The golden rule states that the man with the gold makes the rules. In this age, gold is energy in its various forms. The world as we understand it runs on electricity, which comes from fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. If you happen to sit upon a lot of these things, you get to be important and have a lot of money. If you do not have these things, then you are dependent upon others for your welfare. There simply is no way to have a modern society without cheap energy.
In case the West forgot this reality, OPEC+ sent a gentle reminder this week by committing to a large cut in production. Over the next two months they will reduce supplies of crude to the market by two million barrels per day. The stated reason is to bring market prices back in line with the target of $100 per barrel. The unstated reason was to remind Washington that they are not the only voice in the room. The Saudis were sending a message to Washington.
Since Biden took office, there has been a sharp decline in relations with Saudi Arabia, due, in part, to Biden’s reckless language regarding the Khashoggi affair. He was the CIA operative pretending to be a Washington Post reporter. The Saudis decided to have him chopped up at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. This became a major scandal, as the events were leaked to the press, most likely by Washington. Biden has called Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a murderer.
There are also the recent efforts by the Biden administration to manipulate the energy markets through various means. It is clear that the administration has been faking gasoline demand numbers to suppress the futures market. Then there was the promise to buy 200 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia at $80 a barrel in exchange for OPEC not cutting production. The Biden admin has reneged on that deal. The Saudis have good reason to not want to play ball with Team Biden.
The larger issue for the Saudis and every other country outside the collective West is the issue of regime change, which has become a fetish for Washington. MBS looks at Biden’s reckless words regarding the Khashoggi affair and sees it as a potential first step on the regime change escalator. Whenever Washington decides they want to blow up a country, they anathematize the leader, by claiming he is in violation of the moral consensus and thus fair game.
The Saudis have become closer with the Russian over the last year and the main driver is the regime change issue. The OPEC countries, Russia, China and even India are coming to understand that Washington sees them as lackeys. As long as they do what they are told they can keep some of their stuff but get out of line and Washington will install someone new. The willingness of Washington to try regime change on a nuclear power says that no one is safe from this policy.
Of course, the Russians are a member of OPEC+ and they have their reasons for supporting a production cut. The EU is still plotting an oil price cap on Russian oil, which is mostly a face saving measure. They will set the cap at a price well above what Russia will find acceptable, so they can act tough while importing as much Russian oil as they can handle. This announcement by OPEC will make sure that the Europeans do not get creative with their math.
There is something else here. It is the first sign in the Middle East that the major players are thinking about a post-America world. The Saudi – Russia relationship has grown stronger over the last year to the point where the Saudis have been circulating a Ukraine peace plan in Europe. They have agreed to join BRIC’s, which is the political alliance formed around Brazil, Russia, India and China. Interestingly, Iran has also said they wish to join, despite their relationship with the Saudis.
Some observers suggest that Russia is playing peacemaker between Iran and the Saudis, with China and India supporting the effort. Getting these two regional rivals on the same team would be a sea change in regional politics. It is the sort of thinking that imagines a world where America is not a major force. It is also the sort of thinking that comes when all involved fear the same enemy. The sign outside their clubhouse will read, “No Regime Change Allowed.”
All of this is a reminder that while ideology plays a huge role in the current crisis, it is energy that has been the driving force. America’s presence in the Middle East has always been premised on the claim they are guarding the oil supply. The long war on Iran has been as much about keeping the Persians out of the energy markets as it has been about containing Islamic radicalism. The Iranians will not play ball with the West over energy, so they must be isolated.
This brings us back to the golden rule. Washington’s power lies solely in the power of the dollar, which is pegged to energy. The real reserve currency of the world is the BTU and the dollar is the physical manifestation of it. The war on Russia, like the war on Iran, is as much about protecting the control of energy as it is ideology. What we are seeing is that the countries with vast energy wealth are starting to figure out that they are better off as partners rather than as competitors.
Where all of this leads is hard to know. Washington is sure they can win a war of attrition against Russia, a people famous for their endurance. A lot will depend upon how much suffering Western Europe is willing to absorb. Washington is willing to fight the war in Ukraine to the last Ukrainian. Maybe they are willing to fight the energy war to the last European. As winter approaches, we will soon learn who is better equipped to survive the first energy war of the 21st century.
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I don’t know if anyone has seen it, but you tube has a video of Potato Joe with his pants, allegedly on backwards.
Am I missing something? How did he zip himself up?
Search “Biden pants”.
I feel like Im being punked.
The way out is Energy money.
Directly – the value backing money is energy. The BTU penny, the KwH Dime, the rate is less important than backing our money with what’s not only vital but a simple recognition of what we have largely already done.
Z even all but wrote it in the post.
Henry Ford suggested this a century ago.
The beauty of it is Inflation of Energy money actually bends the energy cost curve down.
We are on Fiat paper since 1971.
Our money has no intrinsic value.
In our lifetimes except for the brief few years of fracking all wage gains are eaten up by the rising costs of energy, both consumer and business.
We need a lot more energy and a lot less inflation.
In the 1970s the fiat dollar’s lack of substance behind it was overcome by The Petrodollar- we persuaded OPEC that oil must be paid for in Dollars.
At that point we now have the world over a barrel, and they have to finance our debts.
Oil and energy are the life’s blood of all economies, 8 billion people cannot survive without energy and frankly oil.
The Gold Standard was replaced by the Petrodollar.
This and not Democracy or Israel is the reason for our wars. Its not even oil – its making sure the world must use dollars.
That is the Petrodollar: it’s money, not oil.
That has just ended.
The world is leaving us, the oil can now be bought in Yuan, rubles, I suspect Rupee (India).
We have horrific debts and outstanding derivatives obligations in hundreds of trillions.
We also need boundless energy.
We are Reshoring industry as necessity (already happening).
We have internal conflicts that aren’t solvable by any peaceful resolution as the money’s gone, in fact gone many times over.
However the solution is at hand; make the Petrodollar official- even better the KiloWatt dollar.
Make money of value again, and our money backed by energy.
(Actually probably the KwH Dime at current rates, not a vital question).
So now all the forces and groups aligned against each other can work together to produce energy and get rich (to not harness avarice is foolish).
With energy money inflation actually bends the energy cost curve Down instead of up.
The more money the cheaper your bills. As it is so valuable intrinsically- in fact nearly barter – for the first time scarcity of money (say, Gold) does not increase its value.
The world needs 2 things to survive; energy and money.
This solves both.
But then how would governments and banks “create wealth” that they need in order to buy votes and maintain the power needed to rule as an “elite” insulated from the effects of their solipsistic (axhole) policies?
Any commodity based currency would have similar effect – the way to create wealth would then be to produce useful products – dirty working people would gain and elites path to keeping power would require the consent of the governed, rather than playing Santa Claus/warlord with wealth exploited from children (debt), retirees who have intelligently saved (inflation), foreigners – (trade for our shitty I.O.U.s or else)
Thermonuclear fusion can produce awesome amounts of energy. Alas, despite having the capacity for seventy years now, mankind lacks anything approaching fine control over producing such energy. Until such finesse is obtained, it’s my hope that mankind will refrain from using this energy source.
Anybody else seen that meme,
“Hiroshima was the equivalent of 15 kilotons of TNT.
An LNG carrier ship carries a volatile payload the equivalent of 773 kilotons of TNT”
Houston oil.
Lake Charles chemicals.
Port Arthur grain ships.
Side-by-side on the Gulf coast.
How many LNG floating bombs are out there, anyways?
Rotterdam, Qatar, Hormuz, where else?
NY Port Authority? Long Beach?
A Navy guy told me giant pipes stick up out of the water off Iraq’s coast, refilling oil ships one after the other. The continuous line of ships is backed up to the horizon, night and day.
One “accident” or “payback”
Will stop LNG tanker operations permanently. Murphys law.
The comparison of raw energy may be accurate, but it’s a false comparison with potential explosive power under nearly any conceivable conditions. That shipload of LNG would have to be combined with the perfect amount of air (oxygen) and then be set alight. Yes, it would make an impressive boom. But the chances of being able to obtain that perfect mixture are virtually impossible. Even if one torpedoed the ship with an incendiary device, at best it would light off an impressive fire and probably kill all aboard, but would burn more as an uncontrolled fire, than a massive explosion. It’s possible the tanks would burst (e.g. sometimes happens with rail tanker fire) but it’d still be relatively “slow.”
Alzaebo: “An LNG carrier ship carries a volatile payload the equivalent of 773 kilotons of TNT”
If you explode a U-235 bomb in the general vicinity of a few cubic centimeters [liters?] of hydrogen, don’t you get a fusion bomb?
So what would happen if you exploded a fusion bomb in the general vicinity of an LNG carrier ship?
Would it incinerate the entire earth?
For the record, I’m not exactly joking here.
With the very first U-235 nuke, in 1945, at Alamogordo, they were ackshually worried that it might set the entire atmosphere on fire.
https://www.insidescience.org/manhattan-project-legacy/atmosphere-on-fire
You cant initiate a proton-proton fusion reaction with a nuclear weapon. Thermonuclear weapons use deuterium and tritium.
TripleV: “Thermonuclear weapons use deuterium and tritium.”
Yeah, but I’m wondering what would happen if you detonated a fusion bomb in an LNG tanker; would the petroleum hydrocarbons start fusing with one another, and incinerate the entire planet?
There can’t be more than a few liters of hydrogen in a fusion bomb [possibly highly dense, under great pressure, and hovering down around 0 degrees Kelvin?].
So what would happen if instead of just a few liters of hydrogen, you had several bajillion barrels of hydrogen at your disposal?
And they mock rednecks with “Hey, watch this.”
Just for shits and giggles, here is a recent post from Fred Reed concerning Europe’s passivity. I think I found it at one of Anglin’s recent post, in that case directed at the Germans.
https://barelyablog.com/fred-reed-a-diagnostic-letter-to-our-euro-peon-vassals-who-are-dumber-than-the-better-class-of-nematode/
Laugh if you will, fellow Yankees, but do it nervously, as we are not much better than those Europeans.
Anglin, (((Weev))), Richard Spencer, Mike Enoch
These are all lucky fellows who have escaped crippling (((lawfare))) and prosecution by mysterious and inexplicable means that didnt work for anyone else caught in the same net for the same things
Basically
Ray Epps : Conservative Boomers :: Anglin (etc) : DR
I hope we’re smarter than the boomers and don’t follow them into the capitol
Yeah I don’t trust Anglin. Richard Spencer discredited himself long ago too. They are ready-made stereotypes that are used to discredit legitimate concerns of our people.
The problem with any “message” sent by anyone is that the Tapioca Joe regime is just too goddamn dumb to understand it. Short of something extremely kinetic, followed by an unambiguous declaration of “Yeah, you dumbasses, WE did it!”, I just don’t know how one communicates with whoever is in charge at the moment in Washington. Diplomacy on even a “drunk frat bros playing Risk” level depends on a modicum of intelligence and self-awareness, and nobody in DC has that.
Severian: “the Tapioca Joe regime is just too goddamn dumb”
Three thoughts on the Tater Joe administration:
1) They have drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to almost empty [much of it sold to the Chicoms, who, via Hunter, launder 10% back to The Big Guy].
2) They have sent yuge numbers of irreplaceable weapons systems to Khazaria [irreplaceable because the manufacturing plants – tooling and skilled workers – have long since been sold for scrap and/or retired], i.e. they’re doing to our weapons systems precisely what they did to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
3) Tater Joe is going around mumbling to people that, “No one fornicates with a Biden.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32L1qmI8ZWg
If that’s not a psychological “projection” on the part of a senile old pervert with decades of molestation under his belt, then I don’t what is.
There’s a reason that ethnic stereotypes exist, the reason of course being that ethnic stereotypes are valid & predictive & describe Reality as it ackshually exists.
If I were in the Financial Industrial Complex, I’d adopt a 110% ethnic-stereotype-driven model for my Longs & Shorts, and I’d quickly own the entire market.
The stupidity of the Biden Regime is equaled only by their sense of entitlement.
Had I sat down a year ago to devise a plan to ensure the demise of the American Empire, the demilitarization of NATO and the impoverishment of the West with a lagniappe of a de-industialized Germany, I could do no better. Barry the Kenyans admonition to never under-estimate the ability of Biden to fuck something up was sage advice.
Devil’s Advocate, the short term price increases will be unsustainable once Putin is remove and replaced with a pro-Western force and Russia “decolonized” per the neo-cons.
All sorts of places including the Duran paint Russian forces simply fleeing and giving up in Donbass, and now Crimea. That Russia simply has no answer for Ukranian advances (suddenly and when they fought them off or advanced before). Something is definitely weird there which I do not understand, but I think the Regime leadership is high on their own supply and figure they will have Zelensky’s forces in Moscow by Christmas! That seems to be the plan.
The other weird thing I cannot figure is the Obama/Biden enthusiasm for Iran and the Iran nuke deal. Its been US Policy since well, the Carter Doctrine, that the US would maintain absolute military dominance in the Gulf and keep the Iranians down. See Reagan’s sinking of the Iranian Navy in a day. This kept the Saudis on side and the oil flowing cheaply. Now Dems seem obsessed with throwing that away for Iran. Simply black dislike for Israel and a desire to stick it to them operating on a genetic level? Much of the Dem Leadership is now black at the staff level. A hidden fountain of money somewhere in the deal for insiders, exclusive import rights for Iranian oil or something? I don’t know but its weird.
Russia is definitely getting its ass kicked now, when it should not be, I just don’t know what they are doing. Its very weird and I don’t understand it.
Oh good, Whiskey is predicting a Russian rout!
By the iron law of Whiskey predictions this means nothing of the kind will or can ever happen. Was getting a little bummed out by mixed reports of Russian progress stalling, now feel much better knowing the Ukrainian hebraic dildocracy cannot possibly win.
What is “the Duran?” Is that a Duran Duran reboot without Simon Le Bon?
re: Iran Iran— I think Obama was a crypto-anti-Zionist at heart, forced to say Israel-happy stuff not because of his own party or blacks but in order to place a check on the ZOGOP freaks going on “Hannity” nightly to talk about mayoral races in Beersheba. Of course, he also personally profits from the Iran nuke welfare but come on, he is a politician. You thought he was some kind of itinerant religious leader?
https://theduran.locals.com/
I listen to them on my daily drive. Good links to Brian at The New Atlas, Military Summary and my fave The Barnes Law guy.
My understanding is that the Ukrainians have mostly been fighting against militia forces, have lost tens of thousands of troops (to minimal Russian losses), and that, with the annexation of the Eastern provinces, the regular Russian Army will be moving in. I suspect that this will all be over by the end of December. The only question being where the Russian Army chooses to stop.
That is my educated guess, but none of us have enough information to form any kind of concrete conclusions. I believe 25% of what the Russians say, 0% of what the Ukrainians say, and -∞% of what Western Media/Intelligence says.
Mcleod: “I believe 25% of what the Russians say, 0% of what the Ukrainians say, and -∞% of what Western Media/Intelligence says.”
I still worry to death about our Russian Christian Brothers, heading into battle wielding aging 1980s/1990s technology, and finding themselves going up against smart weapons which are communicating with d@mned near infinite satellite telemetry that interacts with their guidance systems, and possibly even sporting some rudimentary self-contained real-time A.I. in the missiles themselves.
The Frankfurt School will never stop laughing at us until we put an end to these Brother Wars, once and for all.
You seem to have forgotten who was hitching a ride on Russian Rockets for 20 years. Then there’s this.
https://www.dw.com/en/russias-hypersonic-missiles-what-you-need-to-know/a-61204404
Putin’s mistake has been in keeping withing lines which he proscribed too narrowly. I gather he’s getting some heat from an increasing number in the Kremlin.
Let’s see where we are at Thanksgiving.
How often has Z talked about Gell-Mann amesia? Have you learned nothing? You can’t think that you’re getting the truth about the Ukraine when everything else you’re being told is a lie, can you?
Come on.
Is everyone who’s downvoting Whiskey illiterate? The first two words of his comment…
It is true that Russia seems to be *unnecessarily* failing to win, allowing US/EU to escalate—against its own people, mostly—and passively (by Russian standards) accepting the blame, etc.
We should wonder why.
If you were Putin, when would you have nuked all the NATO capitals? I’d have done it in 2017.
I’ll bite.
So far, Russia has used an outnumbered force of mostly B and C-Tier units to fight Ukraine and elements of NATO that are backed by US support.
Those units would include the DPR and LPR militias, the Chechens, Wagner Group, some upraded police battalions, and even a few Syrians.
Using just that force backed by their artillery, Russia has managed to severely damage the Ukrainian Army, empty NATO inventories, and even cut deeply into inventories normally reserved for front-line US forces.
I agree.
but the main bulk of the Russian army is where? There are only a few in Syria.
And why have conscription if you have 600k troops and your modern tank battalions somewhere?
It seems very strange.
The Russians just concluded exercises in the Far East with 50,000 troops with observers from India, China etc etc. The war is being fought on three leveles.
1, The military spat in Ukraine,
2, The economic war of sanctions and sabotage
3. The Geo-political war of alliances and common interests between countries.
Mark Webber shared a quote in a great discussion on Guide to Kulchar. Highly recommend his weekly reviews, btw.
“Big countries do what they can.
Small countries do what they must.”
It was true centuries ago and remains true today.
sorry, quick correction:
Strong countries vs. Weak countries, not big vs. small.
I recommend that podcast by the way. Frodi’s Guide to Kulchur, with Mark Weber once a week, every Tuesday. You can listen on Odysee or Bitchute.
Melissa: “Strong countries do what they can.
Weak countries do what they must.”
From the male perspective, the extent to which all of human affairs quickly reveals itself as being nothing more than one meta-Darwinian phenomenon battling for some abstraction of breeding success vis-a-vis another meta-Darwinian phenomenon’s abstraction of breeding success is just about hopelessly depressing.
Men invade.
Women invite.
Y’all Front Holes have it easy.
It couldn’t get less stereotyped if it tried, as the EU’s latest sanctions on oil and crypto currency, and metals and paper have U-turned on diamonds after the “Antwerp Diamond Centre lobbyists” objected.
So you can de-industrialize your economies, freeze and starve your populations but the diamond lobby seemingly have more sway over the EU than the entire energy and industrial sectors of all of Europe and Germany.
They also stopped the sanctions on matzah crackers, gefilte fish, and that gross wine those creatures drink on Passover.
That is damn-near perfect.
It would be comedic if it wasn’t so serious in its other aspects.
Interesting the Saudi’s are trying to raise American gas prices a month before elections.
True, if it was just about the money they might have waited
This is one of the most unsettling articles you have written. And you write some scary stuff. I’m not calling you a fear monger as you are highly rational. This is highly probable.
Lay in some stores of rice and pasta. Fill up your freezers with venison.
I would guess that long before we’re having to hunt deer to survive, the American people will demand a return to shale oil and opening up every other form of energy we’ve got. Americans have that advantage. A lot of Europe is in a rougher spot.
the American people don’t demand shit. they are told by the American media rage machine what they want. The media will blame putin for any a real shortage. The media rage machine will tell people to hate putin and demand regime change-war. The MIC will comply. The words “domestic production ” will never once be mentioned on any media anywhere . so it will never enter the mind of normie, left or right .
“Fill up your freezers with venison.”
I would suggest jerky since it doesn’t require refrigeration.
Jack: Have any good recipes (not too spicy) to share?
Jerky? Yes. Slice meat about 1/8-1/4″ thick X 4″ long
x 3″ wide, soak it in this marinade for two hours:
1 cup dark brown sugar
1 cup soy sauce
3 tablespoons Worcestershire sauce
1 tablespoon smoked paprika
1 teaspoon unseasoned meat tenderizer
1 teaspoon freshly ground black pepper
1 teaspoon red pepper flakes
1 teaspoon onion powder
½ teaspoon garlic powder
1 cup apple cider
Spread on foil in oven preheated to 180 degrees, cook two hours, flip and cook another hour to hour and a half. Make sure the slices do not touch and if it isn’t leathery and dry leave it in longer.
I use a simple coil dryer but those are hard to come by recently for some reason or another and this works in an oven.
With venison, always remove the silvery connective tissue. Do that prior to marination.
I store it in plastic sealable bags inside a glass container. Use quart bags and put several in each container.
Jack: Thanks! I will try that.
Do you have a preference for any particular cut if using beef?
I’ll give it a shot.
Pemmican is even better
So where’s the recipe?
In response to the OPEC+ cut, the Dem wing of the Uniparty has dusted off a bill from the GOPe wing of the Uniparty that would strip Saudi, UAE, and probably some other states of their US-supplied defense materials, support, and training:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-dems-introducing-gop-inspired-bill-strip-defenses-saudi-arabia-uae-following-opec-oil-cut
Pass that, and we may see the petrodollar get euthanized in weeks, maybe even days.
So you get these guys to buy stuff from Russia/China.
I can’t see how that helps them at all unless the plan is to effectively go to war with Russia/China and OPEC all at once.
Well, the Cloud people running the GAE seem to be acting under the delusion that it is the year 1946, when the US actually did control something like three-quarters of world manufacturing, energy, and gold reserves.
Unfortunately, many of the commenters on the posted article also seem to exist under the same belief as they are being frog-marched into world communism.
I agree with this, Geese. And just like D.C. is partying like it is 1945, Putin apparently thinks he is dealing with a rational West like he did while stationed in East Germany. There are lots of misperceptions, and those could prove fatal to those of us with no say in the matter.
Apparently the events of early Seventies have been forgotten. This time OPEC actually has other markets that could fill the void.
I can’t see that bill going anywhere, the MIC will put a quick stop to it to protect themselves. The thing in the Ukraine will likely be bad enough for their foreign sales in the future anyway. But they will be going great guns just to replace the stuff wasted in the Ukraine.
I’d imagine that for the Rest of World getting unfiltered news the last few months have been scary for US client arms buyers. Overly complex, expensive weapons seem to have been handled by Russia pretty well. Espcially considering just how restrained Russia has been up until now.
The flip side is that the Saudis are not all that happy with the performance and support of their Patriot missile batteries.
Earlier this year the Houthi managed to use drones to severely damage an oil storage facility and a desalination plant. More humorously they nearly managed to shut down Saudi’s F1 race.
D.C. isn’t getting America’s Best and Brightest are they?
“we will soon learn who is better equipped to survive the first energy war of the 21st century.”
This reminds of something AJ says. He talks about how the ‘globalists’ (who people here would probably call GAE) are arrogant, as if they have something up their sleeve. He seems to think it’s weapons 30 years advanced of what anybody else has, but it could just as well be US petroleum reserves, which haven’t been exploited to the point they could’ve been. That could allow the US to fight the war of attrition Z is talking about.
The sensible and humane thing would be to be energy independent, as people on the right have been saying for a long time. But, no, there are forever wars to fight, because the people in control of GAE just like making war, I guess.
I dont know about that, meaning their arrogance as a signal they might be holding an ace up their sleeve.
Because the arrogance is endemic to the political class, from the school boards to the White House, and not every school board member or councilman or city mayor can be privy to the deepest weapons secrets in DC. Rather, their arrogance flows from their sanctimony and fully permeates and directs them.
Add in that they can’t shoot straight and keep making major blunders on the world stage.
I think if anyone knows the true inner workings of the DC crowd it would be the Saudis. They’re the kind of guys people tell their secrets to because that is how those people work. And that the Saudis are betting against the GAE is quite telling.
I agree that’s more likely, since a lot seems to be going sideways for them. Just speculating in the event it isn’t pure chutzpah. Cover all bases 🙂
The dollar is the key. But I’d argue that it has more going for it than just energy being priced in dollars, though that’s certainly what helped it become what it is today. However, I’d also argue that the US has less control over the dollar than people think.
The dollar is ensconced in the global banking system. (As are T-bills which are the ultimate collateral for now.) But here’s the thing. The Fed doesn’t print dollars. The banks (US and foreign) print dollars. The Eurodollar system is a force of its own, controlled by no one. Yes, the Fed and Treasury can influence the banks, but it can’t control them.
The banks don’t use dollars because they love the US; they use dollars and T-bills because everyone uses dollars and everyone accepts T-bills as collateral. That’s both the opportunity and challenge facing Russia, China, etc. The global banking system has no loyalty to the US, but the dollar/T-bills are so ingrained in the system that it will take a huge amount of force to dislodge them.
Sure, you can start pricing energy in other currencies, but if everyone just immediately takes those currencies and exchanges them back to dollars, the dollar remains supreme. Also, what about collateral. Something needs to compete with T-bills, the most liquid and accepted collateral in the world by a country mile. There’s no collateral that even compares to the T-bill.
The Chinese, Russians and others face a monumental task in getting the global banking system to start using other currencies and “safe” collateral. That said, if they don’t, they will remain under the thumb of the Americans.
Yes. The person who “downvoted” you doesn’t know much about the financial system. We won’t live to see the demise of the dollar/Eurodollar system. But our kids will.
The biggest danger to the dollar is . . . the dollar. At least for now.
Something needs to compete with T-bills
—
For as little as we, and everyone, thinks of GAE, there’s no one who would prefer Chinese sovereign debt over Treasuries.
That was then, this is now. I’m no economist, but I always thought that the dollar and from that, treasuries, were desirable because they were always the “cleanest dirty shirt” in the laundry. Given the current state of the US economy, who is now running the government, and our deteriorating demographics, can we continue to say such? In short, are we at an inflection point of some sort wrt world confidence and alternatives to the dollar?
Look at US with all of our problems and compare it to:
Europe
Even worse demographics – birthrate, Muslims and soon Africans
Terrible economy
Few energy resources
Weird currency
Leftist politics
EU bureaucracy
Japan
Terrible demographics
Economy too small to be world leader
Debt to gdp to the moon
Unbelievably energy dependent
China
Corrupt
No real bond market
Terrible demographics
Energy dependent
Economy in trouble and likely will stagnate long-term
The US is a disaster – except when compared to everyone else.
There’s only one other collateral as accepted as the T-bill. German bunds. But the size of that market is a joke compared to treasuries. That’s why European banks are always running low on collateral for Euro lending.
That’s a warranted and needed reality check, and why this is likely to be a longer twilight struggle than most anticipate. It also ties into something contradictory I’ve noticed about the Russo-Ukraine war: the United States lost the initial salvo in the economic war, badly, and Russia has grossly underperformed in the kinetic war. Those two things should be in reverse, and are a reminder of why wars never go as anticipated. The wildcard here is nukes, and that is a solid reason to be mortified.
I still maintain Russia is not even trying to win. They sort of got to some agreed point and basically stopped.
For whatever reason, its extremely unclear.
It seems a war to create just enough churn to do the stuff in Europe, followed by a withdrawal.
Very, very odd. You would have thought 100k or so of those troops doing exercises in Siberia or their tank divisions would have been shipped over, but apparently not and no one on even the Russian side seems very clear why.
Russia is losing is just GAE propaganda, so relentless that its even soaked into the minds of dissidents who usually know better. They just annexed a region full of ~8mm of their own willing ethnics – in a strategically important fertile land the size of colorado. The US has gained zero territory while spilling oceans of blood and treasure in all its self proclaimed “victories” it keeps having to flee from.
Russia is losing ON PURPOSE is crossing over the boundary into true schizo posting. Most things are lies but everything is not a lie. World events actually happen and the bad guys are not all powerful and aligned for the sole purpose of some kind of world historical troll on the few sane people.
Ease on back from that ledge my man. Everyone everywhere is no cahoots all the time.
Would you care to offer a hypothesis as to why no re-enforcements, or aircraft or tanks have been moved into the region out of the estimated 800k regular army Russia has?
The land they annexed has been in their hands since late July with no movement.
The Russian telegram channels are as confused as I am.
e.g Igor Girkin, FSB and ex army who was a major player in the crimea annexation has just done a series of pieces on “betrayal or collapse” of the Russian MoD.
t.me/s/strelkovii
One should not be closed minded about facts even if they are undesirable.
There is no reasonable explanation… other than that Putin is a reptile person and he received telepathic orders from the reptile overmind on the moon to intentionally lose a war to the other reptile regimes controlled by the moon. The reptile overmind has absolute power over every nation but merely orchestrates all these events for the regular viewing enjoyment of the other all powerful moon beings. Believing anything other than this would be nuts.
WWG1WGAWWEMONDAYNITRO
Come on man, you’re a smart guy… this is really not the way.
@NoOneAtAll
Why degenerate into a typical shitlib ridicule response to avoid looking at facts. Its reptiles jeeze, I thought people got past the CNN level.
Russia invades with a force of mainly militia/chechens/PMC with 50k or so regular Russian troops. So not really risking their own people.
They grind through slower than expected, but still get to most of the territory for the 2 republics. Then they stop. Its now July.
OK – then Ukraine is flooded with arms from US/EU, conscripts 700k men, 20k mercs and who knows how many SF from US/EU and spends 2 months doing training and shipping equipment through the country on the rail network to the fronts. Russia does nothing about this.
Russia is still shipping gas and oil to Europe while this is happening and paying Ukraine transit fees.
Ukraine starts shelling Belgorad in Russia, nothing. carbombs in moscow, nadda, Then Ukr masses troops and pushes into huge areas where there are seemingly no forces defense deployed. Why not its not like you can’t spot 10k troop buildups. No response apart from 2 Kaliber missiles on some power stations.
Russia now states it is fighting all of NATO and EU, yet still keeps sending gas, oil to countries that are sending weapons to kill its own troops and maintaining the equipment flow. It is STILL PAYING Ukraine transit fees.
Then has referendum for territory it does not entirely control. Ukraine builds up more bridgeheads on various fronts (as is plainly shown on the pro-Russia maps), no responses. Then pushes quickly into these areas that are now Russia. No response. Just keep regrouping to avoid losses.
Has a conscription. But why do this if you have 500lk soldiers in Russia deployed elsewhere, yet do not choose to move them to the front, nor any equipment? Quite a few of the telegram channels report the conscript units riding around on trains without moving to the front. Where is the main body of the Russian army?
Blow up pipeline?, they just keep shipping that gas/oil and paying Ukraine fees during a war.
As I said they don’t look like they are trying to win.
Maybe that will change, but at the moment I am not seeing it.
As a comparison take a look at the second Chechen war, Russia did not hold back and fought a combined war approach with infantry, air, armour and artillery.
They took 3 months and flattened a lot of the country.
I say Putin is fighting a turf battle for the best place he can get within the Beast system, as he certainly can’t change it. They’ll Hitler him if he tries a serious alternative.
Geese’s question re vaxxing the troops may not be obesience; those biolabs in UKR are still up and running, ready to launch a new or anti-Slavic variant.
India has shut down its banks for 3 weeks as Modi prepares for digital rupees.
For me, I’m making my bets based on the Z-crowd’s predictions this week, big stuff for me. I’m counting on the long slow grind.
The Beast is emerging, not with a bang (as I thought might happen with Covid), but implacably. This is the long haul of rule, not the flash-bang of revolution.
I say JHK’s Long Emergency. The roads of Rome didn’t collapse in a day.
That’s really bad news out of India because they’ve had a national digital biometric ID system that was launched in 2009:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aadhaar
“This is the long haul of rule, not the flash-bang of revolution.”
Well put, Alzabedo, and plausible.
I honestly don’t know. My best guess is Russia had tried to do it on the cheap (as the US/UK did initially in Iraq) and the Western powers had fortified Ukraine to an unexpected degree just beyond the Donbas. That explains at least the initial part, if true, but certainly not what is happening at the moment.
To hazard another guess, what passes as the West now is far different and far more batshit crazy than what Putin experienced while stationed in East Germany–in service to another batshit crazy ideology. He probably did not anticipate at least some Western elements are suicidal and would risk nuclear war but surely the tranny business, at least, should have alerted him to the widespread madness. The fact he mentions these psychotic things means he is aware of them.
On the flipside, Putin obtained his main objectives a few months ago. Maybe he and the West are pursuing a similar strategy of grinding the other down before redrawing the maps in a way everyone knows will happen? Dunno. I don’t think Putin is intentionally trying to lose, although I can see why that would be the perception, but the current strategy makes no sense at all for all the reasons you laid out. Victory could have been declared in May. Maybe the referendums had to be held first? Dunno, again.
For me, the biggest puzzle is the new-found hostility toward China. I don’t know about Britain, but here the PRC has bribed all the prominent politicians for many years, sometimes rather blatantly, and now those same recipients of unlimited yuan are wanting a war with China? That makes less sense than anything else. If there is some kabuki at play, it orbits around that contradiction.
Long story longer: there is something else going on here, I’ll grant you that, but do not think it is an intentional Russian loss. I can offer no explanation or plausible guess for much of this.
“The dollar is ensconced in the global banking system. (As are T-bills which are the ultimate collateral for now.) ….
The banks don’t use dollars because they love the US; they use dollars and T-bills because everyone uses dollars and everyone accepts T-bills as collateral.”
Fewer countries want to use the dollar and fewer are using it, particularly after seeing how the Americans and Europeans have been behaving towards owners of dollar assets. More countries are moving towards bilateral trade deals, based on barter.
The interest rate on 10-year T-bills is what? 3.76%. And real inflation is what? 16%? Who in his right mind wants to hold them?
The Chinese have no interest in the renminbi being reserve currency. Among other things it means running deficits (current account and/or fiscal).
The dollar system is doomed but no-one is interested in replacing it with their own currency. Bilateral trade based on barter will return, without a hegemonic power.
“Fewer countries want to use the dollar and fewer are using it, particularly after seeing how the Americans and Europeans have been behaving towards owners of dollar assets.”
Right, that’s why the DXY has gone from 95 at the start of the Ukraine war to 112 today. In stressful times, everyone wants dollars and that’s what we’re seeing.
“More countries are moving towards bilateral trade deals, based on barter.”
Wow, there’s nothing more efficient that bartering. Barter economy always switch almost immediately to using a currency. What do you think countries do when they get other currencies? They immediately convert them to dollars. That’s why the Yuan is falling in value.
“The interest rate on 10-year T-bills is what? 3.76%. And real inflation is what? 16%? Who in his right mind wants to hold them?”
Banks do, because they don’t buy them for the interest. They buy them to use as collateral to get short-term loans. That’s why banks buy T-bills with lower interest rates than the could get parking their money at the Fed. Why would they accept a lower interest rate than they could get at the Fed? Because they use T-bills for something other than interest.
“The Chinese have no interest in the renminbi being reserve currency. Among other things it means running deficits (current account and/or fiscal).”
That is mostly true.
“Bilateral trade based on barter will return, without a hegemonic power.”
Barter economies never really existed, at least not for anything past the most simple societies. Currencies always develop and always end up with one currency – the one most used and trusted. There is no other currency and collateral that even comes close to the dollar/T-bills. That’s a fact.
That fact will change over time, but right now, there is nothing to challenge the dollar. Until the BRICs come up with an alternative that works in the real world for many, many years, it’s a dollar world.
Qaddafi was introducing a gold dinar to replace the petrodollar so he was whacked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XShJGAIAZTo
While Americans seem to think of history only going back to 2001 (with progressive exceptions for key events, i.e. 1619, 1865, 1965), the nations of the world have a longer memory.
Saudi Arabia has followed the actions of the US in the region. Their ruling class noticed how US interests resulted in the fall of Libya and Iraq, along with numerous other countries in the region. Iran in particular have felt the gentle embrace of our “liberal democracy” since the 1950s.
They see the future multipolar world with America not calling all the shots and are acting accordingly. The US should not be surprised by this, but we do not have sane and serious people ruling over us.
Old but true quote: Nation’s do not have friends, only interests.
I think they are very very sane. they are also Evil on a level that is hard to comprehend for the average person. If you look at all the “insanity ” from the lens that they want to eliminate the legacy pop’ of the western world it seems remarkably consistent, logical, and very comprehensive. Evil feins insanity and ignorance as a diversion and defense.
If the Saudis pushed too hard, what’s to stop the USA from pulling some dirty tricks? Like agitating for regime change in Saudi Arabia? I’m sure there are a lot of other tactics to push them around.
I guess in the past we liked the royal family because it was stable. And we didn’t want the oil falling into the hands of the Soviets. But with the USSR gone, maybe we don’t care as much?
I’m not hoping for any of this, I’m just saying we have a ruthless and cruel bunch in control now.
That is the reason why SA is pulling away from the US and building key partnerships with other countries that align with the purpose of not getting Democratized by force in the future.
That makes sense for the Saudis but can’t the USA still destroy the ruling regime if they so choose?
The Chinese and the Indians can’t protect them from our military. They would almost have to agree to become a protectorate of Russia under its nuclear umbrella. Just spitballing, not sure if that would even work.
Robert,
The threat of the Petro Dollar’s nullification might be the strategic play here for SA. If through back channel diplomacy, the US is made to understand that too many countries would support that if they attempt a Democricide on SA through coup, or direct attack.
That is just one scenario I can think of.
Balance sheets have two sides. Most of the Saudi assets (sovereign wealth fund etc.) are in dollars too.
I’m sure that the Saudis have plenty of compromat on our elite to protect themselves.
The casual throwing about of the phrase “regime change” in the media and from high level political elites is truly disturbing.
Pretty sure Putin understand he has captured the gaze of the Eye of Sauron and is treating it as serious a cancer diagnosis.
Xi is watching as well; at least China has been smart enough to grok that an “open internet” platform will turn your country into another satrap of GAE within a decade.
Nearly all of the Biden/Dem energy “policy” is driven by domestic politics. These jokers just want to punish redneck/GOP oil patch workers/states and the big oil executives who donate to GOP. The “Green” stuff is convenient camo.
Meanwhile, the Dem donors have loaded up on every imaginable “Green” scam windmill-battery-algae-fusion-biomass-solar startup and VC fund. So the graft redirects the dollars back toward Dem donors. And what’s worse, they then go begging for oil from Venezuela and Saudi. Why? Because this offshore oil money can be “raked” for campaign contributions and won’t help the GOP.
It’s pretty sickening because people in poor countries will starve as a result. But by God, the Dems will show those rednecks who is in charge!
WADR , who do you think “Dem donors” are?
I am sure that the Saudis are aware that the Russia price cap is a prelude to attempted total price control worldwide for energy by the G7 countries in order to extend and nationalize the energy sources in the new reset.
Its like the news about Halbeck writing an oped about Washington profiteering from its LNG at the expense of Germany (but only after they thought they had cut the Russian pipeline off completely).
A lot of people seem to think its about squabbling about the situation, but its obvious its just a kabuki play by the EU/US in cahoots to push the idea of the EU taking over and controlling all the European energy market directly from its member states and the private energy companies. You can’t have a total energy reset if you don’t control the resource availability.
I wish people had a little more second order thinking
Great point. Fighting cartel with monopsony! Just like Econ 201 class…..they will put the best economists in the G7 on the job immediately.
Let’s see if this lasts the winter.
There is also a new pipeline in the offing via Boznia/Serbia that could be up and running in a few months. So I expect the EU/US trying to block that to maintain their position
I would not be surprised if they kick off some local agitation to disrupt the progress.
Right on Trumpton. Libya, Syria, and Qatar all had their toes stepped on when proposing various pipelines that would alter the energy flow of Europe. If I recall, I think at one point there was a mega-proposal from Libya that would have tied Qatar, UAE, Syria, and Libyan products into one system; but again, that was a while ago, and I do not follow Middle East politics closely. But I wouldn’t doubt it led to, “We came, we saw, he died.” Qaddafi had to go!
Also, the whole Bosnian war hinged on a pipeline, if I recall correctly.
Eloi, that was the backbone of the proposed Mediterranean Union, wasn’t it?
The EU is dead. It requires a fountain of money from Germany, which in turn relied upon German industrial exports, which in turn relied upon massive amounts of CHEAP Russian gas. No more Mittelstand, no more money. No money to buy off: Cyprus, Greece, Malta, Italy, Czech Republic, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Poland, etc.
Without a fountain of money, what does the EU offer? Nothing. And sheer survival this winter will have smaller nations making deals with Russia to get oil and gas. At any price. Just to keep the lights on. Freezing/Starving people in a European winter make for scary Romanian style revolutions. Where maximum leaders find themselves in front of a wall, Ceaucescu style.
Seems they have decided stamping on everyone’s face with a boot is a replacement for money.
It’s the EU version of BLM riots.
We pulled that stunt in the oil-rich Middle East. The “US” breaks potential competitors, leaving them weak and not a threat. We’re a mercenary state for the multinational Davos / bankster class.
Heck, that defines the 20th Century: Europe, Russia, South America, South Africa, South Asia (the Seven Tigers collapse of the Thai baht.)
“Of course, the Russians are a member of OPEC+ and they have their reasons for supporting a production cut.”
Among those reasons is the sabotage of Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2, even if it reportedly left a functional pipeline available. Additionally, the other oil producers do not appreciate terrorism against energy infrastructure regardless of the reason. Make no mistake: that act of economic terrorism made it an easy choice for most if not all of the countries that gave Washington the middle finger. Way to go, Vickki!
A dog not barking is Israel. It has rejected sanctions against Russia and has announced it is seeking “other economic options,” i.e., maybe being part of BRICS. Our Greatest Ally, in fact, is quite friendly with China, to the point of selling United States military technology to it from time to time. Another thing that, for some odd reason or another, did not get much reporting was when the Israeli Prime Minister attempted to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia; apparently D.C. got his mind right enough about it to at least shut up. The spectacle of D.C. shipping arms to both Israel and Ukraine, while the former is not publicly supportive of the latter, is something to behold. Per the treacherous nature of the country and its people, Israel is going with the Strong Horse while squeezing the last dimes out of the weak one.
Yesterday was an utter humiliation for the Empire and the Biden puppet regime, make no mistake about it. It is a safe bet the European satrapies are thinking about other options while behind closed doors.
I have said all along that this event will be viewed as an inflection point. It was a clarifying event. It is like in a relationship when during a fight one side says something true that the other side only suspected. Everything changes in an instant. Not just for the one party, but for both parties.
It was (or should be) a clarifying event for multiple players. In the blink of an eye, the Europeans lost any illusion of their place in the world. They are our vassal states. You work for us and no one else, bitches.
I actually think that they believed that they were mostly independent, partners to the US. Sure, they were junior partners, they believed, but partners all the same. Now, that fantasy has been stripped away.
Interesting to watch the reactions. Olaf Scholz has been silent on the matter. The reason is his green faction is bought and paid for by Washington and they are okay with this result. If he steps out of line, his government collapses. This is a thing everyone knows and no one says out loud.
I keep waiting for the return of anti-Americanism. This was the domain of the Left during the Cold War. It looks like an opportunity for the Right, but the people running right-wing parties are not terribly bright. Still, there is a trillion dollar bill lying on the sidewalk in the form of a new anti-Americanism.
I don’t disagree, but my gut feeling is that most right-wingers are too instinctively patriotic and they cling to the belief this mess can be rolled back with an election or two.
These beliefs tend to keep them from even noticing the bill on the sidewalk.
Anti-Americanism was quite popular in Germany in the 80s and 90s. “Ami Go Home” was all over the place. But, as you say, it was a Left-wing thing.
That seems to have died out for some reason. But there’s certainly an underlying desire (or was) in the Germans to get out from under our shadow. The French have always felt that way. The British seem very happy to be our little brother.
This whole affair should be a turning point for Europe. It should mark their finally breaking away from American dominance after 75 years. It’s time.
@citizen
makes one wonder of the anti-americanism was a trojan to cement in the green’s into that part of the political spectrum during that period.
Much like the sudden large anti-war, anti-nuclear movements in Europe in hindsight look like a controlled takeover to push out any grass roots.
Macron at his lowest point, in slight danger of a popular uprising that the military seemed to have threatened to join, started making some patriotic anti-American rhetorical moves against big tech, the imposition of a foreign concept of race, etc.
Then he stopped, as if someone bigger than him had sternly said, “No. Tell the police to beat the protestors. Nothing else.” And there was nothing else.
I don’t think anyone is failing to do anything—that can be done. Yet.
This is a reply to trumpton above. Since the CIA was running the Red Brigades, Baader Meinhof and other supposed revolutionary groups as a part of Operation Gladio until the end of the Soviet Union.
You can safely say that Gladio has continued and the Greens are the instrument now. They’ll gladly destroy their countries in service to the GAE.
Reminds me of this comic that I’ve been looking for an excuse to post:
https://www.toadlickgames.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/db393ff10573053a908d94039a658f1deb534db1d6d0887c4c2d8b7ab2dee801.jpeg
What was telling was the support for US motions at the UN condemning Russia.
March 150 plus nations
September 53.
That’s called a clue.
Europeans got a clarifying moment but so have Americans within the borders of the anchor component of the Empire numerous times over the years. Will the Europeans show more fortitude? I honestly do not know the answer although my hunch is they will not. As always, the wildcards are France and Italy since both have a history of widespread civil disobedience, hence my uncertainty. Americans also retain some of that spirit but appear to be cowed by the prospect of state violence and personal economic destruction.
This winter will be clarifying in other ways, perhaps.
Gazprom has just announced that they can still operate one branch of NS2 to Germany without much delay,as it seems they did not destroy both strings of the pipeline, like they did with NS1.
I wonder if
A) that will get traction in Germany as news
B) what the response will be as now the US/EU are left with the odd situation of Russia saying they can still run the pipeline at a reduced capacity, despite Russia being accused of being the ones who blew it up.
It seems the game is not quite closed off in that direction – so what next another explosion?
You couldn’t make that shit up. As to your musings, expect a lot of environmental and safety concerns about the extant pipeline to be expressed in the German and other Western propaganda organs. The quickly debunked story about defective engineering and material quality was released to seed that narrative, probably within an hour of realizing the oopsie involved here. We have arrived at the point where “our” nations aren’t even capable of half-assed terrorism.
It was built by Western engineers and construction firms. Just sayin’. But you’re right that this may not stop the propaganda.
Following on from my comment about Germany now complaining about high LNG cost from the US they are also faced with a possible political solution that they assumed was taken off the table.
Talk about backing yourself into a worse position. He should have kept his mouth shut until they confirmed all the branches were toast.
They seem in such a rush to ram this total control through.
And what if it was the Poles who did the sabotage (albeit with US/UK help)? The birth of another Polish joke.
That NS2 pipeline which is said to be flooded is still useable. Even if it can’t be repaired, that pipeline can be used as a receptacle or tube for a second, smaller pipeline.
I think Gazprom said that one string of the pipeline was undamaged. So it just looks like the US just did not blow it up entirely.
http://www.rt.com/business/564148-novak-nord-stream-supplies-europe/
Its interesting that they waited until the EU started pushing “we have no choice but coordinated control for central purchasing” came out as the next step.
Now they have another option facing them as well.
Nicely played, you big dumb gas station attendants, you.
I’ve been under the impression that since the Belt & Road Initiative got off the ground pre-covid, the “Pan-Asians” from Japan to Johannesburg have been discussing a post-American world and the end of the petrodollar. If that ‘s the case, this coming hegemon may be wondering what to do about an American administration that’s not just corrupt and incompetent but truly insane.
It/they may seek to make common cause with the growing segment of woke America that wants, suicidally, to put an end to America and make the former Red, White and Blue a dumping ground for the world’s poor, ill and mentally unstable.
imbroglio: That America is already here. Stories/headlines I’ve shared just the past two days: A Ghi kills a Chhedda at Purdue; an MS 13 guy kills a Sikh trucking cartel family in California; a Dervish kills an engineering professor in Arizona; a Juice curator mentors a black at ugly modern ‘art’ museum and black gets Juice fired because rayciss; a group of White kids sue Montana to stop using fossil fuels because climate change.
The portion of America that is White and mentally sounds decreases daily. Don’t bet your family’s safety on its past or present promises.
So the Russians pumped the fake Russiagate story so that Biden would Win?
Why can’t more of our “journalists” visit Saudi embassies?
He wasn’t a journalist, he was a propagandist who worked for an intelligence agenc- oh wait, yeah, never mind.
To me, the more interesting development is the tightening of Russia/Turkey relations. The Saudis were always going to go with the best deal (see India), but the Turks? There’s historical bad blood, and then there’s the bad blood between the Russians and the Turks.
Personally, I’d have thrown the Turks out of NATO when they refused to let the 4th infantry division through Turkey when we invaded Iraq. But then I’d have never invaded Iraq, and I’d have left NATO in 1991. So, there’s that.
You can’t throw the Turks out of NATO, their army is far too big and their location too strategic, the Turks know this and it allows them to be assholes playing a double game
Agreed. You only need to look at a map and see how the Black Sea connects to the world’s oceans to understand that NATO without Turkey would be pointless.*
(*Pointless as an anti-Russian military alliance. Now as an international money-laundering operation…)
The EU is also considering sanctioning Turkey as a NATO member, which sounds awkward.
Chaos in NATO is the completely predictable outcome of an “alliance” that ultimately seeks to absorb every nation on the planet.
A fair few enmities in the Middle East seem to be becoming recognized as relatively minor difficulties that can be resolved in order to perhaps get out from the US Boot that’s been on their throat for 70 years.
You can’t beat having a common enemy as a way to discover other commonalities.
Pull up this map: https://tinyurl.com/yhzrxune
What you will notice if you look at the eastern border with Ukraine is that Hungary shares a border with that country of almost 100 miles. Just north of Hungary is Slovakia, and that border with Ukraine is more than 100 miles in length. Neither Hungary nor Slovakia are openly antagonistic toward Russia. Now look at the border Ukraine shares with Belarus and Russia. Ukraine is vulnerable to attack along a border that is a thousand miles long. As Col. Douglas McGregor has pointed out, Russian will wait until the ground is frozen and launch a no-holds-barred attack to take down Zelensky’s regime and replace it with a Russia-friendly, neutral Ukraine. When the dust settles, Russia will have unfettered use of Ukraine territory to push gas AND oil pipelines up to the borders of Slovakia and Hungary. That carrot will stay there until the time is right for Europeans, principally the Germans, to realize that being America’s vassal is no longer in their best interests. Should those pipelines be extended across Slovakia and Hungary into Austria, it is game over for London and New York. (((See what I did there?)))
You might be right
I still don’t understand why the Russians haven’t destroyed the Ukrainian rail system and airports, they need to cut off NATO supplies to the battle, time to take the gloves off Vlad
That’s coming. Just grab your popcorn and watch.
Yep. Those troops assembling near Belgorod are not there because the Russians fear an attack by Belarus.
Maybe they just don’t want to have to rebuild the infrastructure after they take they whole thiing?
If they don’t change tactics they will not be taking the whole thing and possibly not even the whole current thing.
The pretend war is just widening the 3rd party involvement in the conflict with each week.
It’s not a pretend war, your conspiracy theory about Putin in the tank to serve his masters in the WEF is nuts. Accept it as a fact that Russia hasn’t followed your advice on how to make war. I’m pretty sure that they know what they’re doing.
Look, I’m impatient too. If it was left up to me I’d turn the Ukraine into a pasture with no Ukrainians left. They seem to be an unpleasant people can’t get along with anyone and the world can do without them.
I am just trying to match up observed behavior.
Who benefits?
What can be verified?
Why is Russia agreeing to walling off itself from the west to prevent itself being infected and the west getting its energy free agenda nuts?
Seems logical to me, and as neither set of populations would want it, then a war is the only thing to make it happen, especially if the casualties are low on each side.
@mike
As an aside on conspiracy theory.
You mention gladio and that the cia was running it all the terror groups through the 60s/70s as the strategy of tension, so did things like the Bologna train bombing killing 300 and others like it for decades.
The govts and IAs of the US and all the Europeans were in on it, yet this proved to be true, This must have included the soviets who could have exposed it at any time.
Why do you think something like that could occur, but not now?
You saw a pattern in that, as do I in this.
The actions are not just slow, they make little sense, unless one thinks about different objectives.
I am not sating its the WEF, i rather think they just want to be walled off fro the poison of the west.
They don’t want all of Ukraine, the Ukraine will still be a large country when the war is over
They should have destroyed all rail lines leading to the south and east and any truck or car moving in the direction of the battle should be a target at this point
The way out of our fantastic debts is right in front of us, in fact Z wrote in the post , roundabout-
Energy money.
Take the petrodollar to the logical step-
Literally energy based money.
The Kilowatt dollar, or the BTU penny. Money that is backed not by Fiat , not by Gold or Silver- but directly energy money.
We have plenty, and anyone with access to the Sun, water, or minerals can generate their own.
Henry Ford proposed this a century ago.
Remember we have gone to war and are possibly going into nuclear war over – Energy.
Here’s the long explanation;
Re: Energy money is the way out.
We are on Fiat paper since 1971.
Our money has no intrinsic value.
In our lifetimes except for the brief few years of fracking all wage gains are eaten up by the rising costs of energy, both consumer and business.
We need a lot more energy and a lot less inflation.
In the 1970s the fiat dollar’s lack of substance behind it was overcome by The Petrodollar- we persuaded OPEC that oil must be paid for in Dollars.
At that point we now have the world over a barrel, and they have to finance our debts.
Oil and energy are the life’s blood of all economies, 8 billion people cannot survive without energy and frankly oil.
The Gold Standard was replaced by the Petrodollar.
This and not Democracy or Israel is the reason for our wars. Its not even oil – its making sure the world must use dollars.
That is the Petrodollar: it’s money, not oil.
That has just ended.
The world is leaving us, the oil can now be bought in Yuan, rubles, I suspect Rupee (India).
We have horrific debts and outstanding derivatives obligations in hundreds of trillions.
We also need boundless energy.
We are Reshoring industry as necessity (already happening).
We have internal conflicts that aren’t solvable by any peaceful resolution as the money’s gone, in fact gone many times over.
However the solution is at hand; make the Petrodollar official- even better the KiloWatt dollar.
Make money of value again, and our money backed by energy.
(Actually probably the KwH Dime at current rates, not a vital question).
So now all the forces and groups aligned against each other can work together to produce energy and get rich (to not harness avarice is foolish).
With energy money inflation actually bends the energy cost curve Down instead of up.
The more money the cheaper your bills. As it is so valuable intrinsically- in fact nearly barter – for the first time scarcity of money (say, Gold) does not increase its value.
The world needs 2 things to survive; energy and money.
This solves both.
While I don’t follow the war closely, apparently enough materiel reaches the Ukrainian side. I still expect a large fraction of the aid money and physical goods go missing, but perhaps I overestimate the “shrinkage.”
I don’t get it either. I like the pipeline angle. And I have written here before that I believe the Russians are going to use winter in a big way. I hope that this ends the actual shooting war, preferably with regime change in Kiev, as quickly as possible.
But on the other hand maybe the Russians are now (or maybe were always) interested in dragging the conflict out. Maybe they understand that the center of gravity in this conflict is the German bourgeoise, not the Zelensky regime or the synagogue inside the Green Zone.
How much of Russian planning is premised on the fact that American foreign policy is an increasingly frantic circle jerk in a car with no breaks? Imagine the psychological profiling they have done on this bunch.
Maybe the Russians are trying to keep these folks from snapping nuclear, and so they want a long-haul that will result in a slow bleed. If this is so, then it might make sense to leave Zelensky alone to become an albatross around the neck of the West.
It makes me wonder if Russia will use the winter to maximum damage against Berlin and Frankfurt but Kyiv not so much. That might preclude a big winter offensive.
Has anyone looked at this absence of hitting obvious supply routes through the lens of Gerasimov’s Doctrine?
Putin approach seems to have been that a negotiated settlement was best. He damn near got one in late March which would have given both sides something they could live with. It was scuttled by Boris Johnson no doubt on the orders of the US State Dept Neo-cons.
I would not be at all surprised to wake up one morning to hear that every road and rail system crossing the UKE/Pol border is gone.
Check out Tim Morgan’s site for the real science on energy & the economy
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
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“This brings us back to the golden rule. Washington’s power lies solely in the power of the dollar, which is pegged to energy. The real reserve currency of the world is the BTU and the dollar is the physical manifestation of it. The war on Russia, like the war on Iran, is as much about protecting the control of energy as it is ideology.”
Very true. But the pegging of the dollar to oil (aka “black gold”) is based only on armed force. Has been since the early ’70s, when Kissinger and his masters forced it on the Middle Eastern OPEC countries with the threat of armed force. When that armed force evaporates — i.e., the countries being extorted realise they’re dealing with a paper tiger — the dollar is doomed. It will just be another worthless paper IOU backed by nothing.
Control of energy is the first priority. Ideology — in the sense of pushing and pimping financial interests — also matters, but it’s in the back seat in comparison. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that interlocking finance and armed force is the means by which the USA plunders and pillages the rest of the world.
If and when Saudi cuts its connection to the USA, it will be a geopolitical event of the first order. MBS looks at the leer of Biden’s vacuous and vapid mien and sees an empire in disarray and disintegration
Oops, meant “leer on Biden’s vapid and vacuous mien.”
It’s pretty amazing when I look at Xi Jinping, Putin and MBS as the rational adults in the room, calmly eyeing the chess board, advancing their countries’ interests and trying to steer the world away from catastrophe.
But the USA still has a huge military. It obviously dwarfs the Saudi military. I don’t think it’s going to evaporate anytime soon.
It’s not as great as billed but with thousands of nuclear weapons and all kinds of aircraft carriers, one way or the other, I suspect we can push the Saudis around.
With the developments in missile technology, those carriers are billion dollar clay pigeons.
The war the US are directly involved in, expect the Russians to help sink a large US ship maybe even a carrier
Just as they did with the Nordstream pipelines, making similar pipelines that the US wants to see as inviolate now conceivably anything but inviolate, when the US helped to sink the Moskva, these sedulous boobs have also opened the door to proxy forces gaining Russian aid to sink a US capital ship. Precedents, doncha know.
It’s true aircraft carriers are overrated in any conflict with a peer nation. And maybe these days even against second rate countries.
However, wouldn’t that be true of super tankers trying to leave Saudi Arabia? It seems pretty easy for the USA to disrupt or stop oil flows out of Saudi arabia.
I’m sure that Putin ans Xi would step in and have Saudi’s back if it came to that.
I think the GAE is scared to death of the possibility of putting its military to test. The threat is there, but can it be backed up with results? Given its performance this century, I doubt it.
Better to not engage and have them think you might be beatable formidable than to engage and have them find out you are.
Forgot to delete “formidable “, doh!
The Biden Administration was initially happy with high gas prices because they thought it would cause a stampede of demand for electric vehicles. They continue to push EVs even though car makers are having terrible time with supply chain issues. Ford has raised the price of its electric F-150 30% since May 2021. They still want to force people into these vehicles even though they can’t provide a reliable way to keep them charged. Mayor Pete was on one of the cable channels during the hurricane saying an EV is great way to keep power on at your home after a hurricane. For how long, 90 minutes? These are the most arrogant and dumbest elites a world power has ever had. We are doomed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/05/ford-ups-starting-price-of-electric-f-150-lightning-to-51974-.html
The Lightning, or any electric pickup is a bad joke.
What contractor or lineman has an hour or more during the work day to spend an hour or more recharging their vehicle?
I saw a Lightning in person the other day. It looks like a bog standard F-150 that trades a tailpipe for a glued on blue, “Lightning,” badge.
Any they expect people to run out and pay a mint for a standard-looking vehicle with pathetic towing capacity?
What planet do these people live on?
A government one.
Process is their output. The effects are irrelevant.
He’s charging the truck at night at home, if he never has to tow something it works for him. the Lightning clearly does have some utility if you work in construction, you just don’t see it yet
I expect a lot of down votes, c’est la vie
The only advantage I can think of is a big battery to power some tools. But then you have to leave the truck at the jobsite and carry the tools home.
Why not just drive the truck home and charge it again
That’s what the owners are doing, talk to one of them
Unless the first thing installed at the job site is a charging station… Which would add a lot of cost to construction.
How much does it cost to install a fast charger in your house? A charge from a standard outlet gets you 2 miles of driving distance per hour.
Who pays for the at home charge? Assuming that an employee is driving it home, does he pay the charging himself? Will it be reimbursed? What do you do?
Also contractors seldom stay on a jobsite all day, they move between jobs, they make runs to pick up parts and so on. Their trucks are driven a lot more than you realize.
Not any more they will have to use the bus.
So electric vehicles are great if you want to pay significantly more for something that is significantly worse in every functionally important way?
Not if their main function is to make wokels feel good.
I see a whole bunch of contractor trucks, top end 350/3500s, custom wheels, 10″ lift kits, exhaust, etc; riced-out toys that haul nothing more than people and breakfast burritos, and their owners squeal like you violated their mother’s honor if they get a little mud on them. For those guys, why not an ev truck that you can use in lieu of a temp power box to run carpentry and related power tools?
Any construction business making any cashflow started using Battery powered drills, drivers, pin nailers and increasingly saws a few years ago. The posers in the lift trucks were the first. That leaves 120 volts for the things that really suck current- compressors etc. Do you really want those sucking the life out of your ride home?
I saw ford just bumped the price up another five grand due to supply issues. Step right up folks, get ‘em while they’re hot and you can.
Cannot state this enough: their attempts to make electric vehicles (and all alt-energy schemes) more competitive by making traditional (working) energy more expensive is doomed to failure since those fashionable “alts” are completely dependent on traditional energy for their creation and maintenance (a field of solar panels cannot drive the energy necessary for their creation, installation, etc.). As traditional energy gets less accessible and more expensive the alt-crap gets that much more inaccessible and expensive. ESG is a scheme to have us living in mud huts.
Surely depends on what they think is a failure?
Exactly. Their goal is not a clean environment or better energy technology. Their goal is control and religious piety.
The only “alt” energy that has a shot is nuclear. And they don’t want to go there.
Because nuclear means readily available, stable electricity supplies capable of supporting industry, which lead to steady jobs, which lead to far too much liberty and a high-standard of living for the Dirt people.
No, it doesn’t. It simply shifts patronage networks from carbon-based energy to nuclear energy. Elites don’t care if dirt people use nuclear or carbon power as long as the elites control nuclear and carbon. Nuclear power plants didn’t take off because they were cheaper than coal but because the government wanted enriched uranium. Nuclear isn’t cheap.
I’d buy a nuclear F 450 jack it up to the sky with the biggest lift kit possible then crush every puny electrc vehicle i saw.
You do realize a nuclear F450 would be an electric vehicle don’t you?
Unless you’re going to use the heat to power a steam engine.
They are vaginated and soy-infused Pol Pots. I expect it to end the same way, too, because it does not appear that there are any adults left to stop them before they push us all over a line that cannot be uncrossed.
> They still want to force people into these vehicles even though they can’t provide a reliable way to keep them charged.
No, they still want to force people into these vehicles PRECISELY BECAUSE they can’t provide a reliable way to keep them charged.
How many more examples do you need? Nobody that gets that much power is that stupid. These people are EVIL.
No, they’re stupid. Or, more precisely, foolish, which is its own sort of evil. They have correctly realized that fossil fuels will eventually be depleted, and this is certainly true. They’ve also, correctly, concluded that maintaining this standard of living in perpetuity requires a new fuel that provides cheap dense energy like fossil fuels, but is not subject to depletion, unlike fossil fuels. What makes them foolish is that they are focused on a problem that doesn’t exist yet, in that we are centuries away from running out of fossil fuels. There’s no sense forgoing cheap energy today, or squandering it on crackpot schemes that may never be useful.
It isn’t just the charg times. It is that the costs of the vehicles most expensive component can’t come down much further. Musk and the industry have left the public with the impression that Moore’s Law applies to battery chemistry. Then there is the issue of the supply of metals required for the batteries and motors and the electric grid upgrade. Costs will spiral out of control. When this is all over Musk will go down as the greatest charlatan in world history.
The GAE thinks that spending money creates jobs and growth. Krugman and his war spending against pretend space invaders is there going economic thesis. They belly eve this nonsense.
Watch out below!!
A fully charged EV could supply up to three days’ median household electric demand. I did these calculations during early last year before tiring of debating ardent green lunatics various places. I also computed that the average lightning strike has enough energy that it could fully charge that EV about three times, or power that house for about nine days.
Yes, many of the official statements are ludicrous. But it’s fun to do some ciphering and figure out what the theory would allow.
There also seems to be an acclerationist bent from combining the rapaciousness of the neo-cons that infest the Biden junta with the sheer whackiness of the “greens”. In a normal world you might have to tolerate a period of neo-con meddling in everything, but in this instance the US would also be drilling like stink for natgas and oil. But we’re not. One of my kids is in the LNG shipping business, so I get an almost real time “ticker” of what is going on in those markets and they left “ain’t pretty” behind a long time ago. While we focus on Europe, what is missed is 3rd world countries that have become dependent on gas for both power generation and fertilizers are almost wholly priced out of the energy market. He was at the global LNG conference in Milan about a month ago. Two observations: 1) the European energy ministry folks are putting on a brave public face, but are shitting their pants in private meetings 2) the 3rd world thing is bigger than we think. Sat in one meeting where the Pakistani govt. representative was practically crying and begging the West to get it’s shit together or countries like his are going to collapse. Easy to see with current gas prices + charter rates for vessels topping $500k per day.
Pakistan have their own natural gas reserves, I suggest they get their own shit together before begging from the West
Insufficient amounts. Have to feed two FSRU facilities in one of the ports in order to provide power and downstream products. Otherwise the lights go out. And population starves. On a normal day I wouldn’t give a shit, but nuclear arsenal changes the calculation a bit. But it is merely one example. Bangladesh is another. Sri Lanka reached the end game. You have similar situations in South America and other places. Really dont want all those going critical at once.
“Otherwise the lights go out. And population starves.”
Probably already happening. In cities like Karachi I think electricity is only available for four or five hours a day. And basic food is already getting beyond the reach of an increasing fraction of the population.
US oil production is now under 12 million bpd, while consumption is 19 million, so America is in no position to wait out the countries who have an oil surplus…Americans are not as suicide prone as Europeans…
Though we’re doing yeoman’s work trying to emulate them. Just watch the slow motion crash in consumer spending. People in the US largely viewed the first spike as temporary and used credit to bridge the gap. That is running out. Inflation making it worse. So you’ll probably see a slow motion wreck as the middle class devolves spending to housing, food and transportation, with perhaps one of the three becoming optional. Lived through the oil price shocks in the 70s, it’s not an immediate feedback loop.
You (and Z) touch on something that this GAE war on international energy would make a lot more sense if energy production in the empire proper were ramping up and thus stuffing aces up the sleeves of Uncle Sam. Instead it just looks like what it is: lunacy.
It is a complicated thing, this distribution of resources. If one’s culture locks in population overshoot, with no thought for the inevitable consequences native to that culture, let alone the consequences of presenting oneself to those with worldwide power wearing a sign on one’s back reading “kick me”, well, there was a reason that Jesus observed that the poor will always be with you.
There is a song by Robyn Hitchcock entitled “Cheese Alarm”. On the surface, it seems to be a frivolous song about the temptation to consume too much delightful cheese to the disadvantage of the waistline, but he inserted a couple of lines in the lyrics that pointed up a different moral, to wit:
Half the world starving, half the world bloats,
Half the world sits on the other and gloats.
I noted with some interest that in President Putin’s recent major speech there was a shout-out to the “Global South” concerning the exploitative nature of the neocolonialism implicit in neoliberalism, and that message likely hit the mark, particularly in the context of today with the costs of fossil fuels and other essentials for survival such as fertilizers, themselves partly dependent upon petroleum products for their continued availability, and the struggle for control of these resources. The elephants are fighting, and woe betide the ants, no matter their aggregate numbers, under their feet.
Now, certainly, I would not expect that the Russians, as major sources for these critical commodities, would just give them away, but an argument can be made that the current dispensation and monetary monopoly worsens and perpetuates the poor prospects for those substantially in a position as mendicants.
Putin advocated that each people should have the option to pursue their own way free from these built in handicaps. After that, if they want to be self-defeating dumbasses, that can be their own choice, but the dead hand of international disaster capitalism will at least be gone. I am certain that that has some real appeal. Very clever.
SamlAdams: Very much appreciate real-time inside info like this. While I do my best to maintain neutrality/rationality when reading/viewing things – particularly YT ‘fear porn for clicks,’ I also try to weigh how various facts and numbers translate into real world situations. I may despise globalism, but AINO is deeply tied into it and the power grid collapsing in a shitehole like Bangladesh or Pakistan running out of natgas will affect us, demogaphically, financially, and strategically.
They can all come to England and become airport security guards. I arrived in London and I thought I was in Pakistan though greeted by a posters of Somalis who play Shakespeare.
The things I have seen here. Sounds like England’s wet dream of white replacement will have a tsunami iof people ready to come.
Camp of the Saints was not fiction, they just published too early.
And the crazy thing is if liquid Gold rules the world we actually have abundant gold mines but we want to pretend those don’t exist. And on the other hand, we are ruled by evil cult of sodomy and child sacrifice so it really does have to go. It is very sad that many of us are going to suffer and die at it’s demise. Say your prayers.
Gold is a shiny durable metal that looks nice, it also has some industrial uses, but the World runs on energy, crude oil is amazing stuff really
I would rather have a massive oil reserve than a huge gold mine
Agreed. Look at the Spanish empire — lots of gold from plundering South America but all it did was drive prices high. I think the empire went bankrupt around 1700. Energy is the real gold.
Did you guys never watch the Beverly Hillbillies? Liquid Gold?
Texas Tea, Kuwaiti Kool-Aid
Black gold, not liquid. Maybe that’s why the reference was misunderstood.
Whitney: Most definitely watched that as a kid. While it poked plenty of fun at both the eccentricities of the Hillbillies and the snootiness of the Cali nouveau riche, I find myself recalling more of the Hillbilly wisdom and common sense today than anything else.
Replying to CMatt
Doh!
I’m so obviously genx huh
I guess that instead of swimmin’ in the cement pond, we unz need to be out shootin’ at some food…
Yes, and another little known consequence: the entire culture stagnated for a few centuries (18, 19h centuries). Long gone was the bravado of the Conquistadores of 16th century. Although glimmers of it remained, to a large degree Spain and its [former] colonies experienced a wave of indolence, which to a large extent became a permanent part of the culture. While the rest of Europe was industrializing, Spain largely remained quite content in the agrarian past. When I was studying Spanish, one of my professors labelled this curse of sloth affecting Mother Spain as “Waiting for the next boat laden with gold to return from the New World.” Problem was, eventually they stopped coming.
The whole narrative about Spanish collapse is stupid on it’s face. They were a world power for half a millenia due to their gold.
Whitney was being facetious. By “gold mine”, the reference is to large stores of gas and oil right under our feet.
I wish these BRIC outfits would get on the stick and start working on a regime change plan for this dump. Hopefully, one is in the works – the rest of the world depends on it.
I’m a little surprised we’ve seen a bunch of Russian execs and Dugin’s daughter get taken out with nary a response from the Kremlin.
I mean, they know where all these various neocon functionaries live.
The Russians take the long view on these things. They have no hang ups about taking out one other their own on foreign soil. They understand that this is how the game has always been played and everyone knows it. Killing foreign dignitaries is a different matter. It normalizes something that has always been considered unacceptable.
The Russians seem to be willing to accept that it was Ukraine that killed Dugin’s daughter as long as Washington makes a point of telling Ukraine to stop the program. If it happens again, things could turn very ugly in Kiev.
I’m surprised Putin hasn’t cut Russian crude output, he could easily push oil prices over $200 a barrel and sink the western economy, maybe he will at some point
Since he is diverting an increasing amount to China, India, et al, he can buy a lot of new friends the way he’s using it today.
As soon as Russia launches the Ukrainian winter offensive, gas prices will double. How long prices will remain elevated is anyone’s guess. Putin will not cut production, but merely sit back and let the markets sort it out. China knows this is coming and I imagine Russia will cut them some slack as a favor.
Interesting how Pakistan will fit in all of this. If China retains their assets there while shifting the policy towards the new geopolitical block, we may see a new the emergence of political forum stretching from Arabian Peninsula to Kamchatka.
See above. Pakistan is desperate right now.
Interesting, maybe another military coup is in order.