No One Votes For A Pay Cut

There were two main reasons why the the Scottish vote was not close. One is the staggeringly high welfare class in Scotland. It’s not Camden with kilts and bagpipes, but it is close. The only way that block was going for independence is if it meant bigger welfare checks and more entertainments. The very word “independence” is frightening to the under-class. Welfare types are not very bright, but they are clever. They know how the system works better than most. I’m sure in the welfare underground the math of this had been worked out long ago. They did the math.

Even if the size of the loafer class is exaggerated, there was never a compelling reason to leave. All the romantic crap about Braveheart is moving to some people, but most people want to live lives of quiet desperation. Most men do not want “to live deliberately and confront the essential facts of life.” Most men like things the way they are. It’s why the Left is winning the war on civilization. Once they push through some toppling of a institution, people get used to it.

This vote also provides a nice reminder of the dishonestly of polling. The polling companies need close races that appear to go back and forth. The press wants polls showing closes races. All of the incentives are pointing in one direction. Polling is not science. It is barely statistics. It’s how Research 2000 was able to sell fake polls to the Daily Kos so easily. The people at Kos want to believe so strongly, they lost the ability to see when they were being conned.

This vote was never close. The result is pretty much what early polling suggested. The press and the polling outfits wished otherwise and the inevitable momentum slowly collapsed the polls until we had a deadlock. By the standards of modern elections, this was a blowout. For the next week, the pollsters will spin the result focusing on what changed in the final days and how the winning side won and the losing side lost. Throw in a few conspiracy theories about rigged votes and the polling gets forgotten.

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gobsmacker
gobsmacker
10 years ago

Ignore polls. Pay attention to the bookies.