be nice if we could keep the political idiots away from the controls of certain things (war strategy, policing policy, energy policy, education policy, housing policy…) and limit themselves to competent administration of defined government duties.
“Politics is like driving – if it is exciting, you are doing it wrong” – me. If the (D)irtbags in power could quit trying to discover new ways to loot the government and crap everything up, politics COULD just be a dull matter of selecting the most competent and reliable administrators.
Put me down for “rocketing over a cliff.” The particulars are highly irregular in this election, yes, but crises of legitimacy are all over the historical record, and that’s what we have here. Time was, even the most entrenched aristocracy had to have a justification for remaining in power, other than “a long tradition of existence to its members and the community at large.” If it didn’t, well, pretenders to the throne were a dime a dozen. The Dirt People work the jobs and staff the armies — push them enough, and they’ll listen to whatever bastard half-cousin of the former queen’s nephew who will offer them a better deal. (For the record, my favorite historical analogy for this election is 1852. The GOP are the Whigs, who have no reason to exist except not being Democrats, and the Democrats are the Democrats, who can’t decide if they’re proslavery or really, really proslavery. And the only issue is slavery (globalism), which both parties refuse to mention with omerta-level discipline).
The Dirt People are not so maliable, no so push-aroundable as to listen to any ‘bastard half-cousin of the queen’s nephew.’ Dirt People listen and talk and vote (or don’t vote, which is inexcusable in a republic). Dirt People have a great understanding of injustice, far greater than the elitist establishment. Unlike their “betters,” Dirt People believe in “We hold these truths …”
Kinda my point — if the Elite keep pushing the Dirt Folk around, the Dirt Folk will find themselves a new Elite. And there’s always someone else ready and willing to be the new Elite– the queen’s nephew’s bastard cousin, or whomever. The point is that the Elite don’t get to be Elite simply by declaring themselves so — they have to provide some value, or they will be replaced.
Great post. You, sir, have made my list of daily must-read blogs.