President Trump

If you have been reading this blog for any length of time, you know I’m ambivalent about Trump as a candidate. I’m enjoying the Trump Effect, but I’m not a Trump fan. I don’t hate the guy or have any strong feelings about him one way or the other. I’m just not a fan of his personal style and I have a tough time imagining him as president. Therefore, I have not thought much about him being president.

Watching the press go nuts over Donald’s schlong, er…Trump’s use of the idiomatic expression “schlonged” with regards to Hillary Clinton, I’m pretty close to convinced that Trump is not only going to win the nomination. He is going to be the next president. You can’t be this clever by accident. Sure, some gaffes turn out to work in your favor, but this guy is playing the press like a fiddle. This schlong business smacks of showing off.

Think about it. He uses an odd term that has been used by liberal media outlets like NPR and the NYTimes. That term has a sexual connotation to most people. He uses it on Hillary Clinton. His enemies immediately assume he means something vulgar, but narrative collapse kicks in and we end the cycle by talking about how Clinton’s husband is a rapist. That’s super villain clever and Trump does it regularly.

It’s pretty clear by now that Trump has a solid base of support. The remarkable thing about Trumps’s polling in 2015 is the consistency. Poll after poll, pollster after pollster comes up with the same steady climb higher and higher. He started the year around 10% and is going to finish the year at 40%. No other candidate has had this steady rise in the polls, not even Hillary Clinton.

What has not been so clear, largely because Republican media has been flooding the zone with wishful thinking, is that the Trump vote has been splintered, split among several candidates. The GOP spin has played this the other way, claiming the establishment vote was split among a bunch of candidates, thus giving the illusion of a Trump lead in the polls. Once the minor figures drop out, the theory goes, the voters will coalesce around a party man and that would be it.

Yet, the math says otherwise. The latest CNN poll has Trump and 39% and Cruz at 18%. There’s no reason to think that the Cruz vote would go to an establishment figure. People supporting him hate the GOP just as much as the Trump supporters. That’s 57% of the vote. Carson, another outsider candidate is at 10% and it does seem that his vote is shifting to Trump and Cruz.

When 67% of the vote is going for candidates that exist as a rejection of the status quo, it is ridiculous to think that the remaining candidates will collapse into a unitary candidate and win the primary. Given that they are all equally weak, none of them are ready to quit and support the other so by the time a champion midget is crowned, it will probably be too late anyway.

My hunch is we are about to see the race transition into a new phase where the party establishment tries to salvage what they can from the wreckage. I’m not really sure how they can pull it off, but that seems to be the plan Cruz has been banking on for months. His act has been to avoid taking on Trump, letting the others take the beating while he lies low, waiting for his moment. My guess is he thinks his moment will be Iowa.

That sounds a like a great plan, but it assumes Cruz has not already hit the same ceiling we have seen over the past year with other candidates. They bubble up to about 18% and then start to decline again. It also assumes he can survive contact with Trump, something no one has done so far. In fact, the sign that your campaign is over has been when Donald Trump says your name.

I’m not making any predictions, but the way to bet right now is for Trump to be the nominee. He is schlonging Hillary Clinton right now, which will go a long way toward winning him converts in the GOP. Unless Cruz can handle the Trump schlong, he’s probably going to break on the wheel of Trump too.

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[…] President Trump […]

Peltast
Guest
Peltast

Cruz is totally fake, his wife works for Goldman Sachs and he went to NYC to beg for money from jewish homosexuals.

James LePore
Guest

Trump is heading up a rebel alliance, with Cruz, Carson and Fiorina as his lieutenants. Can they bring down the Evil Empire? One can only hope.

karmakelli
Guest
karmakelli

” the sign that your campaign is over has been when Donald Trump says your name.”

OMG that’s priceless! One of the best analyses I’ve read on the Trumpedo.

Andy Texan
Guest

I began with Cruz back in the spring. He’s a great intellect and honest politician. He would be a very fine president. However, he is young and can wait a few more years. Trump is exceptional. I have never seen anyone like him and I love what I see. He has them eating out of his hands and that is what will be needed to collar the GOPe and right ship of state. Trump in a landslide. Cruz would be a great Attorney General. I hope President Trump gives him the assignment of prosecuting members of congress and the administration… Read more »

R. Right
Guest
R. Right

Cruz will be Trump’s VP candidate.

Andy Texan
Guest

Could be, but he might have to pick a stiff from the party to avoid a split like Reagan picking Bush (a tragic error error but required for unity).

Old Codger
Guest
Old Codger

No, definitely need Trey Gowdy for AG and unleash the dogs of war!

Put Cruz as the back-up at VP/insurance. Less likely to be an attempt to knock off Trump, if Cruz is in line to assume the throne.

Andy Texan
Guest

Trey Gowdy can’t cut it. Look at all the investigations in the House that went no where. I want to see every congressman/senator becoming rich while in congress (or just afterwards) prosecuted for corruption. Hello Reid, Lott, Cantor, Boehner, Pelosi, Maxine Waters, Feinstein, and hundreds of others.

joe_mama
Guest
joe_mama

I wonder what the relationship with Trump and Cruz is. It seems like they have some kind of deal/alliance going. Especially that business at the latest debate. Like they’ve already talked VP position for Cruz sort of thing.

Dutch
Guest
Dutch

Sometimes you gotta say “WTF” and just “Trump” it. I believe I am about at that point. Washington is so screwed up, in every dimension, that giving the Donald a shot at it could be cleansing. I would love to see all the rats scurrying from the DC ship. It would make me very happy. Their expressions of angst as they leave would be a bonus.

notsothoreau
Guest
notsothoreau

I also suspect that Trump will be the nominee and will win. He has a lot of support from folks that won’t admit to it. They will vote for him when the time comes but they won’t respond to any polls. I think we need two, maybe 3 things from the next President. We need someone firm on stopping immigration and we need someone that can get past the media to be heard. The third possible thing is a President with the stones to Executive Order a lot of the nonsense that Barak did with his pen and phone. I… Read more »

Vic P
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Vic P

Like you, Z, I am not a big fan of Trump or his style but I competely understand why he consistenly dominates the polls. He is the perfect antidote to seven years of poisonous political correctness spearheaded by the cult’s champion, Obama. Trump is the gag reflex that happens after seven years of shoving Hope and Change down our throats.

Member

The worst thing for Hilary is that Donald has only just started with the foreplay.

He is going to tear her to pieces. If she is playing the victim card now, she won’t survive through to summer. He seems to hold all the aces and she has the 3 of clubs.

Only Donald Trump can blow this election, nobody else can beat him.

Doug
Guest
Doug

I’d bet a body part ole Trump is after some payback. It probably for sure not the only reason he is running for prez. If I’m not mistaken, he was always kind of a red headed stepchild among the political class, I think they tolerated him because he had potentially big political money, but he was looked down upon by the ultimate entitlement class, because he was a working man’s rich guy. I think when he attempted to run previously, he not only found out who his friends weren’t among the sonofabitches running things, but he found out who his… Read more »

James LePore
Guest

In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

Doug
Guest
Doug

10-4 on the truth being a revolutionary idea.
Time to join with the honorable revolution.

Doug
Guest
Doug

You know Z Man, there is an aspect to all this, everything going on that nobody, and I include myself recognizes with due credit. I’m not taking about Trump here either. If you look at the entire sphere of political and cultural activity, we little people receive very short shift. I’ll be really frank and explicit about it regarding my feelings and sense of place. We Don’t Fucking Exist. In the media, politics, economy, “the social contract”, (if there is such a thing, but you probably get my drift), in every facet of life in this country we are the… Read more »

Andy Texan
Guest

In a civil society, government’s only real power is that of legitimacy. In an uncivil society, intimidation by a secret police is the enforcer. Seven years of unlawful government has squandered a goodly amount of their legitimacy. And the Trump candidacy (and to a lesser extent, Cruz) is another bit of concrete evidence.

Dr. Mabuse
Guest

“the main part the dead elephants serve in this insanity called government, is to play good cop to the cultural marxists bad cop. Specifically to pacify those of us with guns.” Of course they are. And so far it’s worked. Right after Obama’s election, the Right generated the Tea Party. And the establishment Republicans worked 24/7 to brainwash everyone with the message: “Go slow. Don’t rock the boat. Don’t be hasty. Take a deep breath.” Their biggest fear was that the Tea Party would turn into a third party, so their propaganda painted that scenario as “handing the election to… Read more »

RobM
Member
RobM

A multi-millionaire who connects with normal folks on a gut level. He’s smart, not lucky. I’m thinking he’s genuine too. Great column…. it’s gonna be interesting to see how the GOPe handles the spring and summer of Trump.

Moneyrunner
Guest

Here’s what everyone who dislikes Trump’s “personal style” does not quite get: it’s his personal style that has gotten him where he is. Is he a “movement conservative?” No. Is he a Tea Partier? No. Is he a Libertarian? No. Does he have an “up from poverty” story? Hell no! Is he even a life-long Republican? No. Is he the only one opposed to illegal immigration? No. So what is it about Donald Trump that allows DRUDGE to post these poll results: REUTERS ROLLING: TRUMP 39.3%, CRUZ 12.8%, CARSON 9.6%, RUBIO 8.5% IT’S HIS STYLE! The Left hates him with… Read more »