Serendipity

In early December of 1241, the great Mongol army was camped on the Hungarian plain, poised to invade Europe “all the way to the Great Sea.” In the spring, they had defeated the Hungarian army at the battle of Mohi and spent the summer and fall ravaging eastern Europe. By autumn, all of the lands east of what is now modern Germany had been subdued by the Mongols. There was no army between the Mongols and the Atlantic Ocean capable of stopping them from ravaging the rest of the continent.

Then, in the middle of December, Ogedei Khan, the Great Khan, died on a hunting trip, most likely drunk. He was well known as a drunkard and the legend is he fell of his horse while drunk. Regardless of the reason, his death required all of the Mongol leaders to return home and select a new Great Khan. That meant the Mongol Army, instead of sacking Europe, returned home. It was one of the strange, fortunate events that probably made it possible for Europe to be Europe. The Mongols were not known for their mercy.

To put this into some perspective, the Mongols invaded what is now Iraq, known in the 13th century as the Abbasid Caliphate. This was the third caliphate, whose rulers were descended from Abbas, the uncle of Muhammad. Baghdad was the capital and at the time, one of the most advanced cities in the world.  The Mongols sacked the city in 1258, putting anywhere from 200,000 to one million people to the sword. They destroyed the city, filled the canals and stole or burned everything of value. It was an annihilation.

At the time, Baghdad was the center of the Islamic world.The Grand Library of Baghdad may have been the most important center of knowledge on earth at the time. It had books ranging from medicine to astronomy. The 36 public libraries in the city were also burned. Of course, the scholars and learned people who used those books and libraries were murdered. What was once the center of Islamic learning was destroyed. The population of the city and surrounding areas did not recover until the 19th century.

The point of this is that serendipity often plays a definitive role in humans affairs. At the dawn of the 13th century, there was no reason to think Europe was about to rocket ahead of the rest of the world. Through the Middle Ages, Europe slowly began to develop more advanced societies and develop a high culture, but they were still playing catch-up with Asia and the Middle East. Yet, the totally unexpected and unpredictable events of the Mongol invasions, radically changed the trajectory of Europe and the Middle East.

In retrospect, it is easy to look at a singular event like the Great Khan dropping dead just when his armies are about to sack Europe and see the significance. Once you read the story of the Mongol invasions, you know the West dodged something close to a meteor strike. The Siege of Baghdad, and its subsequent obliteration, is probably the great inflection point in the history of Islam. There’s no doubt that Islamic intellectual curve bent sharply downward because of the Mongol invasions and destruction of Baghdad.

The thing is, serendipity can also be the result of great stupidity. The Mongols initially tried to establish trade relations with the Khwarezmid Shah, who ruled the lands between the Mongols and the Abbasid Caliphate. The trouble was the caliph and shah hated one another and conspired to keep each other from making a deal with the Mongols. It’s a matter of dispute, but some historians argue that the Mongols never would have invaded if they could have struck a deal. They took the rejection as an insult and invaded.

This brings us to some rather interesting serendipity of our own age. In 2015, there was no reason to think the 2016 election was going to be anything but more of the same. The smart money said it would be Bush versus Clinton to decide the title. If not Bush, then one of the Bush family flunkies. Then like the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs, Trump entered the race and altered the political trajectory of the empire. Not only has this event extinguished the Bush wing of the GOP, it is threatening the neo-liberal world order.

How did this happen? Mostly it is due to Trump getting angry about how the political class has treated him. Like all rich guys, he had spread his money around to buy friends in the political class. He never had any respect for them, but if you want to do business in the world you have to do business with the people who run it. According to people who know him, what got Trump interested in running is being disrespected by the people in the chattering classes. The political class simply ticked off the wrong guy.

How this improbable event happened is going to be debated for a long time, but there is no debate about the consequences. Imagine if Clinton were president. The CIA meddling in our politics would only have accelerated. The corruption of the FBI would never have been revealed. In fact, it would have metastasized. People like to focus on the policy issues that would have been different with Clinton in power, but without the miracle of Trump, Washington would be ruled today by a dumpy old Caligula in a muumuu.

Here’s another bit of serendipity. Even if Trump won, much of this would never have come to light if not for two wholly unnecessary actions taken by the Democrats. One is the nonsense about Russian hacking. For no other reason than spite, the Left embraced this ridiculous narrative. The demands for an IG investigation of the FBI’s handling of the Clinton e-mail stuff came from liberal Democrats. They were the ones who demanded it, after blaming Comey for the election loss. Two dumb decisions have changed the world.

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Glen Filthie
Glen Filthie
Member
2 years ago

Now THAT’S how ya start a Monday! Well done Z. If we are going to draw historical parallels, the version I read was that Europe was save from the golden horde because all their best leaders went back home to fight for control and replace the Khan. We need to start thinking past Trump now. There needs to be an order of succession, and the next guy has gotta be on the ball. Hillary may be a syphallitic dumpy old derelict in a muumuu … but she almost won… and would have too, had not your Founding Fathers built in… Read more »

David Wright
Member
Reply to  Glen Filthie
2 years ago

I thought it was Tuesday.

Glenfilthie
Glenfilthie
Member
Reply to  David Wright
2 years ago

Sorry – I’m in Canada coming off a long weekend … 🙁

Teapartydoc
Member
Reply to  Glenfilthie
2 years ago

Feels like Monday to me, too.

PawPaw
PawPaw
Reply to  Teapartydoc
2 years ago

It’s not Monday or Tuesday. It’s Woodpile Report day.

Norm der Ploom
Norm der Ploom
Reply to  PawPaw
2 years ago

In Australia it’s Wednesday.

Richard Jefferies
Reply to  Norm der Ploom
2 years ago

And in New Zealand.

havermeyer
havermeyer
Reply to  Glenfilthie
2 years ago

Wait a minute. Is it a day earlier in Canada? Explains a lot.

James LePore
Member
2 years ago

The third thing was and continues to be the left’s so-called “resistance movement” including their open support of scumbags like Antifa and BLM. It appears that they hate Trump (and the Dirt People) so much that they are committing progicide.

Pimpkin's Nephew
Pimpkin's Nephew
Reply to  James LePore
2 years ago

I look forward to a ‘national Jonestown event’ yielding several million dead progressives. The thing is, we need a Jimmy Jones, or a Hale-Bopp comet – on Facebook – to set off the necessary self-removal.

I salute progicide. What’s needed is some kind of all-embracing meme that makes them leap off cliffs, as lemmings do, and clear the area so that normal people can go about the business of keeping life on the rails, which is all we can do.

calsdad
calsdad
Reply to  Pimpkin's Nephew
2 years ago

RE: Progicide It might already be happening. My father spends a few months in Florida over the winter and just came back a week ago. I hadn’t talked to him much in the last month because I was just so busy. When I talked to him a couple of days ago – he told me that his second wife’s sister – had been “hospitalized” – because she was “depressed” , and had apparently been muttering things like “there’s just no use going on” and ” it’s all falling apart” and other similar things. This woman is in her late 60’s… Read more »

Soylent Green
Soylent Green
Reply to  Pimpkin's Nephew
2 years ago

Progressives, a herd of lemmings in the act of flinging themselves over a cliff who are primed to discuss the importance of teamwork, the need to stay focused on the task at hand, and the necessity of [m]aintaining a positive attitude. 😆

WOPR
WOPR
2 years ago

I watched the video where they savaged Trump at the Correspondents Dinner. It was simply a bizarre act. What was the point of going after him? Trump was never considered a serious candidate. Instead they made him furious and you could see it on his face.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  WOPR
2 years ago

Because many people are small, insecure, and never learned any manners. They sense that they are in a pack of like minded people, and use that support and protection to savage others. They say and do things that they would never support other people doing, in general. They say and do things they would be afraid to say and do on their own, without the protection of the herd. They say and do things that, if done to them, would provoke outrage and declarations of “how could you say such things”? Tells you all you need to know about the… Read more »

Member
Reply to  WOPR
2 years ago

Well, you beat me to the comment I was going to make- that correspondents dinner was what I believe finally inflamed Trump enough to run- especially the “mic-drop” bit that was written for Obama. Now, I think Trump had some of that coming to him for the birth certificate nonsense, but that still didn’t fully excuse the treatment that given him at that event- it really was all kind of like a bad version of high school popular kids ganging up on an outsider.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Yancey_Ward
2 years ago

I don’t know where Obama was born, it is a moot issue anyway at this point, but the “birth certificate” offered as proof was a “cut and paste” job of crude quality. There are reports that information on all of the historical records of people entering Hawaii from abroad are still on file, except for a blank gap for the week surrounding Obama’s birth, which is an interesting tidbit. I’m willing to keep the question open, purely as an intellectual exercise, and possibly as supporting evidence of how the reality we are told to accept is at least partially manufactured… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Dutch
2 years ago

One other thing that has proven out to be true over time. When Trump makes a statement, the facts may be twisted around a bit to fit his argument, but they haven’t been found to be wrong. He is very good at vetting his own statements before they are made, especially the provocative ones.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Dutch
2 years ago

An MS-13 thug just got 40 years for murder. His gang nickname? “Animal”. Trump does his homework, this may not be a blind coincidence.

PawPaw
PawPaw
Reply to  Dutch
2 years ago

Dutch, concerning the cut and paste birth certificate did your b******* alarm go off when the State Health Department official was the only death in the plane crash off Molokai? She was the official who supposedly authenticated and released the birth certificate. Such an untimely demise!

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  PawPaw
2 years ago

What I heard was that she survived the crash (as did the others), and then succumbed to a heart attack during the rescue.

Well, Arkancides happen in Arkansas because Billy Boy is from there. Is this a Hawaiicide? Who the heck do we know from Hawaii?

my 2 cent
my 2 cent
Reply to  Dutch
2 years ago

Thanks. Always a touch annoying when people have to add something like “nonsense” after a thought, to show they’re not one of those “conspiracy-believing” people. That’s exactly why the term “conspiracy theory” was created by the CIA.

calsdad
calsdad
Reply to  Dutch
2 years ago

My take-away from all the sturm and drang around Obama’s birth is pretty simple. If you were trying to make the point that a black man can be President of the U.S. and do just as good a job as a white man – then why not pick a black man who’s heritage UNEQUIVOCALLY shows him to be an American? For better or worse there have been black people in North America since before the United States was even founded as a nation , and there has to be prominent successful black men out there as qualified to be President… Read more »

Mark Taylor
Member
Reply to  WOPR
2 years ago

The original birther is Obama. A bio for his book said he was born in Kenya. He claims not to know how that happened.

Sim1776
Sim1776
Reply to  Mark Taylor
2 years ago

The whole “birther” discussion is a moot point. Unless Obama admits Frank Marshall Davis is his father, he does not qualify as natural-born according to Black’s. Obama, Sr. was a subject of the Crown. It’s the same way that Rubio, Cruz, and Romney aren’t qualified. The captured courts refused to hear any case that brought up the subject.

Bill Jones
Member
Reply to  Mark Taylor
2 years ago

He is a ,Kenyan.If you read the Kenyan constitution ( I did) if
either parent is Kenyan so are you. There was no provision for renunciation.

Tom
Tom
2 years ago

Read Turchin’s competition among elites bring down society? Spencer’s upward mobility in the pundit world was blocked by mediocre jews, who monopolize such positions, so he decided to go out on his own, probably much of the ar is like this.

BestGuest
BestGuest
2 years ago

“Caligula in a muumuu” That one will have me smiling all day.

Tamaqua
Tamaqua
2 years ago

Too bad the Mongols didn’t push on to Mecca and leave it a smoking wreck… As for the next few years, if Trump can purge the political class using the clubs handed to him by the coup plotters, we might see some real rollback of the revolutionary left. What we must do is start placing our own ideologues within the institutions now, to ensure that Trump’s effect lasts beyond his term (or two) in office. I’d start with disbanding the FBI, and breaking up its function and personnel among other agencies, and each former FBI agent assigned a politically reliable… Read more »

Rod1963
Rod1963
Reply to  Tamaqua
2 years ago

Trump can’t do anything since he has little authority in such matters, he has no control over the DOJ, FBI or any other law enforcement organization. None of them answer to him in case you haven’t noticed. Congress? It’s toothless and corrupt. , Trump could fire Sessions and Rosenstein but won’t. The Senate has threatened to stomp on him if he does. I think they would impeach him if he did. You want to fix this shit? Get a million whites to march on D.C. and get into the f**king faces of every House and Senate committee chairmen and leaders… Read more »

jimvonyork
jimvonyork
Reply to  Rod1963
2 years ago

Problem with a million whites march is that those are the people who go to work everyday, trying to keep their families fed. If you wanted to get a million dindus to march, just cancel their EBT cards.

Saurons_Lazy_Eye
Member
2 years ago

a dumpy old Caligula in a muumuu

Caligula would refer to his great-grandmother Livia as Ulixes stolatus/”Odysseus in a dress”.

Is the similarity of your expression and his intentional or just serendipity?

Richter Rox
Richter Rox
2 years ago

I like to think of dramatic historical turns as proof of devine intervention, that the universe has a guiding hand. But thats just me

Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby
2 years ago

He got his reality check….or peek behind the curtain during the Romney campaign.

Whitney
Member
2 years ago

“The political class simply ticked off the wrong guy.”

And thank God for that. A couple nights ago I had to listen to a rino I know tick off all the ways that Trump is doing well but not before they delivered a five-minute Soliloquy on what an idiot Trump is. I’m so sick of these people

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  Whitney
2 years ago

Next time you find yourself being yammered at like that, tell them to go fukk themselves.

my 2 cents
my 2 cents
Reply to  Whitney
2 years ago

Yep. Their favorite is to say “I don’t like Trump, but” before saying good stuff about him. Just to be sure they’re not take for one of “those people.”

Sidvic
Sidvic
Member
2 years ago

There is a Providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children and the United States of America. Bismarck

I chuckle ever time i think of these guys realizing that Trump actually won and that the jig was up.

Cerulean
Cerulean
2 years ago

Great essay!

TomA
TomA
2 years ago

If Clinton had won, then it is very likely that DC corruption would have gone through the roof. Not only organized institutional theft of public funds (standard corruption), but also unfettered blackmail, evolution into a true police state, and consolidation of absolute power within a very small cabal. At it’s worse, think Seth Rich’s murder. This acceleration into the abyss may actually have triggered a much needed hot revolution and a cleansing that is way overdue.

Spud Boy
Spud Boy
2 years ago

If the media, celebrities and the Left in general had treated Trump with even a modicum of respect and decency throughout the campaign, he would have lost.

When I’m in need of some light entertainment, I go back and watch the 2016 pre-election predictions and the election returns. My favorite is watching Cenk Uygur and his panel of ignorant Leftists’s heads explode as Hillary loses swing state after swing state. It never gets old.

David Wright
Member
Reply to  Spud Boy
2 years ago

I know, it is my favorite pick me up too. Watching the whole timeline is like an opiate for me.

Once in a while we have to pause when discouraged and imagine what it would be like now if Hillary had won.

Pimpkin's Nephew
Pimpkin's Nephew
Reply to  David Wright
2 years ago

It’s like an energy drink, Mr Wright. 2016 told me that ‘America’ is still out there, slowly buried under mass immigration and systemic leftism, yet shooting a hand up through the soil like a zombie to grab the throat of our enemies.

MAA Shyuejinn
MAA Shyuejinn
Member
Reply to  Pimpkin's Nephew
2 years ago

So you’ve seen Carrie, too!

Dr. Mabuse
Reply to  Spud Boy
2 years ago

That’s favourite viewing in our house too! Time Magazine has a video up on YouTube of election night, and it doesn’t start off that promising: mostly a lot of set-piece “reports” played over and over. But at some point, they abandon all commentary and analysis, and just play, side-by-side, live footage of the unfolding scene in the respective campaign headquarters. It’s fascinating to watch in real time the air go out of the Clinton supporters, while the excitement starts to build among the Trump people. They even show the crowd at the Javits Center dispersing after Podesta’s speech. My favourite… Read more »

Pimpkin's Nephew
Pimpkin's Nephew
Reply to  Spud Boy
2 years ago

Splendid observation. A related one; if Hillary had just pretended – as all winning politicians must – that she “cared” about the people who were preparing to vote against her, she would have won. Her husband, Bill, a man who figured out how to win elections, “felt our pain”. Obvious bullshit, but that’s part of the game. He never said, “die, fucker!” which is what his woman, HRC, in effect did when she blew off the concerns of half the electorate by calling them ‘deplorable’. Ah, the 2016 election. Whatever darkness awaits, I’ll never forget the joy of seeing Hillary… Read more »

Teapartydoc
Member
2 years ago

Islam still did pretty well after that, but instead of taking Constantinople 200 yrs later, it might have been earlier. I’ve been reading an economic history of the middle ages, and this is mentioned as one of the factors in reopening markets in the east, facilitating the reintroduction of gold into the western European economy, which strengthened the centralization efforts of the kings vis a vis the barons, ultimately leading to the royal ability to bypass the estates by instituting direct taxation. In other words, this event had the indirect effect of helping to establish regal absolutism. One has to… Read more »

Pimpkin's Nephew
Pimpkin's Nephew
Reply to  Teapartydoc
2 years ago

There is an excellent series of lectures available from the Collège de France on the diplomatic history of the West with the Ottomans; what we learn from it is (a) the Ottomans were less interested in ‘advancing Islam’ than in consolidating and governing their haphazard empire, and (b) learning western methods in a variety of situations. Our methods failed them, because we – the ‘evil white people’ that Goerge Soros, at 87, is out to destroy – could not explain civili society to them. Fort-design and the like; yep, we have people for that. But that isn’t why you can’t… Read more »

Ursula
Ursula
2 years ago

I’m so grateful President Trump took it as a challenge when the political class dumped on him. He even said that he viewed running for the presidency as his ultimate personal challenge (I think it was an interview with Bill O’Reilly during campaign season, before he was canned due to harpies attack at Fox). I love our alpha POTUS and how he finishes what others start. Though I recall there are Trump interviews from decades ago where he touches on the possibility of running for president if certain issues weren’t corrected, like trade. And now he’s doing it, God bless… Read more »

Dan Kurt
Dan Kurt
Member
2 years ago

re: “According to people who know him, what got Trump interested in running is being disrespected by the people in the chattering classes. The political class simply ticked off the wrong guy.”

Check out some of the videos of a young Trump telegraphing his interest in the presidency on YouTube.

Dan Kurt

ChiefIlliniCake
ChiefIlliniCake
Reply to  Dan Kurt
2 years ago

If you watch those videos, what’s also fascinating is that Trump’s world-view about what ails this country has been largely the same for a few decades now. He’s also long suggested that he might have to run if nobody else was able to get it done. The odious anti-American Obama was clearly the final straw for him. So what we’ve got is a shrewd guy who has (mostly) rightly diagnosed the decades of idiocy that’s knee-capped the USA, but has also been logistically and strategically working out in his mind how to set things straight, creating an action plan, for… Read more »

Tykebomb
Tykebomb
2 years ago

Amazing what a few votes in a couple of states could do.

MtnExile
MtnExile
2 years ago

The serendipitous death of Ogedei explains a lot of things. It’s too bad that it’s not the real explanation, because it’s a great story. Ogedei DID die, of course, and right when history says he did. But Batu, the overall military leader in Europe (Ogedei was back in Mongolia), had already resolved to withdraw from Hungary before he ever heard of the Khan’s death. A combination of heavy casualties, bitter rivalries among the Mongol leaders, and a serious rebellion in the army’s rear (the Cumans, in the Caucasus) all conspired to force the Mongol withdrawal. Truth be told, the Mongols… Read more »

John Derbyshire
Reply to  MtnExile
2 years ago

Yeah, Frank McLynn pooh-poohs the Ogodei’s-death-saved-Europe legend in Ch. 17 of his fine book about the Mongols https://tinyurl.com/ybc6qrf2 “The sober truth was that by 1242 the Mongol empire was hopelessly divided by faction fighting, that civil war loomed and that anything so momentous as an invasion of Western Europe was not remotely conceivable. Batu, in short, withdrew from Europe because of manpower shortages and the looming conflict with Guyuk…” etc.

It’s a great story, though; just not a true one.

John Derbyshire
Reply to  thezman
2 years ago

Poisoned by his aunt, most likely, says McLynn. He’s fair-minded though, and allows that all these issues are murky and much debated. “From that day to this the question of why they [=the Mongol armies] turned back has exercised historians.”

Being a historian of the Mongols sounds like a lot of fun. My favorite tale about the Sack of Baghdad is that so many scrolls & volumes from the great library were tossed into the Tigris, the water of the river turned dark from all the ink. Prob. that’s not true either, but it’s a great story.

Member
Reply to  thezman
2 years ago

I’m imagining as hard as I can.

Zeroth Tollrants
Zeroth Tollrants
Reply to  thezman
2 years ago

Never heard this story, but I like the way the Mongols thought, if true.
I think we should give it a tryout, we could use alphabet agency folks as test “dummies.”

MBlanc46
MBlanc46
Reply to  John Derbyshire
2 years ago

And if I recall correctly, rolled the last Abbasid caliph, a total figurehead by that time, up in a carpet and beat him to death.

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  John Derbyshire
2 years ago

Mr. D;

Serious question: *Why* did the Mongols utterly destroy Baghdad_? They didn’t do that in China when they conquered it, IIRC. Why not keep Mesopotamia as a lucrative fief like they did China _?

I’m not saying that they did not kill a few 10’s of thousands or so in China but they kept the canals and paddy dikes, for example.

John Derbyshire
Reply to  Al from da Nort
2 years ago

The Caliph *really* vexed them.
A pretty good rule of medieval rulership was: Don’t tick off the Horde.

thud
Reply to  MtnExile
2 years ago

The mongol army suffered at mohi against a 3rd rate power. In western Europe against France,England etc in country not suitable to cavalry and with heavy fixed defences they would have been crushed.

baltbuc
baltbuc
2 years ago

Speaking of wholly unnecessary actions by the Democrats, what about the alleged Russian hack of the DNC server? That server was given to Crowdstrike, not the FBI. Therefore, it was never proven to be a Russian hack. In fact, it appears that the data was downloaded through a USB device. An inside job, in other words. Serendipity sometimes walks very close to Disaster. The Dems were willing to frame a superpower and cause a serious meltdown in diplomatic relations to cover their a**. What if this all went terribly wrong?

Ursula
Ursula
Reply to  baltbuc
2 years ago

Yes, these sick globalist progressives believe the end justifies the means as they seek to satisfy their quest for power by any means necessary. While they use their lawlessness to get ahead politically, Trump must use their lawlessness against them and prosecute the hell out of these criminals. Plenty of crimes to go after. As the criminals run out of civilized avenues to get rid of President Trump, will they move on to ways involving physical force? I pray not! Here’s where Trump’s military men come in to play, God bless them.

A.B. Prosper
A.B. Prosper
Reply to  Ursula
2 years ago

If it goes to force in scale (i.e more than a few guys security can mop up) it may be where the people come into play. The militia as noted in the 2nd amendment serves the Constitution and the Nation and a junta against a President even one that is under the guise of a false impeachment is what the militia is made to prevent That would be a very weird war in recent times but quite common historically as different factions supporters fight to put their man in power. The assumption that all peasants were down trodden and didn’t… Read more »

Rod1963
Rod1963
Reply to  Ursula
2 years ago

There will be no prosecutions until Sessions and Rosenstein are fired and they won’t be. The IG Report is a joke as long the DOJ is compromised. Please pay attention to the GOP senators, none of them are calling on Trump to fire these two felons. Oh they bloviate about another special counsel that would take 2-3 years to look into the matter. THEY DO NOT WANT a proper DOJ investigation and a cleaned up FBI. It is kabuki theater. Watch FoxNews, their main talking head – Hannity is pushing the same stalling tactic. He is no friend of the… Read more »

Ursula
Ursula
Reply to  Rod1963
2 years ago

Rod, I take your points, but if POTUS were to fire Sessions, who would he replace him with, given that Congressional committee needs to approve? I imagine a good man being appointed AG, someone not afraid to go after the cabal, but Congress refusing to confirm. Though I can hardly bear to see the stupid Mueller investigation go on and on (now more than $20 Million spent, I understand!), I can’t imagine Trump firing either Mueller or Rosenstein because it would be used against him by the media as obstruction or some such. Instead, Trump is letting the fellas hang… Read more »

Jaqship
Jaqship
Reply to  baltbuc
2 years ago

Yeah, and this frame job moved Obo to force 35 Russian diplomats from the US, within 72 hours, or else!! As if there was such a rush to get them out. To my knowledge, no nuke power’s diplomats have ever been dissed so provocatively. Unless the point was to start WWIII.

Fingol
Fingol
Reply to  baltbuc
2 years ago

I would say that they never really thought about it that far down the line. Russia has had the reputation of being a spent force for a couple of decades at this point, and while its arguably pulled itself up since then, I guess there aren’t any big events that have happened yet to make the people who still think of it as it was after the collapse of the Soviet Union. If there had been something to match Drake and the Spanish Armada for example things might be different, but as it is it just hasn’t had the reputation… Read more »

Rube Goldberg
Rube Goldberg
2 years ago

But how much has “come to light”?
I still can’t talk to anyone outside my family about this without “But the Russians! The Russians!
I go anywhere toward the MSM and it’s still “The Russians, The Russians!
When will the unholy and completely dismantled MSM fall apart? Most of the idiots out there think that the thought of “Fake News” is a Trump thing and an Alt-Right thing.

james wilson
james wilson
Reply to  Rube Goldberg
2 years ago

They are not going to fall apart, not MSM or academia or all the institutions dominated by sniveling pseudo intellectuals. Trump is an anomaly, as was Reagan, who straightened the country enough to afford two Bushes, a Clinton, Obama, and the continued corruption of every institution. There is no reason to think that the machine that has been running since 1866 is going to actually change direction. and 150 years of experience to deduce that it will not. We are grateful for the reprieve, but the “Republic” will not be changed by a vote. The vote is what changed us.

Joseph Suber
Joseph Suber
2 years ago

The missing nail for Ogedei’s horseshoe:
https://youtu.be/zeGpLg0b3DE?t=2m26s
Correspondents dinner, marked.
(did they use horseshoes?)

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Joseph Suber
2 years ago

Cold anger, right there. On Trump’s part. I am so glad Obama did that. It ended up maybe saving the Republic.

Alex
Alex
2 years ago

“A dumpy old Caligula in a muumuu…” Jesus, that is a brilliant turn of phrase. I look forward to reading your book.

Saml Adams
Saml Adams
Reply to  Alex
2 years ago

That is a keeper

Al in Georgia
Al in Georgia
Reply to  Alex
2 years ago

I initially read Cthulhu in a muumuu.

Tax Slave
Tax Slave
2 years ago

Now if we could arrange for Merkel to fall off her horse…

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  Tax Slave
2 years ago

Here’s a video of Merkel, right after a donkey kicked her in the head: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVFW0Qqc-5I

Jim from Boston
Jim from Boston
2 years ago

Being of Austrian descent, I take a bit of issue with the “no army between the Mongols and the Atlantic Ocean capable of stopping them from ravaging the rest of the continent”…

The Austrians and their allies stopped the Mongol invasion, as well as two later Ottoman invasions, at the ‘Gates of Vienna’, the natural passageway into the European heartland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasion_of_Europe
[See ‘Invasion of Austria’]

Saml Adams
Saml Adams
2 years ago

One lesson from a career in the global insurance/re-insurance business is those pesky outlier events will always surprise. So don’t get too full of yourself and keep your capital dry. liquid and flexible. Progressives just can’t seem to accept they were wrong and the quicker you correct and incorporate the new reality into your “models” the better. We had to do that with terrorism risk. It is more than just spite, it is a thought system that simply can’t incorporate and integrate new information very well. Democrats can’t process Trump. Remember Marxism trying to come to grips with a revolution… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Saml Adams
2 years ago

The assumption, laying off, and transfer of risk and of assets, in a contractual fashion, in an unpredictable and complex real world, is a fascinating subject. I think, what you are saying, is beware of the tables being toppled and the ordinary (contractual and legal) norms being discarded. Unexpected outcomes.

Saml Adams
Saml Adams
Reply to  Dutch
2 years ago

Two things. Expect the unexpected. And when things shift around you, update your thinking and adapt. Funny thing, after ’93 WTC…(which I narrowly missed being in the middle of–ditto for ’01) all the thinking went into preventing truck bombs from getting into critical locations. We never blue skied scenarios like planes as weapons. The people I did business with in the south tower who were around in 93, immediately hit the stairs when the plane hit the north–lesson they learned was get the fuck out of Dodge when things go wrong–lot of others listened to the safety director and stuck… Read more »

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  Saml Adams
2 years ago

Saml; You’re right about the truck fixation. But that wasn’t unreasonable. If explosives are your weapon you need to be able to move a large enough quantity to take out your target, And you need to get them into position fast enough before being detected so that the defenders have not enough time to act. Hence trucks. The 9/11 jihadis depended on the well-known civilian aircraft hijacking protocol at that time.* Specifically, all previous events were (loosely) under Russian/USSR control and the idea was that the hijackers were recruited as future revolutionary heroes. So they mainly wanted to go somewhere… Read more »

Dupont Circle
Dupont Circle
2 years ago

“a dumpy old Caligula in a muumuu.”

Now that’s quite good. LOL.

Christopher Chantrill
Christopher Chantrill
2 years ago

Yes. Three things the idiots did:

1. Piss off Trump.
2. Russia that made muumuu lose.
3. Dems force IG to investigate Clinton emails.

Never underestimate the importance of idiots.

jimvonyork
jimvonyork
Reply to  Christopher Chantrill
2 years ago

Q always says, these people are stupid

Sim1776
Sim1776
2 years ago

While the point about serendipity and how unforeseen events can completely change the outcome of history is fascinating in regards to current events, the Horde concept reminded me of something much more local. Yesterday a neighborhood, about a mile or so from my house, was locked down due to the killing of a policewoman. Apparently a group of fine, upstanding youths from a project in West Baltimore decided to roll out into the ‘burbs for a little free shit acquisition. 16yo Shitavious was on house arrest for 4 previous GTAs while he was 15. He was the lookout/getaway driver and… Read more »

Dan in Oz
Dan in Oz
2 years ago

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but I’m a foreigner. If the powers that be were so convinced the Hillary was a shoo in why did they go to such illegal lengths to infiltrate a campaign they saw as clownish and doomed?

Teapartydoc
Member
Reply to  Dan in Oz
2 years ago

The Nixon campaign made the same mistake in 1972. There was no need for the Watergate break-in. He won in a landslide. In his case there were rogue elements in his cabal who engaged in these activities seemingly out of hubris– they thought they could get away with anything because they always had. It was also an instance of the deep state telling on itself. Mark Felt had been passed over in choosing a new FBI director and his revenge against Nixon was to talk selectively to Wapo reporters about what had happened. Because the reporters were primarily out to… Read more »

Saml Adams
Saml Adams
Reply to  Dan in Oz
2 years ago

The Doc is spot on. Would also add that, with Hillary a “shoo-in”, likely there was a lot of virtue signaling going on among the DoJ bureaucracy. Absent the black swan of Trumps election, jumping on the bandwagon was a way of advancing your chances in the incoming administration. In the mass of Obama era sycophants it was a way to stand out. “See, Madame President, I gladly helped bury your email problem in an unmarked grave”. The game in DC is to get to a very senior level in the bureaucracy, trigger off early retirement and then trade on… Read more »

Ursula
Ursula
Reply to  Dan in Oz
2 years ago

Dan in Oz: Hillary being a shoo-in was all propaganda. In truth, she was the world’s worst candidate and dragging this old girl to the finish line required a Defcon 1 “All Hands on Deck” operation: all facets of the establishment — media, social media, Hollywood, government, institutions, intelligence community — were pulling hard for Hillary. Because of her years of service to the elite, it was Hillary’s turn to be President and by God they were going to help her achieve this, and just imagine the spoils that awaited! Per the Podesta emails published by Wikileaks, three Republicans were… Read more »

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  Dan in Oz
2 years ago

Dan; Also there was fear: Let me add to the others’ excellent explanations that the Clinton Machine was well known for playing very dirty against anyone beholden to The Swamp. At the very least, your phony, do-nothing job was at stake if you crossed them. Hillary *started* Bubba’s first term by getting kompromat on everybody possible there via the 800 or so FBI files she grabbed up. And then there’s the well rumored matter of ‘Arkancide’ wherein many people inconvenient to the Clintons were mysteriously died, were murdered or committed ‘suicide’ under dubious circumstances. I recall that this amounts to… Read more »

dearieme
dearieme
2 years ago

They’ve failed to Watergate him. Will they just Dallas him?

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  dearieme
2 years ago

Parkland High School, FL
Parkland Middle School, TX
JFK is buried in Parkland Cemetary
Brennan sends his regards