Pandemic

I penetrated the infection zone at 0900. For several miles I expected guards or maybe a traffic jam, but instead the road was clear with no signs of activity. In fact, I was not even sure I was in the infected zone until I started to see the abandoned cars. Some of the cars had been set on fire for some reason. It was more abandoned cars and then I started to see the bodies. At first it was a body slumped over in a car. Then it was a corpse in the road and then too many to count.

The road became impassable near what used to be an old roadside stop. A set of stores on one side and a gas station on the other. I stopped and got out of the car to look around. I spotted a big fellow, with blond hair sitting against a wall. He was shirtless and looked like he had been in a fight. He was holding a dove or pigeon. I’m not good with birds, but it was white and the size of a pigeon. Looking around, he appeared to be the only living thing, so I approached him and asked him what had happened.

He looked at me and asked if I liked fries with mayonnaise. It was a bizarre question, but I am familiar with the Dutch, so I understood his meaning straight away. In his final moments, he was thinking of futures past.  After some back and forth, he said to me, “I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.”

Ah, what might have been. My trip to Old Blighty was scuttled by the Chinese plague, so instead of doing travelogues this weekend, it is an impromptu podcast. I did not have a lot of time to put it together, so it is a little ragged. I figured since I was not going to be on the road, I had no excuse for skipping this week. It’s weird, but it bugs me when I skip a week for some reason. I feel like I’m shirking my responsibilities. A man should stick to his commitments, no matter how trivial.

Along the same lines, I feel bad for having to cancel the trip. I was looking forward to seeing Mark and his folks. He is one of the better speakers and organizers on this side of the great divide. It’s always a pleasure to see him work. But, I think I made the right call by staying home. This virus is serious and we need to do what we can to limit our social interactions for the time being. Even if the alarmist are half right, we have a very serious public health crisis on our hands.

There’s also the fact that in stressful times, reasonable people need to be reasonable and level headed. I have people counting on me to do the right thing, so setting a good example is important. If everywhere we look the sober minded are taking precautions against infection, the less sober minded will be inclined to follow. If you always assume you are an example to at least one other person in this world, you are always reminded to set a good example.

There’s also the practical issues. It’s pretty clear that the UK government is less prepared for this than the US government. By Sunday Boris Johnson could be locking down the country. We are not only into uncharted territory in terms of the virus, but we have no idea what our ruling class idiots are going to do. All we know at this point is they don’t know what to do. I’m much more concerned about that than the plague, for the simple reason I trust the plague more than our rulers.

That really is the main issue at the moment. In good times, you can have idiots and girts in positions of authority. The last time we had a serious crisis, there were serious men in government, who knew what to do. Whatever you may think about the massive bailout of the banks during the mortgage crisis, it prevented a collapse. This time, I fear we don’t have serious men in the room. We may be about to learn why it is a bad idea to stock government with entertaining nitwits.

This week I have the usual variety of items in the now standard format. Spreaker has the full show. I am up on Google Play now, so the Android commies can take me along when out disrespecting the country. I am on iTunes, which means the Apple Nazis can listen to me on their Hitler phones. The anarchists can catch me on iHeart Radio. I am now on Deezer, for our European haters and Stitcher for the weirdos. YouTube also has the full podcast. Of course, there is a download link below.


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This Week’s Show

Contents

  • 00:00: Opening
  • 02:00: Cancelling Britain
  • 12:00: Panic
  • 22:00: The Reality Of The Virus
  • 31:00: The Financial Impact
  • 41:00: What Shall Be Revealed
  • 51:00: Should We Be worried
  • 57:00: Closing

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Full Show On Spreaker

Full Show On YouTube

183 thoughts on “Pandemic

  1. Hey Z, there is a typo in your second-last paragraph — “Sticther” instead of “Stitcher”.

  2. And now for something completely different….
    Z…you referenced Germany’s AfD party in a recent podcast. This is how Germany is responding to AfD election win.
    “Germany puts far-right AfD’s “Wing” group under surveillance”
    Germany will put a far-right faction of the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, under surveillance on the grounds of being an extremist organization. The faction represents up to 40 percent of AfD members in Germany’s east.–Geopolitical Futures

  3. Nature is once again asserting that the fitnest among us should be persisting rather than the latest popular dysfunctional fad imbued in hive-minded parasitic sycophants. Choose wisely.

  4. An aside, I searched “Joe Biden has dementia” on Google; all I got were jeremiads on the mendaciousness of conservatives and how it’s all a far-right fib.

    Duckduckgo, a relatively neutral search engine, had factual assessments of Biden’s behavior.

    It’s not our internet anymore.

  5. Oh shoot New Rochelle- that’s Pelham.

    Our good Bologna Tester or the Babe are there, aren’t they? Bless you and keep you, friends. Everybody on the East Coast.

    Locked and loaded, headed for the zombie wasteland of Elizabeth. Hope I survive one more day. Running low on Charmin.

  6. We may be about to learn why it is a bad idea to stock government with entertaining nitwits.

    “Nitwits”? No argument but “entertaining”? Sez who?

  7. “Former coronavirus patient Jerri Jorgensen said Friday that the hysteria surrounding the coronavirus has “gotten out of control,” recalling when she was barred from a gym after undergoing quarantine.” https://www.foxnews.com/media/woman-coronavirus-hysteria-out-of-control

    OK then. Woman has test and it says she had coronavirus. She had a very mild temperature and “felt a little bit off for about two to three hours.” She is 65. Barred from her Gym even though she is now negative and her immune system now gives her lifetime immunity. She is truly the safest person in her state.

    I don’t think young people know how the immune system works. After decades of lies from Big Pharma and its allies in the government, people think safety comes from a vaccination only. I would go on about how false that is by our kind host might have to ban me to keep from being de-platformed so I’ll just shut up.

    • Mark….Jerri lives 50 miles from me in Utah. Got word she and her husband are getting death threats. Irrational crazy people scare me much more than the Wuhan virus.

  8. Z-man, since you’re staying home, and many of us are doing the same; Could we have a “hunkering down” post? Books, movies, podcasts, etc.,?

  9. I’m a girl and I get to change my mind. Yesterday what I wrote sounded like the Charge of the Light Brigade….into the valley of death rode the 600. Was inflating my courage. Can’t outrun reality. Reality is staring me in the eyes, deflating my bravado like my old girl triceps. Am sitting tight and canceling plans to visit friends in Laughlin, stay in a large casino and dine out. Damn and blast! Will visit neighbors unless they go into freak-out mode.
    The good news is we are all prepped up and won’t run out of TP or most things for that matter. The bad news is my Ex-Commie Lefty brain is now dominant causing me to see the glass half empty and viewing those who see the glass half full as ignoring reality. Is that my Commie brain or Derb’s pessimist realistic brain?

    Trump has just declared a national emergency and Fauci has warned a complete US shutdown is on the table and could last a couple months. What would that look like?

    Possibly like this:

    https://www.theorganicprepper.com/covid-19-lockdown-quarantine-pattern/

    Plan for: Where do you want to be during a quarantine or lockdown? When will you stop going to work or sending the kids to school? Do you have enough supplies to see you through 7-8 weeks or longer? If you don’t, there are still ways to prep and things you can do to prepare.
    I just paid a pitance for that guide to get further prepared for the possibility of a Covid-19 lockdown. Don’t freak and take care of business.

    And Re-Read SamlAdams beginning post on this thread.

    • I knew it. T’was a Millenial who developed the Cov-Sars-2 strain, eh?

      If we Boomer bulls won’t move, you’re gonna make us move. It’s your turn on top o’ the hill.

  10. An American Singh in Jersey just solved the riddle.
    Why the attack on China?

    The Chinese petrodollar.

    China, now risen, was pulling back, and cultivating Third World oil/energy producers who chafed under the Anglo-Arab OPEC yoke.
    Russia, continuously weakened, couldn’t.

    The East has been building alternatives in settlement, energy, security, trade-
    China’s economy gave the Orient a chance to break away. Can’t let that happen, or the West chokes under its own debt.

    Bin Salmen, Erdogan, Dr. Lieber, the media, the Fed: this is a multipronged campaign. An attack in concert.

    • Oops, forgot to add the Wuhan bozo who sold infected animals out the back door to the wet market. He got paid a million bucks. Bet a nickel he’s a patsy of Xi’s political enemies, the faction that wanted Xi to lose face and his office.

      Soros brought down the Asian Tigers in 1997 shorting the Thai baht, remember? The Pacific Shield is financial as well as military. Ours.

      (The PS is the string of connected China Sea nations that blockade China- Philipines, Thailand, Korea, Japan, etc.)

      • Nuts, you say.
        But Trump wouldn’t go all Iraq or Libya/Syria- and the mil planners remember Korea.

  11. Yawn. Swine flu did more damage but we never got to such a point— no criticism of President Zero, no alarm over death tolls , but a hell of a jumping off point for Obamacare and now economic contraction.

  12. In “A Connecticut Yankee in King Authors Court”, the first thing the protagonist thinks when he goes back in time, “My god, there’s no soap!”

    • I suppose he could make some out of fireplace ashes and animal tallow, but when people are living at the edge of starvation, a person who rubs precious fat and oil all over himself every day might as well be killing babies and drinking their blood.

    • Which is very silly. Soap certainly existed in the Viking Era if not earlier.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j30HOdWJ5gE

      Victorians were smart people with a good grasp of human nature and common sense but were pig ignorant in some areas and suffered from that oh so human assumption that people in the past were morons.

      Even without soap you can clean yourself with ashes and water though its hard on skin

  13. We are in an unprecedented 3rd bubble in a row! Bubbles only happened maybe once in living memory in the past. People got wiped out during bubbles and people remembered and became very risk averse. We had the stock market tech bubble in the late 90s, the housing bubble in the naughts and now we have a stock market and bond bubble.
    The risks of this giant bubble deflating are enormous. A big part of the stock market rise of the last decade was companies taking on debt in the bond market to buy their own stocks. Now they have all this debt and need to service it while revenues will probably drop. Corporations used to sit on money that would get them through tough periods. The airlines are probably going to fail if travel restrictions remain in place. All those corporate bonds are in banks, pensions, municipal and state pensions. Who the heck knows how interconnected all these things are and how one or 2 sectors taking large hits could bring the whole thing down?
    I am not especially worried about the virus. I have a low risk profile for catching it. But the panic is another story. We are all vulnerable if it crashes the bubble.

    • Not sure I agree, but am no expert. What I’ve heard for a long time now is that companies have been taking on debt because the interest rates are basically zero. They can use their cash reserves more efficiently in investing. Certainly, big companies like Apple are awash in cash.

      • I’m no expert either. I’ve just been hearing this stuff in the last week or 2. Let us hope they are wrong.

      • Corporate debt is at an all time high. Ditto money printing and QE (don’t call it that!) Maybe what’s happening is positive in the long, long, run.

        • CEO’s started to be graded and paid based on the stock price, to “align them with share-holder interests”. Not being stupid the first thing CEO’s did was borrow money and buy back stock. Given the laws of supply and demand, the less Stock, the higher the price.
          See how easy that was?
          Beats the shit out of, say, developing new and better products, such as planes that don’t fall out of the sky.
          https://www.investors.com/news/top-performing-dow-stock-boeing-unloads-billions-more-on-investors/

          It worked fine in 2017, right up to the point where it didn’t. But hey, what’s a few dead dago’s?

  14. No hand sanitizer on the East coast.

    3%+ Hydrogen Peroxide
    or, isopropyl alcohol

    A 99c airline bottle or spritzer, or just refill one of those 99c pocket sanitizer spritzers, even better.

    • PS- if you rinse your hands in peroxide, you can wipe down that face you just touched too.

      (A bit of Neosporin around the nostrils also helps)

      Brown cotton gloves are 99c.
      Wash your hands, then go touch the same door 166 other people have gone thru in the last hour?

  15. My brother and his wife just bugged out of their home on the outskirts of one of our East Coast diversitopias to wait out this thing with me back home in the backcountry. He brought all his guns, and more importantly, himself. I don’t have to worry about trusting him and my cousins. There’s still country boys who can handle shit.

    • Last week I went into indefinite “home quarantine”. Now I just lay on the bed all day in a fetal position and listen to the radio. Wife no longer talks to me. Ah, the life…… 😉

      • I have my radios batteried up. It would suck if I had a power outage, but I least I have the radio. AM can travel a really long ways at night. I can pick up Tennessee, Boston, NYC, Chicago, the Carolinas, Kentucky and some random other places from Philly.

  16. The media are showing their power to shut down the economy.

    And their reach. Their connectedness.
    They got gay marriage and tranny awareness through, and made global warming a common watchword, eh?
    Meme power.

    The Chinese didn’t know what they were dealing with.
    But… why aren’t the homeless dropping like flies?

    Last year, Bloomberg attended a Gates Institute event. It was a world pandemic scenario; the script was a near perfect copy of the response we’re seeing today.

    Trump, not there, looks like he knows nothing.
    Are we seeing the 1968 Democratic convention, updated?

  17. The Boogaloo:

    What I expected: Dying in battle on the field of honor in an attempt to secure the last of my rights.

    What I got: Dying in battle in an aisle at Costco in an attempt to secure the last of the Charmin.

    • What many of us expected: community-building and grim perseverance through a hostile culture, ultimately leading to a space for Our People

      What we may actually get: a Chinese virus ripping through the West which topples neoliberal institutions and rekindles nationalism-populism on a grand scale. Thanks, virus!

  18. I have no more idea how this thing will work out in N. America China and Italy may be good guides, we’ll see. However there are a few things that will happen:

    – more panic behaviour, some of it violent in diverse neighbourhoods
    – a proliferation of home remedies for the disease and plenty of snake oil salesmen selling them
    – politicians will be more concerned with their positions than the public welfare
    – plenty of black humour, social media is already full of it
    – someone will point out that Nostradamus predicted it

      • “And it shall come to pass that the flame of the dragon will engulf the world, with prophets and kings bowing before it. And the cleansing of the bowels will be sought after by the masses.”

  19. Something that I don’t think necessarily came through is that the death rate depends on how the community reacts. Even if it becomes endemic and no vaccine ever appears (meaning everyone will eventually have to be exposed), there can be a big difference in the number that die. The main issue is avoiding overloading the medical system. Buying time means that the incidence rate is reduced and the medical system has time to ramp up to deal with it.

    This is a long but very illustrative post that shows that one probably can reduce the death rate at least a factor of 5 if we properly handle this. There will be disruptions of course, but it can save many lives.

    Not paying attention to real data is really stupid.

    • You can also reduce the death rate by 5, If you have 5 x’s the equipment and capacity in the health care system. We do, even adjusting for population.

        • I’m worried about respirators, myself. Those and the drugs/personnel to intensely monitor such therapy. We shall see. But we have a lot more resources to be pulled into any such emergency situation than most others. Just consider our armed forces and the myriad of facilities they have at hand which we are using even now.

          Most hospitals are designed to get a person, treated and stabilized and then out to other, less expensive facilities. The bed count of the good Dr Ding would seem to indicate we are the most healthy population in the world, when compared to others. What it really shows is we are the most efficient at using these expensive facilities to their ultimate, and highest purpose.

          Case in point, me. I wrote a bit about getting MRI’s, CAT scans, colonoscopies and the like. Well, none of that was done in a hospital setting. Rather a myriad of special clinics which handle everything on an out patient basis. Even hospital overflows are often handled this was sometimes. If folks just need a bed and hourly checks for developments, then a military tent hospital will due, or the local gymnasium and a bunch of cots—which is pretty much what the Chinese did with their two week “hospitals” they created for public PR purposes.

  20. Why do you say the UK government is less prepared than the US? I would have said the UK was better prepared, having done more testing, clear daily briefings with the numbers and some consistency of message.

    • Their system of medicine is called NHS and they love it, however they have limited/restricted ability to handle most normal needs, much less a pandemic.

      Equipment such as MRI/CAT scan devices are few and far between and are often booked long in advance. Hell, try to schedule a colonoscopy if you don’t have secondary problematic indications. YouTube is full of videos by angry Britons who tell their horror stories of trying to get past their primary doc’s to get a colonoscopy scheduled. Some tried for months, and after the colonoscopy, found out they were in stage 4 cancer. Screw that.

      I had the need to do some personal research here couple of years ago and the first paper I pulled was from the British Journal of Medicine. The basic gist was that the NHS was “under-resourced” wrt funding colonoscopies, and they were lamenting how many more lives would be saved if they could expand such screening.

      Here in the US recently, the recommended age was reduce to 40 or 50, I forget. And of course, everyone who has family history, or secondary indications of trouble, get them PDQ. Took me exactly two weeks to schedule one—and I was in no hurry. Insurance picked up the bill. Obama ACA mandates that all insurance pay for colonoscopies, but I’m uncertain the age. NHS, not so much, but hell it’s free, free I tell you, and it’s your right to die waiting for your free health care. Go Bernie!

      • “Their system of medicine is called NHS…” That’s not actually correct. The National Health Service is the state health care provider but there is a huge private health care sector in the UK too. Many Brits have private health insurance.

        The NHS is funded by means of a specific tax called National Insurance which all Brits have to pay regardless of whether they use the NHS or not. So Brits who have private health care insurance are, in effect, paying twice.

        • Yes, but NHS is colloquial for the free one. Of course free is a misnomer. One way or another, folks pay. Here we pay for everything spent as well, but often the costs are (purposefully) hidden and if one brings up the deficit, that is paid either through retiring those bonds, or eventually inflation.

          We pay twice for certain things, like private schooling as well. And btw, Medicare is *not* free (taxes on wages), and I should say also not inclusive. For hospitalization, I pay the mandatory $144 per month. For everything over (Medicare pays 80%, you pay the rest) I have private insurance. And I tried to avoid even Medicare, but that was too difficult, so I went dual insured.

          A long time ago I was in London with my father. We spoke with a native in a pub who politely asked us about the States and described and compared what we said with his country, as he understood it. The topic of course came around to National Health Care, which he was most proud of. He pulled off his glasses and remarked something to the effect that under National Health Care, these glasses were free—and not only that—he could request a new prescription every 9 months or so. The intentof his message I assumed was that this was quite special and those without a NHS were lacking in some fashion and had a lot of nearsighted folk running around and bumping into lampposts and what not.

          My father pulled off his glasses and said, “I just got these as well. Before we left. In a shop in the neighborhood. Got the exam, picked the frames, had the frames filled (glass cut and polished), and was out the door in 45 minutes, no waiting, no appointment. $9.95!” 😉
          This was no exaggeration as I just happened to be with him when he got them.

          Anyway, the discussion soon changed to other similarities and differences between our two nations—like warm beer vs the cold piss water the Americans like. He had us on that.

          • I can so relate to that story. Brits have a very weird attitude to the USA that I find impossible to explain. On the one hand, there is a degree of unspoken admiration but, on the other hand, a resentment at what they regard as American crassness, arrogance and their purported indifference to the rest of humanity.

            When I was a child, one my aunts explained to me that America was “highly mechanised but not quite civilised”. That sort of sums up the British view of the USA. Very odd.

  21. During my last few shopping trips I’ve done some extra stocking up on canned goods. During the lower-middle-class phase of my childhood, we often had canned ham (which I thought was delicious). I didn’t know it was sold any other way until I was older. I hadn’t remembered or thought about that in decades. But now I a have a few canned hams on a shelf in the garage along with other canned stuff just in case. They don’t expire until 2024.

    • I thought spam was gross until I tried fried spam and eggs for breakfast. Love the stuff now but still rarely buy it.

      • My old man used to get an appetite for fried spam sandwiches and make them for us a couple times a year–they used to eat it a lot in the old Navy when refrigerated space was limited and they’d been at sea for long stretches. It horrified my mother. I make it with eggs once in while just to turn over the just-in-case supply in the basement larder.

        • Spam on every menu in every restaurant in Hawaii. Crazy about the stuff. I even got it at a family Christmas dinner there.

          They should go back to cannibalism. Really.

  22. I enjoy sportspuck and will miss the NHL. Zman is not married so this may not occur to him, but turning on the game is one way to get your wife to leave you alone. I’m happily married but a man needs time alone. Now my wife will want me to watch her shows on TV most of the time. Sigh.

    • No shit Mike. I bet Hallmark and Lifetime won’t be going away. Hell, they’ll probably see a huge increase in viewers.

      I will surely miss hockey.

      • Way back I remember answering a phone survey about t.v. viewing habits. They kept asking about channels like Lifetime and didn’t believe me when I said I had never heard of it. I truly do not watch any t.v. myself, although I will admit I glanced in at a few scenes of “The New Pope” the other night when hubby was watching. Hubby and I used to watch movies together sent over from the US when we lived abroad – it was a taste of home, particularly since Bulgarian t.v. didn’t appeal. Otherwise, not my idea of ‘together’ time.

      • Worse, you get the see H&GTV. Just about all remodeling shows. They are mesmerized by them—and take notes. You must watch and then listen to their remodel plans for your (really their) own home. My problem is, the old lady has more money than me. She books no objections. 😉

    • One of the college refugees just arrived back. I suggested a nice family dinner and ordering up “The Shining” on cable. Didn’t go over well.

  23. Z – One piece of advice I have to disagree with you on.
    If you or a loved one has flu symptoms but is not gravely ill, do NOT go to the hospital. Most hospital labs are just for basic stuff and do not run that kind of sophisticated test (Mayo affiliated hospitals are the exception). The media reports it all wrong when they bitch about “kits” and make it sound like a home pregnancy test.

    Go to your doctor or clinic, request that they do a respiratory swap and send it to Quest Diagnostics or LabCorp. The turn-around-time is 3-4 days and the results are real.
    https://ir.labcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/labcorp-launches-test-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19

    • Don’t know about that. My lab in NW Montana does lots of molecular testing. The testing has gotten so that even small, rural hospitals have limited on-site molecular. Mostly flu, RSV, SGA. If what i hear is true, especially now that Roche has gotten into it, I expect to see PCR tests using existing tech hit the hospital labs quite soon. Probably also with expedited validation procedures as well.

    • More like a result of single payer health care. Those schemes require rationing by definition – so treating current tax-payers, then future tax-payers are the #1 and #2 priorities. Letting pensioners die is a feature.

      • I think the virus already made that decision for them. And what’s wrong with treating taxpayers first? First you guys bitch about immigrants not paying taxes and using services, now you call prioritizing taxpayers “socialism”.

        • Rationing health care by prioritizing the “benefit to the state” of keeping some tax payers alive/treated as vs others. That’s socialized medicine at it essence. In the case of emergency, like triage in war, it’s understandable as engagements are not necessarily planned for. But in this situation, prioritizing scarce resources as benefits the State and not the individual seems suboptimal on a personal level, which is why I won’t vote for such a plan.

          Hell, if that’s the case, we might as well go full “Logan’s Run” and kill everyone over a certain age. Some retirement plan….

      • Isn’t the NHS quite openly Darwinian?
        They make no secret of the fact that available treatment is based on factors including age, contributing habits, other health conditions etc.
        There’s no pretense that “The best available care” will be provided to all.

        • And that’s the way it should/will be when you establish “free” health care. The way NHS is funded, is like we fund the military. NHS asks for the moon, the government says here all you get for this fiscal year, use it wisely. Something around 500B Pounds last year IIRC.

          So what’s an organization to do, spend 100K giving an old fart another 6 months, or spend 100K on neonatal care? Single payer—and it’s free—want more, sorry—but it’s free—if you can get it!

          • The solution for old Brits with money – hop on a plane to the U.S. and pay for real doctors – may not be available this time around if travel is restricted and the health system is swamped.

          • It’s a solution for Canadian MDs as well. I’ve had more than one Canuck MD drive to my hospital and pay cash (okay, a cheque) out of pocket to get a heart catheterization now rather than wait months at home. And these are folks WITHIN the Great White Northern miracle health system who know all the key words and symptoms to complain of to get to the head of the line. For the ordinary Joe? Waaal ….

          • Many Brits have private medical insurance and they avail themselves of private healthcare options in the UK.

          • Thank God for the escape valve. Note that many/most of the proposals in the US health-care-for-all plans outlawed private insurance. The first such one was the fiasco under Hillary Clinton in the early 90’s.

            Now I don’t imagine for a moment that any such plan mandating we all submit to State run health care will affect the elites. They will always go to wherever they need to obtain the best care their money can buy. I’d just like a fair chance to do the same.

        • NHS is stretched at the best of times, as well as being staffed with many of Britain’s vibrants. I can see that health system collapsing and some real conflict over who gets treated and who doesn’t. But if having their daughters get raped didn’t wake up the English, I guess having Granny die in the street probably won’t matter either,

    • So now it’s a national emergency? I get the feeling there’s more going on than an epidemic. Or I’m telling myself that to contain my disgust.

      Believe it people big daddy government is going to give you what you want, and then some.

      • National emergency is not a comment directly on the disease, but rather needed to assume more control behaviorally and financially. Flood gates open for swag to be given to any and all who come knocking. But that’s just my cynical interpretation. I’m certain the average normie will continue to confuse “looting the treasury” for fighting the disease.

        As was mentioned in today’s commentary, such power ceded to “leadership” as it exists today may simply be pouring money down a rat hole. However, to keep this posting somewhat upbeat, there may be some benefit as in if you throw enough money at the problem, you may hit the right spot with some. The rest however will go into someone’s bank account.

        • I heard that some entrepreneurs are knocking on doors, pretending to be from the CDC amd offering $99 coronavirus tests.

        • The regulators and bureaucrats- union Dems all- were holding up necessary measures. For instance, the Seattle doctors had to resort to taking swab samples “illegally” because they didn’t ask bureau permission- they had, and had already been turned down. They decided to try to track the contagion themselves.

          The Congressionals and bureau heads were holding out for more money. Pelosi demanded millions more for Planned Parenthood- gotta keep that money laundry washing back more taxpayer cash to the Democrat Party.

          So Trump called together the suppliers, the CEOs, said “get ‘er done”, and declared national emergency powers so he could override the government insects and their red tape. They were the azzwipes holding up effective response.

  24. The “serious men in the room’s” prevention of the last collapse stacked the wood higher and soaked it in more gasoline. All of a sudden people are blindsided when the wuhan virus lights a match. Can’t solve a debt crisis by piling on more debt.

    In ’08, the bankers who collapsed the system, lining their pockets while offloading downside risk, they all skated. The paid-whore ratings agencies, the loan underwriting departments, the financiers most steeped in the fraud were rewarded…almost all escaped consequences. No prosecutions…not even bank failures. No consequences means no lessons and no changes.

    This shit is going to keep happening until some political force rises to crush it and dispossess the bugmen that perpetrated it. Mom and Pop are existentially threatened when their retirement funds are left a smoldering ruin (twice in 12 years), just to finance the cloud people’s exorbitant lifestyle. The anger is unbelievable. If the DR is going to be successful, it will have to include strangling breathless this neo-Keynesian, monetarist horse shit.

    Zman, all of this – the reinforcement, the repetition of the multi-layered fraud and corruption – comes along with “prevention of the collapse.” What we needed was extensive bankruptcy processes, seizure, breaking-apart, and sale of the failed (bailed out) entities, prosecutions and imprisonment of the criminally culpable. I doubt we’re going to get it this time either.

    • Schumpeter’s ‘creative destruction’, oddly, doesn’t apply to those who came up with the concept.

  25. In those first few paragraphs, I figured you must have decided to visit downtown L.A. for some stupid reason…

    • Hey, the Farmers Market is nice. I bought some medicinal greens last time I was down there, very expensive but very aromatic. Pretty sure the plastic bag wasn’t reusable, though.

  26. Bad News: It’s the end of the world.
    Good News: Before we all die, we get one more Zman podcast.

  27. 150,000,000 Americans could get infected. Drudge headline. Buchanan is echoing the figure. Totally sensationalized. Based on a model. Same type of model that showed Ebola would infect more than 1,000,000. it infected 30,000. Worst case scenario this is history this time next year and the dems are pushing Biden out of office for his glorious VP.

  28. You were wise to cancel your trip to Britain. I heard there’s panic on the streets of London; panic on the streets of Birmingham. I wonder to myself – could life ever be sane again, on these side streets that you slip down?

    I wonder to myself.

  29. You know, R nought should decrease precipitously as we move into the warmer months. Cv19 is really just a glorified cold virus and will recede during the spring and summer, like ordinary flus and colds. The virus will fall back into nursing homes and hospitals and it should be quarantined during that time.

    • Maybe, but it is now turning up in warm places. It also means it comes roaring back in the fall. The Spanish Flu struck in waves.

      • And the second was more vicious than the first. More chances at replication, more chances of an “interesting” variant showing up. On the “gibs” note–they started food distribution via the National Guard this morning–not just the shut-ins up the road–but everyone.

        • The Spanish Flu is a useful example in a lot of ways. If it a different virus and has different characteristics, but it is a great example of our ignorance. We really don’t know why the virus suddenly stopped killing people. For that matter, we don’t really understand how it killed people.

          • viruses don’t like to kill their hosts. The annoying side effect of themselves also dying. Mutating to a more benign form is a likely scenario.

          • In horribly overcrowded living conditions such as were common in WW1, flu viruses mutate toward greater virilence. Killing the host is not a handicap when fresh hosts are inches away.

          • This is a rather good point and it kind of puts an end to the ultra natalists idea of MOAR BABEES !

            No sane person with any options wants to live in a slum. The low fertility rates in the developed world, so long as immigration is very low, are good.

            Our economic systems though are controlled by crazy people and money junkies with the morals of metastatic cancer thus immigration and outsourcing.

          • The Muslims are practically there now and once the oil revenue is gone, they’ll swarm Europe and/or die in droves.

            And note Europe will not pay for them, they haven’t the resources.

            The developed world though can have civilization if we are willing to pay for it.

            Its counter intuitive to think especially for people who grew up during the overcrowding/Soylent Green era but technology actually suppresses fertility.

            Civilization requires that men have well remunerated work purpose and stable families. Women have to be reigned in a pressured into being wives and mothers first.

            On top of that social Leftism and subversion of all types needs to be controlled tightly.

            Its not going to be easy to do especially for Americans as we were founded in modernity and our values are rife with nonsense as equality, freedom of speech individualism and worse.

            It was manageable while we had lots of remaining Christian social capital but that is gone.

            This speeds up catabolic collapse a lot and we are seeing the results now with Corona Virus.

            Had we controlled the border and restricted trade this would virus have been a non issue. But of course we didn’t.

            Preventing the collapse over the long term would require a new elite dedicated to that purpose and maybe farther, going to space whatever.

            Money men need not apply and knowing how these people work , such an interregnum government would have to be tough, devious and ready to glass anyone helping the bankers.

          • One could hope, but Cochran doesn’t buy it. Also, then why would there be any such diseases that don’t morf into some sort of parasitic arrangement with the host? Seems the best route is to infect everyone, but kill/debilitate no one.

          • I’d guess that many of the bacteria that co-habitate with us evolved from infectious to parasitic to symbiotic since the last is the most favorable outcome from an evolutionary standpoint. But you’d have to ask Brett Weinstein that question. Not my field.

          • Symbiotic is favorable, but it can also be a great starting point for weaponizing the thing and making it more lethal.

          • Seen discussions that indicated Covid19 has done just that with two distinct “sub-clades” (believe that is the term of art) Some theory that the less virulent form is the one in widest circulation. Certainly not killing the younger portion of the population is a very advantageous trait–if you are a virus. Asymptomatic transmission is another.

          • Yes, type “S” and type “L”. “L” being most virulent and “S” being most common. A report that at least one patient being infected with both types, and a possible explanation as to why there are reports of repeated infection in an individual. But I’ve seen no report as to whether L preceded S or the opposite, which is the point of interest here. Also of interest is whether one provides immunity to the other—should you survive. 🙁

      • Never looked too deep into the spanish flu but I’d be interested to know how trench life, returning soldiers, and bad sanitation affected its spread/lethality.

        • We grew up with antibiotics and forgot how scary ‘pandemic’ sounded to those experiencing the very first round of fast global travel.

          1918 was still quite fresh on German minds, those stories are what they were raised with.

        • That would be interesting. I note here that people travelled by boat. Did they not show symptoms of being sick before they arrived from Europe? Could they have recovered even before docking. Or did the virus jump serially from one soldier to another, so there was always a carrier to bring it ashore.

        • Many who die from “flu” actually die from secondary infections due to immune collapse. Many of those are bacterial. Sort of like AIDS.

  30. Thanks Z. Great podcast. Enjoy listening to you on my sudden ” unpaid vacation ” .

    Wonder how much of this hyperbole is being generated by women in positions of authority ? Read once, ” Every old man dies in a foreign country ”

    Day after day heading out into to this suffocating wave of the nanny state me thinks , what have we become ?

    Good luck to all my fellow dissidents and remain vigilant.

  31. Let’s hope this virus has a seasonal cycle, otherwise the situation might get way worse, western leaders are trash.

    • Funny that it hasn’t started tearing through Africa. Makes he hope that is doesn’t like heat and humidity as we head into Spring.

      • We’re not getting reliable data from the first world. The likelihood of getting reliable data from Africa is about the same as those infinite number of monkeys typing “Hamlet.”

      • Its active in at least eleven countries but given African mortality rates assuming the 5% even 10% mortality and high infectiousness, its just a line item.

        Chin and the West OTOH have very low fertility so in essence our casualties are not replaceable.

        The only salve to this is that it mostly kills post reproduction aged people at least in the West so while it reduces the population , it doesn’t take out future reproduction.

        Its also hugely slowing the movements of peoples which is a good thing.

        Of course truth is there won’t be a baby recovery till the worlds urban systems collapse and this will either happen with something much nastier than this plague or most probably by slow decline.

    • The “leaders” are just the front-facing paid operatives of the Davos crowd: the Banksters, the Military Industrial Complex, and the Global Corporations. That’s why nothing ever changes except the names on the ballot.

  32. I’m in a place that is effectively 100% white. The closest urban enclave is more than an hour away. Everything here has always worked well and no one has any expectations that this will ever change. We periodically have 4 foot snow storms and things still work well. Hurricane season brings everyone together. We board up windows and stock up community centers to make sure we’re all well supplied should the worst happen. The young are watched over by not only family but by most adults in the area. Most of the elderly have plenty of family nearby to help out. If not there are plenty of neighbors willing and able to help without having to be asked. Whenever the weather comes up or some crisis has to be dealt with the helping hands outnumber those who need a helping hand by several factors…….Greetings from 1958…….

      • In 1958 it could have been anywhere in Western Civilization excluding American cities which were beginning to be ethnically cleansed of whites. The type of crisis wouldn’t really matter. It is an example of what we’ve lost. The sort of social capital we once took for granted. If you went up to anyone then to discuss social capital they won’t even comprehend what we were babbling about. No one needed to define such a thing because it was simply the way things were. They had few if any examples of anything different.

        Did you hear the one about the two fish? The first fish says,”What do you think about the ocean today?”. The second fish answers, “What’s an ocean?”.

        • Social Capital, one of the first great concepts I gleaned from this blog. Once grasped, I see such dwindling almost everyday.

    • It’s like that in a lot of rural areas where people might move out, but not too many move in. I know all my neighbors, we help each other out, and there are numerous connections between people. Z needs to get to West Va quicker rather than later.

  33. Not a perfect analogy, but the old Metcalfe’s Law of network connectivity is a handy tool to understand social connectivity. Simple formula n(n-1)/2 –where “n” is number of nodes–will generate the number of unique node to node connections in a network and show how utility scales. And distancing can scale it the other way.

    • Excellent. What science discipline is Metcalfe’s Law from?

      And which ‘tards would downvote such a reveal? Tossers.

      • It’s just a formula that calculates the information exchange value of networks. But I use it in presentations as an easy way to understand exponentials. Hey, you never know whose cornflakes got pissed in this morning and now have a hard on for the rest of world.

        • The problem is that diseases ‘new case’ numbers don’t follow an exponential at all. They’re logarithmic – as both human and environmental factors slow things down once it gets going.

          • Yes, but explaining that to someone not familiar is a non-starter. Made the mistake a few times years ago putting log scaling into presentation charts designed for non-quant audiences. The simple formula helps them grasp how quickly you can descale exposure by limiting social contact.

  34. Depending on the infection and death rates we could see some impressive demographic shifts.

    Older population is heavily white, and if they take a hit the country will suddenly take a step closer to majority minority status. If guys like Steve sailer croak their audience will be on the lookout for a new home somewhere.

    Ten years from now someone like Patrick Casey could be the big ‘right wing’ thing. Not that I hope Steve sailer goes anywhere, the man is a national treasure but the point stands that any significant change to the boomer population will likely herald further changes to the Overton window. I think the age of Trump has more giving left to do.

    • It would also bring it into sharp relief. The slow dying off of the older generation makes the embrownening seem natural. If suddenly the pie graph broke, normie will be shocked awake.

      • Ideally. It would certainly render the Republican party unelectable until they either went under, or appealed more explicitly to white and working class interests.

    • Wise old white guys who run, maintain, and fix things being replaced by younger, inexperienced affirmative action hires. A rebirth, a second renaissance, peace and harmony, a world that only true diversity can bring about!

    • “Older population is heavily white, and if they take a hit the country will suddenly take a step closer to majority minority status”

      Fair enough, but prevalence of obesity, diabetes (type 2), and hypertension is high in Hispanic and Black populations in the US. This excess burden of risk factors associated with COVID19 severity may even things out to some degree. (If so, it will be trumpeted as a “public health DISPARITY” and claimed to be due to institutional racism.)

    • “majority minority” is imaginary concept that assume white people will have decent life when they have no leverage at all
      concept that fabricated by same group that promoting Anti-racist open society, open border, open market etc

      America already half brown country where whitish culture wipe out and erased
      Right Now, system arresting white men who complained on the internet with BS charged

      “Majority Minority”? Ask White South African that do they really feel backed from State

  35. That line from Rutger Hauer was fantastic. Apparently he took liberties in parsing it down from the planned script. Always loved that movie; it did the novel justice.

    • There are a few books like that. I think, “The Hunt for Red October,” did a good job honoring the original novel.

      There are a few films that are better than the original novel. “The Edge of Tomorrow, ” and, “Layer Cake,” are two examples that I think are far better than the original texts. Mainly because the screenplays are much more tightly written and the choices they made improved on just about everything in the text.

    • Hauser ad-libbed. The entire crew stood and applauded at cut. The camera men were openly crying, in tears- they had witnessed a perfect scene.

      • Hauer really was a talent that should have had a larger footprint. He was able to elevate and make schlock like, “Blind Fury,” and, “Surviving the Game,” rewatchable.

  36. Whatever you may think about the massive bailout of the banks during the mortgage crisis, it prevented a collapse.
    –“Delayed”, delayed the collapse. A more serious, talented crew would have seen the writing on the wall after the munged together bailout of Bear-Sterns and declared a bank holiday and reset the financial system, jailed some bankers, and re-implemented proper controls. Even today, 12 years on, the Fed is still taking in MBS trash in an effort to paper over the faults in the financial system.

    To your point though, they probably did the best they could with talents/criminal tendencies available to them. I recall someone at National Review (?!) predicted the failure of Lehman, I have an easy time believing the regulators in charge were even more clueless.

    • On point. Had a neighbor that was an economist at the Fed–asked once about the strategy in acquiring and managing that portfolio plus who they brought on board to do it. And how they would unwind what they bought. He just laughed.

    • Everything coming out of the Fed and the other CBs indicates they are going to hit Ctrl-P as much as possible to keep asset prices inflated.

    • Jailing bankers has no effect on the culture of grifting. We did that back during the S&L crisis, thousands of men did real time.

      The lesson learned? Lobby to change the law.

      As Glen Frey once famously said, the lure of easy money has a very string appeal.

    • “bailout of Bear-Sterns”

      SteArns. Please respect the former Mr Stern’s decision to adopt a more Anglo-sounding name. It is important to respect and support how a person chooses to self-identify. Bear-Stearns is one thing, Bear, Mayer, Stern would be (have been) another.

      Personally, I dream of and fight for the day when each person can be openly proud of xir heritage and not have to prostrate xirself to the oppressive white power structure. Power to the Powerless!

    • install a retractable style kitchen faucet in your bathroom. Not as convenient as a bidet but it should work fine. You first.

      • Shh! Now, attach that retractable hose to the feed line running up to the tank. Hose and copper fittings cheap at Home Depot.

        Ahhhh. Nothing better. A wonder of the modern world. And use flushable Cottonelle wipes, fer goshsakes.

        You’ll be spoiled. South Asians, who use water, not paper, swear the dry American way is uncomfortable and dirty. Got that right.

        Easier: sports bottles, oh yeah

      • I met a guy that did that for cloth diapers for their new baby. I wonder how long that lasted (the cloth diapers).

    • Seriously. Anyone who’s been to Japan and used one of their TOTO toilets upon returning to America feels like a barbarian just smashing fecal matter into their arse by comparison.

      I thought they were silly until I used one. Simply amazing.

      • Ha! A lot of people swear by them. I live in Japan and have those on all the house thrones. Never used them. TBO, after a couple of decades of using Toto “ecology” toilets, I miss the American round bowl.

      • We had limited options when forced to replace our toilets (tiny rooms) and bought Toto. We were prepared for the “double-flush.” Nope. Uses a fraction of the water. You don’t have to yell at the fam to “jiggle the handle” to spare the water bill. Recommended. My only quibble is the tank lid isn’t flat, limiting that as a place to put stuff.

  37. I wonder what the Z Man will talk about in today’s podcast. I couldn’t make out anything from the title. On an odd note, for some reason my supermarket was all out of toilet paper yesterday. Pro tip: I instead bought 10 boxes of dryer sheets, and I feel…extra fresh today…

    • If we get locked in for a very long time, my wife is going to be very glad I saved all my old car magazines. Foreign car pages first, save the Mopar pages for last…

      • Ha! Betcha my Range Magazine pages are sturdier than your car magazine pages, Dutch guy!
        Z—glad you’re fine, staying home and inspiring your troops! We surely appreciate you.

        • The wife, all innocence:
          “Your old stack of Playboys you thought you kept hidden? But honey, it was an emergency…”

    • I went to the grocery store last night to buy a bushel of rice and a little rat meat.

      Everything was normal except there was no toilet paper, bottled water and, strangely, almost no eggs.

      This last puzzled me. Anyone have an idea (other than JF Sebastian)?

      • Fresh food is the first to go. As I stood in a medium line in Cedar City, a shopping cart with some yummy meat, the woman next to me said she expects to continue to get her fresh produce. My brain smoldered in cognitive dissonance, flashed over, and I said in a controlled voice..don’t expect your fresh food to be there. Better get some canned green beans.
        PS: About the rat meat, might try Hot Rats on a Stick….don’t forget to brine the little buggers! Then a marinade.

  38. Some old advice, published by a guy named Graham. Working emergency services through several natural disasters, including Sandy, this shit is sometimes true. Agree this isn’t the Zombie Apocalypse–but the distribution of “fun” in these things is not even. I’m sitting 800m from the “containment”, we’ve got the National Guard camped on an island connected to the mainland by a drawbridge. Hopefully everyone just pops a squat for a couple weeks and tamps this thing down. But also being a neighbor to some places with a big “gibs” population–any interruption of that will not work well.

    1. NOBODY IS COMING TO SAVE YOU. Whether an event lasts a few seconds, a few hours, or even a few days – you have to work as though nobody is coming to save you.

    2. You are your savior, so start working because EVERYTHING IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY. You are your security, you are your medic, you are your rescuer.

    3. You are your own best resource to SAVE WHO NEEDS TO BE SAVED. Nobody wants to save your life more than you, so set yourself up for success by having the simple tools and knowledge to do so: do what you can with what you have. Recognize that nobody is in a better position to start saving your life than you.

    4. Sometimes saving lives means you have to KILL WHO NEEDS TO BE KILLED. It has been almost 15 years since I first wrote “the more effective you are at taking a life, the more successful you’ll be at saving one” and nothing in the intervening time has changed my mind. Be swift, be decisive, be final.

    5. Mostly, ALWAYS BE WORKING. There is always something you can be doing to improve your position. Always. Because nobody is coming to save you.

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