The Tinker Bell Effect is an expression for when people want something to be true so deeply, they believe it actually exists. This is commonly used in education reform, where the reformers are so sure their blank slate fantasies are true, they convince themselves their reform efforts are having the desired effect. Head Start is a total sham, but proponents pretend it is wildly successful. It’s a step beyond confirmation bias, in that the believer not only sees the desired result, they make it a core assumption and act on it.
This has been the condition of the America Left since the election. What we call Progressivism has curdled into a feminist cult. Maybe it was always thus, but not always obvious, and the election made it plain. Maybe the election was a triggering event. Either way, the Left is now just angry women who can’t get past the fact Hillary Clinton lost the election. To cope with this, they have concocted a number of fantasies about why it happened. The most obvious one involves Boris and Natasha colluding with Trump.
To most people, the Russian collusion thing has always been absurd, but to the hardcore Hillary supporters, it is an article of faith. The political Left may have piped down about it, but their supporters have never stopped believing that Trump won the election because of nefarious forces out of Moscow rigging the election. For the last 18 months, the Left has been operating on the assumption that this is true and it will be revealed any day. In other words, they have been operating as if the removal of Trump is a forgone conclusion.
Another example of the Tinker Bell Effect is with immigration. The Left has been swallowing the multiculturalism pills for so long, they can’t imagine an alternative view is possible. They as so sure about what happens when bad whites are swamped by noble browns, they have started to assume that it has already happened. As a result, they ran an explicitly anti-white campaign in 2016. They even had the so-called conservatives convinced of this, which is why they have yet to get past their hatred of Trump.
This fantasy has been so powerful, than even some people on our side are sure we are following the path of South Africa. In other words, they have blown past the Argentina or Brazil models and gone straight to white genocide being the future. That’s why they cannot see how Texas is much less likely to become California, despite the demographics. They believe in the vision of white dispossession so strongly, so emotionally, that any facts or arguments to the contrary are treated as insults. This is the reverse Tinker Bell Effect.
Another group still clapping their hands, yelling “we believe!” are the libertarians. They are so sure that Trump prudent economic policies with regards to trade are going to usher in the end times, Goth Fonzi has started to stock up on canned goods. Reason Magazine has at least one post a week working from the assumption that economic devastation is spreading across the country. This one is the latest. Amusingly, they now pretend that Trump voters are locked into some sort of cult, where reality is replaced with fantasy.
Libertarianism, like Progressivism, has always been a cult, so it is not surprising that libertarians are prone to magical thinking. It’s a requirement of cults to hold a set of beliefs that are at odds with reality. This way, the adherent invests their energy into believing and helping their coreligionist believe. It’s why there are no cults built around observable reality. Even so, libertarians are so sure Trump’s policies are going to usher in the end times, they are convinced that displaced Okies are now trundling cross America.
In fairness, it is not unreasonable to think that liberal democracy must rely on the Tinker Bell Effect. Much of the voluntary conduct of American citizens is based on the belief in things like equality before the law and the rightness of our economic model. If people stopped believing in this stuff, they would act differently. Most Americans believe our society is morally good, something to sacrifice for, so lots of people sacrifice to keep the current regime in place. Look at how many young men join the Army each year.
Reality is that thing that does not go away when you stop believing in it. Patriotism has started to slip, as the younger generation, facing the mess their parents created for them, comes to terms with that reality. Boomers had a great ride in a great country, so they will remain patriotic and optimist. In fact, the rise of national populism and the nascent white identity is driven by the death of Tinker Bell. The younger generation simply does not believe the things the older generation believed and still believes about America.
The interesting thing to watch for is what happens to the feminist scolds when Tinker Bell dies for them. The end of the Mueller probe is coming sooner rather than later. Trump is not going to be impeached and he will most likely win in 2020. Similarly, the great brown future is not just around the corner, so the Left will be confronted with demographic reality at the voting booth. Belief is powerful stuff, but so is disconfirmation. One of the most emotional parts of Peter Pan is the death of Tinker Bell. There’s a reason for that.