There’s an old saying about the military always preparing to fight the last war. Usually when you hear it is from a retired military guy on TV criticizing something. If only the military had listened to guys like him they would not be in whatever mess they are current in at the moment. There’s another side to it, of course. Sometimes, a nation will learn from a war they were not involved. We see that with the Russians.
Elite Russian troops are displaying a new arsenal of body armor, individual weapons, armor-piercing ammunition and collar radios — a menu of essential gear that gives them a big tactical advantage against a lesser-equipped Ukrainian army.
If President Vladimir Putin orders an invasion, the new-generation body armor, in particular, would provide exceptional protection against small arms if Russian troops go street by street to capture Kiev and other cities.
“What we saw and what was dangled in front of the West was a clear indication that Putin is on a roll,” retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Robert Scales said. “It just seems to me from watching the films that their arrows are pointing up and ours are sadly pointing down.”Weapons specialists such as Gen. Scales have been studying images of Spetsnaz, Russia’s ubiquitous special forces, and airborne troops since they conquered the Crimea region and mobilized to strike eastern Ukraine.
What they see are the fruits of a modernization plan begun in 2008, not just in tanks and vehicles but all the way down to the individual warrior. Russia now has the world’s third-highest defense budget, at over $70 billion.
“They’ve got better equipment than they had five years ago,” said Scott Traudt, an executive with Green Mountain, a Vermont gun manufacturer. “They’ve got new grenade launchers that are awesome. The helmets are better than our helmets. The body armor is better than our body armor. They’re doing a lot of things right. I’m pretty amazed at it.”
The Russians watched how American forces were able to overcome insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Superior equipment allowed for superior tactics. Instead of hunting bad guys from choppers as the Russians did in Afghanistan, the Americans could get up close and personal. Having body armor, advanced electronics and coordinated assets, the superior warrior could go right at the insurgents, without getting into a war of attrition. In Fallujah the kill ratio was 50:1.
Russian military tactics have always been a reflection of their history. The deep battle philosophy developed by the Soviets was a sort of punch-counter-punch approach to war. Big sweeping victories were not the aim. Rather, the premium was on holding territory, while putting pressure on the enemy. For a country that always looked at their people as a surplus, it made some sense. In modern mobile warfare where holding strategic assets is the key to victory, this is not a useful strategy.
Mr. Traudt is paying special attention to the body armor because it presents a big challenge to rifle and munition makers. It might be able to deflect NATO’s basic 5.56 mm rifle round. If so, Ukrainian soldiers face a daunting task because their AK-74 assault rifles fire a similar munition.
The Russians, in their new 6B43 model body armor, issued chest and back plates made of titanium and hard carbide boron ceramics.
“The stuff they have is impervious to 5.56, whereas our body armor is not completely proven against their weapons,” Gen. Scales said.Gen. Scales said the Russians carry AK-74s whose magazine is loaded with 5.45 “steel core” ammunition — a round that on April 8 the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives banned from importation because the agency deemed it armor-piercing.
Gen. Scales described the 5.45 as “extremely lethal against any kind of body armor.”
While some national leaders focus on big defense issues, Mr. Putin has taken a personal interest in one of the smallest: the rifle. Last year, his government consolidated rifle manufacturing into one new firm, the Kalashnikov Corp., named after the AK’s famous inventor, Mikhail Kalashnikov.
U.S. soldiers have complained that their main rifle and round, the M4 carbine and its 5.56, lacked lethality in Afghanistan against a Taliban enemy that does not often wear body armor. Without a shot to the head, the enemy could take several 5.56 hits and keep going, soldiers said in surveys.
“If the Russians are coming across mechanized, with airborne and infantry units wearing their body armor, it basically means the Ukrainian rifles have no ability to penetrate the body armor worn by the Russian troops, meaning you’re talking about having to shoot somebody six, seven, eight times, in the chest,” Mr. Traudt said. “They’re going to get bumped, but there’s no lethality involved.”
I think it is far to assume Ivan has been watching the Americans and learning for the last decade. Instead of rolling in tanks and blowing stuff up to intimidate the enemy, they will be looking to seize strategic assets and neutralize the enemy fighters. Given the ideological drift, the goal will not be the conquest of Ukraine, but neutralization. If they can provoke a conflict, they can seize the Russian speaking regions and then gut the Ukrainian military. That effectively ends this drama.