Modeling Failure

A suddenly popular hobby for the statistically minded is the modeling of the coronavirus pandemic that threatens to sweep the West. The statistician to the stars, William M. Briggs, has been modeling things like the utility of testing. Steve Sailer has been promoting a person blogging under the name “Arguably Wrong”, who has been modeling the cost of different containment strategies. Of course, the CDC is taking this opportunity to whip up a panic with their models.

The right word is panic, as we have hoarding of useless supplies like toilet tissue and bottled water. Starting this weekend, tens of millions of America will be sheltering in place and self-isolating over fears of the plague. Schools are closing and will remain closed for six weeks. Entertainment like sporting events and public gatherings has been canceled indefinitely. America is about to go into an unprecedented shut down of the economy and civic life based on what could happen.

That is a very important variable. The numbers thus far are trivial, in terms of infections and deaths from this virus. Italy has the highest per capita infection rate. That infection rate for Italy in the chart below means there are currently twice as many dwarfs in Italy as there are virus victims. In the United States, almost as many people have been struck by lightning this year as have contracted the virus. More people have committed suicide this year in China than have died from this virus.

Now, the experts all say these numbers will explode in the near term. Just as the flu or the common cold starts small, person to person contact causes the infected population to grow quickly. Currently, the claim is the infected population will double every five days, with no end in sight. Italy, for example, could have 200,000 cases by the end of the month, if that prediction is correct. By May a little under one third of the population would have the virus and by June everyone is infected.

This is, of course, exactly what did not happen in China. In fact, we have no reason to think this will happen at all. We have examples of prior infections, some very serious like the Spanish Flu. We even have a good sense of the infection rate from the Black Death in the middle ages. As far as we know, there has never been a virus with an infection rate like what is being predicted. Maybe this is different. Maybe modern urban life makes us unusually susceptible to a pandemic. Maybe.

Further, we don’t know as much about pandemics as the army of experts in the media would have us believe. Most of the model makers are assuming the experts on this stuff have their facts right, but there is no evidence to support that claim. For example, the Spanish Flu remains a mystery. We know the strain of H1N1 and we have some sense of where it started, but we have no idea why it ended. We know it ended long before it reached the infection rates predicted for this virus.

In the fall of 1918, 4,597 people died in Philadelphia in the week ending October 16th from the Spanish Flu. By November, deaths dropped to zero and by mid-month the flu had disappeared from the city. No one knows why. Maybe it mutated into something very mild. Maybe it simply ran out of victims. Maybe limiting social contact finally stopped the spread. No one knows. That’s an important thing to keep in mind about these predictive models. They as yet cannot predict the past.

This is something that must be plugged into any model for this virus and models for predicting potential outcomes. The models being used will all be wrong and wrong in ways no one can predict. For example, what if there really is an ethnic component to these infection rates. The part of Italy being hit with the virus has a lot of Han Chinese for all the reasons we have non-Europeans in the West. The city of Prato Italy, population 200,000, has been overrun by Han Chinese.

Could there be an ethnic element here that would explain the numbers in China, Italy, Iran and the reaction by Israel? The Chinese seem to think they are particularly vulnerable to this virus. They have been studying coronavirus for some time, because they have suffered more than any country from it. Lance Welton at VDare has been cataloging the studies on this topic. The media experts dismiss this stuff, but that’s mostly because of the fear of being called racist, which is worse than death.

The point is the models that are driving the great shutdown of the West are based on assumptions that are most likely wrong. That means the models themselves will turn out to be wrong. Modeling the wrongness may turn out to be the most important project over the next several months. Right now, the public is grudgingly giving public officials the benefit of the doubt. The people have little trust in them, so when things are not as predicted, those public officials better have answers ready.

For example, what happens if we learn that the outbreak in Italy is centered in their large Chinese community? That’s going to have an effect on public policy, because it will have an effect on public attitudes. Even if lots of actual Italians gets sick, people are going to wonder why this fact was not made clear straight away. They may also wonder why there is a Chinese community in Italy. A whole range of prior assumptions are going to come under new scrutiny with new information.

How about something simple like the great spread of the virus does not materialize over the next few weeks? Public officials will no doubt claim that the lock down was a success, but that’s like claiming the reason there are no giraffes in your garden is due to installing a garden gnome. Very few people are going to buy it and the more so-called experts push it, the more the people will reject it. The already low faith in public officials will fall even further. There will need a better answer.

It may not even take a few weeks for the public to grow both weary and skeptical of the state of emergency. A very large chunk of society thinks this is a hoax. Young people are calling it the “Boomer Remover” while taking advantage of cheap airfares. Short of more data to fuel the panic, the public could get tired of this by next week. This approach to the virus can only work with public cooperation, so public officials should assume great public resistance within the next week.

There’s also the idiot factor. The fact is, America has rounded up most of its imbeciles and put them on government payrolls. Under normal conditions, they do a limited about of harm this way. Under these conditions, they can do a lot of damage. Red Flag laws have already embolden imbeciles on the local police forces to randomly open fire on people in their homes. The staggering incompetence of public safety units must be part of any model predicting what comes next with the lock down.

That’s the thing about a public emergency. Societies are systems with lots of hard to define inputs and sub-processes. The outbreak is one input that has set off a range of other inputs, which in turn has altered the behavior of many sub-systems. These sub-systems interact with one another, so the system we see, what we call daily life, is changing in unpredictable ways. All of these linear models violate the basic rule of models in that they assume things about the world that are false.

Life in human societies does not happen sequentially. Instead it is millions of lives operating in both parallel and in series. It’s very complicated. We see that with how public officials in America have reacted to the virus. When it was a Chinese problem, public official ignored it. When it became an Italian problem, suddenly it resonated with Americans, because we are familiar with Italians. It turns out that the input value of one dead Italian is exponentially more important than one Asian.

Over the next few weeks, public officials better be ready for being wrong about all the things they have been saying. Trump’s first instinct, like most Americans, was to dismiss the alarmists. The reason is they have cried wolf so often, only a fool would believe the alarmists at this point. If this turns out to be a big to-do about nothing, we suddenly live in a world where 300 million people feel like they were taken for a ride. There will be a price to be paid for being that wrong about something this big.


For sites like this to exist, it requires people like you chipping in a few bucks a month to keep the lights on and the people fed. It turns out that you can’t live on clicks and compliments. Five bucks a month is not a lot to ask. If you don’t want to commit to a subscription, make a one time donation. Or, you can send money to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. You can also use PayPal to send a few bucks, rather than have that latte at Starbucks. Thank you for your support!


321 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
SEPA mike
SEPA mike
2 months ago

Spot on, Zman. My son (in college) says everyone he knows is pissed off about the clampdown. Spouse in healthcare field not seeing anything out of sorts. Yes a lot of people have been sick — like every year at this time. (It does seem to have been a particularly bad winter for colds, etc. in SEPA.) Count me among the “chunk” who is calling BS on this. Great post.

Tarstarkusz
Tarstarkusz
Reply to  SEPA mike
2 months ago

Where is SEPA? South Eastern PA?

SEPA mike
SEPA mike
Reply to  Tarstarkusz
2 months ago

Yes.

hokkoda
Member
Reply to  SEPA mike
2 months ago

Yep, my wife is a pediatrician, same observation. And yes. It has been a worse flu season with both influenza A and B going around plus a vaccine that is less effective than normal.

Ris_Eruwaedhiel
Ris_Eruwaedhiel
2 months ago

Picked up a few items at the local Shop-Rite this morning. There were employees directing traffic to the checkout counters. I’ve never seen that before. Plenty of food available.

Tyler, the Portly Politico
Reply to  Ris_Eruwaedhiel
2 months ago

I’m in rural SC and haven’t seen anything crazy myself, but have heard from others about shortages of toilet paper. I’m with The Z—I think this reaction is mostly overblown, but I’m more concerned today than I was even a few days ago. That said, two weeks ago I ordered a bunch of rice, beans, spaghetti, Ramen, etc. Weeks of durable dry goods for probably $30 total (yet we need food assistance because Marqueevius can’t boil his brood some eggs in the morning). I have plenty of eggs, too (just need to get some more Duke’s Mayonaisse—ooooh, baby…). After listening… Read more »

Tarstarkusz
Tarstarkusz
Reply to  Tyler, the Portly Politico
2 months ago

Marqueevius or Tamika can’t bother to feed its spawn before sending to skool. Now the social workers are all freaking out because the keeds won’t get their gibs free breakfast, lunch and to my surprise, dinner!
Of course, little DeShawn, Jerome and Quanisha all have the latest iPhone and $100 sneakers. PRIORITIES!
Public school is just another gibs program.

Tyler, the Portly Politico
Reply to  Tarstarkusz
2 months ago

Yeah, one of the concerns a bleeding heart prog on our faculty brought up re: distance learning was “what about the kids that don’t have computers or devices?” Gotta hand it to our associate head of school (a BoomerCon-ish woman who is NOT red-pilled in any form or fashion), who replied, “They all have phones.” Bingo.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Tyler, the Portly Politico
2 months ago

Distance learning, as voiced as an immediate answer to school cancellation is a farce, if you are not already set up and the course designed properly. It is simply a ploy to justify the institution keeping your tuition dollars while not providing service, i.e., instruction. On the other hand, most classes are quickly forgotten after finals, so no loss.

vxxc💂🏻‍♂️😉 Toxic masculinity vector
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Distance learning for children is a step towards breaking down the schools. Don’t conflate or confuse our schools as anything but state enforced racketeering for fat, evil women. Not to mention indoctrination and the sexual grooming of children. Ruinous property taxes. Grooming to debt slavery.

So forget the tuition; break the schools. This is a most wonderful and fortuitous event.

The Blessings of COVID be upon us all. I’m really feeling affectionate towards China now. This virus is killing globalism, Boomers, and the schools. God, we whites thank ye for COVID, an angel come to smite our enemies.

Compsci
Compsci

VXXC, no argument here. But having some involvement with such, distance learning is not as simple as having a camera record faculty lectures and rebroadcasting (yes, that’s a straw man, no one is touting that form). Students are often a lazy bunch, they don’t listen, need folks to elaborate/repeat points of lecture etc. The better courses are set up with online interaction and class aids to handle discussion and questions. In short, it’s not always as desirable as face to face classroom lecture, but it can be done far away from the source with greater groups of students. Point here… Read more »

UpYours
UpYours
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Hey, VXXC is a Chicom troll, He always praises the gutter oil nation of China.

UpYours
UpYours

Oh look, the Toxic Chinaman vector is back again, shilling for his Chicom masters.

God, we Chinamen thank ye for COVID, an angel come to smite our enemies, FTFY. Chinaman Flu is killing many whites in Europe and the US too.

Lawdog
Lawdog
Member
Reply to  Tarstarkusz
2 months ago

Marqueevirus*

Ris_Eruwaedhiel
Ris_Eruwaedhiel
Reply to  Tarstarkusz
2 months ago

Does mom and her latest baby daddy consume all the food that the EBT card purchases? Most of the underclass aren’t interested in education because they’re goals in life are to be gangbangers, rappers or welfare mammas.

Penitent Man
Penitent Man
Reply to  Ris_Eruwaedhiel
2 months ago

Ris, Naxalt, but many to most. I pick up eggs at the local walmart Market because I eat them by the case and they’re cheapest there. This gives me the birdeye view of EBT purchases. The baskets are usually full of lunchables, frozen hot pockets, sodas, frozen entrees, etc. Literally nothing that requires any cooking and is the least amount of nutritional value at the highest price. Its lazy comfort garbage food and pretty much that’s it. California has generous benefits. I know someone who fell on hard times and needed the assistance briefly. This woman was shocked how much… Read more »

Gravity Denier
Gravity Denier
Reply to  Tarstarkusz
2 months ago

Everything run by government devolves, sooner or later, into a program for (1) buying votes and/or (2) buying a sullen suspension of violence among a certain protected class.

Government has legitimate functions. If only it could be held to those.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Tyler, the Portly Politico
2 months ago

The best, most real-world meaningful classes I ever took were on-line.

ProUSA
ProUSA
Reply to  Ris_Eruwaedhiel
2 months ago

I need to wipe my a** because I’m having trouble breathing.

browsepals
browsepals
Reply to  Ris_Eruwaedhiel
2 months ago

Correct. My weekly shopping at ShopRite took 45 min to checkout b/c of the line but I was able to get everything on my list. Surprised at the half bare shelves and sense of urgency expressed by some shoppers on a sunny spring-like day. Similar to a approaching snow storm.

Carl B.
Carl B.
2 months ago

There will be a price to be paid for being that wrong about something this big.

Here Lies The Corporate Propaganda Media – Killed By The Coronavirus 4/1/2020

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  Carl B.
2 months ago

That would be the best possible outcome!

JustaProle
JustaProle
Reply to  Carl B.
2 months ago

And replaced by what? More sportsball? Too many are too dependent on the soma of the media. They don’t need to perform analysis of a subject bc a talking head told them how to think/feel/act. If this is a big nothing burger then 300 million will be irritated for all of a week, when sportsball and new dancing with the american idol starts.

Tarstarkusz
Tarstarkusz
Reply to  JustaProle
2 months ago

Who needs the Soma of the media when you have a nice big bottle of Xanax the nice Indian doctor gave you?

Stranger in a strange land
Stranger in a strange land
2 months ago

…..Public officials will no doubt claim that the lock down was a success, but that’s like claiming the reason there are no giraffes in your garden is due to installing a garden gnome. Very few people are going to buy it and the more so-called experts push it, the more the people will reject it. The already low faith in public officials will fall even further….
Spot on, although I’m having trouble calculatiing how my faith in public offcials can fall further when it’s already at absolute zero.

Elementary Penguin
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

They are not harmless fools, they are malicious fools, and deliberate ones at that. The poisonous malignant worship of Magic Jewish Statue of Liberty Poem as the highest of all values, at the expense of actual Americans, demonstrates this.

ProZNoV
ProZNoV
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

I think this would seem like a justified response if one or all of the presidential candidates came down with a fatal case of the Wuhan flu.

The lack of any prominent celebrity deaths being lamented in the news media makes it all seem unreal. Even more so not knowing any friends or family impacted by this contagion

Nicholas Digger, Sr.
Nicholas Digger, Sr.
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

From your lips to God’s ears, Z.

Severian
2 months ago

The panic ends as soon as soccer moms realize they’re stuck in the house with their kids for an extra week after spring break.

T. Morris
T. Morris
Reply to  Severian
2 months ago

Ha! Right you are, Sir! One look at the letters to the editor of the major newspapers in a state in the middle of a few “snow days” closings taken at the public schools will more than convince one of the truth of that assertion.

Member
Reply to  Severian
2 months ago

As someone who has homeschooled kids for 30 years (only now do I have a daughter in public schools, starting last year, because she was really, really adamant very about it. She’s much more of an extrovert than the other little Vizzinis were), I always find that really sad.

I enjoy my kids being home.

Severian
Reply to  Vizzini
2 months ago

Through church, I’m forced into frequent interactions with a stereotypical “Karen,” the bitchy, clump-haired, capri-wearing soccer mom who always wants to speak to your manager. When this thing first started, she really got her chance to preen and parade her superior virtue; she was almost purring like a cat. She actually said — no lie — “think of the children!!” But now that spring break has started, she has thought of the children, and there’s a small but rapidly-growing look of fear in her eyes. Yes, dingbat, closing the schools etc. also means the day cares are closed. Also all… Read more »

Member
Reply to  Severian
2 months ago

One thing modern parents get wrong is this thing of constantly trying to entertain their children. It’s impossible: their appetite for external distraction is endless. Doing stuff with them is great, but there is also nothing wrong with a little boredom. They have to learn to exercise their own minds and entertain themselves. In fact, I find the internet to be a real pain — it makes entertaining themselves too easy, and the entertainment is low effort. It’s much more productive for them to be so bored out of their skulls that they start inventing things to do. Once you… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Vizzini
2 months ago

Can you please tell that to my wife. I’m like, the kid has lots of toys and a friend coming over. Let them play. But no, they have to make complicated crafts and shit. Good lord woman just let them play with the freaking dolls.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Severian
2 months ago

Severian, wonderful prose. 🙂

Epaminondas
Member
Reply to  Severian
2 months ago

Nobel for Literature.

Member
Reply to  Vizzini
2 months ago

really, really adamant very about it

Gah. I’m coming down with Yoda Syndrome. Help me, you must!

ProUSA
ProUSA
Reply to  Vizzini
2 months ago

Yay! But your PS child will survive because of the compass that you bequeathed to her.

You might have to knock on a door or two and threaten to make an offer or two that can’t be refused, but she’ll be fine.

vxxc💂🏻‍♂️😉 Toxic masculinity vector
Reply to  Severian
2 months ago

😂😂😂🤣🤣👍👍

M. B. Lamar
M. B. Lamar
2 months ago

Great post! You are right that people will be annoyed. Alas, in Soviet America, the nomenklatura doesn’t know or care if you’re pissed. Nobody dares grumble outside of their dissident in-groups. Look at Trish Regan; on a supposedly conservative news channel, one moment of public annoyance is the end of a distinguished career. I saw a chart yesterday showing peak flu season month, 1980 through 2018. There was not one year that it went past March. This will end soon, they will all declare victory, and lurch on to the next manufactured crisis. But then, we’ve always been at war… Read more »

BTP
Member
2 months ago

One of the best things about a Z column is that it often triggers related observations. With respect to the extremely complex way in which societies work: In the old days, the critique of planned economies was exactly that real life is too complex for a central planner to get things even approximately right. The market, by contrast, and through the mechanism of mapping all of life’s complexity to a scalar price, is exactly how things get right. So far as it goes, sure. But our markets have no context. As Z has been talking about for a while now,… Read more »

tonaludatus
tonaludatus
Reply to  BTP
2 months ago

there is always an opportunity for an EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_Kalman_filter

John Smith
John Smith
Member
2 months ago

I have said the biggest killer will be the secondary and tertiary effects of mass panic. We still haven’t run into those yet so maybe the worst is yet to come.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  John Smith
2 months ago

Sounds like the brouhaha over “global warming”. One of the best and earliest critics was Bjorn Lomborg, who wrote “The Skeptical Environmentalist” and paid a dear price for it. Basically, he challenged the models with some very basic statistical knowledge and promoted using funds to ameliorate problems involved in basically unchangeable/unknowable future events involving global warming. He never challenged the fact that the earth was warming, only that one should use limited resources more wisely than attempting to change what probably is inevitable (earth’s climate). In short, he was touting an old precept, that “the cure is worse than the… Read more »

Bill Cox
Member
Reply to  John Smith
2 months ago

Wait until L’il Pookie and his boyz can’t get any Black ‘n Milds and a 40 of malt liquor at the local Iranian convenience sto’ It will be on!

Member
2 months ago

I have seen enough of rational common sense in my fellow Americans recently to give me hope (even the women).

It’s just the idiotic 20% that really worries me. In a real crisis that will come some day, I fear they will effect events in a disturbingly bad way. These types punch way above their IQ in a negative way.

Josh
Josh
2 months ago

It’s damn near the Pareto Principle. We’re at almost 17% of the population above 70, yet we’re asking 73% of the population to wholly disrupt their lives. Think about it, most above 70 are able to self isolate as they are retired and have a steady income.

We’re disrupting economies, schools, businesses, and life just for 17% of the population.

Mac
Mac
Reply to  Josh
2 months ago

Yeah, I’m not panicked, I’m pissed. Idiots are clearing the shelves of grocery stores here in my Large Northeastern Metropolis (TM). This whole thing is way overblown. Feels like an op.

The Wild Geese Howard
The Wild Geese Howard
Reply to  Mac
2 months ago

I’ve got panic buying going on here in small town northern NJ. I was at the local Shop-Rite yesterday around 8PM and packaged veggies, meat, pasta, and beans, were all gone.

This whole episode feels surreal, like a dream, or bad zombie movie. I agree there is potentially more going on than we are being told. I wonder how long that information will be surpressed?

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Josh
2 months ago

Yep, and a wise/intelligent leadership (we can hope can’t we) would be mentioning this as a primary method of reducing risk. Programs would be instituted (we have opened up unlimited funding) to promote and support oldsters in their quarantine. But no, everything proposed is created and designed for the 15 second sound bite, and the order of the day is “act concerned and run around yelling the sky is falling”. I am self quarantined somewhat myself—and that’s in a part of the country with close to zero cases. Do I go out, damn right I do—whenever I hear the location… Read more »

Ben the Layabout
Ben the Layabout
Reply to  Josh
2 months ago

If it’ll make you feel any better, the old folks are the ones most likely to “check out” during a flu-like pandemic.

Elementary Penguin
2 months ago

“They may also wonder why there is a Chinese community in Italy.”

This.

THIS IN CAPITAL LETTERS.

“When it became an Italian problem, suddenly it resonated with Americans.”

I think it was Ann Coulter who once pointed out that, when you’re watching one of those nature documentaries on the Discovery Channel, and they show a film of a reptile fighting against a mammal, (it doesn’t matter what the species is), you sort of instinctively root for the mammal, without giving much thought why.

DaDZ
DaDZ
Reply to  Elementary Penguin
2 months ago

I once posed this question (or at least a similar one) to a female acquaintance, and she replied that it was simply because the reptile was the aggressor. I pressed her to try and imagine the roles being reversed, and she admitted that she would have far left compassion for a scaly, green thing being eaten buy a cute/beautiful furry mammal, regardless of “who started it.”

Moran ya Simba
Moran ya Simba
Reply to  Elementary Penguin
2 months ago

America’s interest in Europe was b/c most Americans came from Europe. When America becomes less white, ie less European, it will also lose interest in Europe. And Europe without American help tends to be an unstable proposition. The problems of the West concern all whites, b/c Huntington’s civilizations tend to be centered on shared ethnicity.

joe
joe
Reply to  Elementary Penguin
2 months ago

“He who panics first, panics best. “- It’s a shame that so much lying out of our media has caused us to doubt every damn thing they say. -And selectively believe whatever we prefer.- Now that it’s almost too late to get respiratory protection don’t forget to wash your doorknobs every day /sarc.- (ebay still has ‘3m series 6000’ reusable dust masks, 6100 is a small… ), The prices are even close to normal (~25$) , I paid double for mine a couple weeks ago. I think they are not selling because the filters are p100 , not n95 as… Read more »

ProZNoV
ProZNoV
2 months ago

US airlines being slammed more than after 9/11. You would not believe the empty planes, and bookings have evaporated. There will be bailouts, and at least one major will go under.

Everyone loves to hate airlines, but they gainfully employ hundreds of thousands of people and provide a service that truly is miraculous.

Never seen national panic like this before. Woe be to our leaders if we’re being played.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  ProZNoV
2 months ago

Service Industries in tourist towns are already being hit. People will grow angry when they start missing income.

Rwc1963
Rwc1963
Reply to  ProZNoV
2 months ago

Well I wouldn’t fly knowing how little they clean the planes before each flight and the way they recirculate the air in the cabin to save money.

Look the crews maybe have 15 minutes to clean a entire plane – that is not enough time to do anything but a quick vacuum.

The planes are flat out filthy. The problem is most passengers are such pigs they don’t even notice or care.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

Yep, but in realville, like local towns and such, we have health authorities who check on the sanitation of facilities—particularly restaurants. How about we swab down random airliners for germs and publish the results?

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

rw;
Agree. Plain cleaning is an excellent example of the phenomenon under discussion, namely Cloud incompetence being demonstrated in real time. Major airlines put out press releases about how carefully they clean their plains in a vain effort to halt flight cancellations and, so they thought, reassure the flying public.

All that they accomplished was to call attention to how filthy their cabins actually are. Anybody that’s seen a turnaround knows that they’re lying about thorough cleaning. Made it worse, they did.

Member
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

I think there may well be some major changes in air travel. As you say, the slovenliness and lack of cleanliness in these planes is being highlighted. As well as the louts in the seats. Personally, I can do without the middle-aged females and the dancing queens who tend to be the flight attendants these days.

ProZNoV
ProZNoV
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

FWIW, I can tell you the air quality from the recirculated fans is hospital grade filtration (when the plane is in the air, anyway). That won’t do you much good if someone sneezes or coughs on you. You’re right about the cleaning though. Passengers who still insist on flying wipe down everything now with personal cleaning products. I don’t think that will last. You’d be amazed how different cities, and different nationalities, especially, tidy up after themselves. Walk off a plane that came from Japan and you won’t see a crumb. Walk off a much shorter flight from, say, Haiti,… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  ProZNoV
2 months ago

It’s almost like people from different places are different on a, shocker, biological level?

Ben the Layabout
Ben the Layabout
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

I’m not in the industry but I am a well-read educated man 🙂 Consider that most highly-contagious human diseases (excluding “third world” cases due to poor water and food sanitation) are most likely transmitted by “normal” physical contact (the dirty door knob, elevator button, etc.) and by air (sneezed droplets in aerosol, etc.) Of course this is pure speculation, but I imagine that, even if all surfaces were sterilized once a day, it might reduce disease transmission by what, half maybe?

TomA
TomA
2 months ago

“America has rounded up most of its imbeciles and put them on government payrolls.” OK, I peed myself laughing at the accuracy of that statement.

On a more serious note, as a result of living in civilized affluence for a few decades (and it’s concomitant extinction of existential threat), we now crave the opportunity to experience hardship and challenge, even if we have to invent a pandemic in order to experience it. But a fake pandemic is still preferable to a concocted sham war.

bilejones
Member
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

There’s also a substitution problem.
Protein comes in many forms, so do carbs.
Sears stopped sending out paper catalogs a while ago.

vxxc💂🏻‍♂️😉 Toxic masculinity vector
Reply to  bilejones
2 months ago

Is Toilet paper protein or carbs?

Bill Cox
Member

I don’t know but I have a recipe for it:
Brown it on one side and throw it in the pot

Penitent Man
Penitent Man
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

One of my coworkers said he “scored” on three giant packages of toilet paper and made jokes about selling us TP for exorbitant amounts when we got desperate.
Figures he has enough for at least 3 to 4 months.

Another guy asked him if he bought 3 to 4 months of food. When he said that he hadn’t the other guy asked him what he was expecting to sh*t out that would require the use of toilet paper if he wasn’t eating for a few months.

Where the hell did this TP hording thing start?

roberto
roberto
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

I’ve always made sure I have plenty of tp because my wife seems to use a lot of it. I’m not really sure exactly what she’s doing with it all, but it seems to disappear fast. I think I have 4 big costco sized jumbo packages out in the garage now. I never mind buying lots of tp because it will never go bad and we’ll always use it eventually. I imagine it won’t be any cheaper in the future either.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  roberto
2 months ago

Are you married to my wife? Between how fast we use paper towels and toliet paper.. i swear we go through at least a tree every week. What’s wrong with using cloth (for paper towels, at least)!?!

Ben the Layabout
Ben the Layabout
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

Ha! I’m ahead of the curve. Let the lumpen buy the TP. I have soap, water and a hand 🙂 I’ve enjoyed traveling around the world, and even more so that I haven’t traveled to places where the aforesaid is standard cleaning equipment. [grin]

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

I had a single roll left in the house. Bad timing for the stock-up. I don’t usually have more than a single thing of it in the closet. And Paper Towels? Are we wiping our butts with those now?

They bought all the pickles, but left all the Giardiniera… apparently they didn’t know that you can pickle more things than cucumbers?

Sandmich
Sandmich
Reply to  TomA
2 months ago

I had that thought this morning too. It’s kind of like in a totalitarian society where the powers-that-be give permission to the people to get outraged against some unrelated slight (the Chinese government letting people attack our embassy some time ago comes to mind) to distract the people from the regime’s oppression. The oppressed, excited at the chance for an outlet, become obsessed with it.

Rwc1963
Rwc1963
Reply to  TomA
2 months ago

You can find plenty of imbeciles in corporate America. Probably more on Wall Street than in D.C. considering they were the ones who pushed for globalization, intricate house of cards economies, etc. And that is ready to collapse because of a virus. And it is. The scary thing is how dependent we are on China for our medical supplies, machines and drugs. Right now there is a shortage of masks across the country. because China has kept production for themselves, Yet outside of Tucker Carlson no one gives a shit. The DR and Conservatives don’t. They think China’s death grip… Read more »

vxxc💂🏻‍♂️😉 Toxic masculinity vector
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

A great deal of the panic has to do with the supply chains from China being hit hard. Fear, Greed and Guilt are quite a combination.

Malice , Stupidity and Mens Rea;
They should put that over the gates of every Ivy League School.

Member
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

I know “conservatives” don’t care about anything but the DR certainly does. This is one of those things that should should be giving some of us ideas about how to go about re-inventing Western civilization. There are lots of people on this board and in the DR in general for instance who are very skilled in technology. How about getting people on our side together to share technical skills like 3D printing, CNC machining, electronics. From this little businesses might grow that initially just sell to our own people. This shutdown of the flow of cheap Chinese crap is a… Read more »

UpYours
UpYours
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

That is “efficiency” bro. Milton Fraudman says so, corporate profits above all else.

Murray
Murray
Reply to  TomA
2 months ago

“… we now crave the opportunity to experience hardship and challenge.” Very well put. But I think there’s more to it than that. I think a large number of people subconsciously want the whole rotten system we live in to tumble down in a great smoldering heap. Our politics are fake, our financial system is fake, the whole moral edifice of late-stage liberalism is unbearably fake and unbelievably gay. Zman has often written about the fact that we’re in a transitional period. Our old political alignments no longer describe the actual divisions between us, our governmental masters actively despise the… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Murray
2 months ago

Murray, correct, but one must remember this crap has evolved over the past 30 years. One person, even the President, will not change it in one or even two terms. Best we can hope for is delay and movement of the Overton Window on such discussion.

FashGordon
FashGordon
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

This has been going on much longer than 30 years, it’s just increased in severity lately. The groundwork was laid a century ago, things kicked into gear in the 60’s. Since then nothing but social decline in fits and spurts. Whites have an illegitimacy rate (25%) equivalent to blacks 50 years ago, while blacks are now above 80%. This didn’t happen by accident. It happened because of a long march towards our cultural conquest by a hostile tribe that began long ago.

Ben the Layabout
Ben the Layabout
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

A time will come to throw a brick through the Overton Window 🙂

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  TomA
2 months ago

This quip would be even funnier if not so true. Check out any of our large municipalities and the numbers of minorities on city payrolls. They far outnumber their representative populations in the area. That’s another reason local government fails to function efficiently.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Government Jobs are how you keep the more ‘energetic’ diversity folks occupied. In well run places, these people are put in charge of the things that aren’t important, like the dog park.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  TomA
2 months ago

I agree with Z’s description of this as ritual. It’s also cosplay, wherein people get to perform in a real time version of one of the apocalyptic zombie films that have been all the rage. On a serious note, the panic also illustrates the spiritual void that has made the West a lamb tempted to walk too close to the woods. When the Dear Leader arrives to preside over the finals days of this empire the lambs will see the wolf as their shepherd and be led into the forest. I’m agnostic but it makes me laugh when those who… Read more »

Yves Vannes
Yves Vannes
Member
2 months ago

Hey! Let’s stick a TV studio into everyone’s pocket and give them access to an entire global network. Let’s professionalize a lot of it so they have a spectrum of centralized newsfeeds that can keep them engaged, especially with things the oligarchs consider attractive enough to directed them away from things the oligarchs consider too important and dangerous for the hoi polloi to engage with. And for those members of families with connections, those members who sprouted from the shallow end of the gene pool…let’s stick them on the screen to play crier and oracle; the ones who can’t even… Read more »

Mark Stoval
Mark Stoval
2 months ago

I notice that the chart tells me that there have been 2,034 cases in the USA. How do we know that? We have not been testing people who present at the doctor’s office or at the hospital. We also would never be able to count all the people who get a few mild symptoms and don’t even go to the doctor’s office. Who counts them? I can tell you that playing with bogus numbers rarely leads to useful conclusions. Now the 46 dead is probably really true. 46! PANIC! Shut her all down boys! As a boomer who has not… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

Much will come over time as the data gets solidified and better known. But most likely after this crisis has passed. And yes, there are ways to model just how many “unknown” cases were extent in the population.

Mark Stoval
Mark Stoval
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

I think you would find this short post by Dr. Brownstein informative. He compares what South Korea did in response to what the USA did. The differences are astounding.

Coronavirus VIII: Why Does S. Korea Have Lower Death Rate Compared to US?

https://www.drbrownstein.com/coronavirus-viii:-why-does-s.-korea-have-lower-death-rate-compared-to-us/

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Mark Stoval
2 months ago

Just looked at the blog. Not impressed with the good doctor’s assertions or credentials.

Marcel
Member
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

Which is why the precautionary principle should apply, but democracy makes that impossible. We can’t really measure one of the key variables here (infection rate), and yet “something must be done”. On the other hand, it would take a hell of a lot of fash for a government to get away with “sorry about grandma, but we’re not shutting down a third of the economy”. Though I’m largely ignorant of epidemiology, as a fellow systems-thinker I contend that there’s still some value in hammering on the missing infected argument. I agree that it’s probably unfalsifiable with regards to 1918, and… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Marcel
2 months ago

But are the methods touted to fight the disease the best/only way to protect “grandma”. That is the question. Doubtful anyone would say, “tough luck” to grandma.

Marcel
Member
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Yes — my comment was colder than I am, so I’ll amend it. Despite zman’s attempt to calm the waters I still think it likely we’ll lose a half-million in the US. That means not every family will be affected, but everyone may lose an acquaintance. I would be very happy to be wrong.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Marcel
2 months ago

Possible, if we get a worse case infection/pandemic. What I was getting at was basically a recommendation that susceptible people (for deadly complications) self quarantine and the government help them however possible to accomplish that goal. This is somewhat different than everyone hunker down advice we seem to be getting. Everyone does not have the same risk—perhaps not even the same infection rate. Is one size fits all the best advice?

Marcel
Marcel
Member
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Agree 100% — told the Mrs earlier today that her aged parents need to stay home for a while — period. Leave their groceries on the doorstep. We can still go out, and even if we bring it into our house, we’re not going to die. It’s just going to suck.

If this does get worse I expect that “boomer remover” will flip over to “save the old people”. Real crisis has a way of bringing out the best in Americans — something we haven’t seen in a very long time.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Marcel
2 months ago

What on *earth* about this this makes you think that we’re going to lose 500,000 people? Given that rate China would have millions dead.

Marcel
Marcel
Member
Reply to  BadThinker
2 months ago

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Taking the 50k 2014-2015 flu deaths as a median year, and a 10x COVID-19 mortality rate in the developed world, i.e. 1% vs 0.1% for the flu, gets us to 500k.

We may get a vaccine, and this doesn’t happen. If not, is it really that hard to imagine a million Chinese dead by this time next year, particularly if they lift travel restrictions and get back to work?

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Marcel
2 months ago

If we took the “precautionary principle” as gospel we would all be preparing for the Alien Invasion.

Jay Dee
Jay Dee
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

This has been In Country for several weeks now. If it really was as virulent as they suggest……wouldn’t the lines around Emergency Rooms be as long as those around Wal-Mart and Costco? Wouldn’t those be the images you see on your local tee-vee news?

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  Mark Stoval
2 months ago

The way it’s working right now is this: patient with cold or flu symptoms goes to doc/ER/urgent care. They first get swabbed for flu and RSV (one swab to the throat, another very unpleasant swab to the back of the nasal cavity). They get those tests to rule out more common stuff. If those are negative, it gets sent out for Kung Flu testing. It’s a terrible time to be working in microbiology, but a great time if you are the producer of PCR testing. It’s a butt-load of extra work for lab personnel, in a profession that has already… Read more »

Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
Reply to  Outdoorspro
2 months ago

How many PCR machines are there in the US?
How long is the turnaround per sample?
Doesn’t Craig Ventner have a lotta machines for his sequencing project?
Could they be repurposed quickly for Covid identification?

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
2 months ago

PCR is quite common now. PCR testing for flu and strep A has become Point of Care. TAT for a flu or SAG is less than an hour. I would expect Kung Flu to be similar.

As for repurposing, the simple machines use plug and play cartridges with all the needed reagents. Just send out new carts, software update and instructions. No problem. See video below for one of the most common POC PCR machines:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGNH7NaGqiw

sirlancelot
sirlancelot
2 months ago

The local Walmart last night was rather ho-hum. We missed all the welfare queens and trailer trash that came through during the day getting their 15 seconds of fame on local TV. Of course the toilet paper, bottled water and frozen food was stripped clean. There was still plenty of rice, beans , cooking oil, fresh produce and milk. Oh and the potato chips looked like they took a pretty good hit. Almost like people were shopping for Super Bowl Sunday instead of the great pandemic 🙂 It looks like the news media has changed the word snowstorm with pandemic… Read more »

TheGreat1
TheGreat1
2 months ago

It’s just the flu bro. /s

Wow. Without a doubt this is the dumbest post you’ve made. And that is saying a lot.

Won’t be wasting my time reading your incredibly cold takes any more.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

Just a troll. But I’m glad you take a stand on such blatant trolling.

Jr55
Jr55
2 months ago

I’ve been arguing for weeks that this is a highly contagious flu with essentially the same mortality rate as the flu, therefore this is hysteria over nothing . It’s been extremely disappointing that the vast majority of the good right has been hysterical women about this – zman (until recently), lion of the blogosphere, tucker Carlson, spandrell, roosh, I could go on and on with names. Only Dennis mangan has kept a level and skeptical head about this nonsense. Really disappointing stuff overall because I expect a high degree of skepticism of the media from the people I follow: It’s… Read more »

Jr55
Jr55
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

Who deserves the benefit of the doubt, and who deserves the burden of proof in 2020 clown world? Why should we believe anything said by purported “experts” being pushed by the media to drive any narrative given how bad their accuracy has been, without demanding an extremely high level of proof (NOT models)? if you think this is moral preening, good for you I guess

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Jr55
2 months ago

Many of the “experts” are not experts in the sense they have medical expertise. Those that do often are just “useful idiots”. Decent people to be sure, but never in charge of a body politic.

In short, they recommend actions designed to minimize disease (the benefit) without ever having to compute the disruption to society (the cost). There is no political penalty for them to recommend all sorts of adverse societal consequences, nor consider the ramifications of increasing government power and suspension of civil rights.

In this manner, they become the enemy we often rail upon.

ProUSA
ProUSA
Reply to  Jr55
2 months ago

“roosh”? You mean Rush? He called it right from the beginning.

Jr55
Jr55
Reply to  ProUSA
2 months ago

No, roosh. PUA blogger turned religious Christian and political commentator. He’s gone insane over this

ProUSA
ProUSA
Reply to  Jr55
2 months ago

👍

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jr55
2 months ago

What? The Zman was adamantly saying “don’t lose your heads, let’s be adults about this.”
He took time to watch and observe.
Hysterics like the alzaebo pushed on this topic.

Stop conflating the Z-blog with Roosh, please.
Our host is not some foreign darkie with all their weird thinking and a lust for white men’s daughters.

Federalist
Federalist
2 months ago

Speaking of Steve Sailer, he’s promoting ramping up production of however many billions of masks so that every person in the U.S. can wear a new one each day for a month. I really like Sailer and I hate to criticize him but how does the Great Noticer convince himself that more than a tiny fraction of people are going to wear surgical masks everyday?

Member
Reply to  Federalist
2 months ago

There is a downside to intelligent and spergy men like Sailer and Cochran.
As good as they are in analyzing and breaking down complex issues, they do lose general awareness and miss other pertinent details and trends.

Reminds me of Newton and his bible code nonsense. Overuse and useless application of a high powered cpu.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  David_Wright
2 months ago

Most of the stuff they tell us is somewhere from partly to completely untrue. But sooner or later the earthquake hits, the asteroid strikes, and the pandemic rages. We know the odds are with us on this virus petering out on us, but it isn’t a certainty. In the meantime, look at all the things that need pulling down, that can be pulled down, in the wake of this thing. Stay reasonable about things without pounding the table, and Normie will have nowhere else to turn to for any sane take on things.

Bill_Mullins
Member
2 months ago

The right word is panic, as we have hoarding of useless supplies like toilet tissue and bottled water. {shaking head and chuckling}Fortunately the wife and bought TP at our nearby Sam’s Club (don’t know what we’d do if Sam Walton had never come along. lol) a couple of weeks back. We weren’t psychic, just running low. I carry bottled water in the car with me when I’m running Favors just because it’s less expensive than buying soda to drink during my 8 – 10 hour work days. Schools are closing and will remain closed for six weeks. This past week… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Bill_Mullins
2 months ago

I live in a desert. Bottled water is not useless—if the municipal water supply fails. I have always supplied myself with 30 days rations and a list of all the local Morman families in the area. 😉

Bill_Mullins
Member
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Compsci, first off. I never referred to bottled water as being “useless”. But in the context of the current situation hoarding it is mystifying to me. Likewise toilet tissue. I can see having a few days’ food on hand in case the stores shut down to reduce the chance of person-to-person transfer. As long as the power and water utilities continue to function all we need is food and I have sufficient food set back to feed us roughly a month. Longer than that and I will be loading the jerry cans onto the cargo carrier that fits into the… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Bill_Mullins
2 months ago

Sorry Bill, but I can only go by what I read, and I quote from your posted comment:

“… we have hoarding of useless supplies like toilet tissue and bottled water….”

It’s not a big deal. In a wet area, or by a stream, I’d rely on a simple water purification device. Hell, I carry a “purification straw” out in the desert as I can guide myself to any number of cattle watering ponds. I often bump into IA’s drinking such directly. Giardia is not pleasant, but hey it kept them alive to reach a hospital.

Bill_Mullins
Member
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

For the record, it was the ZMan who characterized supplies such as toilet tissue and bottled water as being “useless”, I merely agreed with him, you nitwit. In the context of Covid-19, hoarding bottled water is a useless act. Having supplies of potable water in a city with fresh running water is useless. Unless the utilities go down, it is useless to hoard water. In the context in which the ZMan made the statement, bottled water is USELESS. It does nothing WHAT. SO. EVER to increase one’s likelihood of survival. I stand by my original quotation because IN FEKKING CONTEXT… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

If you’ve got a hot water heater you’ve got 40-60 gallons available right now.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
2 months ago

If this turns out to be false or a deliberate hoax, we should exploit the living hell out of it. Point to the dangers of open borders, mindless “free trade” that resulted in offshoring pharmaceuticals and medical devices, and so forth. Then club the ruling class about the head with all of it.

Bill_Mullins
Member
Reply to  Jack Dobson
2 months ago

And precisely HOW might one go about “exploit[ing] the living hell out of the situation? Hell! How would you suggest we implement your advice that we “club the ruling class about the head with all of it.”? C’mon! Exactly how would we do that?

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Bill_Mullins
2 months ago

This is a war of Narratives, and the gods just handed us the biggest stick.

Reality. We were right all along.

Our rulers and their priests have lost the Mandate of Heaven. Do we represent our own?

No one on this planet can stop united White men– because we are what Heaven has been trying to achieve, across millions of years and untold experiments. WE are the Mandate.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Alzaebo
2 months ago

Yes. Linking this to the ruling class and its decadence is the key. This has started.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Bill_Mullins
2 months ago

Start pushing the narrative that China and our reliance on it caused the economic damage, and tie that to the ruling class. That’s already started and will accelerate. This is why the Left is crying racism over pointing out where the virus originated and who and what is responsible. I’m seeing this already playing out.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jack Dobson
2 months ago

Spot on, Dobson. Spot on.

M. Murcek
Member
2 months ago

Remember a book titled “Bowling Alone” that lamented the disappearance of social interaction in America? It was made out by the author to be a bad trend that we would regret. Now it’s standing orders and SOP. Times do change.

Rwc1963
Rwc1963
2 months ago

First off this isn’t the Big One and everyone knows it. By most indications the people who it kills are already old and sick. Like Grandma in the senior center or Jose in dialysis ,a a diabetic fatty or the types with COPD. If you’re not in that category you’re probably okay. That said, Trump was in bad situation. If he did nothing he’d be lynched. by various groups. If did something he’d be attacked. Now this shouldn’t have happened if China was straight up with us but refused to let the CDC in. So Trump’s people are probably 3… Read more »

Bill_Mullins
Member
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

Trump’s people are probably 3 months behind. Actually . . . they’re not. The Trump administration has been on top of the situation since last year. Don’t remember where I read it but the administration tried to brief congress on Covid-19 back in early November but (IMS) fewer than two dozen congresscritters bothered to show up. We’re only behind the power curve (and only slightly behind at that!) because of the deep-state bureaupussies at the CDC refused to allow anyone but themselves to develop testing kits and vaccines for it. The Dems weren’t interested. They were to busy and too… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Bill_Mullins
2 months ago

Trump impresses me as a very good “process” guy, who excels at figuring out how to get things done. That said, he is not a micromanager. This is the exact flip of our last president, who was not much good at figuring anything out, but did like to micromanage and boss everyone around. John Hayward has made a great point. It has been the CDC’s (“Center for Disease Control”, heh) job all along, to get us prepared and have things go well. Do they need the President to tell them that preparing for mass testing is an obvious way to… Read more »

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Bill_Mullins
2 months ago

Absolutely, Mullins. Yesterday i listened to the President I voted for. Think of this as a 1932 Bank Holiday. The regulators, bureaucrats, state and local politicians, and the Congessionals- swamp loyalists all- were delaying and obfuscating, blocking honest doctors with red tape, because they wanted in on the new gravy train and power grab. They couldn’t get a war Spring, carbon crap has gone nowhere, the natives were getting restless about child rapists both imported and elite, so they sprung a Viral Planet Emergency!! to spook the herd. Trump councilled calm at first, took his time to assemble the CEO’s,… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Bill_Mullins
2 months ago

Untrue that they didn’t ‘Allow’ anyone else to develop tests for it. Hell i just got an email from my local university hospital that they’ve developed their own test and will manage it through proper referrals (the *right* way to do testing – folks with priors get tested).

Bill_Mullins
Member
Reply to  BadThinker
2 months ago

Okay. Perhaps “allow” was not the optimum choice of words. How about instead the bureaucrats at the CDC simply refused to certify any test/vaccines/etc. for use in the U.S.? Because that is what they did. True, they couldn’t actually stop companies from developing products to address the problem of Covid-19 but they could damned sure make sure that none of those products could be sold/bought in the U.S. In a land where administrative law supersedes actual law the regulator is king.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  BadThinker
2 months ago

Bad, they must get “the proper permissions”- that’s why Susan Chu and her team in Seattle were forced into trying to track the contagion on their own in Seattle. Their efforts were declared “illegal” by the bootlickers.

ReturnOfBestGuest
ReturnOfBestGuest
2 months ago

That story about the guy shot by the cops in his sleep made me so angry.

Vegetius
Vegetius
2 months ago

I am still hoping that this will flare and then begin to burn out by mid-Spring.

But the folks in rural Cascadia, Greater Idaho, Montana and so on might want to imagine now, while snow is on the ground, how things will be during fire season if this thing is still going on.

Sandmich
Sandmich
2 months ago

Could there be an ethnic element here that would explain the numbers in China, Italy, Iran and the reaction by Israel? — This more than anything leaves me scratching my chin. They have these huge write-ups on on infection, death rates, etc. and then you turn the page to find out who is infected and who is dying and it’s blank, or maybe has some age data that’s not very revealing. It reminds me of that biker gang shoot-out in Cleveland. Someone not from the area might see that and think that there’s some white “rebels without a cause” ripping… Read more »

Dave
Dave
2 months ago

I have to admit, I was a little surprised Sailer went all in on the worst case scenarios. We will only have about 10 to 14 days from now to see if this grows exponentially, but so far, at least here in NYC, there has not been a spike in emergency room visits or hospitalizations. The virus has been floating around NYC for at least a month, and no explosive increase like Italy. Italy and Iran are real outliers, and it will be interesting to see why they dropped of a cliff while Asia stabilized. There might be a few… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Dave
2 months ago

People here are being told to stay away for emergency rooms—those are meeting places for the exchange of the disease. 🙁

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Comp; Thing to do as of now is to phone in and ask for the Triage Nurse. She’ll walk you through the screening protocol and advise you accordingly (we can hope). One ought not just show up complaining of a cough. As mentioned, you’d be put into a room full of coughing people, some of whom may even have the virus. When/if the Google, ‘Do I have COVID-19_?’ Ap is up you will/should be directed to a drive-through testing center. After that you will be advised as to future actions if you test + (and notified if you test –… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Al from da Nort
2 months ago

I agree with the recommendation to stay away from groups of sick people. Comment was on the fullness of emergency rooms. Good advice to avoid. And if I heard Trump correctly, the goal is shortly to have testing for all on demand. In any event, should I fall ill I plan to stay home and weather the storm. Hospitals have their own risks.

G Lordon Giddy
G Lordon Giddy
2 months ago

Very good essay yet again. My gut tells me this is nothing like the “experts” tell us. It’s going to be one big dud.
But this dud unlike Kavanaugh hearings, the Russian hoax, and the Ukraine nut job hearings will get Americans attention about just how far gone we are. Being led by hysterical people is very damaging to civilization.
The wild card is the oil markets in my opinion the banksters are in trouble. They are printing money and debt like a cat lady bought toilet paper this week.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  G Lordon Giddy
2 months ago

Some whitepill: the oil glut- brought by those awful overleveraged shale drillers enabled by zero-interest rates- means we have quite a stockpile of energy to see us through a slowdown.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Alzaebo
2 months ago

The good news about all that leverage is that the capital equipment still exists. The first guys go bankrupt and the finance guys lose, but someone can come in and buy up the equipment for a song and get it going without all that debt.

Tarstarkusz
Tarstarkusz
2 months ago

Here’s a big old white pill to choke on… Whenever there is a major blizzard, there is a minor baby boom 9 months later. People locked in the house for a couple of weeks can pass a lot of time doing the nasties. Who knows, maybe Dec 2020 and January 2021 will have record white births. I just hope the shutdown causes some of the brown horde to go back home.

3g4me
3g4me
2 months ago

Thank you for being a voice of sanity and reason amidst all the hysteria. Yeah, if it’s your elderly whatever that dies, too bad so sad. Seriously – my mother is 90, and even if I were close to her (which I am not), she’s lived a long and full life. Instead of being considered a natural part of the life cycle, dying has come to be seen as this terrifying and horrible thing for anyone, ever. Get a grip, people! We aren’t meant to live forever! I really don’t need much in particular, but plan to stop by the… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  3g4me
2 months ago

It is difficult to judge the value of life to anyone other than one’s self. Indeed, if I were to murder your mother, the courts would not accept my argument “that she was old and had a good life” as a mitigating circumstance in my sentencing. Dying comes to us all, but not all of us contemplate an end of life while gasping for breath like a fish out of water—which is what awaits should the end come from lung infection due to COVID-19. I’ve seen such. It’s a horror. In that thought, she and others can and should promote… Read more »

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

I’m not clear on precisely what “right” you are referring to – the presumed right to ‘x’ quantity of medical care? The presumed ‘right’ not to suffer or die? I am not wishing a painful or prolonged death on anyone, but I am decrying this obscene “war on death” we appear to be fighting. And for you to compare that to murder is straw manning in the extreme.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  3g4me
2 months ago

What I am attempting to say is that a war on an epidemic disease is not the same as a war, or denial, of inevitable death. It is quite possible for one to come to terms with their inevitable mortality yet still request that reasonable attempts to combat epidemic disease be attempted in their behalf. We seem, as does Z-man, to presume that those heinous Boomers are again at work promoting dastardly selfishness in combating a disease simply because they (arguably) would most benefit from such. This is the sort of “blood libel” that runs through most all Boomer critiques,… Read more »

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  3g4me
2 months ago

Hard questions, both.
See, kids? This is the adults talking.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

I read the interview of the 40-ish guy who was saved by medical intervention. His description is terrifying, of his essentially being on the edge of asphyxiation for an extended period of time.

Chad Hayden
Chad Hayden
Reply to  Dutch
2 months ago

Link? @dutch

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Chad Hayden
2 months ago

March 10th, Wall Street Journal (it’s paywalled). Marc Thibault, age 48, from Rhode Island, led a school group to Italy. He was in good health but had asthma. His flu turned to pneumonia (that’s the dangerous part of the deal). He speaks of feeling asphyxiated for days on end, as the nurses had to clear his throat of fluids every two hours for him to survive. He is doing better now. Skilled hospital care is the key for cases like his.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Women (fertile/young) and Children First was the mantra of European Civilization for thousands of years. The fact we don’t immediately recognize that as true anymore is a big problem (probably related to the ‘boomers’ starting to realize that they are, in fact, going to die).

Nicholas Digger, Sr.
Nicholas Digger, Sr.
2 months ago

This nonsense is the perfect example of FDR’s famous quote: “There’s nothing to fear but fear itself.” I hadn’t really given it much consideration, until now.

Member
Reply to  Nicholas Digger, Sr.
2 months ago

That old WASP commie did say a few good things. This is my take on this thing. I’m more shocked and horrified about what it shows about how mentally fragile people have become than by the virus. I’m saying this as someone who is actually quite sick right now too. I have a bad case of… something. It’s probably flu but my wife did return recently from a trip to NYC that had her going through such filth buckets as the subway and JFK airport. Maybe I have the dreaded virus. There’s nothing much I can do to find out… Read more »

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  pozymandias
2 months ago

May all the gods bless you and keep you, pozymandias, you are a rock.

Thurgood
Thurgood
2 months ago

One sees little evidence that any price has ever been paid for state alarm being misused by the managerial class. Indeed the great flummox of 2016, from those who believed in the legitimacy of Trump-the-Outsider, was that comeuppance materialized for nobody of any significance. Not even token patsies walked the plank for much worse than closing schools for a period of some weeks. So while it is obvious to the sober minded that virus hysteria is yet-another sign of delusion and opportunism by the administration’s enemies; One must truly wonder why the chief executive of the empire allows such things… Read more »

Jr55
Jr55
Reply to  Thurgood
2 months ago

“One must truly wonder why the chief executive of the empire allows such things to go on.” He was boxed into a corner. Trump’s instincts are correct that this is a fraud virus (ie mortality rate of the flu with higher contagiousness), but to dismiss it as such gives ammunition to his enemies that he isn’t doing enough to combat the “pandemic” and then for the left wing Jews in corporate America to crash the market to punish him for not “doing enough”. Most of the right, including the dissident right, fed into the panic because they don’t have experience… Read more »

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Jr55
2 months ago

“This is simply the next fraud after impeachment to try to keep trump’s polling down before the election.” Right, and it won’t be the last before November. Trump is still quite likely to win re-election, and it will be interesting to see the effect that has on the ruling class and their Deep State mandarins. My guess is all but the dead-enders will retreat into their shells. Again, though, this is a golden opportunity to exploit. While the machinations behind the failed coup are hard to explain, a health panic that was ginned up by fraud is going to be… Read more »

Thurgood
Thurgood
Reply to  Jr55
2 months ago

Most of the media and dissident right know this is a hysteria moment. As I’ve said before, everyone running with the pandemic narrative is doing so because it is politically opportune. Impeachment was not a comparable issue because it didn’t change anyone’s mind and broke down on predictable partisan lines. The “pandemic,” meme is the first big issue where the neoliberal media is enjoying flanking support from dissidents. Trump has a lot more enemies now than in 2016, thanks in large part to his DOJ. Letting all left-wing terrorists walk, pardoning obvious scum like Rubashkin and Blagojevich, and aggressively rounding… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Jr55
2 months ago

So far we we don’t have enough evidence that it’s even as bad as the flu. All we have are (terrible) epidemiological models that predict doom and gloom (which gets the folks that make the models attention).

Jay Dee
Jay Dee
2 months ago

Perhaps this will become a great moment for the Dissidency

ConservativeFred
ConservativeFred
Reply to  Jay Dee
2 months ago

Most of the Dissidency seems to be losing its mind with the rest of the crowd. This is unfortunate, because rational conversation had been a hallmark of the Dissident movement.

Dave
Dave
Reply to  ConservativeFred
2 months ago

Correct. This has been a mini wake up call in and of itself. Not only Sailer, but many of the DR have gone all in on the panic, buying into the worst case scenarios without question. Lion of the Blogosphere is inconsolable.
Not a good look to realize some of those you thought so highly of are hysterical bedwetters and pants shitters.
Good grief.

JR52
JR52
Reply to  Dave
2 months ago

“Not a good look to realize some of those you thought so highly of are hysterical bedwetters and pants shitters.”

this is lol

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Dave
2 months ago

‘Half Sigma’ (aka ‘Lion of the Blogosphere’) always struck me as a bit off the rails, though his ‘why a career in computer programming sucks’ is still a masterpiece.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  ConservativeFred
2 months ago

Gatekeepers. Smug, sniffy gatekeepers.
Bah, humbug.

JR52
JR52
Reply to  Jay Dee
2 months ago

It’s not, even though its a media created scam 90% of the dissident right fell for it. Hearing “PANDEMIC VIRUS!!!” short circuited their reasoning abilities which was very surprising to me. I’ve lost a lot of respect for a lot of people the past couple weeks.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  JR52
2 months ago

Everything is fine. No, really.

Brainstorming is for suckers.
We really, really smart people have this all figured out. Just ask us!

Rwc1963
Rwc1963
Reply to  Jay Dee
2 months ago

“Our Thng” has had years to recruit more members and continues to screw up. The DR is a mostly vaporware. They can’t even hold a bake sale for the most part. No recruiting literature, no nothing to get people on board and focused. Their so-called leaders hate anyone who goes after the Conservative Inc like Nick Fuentes. When someone like Jordan Peterson comes around they are baffled and get insanely jealous that this guy can steal our thunder. Well those crybabies need to HTFU. Peterson addressed a need the DR ignored and continues to. The DR is not ready to… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Rwc1963
2 months ago

To be fair, Peterson is basically just a guy that ‘sounds smart’, but when you dig in you don’t find much (I bought his Maps of Meaning book. It’s 95% gobbledegook). He had a few good common sense things to say, but those are all things your grandfather (or great grandfather) could have told you. And some on the DR are saying it (like Mr. Z man here). Fuentes and Casey are doing God’s work with younger folks. I’d love to do something that us early millenals / late Xers could do without seeing our families (many of us have… Read more »

Mossy
Member
Reply to  BadThinker
2 months ago

THIS. “I’d love to do something that us early millenals / late Xers could do without seeing our families (many of us have small children) destroyed by doxxing… I know, unwilling to take risks…”
BT, let’s start with an outline of the DR mental on-ramp. I need some best practices in many areas, like conversational tests (gauge awareness, state of pilling, possible teammate), in person organization, lifestyle decisions (actually working for the DR movement covertly), etc…. Braindump.

ProUSA
ProUSA
2 months ago

There will indeed be a big price to pay for the economic losses, to say the least. On the other hand, it’ll probably die like the Epstein mystery, the Barr-Durham investigations, and the Schumer censure. All of those events just go into a big freaking black hole and get covered up.

Jim
Jim
2 months ago

The clampdown is to stop hospitals from being overrun. America spends the treasure in its coffers on Israel and Jewish passion projects (black scholarships, Mexican housing, Asian education). It has the bed capacity of a small, 2nd world Eastern European Country (like Croatia), at 900,000 hospital beds. It has the 3rd largest population in the world. This is going to be a bloodbath on the healthcare system side. By stopping spread now, we give time to update our current model (which is a Shylock Casino model) into what I call the Vintage Americana model (I.e. no more paperwork, hotels being… Read more »

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Jim;
The critical shortage, if there is one, is likely to be ventilators, not beds.

So far as I know from the stats presented, ‘only’ ~20% of those infected are serious cases. But, most of those require extended hospitalization *on a ventilator*. Adding a basic bed is pretty easy. Cots, as you say, could do in a pinch: Ventilators, not so much.

As important is the staff to run them. Having the medical staff out sick, even though they recover later, is also a bottleneck.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Al from da Nort
2 months ago

Bed is my shorthand term for the required suite to deal with a patient for the medically illiterate. This suite includes intubation tubes of different diameters and their respective bougies, trained ED personnel who can intubate, macs, millers, Philips Vents and dumb vents, BiPaps, pulse oxes, negative pressure installations, cannulas, O2 tanks and wall spigots, RRT teams, nebulizers, ICU telemetry units, pressors, fentanyl and other palliative breathing treatments and the critical care doctors who can administer them, nurses who can do Q checks on clinical signs of adequate respiration, and IV teams and ABG meters. Yes I am aware they… Read more »

Nicholas Digger, Sr.
Nicholas Digger, Sr.
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

A woman named Jim?

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Nicholas Digger, Sr.
2 months ago

A Nigger named Nick Digger?

Nicholas Digger, Sr.
Nicholas Digger, Sr.
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

It’ll be okay, sweetheart. It isn’t the ease with which you use fancy and irrelevant medical terms that betrayed you; it’s the typical effeminate hysterics in your numbers.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Nicholas Digger, Sr.
2 months ago

I’m so sorry sweetheart, it’s not your snark that betrayed you as a Jewish woman, it’s your teleological arguments and unironic use of the Oxford comma.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Nicholas Digger, Sr.
2 months ago

are you suggesting women use fancy terms? In my experience women know less fancy terms and are less articulate than men, because they do not have the verbolinguistic IQ of men. Maybe as a woman you believe women to be fancy. I am under the impression that they are menstruating and capricious with low verbal aptitude. I guess your vagina biases you.

Fluella De Vil
Fluella De Vil
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Now, now, no need to bring women into your tiff.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Jim, please don’t call Al something like that.
Unbecoming, and undeserved.

Impressive, but if you’d kindly retract the “s. d.” part, I’d really appreciate it.

Gentlemen should act like it- as d’North does, abundantly.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Alzaebo
2 months ago

I can’t retract it as it won’t let me edit this.

I verbally retract my statement in the following way:

Dear Al From The North,

I am sorry. Have a beer, walk it off.

Sincerely,
Jim

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

You go have the beer. Thanks for your reply.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Jim, I addressed the bed controversy yesterday. I’ll reiterate. The statistic you brought up is meaningless. If beds equals some sort of proxy for effectiveness of the medical system, then we must be the healthiest society out there since we need so few beds. We are not, if anything we use more health care. Rather, we use our expensive hospitals to their most effective (and cheapest) ends. We treat, stabilize, then send folk to lessor facilities that specialize in whatever after care is needed. Case in point. I have a friend who has lived 6 years with lung cancer via… Read more »

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

You are both wrong because you are misinterpreting the term “bed” and don’t understand the terms you are using. Google “hospice” and learn what it means. 90% of hospice care in America is provided to patients In their own homes. Hospice is a philosophy of care whereby you have bedside nursing and limited means of basic care (such as 02 masks and IVs) administered primarily by nurses. Most hospice and specialized nursing facilities are not capable of providing adequate care for a person in respiratory distress or respiratory failure. The patients in t be hospital will be textbook: they will… Read more »

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Also I just read your silly example of your unfortunate friend. Terminal patients are not treated the same way as somebody who has an acute and presumably resolvable problem. Hospice and rehab are offered as a pathway to comfort care in terminal patients.

Again, a totally different case from a person acutely coding from clogged lungs due to a passing infection.

Medically different, philosophically different.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

But that’s not how you initially described our current situation. You simply compared Croatian number of beds to US number of beds as “proof” of our lacking facilities and I assume imply the better preparation of Croatia to meet such contingencies. Utter nonsense. Bed count is not related to therapeutic ability or treatment options, and you were called on such. We have more ability to handle the current pandemic than any country in the world. It may not be to your satisfaction, but it is better than all others. And is getting better as the disease spreads.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Per our resources we are incredibly unprepared, because we do not have enough VENT CAPABLE, PHYSICIAN STAFFED, NEGATIVE PRESSURE, ICU CONVERTIBLE HOSPITAL BEDS. I do not give one single FUCK about how many Sleepy’s mattresses, mahogany wood frames, hammocks, rehab, SNF, hospice or personal beds exist in the US versus Croatia. I am merely saying that our health care system is NOT DESIGNED for true medical emergencies because of our pay to play system which has woefully underprepared institutional hospital medicine for mass casualty and hospitalized patients. We lag because we invest in hospital lobby design and marketing and sensitivity… Read more »

Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

and the alternative to “pay to play” is what??
Are you advocating socialized medicine, NHS, or something similar? Because you don’t like the lobby design??

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
2 months ago

Pay to play has many connotations beyond how healthcare is subsidized. It also includes how powerful interests fund organizations which dictate the priorities of American healthcare (AMA, Pfizer, AZ) and these dictums change hospital design. The argument over healthcare economics is boring and pointless. As long as the same power structure is in place, American whites will pay exorbitant fees and Mexicans and blacks will get free healthcare. Getting your panties in a bunch to defend capitalism or socialism vis a vis health coverage is equally moot and misinformed. The problem is deeper than how we lay, but who funds… Read more »

Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

aaahh, so sorry. i misunderstood what you meant by “pay to play”. it seems you mean lobbying efforts by big swingin dix, to get public policy in their favor. “powerful interests fund organizations which dictate the priorities of American healthcare” the big players do have the right (in my view) to try to influence policy, but gov’ts and other agencies also have the right (nay, the ~obligation~ ) to ignore their pleadings, when it diminishes the rights of ordinary people. i would be interested to hear your views on what should be done with policy. changing the “power structure” is… Read more »

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
2 months ago

It’s simple. Listen to the gray haired warm hearted sharp as a tack Christian doctors of America and tell the silly hat wearing lobbyists and their third world stooges to beat it when it comes to policy.

Then make everything ancap so the goddamn economics-fags will shut up. Not even because ancap works. Nothing works.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Compsci, to be fair, Jim sounds like a medical professional who has had to deal with “corporate medicine” for a long time.

Easily triggered. Built up frustration.
Understandable, seeing how tight a lid providers have to keep on many outrages.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Jim, dealing with elderly family members in a variety of care environments in recent years, and watching how everything functions in the various types of facilities, my sense is that what you are talking about, as to facilities, equipment availability, and medical skill sets is all true. I think the big unknown is whether the case load of the seriously afflicted, who will need ventilators, skilled and talented practitioners, and constant monitoring and adjustment of treatments, will arrive in sequence, meaning that the resources available can treat them in turn, or instead simultaneously, in which there is little that can… Read more »

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Dutch
2 months ago

A very reasonable post and reminder that uncertainty dogs us like men chase tail.

I am in total agreement. I believe the premise of the clampdown is precisely to prevent a wave of sick to the hospitals.

More medieval distancing and quarantine the more capable our Kosher system will be at handling it.

Our medical system is too kosher, and hopefully after this it will be a little more cowboy.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Jim, you are the one that cites Croatia. A ridiculous comparison. No more needs to be said wrt to your understanding and credibility. At least I cite what I can verify as an illustration of a point. You just spread panic.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Patients need a hospital in case they need a cardiologist for cardiomyopathy and myocarditis from the virus, endocrine for their high rates of diabetes and how that complicates all treatments, surgeons in case they need chest tubes and pleurocentesis, imaging for lung assessment IE CT and XR. How are you such a faggot and fail to understand that a hospice or medical tent cannot provide this. How does the Army do it then? They don’t. People who get sick in combat get terrible outcomes and treatment. People with salvageable limbs routinely lose them because they can’t ship them back to… Read more »

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Do you understand what makes a hospital different from an outpatient clinic? Let alone all of the other services that you don’t understand? Do you even know why a hospital exists?

roberto
roberto
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Hospitals exist to provide nursing care.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  roberto
2 months ago

Lol, and everyone else is just a musty old fart who sits around and does nothing while the BadAss nurses diagnose the patients and treat them, almost like a cool Dr House, except maybe like House RN! Yah! And RRTs are basically just techs…PFFFT all they do is duonebs and fuck around with the PEEP and TV! Lol, any RN can do that. PFFFT. Also, nurses can read CTs, no problem!

Did you know nurses can do root canals too? Dentists are just overpaid assholes.

Deana
Deana
Reply to  Compsci
2 months ago

Compsci – What Jim is saying wrt the various equipment and personnel that are needed to manage the types of patients that Italy is struggling with is accurate. We have no idea at this moment if the distribution of patients we will have will be consistent with the distribution of patients Italy has seen (meaning percentage of patients who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and need no hospitalization vs patients who need hospitalization for symptom management and respiratory support which can range from a little oxygen to full vent support and everything in between). But if our numbers are consistent… Read more »

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Deana
2 months ago

My apologies Deana, I was nasty. I am truly sorry to you and all of the sweet hearted, logical Christian women who visit this site, (unlike to Al From The North who I wasn’t really that apologetic about). I should not have laid in so deep with the words I said. The guy called me a woman, I felt triggered. I’m sorry. Thems was fighting words and eveb though I do speak so harshly in front of my girlfriend and female companions, those that tolerate me knows it is in jest and that I love women and I value women… Read more »

Deana
Deana
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

Jim you are batting a 1000 here. I’m a critical care nurse at a major trauma center. Trying hard not to, what are your words?, kill my patients. 😉 It’s ok. I don’t comment often here. I realize it is mostly men here and frankly I think things would be better off if we still had places that were men only. But I love the discussions so I frequent Zman. Men just speak more roughly than I’m often comfortable with. As for the ICUs – yes. I’m worried. I’ve been a little shocked at how few ppl at the hospital… Read more »

roberto
roberto
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

I’m curious what your medical background is ? A lot of what you say is correct but what is glaringly incorrect is who you assume manages ICU patients. ICU nurses are who manages ICU patients. Doctors answer management questions that arise and sign orders. RTs are little more than vent techs and administer breathing treatments. It’s nurses who care for ICU patients

Jim
Jim
Reply to  roberto
2 months ago

My background is that I met your mother in a smoky bar on a Saturday night.

Nurses kill patients without Doctors watching from afar. Don’t be so cocky. Oversedation when patients get rowdy, no understanding of complicated pharmacology, poor knowledge of pathophysiology squarely place nurses as the subordinate of doctors and for good reason.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Jim
2 months ago

“Doctors answer management questions that arise”

Please, your killing me with the jokes. Didn’t think I’d be dying from jokes, thought the virus would take me.

Are you serious?

Management questions?

You mean how the fuck to diagnose and treat a problem from start to finish?

Yeah, okay bud.

ConservativeFred
ConservativeFred
2 months ago

I have lost of a lot of respect for other dissident bloggers (some with links on the Zman’s homepage) that are mindlessly repeating infection rates and mortality rates without considering any other variables, such as, population density, ethnicity, testing facilities, individual health, age, etc., and etc. Raise these objections and you are an idiot because it’s the end of the world!

It’s not exclusively government and politicians that will see a backlash if this is a nothingburger.

ConservativeFred
ConservativeFred
Reply to  thezman
2 months ago

“Boomer Mortality Fear” of “BMF” may be the primary driver, but I also get the feeling that some significant minority want Mad Max. That troubles me.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  ConservativeFred
2 months ago

They want the cosplay of Mad Max, not the real thing. They are getting to appear in “The Walking Dead,” for gosh’s sake!

Agreed about those in the Dissident Right who have bought into this hoax. Trump realizes it’s an op but is constrained in what he can say or do about it, at least for now. The aftermath of this fraud will force the people who fanned the flames of panic to explain themselves…at least to those who didn’t particularly want a bit part in a zombie flick. That will be the fun part.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jack Dobson
2 months ago

“Don’t ask questions! It’s still Morning in America!”

“Trump realizes it’s an op but is constrained”
Now that is 100% on point. Very well said.

Hysterics like myself panic, know why?

Because, think- think for just a tiny little bit, a mere treacle of over-capacitied brain power-think of what the ability to pull such an op means. Of what has been done, and is intended.

Of what “they” are still yet capable of.

Cosplay would be the rehearsal before the show. You’re darn tootin’ some would like a big show.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Alzaebo
2 months ago

Spot on. Those who ran this op literally will do anything, and killing us all would be a routine day at the office for them.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Jack Dobson
2 months ago

Thanks, Mr. Dobson, we are in accord, we are of one mind.

We are monkeys who want to be on tv, aren’t we? You are a blessed balm, a relief.

Dave
Dave
Reply to  ConservativeFred
2 months ago

They think they want Mad Max, but once the real thing bites them in the ass, they’ll change their tune fast, at which point it will be too late. I lived in NYC during the Koch/Dinkins years, and most soft, middle Americans ain’t ready for that kinda zoo. Also, the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. No power, not even cell phones. Dinner by candle light in your cold apartment. Total darkness on the streets. Police can’t be contacted, and only made one pass on each street in their cars every few hours. I heard gunshots every night until power was restored.… Read more »

Mac
Mac
Reply to  Dave
2 months ago

I remember all that too.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Dave
2 months ago

Reality tends to focus the mind. The most based Boomers I know were bused to schools in the Seventies where vibrants were numerous. Those people don’t get the tingly feelz about blacks and Hispanics.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Dave
2 months ago

Ooks. Dave, I stand a bit corrected.
A tad. Serco, the Balkan survivalist, isn’t my idea of a successful outcome.

Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
Nunnya Bidnez, jr.
Reply to  Dave
2 months ago

re: Hurricane Sandy-
my friend in Staten Island spent the night on the roof of her house; i called FDNY (not thru 911 — i had phone number direct to the station house) they couldn’t drive their trucks thru 13 feet deep water to get to her; besides there were hundreds of other people in her neighborhood in the same position. Spent the next day w/600 others in the high school gym. Sometimes nothing can be done until conditions improve.

If you liked eddie and dinksie , you’ll love warren wilhelm.

Forever Templar
Forever Templar
Reply to  ConservativeFred
2 months ago

“That troubles me.”

It really shouldn’t. These people share a perverse commonality with your rulers in that they don’t care about a suitable outcome for you or yours. But yeah, the collapse bros have been having a field day with Covid.

SEPA mike
SEPA mike
Reply to  ConservativeFred
2 months ago

Big agreement here — some well-known podcasters, too who seem to have suddenly become quite credulous when it comes to this issue. As if standardized, reliable testing exists and is being uniformly applied across different countries, whose authorities are doing so and counting and reporting the numbers they find accurately and honestly. As if cause of death is accurately and truthfully assigned in all cases. And etc., etc.

ConservativeFred
ConservativeFred
Reply to  SEPA mike
2 months ago

Yes. I would love to see see accurate counting and reliable testing, but I would settle for a glimpse of the raw data.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  SEPA mike
2 months ago

Part of the problem is there’s no such thing as ‘accurate counting’. Medical data was and *always has been* very poor quality, for the simple reason that disease is incredibly complex and *everybody* presents and reacts differently. We live in a world of complexity, and our brains are designed to filter it all out and simplify as best we can. Oversimplificaiton leads directly to over-certainty.

Member
Reply to  ConservativeFred
2 months ago

I’ll name names. Steve Sailer has totally gone around the bend. He must be putting up at least two hysterical “We’re all gonna’ die” posts an hour over at VDare. He always likes to claim he’s a numbers guy, but I’m really starting to wonder if he’s all that good of one. For that matter too, the Derb has always had a bizarre obsession with pandemics. If you read his back catalogue, you’ll see him always making the claim that the Black Death is waiting in the wings to kill us all off at any moment. Maybe germaphobia is a… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  RDittmar
2 months ago

Everybody has that “thing” that gets them all up and bothered. For some, it is disease. Interesting that Trump, a germophobe who has been exposed to the virus, is taking very rational positions on this thing. Control of the emotions. He says he has been tested and the results will be known in two or three days. My understanding is that results are very fast, but there are a lot of false positives, and the appropriate response to a positive test result is to wait a couple of days and test again. Hmmm. A positive test result for the President… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Dutch
2 months ago

And the test comes negative, cross that potential crisis off the list, that’s good all around.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  RDittmar
2 months ago

Dittmar, what will it take to clean the swamp?

If they get to whip up the masses, then we get to whip up the masses.

Member
Reply to  Alzaebo
2 months ago

I think it’s a terrible, terrible idea for VDare in particular to blow this all out of proportion. They can make the most common sense point ever about illegal immigration – that throwing the borders completely open to whosoever wants to walk across exposes us to all sorts of diseases. There were some stories in the new not too long ago that polio was being seen in the U.S. again because of open borders. If Sailer keeps sh**ing his pants over Coronavirus however and nothing really happens, then a lot of people can reasonably conclude that open borders are no… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  RDittmar
2 months ago

I’ve always questioned his math, mostly because he uses a lot of (in my opinion) poor statistical methods (substituting probability with relative frequency, to start with). I’m not saying that the general DR ideas around things like intelligence are wrong, but that the over-quantification can quickly lead to jumping way out to conclusions that aren’t supported by the evidence.

Member
Reply to  BadThinker
2 months ago

I don’t want to be too hard on him. I think he’s a former marketing analytics guy and I know some of them and a lot of them know their statistics pretty well. He’s just gotten way way way over his skies about this Coronavirus though and he’s going to end up falling hard on his face.

Altitude Zero
Altitude Zero
2 months ago

I respectfully disagree with this take. The cold-hearted bastards who run China didn’t shut down their entire economy and lose face before the world for nothing. Those ICU’s in Italy aren’t filling up with mirages. Yeah, maybe it will turn out to be nothing – I sincerely hope so. Yes, the Media/Industrial Complex is full of sh*t. But even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and if the cost of avoiding an (admittedly unlikely) potential outcome where several million Americans die is a few useless (or worse than useless) universities closing and a few months without sportsball, it’s… Read more »

ConservativeFred
ConservativeFred
Reply to  Altitude Zero
2 months ago

“Just listening to the lefties scream at the loss of their beloved trips to Europe and hearing Trump say “Chinese Virus” is well worth a few days of working from home.”

That made me laugh. It’s a good attitude to have while working from home for the next few weeks.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  ConservativeFred
2 months ago

I just went 10 weeks without a paycheck, because I could, but I fear for all my bros who can’t.

JR52
JR52
Reply to  Altitude Zero
2 months ago

We think of the Chinese govt as some sort of borg that always does everything for a reason, but it is just as capable of freaking out and doing stupid shit as any other government. Chinese govt officials are social media addicts like everyone and it makes them retarded in similar ways, so they run out and weld people into their homes. That same dumb panic won’t lead to the same thing happening in the US, but it will fuck up our economy and be just as absurd. especially if you’re under 50, the virus is literally nothing. but the… Read more »

Altitude Zero
Altitude Zero
Reply to  JR52
2 months ago

As I said, I honestly hope that you guys are right. You may very well be. But remember, three weeks ago, the dingbats of the liberal media were saying that this was all racism, and would amount to nothing. The leftist media isn’t even useful as a compass pointing south. If this does turn out to be nothing, they will be screaming that Trump over-reacted and did too much. Don’t take your cues from them, even in a negative way.

JR52
JR52
Reply to  Altitude Zero
2 months ago

The problem is that Trump rested the legitimacy of his presidency on the performance of the stock market (instead of on putting libs on trains as I was hoping he would). Because of this early and repeated miscalculation, if the stock market continues to go down before the election, he loses, and we end up with shitlib lunacy in power and all that it brings. I would have been happy for him to argue “Coronavirus is what happens when we have open borders, we need to close borders and build the wall and deport illegals”, but that of course would… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Altitude Zero
2 months ago

Nobody panics like Asians, especially Chinese, panic. I fear for the population of exotic creature that ‘Traditional Chinese Medicine’ has identified as protective of this terrible aliment.

ProUSA
ProUSA
2 months ago

And right on cue, DeBlasio wants to “Nationalize” the health sector so as to not rely on China for health care products.

He should have voted for Trump, our clairvoyant.

King Tut
King Tut
2 months ago

We won’t really know how dangerous the Coronavirus is until it is described as The Virus of Peace.

ConservativeFred
ConservativeFred
Reply to  King Tut
2 months ago

Beautiful, just beautiful.

ProUSA
ProUSA
Reply to  King Tut
2 months ago

If it could testify against Hillary it would be dead by now.

Range Front Fault
Range Front Fault
2 months ago

You think women have lost it! The state of Utah is run by soft globalist pansy “men’ virtue signaling this state to death. Whatever you think about Mormons, those old ancestors that pulled handcarts across the country were some tough SOB’s and are now rolling over and over in their 6 feet under homes in sheer shock and frustration. Yesterday Gov. Herbert (globalist) shut the schools minimum of 2 weeks BUT schools will be open to had out gib food to dirt people kids because parents can’t be bothered to be responsible enough to feed-clothe-discipline or most anything else their… Read more »

Jay Dee
Jay Dee
Reply to  Range Front Fault
2 months ago

Now imagine 8% White Los Angeles Unified.

ExNativeSon
ExNativeSon
Reply to  Range Front Fault
2 months ago

RFF—In a few weeks I am planning to visit a couple of old friends who escaped with their families to a highly Mormon area in the Rockies from Cali.

They are beyond livid at the current crop of Mormon leaders. But it should show us that there is no place to run and hide. There may be a place for us to run and fight but I am not counting on it.

Cheers.

Range Front Fault
Range Front Fault
Reply to  ExNativeSon
2 months ago

As the Kingfish (Amos and Andy) would proclaim, “I am Regusted!
Seriously, ExNative, thanks for sharing that your Rocky Mt friends are Regusted with the church leadership. The last few years it dawned on me too that there is no place to run no place to hide. And the Mormons are now just as pussified as the rest of the country. Just handing Utah over to the dominant culture and our globalist overlords. Best regards and take care!

Lorenzo
Lorenzo
Reply to  Range Front Fault
2 months ago

Same in Washington State. The first priority of the schools seems to be passing out goodies to the indigent.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Range Front Fault
2 months ago

I mean, they *did* fall for the continued failed prophecies of a madman… so…

pick
pick
2 months ago

you may end up very incorrect. time will tell. but buying up tp is a prudent measure to avoid inflation…

Al from da Nort
Al from da Nort
Reply to  pick
2 months ago

Pick; Don’t know about TP as an inflation hedge, but creating a reserve inventory of non-perishable stuff that you’ll use anyway doesn’t seem like a terrible idea in times of uncertainty. The only exception I can think of would be if you were paying Credit Card open balance interest rates to finance said inventory. Besides this, it seems like you’d be taking some initiative for you and your family’s protection instead of just hoping that our beloved govt. doesn’t screw the situation up more. Frankly, I don’t see how people talking about how incompetent our rulers are can be making… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Al from da Nort
2 months ago

Al, the situation is how much to stock and when. A week or so ago I made a run to Costco for some regular staples. I noticed on a normally dead afternoon, lines through the isles. One person next to me have four or so of those big bundles of TP. Really, enough to last until X-mas or so. It was then I began to figure something amiss. In a normal circumstance, there would be TP for all, if that person—and the dozen after them—bought a single bundle (enough to last a month or two).