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Word leaking out of the Biden White House is that the people actually running foreign policy got the old man to sign off on the limited use of ATACMS missiles inside the borders of pre-2014 Russia. The Ukraine press immediately began to lie about this, as that is what they always do, claiming that this now means they can launch unlimited strikes into Russia using American weapons. The Ukraine lobby makes the Israel lobby look candid and transparent by comparison.
For this unfamiliar, ATACMS stands for Army Tactical Missile System. This is a supersonic tactical ballistic missile that can be fired from mobile launchers and has a range of about 200-miles. This is a precision guided weapon, which means it relies on the American military global positioning system to reach a precise target. It can carry a variety of warheads, including nuclear, chemical or biological. Those last two officially do not exist, but they do exist, and Russia knows it.
That is why the United States has not “allowed” Ukraine to use these weapons against targets inside of Russia. Ukraine is not actually operating these weapons systems because they lack the cognitive and technical ability. Ukraine operators can do the minimal to operate the system, but the targeting and guidance is done by the American military hidden away in bunkers in Ukraine. It is a thing everyone knows is true but pretends is not true to avoid nuclear war.
Despite the lie machine saying otherwise, the latest escalation is limited to the Kursk region, where Ukraine launched an ill-fated attack inside Russia. Their forces are now bottled up there, getting hammered into bits. This limited use of ATACMS there may be in preparation for a retreat or just another crackpot scheme to continue a project that has no chance for success. It also created a problem for the Trump administration, which will inherit the Ukraine mess in two months.
That may be the real motivation. The Kagan cult is sure that Trump will make a deal with his bosses in Moscow to abandon those freedom loving Ukrainians to the Kagan’s ancient enemy to the east. They have two months to throw sand in the gears in what they imagine will be the Trump Ukraine strategy. This is one reason Trump has refused to say anything about his plan for Ukraine to this point. He seems to have figured out that the people responsible for this war are insane.
Of course, the point of permitting Ukraine to use these weapons is to bait the Russians into responding. This is a standard neocon tactic. They provoke a target into responding and then claim it is an unprovoked “act of aggression” against them. Coincidentally, this is the standard operating procedure for Israel. They did everything possible to provoke an attack from Iran, so they could then claim to be the innocent victim and then call in the United States to wage war on Iran.
That is the real concern between now and January. If the neocons running Biden foreign policy continue to poke the bear, the Russians can always take the restraints off Iran, which would like to send another volley of missiles to Israel. The Russians have no illusions about the Ukraine war. They talk about it as a NATO proxy war against them and have repeatedly warned about NATO escalation. They have made clear that their responses will not be limited to Ukraine.
This is where the geopolitical game of chess comes into play. The Kagan cult may also be looking to set a trap for Trump. By escalating in Ukraine, they may think Russia will escalate in the Middle East, perhaps leaving it on the brink of war. Trump’s plan to stack his foreign policy team with Iran hawks is read as a plan to be especially tough on the Iranians this time around. The schemers running foreign policy at the moment would love to see Team Trump step on that rake.
Note that the one of the things the foreign policy establishment does is make it impossible for presidents to negotiate. Every issue around the world is cast in extreme moral terms and every rival is Hitler. This means any deal is akin to Neville Chamberlain ceding the Sudetenland. To even suggest making a deal to resolve a dispute is to acquiesce to evil. Team Trump looks primed to fall into this sort of trap when they take over Iran policy, but we shall see.
It is not hard to imagine a scenario in which the Trump administration is dealing with spiraling of attacks between Israel and Iran. Then the warmongers in the GOP will be demanding war with Iran. The press will be full of reports of how the Russians are supplying Iran with weapons. That means any effort to make a deal with Russia over Ukraine gets the Chamberlain treatment. For the neocons, this at least buys time to keep Project Ukraine going.
Of course, the Israel lobby is fine with this. They want war with Iran as they think the American military will easily defeat them, which will lead to a collapse of the Iran government, paving the way for Greater Israel. It is a good example of how the neocons draft on the Israel lobby to keep their various schemes going. If they can pin down the Trump admin in the Middle East with another proxy war with Russia, then according to their logic, there can be no deal over Ukraine.
There are, of course, many other schemes bubbling up in the fever swaps of the neocons and the Israel lobby. They have two months to poison as many wells as possible, in anticipation of a Trump administration that would prefer to wind down the foreign conflicts. It is why no one should be optimistic about foreign policy under the next Trump administration. He will inherit a foreign policy establishment that is hopelessly corrupt.
Even if his team is sober-minded and realistic about he various hot spots they will inherit, they will be inheriting problems that have been caused by successive administration who have burnt up a lot of political capital. That means they walk into a world full of traps. Some have been set on purpose, while others are just the result of mismanagement over the last thirty years. Simply making to through the next four years without a war will be an accomplishment.
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It’s hard to imagine America not at war somewhere. The leaders are vampires that live on blood.
Was September 10, 2001 the last time? Or was there some dust-up even back then?
Dude, Kosovo, 1999.
And the other Balkans before that. And Somalia. And Desert Storm. And the Tanker War in 1988. Grenada in 1983. Lebanon in 1983 (lost 241 Marines and a couple of A-6 attack planes bombing Syrian positions).
“This means any deal is akin to Neville Chamberlain ceding the Sudetenland.” The idea that Chamberlain was some kind of weak liberal pansy appeaser is one of the greatest lies of the past century. Chamberlain was a Conservative and he did the right thing by ceding the Sudetenland. Britain, which lost 750,000 men on the continent only 20 years earlier, had absolutely no way to enforce Czechoslovakian borders deep in Central Europe and had no national interest in those borders. Moreover, those borders were an utter farce, in violation of the Wilsonian/League of Nations principle of “ethnic self-determination of peoples”… Read more »
A ground war with Iran is pretty much impossible, both logistically and in terms of men under arms(which includes a lot of women and trannies who are mostly useless)…Given the vulnerability of our carriers, an air war doesn’t look much better, and Iran’s Russia-enhanced air defenses are formidable..And then there’s the problem of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, promising economic disaster… So the neocons are pretty much stuck with the Ukraine project, which has produced no results despite draining NATO dry of military resources…It doesn’t seem that Trump has much to worry about…He can just get a couple of… Read more »
Yep. Trump’s foreign policy will be constrained by the new reality that the US is no longer the global hegemon. Our military remains the best in terms of global reach, but other big players can now punch back if we strike at them. This dramatically changes the equation.
Trump is fully onboard the Israel First team, but we can’t hit Iran hard enough to stop them from hitting back hard against Israel and our navy. Trump doesn’t want that to be his legacy.
Pyrrhus-
Those are all good, realistic points.
The problem is that the neocons infesting the Washington foreign policy establishment can’t or won’t accept any of them.
Z is leaving out the Pentagon in this equation. Trump will be the first president of Regional American Empire. The US can no longer punch without getting punched back, at least against the main players.
The Pentagon is likely aware that an attack on Iran means counter attacks and not just closing off the Strait of Hormuz but missile attacks against American ships or installations. As in Ukraine, pretty narratives fall apart against cold reality.
The problem is they’re not fooling anybody. It’s pretty obvious what they’re doing. The regime lost decisively in an election where Trump promised to end the Ukraine war and the boozy bimbo refused to talk about it. Trump has a popular mandate, despite the protestations of a permanent government that might be DOGE’d into submission. He is openly derisive of the State Dept negotiators, frequently calling them “stupid” and “incompetent”. So I don’t think Rubio can break through that noise. He probably picked Rubio specifically because Rubio isn’t all that bright. Expect a lot of “we can’t abandon our allies”… Read more »
And in his first campaign, he promised to lessen tensions with Russia. And TPTB easily manipulated him into escalation. Most Americans did not perceive this obvious chicanery, and they will not this time, either.
Putin is proof that a cool, rational man is at a serious disadvantage in a game of chicken. He should have tried Nixon s crazy man strategy. But now it might be too late. The others, ostensibly “our side”, are too high on their chicken shit supply. And two crazies playing chicken will end very badly
Timing this escalation right after the Trump victory is very suspicious, but typical of corrupt D.C.
It was an unwinnable war from the get-go, and each day it becomes less winnable as silly empowered women and celebrated homos take over the military. Soon America won’t be fit to defeat Guatemala.
Admirably lucid analysis of the Ukr situation. After that I think it gets over-complicated, which I think is due to the fact that there are several and interlocking agendas – One of which (and at the highest level IMO) is simply to embroil the US in as many – as destructive as possible – and unwinnable – wars; with the objective of destroying the USA. Of course, there is power to be gained and money to be made along the way; but most of the dominant policies share the result of weakening, and ultimately destroying, the USA. This is how… Read more »
Yes. The real war is against the U.S. citizenry. By sending manufacturing overseas, the rich have gutted the military-industrial complex and left the nation with merely a war-economy.
Ergo, there must always be a war. Somewhere, against someone.