If you have been reading this blog for any length of time, you know I’m ambivalent about Trump as a candidate. I’m enjoying the Trump Effect, but I’m not a Trump fan. I don’t hate the guy or have any strong feelings about him one way or the other. I’m just not a fan of his personal style and I have a tough time imagining him as president. Therefore, I have not thought much about him being president.
Watching the press go nuts over Donald’s schlong, er…Trump’s use of the idiomatic expression “schlonged” with regards to Hillary Clinton, I’m pretty close to convinced that Trump is not only going to win the nomination. He is going to be the next president. You can’t be this clever by accident. Sure, some gaffes turn out to work in your favor, but this guy is playing the press like a fiddle. This schlong business smacks of showing off.
Think about it. He uses an odd term that has been used by liberal media outlets like NPR and the NYTimes. That term has a sexual connotation to most people. He uses it on Hillary Clinton. His enemies immediately assume he means something vulgar, but narrative collapse kicks in and we end the cycle by talking about how Clinton’s husband is a rapist. That’s super villain clever and Trump does it regularly.
It’s pretty clear by now that Trump has a solid base of support. The remarkable thing about Trump’s polling in 2015 is the consistency. Poll after poll, pollster after pollster comes up with the same steady climb higher and higher. He started the year around 10% and is going to finish the year at 40%. No other candidate has had this steady rise in the polls, not even Hillary Clinton.
What has not been so clear, largely because Republican media has been flooding the zone with wishful thinking, is that the Trump vote has been splintered, split among several candidates. The GOP spin has played this the other way, claiming the establishment vote was split among a bunch of candidates, thus giving the illusion of a Trump lead in the polls. Once the minor figures drop out, the theory goes, the voters will coalesce around a party man and that would be it.
Yet, the math says otherwise. The latest CNN poll has Trump and 39% and Cruz at 18%. There’s no reason to think that the Cruz vote would go to an establishment figure. People supporting him hate the GOP just as much as the Trump supporters. That’s 57% of the vote. Carson, another outsider candidate is at 10% and it does seem that his vote is shifting to Trump and Cruz.
When 67% of the vote is going for candidates that exist as a rejection of the status quo, it is ridiculous to think that the remaining candidates will collapse into a unitary candidate and win the primary. Given that they are all equally weak, none of them are ready to quit and support the other so by the time a champion midget is crowned, it will probably be too late anyway.
My hunch is we are about to see the race transition into a new phase where the party establishment tries to salvage what they can from the wreckage. I’m not really sure how they can pull it off, but that seems to be the plan Cruz has been banking on for months. His act has been to avoid taking on Trump, letting the others take the beating while he lies low, waiting for his moment. My guess is he thinks his moment will be Iowa.
That sounds a like a great plan, but it assumes Cruz has not already hit the same ceiling we have seen over the past year with other candidates. They bubble up to about 18% and then start to decline again. It also assumes he can survive contact with Trump, something no one has done so far. In fact, the sign that your campaign is over has been when Donald Trump says your name.
I’m not making any predictions, but the way to bet right now is for Trump to be the nominee. He is schlonging Hillary Clinton right now, which will go a long way toward winning him converts in the GOP. Unless Cruz can handle the Trump schlong, he’s probably going to break on the wheel of Trump too.
Here’s what everyone who dislikes Trump’s “personal style” does not quite get: it’s his personal style that has gotten him where he is.
Is he a “movement conservative?” No.
Is he a Tea Partier? No.
Is he a Libertarian? No.
Does he have an “up from poverty” story? Hell no!
Is he even a life-long Republican? No.
Is he the only one opposed to illegal immigration? No.
So what is it about Donald Trump that allows DRUDGE to post these poll results:
REUTERS ROLLING: TRUMP 39.3%, CRUZ 12.8%, CARSON 9.6%, RUBIO 8.5%
IT’S HIS STYLE! The Left hates him with the fire of a thousand suns. Public intellectuals on the Right hate his bombast, his arrogance, his conspicuous display of wealth.
Hey! You ever hear of Rush Limbaugh? The guy who revolutionized AM radio? The guy with the largest audience in radio? Th one-man show who beats NPR?
Sure, you will not attract an audience or get people to listen to you if you don’t address the things that concern people. But if you articulate what people believe and do it in such a way that truly talks to people on their level, you will be successful.
When people hear most politicians speak, their words sound like blah blah blah. I’m a conservative and during the last Presidential election I went to several rallies for Mitt Romney. He’s a good man and would have made a good President. But I cannot recall anything he said at those rallies that was memorable.
If Trump is going to win the nomination and go on to win the election it will be because of his style. It’s going to be interesting to see if there are enough people who like his message and like his style to carry him to the White House. My opinion, for what it’s worth, is that Trump is currently America’s best chance.
A multi-millionaire who connects with normal folks on a gut level. He’s smart, not lucky. I’m thinking he’s genuine too. Great column…. it’s gonna be interesting to see how the GOPe handles the spring and summer of Trump.
You know Z Man, there is an aspect to all this, everything going on that nobody, and I include myself recognizes with due credit. I’m not taking about Trump here either.
If you look at the entire sphere of political and cultural activity, we little people receive very short shift.
I’ll be really frank and explicit about it regarding my feelings and sense of place.
We Don’t Fucking Exist.
In the media, politics, economy, “the social contract”, (if there is such a thing, but you probably get my drift), in every facet of life in this country we are the untouchables far as anyone in this nation with a hand on the levers of power and influence are concerned.
To look at things from the message from virtually every establishment powers that be source, and even some who aren’t, this America I’m a part of does not exist. In every conceivable fashion imaginable we are non existent. In every news cast, article, every photon coming out of our screens, it is like nobody lives in flyover land.
To listen and watch, you would think the only occupants of this great nation are black, brown skinned supermen without faith or religion, lauded for their creation of the evolution of human kind. it is amazing. Trump puts on these rallies, thousands show up, they have to turn people away, or change to a higher occupancy venue, and coming out of the picture screens is a view of 30 or 100 people. It is indicative of the contempt and arrogance of those trying to destroy this great place we call our home, that with such malice and premeditation they can be such willing and active participants in this diaspora. Because that is what it is, a pogrom of the little people of flyover nation. We are the Kulak’s now.
Of course nothing could be further from the truth as to our provenance, because we little people are the only dynamic which really counts. The fuckers wouldn’t be trying to liquidate the idea an America exists anathema to everything the sonofafuckingbitches are if our existence was not an existential threat to their greed and lust for power. It is also true as Andrew Brietbart said, “we have guns”. A lot of guns.
There is something else, something really fishy about the republican branch of statism, and I smell a decomposing rat on that score. It is not just their duplicity and betrayal, it comes around to guns of course, as I think it is all going to come down to guns before Nov 2016 gets here. You can take all sorts of betrayal and treason, from the dead elephants utter failure to get the fuckers from operation fast & furious, to Louis Lener, from Waco to obamacare, too big to fail to Vince Foster, all of which are assaults of person and ideas liberty is conceived of. But what I am beginning to see as the main part the dead elephants serve in this insanity called government, is to play good cop to the cultural marxists bad cop. Specifically to pacify those of us with guns. Sound like tinfoilhattery? Me, I don’t doubt the veracity of my contention one bit, I’m sticking to my guns on this figuratively and literally.
This is how I see it. All those guns us little people have, they are all that stands in the way of totalitarianism in this land. In no uncertain terms. It is very crucial the fuckers tread carefully. They can’t afford for armed rebellion to happen. They will never survive. They have no legitimacy and only an illusion of power. They can’t even afford to rile up just a tiny plurality who refuse to comply and wave their rifles in the fuckers faces. Because that kind of I “Won’t!” once it reaches a certain critical mass they end up with very pissed off people who are armed and have a bone in their teeth, and get the Ceausescu treatment.
Main point I’m trying to convey is the dead elephants are running a pick on the armed citizenry, which in combination with the appearance of the right wing statist party mollifies the armed little people, they throw us a bone or a scrap to keep us quiet. It is the same with almost everything, we are being tag teamed. It is a steady erosion that at every turn another nibble of freedom from their tyranny happens.
But we don’t exist.
Funny that.
The truth IS a revolutionary idea in a time of universal deceit.
Here is a truth, it can only be a truth in this time, because it simply wouldn’t be mentioned if it wasn’t true. Tyrants know who their existential enemies are, as only tyrants can.
In 1994 the Pentagon’s deputy chief of staff for intelligence, a Major Ralph Peters, wrote a position paper, Warrior Class:
“The desire for patriotism is considered an enemy doctrine. The U.S. armed forces must be prepared to fight against all those who oppose the New World Order and who are holding out for nationalism… This new warrior class is most dangerous because they consist of those who fight out of strong religious beliefs… There is a worldwide class of patriots (i.e., “terrorists”) who number in the millions, and if the current trend continues, there may be more of these who…love freedom and are the target of the New World Order… You cannot bargain and compromise with these warriors… We, as the military, need to commit more training to counter these warrior threats. We must have an active campaign to win over the populace. This must be coupled with irresistible violence.”
– from the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor, May/June 1994
Any question about who and what this is directed at?
This is the kind of stuff that runs far deeper than just the face value. Like Cloven/Piven, or Fundamental Transformation of America, how about white right wing extremist, or domestic terrorist, or the name the fuckers have given fly over nation: “The Unsecured Spaces”. And my favorite, “bitter clingers”.
We “don’t exist”, but we sure are something the sonofabitches are afraid of.
It all lends wholesome virtue and credence to us untouchables, a down to earth grass roots provenance to us little people.
The indomitable John Mosby wrote this wonderful missive a few years back:
“Remember:
The fundamental human right to self-defense and its tools does not stem from any piece of parchment or other act of man.
It is much more elemental than that.
I have more principled reasons for my stand on owning firearms, and I don’t care one whit in the world for the Second Amendment. It means nothing to me. My rights have nothing to do with the U.S. Constitution, and when it dawns on people that it has finally been erased — the principal danger of all political premises posed as “social contracts” — my rights will still validly exist, even if I die defending them. I own firearms because I have a right to private property. That is the First Thing.
…As the Regime takes off the gloves, every day it creates tens of thousands more American Patriots who realize yes, it really probably is going to get that bad, so really, they may not have that much to lose after all.
So why not stop being afraid and stand up to the Regime?
Join the honorable Resistance, or make your own. Garden, cook at home, teach your children, and get right with the Lord. Cut expenses, avoid taxes, learn new skills, and build savings of tangible real assets. Train, stockpile, recruit, prepare, guard, protect, and defend.
Make this your finest hour.
Legitimacy, primal liberty. That is what those fuckers are afraid of right there, those festering turds in that cesspool on the Potomac.
And people think Trump is an idiot or not a fellow American worthy of plain ole decent consideration? After 7 years of the fucking sodomite usurper and psychopath occupying the oval office and his sycophants in congress for 9?
Regardless of his motives, the guy has more balls and grit than half this country combined to go up against the sonofabitches. And putting up the wealth he earned to do it? That is paying forward big time in my book. That alone says more about his veracity and principles than any of the fuckers trying to destroy than anything. Besides the fact he risks being assassinated for his efforts.
Who else in the entire sphere of politics can any of imagine who has put their best foot forward in such a fashion at such peril?
Do I think he is a god or a political messiah, hell no, not a chance. But I sure do admire the guys grit and determination. That is the America I know and want. The can do failure is not an option it won’t fail because of me country I was born in and was a part of, still am.
Never say die.
In a civil society, government’s only real power is that of legitimacy. In an uncivil society, intimidation by a secret police is the enforcer. Seven years of unlawful government has squandered a goodly amount of their legitimacy. And the Trump candidacy (and to a lesser extent, Cruz) is another bit of concrete evidence.
“the main part the dead elephants serve in this insanity called government, is to play good cop to the cultural marxists bad cop. Specifically to pacify those of us with guns.”
Of course they are. And so far it’s worked. Right after Obama’s election, the Right generated the Tea Party. And the establishment Republicans worked 24/7 to brainwash everyone with the message: “Go slow. Don’t rock the boat. Don’t be hasty. Take a deep breath.” Their biggest fear was that the Tea Party would turn into a third party, so their propaganda painted that scenario as “handing the election to the Democrats” for the next 8, 12, 20 years.
And it worked: here we are, 7 years later, no further ahead than we were in 2009. If a third party had started then, by now it would be ready to take on the Democrats in the 2016 election. Maybe Donald Trump would be running for the new party. Instead, nothing was done, and all that time was wasted. But the Republicans got what they wanted: pacify the people, and stall them until it was too late for their plans to succeed.
I’d bet a body part ole Trump is after some payback. It probably for sure not the only reason he is running for prez. If I’m not mistaken, he was always kind of a red headed stepchild among the political class, I think they tolerated him because he had potentially big political money, but he was looked down upon by the ultimate entitlement class, because he was a working man’s rich guy. I think when he attempted to run previously, he not only found out who his friends weren’t among the sonofabitches running things, but he found out who his enemies where also. And they made no bones about their contempt for Trump. And some guys you don’t want to piss off no matter how special and privileged you think you are. A guy like Trump, he just isn’t afraid of anyone, especially lazy corrupt mandarins who exist by milking millions of hard working people out of their inherent wealth and prosperity.
I believe we ain’t seen nothing yet. Trump keeps setting traps and the stupid fuckers keep walking right into them. Their hubris blinds them to how terrible they are as people and ridiculous as politicians and ideologues.
Quite frankly it is rich beyond words watching the guy play these fools for exactly the fools and idiots they are.
And damn if it ain’t a target rich environment.
All Trump has to do is tell the truth, no matter how outlandish it is, in fact the more outlandish his politically incorrect revelations of truth are, the more revolutionary he becomes, the more popular he is with people who are sick and fucking tired of the bastards and their arrogance and corruption, in particular the moral corruption kind.
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell
10-4 on the truth being a revolutionary idea.
Time to join with the honorable revolution.
The worst thing for Hilary is that Donald has only just started with the foreplay.
He is going to tear her to pieces. If she is playing the victim card now, she won’t survive through to summer. He seems to hold all the aces and she has the 3 of clubs.
Only Donald Trump can blow this election, nobody else can beat him.
Like you, Z, I am not a big fan of Trump or his style but I competely understand why he consistenly dominates the polls. He is the perfect antidote to seven years of poisonous political correctness spearheaded by the cult’s champion, Obama. Trump is the gag reflex that happens after seven years of shoving Hope and Change down our throats.
I also suspect that Trump will be the nominee and will win. He has a lot of support from folks that won’t admit to it. They will vote for him when the time comes but they won’t respond to any polls. I think we need two, maybe 3 things from the next President. We need someone firm on stopping immigration and we need someone that can get past the media to be heard. The third possible thing is a President with the stones to Executive Order a lot of the nonsense that Barak did with his pen and phone. I think Trump is willing to do that.
Sometimes you gotta say “WTF” and just “Trump” it. I believe I am about at that point. Washington is so screwed up, in every dimension, that giving the Donald a shot at it could be cleansing. I would love to see all the rats scurrying from the DC ship. It would make me very happy. Their expressions of angst as they leave would be a bonus.
I wonder what the relationship with Trump and Cruz is. It seems like they have some kind of deal/alliance going. Especially that business at the latest debate. Like they’ve already talked VP position for Cruz sort of thing.
I began with Cruz back in the spring. He’s a great intellect and honest politician. He would be a very fine president. However, he is young and can wait a few more years. Trump is exceptional. I have never seen anyone like him and I love what I see. He has them eating out of his hands and that is what will be needed to collar the GOPe and right ship of state. Trump in a landslide. Cruz would be a great Attorney General. I hope President Trump gives him the assignment of prosecuting members of congress and the administration for their malfeasance.
Cruz will be Trump’s VP candidate.
Could be, but he might have to pick a stiff from the party to avoid a split like Reagan picking Bush (a tragic error error but required for unity).
No, definitely need Trey Gowdy for AG and unleash the dogs of war!
Put Cruz as the back-up at VP/insurance. Less likely to be an attempt to knock off Trump, if Cruz is in line to assume the throne.
Trey Gowdy can’t cut it. Look at all the investigations in the House that went no where. I want to see every congressman/senator becoming rich while in congress (or just afterwards) prosecuted for corruption. Hello Reid, Lott, Cantor, Boehner, Pelosi, Maxine Waters, Feinstein, and hundreds of others.
” the sign that your campaign is over has been when Donald Trump says your name.”
OMG that’s priceless! One of the best analyses I’ve read on the Trumpedo.
Trump is heading up a rebel alliance, with Cruz, Carson and Fiorina as his lieutenants. Can they bring down the Evil Empire? One can only hope.
Cruz is totally fake, his wife works for Goldman Sachs and he went to NYC to beg for money from jewish homosexuals.
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