Like, Should and Will

People who enjoy quantitative analysis of current events and social policy tend to get irritated by the fact that most people don’t know what “average” means. In fact, most people don’t know the difference between the words “some”, “all” and “many”, treating them as if they are synonyms. The easiest way to activate the nearest outrage machine is to say something like “Some women….” and you can be sure a local gal will clutch her pearls and tell you she is nothing like whatever you described. It’s madness.

Something similar happens to people when discussing social policy or describing a cultural phenomenon. What is good for society, may not always be good for each member of society. Similarly, what you like may not scale up very well. Open borders fanatics fall into this trap. They look at the quaint ethnic eateries around their college campus and think, “This is how it should be everywhere!” They never stop to think if it should be something we attempt and they never think about what actually will happen.

It’s not just liberals and libertarians that get confused by this. Lots of people say they want America to return to its constitutional founding, never stopping to think if we should actually try to do it. If we tried to roll back the 19th Amendment, there would be endless protests, even if every state promised women the franchise. Rolling back the Reconstruction Amendments would launch a civil war. You may like the idea of going back to the original, but we shouldn’t attempt it, which is why we will never try it.

This circles back to the topic of internet commerce. Lots of people like the convenience of ordering on-line and having their goods delivered to them. Some people like the fact they can buy on-line from cheaper foreign sources, thus saving some money. That’s perfectly understandable, but that does not mean we should, as a society, let Amazon monopolize the retail marketplace. There may be ugly trade-offs. Even if we can figure it out, that does not mean we will act accordingly. Instead, we will plow ahead and learn the hard way.

The easy thing to get right is what you like. The old maxim about being conservative about what you know best applies here. All the people screaming at me for questioning the wisdom of letting Amazon own the marketplace are doing so because they know how much they like shopping on-line. They don’t want any discussion of changing it. They know their tastes and habits better than anyone so they are the most conservative about those things. As a result, they instinctively recoil at any criticism of the internet economy.

To be clear, we all do this to some degree. I reject any and all efforts to impose regulations on gun ownership. I know the gun laws better than most and I know the gun statistics better than most. The only changes I favor are repeals of existing laws, but any mention of “gun laws” or “gun crimes” puts me in a defensive crouch. The most conservative position is to resists any discussion of changing gun laws so that is my default position. As a result, I probably have a few things wrong about the gun debate.

Where things always get squirrely is when the topic moves into what we should do as a society. Libertarians, of course, leave the room at this point because they think “should” means “must” and they are against coercion. This is one of the reasons I have so little patience with libertarians. Politics is about what will be done and that results from the debate over what should be done. The libertarian impulse to retreat into proselytizing about their principles makes them worse than useless in the war with the Left.

Liberals claim to hold the moral high ground so all of their proclamations about what should be done are invested with moral authority. It is why they frame every debate in moral terms. That way, they avoid the granular analysis of what they are doing, so the focus shifts to the morality of their intentions. It is often assumed that this is a deliberate tactic, but it is instinctual. Progressivism is a religion. The adherents naturally frame everything in terms of their faith, in the same way Muslims rely on the Koran for their authority.

Buckley conservatives abandoned public morality long ago, so they are reduced to turning everything into a math problem. This appeals to many libertarian-ish people which is why you see so many of them hanging around the Official Right™. It would be nice if public policy could be decided, at least to some degree, by mathematics, but there’s no history of that ever happening, which means it will most likely never happen. It’s why the Buckley Right has lost every fight over the last 25 years. You don’t beat morality with math.

Of course, no matter what your conception of what should happen is, the odds that it will happen are fairly low. Even the most modest plans have unintended consequences and most of us are easily deluded by our sense of righteousness. It is why Progressivism has devolved into a madhouse of lunacy. They stand on their soapboxes sermonizing about what should happen, only to see the opposite happen. The recent string of elections has them thinking the gods have abandoned them, which is why they are so distraught.

This is not a post with some great important point to make so I’ll wrap it up. The one take away here is that when I write about some public phenomenon, I’m usually looking at it from the various angles of the “should” position. Is this something we should embrace? Is this something we should tolerate? That sort of thing. You may like midget porn, for example, but we should not have it on television. On the other hand, you may hate paying your taxes, but we should enforce tax laws, even the terrible ones.

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karl hungus
karl hungus
7 years ago

the buckley right won every fight they entered into. which is zero.

Eclectic Esoteric
Eclectic Esoteric
7 years ago

We might want to examine rampant consumerism, the shadow being cast as overflowing closets, basements and landfills. When I feel the impulse to buy more stuff, I clean house, and usually find what I thought I needed. The task is completed by taking one bag to the garbage can and two to goodwill.

Member
7 years ago

You might not beat morality with math, but that’s a little like saying you don’t beat morality with gravity. Gravity always wins. As the People of Illinois are learning, math is winning there too. I’m sure somebody will swoop in to save them from the math, but it cannot be argued that their morality has triumphed over math. As far as internet shopping goes, I like it. I should support local businesses and local citizens, which I do, in the form of the fleets of local truck drivers who deliver products to my door. When I can, I will buy… Read more »

notsothoreau
notsothoreau
Reply to  hokkoda
7 years ago

At the rate it’s going, the internet will be unusable in five years. It’s fun to interact with folks on blogs, but blogging seems to be dying. I ran a link checker on my list of Delicious bookmarks. Over half are dead links, and some of the links that are live are 404 errors. Commercial websites tend to be poorly written. I can’t use the Daily Caller on my phone. Do they understand how hard it is to clear their useless popups on a phone? I don’t even bother at that point. In fact, some of these sites seem to… Read more »

Member
Reply to  notsothoreau
7 years ago

I think the parts of the internet that are vestiges of the 1990’s and early 2000’s will be gone soon. Email is an example. Social media and texting have overcome email. Email is becoming basically “bulk mail” like all the stuff you throw away without looking at it after you empty your mailbox for the one thing (of 20 in there) that you actually needed. If I want to contact somebody, I text them now. I usually don’t try to voice call because everybody call-screens now. People have retreated into one-off types of blogs like at a large party where… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  hokkoda
7 years ago

People like a free and intelligent exchange of perspectives, in a predictable and accessible format, without all the pop-ups, and a regular calendar of new topics. Like this site. Now, how it translates to anything other than a nice intellectual exercise for Mr. Z, I am not smart enough to figure that out.

The upvote/downvote feedback is important, too, as it allows the commentariat to test drive their ideas in front of an intelligent audience.

Matt
Matt
Reply to  notsothoreau
7 years ago

Get the instapaper app for your phone or table (or both) and configure your phone/tablet/browser to save the articles you want to read.

Game changer for those who prefer reading over fighting bad design & ads.

TWS
TWS
Reply to  hokkoda
7 years ago

Is it the laws of gravity or ISIS that is killing homosexuals in Iran and Syria? Is it the laws of chemistry and physics or terrorists that are killing people from Manchester to Mogadishu?

As Milius famously wrote, “What is steel compared to the hand that wields it? Look at the strength in your body, the desire in your heart, I gave you this!”

Member
Reply to  TWS
7 years ago

Is that morality or math? I say those killings are math dressed up in morality. They know the morality alone won’t get the job done, but body counts can get the job done. That’s why the Left is such a joke around the world. While they hash tag kidnappers, the people “on the wrong side of history” are doing the math. Or, take something a little less violent, like climate change. Morality isn’t getting it done, so they’re faking the math. The problem, of course, is that they have to keep revising their predictions as the math models fail timevand… Read more »

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  hokkoda
7 years ago

Last time I checked – “morality” told me that lying is bad. Which is why I think that math IS morality – because no matter what your progressive college professor told you – 1+1 still equals 2. Trying to convice people that it now equals 3 – is a lie. When states like Illinois engage in the budget lunacy they have engaged in – they suffer the consequences of violating the rules of math – AND morality. Because the math says you’re only going to be able to extract so much in taxation from the subject population – and the… Read more »

Member
Reply to  Calsdad
7 years ago

Welp, math is the language of the universe, and the universe has a Creator from whom we derive our sense of morality. So, yes. Btw, lying – falsehoods – are derived from logic. Highly logical people, people who are good at math intuitively, are very, very hard to lie to. They have very high bullshit detectors. Also, you’re basing your definition of math and morality on what I’ll politely call our shared Judeo-Christian Western definitions of morality. The Muslims follow a very different morality. As do Buddhists and those People’s Temple (Jones cult kool-aid drinkers). We just happen to believe… Read more »

Severian
7 years ago

This is why I’m openly, unashamedly “elitist.” As Derbyshire said somewhere, it’s not a choice between having an elite and not having one; it’s between having an elite that looks like this, vs. one that looks like that. Once we acknowledge that, even in a dorm room bull session kind of way — and that’s how I pitch it — we can talk about what we should do to make sure the elite acts in pro-civic ways.

Dutch
Dutch
7 years ago

I have been pondering the wisdom of allowing 51% of the voters to lord it over the other 49%. Our Constitution was crafted to protect the 49% from the 51%, but we have left that document by the side of the road, it seems. As the two sides are at complete loggerheads, it seems that the national division will only get worse. I am not a big libertarian fan, but getting the authorities out of everyone’s business is something I can get behind. It was a big part of what the Constitution is (was?) about, and the only way IMO… Read more »

notsothoreau
notsothoreau
Reply to  Dutch
7 years ago

It’s not just an issue of neutering the authorities. It’s about restraining unelected bureaucrats. Too many elected officials at the state and Federal level have handed off lawmaking to “experts”. Once the bureaucrats have power, they write their own laws. State law here says upland property owners can have a recreational dock. The problem is that DNR has the say over it and they are not obligated to approve it or even give you any information on the requirements. Somehow, they have managed to put in a rule that says you can only have a dock that you share with… Read more »

TWS
TWS
Reply to  notsothoreau
7 years ago

This government is entirely unsuited to half or more of our population. We have imported people who are not intelligent, God fearing, or honest enough by our old standards.

Our current system is not possible with our current population. No amount of information, education, or even experience will be enough during our lifetime to turn people who were not born, educated, experienced, or understand our system into the kind of citizens our system was designed for.

karl hungus
karl hungus
Reply to  TWS
7 years ago

bring back slavery

Member
Reply to  Dutch
7 years ago

What is much worse is when that 49% finds it can enforce its will on the 51%. All too often intransigence overwhelms math. Because rainbow.

Member
7 years ago

In essence, the vast majority of people aren’t very bright.

Member
Reply to  Adrian_Drummond
7 years ago

Ain’t it the truth!

JohnTyler
JohnTyler
7 years ago

It’s also important to understand the significance of, say, a calculated statistic such as an average. After all the “average” American adult wears a one cup bra and has one testicle. Or, if a room contains 200 people, exactly half of whom are 6 feet tall and the other half are exactly 5 feet tall, then their average height is 5 1/2 feet tall. Oft times statistics are tossed about to provide proof of something or other, but are used merely to fool people. For example, say that today in City X, USA, they recorded the hottest high temperature in… Read more »

JohnTyler
JohnTyler
Reply to  JohnTyler
7 years ago

Forgot to mention that my first two examples demonstrate that an “average” can represent total nonsense.

Ned2
Ned2
Member
7 years ago

You’re not wrong about the gun debate, because there shouldn’t even be a debate.
No existing gun regulation is enforceable as it contradicts our natural right to defend ourselves.
It’s as logical as trying to regulate the clothes people wear.

Member
7 years ago

Living as I do in a place just a tad west of the middle of nowhere in South America, I get a great kick out of the concerns posted here. Although I don’t think I need ’em yet, I’ve got a stashed street sweeper 12 gauge and a 9mm Bersa, just in case. As for consumer items, barely buy any, so I don’t much care about that. It’d be kind of fun to be able to buy more “stuff” through the internet if I cared about having any, which I don’t, but I guess the bottom line is that I’m… Read more »

Epaminondas
Member
Reply to  Montefrio
7 years ago

Enjoy the wine. I hear they have good ones down there.

Ron
Ron
7 years ago

Any attempt to decide and legalized “Should” is fraught with moral hazard and unintended consequences. That’s why we have courts, juries, and judges, to work out the gray areas and migrating circumstances that arise in each criminal case. SJW’s want a society with iron clad guarantees to prevent any and all manner of injustices. Hence the inclusion of hate crime to a murder charge, as if the former is more grievous than the actual act of taking a life. The Libertarians essentially want no laws, naively trusting that people will adhere the non-aggression principle, and not tread on others. This… Read more »

Epaminondas
Member
7 years ago

“Rolling back the Reconstruction Amendments would launch a civil war.”

Very probably any leadership advocating this course of action would be swiftly repressed long before the onset of a civil conflict. However, another civil war may very well be in the cards for completely different reasons. And if at the end of that conflict our side is victorious, what would hinder us from pursuing a radical elimination of post-1865 amendments? After burying the bodies, we would be free to pursue any course of action, just as the other side did subsequent to that 19th century civil war.

Drake
Drake
7 years ago

Republicans in Congress should reform, cut, and simplify the tax code. They should also embrace Trump’s budget proposals like cutting Federal spending and the number of federal employees.

Like you theoretical libertarians, the Republicans got offended by these suggestions and left the room.

Karl Hungus
Karl Hungus
Reply to  Drake
7 years ago

repeal the ammendment that introduced the income tax. gop almost has enough states to do it unilaterally. big vote earner too.

Whiskey
Whiskey
7 years ago

Our elites are rotten because they have little at risk. The Hapsburgs, the Bourbons, the English Aristocracy and Hanoverian dynasty were as nasty as the Zuckerbergs and Bezos, but owned real property easily taken by foreigners, leaving them with nothing. For Bezos and Zuck, not so. I don’t require and its futile to demand virtue in rulers, I merely want their interests generally aligned with mine. So I don’t have half of Africa moving into my neighborhood, or a quarter of the Middle East. As for Amazon, it is a bad monopoly, but not the one you think. It makes… Read more »

Member
Reply to  Whiskey
7 years ago

Whiskey, First of all, it is good to find you back on the web again. Second, I think you are right about Amazon. It provides choice. I think of it much like the old Sears and Montgomery Ward catalogs were for our peasant ancestors. except you can’t use it to wipe yourself. Internet shopping brings you stuff otherwise unobtainable at any price.It is also true that Amazon does not have everything, there are soe specialist items which I have found only at other specialist websites – such as Advanced Book Exchange for out of print. Russia also has two online… Read more »

Member
7 years ago

You seem to be conflating two separate, although related, issues. Foreign goods and online retailers. Wal-mart has long sold imports from China and anyplace else that gives them a price edge. They have also moved into the online market space, but shutting that down is not going to affect that fact that most of the goods they sell come from outside the US. I would argue that online retail is an easier market to enter for a new competitor. No need to lease expensive retail space. All you need is bandwidth and warehouse space. Trade policy should be the focus,… Read more »

Garr
Garr
7 years ago

No hope of political salvation by democratic means (repealing women’s suffrage, anti-discrimination laws), no hope through civil war (which would be horrible and quite likely lost), no hope through military coup (won’t happen); only hope I see is that someone like Trump does a sort of political “swamp-draining” coup through appointments and firings — not that this would Make America Great Again, just that it would give us a couple of extra centuries. Maybe he was right to bullshit people about the Wall and the Muslim Ban — he had to get into position to do the hiring and firing… Read more »

james wilson
Reply to  Garr
7 years ago

Two centuries? Shit, man, we are out here praying for twenty years.

tz1
Member
7 years ago

The problem with liberals is not what they want, but their idea that a simple policy change (even if it violates separation of power principles and human rights) will accomplish the good they desire. They don’t fight for the good, they fight for the policy. They want people to make a living wage so they raise the minimum wage. And the minimum wage is raised successfully. But as everyone from Bastiat to Hazlitt to Hayek noted, the unintended and sometimes unseen effects can not only negate the intended good, but multiply the evils. Yet the liberal will somehow be stuck… Read more »

Anonymous White Male
Anonymous White Male
7 years ago

“You don’t beat morality with math.”

Not as long as the “moral” media spins the tale. But, math can beat morality. Say a muzzie invader shouting “Iwanna snackbar” kills two dirt people. Math will not beat the pseudo morality of posing as a hate free hater. However, if a couple of muzzle cells detonate nuclear weapons in two different major cities, math will probably win. In fact, at that point, hate will become the new morality.

David_Wright
Member
7 years ago

Wait till Alibaba gets a real foothold in the US.

Rod Horner
Rod Horner
Reply to  David_Wright
7 years ago

Given the proximity of Bezos to the Deep State I’d expect ISIS cells to begin cropping up all over China the moment Alibaba got that foothold.

Matt
Matt
7 years ago

Mean and median are often used as synonyms. Blame it on the failed education state. Scary but true.

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
7 years ago

Re Amazon, Facebook, Hollywood et. al.: Time to actually apply anti-trust law and change from being a toothless shakedown threat. As evidence for that latter assertion, it’s been pretty quiet over the last 8 years of Hollywood – Silicon Valley – Wall St. Prog funding.

The advantages are several: Attacks the Prog ecosystem; Promotes economic efficiency; Sends the message to back off the insanity; etc.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Al from da Nort
7 years ago

The Progs represent the “free stuff” at all levels, including being cronies of government officials and getting a lucrative piece of public policy, tax breaks, and funding. Ask Elon Musk how that works. These companies all support the side that gives them free stuff, and also the “strong horse”. Break the “free stuff” cycle and also demonstrate that the “strong horse” is the normals, and these guys will change their stripes very fast. The normals also have a huge advantage right now. The Progs, at all levels, are acting crazy, and most people want nothing to do with crazy. Today,… Read more »

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  Dutch
7 years ago

I’ve thought since mid 2016 that Trump’s Tweets were a deliberate strategy to keep the enemy center of gravity, the MSM, off balance by moving the public discussion to another topic before they could all get the the DNC talking points, coordinate their sound bites and then gin up the outrage machine. Since it takes them about 3 – 4 days to start up their cycle, a tweet every 2 days keeps them continuously trying to play catchup. Subsequent events (the rolling coup) have shown how wise he was to reject the establishment’s demands the he stop tweeting. He’s going… Read more »

Member
Reply to  Al from da Nort
7 years ago

You’re onto something. Trump’s tweets are a legal substitute for the Slick Willie strategy of keeping the enemy off balance with a new scandal every day, to make they let go of yesterday’s.

TomA
TomA
7 years ago

I think you presume far too much intelligence, thoughtfulness, and volition in regard to the individual members of our species who behave with habitual incoherence and stupidity. This malady is a root level dysfunction, e.g. the toolbox that evolution endowed us with has been utterly corrupted and, had these idiots been born 10,000 years ago, nature would likely have disposed of them long before they could reproduce and poison the gene pool.

Steve Ryan
Steve Ryan
7 years ago

Midget porn? Ive heard theres an Italian porn movie based on Snow White and the Seven Dwarves. May fly on modern cable TV…

Pericles
Pericles
7 years ago

Not every libertarian is a non aggression principle political anarchist. The other faction believes in minimal government, maximal individual liberty and personal responsibility. Those principles guide our decision making as to what is a desirable public policy – which provides for learning from experience and taking corrective measures in order to optimize results.

Worldly Wiseman
Worldly Wiseman
Reply to  Pericles
7 years ago

there is no such thing as believing in small government or personal responsibility. you are describing a mysterious thing known to the rest of us as being an adult.

TWS
TWS
Reply to  Pericles
7 years ago

NALALT

Teapartydoc
Member
7 years ago

Late to the show b/c off the grid. The question of what we should tolerate came up. Five years ago I would never have dreamed of saying this, but one thing we should learn to tolerate: Nazis. Not just the larpers. People who seem to be that way without really knowing it, too. We need to acknowledge that they are on the right side of this fight, at least for now, and that we have common ground. Trump has proven that they can be pragmatic and accept less than perfect solutions as long as things point in the right direction.… Read more »

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Teapartydoc
7 years ago

Retreating our way to Victory!
Boring people to death is the libertarian A-bomb. No wonder they’d rather shoot us on sight.

james wilson
Reply to  Teapartydoc
7 years ago

What an awful thing to say! Didn’t National Review just warn you that some truths should not be spoken? Otherwise, I might think that a National Socialist is at least human, however I compute his legendary vices; while the international socialist is anti-human, and enthusiastically so.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
7 years ago

Harrumph. What about poptarts?
Everyone knows poptarts are a gateway to gun violence.

Member
7 years ago

Your views on shopping local vs. Amazon changed my mind.
Quite seriously.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
7 years ago

Conservatives like the 2nd Amendment because it enables them to eliminate the others, along with inherent rights.

The Right is the Armed Left.

Billy
7 years ago

“It would be nice if public policy could be decided, at least to some degree, by mathematics”
But isn’t reality itself determined by mathematics ?
Detroit, Greece, Venezuela, USSR, etc show that ultimately politics submit to mathematics.
Internet, social medias, bitcoin dictate different aspects of society.
Would Donald Trump have won without social medias ? Probably not.

Principles should not be forgotten, but also not pretext to inaction. Conciliating what is, and what should be is extremely difficult, we can only do our best to choose wisely.

Antipas
Antipas
7 years ago

Libertarian types are rationalizing things like Amazon’s increasing retail hegemony by saying that over time it will be weakened by counter social trends that will be deemed “cooler”.

These arguments make no sense to me since I don’t know anybody who actually thinks shopping at Amazon is “cool” right now. Yet people still do it and they do it because it’s easier and often times cheaper. Also, shopping online is inherently anti-social since you’re not going out and being seen in public, thus no status upgrade comes with it.