Note: Our good friend Ed Dutton has a new book titled, The Naked Classroom: The Evolutionary Psychology of Your Time at School. While watching paint dry I intend to read it and post up a review this week. Please but two copies, one for yourself and one for a friend or family member.

Note: Behind the green door I have a post titled Eloi, Morlocks and the Cable Guy, a post titled Missing The Executioner, and the Sunday podcast. You can sign up for a green door account at SubscribeStar or Substack.

Societal collapse is a topic that has always had a following, especially on this side of the great divide, despite the fact that there are no signs of it. You can point to current trends and say they could one day lead to collapse, something like the systemic abuse of the money supply or the degradation of the American military. On the other hand, liberal democracies have shown an ability to self-correct. The money supply and the military were a mess in the 1970’s until they were fixed.

The closest we have come to witnessing the collapse of a complex society was the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Over a thirty-year period, the member nations of the communist bloc had slowly integrated their economies and military, under the umbrella the communist world, so when these countries broke free, what followed was a period of chaos that eventually spread to Russia itself. The 1990’s were a dark time in Russia, marked by lawlessness and social chaos.

Even so, these countries that made up the the communist world did not disintegrate after the fall of the Soviet Union. The captive nations quickly reoriented themselves economically and politically toward the West. Russia had a dark period of chaos and confusion, but eventually regained itself. In other words, these societies did not collapse, even though the political-economy collapsed. They simply had to refashion their economics and politics, which they did.

Another example might be Iraq after the United States toppled Saddam. The main reason Iraq fell into chaos and the American military had to fight a guerilla war to gain control of the country was the old system collapsed. Of course, that would not have happened if not for the thousands of tons of explosive dropped on the country by the American military. It was more of a self-controlled demolition more than a collapse of a complex society in the Joseph Tainter sense of the phrase.

The coming year may provide some examples that are not quite what Tainter described, but not quite like the recent examples either. Ukraine, for example, seems to be on the cusp of collapse after two long years of war. The political class is in turmoil, leading many to predict a coup against Zelensky. The army is running out of men and material to hold back the Russians. Both Europe and Washington are now slow-walking future aid due to the growing problems in the country.

It is possible that we see something like Iraq, where a guerilla army forms up after the regular army collapses. The Bandera elements could try to seize power, leading to a civil war between them and other factions. The minority groups in the West could see this as a chance to gain their freedom. The term Carpatho-Ruthenian could start appearing in Western media. There could also be a general collapse of civil order, including the operation of the infrastructure.

Unlike Iraq, there is a sidecar to this that bears watching. For two years much of the political class in the West has been convinced that Ukraine just needs to hold the line, as the Russians will eventually collapse. This was the prediction made at the start by the neocons who control Western foreign policy. We are seeing some glimpses of politicians waking up to reality. No one knows what will happen when reality comes rushing in like a winter wind blowing open the door.

It is not just a credibility issue here. Hundreds of billions of booty have been promised by those politicians to powerful interests. For example, Blackrock has been buying up land rights in Ukraine, expecting a Ukraine victory. What happens when the new Ukraine government repudiates these deals? No one really knows how much money has changed hands on the assumption that Western oligarchs will get to plunder the place after the Ukrainians defeat the Russians.

It is easy to forget that the imaginary world in which our rulers operate is their reality, so when that reality slams into genuine reality, there will be consequences. We tend to think of collapse in terms of practical things not working but collapse also applies to narrative frameworks and beliefs. For over thirty years the Global American Empire has rested on the assumptions that arise from being an invisible force. When that premise is no longer valid, there will be consequences.

Of course, there are important elections coming in the next year. The most significant of which is un the United States. The only Ukraine skeptic is Donald Trump, who could be forced off the ticket for that reason. People forget that Trump’s primary crime against the regime, as far as the regime is concerned, is his opposition to the neocons. They slimed him with the Russian collusion hoax and then impeached him over Ukraine. A collapse of Ukraine will add some spice to this already spicy stew.

If they do force Trump off the ballot, that means the candidates in the general election will be Ukraine fanatics controlled by the neocons. Imagine the 2008 election was between John McCain and John Bolton, against the backdrop of the Iraq fiasco and you have a glimpse of a possible future. If on the other hand Trump is on the ballot, imagine him pounding away at this every day until election day. It is possible that 2024 makes 2016 look like a debate at the philatelic society.

Closer to home, in the dissident sphere, a weird subculture has developed around Ukraine and the war. This debate provides a nice summary of their beliefs. It is as if the people in that pro-Ukraine subculture were given a potion by the neocons that causes them to repeat all of their most absurd claims, without realizing they are parroting the people they claim to oppose. If Ukraine collapses, we could witness something similar to what happened with the Seekers in this famous study.

Failure has consequences and collapse is a form of failure. Unlike a typo or a math error, collapse takes with it whole systems of thought and belief because it is the result of those systems and beliefs. Maybe all of this is avoided, and Ukraine bumps along to some new arrangements that avoids a catastrophe. That is something Tainter observed about the modern age. Collapse is much more difficult because all human systems are interconnected, so they have external support.

Ukraine will provide a test of that in 2024. Russia does not want collapse, as that just makes their task more difficult. The Poles do not want millions more Ukrainian refugees, so they do not want collapse. There are forces withing Ukraine that would like a soft landing, even if it means capitulating to Russia. Maybe Tainter is right, and the structure of the West will prevent collapse. On the other hand, the failure of Project Ukraine is just one step in the collapse of the West.

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