Note: Behind the green door I have a post about how the primary goal of American foreign policy is to create chaos, a post about the challenge of buying an old truck, and the Sunday podcast. Subscribe here or here.
One of the more difficult things for people to accept is that sometimes things happen that benefit no one and for reasons under no one’s control. Other than natural disasters, people just assume that everything happens for a reason and someone wanted it to happen because they gain to benefit from it happening. Conspiracy theories are born when it is not clear who made something happen. This need to know the who and why for everything gets filled by the conspiracy theory.
The collapse of Syria is a great example of this. Everyone just assumed this was another American regime change operation. Then we got stories about how it was the Turks who backed the rebels and wanted Assad gone. Once the Israelis started grabbing land, the usual suspects came in with their usual theories. There is even a theory that the Russians wanted Syria to collapse to create a quagmire for the Americans to manage in the Middle East.
All these theories make some sense, if you ignore the things that make no sense whatsoever, like the dangers of creating chaos in the region. The Israelis might be happy Assad is gone for emotional reasons, but having a bunch of Islamist warlords operating on their border just added a lot of new costs to their budget. The United States now has a new problem to manage. Guarding those Chevon oil fields suddenly got more expensive and more complicated.
Then you have the fact that there are many players on the Syrian board. Before you get to the big players, you have six factions within the rebel coalition. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, called HTS in Western media. They are backed by Turkey, Qatar, the CIA and led by a guy who looks like the main character from the move The Dictator. He wants to create an Islamic state in Syria. This group used to be called ISIS of Syria but now is pretending to be a kinder, gentler ISIS.
Remnants of the Assad Regime are now forming up in the Alawite areas they still control and presumably they will get support from Russia and Iran. Then there is FSA/SNA and allied groups, that have been supported by Turkey, Qatar, the U.S. State Department, and the CIA. The Kurds, called SDF, have the protection of the American military operating in the region. ISIS still exists, with backing of pro-Islamic forces, along with regional tribal and Islamic groups.
What we now have is an area a little bigger than the state of New York controlled by a collection of war lords that do not like one another very much. The most likely outcome of this arrangement is a civil war between the groups. The only reason anyone would want such an outcome is if they have no exposure to it. In other words, there is no reason to think that anyone wanted this outcome, at least none of the countries exposed to whatever comes out of Syria.
This brings us back to that default formula. Everything happens in the world for a reason because someone stands to benefit from it. The cost-benefit for everyone with an interest in Syria is already negative and promises to get much worse as things travel their natural course. In the end, someone might make something of it, but right now it is a chaotic mess. Who would want this result? The answer is no one because no one saw it as a possible outcome.
Instead of a game of four-dimensional chess, Syria is an example of the lack of second order thinking by the Turks and Americans. Since 2011 both sides have supported anti-Assad groups for different reasons. Erdogan is obsessed with the Kurds, who operate in Turkey, Syria and Iraq. The United States backed anti-Assad group because Assad was tight with Russia and Iran. Their goal was to put pressure on Russian and Iran with a slow bleed of Syria.
Based on the associated media campaign, it is clear the United States and Turkey thought this would be a repeat of past flare ups. The rebels would make some attacks, but the Syrian army would push them back. After all, the Syrian army was a quarter million men with the support of Russia and Iran. The rebels numbered around thirty thousand and lacked air power and modern equipment. Instead, the Syrian army collapsed and Russia and Iran did not come in to save them.
Like all large-scale human societies, Syria was a complex system made more complex by relentless pressure from outside. Those outside failed to appreciate this complexity, so they did not plan for what would come from it once they started making changes to the conditions in which that complex system existed. Like a bomb disposal crew randomly cutting wires, the whole thing blew up and now everyone with a connection to the region is scrambling to adjust to a new reality.
Instead of being an example of the cleverness needed for the popular explanations about why Syria collapsed, especially the more conspiratorial ones, Syria is an example of a lack of those things. No one seems to have understood what was happening inside the Syrian system and no one thought much about what could come from monkeying around with the conditions inside Syria. It is the result of a lack of second and third order thinking, not four-dimensional chess.
The thing about this situation is it should have been obvious to all concerned that collapse was a possibility even before the rebel attack. In other words, this scheme was obviously stupid, but the main players did it anyway. This is not the first time the United States has been this stupid. Libya, Tunisia, Egypt are three great examples of the same poorly conceived scheme. If not for the Egyptian military, the Muslim Brotherhood would be controlling most of North Africa.
It is a good reminder for those who love chanting about the Deep State. The same people who create these debacles around the Muslim world are making decisions about all sorts of things, foreign and domestic. In a complex world, the default assumption about why anything happens is Hanlon’s razor. “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence, neglect, or ignorance.” What we are seeing In Syria is a combination of all three.
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It is a cluster, no doubt, and as images emerge of Christians being raped and murdered by clients of the United States government, Americans will grow even more hostile to its brutal and retarded Regime and Our Greatest Ally. But one group possibly does benefit from the chaos: those who want to destroy Europe and Western Civilization via mass migration. Human flight from Syria is about to get dialed up to 11. But even the Burn It All Down ghouls may get slipped a green weenie if a new burst of Syrian refugees further inflames European tensions over refugees. The… Read more »
The obvious solution is to restore the Sultan.
Strange that Christian communities in this region stayed intact for over 1000 years under the Ottomans (supposedly a strange and hostile empire of primitive steppe people that toppled the last vestiges of Rome) and precursor states… yet as soon as the West and Fellow-West got its grimy mitts on these regions, the Christians were done for.
I do not say that as a fan of the Ottomans. But they seem to have been far better stewards of this region than whatever this current post-WW1 version of the west is. I guess it is Amalek thinking.
The Ottomans and then the French and British kept things relatively stable until 1948 and some people did some things.
Moslem rulers in antiquity were happy to have Christians living in their communities…Christians paid extra taxes, and didn’t cause any trouble….
Unfortunately it seems that the US can stomach an infinite number of Christians being murdered/brutalized. I don’t recall that kind of thing sparking much outcry in my lifetime, let alone useful policy responses. Perhaps this is because the (((media))) goes out of its way to memory hole such events.
Something I dramatically underestimated was the importance of Musk’s acquisition of Twitter/X. The images of the ongoing ethnic cleansing of Gaza have turned people sharply against Israel for the first time in our lives; TikTok is being banned for this reason despite other claims. The unfolding savagery in Syria cannot be hidden, the horror will be blasted out, and that makes it different from previous United States-sponsored Christian genocides. The Regime lost full control of propaganda and that has put it in a precarious position. Public opinion largely doesn’t matter, of course, but some buy in remains necessary.
Some information that could make one an antisemite is allowed to proliferate on X, some anti-Jewish rhetoric is allowed to ensue, and some are allowed to “fight” the resulting “neonazis.” (For example, the account StopAntisemitism, which Elon has granted a special dispensation to dox and threaten other users, sometimes does so using information that has only been given to X. Anyone care? He said the purpose of his acquisition of Twitter was to transform it into the site of everyone’s universal digital identity. Yours is “antisemite #933847.”) This state of angry disputation calls for state intervention. So the incoming administration… Read more »
The horse has left the barn, but, yeah, that’s the plan however late in the genocide. Elon on Shapiro’s leash is an image not going away soon, as an aside.
But that’s not a very good explanation. If The Chosen were behind it, why would it serve their interests to memory-hole events that would move the marginal people towards anti-Islam?
If one has to believe in an uber-powerful human foe, muslims are a far better candidate, somehow using their magical powers to convince an increasing number of people that head-choppers are fine people, and that The Chosen are the real foe.
At least the Small Hats condone alcohol and will loan us money at interest. Lesser of two evils and all that…
Even relatively strict Muslim countries can’t keep alcohol out…I have a friend in Bangladesh who regularly partakes of Jack Daniels with friends…
As the Arab told me, ha! every Arab has a wet bar in his home.
I suppose the (convoluted) rationale for this is that The Chosen are backing *these* Muslim head choppers and by the transitive property these are “our” head choppers doing the Lord’s (and by the same property, America’s) work. Of course they’re only a name or alliance change away from being the bad kind of head choppers. Let’s say they cut a deal with Russia, which is quite likely at some point. They instantly become “bad” head choppers. Believe me American Christian Zionists absolutely are this stupid. You gotta cut these guys some slack though. I mean what are you supposed to… Read more »
The head-choppers are no threat to the migration racket nor the war racket. Who runs the migration NGO racket?
Did 2000 synagogues burn down in the last few years?
Are rioters marching or is migrant housing being built in Chosen districts?
Have yeshivas gone from white to nonwhite?
Are Chosen activists and politicians leading public campaigns against refugees of the neocon wars? Or are they fiercely defending both, while claiming “Chosen most affected”?
“Chosen girls in Rotherham”…yeah, right.
I wish I could totally blame the media, but the fact is, Christians themselves have totally internalized the commands of their oppressors on this. Christians will rush to defend some Ivy League Jew who got his feelings hurt on campus (there is one who spoke at the RNC and is now becoming a conservative celebrity, despite the fact that he literally said he was a Democrat during his RNC speech), but will not defend dead or oppressed Christians in the Holy Land or Middle East. They will not say a word about Christians getting spit on in Jerusalem. They don’t… Read more »
There are ways to help persecuted Christians:
At Least Ten More Christians Killed in Northern Mozambique | Barnabas Aid
Open Doors International · Serving Persecuted Christians Worldwide
Obviously, do your due diligence, but these are just two organizations. Every bit helps.
And the US military has been hostile to Christians since at least WW2…yet they keep signing up…losers it would appear
America/AINO reserves its outrage and its bombs for Muzz getting the dirty end of the stick from Christians and wogs getting roughed up by the Blue-Eyed Ice Devils. See, for example, the Bosnians and the Serbs in the mid-90s.
Someone really needs to compile a virtue-level chart showing exactly how holy each of the many factions in the ME is from an American Empire PoV. It should probably be an interactive chart that can change in realtime to show who we’re supposed to bomb. They can use it as a screen saver at the State Dept and CIA.
It’s a feature , not a bug.
IMHO the Israelis will benefit mightily. The military aid from Iran to Hezbollah has been cut off. Since Israel now has positions in the south of Syria it is only a matter of time until Hezbollah is not able to fight and Israel will take Southern Lebanon to the Litani River. The major Western players don’t care about chaos in central Syria as long as Israel is expanded and the proposed oil pipeline from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to Turkey can be built. As to “adding a lot of new costs for Israel,” that is never a problem as the… Read more »
Tend to agree. A disorganized and fractured Syria makes implementation of greater israel easier than a unified Syria.
The US would let some of its own states collapse into chaos before Israel. Indeed times of strife in proximity to Israel would be a good time for succession minded states to hop off the sinking ship.
Pelosi said, verbatim, that if the Capitol walls came crumbling down Congress would remain committed to Israel…
Nancy Pelosi:If capital crumbles to the ground,one thing tha’ll remain is our commitment to Israel – YouTube
As long as Turkey, with by far the largest army in the West, doesn’t decide to really rule all of Syria…What would NATO do about that?
I could see Turkey taking about half of Syria in the medium term if they decide to. If Turkey struck quickly and did not try to over reach too much there is probably not much NATO could do.
I doubt they would try to take on Israel. At least not in the foreseeable future.
“In other words, this scheme was obviously stupid, but the main players did it anyway.” Which explains how Western governments got ten million people killed in the trenches between 1914 and 1918 over nothing. The thing about the Deep State is not simply that it has tentacles and spooks trying to pull the strings. It does, and there are plenty of examples. The other main feature of the Deep State — or any exclusionary, hierarchical, bureaucratic structure that dispenses power and money — is that it is insular and self-referential, and anyone who voices a dissenting view is either punished… Read more »
The Iron Law of Bureaucracy applies just as well to the managerial class. After three years of fighting in Ukraine, conventional wisdom about future wars has not changed inside the Pentagon. The reason is everyone is tuned to defend the system. It is their nature to view heterodox opinions as mortal threats. The same is true in every area of the managerial class. In my youth, I was tasked with fixing a problem department. The main problem was one location that lost money like crazy. I found out that the lease was due to expire in the next year, so… Read more »
‘Hell, it was like that in the academic world, which was supposed to be about the free exchange of ideas! What do you suppose it is like in the military, the intel community, or the State Department?’
Good point.
The colleges have been ideological tyrannies of feminism, homo-ism and P.C. for 4 decades now. This is entrenched and yes, it damn sure WAS and IS a conspiracy. D.C. is all of that, and ever-so-much more.
No matter what happens white countries will accept more “refugees” that are incompatible with our societies because muh holocaust.
This likely won’t be a replay of the past since European and North American regimes are quite fragile now over weaponized migration. It very well may get ugly.
I’ve been calling them The Wizards of Smart for, officially, decades now. The so-called “Arab Spring” (a Bill Kristol / neocon term) ended up causing the worst refugee crisis since ww2. It also is the main source of various European nationalist movements. At home, “the stimulus” and its “shovel ready” jobs, was another adventure in proving that all the macroeconomic textbooks they hand MBA students are dead wrong. Masks and vaccines and social distancing? Check! Indicting and trying to jail a presidential candidate? Check! Collapsing the Russian government through a proxy war in Ukraine? Check! Just because they’re powerful doesn’t… Read more »
I don’t disagree with the essay overall, but regarding the famous razor, hasn’t it already been established that there truly is a lot of malice among the decision making class? Incompetent – yes – but malicious also. Can’t this be a case of having a little from column A and a little from column B? When the vile Newland (Kaganovich) glibly says things like ‘screw the Europeans’ and stuff about burning up all the Ukrainians like so much worthless cordwood, I am inclined to assume both ill-will and casual/psychopathic disregard for the wellbeing of others. Maybe ALL others. Could it… Read more »
“Incompetent – yes – but malicious also.”
While I acknowledge the usefulness of Hanlon’s Razor as a heuristic to restrain paranoia, it is also has a history of convincing gullible whites to explain away serious threats.
For example, it is probably true that our elites really hate traditional whites and this hatred underlies massive immigration and DEI. Yet most conservatives still deploy their version of Hanlon’s Razor to avoid this awful truth.
The world is complex, outcomes can have many causes, and paranoia rarely helps, but Hanlon’s Razor has probably done more harm than good for traditional whites.
Malice has several legal definitions, one of which includes a conscious disregard for the rights, safety and welfare of others. That fits just about every action of the ZOG.
plenty of midwits point to hanlons razor and forget the hanlon dodge also exists. If I was an evil mastermind and fucked up, you bet your ass I’d try and perform a Hanlon dodge and write off my failed (or successful) evil as incompetence.
Agreed. ‘Tis a deadly combination indeed when malice, stupidity and stratagem strip off and go for a bare-backed threesome.
Hanlon’s razor is a metaphysical assertion, that is – it is not derived from evidence, but is a meta-theory that structures what counts as evidence and how that “evidence” is interpreted. This is always possible – indeed trivially easy to do. A metaphysical assumption can never be disproved by evidence. In practice, once accepted, the Hanlon meta-theory will Always explain-away malice as being instead something else. The effects can be seen in interpersonal life, as well as politics and sociology – when, for instance, the victim of genuinely malicious abuse by a sadist, has no difficulty in explaining it in… Read more »
Interesting views…it recalls when Nietzsche (and no doubt others) that argue that an e.g. a criminal is not guilty of his crime because he was the victim of circumstances beyond his control (or whatever); basically the old free will vs. deterministic arguments, I suppose. For all my love and study of Nietzsche, this is one of his themes I don’t agree with…I personally believe there is something to “free will” and ability to choose. Those who excuse everything to determinism, events beyond an individual’s control are, in my view, being just as dogmatic as the paranoiac who thinks that everything… Read more »
Bruce, you add depth to Z-man’s definition. In fact, both of you are correct, and form a “well rounded“ interpretation. One that I admit I was missing. From ChatGPT: ”… Limitations While Hanlon’s Razor is a helpful principle, it is not a hard rule: • Some actions are genuinely malicious. • While the simplest explanation is often incompetence, there are times when malice must be considered, especially in repeated or highly suspicious circumstances. • It shouldn’t prevent a balanced investigation into motives. Hanlon’s Razor reminds us to approach situations with logic and kindness, rather than jumping to the worst conclusions.… Read more »
https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=33208#comment-436141
Well, another reason it is spouted is because there isn’t much that can be done about it that would not involve high risk to personal status. Waiting for incompetence to eventually cause its own collapse is a little easier to morally swallow than saying it is evil. Evil tends to demand a more active response.
If the GAE was governed purely by incompetence, then at least occasionally, by accident, it should do something that benefits white families and white males.
You do realize that’s exactly what the DIE types argue with their “redlining” and “disparate impact” nonsense, right?
I’m talking about explicit regime policy and actions. Redlining is a natural flow of investment to areas where it produces a return, and withholding of investment from where it doesn’t. Nothing necessarily to do with the regime itself. Disparate impact is also a natural outcome (I believe we’ve been over that here before).
This is true, but the flip side is also true — malice on another’s part is impossible for humans to prove because we have no way of knowing what he is thinking.
There is plenty of evil (and Evil) in the world, most assuredly. But there is also plenty of incompetence. I think it comes down to experience. If you are besting incompetence on a daily basis, it’s easy to whip out the Razor.
But if your lived experience is different, and if the other is incompetent…
Trump’s first major test will be resisting the enormous pressure coming from the usual suspects to bomb Iran. All the Syria episode did was to inform Iran in no uncertain terms (after Libya, Iraq etc) that nuclear weapons must be possessed in order to avoid regime change. And even then, they’re no guarantee (look at that Pakistani dude Mr. Khan in jail). If he gives in and bombs Iran, we will have 4 more years of the usual MIC-sponsored chaos.
Zion Don is already signalizing his obedience to Tel Aviv with upcoming limited strikes on ‘muh nuclear program’ in Iran. Which ironically has been on the verge of getting nukes since the mid 1980s !
It is why Hegseth will be confirmed, when you get down to it, even if he claims to be a recovering Neocon.
It is curious why so many people are lining up behind this guy. As if there’s no one else who wants to rein in the rainbow excesses of the DoD. As if there aren’t others who also want that, who are more qualified than he. For some unknown reason, he’s the indispensable man.
The Third Temple psychosis makes him a player on the team that counts.
Hegseth is a Freemason. His Chi-Rho tattoo isn’t because he’s Greek Orthodox. They’re allies of the Zionists and the reason why he has backers coming out of closets everywhere to sell America on our latest “last, best hope for peace” or whatever.
It’s a safe assumption that any politician that has attended an Ivy League, is a member of at least one secret society. Hegseth has three that I know of: Mason, Koch Clan & Bear Stearns alumnus.
“What friends did you make along your path to political success?” is not an idle question.
Personally, I think he’s “indispensable” because only a terrible negotiator would start out the deal with, “OK, who do you want me to nominate?”
At the very least, make the guy on the other side of the table use his capital to block the deal.
True, He’s saved by the fact that he’s a rabid zionist. I’d hate this guy regardless of of anything else because he is an arrogant, narcissistic, lecherous prick who sold out to the system a long long time ago. I’m sure since then his handlers have compiled an extensive portfolio of blackmail material on him. I think everyone has had to deal with a douche bag like him in high school or college. Unfortunately, these are the qualities that will get you ‘ahead’ in this world.
I think he will. Iran is just another endless war project. He’s more likely to strangle them economically and use the monetary savings to rebuild this country, pay for deportations, and replenish military stockpiles.
Considering how many of our weapons didn’t do much good in Ukraine, which weapons get replenished might get some scrutiny.
What’s also interesting to watch is the responses. Moscow quickly made a deal with HST to allow the Russian forces free passage to their bases on the coast, and to keep the bases until Putin decides whether they’re worth keeping. The Israelis took some more of the Golan Heights. The Turks are obsessed with the Kurds. The Iranians went home and are getting even closer to Moscow. The Biden regime is cynically taking credit for bringing “freedom” to Syria, while creating even more chaos before they leave. Trump? Who knows?
The Russian response has been interesting. They are far more concerned with the Turks screwing around in the Caucuses. They might be thinking that a civil war in Syria will draw the Islamists from the Caucuses out of the mountains and into Syria. The collapse of Syria could be a blessing in disguise, if they play their cards right.
I’m inclined to think so, if only for the reason that a lot of people seem to think that these rebels will become compliant little American and Bagel lapdogs for some cash and prizes from the Clowns In Action. These guys are not idiots, since they see what trusting the Americans gets you in the failed states of the region. There’s every chance that the new Syrian rulers will be exactly like the mujahedeen in Afghanistan, who defeated the Soviets and then turned on the Americans.
Yes. The same has happened in Iraq although it isn’t quite as blatant.
What you say is true enough Rick. Alas, the persistent problem is that from the point of view of the paid, it’s extremely hard to say “no” to another 20 mill in your Swiss account and/or a new shipment of shiny new weapons for your minions, just as long as you agree to dance a bit longer to the organ grinder’s tune.
The Patriarch of Moscow and All of Rus will not be happy if the jihadis brutalize the Orthodox, though, so surely that is of some concern to the Russian government.
I think Johnny Jihad learned his lesson about keeping his hands off the Orthodox a long time ago when the Russians mailed the body parts of some jihadis back to their families with the implication that their children would be next. There’s a reason that Russia doesn’t have trucks mowing down civilians at Christmas markets.
You don’t need second order thinking if you’re the only game in town. Israel, I am sure, wants a civil war between the players in Syria. That is what we got from Iraq after the US got rid of Saddam Hussein, and despite the fact that, on paper, Iraq is far closer to Iran today and somewhat of a client state, the neocons still point to this operation as a proud accomplishment. This tells me that they feel it benefitted Israel, and I am positive that they feel they can handle the post-Assad situation in Syria in much the samer… Read more »
Quite right, they care about the 2nd order effects about as much as Elliott Management cares about the 2nd order effects of plundering an old heartland corporation
Damn the murderously meddling US government to hell. I guess not having to worry about foreign state sponsored chaos on our own borders gives them license and opportunity to F up any other place in the world – all in the name of sacred democracy.
I guess not having to worry about foreign state sponsored chaos on our own borders
Sarcasm?
The current border crisis here is of their own doing – as such I suppose one could actually consider the US government as a foreign state sponsor, as they certainly don’t ever do anything that’s in the best interests of the actual country of America.
Seems there is plenty of foreign state sponsored chaos on and within our borders. We just mistake said foreign state for an ally and the chaos as a “strength.”
There was a big thread up on reddit the last couple days about the “Hippie Trail,” the route more or less from London to Bangkok or Australia, through the Middle East, to include Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Kashmir, Kathmandu, etc. Immortalized by Men At Work (“on a hippie trail head full of zombie”) Numerous replies from old hippies about their experiences traveling it as young backpackers. The thing that came up over and over was how, back when this was a thing, in the 60s and 70s, it was generally a free and easy passage, with the people and governments… Read more »
We now learn from Alistair Crooke that when Assad flew to Moscow to meet with Putin the day before the terrorists struck, Putin informed Assad that Russia and Iran would not be coming to save his bacon. When Assad returned to Damascus, he had already made up his mind to abdicate…without informing anyone. He instructed his military commanders to stand down and prepare for a regime change. We all watched this unfold. On his last day in office, Assad told his prime minister to prepare a speech to be read to the public the next day informing them of his… Read more »
That’s an important detail. The Russians had been pressuring Assad to adopt some some of federalized system for some time. It’s not hard to imagine this was brought to a head at that last meeting, with Assad being unwilling, unable, or, most likely, both.
Why can’t it be all four?
Por que no los cuatro?
American elites do not simply undertake poorly thought out schemes that sometimes blow up in their faces. They deliberately choose the worst possible course of action and then keep at it until it does blow up in their faces. The timing may be accidental, but the result isn’t. Russia supported Baathist-led Syria because it was in the interests of any Western government to do so. Leave it to Iran to back the Shiite minority, and the Arab Gulf states the Sunni majority. Even from a humanitarian perspective, the minority Alawite government best protected the interests of other, more Western-friendly Christian… Read more »
But what does “blow up in their face” even mean? They never face any actual consequences to their horrible decisions. They continue to live lives of plenty in beautiful towns, send their kids to the best schools, command a great deal of credibility and respect in the circles they run, etc. Other people pay the price, and it just so happens that it is USUALLY people who they hate and want destroyed. They rarely even get criticized or face any accountability whatsoever – one of the best aspects of managerialism (for them) is that you can always pawn off your… Read more »
That is how the aliens have managed to survive for the past couple millennia. Consequences exist as holocausts in their fevered imaginations.
The Dissidents are woefully blind when it comes to world “real-geopolitik”. Of course this is all deliberate – and to some extent – controlled and directed.Theres a meme that cracks me up on Blab where the CIA is funding Al-Quieda, some other American three-letter agency is funding ISIS…and the American tax payer is in the middle of it with a stupid look on his face wondering what in hell is going on. The goal of all this is to deliberately induce chaos in the Arab world. If the rag heads are fighting each other – then they aren’t fighting us… Read more »
“Welp – the Arabs will fight, the power vacuums will fill, alliances will forge, and then – horrors!!! – they’ll start to unify.”
If unification were remotely plausible, it would have probably happened sometime after the death of Mohamed in the 7th century. The only thing that seems to have “united” Sunni and Shia to any extent is Gaza. And that’s just because the Exploding Mohameds hate Jews worse than they hate each other.
Nonsense.
Saddam might have done it, had he not been taken out by the establishment. People forget that those exploding Mohammeds invented farming, math, science, writing, the wheel and simple machines like the inclined plane.
Filthie:
Joking much? The wheel was invented about 5000 years ago in Messopotamia. The algebra —by the 9th century Persian called Mohammed, who was forcefully converted into Islam, like a majority of Zoroastrian Persians.
Thank you, Anna. “…farming, math, science, writing, the wheel and simple machines like the inclined plane.” Please, Filthie, go study your Yamnaya and Tryptillia (1st city, population 30,000 in Romania), or better yet your Gobleke Tepe, your Bosnian and Taurim Basin pyramids.
Diophantus(Greek) invented algebra.
Even Wikipedia ,grudgingly, admits he “helped” the Arabs invent algebra.LOL.
Muslims invented nothing. How could they? Being a low-IQ tribal raiding group who first conquered lots of higher IQ (but pozzed) people in the Byzantine Empire, then built al-Andalus with lots of Western European slaves courtesy of the Viking Slave trade, and the glories of Baghdad by lots of Eastern European slaves courtesy of the Vikings also (mostly the Swedes). The zero: India. Algebra (conquered Greeks). Writing: the modern alphabet is traced back to the Phoenicians. No Muslim ever farmed if he could have a foreign slave do it for him. Indeed no Muslim ever did a lick of work… Read more »
no they don’t . they are always willing to make quiet accomdations with the jews to get a leg up on the other factions in the arab world. that has been their downfall.
I forget, has Israel ever attacked ISIS or any of its offshoots?
If you have secure borders and possess an in-group preference that relegates the rest of the species to the status of animals, then bloody internecine chaos on your border may be preferable to independent, functioning nation states on your border.
Where does the welfare of the Syrian people enter the picture?
Just yesterday, Scott Pelley announced on 60 Minutes that the Syrian people “finally have a taste of freedom,” I think that’s pretty close to an exact quote (going from memory).
Where does the welfare of the American people enter the picture?
When I’m doubt, media outlets go with atrocity porn against the old regime. We have the rebel smoosher, the prisoner who has seen daylight for the first time in years, and the genocide level 99 percent or prisoners being dead.
Even apolitical people are laughing at this now.
If they all didn’t deserve to die in a fire, you almost could feel sorry for Regime propagandists. People do indeed openly laugh at them now, and that is far more damaging than protests and terror in the long run. The British and Soviets weren’t this ludicrous as their empires slipped away.
More good analysis and cautionary wisdom to be gleaned from current events. But what has changed as a result? A deeper understanding of the mess we’re in. Is that good enough? Why not reference an actual example of a current event that was consequential? United Healthcare employed AI software to deny medical claims at a whooping rate of over 34%; far higher than the insurance industry average of 15%. Luigi put in dent in that problem. That was no trivial impact.
Trying to read the tea leaves, all I’m certain of is that we’re moving closer to WWIII every day.
Wait, they didn’t expect collapse? Are you saying the U.S. and Israel haven’t been working to collapse the Assad regime for over a decade?
As I understand Z, he thinks they didn’t consider the second order effects, which based on past debacles seems a safe bet.
The point is to break the ‘Shia Crescent” and Russian power and influence in the region. A ‘Great Game” updated for the 21st century.
At first I thought the word “Nemisis” appeared in the title due to some malicious reason, but the author told us to apply Hamlin’s razor.
That’s Hamlet’s razor…
Or Kremlin’s.
There is a lot of hubris and the God complex among all these actors too, more than mere incompetence.
Three different conflicting groups:
“…backed by … the CIA”
“…supported by … the U.S. State Department, and the CIA”
“…have the protection of the American military operating in the region”
It really doesn’t matter if there was “a reason” why it happened. You do that much F’ing Around and you’re bound to Find Out eventually. And you might not like what you Find Out.
It’s absolutely unsurprising the people of the region hate the US so much.
Z has restated the Hanlon’s Razor definition I’m most familiar with, replacing “stupidity” with “incompetence, neglect, or ignorance”. That’s acceptable as far as it goes, but I suggest he’s omitted other important base desires that lead to trouble such as greed. I’ve seen a similar rule with the terms “greed, sloth and stupidity.” It curious to note that of those three, only stupidity is not a cardinal sin. Apparently God is OK with stupidity.
Not really:
“The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.” (Psalm 14:1)
The Biblical “fool” isn’t just some moron. He’s a real asshole. God agrees with me (of course): Stupidity is a kind of malice.
How I see this playing out. the Isr/turk/US sponsore of this mayhem will be hands off while the Sunni rebels genocide the christians and alawhites. they will do some token fighting wtih the sheites, but the much fewer sheits will come to accomodation . a few million syrians will die in the grid down no electricity/water/food/medical care/fuel chaos. then for some unknown reason, the money, munitions and supplies to thoes suni nrebels will dry up. after a few months of no supportthey will be easy pickins’ for the IDF and turks. Who will come in on humanitatian grounds to restore… Read more »
I disagree, there was mountians of malice involved in this.
Israel directly benefits from the fall of Assad — it closes the arms supply route from Iran. Don’t take my word for it. Listen to leader of Hezbollah:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hezbollah-chief-says-group-lost-arms-supply-route-from-iran-syrian-ouster-assad
Of course, there is a downside to Israel from the inevitable chaos and uncertainty, but I’m certain this is a tradeoff they believe is a net positive for them.
My prediction is that new arms supply routes will soon materialize. When there’s money to be made and a need to be filled, and the intervening territory is filled with a lot of crazies in need of money. Well….
“The Israelis might be happy Assad is gone for emotional reasons, but having a bunch of Islamist warlords operating on their border just added a lot of new costs to their budget.”
Their budget?
OUR budget, and as for the Israelis not being happy with having a new border with takfiris, recall that Israel created (not indirectly, but directly with organizational and financial support) Hamas to serve as a focus for Palestinian resistance to weaken the PLO. The Israelis indirectly created Hezbollah. They invaded Lebanon in 1982, drove the PLO out, then didn’t leave. The Lebanese were initially no unhappy to see the departing backsides of the Palestinians, but then when the Jews made no efforts to go home after the mission was accomplished, the Lebanese were like “oh, shit. we are the new… Read more »
The ultimate conspiracy theory is that Assad was part of the deep state all along and they told him to throw the battle. Probably, because they are under time pressure. January 20th is the cut- off date.
Causing chaos and disorder in Syria is a not a problem for the beltway morons. That’s their main job.
[…] ZMan lays it out. […]
So the dog caught the car, is what you’re saying? The sanctions and keeping the oil and wheat from the Syrians worked better than expected and intended.
“Nemesis.” Please. That’s gonna bug me every time I look at it today!