If you are over a certain age, something you will remember is that the economy used to be a central part of the daily news feed. People talked about the economy because it was always in the mass media. Of course, you had lots of news about finance, especially the stock market. This dovetailed with the stories about the federal budget and the resulting deficits. People used to talk about the federal debt because it was a number that was easy to conceptualize.
All of this has been pushed aside in favor of other topics now. Look at the front page of the New York Times on any day and the one thing you are not going to see is news about the debt or even the economy. Instead it is foreign affairs or perhaps a long story on the fight against Trumpism. The Washington Post is pretty much just a copy and paste operation, relying on press releases from government agencies. It is as if the economy and related topics no longer exist.
One reason people are not talking about the economy over lunch is the mass media has been told to drop it. The real power of corporate media is the power to ignore, which is what they have done with economics. When was the last time the New York Times did a big story on the finances of the government? There was a time when this was a stock feature. People used to know the size of the federal debt because it was a number that was made meaningful by the media.
Another reason econ-talk has moved to the fringes of the public debate is the people in charge launched a culture war against the people back in the Bush years. That is when the great shift in media focus started. Bush became Hitler and the Left reorganized itself around the great crusade against fascism. This academic psychosis started to spill into the retail politics of the Left. By fascism they mean anything and anyone that opposes the grab bag of incoherent beliefs now called the Left.
The great leaving alone of the economy was also made possible by the fact that the system seemed to be on autopilot. The mortgage meltdown of 2008 did not result in bread lines or mass unemployment. The accounting scandals from the prior decade had no impact on daily life. We have had several market crashes over the last twenty years and no traders have leaped from their office windows. Like war, the gyrations of the economy have been “made for television” events.
The truth is the economy is something people care about and it is something they can know about without the media. If you are a Dirt Person, you have been watching your food bill tick up over the last year or so. You have chatted about this with people at work and with friends at parties. Food inflation is becoming a feature of life. Now gas prices are starting to creep into the conversation. The solons in the mass media may not notice it, but everyone else sees it when they gas up.
The last time inflation was a thing, Reagan was going around the country while running for president, saying, “Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” This sounds way over the top, but it resonated with people because at one level he was right. Crime is about social trust and the crime of inflation robs the people of their trust in the basic functioning of society. Inflation puts everything about economic life up for grabs.
Compounding things now is the fact that the core demographic responsible for there being an economy has lost all trust in the government. The inflation numbers recently posted were met with scornful laughs. Everyone knows they are under-gunning the inflation numbers, because these are people who have lied about everything for the last decade or more. The same people who wear ceremonial face gear and lie about the Covid problem are now reporting seven percent inflation. Right.
This is why inflation should be the number one topic on people’s minds as we proceed through the long dark winter Biden has inflicted on us. Even the fake numbers the government released say that something must be done. The Fed has committed to tightening the money supply starting in March. History makes clear this will result in a recession and an uptick in unemployment. Put another way, the bad news on the economy is just getting started.
How will the public respond to the first real recession in decades? How will they respond to the rambling about it by a geriatric old fool who can barely put two sentences together? How will Americans respond to the stream of managerial sociopaths that will be sent out to insult our intelligence? How will the media respond? They have been the Greek chorus for the system for so long, are they even capable of dealing with a practical issue at this point?
This long vacation from reality that our ruling class has enjoyed since the end of the Cold War is about to end. They can stick to whatever theories they remember from their grad-school seminar on diversity and equity but the reality of the human condition has not changed. The ruling class of any society is responsible for the general welfare of the people in that society. When they fail, they are held accountable. This is an immutable law of human organization that never goes away.
This is why the situation in Canada bears watching. Trudeau is a simpleton who has no business being in charge of anything. Contrary to the old chestnuts about democracy, he is not the ruler the people deserve. He reflects the competence of the ruling class that installed him in office. The people who thought this feckless pansy was right for the job are so far proving to be incapable of managing this trucker crisis. They have made Canada the first English speaking dictatorship.
The American people are far more docile and subservient than Canadians, but until a few weeks ago people assumed the Canadians were a beaten people. It turns out that there is still some life left in Canadians, which suggests there may be a flicker of life left in Americans as well. Put enough pressure on people and they will find the courage to rebel against their masters. Inflation, recession and widescale unrest is the sort of pressure Americans may need to find their spine again.
The holiday from reality is over and we are about to enter into a period in which serious topics with real meaning return to the fore. The reckless sissies and addle minded old fools who have been playing make believe for the last few decades will now have to face a real crisis. Similarly, a lethargic and prostrate people will now have to remember how to stand up for themselves again. It will not be long before the last few years of the culture war seem like a golden age of tranquility.
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The storm clouds may become mushroom clouds if we don’t stop playing Russian Roulette with Putin. The US needs to get out of an obsolete NATO and bring the troops home before next Christmas.
Does the acronym “Nazi” mean “Not A Zombie Idiot” these days?
Someone may have already said this, but “T-34” is a pretty great movie if anyone could use a decent 2 hour distraction from bread and circus.
You could do a double Russian tank film features with, White Tiger:
Heck, do a triple feature with the outstanding The Beast from 1988:
The best part of the whole thing is that the Government and the Media — if there’s really any difference at this point, and I doubt it — have decided to dox the people who donated to the trucker convoy, thanks to a “hack” by a self-declared “cyberterrorist.”
In other words, the Government and the Media (again, if that’s not redundant) are proceeding on the assumption that when you take away all means of nonviolent protest, the result will be…. total compliance, because what else could they possibly do?
It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see how it works out for them.
There is a Saint Petersburg 1905 vibe to all this, with the role of Father Gapon played by the truckers. A final act of sincere loyalty from the people, met by guns and cavalry.
Not only is there no difference between the federal government and the media, there’s no difference between those two entities plus Wall Street, academia and Hollywood. The combination of those five instruments constitute the core of Blackistan’s anti-white power structure.
I have to say this in the most brotherly way possible: I love you man.
This is the most resolved thing I’ve read in quite a while. I know things are going to get worse before they get better, but this comes across as the pep talk we all need at this point.
Reading and listening to Z man has lifted my spirit a few times. Sometimes he touches on a subject that’s deeply concerning to me that absolutely no one has reported. Then I read Z man discuss the subject and why it’s not getting any attention, and see comments and there’s many like myself out there, maybe we’re a majority.
He’s a treasure
What will the ripple effects be for all of the countries downstream of the consumer driven US economy when the (inevitable) crash occurs?
Peruse the clothing rack at the local work apparel store and notice how the “American” brands; Wrangler, Carhartt or Dickies to name a few, are all made in foreign countries. Mexico, India, China (of course), and other locations most Americans couldn’t find on a map. These clothes aren’t cheap either. $90 vests, $50-70 jeans and work shirts.
My point is that when the demand or ability to afford these items go down, what will the effects be across the globe? Could we be looking at the worldwide depression many predict?
Opposing the force of higher prices driving down demand, is poorer quality products forcing us to replace those products more often. Maybe we’ll go back to when granny ironed patches onto our thread bare clothes, the elbows and knees. Products fail by design, or become obsolete. Time to replace your cell phone yet?
I hear echoes of this older prediction: “”And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:”
Being only 12 years in right wing politics, I still usually get upset over black-pilling, even though I figured out long ago that’s how righty gets himself fired up.
After scanning the comments, I almost tapped a man-up rant but caught myself this time. Level up lol.
So Potato Head guaranteed a Russian invasion of Ukraine today and nothing happened. In response, the Russia Foreign Ministry spokeswoman requested that the US State Department inform them (i.e. Russia) of all the future dates when the invasion is supposed to occur so that they can plan employee vacations accordingly. This is beyond ridicule and demonstrates just how impotent the US has become. Biden is a laughingstock worldwide. I am now truly ashamed to be identified as an American. How far we have fallen.
I think this will be spun as quite the opposite, an in fact will go down in the history books as one of Biden’s greatest triumphs.
The intelligence was spot on, the Russians were all set to invade, but it was only through the Biden administration’s force of will, superior diplomatic skills, and brinksmanship that war was averted. They’ll be painting this as the second coming of the Cuban missile crisis soon, mark my words.
Absolutely. The Biden media ginned up a virtual (fantasy) war, and when nothing happens, will gin up a virtual fantasy victory. They’ll have a media “win” for the midterms.
That both are true at the same time is HONK.
It’s fitting you mentioned the Cuban Missile Crisis as it was resolved by a secret deal with the Soviets that made Kennedy look like he won publicly, even though a trade was made — their missiles for ours. I suspect the same is going on here. I got that feeling when the Ukrainian ambassador started making statements to the affect that Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO and Western puppets had to immediately come out and contradict that statement to save face; then add Biden contradicting himself with his tough guy rhetoric after previously signalling he’d do little about the situation. It’s just a way for the West to save face after backing down. They made a deal and the Russians can’t talk about it. Like Kennedy, our leaders come out and pretend they won when they didn’t, not really.
There is no amount of spin that will make the dementia joe look like anything other than he is. It’s as disgustingly plain as the stinking load in his pants. More pathetic and contemptible by far than Petain since he never accomplished anything before his brain turned to mush and he was installed as the face of globo-homo. Biden’s only triumphs involve waking up another day because he’s so embarrassing they must be thinking about giving him the pillow.
as an ongoing student of military history- especially Napoleon’s 1812 invasion & Operation Barbarossa- think it safe to say Putin’s not going in. It’s now mid-February & there is precious little campaigning time before the onset of the notorious Russian “rasputitsa” or rainy/wet season. This happens twice a year in spring & autumn & whether it be armies on foot or armored vehicles unpaved roads & the countryside would be churned into a morass of mud. Russian mud is legendary & hampered Wehrmacht efforts considerably. The time for active campaigning is late spring/early summer or after the ground is frozen hard. Moreover, an invasion would require immense logistical support which would come from staging areas which would be easily detected via satellite imagery. Has anyone seen evidence of these from the Pentagon/DoD? I haven’t which leads me to believe all the hysteria over a Russian invasion is nothing but empty histrionics.
If I’m wrong I’ll come back here & eat crow, but I don’t think so.
Putin is as likely to invade the Ukraine as I am.
Its embarrassing that grown adults are taking this seriously.
He must be loving how easy this is. It’s like taunting a barking dog at the end of its rope.
Putin has gotten what he needs for the cost of some diesel and useful training time. 1)there will be no Ukraine membership in NATO—members too fractured. 2) Germany will vote for natgas, 3) I’d rate 50/50 there is a detente soon with Ukraine 4) he’s made Biden/US look hysterical and ridiculous 5) created more upward price pressure on oil prices. Win all around.
In the long run, Russia wants to be a part of Europe and that means having good relations with France and Germany, both of whom want normal relations with Russia. Putin has made it easier for both to resist the pressure of Washington, which means the next time both can be more assertive.
Zelensky is learning that the worst partner on earth is America. I expect him to make a strong pivot back toward Moscow in an effort to save himself.
If Blackistan is cut out of the European picture, there may still be some hope for western civilization.
Nord Stream 2 will cement that relationship. Natural gas for Euros, which Russia will (mostly) turn around and buy goods from Germany and France.
The Germans will use that gas to stay warm in the winter and power their economy. Can the Americans offer something as vital as that. No way.
Also, that close relationship will make the entire point of NATO a farce. Why are Germany and France in an alliance dedicated to fighting Russia when Russia is a close trading partner that provide them with the means to literally stay warm in the winter.
The Americans understand (or should understand) that Nord Stream 2 and closer ties to Russia dramatically undermine their relationship with Europe. They don’t want to give that up.
That is largely my read. The permanent foreign policy establishment is trapped in the last century. Nord Stream 2 is finished and full of gas. There is no stopping it. The fact is closer economic integration is good for both Russia and Germans and they know it. This terrifies the yesterday men in the foreign policy establishment.
Russia is loaded with natural resources and close to Europe. Germany is an industrial powerhouse that needs natural resources. Russia needs Europe’s industrial production.
Germany and Russia have a 1,500 history. Not always great but a lot of cultural ties. There’s simply no way that the Americans can stop such a natural relationship.
Also, don’t underestimate the fact that the gas is being sold in Euros. Russia and China desperately want to break the dollar’s lock on energy. Just even part of the world’s oil and natural gas being sold in other currencies severely weakens U.S. power.
The dollar will remain the interstate highway system of the global economy, but opening even a few backroads that let you get from point A to point B is huge. Right now, the Americans control the only road. Those back roads mean that while the Americans can slow you down, they can’t stop you.
Tucker passed a pearl last night, saying offhandedly, “Biden runs Ukraine”. The vision of Biden as “Caudillo of Ukraine” is just priceless. Realistically, there is no other conclusion one can come to, when Burisma Bucks were given directly to Biden’s son (whose only expertise is nincompooperie).
It makes Tucker’s tedious “democracy is good” long game bearable in order to front these delicious truth bombs.
I can’t recall who said it but “The only thing worse than being America’s enemy is being its friend” rings truer with each passing day.
Zelensky’s problem are the Nazi militias nipping at his heels. They’ve stormed Kiev before and will do it again if he’s to cozy with the Russians.
Perhaps it would be best to let the Nazis loose against DNR and let them be wiped out by the East Ukrainians, with a little help from the Russians, then Ukraine might get a chance to go back to being a real country.
This has been a huge win for Putin largely because the United States’ Ruling Class is batshit crazy and played down to everyone’s expectations. We could see imperial bases expelled from Europe in the near-term.
Great! Hopefully we can then stop wasting money on them. There has to be SOME benefit to abandoning the Empire.
I can’t imagine what it must be like to be in the military now. Who, in their right mind, would be willing to risk his life in service to the brain-dead bozo in the White House? Soon there will be no alphas left in uniform and we really will be at risk of a major defeat if challenged militarily. Perhaps that type of disaster will be necessary as a means of spurring Normie to put down his latte, turn off the idiot box, and get his fat ass up off the couch.
Well, it helps that most enlistees aren’t in combat units.
Many who are in combat positions — special forces, fighter pilots — are White male and lean republican. Imagine being told you have to die on behalf of a racist who called you names, claimed your people’s “supremacy” is the nation’s number one threat, donated to bail out racist BLM rioters who burned down a police station in Minneapolis, renamed your bases and tore down your statues, and whose government discriminates against your people in job hiring and college admissions. How many people would willingly die for that?
We’re gonna find out, aren’t we. Magic 8 ball says there will be more depth perception issues with carrier landings in the future.
Take heart, homie. We no longer live in America; we live in Blackistan. And the incompetence, idiocy and madness on display in our daily life is precisely what one would expect from a country whose primary purpose is to deify the stupidest, most violent, dysfunctional, hideous and obnoxious subset of the populace.
I like black people on a personal one-on-one level, and have some good black friends, but that doesn’t mean I want them in charge of the country. They aren’t equipped for it and they honestly stink at running things. It is so hard today just to be simply honest like that, that you can LIKE people while at the same time recognizing their strengths and weaknesses. Blacks are so deified that any thoughts like this are like a modern day heresy or sacrilege.
But it brings to mind what I think is one of the funniest jokes or honest comical assessments I have ever heard:
Heaven is where the police are British,
the chefs Italian,
the mechanics German,
the lovers French,
and it’s all organized by the Swiss.
Hell is where the police are German,
the chefs are British,
the mechanics French,
the lovers Swiss,
and it is all organized by the Italians.
But God Forbid !!!! We ever make a joke like this about blacks!!!! The skies will breathe down fire on us if we do!!
The Simpsons used to satirize every group imaginable, except one…
Come to think of it, perhaps two. I don’t remember them ever poking fun at the Finkels.
Family Guy did that once and the episode was banned.
No comment on Americans?
Your map’s fucked up, you’re in jewistan.
“The American people are far more docile and subservient than Canadians”
Nope. The other way around–but not by much.
It infuriates me – De Santis is on the blower with Biden and the old bugger starts reading him the riot act – and De Santis tells him (rightfully) to FOAD.
NOT ONE Canadian conservative has made a peep about the abuses and incompetency of the Turdo regime. In fact, they are just as afraid of the truckers as the liberals are.
The reason you are seeing this last minute courage is that 2/3 of the country are looking at economic collapse. We are a couple swirls further down the leftist toilet than you Yanks are, and things are much more dire for us than they are for you. It’s obvious that Turdo has to go, but there is no one to replace him with. All the cucks are just as pozzed and stupid as Turdo is. Things are going to go straight downhill from here.
Next time you need a PM, someone who’s not on Klaus Schwab’s speed dial would be a start.
Canadian politics still allows for a wider array of opinion than America. Plenty of people commented how there could never be an American Zemmour because someone explicitly acknowledging whites as a group with interests would cause a complete US media blackout/demonization and deep state attacks.
Canada also has something that would never be allowed in the US. There could never be an American Bloc Quebecois. No referendum, no CAQ or PQ, no nationhood. If a state party tried passing bill 21 or a charter of values the politicians would have civil rights laws used against them. Corporations would boycott the state. Referendum associated people would be imprisoned for treason.
On every fundamental issues, Republicans and Democrats are in lock step. No dissent allowed. They can argue about who is enforcing the great post war consensus better, thats it.
Is there a Canadian Zemmour in mainstream politics?
No. Zemmour is the only one in western euro or anglo politics saying those things. It has been decades since anyone else did this. Not Pat. Not Duke. None of them made this case.
Canadian politics still allows for things like bill 21. Which is far outside the very narrow US overton window.
I find a sort of “underpants gnome” quality to rooting for disaster. When there is a disaster that discredits the ruling regime, it does not always follow that the religion and morality of that ruling regime are discarded.
What is the action plan? The left will have one.
What should we DO?
Collapse and rebirth/resurrection is a perpetually recycled trope.
Those that we allowed to seize control over us, if wise, will never want to loose that control. Time is on their side, the facts upon the ground are going in their direction. And the small area between Syria and Egypt depends upon their big dumb bully. England was their bully and they haven’t killed them all off, just vanquished them.
I suppose the overall future will not jump from technicolor to black but gradually dimmer, the colors fading, graying into a gradual brownout. Energy, and thus everything, will get more expensive and less available. More doing without. We as a people will be more and more squashed and put upon. The wealth of Americans will be drained into the hands of foreigners. They will be owners and we will be unowners.
Meanwhile: I suggest building yourself into a leader. Do it in a way which benefits you and those around you now, preparing for a range of situations. Try to double duty and overlap to extract more from less. Acquire real leadership skills. Suggest activities to those in your sphere.
A) You should have an real understanding of whats happening and what to do in situations.
B) Demonstrate general competence so that in any event people will tend to look to you for what to do. Be bringing resources toward the folks around you. Minimize resource going away.
Here and there I explain things to new people I organically encounter. Yesterday I explained who the media hides and highlights in regards to race and crime. These is a good thing because it has a predictive aspect, they can verify my assertion via examining future events.
That would be “lose control,” not “loose.”
You spelled everything else correctly. What is it with so many intelligent people making this spelling error and this error alone?
Maybe you should schedule a parent/teacher conference with his mom.
they wouldn’t want to loosen the rains, now would they.
From where I’m sitting it looks like the US has been vanquished.
Historically the French have been the champions of your favorite country.
Your people are good at spelling; and not much else.
The Canadian trucker convoy is the Archduke Ferdinand WWI moment for WWIII.
– Instead of a hot summer day in a southern capital whose people are balkanized from wars and migrations over centuries, it’s a cold winter day in one of the coldest world capitals in a country newly colonized through the active peaceful import of invaders from far away foreign lands with very different beliefs and cultures….
– Instead of a war between nations and governments, it will be a war within nations where worldwide governments unite in response.
The question will be what is the victor’s story?
– Will it be the brave Canadians who sacrificed all against a tyrannical government -or-
– Will it be that a seditious set of rebels where worldwide government came together to crush and bring on the new age of modern man…
Some of us will live to see which future narrative wins out, many of us will not.
It’s the first political-demographic crisis in the modern West, I believe. The “political pendulum” is a white man’s invention and does not swing back when it’s weighted down with foreigners.
Trudeau won the election exclusively due to non-white immigrants and their descendants living in the large metros of Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. These 3 areas + a few other seats are enough for him to have full control as he has now. The leftist “opposition” party is run by a turban guy that completely goes along with Trudeau. Yes, there are white liberals. But without the millions of imports they don’t outnumber the normal white people who don’t want endless lockdowns and frozen bank accounts.
Non-whites don’t like lockdowns either but it’s much better than living in India or Africa. Plus their priorities are open borders so they can bring in their thousands of “family” members, and welfare, so their entire “family” can access our healthcare system. And the Conservatives are rayciss (not that they are real opposition anyways). Trudeau delivers what they want so they will keep voting Trudeau and keep growing in numbers.
So we have the votes to install Trudeau, yet the Trudeau agenda is unacceptable to most white people, especially to Christians and those in rural areas. This results in unrest. The ruling class no longer even pretends to represent those interests, since they don’t actually need any white voters to win. This seems like a path to balkanization but it’s hard to say what will happen. They are working hard to force imports into every small town and medium sized city to tilt the electorate.
” And that’s the way it is” (for those of you old enough to remember W. Cronkite sign off)
I prefer “I’m Paul Harvey….good day!”
I see Canada has announced it is to ramp up its immigration.
Another 1.3 million over the next 3 years.
On top of the 1.8 million backlog it currently has.
Speaking of the white man’s inventions, Steve Sailer has just corrected Brandon’s new Fed nominee’s analysis of white versus black patents over time:
Don’t miss the graph at the end!
Academia. Got to love the integrity.
“It’s the first political-demographic crisis in the modern West”
Is the trucker protest about immigration and white replacement/disempowerment under the surface or is it just about covid restrictions?
All Justine had to do to to gain some *instant* good will and diffuse the situation was to pull up her best polka dot socks and sashay into the mix saying, “Well I understand you people have some grievances and I’m here to listen”. Then do absolutely NOTHING as if she never heard a word. Thing is, she had no intention of even appearing to entertain ANY grievances – that wasn’t even a consideration.
Can’t unsee the Five Eyes partners behaving badly, one by one.
Down vote was a mistake
Sharp take. White leftists don’t give a tinker’s damn if they can suppress BadWhites with a shaky coalition with non-Whites, but it is indeed a recipe for constant turmoil. It will get worse but something has to give and it is better to happen while the demographics still favor Whites.
I came upon this quote in a book review, which perfectly sums up the state of journalism today: “Once a tool to comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable, today American journalism comforts the comfortable, speaks power to truth, and insists on an orthodoxy that protects the interests of the elites in the language of a culture war whose burden is given to the working class to bear.”
The inflation numbers recently posted were met with scornful laughs.
Those and the employment numbers which were so “fortified” that everyone just rolled their eyes.
It needs to be pointed out again that the injuries of ’08 were never resolved. For instance the bad mortgage debt, which the Fed is still buying to this day, sits out there like land mind waiting to be stepped on. The money printing was supposed to cushion the blow and spread the pain out, but instead the government got up and started running on it right away.
Speaking of the economy: Biden’s nominee for Fed chief is an innumerate Black woman:
Biden is nominating no one, as we are all aware.
Whoever it is just pissing on everyone now for the hell of it.
They could be trolling. Appointing a black woman and then watching the economy fall apart immediately after would only confirm every racist belief about the melanin-endowed that has ever been uttered.
They’d just claim that racists throughout the country were purposely sabotaging the economy to make her look bad.
Sort of like sending out blacks to burn down cities, or getting the mentally ill to cling to their masks.
It’s almost as if tptb are winking to the reactionaries.
I don’t think it’s a trap, but that’s just, like, my opinion, man.
Thanks for bringing this up. As to the economy and debt, we’ve reached the endgame in terms of pain avoidance. Over the past 40 years, we’ve slowly cornered ourselves but managed to push the consequences down the road.
Well, the road is ending.
Over the next decade, the U.S. (and the rest of the developed world) will need to deal with several problems:
1. Low real economic growth
– High debt (both public and private), low increase in new workers and low quality new workers almost ensure very low real GDP growth. The only thing that can save us is some miracle new technology that increase productivity which is unlikely but not impossible.
2. Low investment returns
– Bonds are negative yielding. Stocks and commercial real estate are expensive. Low real returns are baked into the pie. No way to avoid it.
3. Increasing government debt on an already high level of debt
– Unless you crank up inflation to the high heavens, annual deficits will be higher than nominal GDP growth. Therefore, our already 125% of debt to GDP will move higher, slowly at times and dramatically during recessions.
We are not Japan. We can’t handle 250% govt debt to GDP. Japan runs a huge trade surplus, is a creditor nation and has a huge corporate and household savings rate to soak up govt debt. We have a huge trade deficit, are debtor nation and have very little savings.
We will have a stagnate economy where asset prices don’t do much and the government continues down a death spiral of debt.
(Btw, it’s over for the govt and debt. It’s too late to raise taxes and cut spending. That can work in low-debt environments but not with debt and government spending as a % of GDP this high. Raising taxes and cutting spending would crush the economy, which, ironically, would make the debt to GDP ratio worse because GDP would be falling faster that the debt, which is what always happens when you impose austerity on countries with high debt loads.)
My best guess for the next decade is a combination of stagflation and financial repression. The government needs to run inflation hot to inflate away the debt but needs to keep interest rates well below inflation to afford the debt payments. I’m not saying constant inflation, probably something like we’re seeing now. Inflation runs hot for a year or so, the fed clamps down, the economy sputters, you have a bit of fiscal stimulus which causes inflation and high nominal GDP growth. Rinse and repeat until debt to GDP gets back to 80% to 90%.
That’s at least a plausible scenario. Keeping inflation down at ~2% with 1.5% real GDP growth with ever increasing debt (both public and private) combined with positive interest rates and low asset returns simply isn’t feasible. The debt burden would slowly kill economic growth and, eventually, the debt would collapse on itself. We’d have a depression.
You can only get rid of debt in three ways:
1. Pay it off
– Impossible because it would take the economy and actually increase debt to GDP (because GDP is falling faster than the debt) and lead to a depression.
– Well, that’s a depression as well.
3. Inflate it away (if you can print your own currency)
– This has been the choice every single time in history because it’s the only chance for the rulers to stay in power. A depression hits fast and hard. Stagflation is a slow burn.
The time for pain avoidance for the economy and the debt load has passed. The consequences are hitting and will continue to hit.
It would be painful no matter what, even if the debt load was lower. The problem isn’t really the debt. If we were spending all this debt on productive assets, it wouldn’t matter at all. The problem with our debt was we borrowed money to buy depreciating consumer goods.
Despite the alleged productivity gains of the last 40 years, we are FAR less productive than we used to be. All those factories in China making our consumer goods, they didn’t build the machinery. The machinery was shipped from US factories to Chinese factories.
Had we spent all the borrowed money on good public education and new machinery, the increase in production would more than pay the interest and principle on that debt. While we did spend a decent portion of it on education, it was also blown money because the kids didn’t learn anything.
All true. If we were a united people, we’d find our way out of this. Wouldn’t be fun, but it could be done.
That’s the part that I didn’t mention. We have all those structural problems and zero unity. Those three things combined with a multi-racial society that hates the people upon which the society was based is a recipe for disaster.
I believe this terrifying fact (diverse society) is the most concerning of all. While things are going well (and they still are, right now), how much crime and disunity and rioting is there? Imagine when times get actually bad. Whoa to anyone caught near diverse areas, because there is no doubt that The Powers That Be will point the finger straight at the White Devil as the source of the evil.
The possible eventual devolution of this society will be unprecedented because of the diversity. Truly terrifying stuff
It seems like the last time we heard serious debt talk was when Ross Perot ran for president. Remember the homemade charts and talk of hard work and sacrifice to fix the problem on Larry King’s show?
and when he was giving a speech to a black audience he said “you people” and you could just hear his campaign hitting the floor with a thud..
All the research shows that govt debt starts to matter when it gets above ~90% of GDP, especially if you run a trade deficit.
I’ll admit that people have been talking about govt debt forever and nothing ever happened. Maybe that will be the case here as well. But the fact is that debt does matter at some point.
Right now bond holders are paying the price with negative rates. If they refuse to do that, the fed would need to step in and buy the bonds. That’s when we become Argentina.
Also, even if public debt doesn’t matter (and it does at a certain level), private debt does matter. No one doubts that. Well, household and non-financial business debt are just shy of their all-time high from back in 2007.
The same is true all around the world. We’re swimming in debt – both public and private. That will reduce economic growth. Low growth and high debt are a recipe for disaster.
The problem is bonds are “low risk” and especially relative to other assets. Bonds are at historic high prices (low or negative interest) because so many people want to hold cash because of the deflation risks. At least that is how I understand it. Plus, the fed only needs to nibble at the edges, because that is the nature of market prices (a 1% difference in supply and demand can cause huge price moves which affect all of that asset, like a stock)
Also, in terms of debt to GDP, there really isn’t any empirical research on it. There has never been a nation in modern history who could print fiat money that had worldwide support. We are the only world reserve currency with fiat money. The last world empire was Britain, who used the gold standard. We ourselves were on a gold standard of some form or other up until the early 70s. What would happen to another country’s currency isn’t necessarily what would happen to ours under similar circumstances.
In 2008/2009 when the great recession happened, the USD went from low 70s to high 90s and beyond, even breaking a hundred. Gold, meanwhile collapsed from like 900 dollars down to around 500. This was the “flight to safety” out of stocks and into bonds and Dollars. We went into a steep recession and the Dollar increased in value, by a lot. This also has the “happy” coincidence of lowering interest rates.
Not sure it plays the same this time. The Fed has nearly exhausted its ammo. And our debt/GDP ratio is radically worse. The ECB is in similar circumstances. I’ve gone so far as to put protective shorts on the UST. Never did that before.
We are at the point now where return of principal is more important than return on principal.
People have forgotten this simple thing.
The are no financial safe havens.
“The problem is bonds are “low risk””
Bonds are not always low risk. Look at real returns of British bonds after WWII or American bonds in the 1970s.
Bonds are good for deflation, but they are very risky in inflationary environments, especially if the government is imposing financial repression.
“Also, in terms of debt to GDP, there really isn’t any empirical research on it.”
Actually, there’s quite a bit of research on it and it all reaches the same conclusion. Check out this piece from Lacy Hunt. Go down to page 4, where he lists several studies showing that high govt debt to GDP is detrimental to growth.
(Btw, Hunt believes that deflation – not inflation – is the big danger. He could be right, just depends on how the govt responds to the debt problem.)
In the short run, yes, if you have a recession or risk situation, people will run to the dollar. It’s still the best big currency out there. Also, when I say that the U.S. might try and inflate away its debt, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it falls relative to other currencies. If they do the same thing, it’ll be fine, at least compared to other currencies, not so much against hard assets.
Regarding gold, it was ~$650 at the beginning of 2007. It was ~$950 in the summer of 2009. The reason that it sold off in the fall of 2008 was because of a liquidity crunch. Banks, hedge funds, etc., needed cash so they sold the most liquid asset that wasn’t on a fire sale – gold – to get those dollars. You saw the same thing in March 2020 when safe assets – treasuries and gold – briefly traded down. It was because people were selling their best assets – ones where they wouldn’t lock in their losses – to get cash.
Also, I’d argue that we’ve already seen a devaluing of the dollar and other currencies. Certainly for the past two years (and really the past decade), investors have been moving out of any currency and into assets, particularly stocks and real estate. This has bid up their price but people will accept it because they believe that those assets are still a better deal than cash or cash equivalents.
@citizen I agree with most of your reply except for one thing…. When I said there wasn’t empirical research on debt to GDP , I meant that there isn’t any other currency that is similar to the Dollar because the Dollar is the world reserve currency. Since no other nation in recent history has had a fiat based world reserve currency, there are simply no examples to study. The reserve currency status gives the USD special attributes.
I might be wrong, but I don’t think any other central bank could print the way we print.
Also, gov bonds are low risk in that you will get your principal back. With corporate bonds, the bond holders, I believe, have the highest legal claim on the assets.
But I do not disagree that (real) negative interest rates, which rule today is a big risk. As we speak, the 5 year US treasury has a 1.93% rate. That’s like negative 5% even by the BS government numbers. I think the ECB has had nominal negative interest for years now.
True, we are the reserve currency, but debt is debt. Printing dollars is simply a form of partial default. Sure, we get to export some of the inflation caused by our printing.
Regardless, the main problem with the debt is that service grinds you down. Right now, that’s not an issue since interest rates are so low. But the US doesn’t have capital controls so the govt is reliant on investors buying treasuries at deeply negative rates. Maybe that continues, maybe it doesn’t.
If rates normalize, the deficits get real large, real quick.
High debt (public or private) to GDP is by definition a sign of malinvestment. You invested money in something that didn’t increase your income by more than the cost of the debt. If you had, your debt to GDP wouldn’t have gone up.
You wasted resources. That will always reduce your future economic output. No way to avoid that. Printing dollars doesn’t change that fact. We wasted resources on unproductive investments – like sending black people to college or welfare.
Perhaps being the reserve currency allows us to spread the pain of our malinvestment to others around the world, but that act will weaken our reserve currency status. Indeed, after the Great Financial Crisis, foreign central banks more or less stopped buying more treasuries. China and Japan started using their dollars from trade surpluses to buy things instead of treasuries.
There’s no free lunch.
You’re maybe a touch optimistic. Inflation is still a tax and robs from the economy to feed the beast, the more inflation, the weaker the economy, the less tax revenue, rinse-lather-repeat until the country is both broke and has a worthless currency. As well your best guess, while still the most likely, isn’t guaranteed since the system is very unstable.
Piggybacking, this quote from an article over at ZH was telling:The reality is hiking interest rates 1 or 2 percent over the next year or two is not a tight monetary policy and it will do little nothing to get ahead of the inflation curve. Peter Schiff made this point in a recent interview on Fox Business. Keep in mind, Paul Volker had to raise rates to 20% in the early 1980s to tame the inflation of the 1970s. Inflation is every bit as high today if measured honestly.
2% would royally crash the economy, 20% would wring every bit of bad debt out of the system (and then some) and would, at least, destabilize the government (we’ve forgotten, but people really hated Reagan for a spell there).
The 10-year is at ~2%. The 2-year is ~1.5%. That means that the fed has ~50 basis points (0.5%) before it inverts the yield curve.
Given an inverted yield curve has always led to recession, I’ll be interested to see if they go down that path. Personally, I don’t think that they need to. The economy is slowing, which will bring down inflation on its own.
Regardless, the fed is trapped. Raise rates to fight inflation and you tank the economy because of the debt. Keep rates low and inflation gets voters mad (and maybe still tanks the economy). Low rates also cause other problems, not least of which is pushing people, businesses and the govt to keep growing the debt.
Stagflation is also a possibility. This was the dilemma of the 1970’s. Different causes than today, but the possibility is still there. That said, the Fed is waiting for the political class to decide if they want inflation/stagflation or a short steep recession to clean up the money supply. That means we get the 50 basis point bump, but then another round of public debate about where to go next.
The trouble Washington has is there may not be both a Volker and a Reagan willing to do what needs to be done. Volker was a serious man who was willing to piss off the pols to tame inflation. Reagan was smart enough to provide political cover in order to reap the rewards.
Stagflation/financial repression is my bet for the next decade. It’s the most politically palatable way to deal with the debt.
That said, the fed brought out that playbook and it hasn’t gone very well. The public really hates inflation, so now the fed is getting pressured by Biden’s handlers to crush it.
But, as you say, crushing inflation will tank the economy. One thing that is dramatically different today compared to the 1970s is the debt level. When Volker – who was a Mensch – started raising rates, total debt (household, non-financial business and govt) was ~130% of GDP. Today, it’s ~270%.
Volker could get away will a lot higher rate hikes. The economy today is far more financialized. It can’t take much in terms of rate hikes. And we don’t have politicians willing to take the pain.
As I said, we’re trapped.
Funny story about Volker. The guy raised the fed rate by a full percentage . . . on a Saturday. Didn’t warn anyone. Just came in the office on a Saturday and told everyone that rates were going up a full point on Monday. Brass balls.
“ That said, the Fed is waiting for the political class to decide if they want inflation/stagflation or a short steep recession to clean up the money supply.”
Schumer and Pelosi getting together on a ban on public officials trading stocks was the bat signal, in case it wasn’t obvious.
Volker is/was a longtime personal hero of mine. The absolute opposite of Greenspan, who lived for the DC cocktail party circuit and the adulation of the fawning midwit nincompoops of the media. Volker never went to parties and didn’t care what idiots thought of him (or of anything). Just a stolid German Lutheran who knew his job and his duty.
Paul was a close friend of the father of a spook that tried to steal a business of mine for the control freaks commonly criticized here. One story he related to me was that Paul passed out and threw up in his bed, but I never heard if there was any other funny business. I didn’t ask.
Spook family was low-key crypto Ukrainian-extraction Cohen with a fresh Scottish surname.
All it takes is a little hardship and the ruling class morality plays immediately wear off. The stomach saying “I need food” is a far stronger motivator than being told “you are a racist” by some noodle armed idiot.
We’ve seen this with the truckers protest. Trudeau immediately pulled out the “racist” card and it flopped. Then the media started saying that the protestors were “Nazis” – also a flop. There have been several other outrage stories in the media that people just ignore. Truckers just sit there and honk. I say “end all mandates” and don’t even acknowledge accusations of Nazism or racism. The brain is saying “I need a job to make money and get food” and it’s overridden any moral accusations or fear of punishment. The truth is that even before this protest, inflation was insane here and a house costs 1M+ in any city center. Who cares what they say? 100k ticket of clown money? Gotta eat.
The media can ignore inflation all they want, but it doesn’t matter. Once the stomach starts saying “I need food” it doesn’t matter what you are told. You will either get the necessary food and provisions or you will die.
In a way I think a little hardship is good. People are realizing the importance of social and community networks over “voting” and grilling. The harsh eyes that you see in old photos are coming back, and most of the protestors have a steely edge to their demeanor. The old accusations of moral infractions and the false left-right political paradigm seem meaningless.
The retard Trudeau is escalating and giving them even less to lose (we will steal your truck – ok guess I’m really never leaving then).
We’ve been spoiled rotten since the Boomer generation. We’re not even close to starving yet and a little bit of common sense is returning. Can only imagine how harsh and sharp the white man can really be.
The crisis so far has shown us that libertarian-economic explanations of What’s Happening are always wrong.
In the present stage, we’ll find that all moral-conservative variations of “We’ve become spoiled and soft, but once we’re broke and starving we’ll awaken again” are also wrong. We could observe this in history already, if we wanted to. (We don’t.) Starving the kulaks only makes them starve; they neither join the revolution nor rise to counter it. Bread and circuses, present or absent, account for nothing.
Having realized, as we must, that “People get what they deserve (or incentivize, at least)” is literally never true, under any circumstances however extreme, except by accident, because human behavior is only ever *barely* rational, and fully outside reason when *pushed*—then what? What’s our story?
How many graves do we shout “soft men!” into to awaken Our People? If it’s rational, it’s calculable.
Well – that is yet another win in this. Consider: the props were all in place with backups: The swastika flag guys were there, the guys with the Stars And Bars were on backup – and the media was poised, ready to catch all the action.
Nobody cared. The truckers had bouncy castles for the kids, shared coffee with the cops, and when the media was forced to go to them for their side of the story – they were ignored. My heart soared when the fags at the Toronto Star wailed that excluding the media from such events was A DANGER TO OUR DEMOCRACY!
Full blown dissidents couldn’t have done this one any better. Turdo is playing the domestic terrorist card now and freezing bank accounts – and the people are seeing govt over reach and oppression.
The best thing the truckers could do now is bail out. The mandates are being dropped – and no Turdo will have to focus on the economy… And this will be AWESOME. When they got elected, Turdo promised he’d balance Canada’s sinfully blown budgets ‘from the heart outwards’ and that by doing so, the budgets would magically ‘balance themselves’. (Yes, he said that in those words, and yes, he was serious). Interesting and exciting times are in the offing.
I’m not sure who said it: If you can’t find food, you have one problem. If you can find food, you have a thousand problems.
When the economy collapses, normie will be open for new ideas and new leadership. Not before. He likes being fed in his cage.
That’s what makes the truckers double dangerous for the regime. They are not only showing open defiance. They are threatening to crash the column the elite are sitting on, the economy.
They don’t sit in the same economy you do at present.
In some ways this fact seems to make them think that they always will be.
In the future they might feel the effects, but the average person will be metaphorically pushing wheel barrows full of cash to buy bread before that happens.
Right now smart dissidents are generals without an army. Economic collapse will open effective recruiting to dissidents. It will not hit the elite until they lose their grip on society.
The tameness of the people goes hand in hand with how narrow the overton window of politics is in a country.
America has some of the most constricted and policed political scenes you’ll see on the planet. Republicans and Democrats are clones of each other who argue about % points in tax rates.
Big right wing meenie MJT and super shitlib socialist AOC are so radical. Of course they both voted for Juneteenth and denounce white supremacy because is it even possible not to.
CBS anchor says vote stuff is racist and the republican buffoon guest spends his time saying demcorats are Jim Crow. American politics is spectacle for dumb drooling idiots and upper middle class professionals.
Its interesting that the 2 actresses you point out both came up through effectively a showbiz casting system run by large movers.
Its also interesting lots of those pushed out into the fore as the “extreme” are also women.
Its like watching the Monty Python skit on the Womens Institute amateur re-enactment of Pearl Harbour and about as real.
Don’t forget the “Camp on Blood Island”!
I don’t get the connection?
You mean the 50s film?
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Z Man writes: “The holiday from reality is over and we are about to enter into a period in which serious topics with real meaning return to the fore.”
His words stir the accelerationist in me but I can’t help but remember all the times I have been told that we are the precipice of a great change but then things continue as before…
For example, the national debt issue that Z Man mentions was supposed to instigate a great change in the culture in the 90s.
I hope that things change this time.
The evil Bill Gates got one thing right when he said people overestimate what will happen in one year, but underestimate what will happen in ten years.
“The American people are far more docile and subservient than Canadians, but until a few weeks ago people assumed the Canadians were a beaten people. It turns out that there is still some life left in Canadians, which suggests there may be a flicker of life left in Americans as well.”
Thank you for pointing this out. I have to say, I’ve been extremely disappointed – heartbroken – by the no-show by American (and Australian) truckers. The Teamsters boss recently came out and sided with the tyrants of the state, so I suppose those “docile and subservient” US truckers are going to do what they’re told. Or maybe they just don’t want to lose any income: gotta pay for wifey’s granite countertops and their lardass kids’ video game consoles. Pity, that.
At least the French truckers made a go of it before getting teargassed by the stormtroopers. Between them and the Yellow Vests it’s abundantly clear that for all the bluster and chest-beating of the American dissidents, they’re the real cheese-eating surrender monkeys. It’s one thing to bloviate online about one’s AR or Glock, but it’s another thing to actually go out and do something. I’ve been regularly going to protests to support our truckers, even in -30 degree weather, and I see my fellow Hosers waving not only Canadian flags, but also US and Aussie flags. Wish the latter two groups would finally step up.
Sorry Yanks and Aussies. Just tellin’ it like it is.
The US had release valve states that didn’t go along that much with the lunacy outside of the health care sector. This along with the Supreme Court shutdown of OSHA vax mandates led to the comfort that there could be a political solution.
Given Canada is blatantly a one-party state and their elites are even more ignorant and feckless than our ruling class, they were put in a far more untenable position.
An American who wants to get away from the Covid Karens moves to Florida or Texas or a midwest state and goes about his life.
A Canadian who wants to escape can go NOWHERE. Quite literally. Unvaccinated Canadians are barred from domestic train & air travel. They can no longer cross the US border either, even by car (*spits at both Biden and Trudeau*). Every province in the country went all-in this fall. Full vax passes, everywhere. All government workers, everywhere, mandated to jab or eventually get fired. Many private employers, same.
So when the trucker mandate dropped, the pressure that had been building boiled over and the trucks began to roll (I also think the Quebec announcement that they’d start taxing the unvaccinated played a role here – that dropped only a couple weeks before the trucker mandate).
I still don’t know how things are going to play out up here. I think our governments dearly WANTED to keep all of this Covid madness in place indefinitely – I’m talking mandated (bi)annual shots, vax passes, states of emergency, rule by decree. Suddenly provinces are falling over themselves to scrap them. I don’t know if they can be trusted; I wouldn’t rule out that, when the fall wave inevitably hits, it’ll all slam down on us again.
Whenever a Western country has objectively outperformed the US is any field there’s always a chorus of white Civnats explaining why akshually it shows the US is better.
American Exceptionalism is the final barrier to enlightenment.
Most states don’t even have mask mandates, let alone vaccine passports. If a US trucker can’t make it into Canada due to the vaccine mandate at the border it’s not a big deal, but Canadian truckers basically need to make runs into the US to make good money.
There’s really no reason for Americans to risk fines, jail time, and their livelihoods to protest. They just had the Sports Bowl, 100,000 fans unmasked, while we currently have 0 fans in hockey arenas.
Would have been nice for some US support but realistically they aren’t desperate enough to revolt. Life is good there. As for Australia/France, their citizens don’t have guns, and their Police/Intelligence communities haven’t been as ravaged by diversity (incompetence) as Canada has. The police is afraid of its citizens in Canada, you can smell the fear from our cops. One wrong move and it could seriously spiral.
This is about a lot more than mandates and masks. This is the citizenry’s last chance to take back some control. But, who cares…. Superbowl fun… mmmmm, nachos.
We have control. The vax mandate is dead, mask mandates are dead everywhere except hard left enclaves. Everyone can live as they did before, unless you’re going to a federal building, then you need masks, and that’s just not worth going to jail over. If anything, making federal employees wear masks while the rest of us don’t is rather fitting. So what’s there to protest?
I live in a California which is full of mask cultists. In my little corner, most people were masking up but when some people didn’t, zilch happened.
There really isn’t a huge reason to go and protest right now.
Also not only is half the population on Super Pot but our cities are full of Mexicans and assorted types who don’t care one way or another who is in charge. Cali is an inept sort of socialistic Latin American regime here run by Whites in other words just like home.
Also frankly taking charge means Authoritarian Populist Conservatism , boots on necks for decades.
Far too many people who share our ideas think we need more freedom when its more of the old tradition we need and much less freedom . A Moral and Religious people only, as homogeneous as you can make them
Getting past the Libertarian /Grifter mentality and away from what actually runs our society, something akin to the Commies Dialectal Materialism and to a moral and religious foundation is incredibly hard.
Woke is kind of an attempt to square that circle but its not going to work as a foundation and in effect its a tool of the elites at this point.
Basically you need to be Father Coughlin not Ronald Reagan and while sound economics is part of every plan anyone mentioning money needs to be treated as “on the elites side” ts not a materialism problem, thos fixes are very easy .
Its a philosophical and religious one which is hard.
France actually has the best gun ownership situation in the EU. Suppressors are not only legal to own without a tax stamp and background check, they’re considered polite.
Europe has always had a sane view of suppressors. As you say, it is considered polite.
There are no mandates in my state. Ronna has been over for many Americans over a year ago or as Floridians say huh?
Here in Montana, if I didn’t read the news, I would have zero idea that there was such a thing as COVID. For the last year and a half, the only change to my life has been the obvious absence of Albertans coming down here for vacation and shopping.
I don’t think you need the “Here in Montana” bit.
No need to apologize to Aust-failia.
As the world rolls back some WuFlu insanity, they’re making promo vids for their shiny new camps:
One has to wonder how many of the WEF head lice are embedded in the government down there…
Or maybe our understanding of Australia has been shaped by corporate media and we need to change our perception of that wretched place.
How much of your understanding of Australia is based on movies or TV shows? The idea that Australia was some free,rough-around-the-edges-but-friendly country and then suddenly became this prissy, authoritarian state because someone flicked a switch runs contrary to human nature.
Food and fuel. Those two commodities are vital to continued existence in most major metropolitan areas in the US. As prices skyrocket, people will downgrade their diet to match what they can afford and grumble but not starve. All big city commuters that spend over an hour on the interstate trying to get to work everyday will rage at every penny increase at the pump. The spring winds tighter and the pressure builds. Tempers will flare and theft will become epidemic, even in the suburbs.
Where does this lead?
People will be desperately looking for opportunities to vent their rage, and most will join into large scale public protest actions. And anyone that picks up the microphone and speaks hard truth about the decadence and corruption of our nation’s leadership will be elevated to messiah status. But screaming in the streets is not the same thing as fixing the problem. Until the disease cells are expurgated, the festering will continue behind the scenes. There has to be accountability and penalty for misdeeds, or the cancer will recur eventually. It has always been thus. Do or die.
Recently I observed a line of Messicans waiting at a Western Union and it occurred to me that perhaps all of these remittances are a curb on inflation. Wouldn’t those billions sent out of the country mean there’s less money being spent here, so lower demand and lower prices? Maybe one the smarties here knows something about this.
Indeed it does as the dollar displaces local currencies, but as we’re finding out now there is a limit to that. Worse still, with all of those “outstanding dollars” a sideways move could get very ugly very quickly (I however, am not a “dollar bear” in that respect; I foresee no scenario where the Dominican peso is preferred above the U.S. dollar).
Unofrtunately, your observation seems to beyond most people, even dissidents.
Accepting 1-2 million immigrants per year into our country seems to be too subtle for most.
While C0v1d tyranny is a problem, it is dwarfed in significance by massive immigration over many years.
There are some fairly nice apartments in my area and on the local Nextdoor thread many of the tenants are talking about trying to renew their leases and getting four and $500 increases. There is a lot of panic on these threads. The housing costs are really going through the roof. That’s where I’m really seeing it. And the milk I buy which is 5.50 a half gallon has gone up to 7.50. That’s a significant increase. Still not as expensive as the raw jersey milk I occasionally go to a farm and get. But that’s probably going to go up too.
If food prices keep creeping up like this, local farmers might find out their clients are increasingly less niche and more your average Joe and their prices become more competitive.
Local farmers will a have to increase their prices too, obviously, but there’s a certain price where the Walmart beef doesn’t seem worth it anymore.
The silver lining is, in real privation, we’ll start to see a real local food renaissance as people garden and have animals simply to make ends meet.
I keep an eye on the local farm equipment auctions in my area, they have them twice a year and this year so far two of the biggest/oldest farms are having retirement auctions of all their equipment, which means that land goes fallow (possibly to meet the new government guidelines for “protecting nature” by requiring a certain percentage of farmland to be left fallow because environment meh) and now there’s fewer potatoes, wheat, onions, corn and sugar beets, less work for farm laborers and food factory workers, truckers hauling produce, less produce in stores/higher prices), and this is only February.
Diesel and fertilizer are the biggest cost inputs for most commodity crops. The cost escalations are going to slow roll through food costs for at least a couple more years. The drought in CA is another wild card. It’s serious and will affect irrigation allocations.
Didn’t they strip food and energy prices from the headline inflation numbers back in the 70s?
That’s the problem. All of the government numbers have been messed with for so long and so many times that the numbers are completely meaningless. Like substitution. The excuse they use is if ice cream goes up by a lot, people will buy frozen yogurt or something. But what it really is, is if the price of steak goes up, people will substitute with hot dogs. But substituting hotdogs for steak is a significant drop in your standard of living.
In some markets, CA especially, the issue is having ten immigrants prepared to live in a one bed apt.
Prices are bid up to the point where regular Americans can’t share the rent between two but dot Indians can share it between eight.
Whitney: This. In addition to the non-stop pressure on rents and housing that we get here in DFW from the endless stream of Han and pajeet immigrants, we now have an endless stream of Californians bidding prices into the stratosphere. And the cherry on top is international finance like Blackrock and Chinese corruptocrats endlessly buying the housing stock.
My hairdresser (no longer the loony leftist but a new one who is a Christian anti-vaxxer!) had trouble finding a decent apartment in her area and is relieved to now have a 725 square foot one bedroom for $1200 a month (and that is extremely cheap for this area). She has two realtor friends who regale her with stories of the bidding wars between Californians vying for houses and leaving the locals who might have rented a house now added to the pressure on the existing apartment stock.
In addition to the weekly letters we get from various unknown companies offering to buy our house, we now get phone calls (from people with varying foreign accents) wanting to buy. If they’d up their offers to a million, I’d take it and live in a trailer while building on our land. But with lumber and building supply costs and availability what they are, a mere $400-500 k is insufficient.
As far as grocery costs, I could give dozens of examples. The most glaring to me, of late, is the pack of paper towels I usually buy (Viva multi-purpose 6=9 count). Early 2020, I think I was paying $5.99 on sale. Summer 2021 I could still get them for $7.99 on sale. Today they were $12.99 on sale (and I even had a $1 store digital coupon as well) and I passed.
“This long vacation from reality that our ruling class has enjoyed since the end of the Cold War is about to end….
“The American people are far more docile and subservient than Canadians, but until a few weeks ago people assumed the Canadians were a beaten people. It turns out that there is still some life left in Canadians, which suggests there may be a flicker of life left in Americans as well. ”
These are two of the most important sentences you have written, and they really do have to be read together. As you commented yesterday, the disparity between the Ruling Class’ perception of its competence and the reality of its incompetence is staggering. Further, the perception of Americans as a tough and free people has been disproved by their utter cowardice in the face of unabashed tyranny. These contradictions were papered over by prosperity and rendered somewhat meaningless.
Prosperity is near the end of its run. The minority of Americans, Canadians and other Westerners who first experienced the end of prosperity are the least obedient. Due to their lack of influence and wealth, these people largely could be ignored outside of their limited reaction against the stolen election and Covid tyranny. The heavy-handedness against them caused a minor uptick in disobedience that was barely noticeable until recently.
Those in the classes above the workers, both cucks and leftists, are about to experience deprivation for the first time in their lives. The Ruling Class is about to experience widespread dissent and internal tumult for the first time in recent history. So, yes, Trudeau is instructive as to how an incompetent Ruling Class’ consiglieres will handle almost universal discontent. The title of a great book about the assassination of a powerful and popular union boss in a Western mining state, BIG TROUBLE, really applies here.
Liberal democracy failed. Its mandarins failed. The Ruling Class failed. Can the system be vicious enough to cling to power a bit longer? We are about to see. Swabb’s quote may be turned against him: you will rule nothing and not be happy. How many will die to get there is the open question, but don’t expect a peaceful end as happened with the dissolution with the Soviet Union. And from the Soviet era, to paraphrase again, you may not think of the economy but the economy thinks of you, until you cannot. Oppression and turbulence lies ahead. Buckle up.
As a local bar band from my salad days had it, “fear is never boring.” It promises to be a wild and bumpy ride. Buckle up indeed!
The tough and free Americans were White and most of them are under 6 feet of dirt.
The paradox is this:
It’s never been easier to organize in mass, peacefully, and use that leverage for outsized impact. (See, the Canadian truckers)
Also: those very tools used to organize are instantly available to governments, and those lists are used to destroy livelihoods and careers “legally” as bank assets are seized, licenses revoked, insurance denied, etc. Even mere bystander donations from not participants can mean a ruined life.
This hyper-narrow targeting of peaceful protesters is only made possible by the very tools that allowed them to protest in the first place.
Organizing via social media platforms should be seen as a honey trap, no matter how saintly the participants behave. And the Jan 6 response by hysterical congressmen is a taste of the overreaction that will happen if there is even a small bit of coloring outside the lines.
——— if hyperinflation comes…all bets are off. People will spontaneously organize, and it won’t be pretty.
“Peaceful protesting” has only ever worked when the government already wanted to do what the protestors wanted them to do, like the “civil rights” stuff.
They do not care what you think, what you say or if you stand out in the streets holding up signs. You can bang your pots and pans all you want, they don’t care. They will not listen.
Absolutely right…For example, Gandhi and the Indian independence movement succeeded because India was no longer profitable, and the Labor government wanted out..India had been completely looted and was then one of the poorest countries in the world…
India had not been completely looted and was not made poor by Europeans. You argue like a Leftist but have the literacy skills of a Frenchman.
The use of ellipsis is the sign of idiocy.
One of the interesting facts of 20th century history is that the British left their colonies in relatively good shape whilst the French were driven out time and time again by the locals.
One wonders why the French are so inept at war:the last 150 years they just got beat like a drum.
When Reagan was running for President, inflation was high – and so were savings and bond rates. It was possible for a conservative saver to get returns well over the rate of inflation.
Now with inflation running at 10% at least, bank accounts are paying 0.05%. A “super savings” account at AMEX will get you 0.50%. This is uncharted territory.
That’s really a good point. As I commented earlier, this truly is unprecedented in that there has not been widespread deprivation since the creation of the welfare state. In the West the dispossession has been felt mostly by the least powerful. As that spreads upwards, all bets are off.
Here’s a nice summary of what the financialization scam has cost the Average American.
It is. Back during the 2016 election was invited to have dinner with Kevin Hassett (the economist). He ran through a spot on discussion of the problem with massive debt issuance at low rates and the sensitivity analysis of various UST repricing to long term interest rate averages. Effectively the entire Federal budget becomes interest payments. And additional taxation combined with GDP deflation simply digs the hole deeper.
Spent a lot of time in Canada and around Canadians, both in sports competition and business. Oversimplification—but they are sort of the Golden Retrievers of North America. Will put up with a lot—tail and ears pulled, kids riding on their back…but cross a certain line and you’re dealing with a 110lb fur missile. Worked for a Canadian born COO years ago. Nicest guy, part of the “McGill Mafia”, patient, took a lot of time developing people. But cross the line and take advantage of, or lie to him and suddenly one day your office was empty. That quick.
As for inflation, at 60 I’m the youngest that truly remembers the joys of stagflation. Started beating the drum on almost two years ago at work—since our business is very sensitive to spikes in construction materials and high end consumer goods. Got looked at like I had two heads. Now suddenly my fellow execs are in “oh shit” mode. Many bought into the “transitory” myth. In midst of the 78-82 period I happened to take my Money & Banking sequence with a female professor that could have been Volcker’s sister and still remember how she laid it all out in 1980–exactly, almost to the day when inflation would “break”. Problem was back then we still had low enough debt and no bloated balance sheet at the Fed. Volcker could fuck around with rates and suck the money out of the system. Today? Fed is out of ammo and will be relegated to throwing rocks. And the jellyfish that inhabit DC have neither the brains nor the will to deal with it.
Golden Retrievers of North America. So funny
I just saw a clip of an interview with Sen. Kennedy of Louisiana, concerning the situation in Canada. He said, “what we are seeing is a tyranny of the managerial elite over the working class majority.” Is our host being read by Senators now?
I think that is just Kennedy. Lot of people underestimate the guy—not realizing he’s Vanderbilt/UVA Law/Oxford (First Honors)—underneath the cornpone exterior. And when those degrees represented an education, not indoctrination.
Yes, we have been to Canada many times in the last half century, and I think Canadians are even more passive than Americans…which is why Trudeau senior could bankrupt the country and nothing happened…
Americans really are a docile people. Its so contrary to our perceptions of ourselves. We are so rule abiding that our revolution and civil war both relied on our local legislations declaring the war for us. There was no spontaneous revolt, but legislative debate both times. When tyrants rise, Americans simply go west.
Kind of scary to think about.
In America we have zombies begging for permanent mask mandates:
Apparently they didn’t watch the maskless elites partying at the Super Bowl…
Reality has no meaning for NPCs.
Like schizophrenics, the internal hallucinated commanding voices are real and reality is like a dream.
What they gain from masks is an identity, the same thing one gains from a hijab, a fez, a yarmulke, a cowboy hat.
NPC’s don’t have an inner monologue , no one is home inside their skulls and they couldn’t be aware if they wanted to.
The follow and are as Aristotle would have noted they are natural slaves.
They don’t write about the economy because in the macro there sort of isn’t one.
The entire capital structure in terms of large players is a land of make believe floated on endless monopoly notes provided by the Fed and Blackrock.
Every major corporation cares nothing about its revenues and intentionally insults its buyers and brings endless products that no one wants. Companies dominate the stock market with billions of dollars of losses, made up revenues and no one cares.
The age of capital as a real world effect is over as far as the powers that be are concerned.
What is there to write about?
Well, if the Fed is finally constrained by having to deal with a genuine crisis, largely of their own devisement, to stop papering over the abuses by these – let’s be frank anout this, shall we – welfare recipients, maybe this changes.
When Amazon Prime can no longer afford to offer free shipping when the price of fuel reaches the stratosphere, and Uncle Sugar won’t buy up loss leading junk stocks, the fist of reality will punch through the wall of the cardboard shack they were formerly touting as a mansion.
But we shall see. Whatever cannot continue, will not.
Exactly. So, they write about how you should feel about it.
Covid will likely go to where the Economy went too. Which is that of an emotional story, a kind of shared nostalgia in which there are no longer any meaningful guiderails, data is peak contradictory and thus meaningless, and to question anything or pursue a logical or linear relationship to find your way out of the maze is to HATE.
It’s all just emotional maintenance now: just a general feeling to be manufactured. A perpetual sense of unease and lack of control. The feedback loop of consumer sentiment and consumer confidence. How do you feel today fellow consumer?
Yet we know it affects us. But can’t for the life of us seem to exert any control over how and when. What TPTB do talk about is so remote from our actual reality that the purpose is really just one more psyop to control our emotional state, to prepare us for the next set of conditions and limitations that we must submit to in order to keep our license to participate in this “economy”.
Right now, even those who are doing fairly well are likely wrestling with that building unease of being a taxi-driver in NY while the news is all about some new company called Uber.
The bugpeople cheer for tech progress. Your payment on that $100k taxi medallion, now that is the economy you know.
Thanks I needed that
I don’t see how Canadians can be described as far less docile than Americans just because some of their truckers show some cajones. Americans are a pathetic lot but quite a few have shown resolve and backbone these last few years.
Not sure but does Canada have a similar Ron Desantis or Rand Paul? A few small business people and preachers stand out but there are still many in the U.S. constantly fighting back. Covid was the sh** test the last few years and has revealed much. Our rulers are acting on the results now. As for my personal life, especially my family I have duly noted every gutless and knee bender among them
Oh and as far as the economy you left out the decline in the stock market. I suspect the big hit my 401k (muh 401k!) took recently is just the beginning.
I closed my account with my family’s financial advisor and reduced the amount of money going toward my 401K a few years ago. No point in saving up when the financial collapse is going to happen in my lifetime.
These days it’s better to hold food, water purification, ammo, and possibly some silver than to expect one’s 401k or Social Security to be there in a few years.
SSI has a source of permanent funding. It’s called payroll taxes. By law, SSI must pay out revenue received up to the amount promised. If there is a shortfall, then everyone takes a haircut across the board—equally. Current prediction at the lowest was about 72% payout when the reserves are spent (sometime before 2030).
Nothing stops Congress from supplementing or decreasing payouts to match revenue (the default), then SSI—if means tested—might indeed prove in any particular case to be cut more than 28%. And of course, double digit inflation could cut the value of you SSI dollar significantly in the next few years except—also in law—mandatory increases, based on an inflation formula. This year for example, SSI increased a bit less than 6%.
It’s wise to not depend on SSI, but it’s also wrong to say it will simply “go broke” and no one will receive a penny at some future date.
Not sure but does Canada have a similar Ron Desantis or Rand Paul?
That’s probably not the best way to measure these things. In Scandinavia, we have15-25% nationalist-populist parties in the legislature but hardly nobody protest the lockdowns except for a few handfuls of boomers, and those Antifa sent in under false flag to give the cameras footage of screaming “anti-vaxxers” setting fire to stuff.
It will not be long before the last few years of the culture war seem like a golden age of tranquility.
A decade of soup kitchens and bread lines will work wonders for the morale.
For the 30’s style stressors you’ll need a currency collapse.
12% of the population is on food stamps already (that’s probably a reliable stat) and who knows how many get food boxes. Its having more than a little effect but there isn’t a useful alternative ideology yet.
The 30’s got various socialism (Democratic Workers, International and Social Democratic) but these lacked anything but a material component and you can’t substitute the state for God and expect good results.
How our side fills that gap is the real challenge, We need a moral and religious traditional population . Just pushing Jesus may not work and we’d best have another option.
Still saving the US might be futile anyway and it may be better to let it end as Clown World runs out of juice. Have a strong local homogeneous community of moral and religious folks who make it In time your descendants can share the land with the Amish and the others.
Culling the trustworthy from the unworthy has been the greatest impact of Covid. I have made a decision to write the Covidians out of my life, sometimes at great cost and with great emotional investment, and I’m not an outlier. Responses have defined and branded people permanently.
“The ruling class of any society is responsible for the general welfare of the people in that society.”
That is something that our ruling class wants nothing to do with thus climate change and Covid hysterias. The ruling class has been making it clear that they want us to believe that they have a moral responsibility to lower our standards of living otherwise we will all die from the flu and climate change. Only science deniers object.
The rulers have succeeded in getting a large segment of the youth, the managerial class, and single women to get on board with the rulers abdicating their role of improving the lives of their subjects. Covid was brilliant because normal people went along with it but under the delusion that it was temporary. Climate change hasn’t proven to be near as effective for enabling the rulers to tank the economy and transfer wealth from the masses to themselves. Fortunately the future is green we are told so there is hope for the rulers yet on that front.
I imagine the managerial class and single women will start thinking twice about the wisdom of sacrificing their financial well-being to Mother Gaia when it starts hitting their pocketbook big time. If it hits them. Government and, to a lesser extent tech workers, seem remarkably immune from any real economic suffering. The people who are suffering are not important.
Their response to the rising levels of economic development in the third world is to lower the living standards of anyone below the upper class in the developed world. They don’t believe the planet can be sustained with billions of people living at the level of the American middle class. They of course, don’t want their own standard of living to decline at all and will rule over the serfs they have created world wide. If it gets too hot in any one location, just pick up and go to the next trendy global spot.
Sustainability is just one big ruling class scam to convince the non-ruling class to embrace their coming impoverishment.
Sustainability is an attempt to come to terms with the reality of industrial farming. The problem with depleting, say, soil fertility is that you either have to import fertilizer or move to new fertile land. The former is becoming increasingly expensive and the latter hasn’t been an option for decades. So, the only way to grow food is to do so in a way that maintains or improves the soil.
“ They don’t believe the planet can be sustained with billions of people living at the level of the American middle class.”
They’re probably right about that, especially since nonwhites typically don’t give crap about ecology or the environment. Buncha shitholers!
I’m still on the cusp about that. One thing the current climate “crisis” and green movement has shown is that the US—without much force of law and treaty—has done more to alleviate ecological damage than any other country. This is a byproduct of a strong economy. Environmentalism is a rich man’s game. Every poor country—even China today—are major polluters.
I’d argue that a significant portion of the US’ environmental improvements are the byproduct of moving our industrial capacity to countries like China, Mexico, Japan, Malaysia, etc.
I wonder if anyone has done a credible investigation of this topic.
Howard, good point. Factories and their pollution exported. Yep. On the other hand, some stuff doesn’t leave—like automobiles. I was thinking of fossil fuel exchanges, like gas for coal and the like. But you have a point, we really don’t know.
Don’t forget the White People Factor. People who can conceptualize a future from current trends, and chart a different course out of consideration for the well-being of their progeny. Now, this of course is only partially true, as we whites have a fair share of rapacious, sociopathic thugs, too, but they could be constrained by those more insightful among us. But these victories are always hard won.
Nine of the ten rivers that are responsible for 90% of the plastic in our oceans are in Asia. The tenth is the Niger. European and North American environmental zealots still get outraged about the insignificant amount of plastic waste that comes from their own countries.
It’ll be interesting to see where Sub-Saharan Africa goes when Western aid is no longer avaliable like it is now. It’ll be especially sad to see the inevitable bloodshed. Butnotmyproblem.txt
How much ya wanna bet that when the recession hits it will be 1.) unreported by ‘The media” and 2.) if it is reported the numbers will be BS?
And it’ll be blamed on White people?
Naturally! Damn White devils.
The reported numbers already are. CPI has been fucked with so much over the years, the current measurement bears scant relationship to the formula used in the 1980s. The PPI print of 9.8% yesterday caused some panic for those that realize it’s a better measure. Though that dwarf Yellen is still insisting we’ll be down to 2% CPI by end of year. My commodities investments suggest otherwise.
Empty stomachs and economic panic cannot be papered over. If it gets bad enough, all the propaganda in the world cannot save the system.
Recession started December 1, 2022.
In the fall, the Republicans are given control of US House, Senate split 50-50.
At same time, US goverment reports that the economy had been contracting since December and headlines scream, “US is in recession!!!!”
Recession / unemployment is the Republicans fault.
That will be a hard sell. No new laws can be passed to pin blame on the Rep’s in such a scenario.
“Black Americans hit hardest”.
For people not tall enough to ride the Asset Coaster, the recession from 08 never really ended. It’s a simple equation for most. How many dollars come in every month? How much do those dollars purchase?
The great reforms out of the 08 scamcollapse were to tighten credit underwriting for proles trying to buy assets. Yay.
Even if the cloud chattered about the “economy”, what’s the point?
The middle-class and capital class friends of the average worker bee already speak a foreign language. “My house has doubled in value in three years!”. “We almost had to cancel our annual vacation to hawaii because covid”. “If you just mind your stop losses and trade on volatility you can kill it in this market”.
Then he looks down the street at the pox who never seem to be working and yet there’s a new truck in the driveway. Sure sure. Its all debt. But that’s the point. The economy is not for him. Other than what he manages to consume, he does not matter.
The news at 6 says “join us or die” in 1,000 different ways.
The #1 thing the USA manufactures is Credit. You either own part of that factory or you are enslaved by it.
Operating outside that is a demoralizing fools errand the rewards of which are spiritual but not particularly filling for the belly. Waiting for the collapse to cleanse the vampires and beat up the cloud people is a pyrrhic daydream. But probably still beats what we have now as collapses are if nothing else little bites of reality.
Luckily Russia is about to violate the Ukraine border. So that helps keep his mind off the fact that half the kids in his kids school speak Spanish.
At least in 05-08 the mortgage market had liar loans. Other than blacks and street shitters scamming the helicopter covid drops and unemployment gravy, the fake and gay carnival has nothing to offer average white guy. The question I return to is what do we have to offer him?
“The #1 thing the USA manufactures is Credit. You either own part of that factory or you are enslaved by it. ”
Modern American Economics, 101. And 102, 103, etc etc.
The press narrative on recession, just like any aspect of the economy, will depend on what best helps the Democrats and the extent that it can be blamed on their saving the population from the most deadly pandemic in history. (It is so deadly that some people know someone who knows someone who died maybe from it.)
Anyway they may report on it heavily if it can be blamed on Orange Man and Putin.
Amen. This (former) country hasn’t faced a “for real” crisis since the depression and WW2. Before that, the Civil War. We’ve skated by almost all the other disasters that have been inflicted on other countries around the world over the past century and a half – and it’s been easy living since the 50’s. Degeneracy in multiple forms is now the norm. I truly despise what this place has become – or more accurately who has turned this place into what it has become. In many ways, I look forward to our well deserved comeuppance, but also fear the ramifications.
The one thing I got wrong about Covid was I did not see the Fed unleashing a money tsunami in response to the lockdowns. One again, the mistake is always in not being cynical enough. Maybe they have some magical way to solve this problem, but all of the ones we know about result in recession, usually a sharp one. Then again, maybe the people running the simulation will just change the rules of economics again to keep the game going.
Your last sentence is somewhat borne out by the push from some to institute UBI. Ultimately the concept is ludicrous and will not work, but at least some of the Clouds have anticipated the tumult that lies ahead and have considered a prescription, however useful.
The Fed is trying for a “soft landing,” but as in the past, it will hit hard anyway. All their textbooks say hyperinflation leads to that bad man from the 1930s-40s. So they will avoid that no matter what.
Well, they can try, but most everything The Cloud has been doing for the last few decades has the effect of locking in hyperinflation. They can shuck and jive all that they want, but facts are facts, no matter how inconvenient and damning they may be.
The money flood was odd. I kind of thought it was a Trump 4d chess play for a while.
Basically the Country Club planned to arbitrage wages down again counting on COVID desperation to make this happen after a few months.
The stimulus throttled that and as they emergency dragged on and on people who were tenuously connected to the work force do to age on not making much money left maybe for good.
Of course this had other effects and between actual shortages and the money flood well best laid plans got both sides.
Wow! ” I truly despise what this place has become – or more accurately who has turned this place into what it has become. In many ways, I look forward to our well deserved comeuppance, but also fear the ramifications.”
It’s almost like you’re my alter ego or can read my mind.
I was always a patriot. Volunteered for Nam. Had 79 confirmed kills. Bronze Star with “V” and two Purple Hearts. Ran my own businesses for 40 years. Loved America. Hate commies, fascists, mooslems and degenerates. They have no place in a society they want to destroy. They’re a fifth column, a Trojan horse and should be expelled.
But now? I just don’t care any more. I can’t care about a government that seems to only want to harm me. I can’t care about politicians who only live to ingratiate themselves. I can’t care about cops who would shoot down their friends, neighbors and even family on orders from their boss. That ain’t American in my book.
It’s lonely being an exile in your own country. It’s scary knowing a full 30% of your fellow Americans would lock you in a gulag or put you against a wall if they had the chance.
What the fuck happened to my country? God, please bless America.
Hoagie, you earned the right not to give a damn. Let some one else stand up to the plate and take their turn.
It doesn’t work like that Compsci. I wish it did. Constant diligence is how the left rode through our institutions and they did it while I sat here having a good life thinking I did my part. Thinking someone else would step up to the plate.
Now I look around and I am embarrassed at what I let happen. It was and is still my watch and I’ve failed.
I forgot who I am. I am a White man.
I forgot where I am. I am an American.
I forgot what I am. I am a Christian.
I bought the bullshit and started to believe the propaganda. Diversity, and all the grief it causes. I forgot that the Hymn “Onward Christian Soldiers” is a rallying call for Christians to kill our enemies because God actually is on our side but only if we fight.
This propaganda where Christians are supposed to kneel down and take a bullet to the back of the head is just that, propaganda. The Bible is full of God slaughtering His enemies and using his allies to do it.
Atheist’s, communists, fascists, moslems, blacks, asians, hindus, buddhists, Jews, homos and all the rest of the filth of the earth did not discover America, explore it, conquer in wars with the indians, settle it and built it into the freest and most powerful nation in history. We did. Our ancestors did. They killed and died and bled and fought for their progeny, us. And we let ours down. And for love of God I can’t figure out how to fix it.
The Nose took over your country. Rot it out from within, open the gates and let the Barbarians in… it’s an old game, ask the Romans.
I know these comments are for discussing the daily essay, and I normally don’t post links, but I thought it would be good to mention that Dr. Ed Dutton got thrown off Patreon and is now on subscribestar. Given that our host, Z, has apparently done a bit of happy pub crawling with Ed, I’ve posted the link below.
Good to see Ed is on a reasonable platform. Patreon has always been run by fruitcakes.
What do you get if you cross JR Nyquist with Ed Dutton?
Russia and China together in One Clenched Fist as the world descends into the collapse rivaling the Bronze Age. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Here in Southern Utah, as sheepy and sick from eating green jello and coolwhip as Mormons are, plus Mormons rival Alabama and Kansas for eating fecal matter food filling the void, our local pols get their backs up over any kind of mandate. They have a deep memory of being shot and tarred and feathered. No CCP passport nor few masks, just on boomers and college kids. Salt Lake is creepy with feminazis in charge screeching you will obey.
You Z folks are good at analysis. Hope you folks are putting away some food and supplies. Mormon suburban neighborhoods in the south are the best for kraaling up amongst. More personal arsenals in 2 square blocks, more food storage, more sharing of garden surplus and regardless if you are part of The System Church or not, these neighbors look after neighbors. The last of kindness and manners. Utah has Goldbacks as an alternative currency, in place ready to go.
Prediction: As the collapse and civil war become clear, Southern Utah will distance from Northern Woke Utah, where a chunk of the Bay Area Techies and Wokesters fled to. Real men still in Southern Utah. Beautiful and nowhere else I’d rather be. Plus the polygamous (plygs) folks are always entertaining. A cross between Harry Dean Stanton meets the beauty of Navajo country and mountains. Come to my neighborhood. Could use some folks to think with. Plus I have too many canned pickles. And freeze dried beef.
When is Dutton going to come to his senses and stop doing videos with Richard Spencer?
He also had a tranny on once. He’ll talk to anyone; for better or worse.
Dutton and Spencer are both non-populist dissidents, and turn their nose up at mere mortals. So I can see why they work together. But Dutton at least produces content and doesn’t seem to crave attention.
It’s kind of like a game, to see how long it takes for Spencer to either piss off or betray his associates.
Everyone else Spencer has worked with has either mysteriously stopped appearing with him or gotten backstabbed (Greg Conte and Keith Woods)
There’s a pattern with Spencer. He burns bridges, craves attention and seeks novel takes that he hopes makes people gasp. I have to admit I somewhat pay attention to him, but only as a character study at this point. It’s kind of fascinating.
For the record, Dutton was matched up initially with Micheal Woodly. Woodly was an academic in the traditional sense—paper presentations, published articles, gathering/generating data, analysis, etc.
Dutton and Woodly used to have weekly video discussions. I liked them, but could sense there was conflict. Dutton wanted to be more of a pundit and extrapolate upon basic research findings (perhaps more than indicated by data), while Woodly would stick with the basic research conclusions.
At times it seemed Woodly was reining in Dutton. There often seemed to be disagreement/reluctance by Woodly on Dutton’s extrapolations. Finally, on one show Dutton announced Woodly would no longer be doing these “duets” due to his pressing research schedule (IIR).
At that point it seemed Dutton started getting guests on of a less academic bent. But Dutton’s videos are still entertaining and his newer books still worth reading.
will there be another post, about what happens when a populace *doesn’t* stand up for itself in the face of ruling class failure? are there any historical precedents? the Mayans come immediately to mind…
It is not exactly like the Mayans didn’t “stand up for themselves”. Many tried and many (whole villages including women and children) were massacred. Many men were forced
into into serving as irregular auxiliaries under threat of death. When it looked like the rebels were holding there own in the mountains the good old USA stepped in with advanced weapons and helicopters etc.
The powers that (shouldn’t) be are ruthless and brutal here and now as they were then and there.
To be clear… referring to the Guatemalan civil war
1960 to 1996.
It’s very important to keep in mind that, just because the current US regime sucks, it does not follow that the communists were the good guys in the Cold War. Most of the people who support our current regime, if they were alive back in the 1980’s, were members of the nuclear freeze movement, supported any and all communist terrorists in Central America and running around carrying signs that said “You Can’t Hug A Child with Nuclear Arms!”. Sure, the countries the US supported committed many terrible human rights violations; these were dwarfed by what the communists did. Retconning history to trace a line from the Cold Warriors of yesterday to the SJW’s of today is a bad idea.
Hilarious that someone calling themselves “BoomerMCMXLVII” can’t even get that right – I mean, the one saving grace of boomers is supposed to be that they know communism sucks and communists should all be helicoptered at a minimum.
I forgot to add:
“Sure, the countries the US supported committed many terrible human rights violations”
But against whom? It’s unethical to not commit human rights violations against communists.
It’s always good to shoot communists. In fact, I think we westerners are overdue for a purge of the communists who run our countries.
Soddom and Gomorrah? Haha.
Generally, decadent peoples/empires decay from the inside until they are divided and weak. Then they get conquered by a more disciplined outside power.
The obvious example is the Roman Empire/Germanic tribes, but there are others.
Asian historians constantly debate how the advanced, but decadent Song Dynasty managed to get conquered by seemingly backward Mongolians.
Endless civil wars and religious infighting weakened the Byzantine empire over centuries.
Don’t forget the Byzantines had a major external enemy in Persia, plus several *real* plagues.
Widespread poverty with the advent of the modern welfare state is unprecedented, Karl. Even the Sioux stood up before they got mowed down at the dawn of the 20th Century.
Plains tribes were largely defeated by the annihilation of the bison herds. They starved. The most interesting study is of the Irquois confederacy that managed to “rope-a-dope” the Europeans for almost 150 years.
My point about the Sioux was they lashed out, however unsuccessfully, long after their defeat, so, yeah.
Indigenous Americans were Stone Age tribal peoples, who– – with the exception of the Iroquois— were unable or unwilling to band together and strategize as one.
Though man-for-man they were far superior warriors to the soldiers and settlers who conquered them, superior technology, organization, sheer numerical superiority, a shared belief in “manifest destiny”, and a determined perseverance eventually won the day for the European settlers.
The deliberate decimation of bison herds by White settlers and US Army troops was certainly a factor, but Indians were doomed in any case. When a Stone Age tribal culture meets an Industrial Age culture intent on expansion, the result is a foregone conclusion.
A wonderful book on the subject is ‘Empire of the Summer Moon’, the story of half-breed Comanche war chief Quannah Parker:
Today, “native Americans” as a group are among the saddest people on Earth, judging by their rates of alcoholism, drug addiction, domestic abuse, suicide, unemployment, etc.
An interesting related question is how the Afghans— though equally primitive and tribal— managed to defeat the far-better-equipped British, Russians, and US occupying forces?
One possible answer is that Afghan warlords were able to temporarily put aside their differences and fight as one when faced with a foreign foe.
That and nobody wants to hang around and farm rocks and goats. I need to do more reading on the Iroquois Confederacy. My own family were among the very few “original” settlers of New England and were frontiersmen until finally landing in KY and southern Ohio right after the AmRev. The relations were far more complex. Including my paternal 4x grandfather marrying a Shawnee woman after his first wife died—I’m descended from her. And the brother of my paternal 4x grandfather teaching Tecumseh to read in the early 1800s and later going to war against him (you can look it up) Like I said, complicated.
Islam is powerful stuff. Also Afghans are a raid culture and enjoy hit and run fighting like an insurgency . Its what they do.
Its also an impoverished hell pit with little to blow up and little ability to make things much worse.
So why not fight to drive invaders out?
The British won the second and third wars against Afghanistan so it is possible.
The Mayan analogy is a good one. But the Mayans were a closed and xenophobic society; they simply did not know any alternatives to being ruled by a bird-king.
Maybe the old communist hold-outs like Cuba and North Korea?