When I was out in the provinces last month, I watched a bit of the BBC and SkyNews. One of the things I found humorous about the news coverage was the hyperventilating about Brexit. Every story had a Brexit angle, even the local interest stuff. The general impression I got from the news presenters was that they were having a tough time keeping it together. At any moment they could break down into sobbing over the horrors of Brexit. If you did not know better, you would think Brexit was code for re-opening Auschwitz.
All the prophesies about the disasters that would befall the world, if the snaggletoothed yokels voted to leave Europe, have not come to pass. In fact, the early returns suggest it has been a net positive for the Brits. Time will tell how it all unfolds as there is a lot that has yet to happen. Even so, the results thus far are making the Remain side look rather foolish. Instead of accepting this reality, the true believers are carrying on like Godzilla is about to cross the Channel and attack London, because of Brexit.
This inability to accept reality is not confined to the Brits. Tyler Cowen has an unintentionally hilarious column up demanding that we believe the libertarian economists and not our lying eyes. The short version, for those uninterested in reading it, is that he and the rest of the doomsayers forgot to carry the one and the day of reckoning is actually a little ways off. But don’t you worry though. The day of reckoning is approaching and those beastly Dirt People in the accompanying picture will be held to account.
In fairness to libertarians, modern economists are not libertarians. They dress up their act with libertarian hobbyhorse items like free weed and open borders, but modern economics is managerial central planning. They are technocrats convinced they can micromanage everything through monetary and tax policy. No matter how many times they get it wrong, they remain certain they just need to tweak their models and boundless bliss will spread over the countryside. Worse still, they fully embrace the lunacy of homo economicus.
Economics, as I’m fond of saying, is the modern equivalent of astrology. Before a battle, Cyrus II of Persia would bring in his astrologers to advice him on the time and place to attack his enemy. The astrologers would figure out what he wanted to hear, consult their maps and then tell him what he wanted to hear. Cyrus was a bad ass dude, who was rarely wrong, so it was a wise course by the astrologers to tell the boss what he already knew. When he won, they got some credit and they avoided contradicting the boss.
This old story about the eminent astrologer economist Joseph Stiglitz praising the economic polices of Venezuela ten years ago is a good example. Stiglitz was telling his hosts what they wanted to hear because they were paying him to endorse their brand of lunacy. Of course, Venezuela is now headed to total collapse because their economy has ground to a halt. In an age when Mexico’s poor people are obese, Venezuela has managed to have a food shortage. Maybe the rulers should not have listened to Joseph Stiglitz.
The fascinating thing about economists is that their error rate is outlandishly high, but they never lose credibility with the rulers. Obama called in his best seers when he rose to power in 2008. They told him that borrowing a trillion dollars and blowing it on pointless projects would result in 1.5 trillion in economic activity. They called it the fiscal multiplier. One could be forgiven for thinking that this is another version of this old joke about a stranger coming into town and spending $100 at an hotel, then changing his mind.
The Obama stimulus plan was a bust, but that was never really the point anyway. Obama wanted to lavish his party with your money and he wanted to make it look like he was doing you a favor by doing it. That’s why he called in his best magicians and astrologers to give it their stamp of approval. Being right or wrong was never a concern. It never is in economics. The chief architects of the stimulus knew it was a great career move to give their stamp of approval to what was obviously just good old fashioned patronage. All of them landed prestigious jobs in the academy and Wall Street afterward.
Anyway, I suspect the fury of the central planners over Brexit has to do with fear that the scam is no longer working. Every big foot economist from the West weighed in against Brexit. They shook their staffs and promised Britain would be visited by plagues, monsters and dark spirits if they left Europe. The voters chose Brexit anyway. If you’re in the business of fooling the people on behalf of the rulers, you need to show you can fool the voters. Otherwise, the rulers have no use for you.
The Conservative Treehouse makes an interesting point that nobody else has caught on to. We did not have just one stimulus. Once the stimulus occurred, it was incorporated into the baseline budget and we have spent the same amount in each following year. In effect, we have had eight stimuluses. Think about that. We would have a 13 trillion dollar debt right now if they hadn’t done that to us.
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. C.S. Lewis
Like Ptolemy’s crystal spheres, economics gets complex when it is used to support falsehoods and fraud. BTW, because of the dirty agreement between the Republicans and Democrats to not have a budget since 2008 the Obama $900 billion stimulus has been in the spending bills for EVERY year since.
@ theZman – Are you back from your trip? Did you manage to spend any time on our busy little continent or were only the European island dwellers blessed with your presence? 🙂
I am back in the Empire. I have a busy schedule the remainder of the year, but 2017 will take me to the Continent. I’ve always wanted to do Wacken so that’s on the list for next year.
I never would have taken you for a fan of heavy metal. It will be an experience to say the least.
Hmmm… Zman is possibly there finest name for a heavy metal band I can think of. I must form one.
I welcome suggested names for Zman’s first album.
Most of it is terrible, but the scene at metal shows is the best. It often has an end of day vibe to it. AC/DC shows in the US used to be like that. The tailgate was better than the concert.
I for one was very happy to see Brexit come to pass and I cheered on my British cousins and celebrated with their victory.
But before you all decry the “horrors and abuse” of the EU – of which there is plenty – you have to fully understand some of the benefits and why it remains important to Europe. For example, while the British argument claimed they paid 2-Euros and received 1-Euro back in benefits, but they failed to mention that Irish kids can now afford a college education thanks to EU tax contributions. That Italian historical sites like Pompeii have been saved in part from combined taxes which the Italians by themselves couldn’t afford. French roads and highways have been improved to ensure faster transport of goods. These stories are in part only possible due to the EU and have happened all across EU member states.
Just like in the US, states like South Dakota benefit from Federal funding thanks to taxes collected from California, New York and other states. In that same way, much good has come from the combined efforts of the EU. Clearly, not all was wisely spent (like EC Commission Regulation No 2257/94, which states that all bananas must be “free of abnormal curvature” and at least 14 cm in length). But the EU actually came down on the state of Hessen when Frankfurt tried to lower the standards for public water purity. So it’s a mixed blessing.
Personally, I want harmonized laws and regulations so we can sell and trade using industrial standards in Europe like DIN and BS in the same way you have ASME and ANSI in the US. And the EU is the right place for this to happen.
Maybe the Irish kids could have afforded college if Apple paid their fair share of taxes there 😉
@ notsothoreau – What? And put an end to a capitalist trend of skimming off from the people? No no no. We’re much more advanced than that! Besides, we’ve been doing it over here in our respective little kingdoms since the dark ages. Nothing to see here – move along. 🙂
Business taxes are a great illusion-delusion.
You are right, Karl, that so much of Europe has benefitted from spreading the money around. The issue is whether those countries who benefit should sort out their own taxation and thus not have to rely on taking it from others.
While I am glad French roads are heaven for drivers, I would have thought the benefits to the French people of making their own roads better for traffic would be more of their own priority. Having the EU gather many taxes (and fines and licence fees and what have you) is an expensive undertaking, and then the expense is added to by having people arguing who should get a slice of this very substantial cake. The French government, if in charge of their own taxes, should determine what the priorities are for France. That’s the root of Brexit: let us make our own decisions. Frexit would do the same.
If I take my own area, I expect South Yorkshire county council to repair the road near my home because they are my immediate supplier of socialist activities and gather taxes from me for that purpose. I do not expect the large pot holes on Doncaster Road to remain there for months while applications are made to Brussels and permission sought and arguments made (sorry, the Romanian delegate had more persuasive arguments and anyway, the Latvians vetoed the bill) and all the while my car suspension goes south.
Once you get a bigger organisation than necessary it gets caught up in matters that don’t help the organisation, or more relevantly, the people who contribute to it.
PS as for Pompeii, another volcanic eruption should cover up all the good work done by the EU money in looking after it. The day the EU plugs Vesuvius I will take my hat off to them.
@ UKer – The problem for the EU is our southern neighbors simply can’t fund their countries selling pasta, olive oil and bottle corks in today’s economy. Unfortunately they have neither the capability nor the resources which is why Germany, and to some degree France, remain the dominant financial drivers on this side of the Channel.
In my eyes, the purpose of the EU should be to operate in some ways as the US Federal government operates in the US; where the individual states are responsible for local support (country roads, schools, etc) while the Federal government is responsible for federal highways, water ways, etc. The Americans hate to even mention the word, but it’s really a simple form of Socialism. Taxes from Californians pay for roads and upkeep for people in North Dakota and other low population states where their economies simply couldn’t do it alone. We all know German taxes help keep Spain and Portugal out of third world status. And I think that’s a good thing for everyone in the long run. I would hate to see Barcelona turn into Cairo – and if you’ve been to Cairo, you know what I’m talking about.
If the EU is to have reliable transport of goods, I would not want to depend on the French or Italians to fund and maintain their own highways. Commerce depends on good infrastructure – roads, highways, bridges and rail systems – and with more and more coming from our eastern neighbors (Czech, Poland, Hungary, etc) all heading to ports like Calais, everyone benefits when everyone contributes.
Personally, I would rather pay higher taxes to support our southern neighbors rather than seeing them take loans from a German bank or the World Bank. Imagine if a state like South Dakota had to borrow money to pay for it’s upkeep rather than receive tax revenue distributed from the other 49-states? It would be never ending dept just paying the interest given how few people actually live there.
So from this perspective, tax distribution at a EU (Federal) level in Europe makes sense.
Well, the german arms industry benefited from greek contracts. So the total is not all negative. Greetings from your southern neighbour !
@ wordly wiseman – Ah ha! Excellent! I do look forward to reading your perspective on all these wonderful topics theZman puts out for us. I believe there is at least one other German, a Brit, now we have a Greek. Europe is becoming well represented. Welcome. 🙂
@Karl Horst Actually, I am a croatian (sorry for the confusion) . I have been a regular reader for more than two years. I am extremely grateful for your perspective on the current state of german affairs, a topic i am not well informed as i should be .
@ wordly wiseman – Ah, okay – from Croatia. I was in Pula last year for a long weekend. I must get down to Split as I hear it’s very nice.
Quick question, name all the famous economists that were also an success at creating, running and growing a business.
Any business.
“Obama wanted to lavish his party …” Quite descriptive and to the point.
No one ever accuses O’bambi of being niggardly.
The Bolsheviks were a bunch of economists and look where that all ended up.
Speaking of Bolsheviks and economists, my favorite economist is using language straight from the Moscow show trials: Why Are The Media Objectively Pro-Trump?
For those not familiar with the reference, during Stalin’s show trials, some cat like Pyatikov or Radek would get up and confess, “Sure I was subjectively fulfilling the five year plan by ordering pig iron production doubled, but objectively I was sabotaging the plan since the coal was actually needed for power production instead of coke.
Thus the danger of letting economists anywhere near power. They’ve gotten so good at lying about their failed prognostications, that they can lie effectively about almost anything.
Off ramp on the information superhighway: http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/krugman/2016/09/13/why-are-the-media-objectively-pro-trump/?smid=tw-nytimeskrugman&smtyp=cur&referer=
I keep waiting for Hillary to start drunkenly ranting about “wreckers,” “capitalist-roaders,” and “right deviationists.” Her wardrobe is already Mao-esque. The Media, meanwhile, are going full Stakhanovite. (In case you can’t tell, I love commie lingo and think it needs to be revived — as **insults**, I hasten to add).
There are some poorly sourced reports going around having her wandering the halls late at night moaning that “the fascists will hang me if I don’t get elected,” so we may not be far off, Severian.
The language of High Stalinism is fascinating in a weird way. In the 20’s when Josef is buddying up to Kamenev and Zinoviev its still the very trite Comintern lingo (Sovnarkom is still my favorite). After WW2 when Dzhugashvili is tired and gray, the commissariats become ministries and wreckers and deviationists become cosmopolitans and toadies before the West. But in the ’30s, that was some agitprop! Those boys weren’t fooling around.
That poorly sourced report got credence with me when it reported that staffers are relieved of their guns, er, cell phones, before entering the cage with Hillary.
I love commie-speak, I always have. Just reading the wonderful examples of commie-speak as presented by our comrades Severian and el_baboso has made me shiggle, and I don’t shiggle easily.
Ignoring history is the flux capacitor of liberalism – it’s what makes faith in socialism possible. Funny how you can trace every “intellectual” movement since the late 19th century back to that basic dynamic — they’re all the rationalization du jour for socialism. Libertarian economics? “We like weed and cheap gardeners, therefore socialism.” Postmodernism? “The facts say socialism doesn’t work; we say there is no such thing as a fact; therefore socialism!” Psychoanalysis? “People are getting crazier; must be capitalism. Therefore, socialism!” Etc. etc. Sssshhhhh….don’t tell them, but it’s exactly the same thing as those awful Evangelicals trying to pray away the gay. And just as effective.
“If you’re in the business of fooling the people on behalf of the rulers, you need to show you can fool the voters.”
Let’s see, (ie)Mr. Krugman has been the political Science scribe for NYT, under the heading “Award Winning Economist”, for HOW long?
Must be nice when you only have to reinforce the consistent dupeology (I made that word up) of
those desperate enough to think he really knows.
SEE: Fiddler on the Roof.
The BBC is, essentially, a London-based organisation (as is Skynews, for that matter) so all they think about is London stuff. That means to them that cheap vacations to France = very good, muslim mayor = good, diversity leading to restaurant choice = good, saving Syrian people = good, and with it not mentioning that the refugees go back to Syria for vacations = good, Brexit =very, very bad, rest of UK = very bad and not worth bothering with.
Trouble is we still haven’t Brexited. We are still paying money to the fat buggers in Brussels and still subject to their insane whims and crappy laws because parliament and all the hordes of civil servants who cling to it are all stuck in the London mindset. Remember London = Brussels, or perhaps more accurately, London < Brussels.
The only economics that matters to the top dogs in the UK is what kick back can they get from the EU. And the EU pays them very well for being loyal.
@ UKer – I have come to understand you Brits are London-centric in the same way the French are Paris-centric. If anything happens outside of those two major cities, nothing really happened at all.
Karl, my impression of Germany is that the German news is much more decentralized (i.e. not all about the doings in the capital) than in the US, UK or France. How does it seem to you?
@ Lorenzo – Yes, that’s an accurate observation. Germany is not Berlin-centric in the way France and the UK tend to be. If something happens in Germany, everyone knows and Berlin does not dominate the media or policy. Which is why for example the Bavarian government had such attention during the immigration issues. But don’t think for a minute the German media isn’t controlled. The idea of a “free-press” has been dead for decades.
Thank you, Karl.
Karl: you are 100 per cent correct in this. The biggest smile we provincials have is the issue of snow. If it snows and settles in London (which is usually a couple of degrees warmer than the rest of the UK) the BBC always leads its ‘news’ bulletins with film of the incredible disruption to London commuters. It’s like, wow, look at us being brave and battling through the soon-to-slushy white stuff.
Meanwhile parts of the UK, Scotland in particular, is in fits of laughter as most of the land has been under snow, real deep snow at that, for weeks but that never gets reported on Al-Beeb. It’s just, you know, that other place we don’t think about. While we don’t have ‘fly-over’ country, we just have small and insignificant country.
@ UKer – I remember a few years back seeing a satellite picture of England around Christmas time. The entire island was white. But all we heard about was the disruption of the air traffic in London despite the fact the rest of the country was also at a stand-still and people were actually freezing to death up north.
Well sure, the elites are hideously rich spoiled brats. They have rigged the activity of the rest of the human race to essentially be their personal cash cows and foot servants to strip mine of their intrinsic wealth at their leisure and whim. They can not imagine us dirt people refusing to comply never mind defying their economic and social omnipotence.
What I think really insults them is the deplorable’s are beginning to revolt against de-culturing. We are talking about people who create nothing but trouble, they rob everyone of everything and think they are unique, special somehow, like demi-gods. But all they are are a criminal gang when you get down to it, running other criminal gangs, all feeding off the productive part of humanity.
It is got out of control, we are going to be lucky to survive this cabal of psychopaths without a really bad period of turmoil and tribulation. Everything has consequences, but in their case, what with the magnitude of meddling and social engineering, the untended consequences are going to be very bad when it all begins to catch up to this world.
You can’t do the things these clowns are doing, mess with peoples lives, their cultures, traditions, and most basic aspects of their lives and avoid the consequences. But the raw magnitude of what these people have done is especially malicious and grievous, it will only magnify the natural correction to the tyranny of it all.
Just a quick note:You forgot the parens
(((Joseph Stiglitz))) of (((Columbia University))) from whence the (((Frankfurt School))) made its foray into what used to be America. In a shocking Cohencidence, Obama graduated from Columbia.
Wide Awake in America
I’m woke!!!!!
It fails to astound me. Kind of like knowing that fire can burn. Certain ideas have been proven throughout history to fail. The old saying about Socialists and their past failures … “Well, ‘we’ will make it work this time! It just wasn’t done right in the past.”
Same same. Like gravity. What goes up must come down. It just is. But some people (why so many?) seem incapable of accepting reality? It really is as Michael Savage coined “a mental illness.”
We need to bring back Insane Asylums and when these ideas pop up, put those spouting them away. It is like shouting “fire!” in public.
I am not sure the economists believe that they can micromanage the economy. Per the later part of the essay, they are telling their paying audience what they think the audience wants to hear, and then they hope that the results in the real world just happen to coincide with their proposals (so they can claim success). It is all a Capital City scam, one end to the other.
Yes, they do. Economists certainly believe they can micromanage an economy.
And why shouldn’t they?
They have reams of theoretical studies and “proofs” (all highly mathematical, therefore they must be correct) that they have it all figured out.
Of course, NONE of their theories or proofs have been or can be subjected to controlled experiments and thus can never be proven wrong ( or right).
But just toss enough econo lingo and math , and poof, it is all very clear.
Add in the fact that most of them are liberal progressive elitists – hoping until the last that the economic system of the USSR would prevail – and you will find no shortage of the belief in their own abilities to predict and explain everything and anything in an economy.
Oh, by the way, when their predictions prove wrong (only occurs about 90% of the time; really no big deal), they will always find some exogenous reason why the real world went wrong.
Economists are never wrong.
Libertarian economics work in a libertarian world. If only we lived in a libertarian world. But we don’t. So tell them to shut the fuck up.
I have not heard an economist who was anywhere in the neighborhood of Libertarian since Milton Friedman passed. I did have a Macro Econ professor in grad school who probably fit the bill – I still remember his motto: “The economic drag of government on the economy is the NPV of expenditures minus transfer payments.”
None of the big-government EU-loving economists would say something so crass. They are leftists, not libertarians or classical liberals.
I shouldn’t be so hard on them. The ideas are sound and can have application in the real world in prudent hands. The hard core followers, however, misapply them constantly and end up making the ideas look like the idiots pushing them. Just read a book about the influence of Puritan ideas in English law. Turns out Coke was a bit of a trust buster in his abhorrence of monopolies and even was opposed to corporations in general, but he got together with other judges and officials and hammered out specific rules regarding when the concepts could be used appropriately and not. No ideologue he. We need ideas to guide us generally and prudence to keep us from walking off cliffs.
Scenario: Hillary croaks, and Michelle takes her place on the ticket?
One cold, unlikeable, condescending candidate replaces the former cold, condescending, thoroughly unlikeable candidate?
Just an FYI for you. Take a look at your site stats:
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/thezman.com
Nice bounce there!
According the WordPress stats, I’m averaging 63,000 readers now. I’d like to take credit bu it is really due to you guys sharing links and spreading the word.
That’s the population of a smallish- to medium-sized town. Higher circulation than a great deal of local newspapers. Better caliber of reader, too. Only a ~10,000:1 reader:commenter ratio, though.
My sort of blog does not lend itself to attracting comments. The blogs that do a few short pithy comments on a news story *invite* comments. There’s also the fact that many people on twitter have pointed out that the comments here are better than most. I see a lot of links to specific comments. That’s going to intimidate the sort of guy who posts at Breitbart.
It would be even better, if one didn’t have to expand every longer comment!
Personally, I like the less comments / short comments. I learn a lot from discussions here, and the short comment thing makes me kinda sorta try to rein in my natural long-windedness (flame away, comrades… flame away).
I’m told there is a FB group that debates me. I know there is a Reddit thing that discusses my posts and some others. A blog called Burning Platform reposts my posts as does Lew Rockwell. So, there are many comment venues other than here.
That must be… interesting. And hey, now all you have to do is wait for Conservative Inc. to pull up with a dump truck full of cash, right? Go all Ace of Spades and get on Fox News and whatnot? 🙂
In the 21st century a great joke becomes part of the national fabric in about two days. A great idea takes only a few days more. Wonderful minds are building a thing one piece at a time, like a stone wall. Every stone that fits makes it better. The shape of the whole becomes more clear. The right wing are the true progressives, and the only ones.
Then don’t expand them.
I really do look forward to the comments on this blog. You have a sharp readership.
I very much enjoy this blog and the lively banter between those that take the time to reply. I’m not sure how many non-US readers are in here, but for myself, it has certainly been very interesting to see an American perspective most of us here in Europe may not fully appreciate. I hope in some ways, while my own views are not so often shared (especially those critical of the US) we can come to understand and appreciate each others opinions despite our differences.
Thank you for the short version.
The EU is the biggest project of the central planners, is about putting all the European provinces of the American Empire together under a single administration, I fully expect that the central planners want to merge NATO with the EU and they might even try.
The EU central planners wish to create a USSR minus the mass exterminations and militarism Like all elitists they believe the USSR, Venezuela, Cuba, all of USSR dominated Eastern Europe, etc., failed economically because they were not personally there to apply their intellectual acumen and genius to guide the ship.
All that was missing was themselves.
Such is the arrogance and hubris of the elites.
Of course the prime motivating factor that drives the elites is their contempt for the decisions that average folks make and in a capitalist system (like used to exist in the USA until about 1925), elites are not needed; life goes on without them. For the elites, capitalism – and profits and wealth (for others only, but not for themselves) – are anathema
If the EU bureaucrats are permitted to continue their trek towards establishing a socialist utopia, individual liberties will have to be curtailed (we already see this there; see speech codes) and Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm, will become a reality.
The European people had better wake up (not picking on them; after all the US voter elected, twice, the con man Obama and the criminal Hillary is perilously close to becoming president).