Note: Behind the green door, there is a post about the blob, a post about big stupid trucks, and the Sunday podcast. Subscribe here or here. Last Wednesday was the kickoff of a show with Paul Ramsey, which you can watch on Paul’s channel. I also did an appearance on the Mike Farris show, which can be seen here.
The Trump administration’s opening of direct talks with the Russians setoff panic in Kiev and the capitals of Europe. The reason for that is Project Ukraine was centered on the acceptance that there could be no direct talks with Moscow, until the Russians surrendered their country to the control of the usual suspects. Trump’s call with Putin and then the meeting in Saudi Arabia violated this central assumption. First there was panic and now there is a game of chicken.
The Trump administration has concluded, after assessing the situation inside and outside the issue of Ukraine, that normalizing relations with Russia is in the best interest of the United States. One of the obstacles to that is the war in the Ukraine, so logically they are looking to wrap up the war as quickly as possible. The Russians have agreed to talks with Ukraine but insist on elections in Ukraine first. They point out that by the laws of Ukraine, Zelensky does not have the power to sign a deal.
Russophobes argue that this is a stalling tactic, but they are the ones demanding the unconditional surrender of Russia before any talks can start, so this is the usual projection that is a feature of the post-liberal West. The Russians, having been burned by the Minsk agreements charade, want the next deal to have teeth, so they are insisting that it be signed by the internationally and domestically recognized leader of Ukraine, which means new elections.
The Russians would probably drop this demand if the EU were willing to co-sign whatever deal is struck, but such an offer will never come. The reason is the whole project relies on never having direct talks with the Russians. This is the trap setup in 2023 to keep everyone committed to Project Ukraine. Ukraine passed a law forbidding direct talks with Russia in exchange for unlimited support. Europe signed on in exchange for unlimited support from Washington.
The reason the Biden administration expedited the remaining weapons and money allocated to this project was an effort to prevent the incoming Trump administration from rethinking these arrangements. They would not have time to do that, as Ukraine would immediately need more money and weapons. The assumption was that they would have no choice but to go along with more money and weapons, thus entangling Trump in the Ukraine trap.
The underlying assumption was that Trump would not walk away from Project Ukraine and risk the image of Russian tanks rumbling through Kiev. This is the assumption the Europeans and Zelensky are relying on as they deal with Trump. In fact, Zelensky is so confident of this that he is going out of his way to jerk around the Trump administration on the mineral rights deal. Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer are coming to Washington this week to set Trump straight.
Reportedly, Starmer and Macron will present a plan to Trump that has the UK and France putting troops into Ukraine, while the United States provides air cover from bases in Poland and Romania. In effect, the United States must create a no-fly zone over Ukraine and go to war with Russia if the Russians violate it. The madness of the scheme is so beyond the pale it is hard to accept as real, but the Europeans are operating in an alternative reality from the rest of us.
The Trump people see that the main obstacle to their plans for normalizing relations with Russia is Zelensky. Anyone who has dealt with a deadbeat knows Zelensky and the best way of dealing with this type is to get rid of them. Elections will remove him from the picture. The end of American support will also remove him from the picture, as the only reason for him to exist is as a facilitator of money and arms into Ukraine, mostly the money, which is stolen by Ukrainian officials.
The danger of pulling the plug on Ukraine is that it could be bad public relations, which is where the mineral rights dispute comes into play. The point of this is to make it appear as if Zelensky is unwilling to make a deal for more money and make it look like he is the obstacle to a peace deal. Trump’s team has figured out that Zelensky cannot sign the mineral deal, and he cannot agree to negotiations, so they are pressing on both in order to shift the blame to him.
What is setting up is a game of chicken. On one side we have Zelensky and the Europeans, who are sure Trump will never walk away from Ukraine. It is why they are getting bolder in their demands. They think Trump is bluffing. On the other side we have Team Trump who is sure the Europeans will fall in line, rather than risk a break with Washington, even if it means abandoning Ukraine. Zelensky is sure he has fooled everyone with his latest schemes.
For their part, the Russians are making the prudent bet. It costs them nothing to talk with the Trump administration and there is a good chance it leads to a positive outcome, so they will follow that route to the end. Similarly, the Chinese have made positive noises about the start of talks between Moscow and Washington. Like the Russians, the Chinese welcome the return of normalcy to Washington. China and Russia are open for business and ready to make deals.
It is too soon to know how this ends, but this game of chicken revolves around Zelensky being the ruler of Ukraine, which means the way to avoid a collision is to remove him from the equation. The Russians figured this out two years ago. The Chinese figured it out last year when they had talks with him. Now the Trump administration has arrived at the same conclusion. That leaves the Europeans and the bet in the White House right now is they will choose Washington over Zelensky.
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At this point the Eurorats should go all in and see how quickly their native population starts building guillotines. What else is left but a complete collapse of EU? I live here and I love my heritage but the cancerous parasites must die before our people can once again begin to innovate, create and find a spiritual calling.
Many young Englishmen and Frenchmen have stated they will go to prison before they go to Ukraine. It is hard to see how an inevitable miliary draft wouldn’t set off domestic unrest that would quickly spiral out of control. That might even be a good thing for indigenous Europeans.
“Many young Englishmen and Frenchmen have stated they will go to prison before they go to Ukraine.”
LOL the “young Englishmen and Frenchmen” are all named Mohammed and Abdul…
France no longer maintains demographic breakdowns, for reasons, but it it is believed most under 18, let alone those who are older, continue to be white. That obviously is the case in Britain as well, although there are hard numbers to back that up. There are now more non-white births in the United States than white ones. No European country is as bad off. If drafts are implemented, the way to bet is Mohammedans would be excluded even though they are not the majorities; again, for reasons. The problem for the warmongers is both the French and British white youth… Read more »
“The Russians would probably drop this demand if the EU were willing to co-sign whatever deal is struck..” No, not a chance…That was Minsk I and II..Russians would trust a rabid dog before they trusted the EU or the Ukraine…It’s Trump only and entirely, and Russia would demand many safeguards, probably with Russian troops embedded…Which is why a deal is very unlikely…which is why the war will end only when Trump pulls all US support for the criminals who run the Ukraine…
Yeah, this is a Gordian Knot. From Putin’s point of view, with whom is he signing a deal? Obviously not Zelensky, since his term has expired. With Europe? What’s that? On top of it all, Scholz is done, Starmer will be done soon and Macron has lost 3 elections in a row. Even if he trusted Trump, Putin may fear that Trump/Vance could be done in 4 years and he may have to relitigate (or re-fight) the whole thing again. It’s just a mess. These knuckleheads have created a generational problem in Ukraine. Even breaking up Ukraine along the lines… Read more »
Dealing with Ukraine is like dealing with Californication.
Somebody needs to look at a map. Those mineral deposits are mostly in areas currently controlled by the Russians.
Unless Trump betrays the nation as all his predecessors have, Macron and Starmer are wasting their time. How soon they forget the clown show when Angela Merkel loomed over him, trying to intimidate him as he sat at the negotiating table. I don’t think a couple Euro soy boys will have any better luck, but whadda I know.
I also think Zelenskyy is either going to disappear with his stolen millions or have his Ceauşescu moment soon. The world is changing.
The people who talk about “valuable mineral deposits” have never spent one day analyzing mineral or oil projects, nor have they ever bought a single share in a mining or oil stock. I have lost money in “valuable mineral/oil deposits” on every continent at this point (except Europe haha). Fertile agricultural land (of which Ukraine has plenty) holds its value though, assuming they don’t take it away from you.
The problem is that the “valuable mineral deposits” are not sitting in a vault, like our gold at Ft. Knox (sarcasm). It is very expensive to mine them, which is why they are still in the ground.
And the Rare Earths are *very* costly and “environmentally unfriendly” to process after they have been mined. Even more unfriendly than the dreaded carbon dioxide.
Value, sure, once they’re cleared of millions of mines.
Apparently, soy boy Starmer and his gay sidekick Macron are planning to create their own no-fly zone over Ukraine, with planes based in Poland.
Of course, these planes will quickly be shot down, and possibly the bases in Poland will be attacked too, as Russia has previously promised.
They hope this will provoke an “Article 5” event, forcing the US to join the war.
Yes, they are insane. And no, I don’t think Trump will go along with it.
France is irrelevant. The UK is worse than irrelevant. What matters is Germany. Right now there is an illegitimate caretaker regime in Berlin. And so what matters in Germany is where the new regime will position itself on the Ukraine question. At the moment, this is unclear. But given the most likely complexion of such a coalition, the range on Ukraine appears to run from no change to cosmetic change, i.e. more drift. But one clue is a bit of timing. The incoming Chancellor, Merz, has said that he expects to have a new coalition — one that will exclude… Read more »
A stunt like that would create a nice opening to pull out of NATO. Trump 2.0 might just have the balls.
While I would be overjoyed to see that, I don’t believe the majority of my fellow “countrymen” would. Although they would struggle if asked to articulate what interests of ours are served by remaining a member of the alliance. It’s just what they’ve been conditioned to believe.
You’re probably right. And Trump still has enough normie in him to stop short. But he can bluff right to the edge, which will scare the Euro girl bosses into submission.
Trump had better remember that he promised–promised–no wars. The voters were quite clear about that. And the mid-terms are not far off. And his hold on the House is razor-thin. And after shooting him, impeachment and prison for him and his whole family would be a minor thing for a new House, and 30 Senate seats are open in ’26. He would do well to remember all that.
It’s been clear from the beginning of this debacle that European leadership is nothing but empty vests. I applaud Trump and Vance and hope they simply ignore the Europeans and just work with Putin. If Putin wants Zelensky out, then get the elections done as quickly as possible regardless of any European complaints that they’re not somehow sitting at the negotiation table. Considering they have absolutely nothing to bring to the table means there’s no reason for them to be there anyway. Like her or not, Angela Merkle was correct decades before that it’s in all of Europe’s best interest to work… Read more »
The call for Ukrainian elections also is propaganda gold. Westerners have been told the country is a democracy and probably buy into it.
Will no one rid me of this turbulent dictator?
I would not bet on zelinski ever being able to ejoy the billions he has stolen, unless his tribe gets him out. Like the way they got epstine out.
After some plastic surgery he & jeffery can sit on a beach somewhere & talk shop.
While the Russians certainly would do it, the far more likely outcome always has been a murder of Zelensky at the direction of Western intelligence or Ukrainian nationalists.
Either way works as far as repeating history, I like option #2.
Cherry on top.
String Z & his wife upside down,
Mussolini style.
Bastard earned it.
I have far more questions than commentary. As Trek asked below, exactly why is it that Zelensky cannot sell the mineral rights? Laws do not seem to matter to him. Is it a previous public commitment or one made in private to a Western corporation such as Blackrock or to European and American officeholders? I actually LOVE Trump’s mineral acquisition proposal because it drops all pretense of Muh Principles and cuts to the heart of what drives everything in the modern world, money. The prominent folks banging on most about Muh Democracy (vs. the retarded NPC chorus) are the greediest… Read more »
It is For the same reason as you cannot sell Brooklyn bridge. You do not own it.
The access to rare earths is contingent on US troops taking over Donbas from the “weak” russkies.
OK… How about this possibility? Trump makes a deal with Putin for the minerals and then tells Europe and Ukraine to corrupt each other to death?
Have to question what Zelensky thinks is the “move”. Normally the local dictator would have departed for Caribbean or Riviera pastures by now, rather than get Diem’d.
Since Zelensky is not an ethnic Ukrainian and only learn to speak the language a few years ago I wouldn’t think he would hang around and go down with the ship. But he seems wildly overconfident.
Chutzpah. His kind always doubles down when cornered. They can’t not. It is of them. You can bet on it. It’s like the tide.
Zelensky may be counting on Congress to save him. We will see what comes out of budget reconciliation, but our legislators, who are probably looking for new kickbacks in the wake of DOGE, might unlikely to leave him high and dry. Trump could impound some of it, but not forever, and Zelensky could probably borrow against its eventual release.
Some people hate Trump and will always hate him. Some people hate Putin and will always hate him. It seems to me, though, that everyone outside of the hothouse of propaganda and official narrative hates Zelensky, including the Ukrainians. That hothouse support might mean something if Trump’s team weren’t cutting off funding everywhere, destroying the propagandists’ main force multiplier in this psyop. But as it stands, the Ukraine flag pin wearers shouting “Keef!” are now shouting it into the wind . The main impediment to peace is Zelensky, who is weak, unpopular, and corrupt, and probably a physical coward. But… Read more »
“The Russians would probably drop this demand if the EU were willing to co-sign whatever deal is struck, but such an offer will never come.” The Europeans co-signing wouldn’t give the agreement teeth either. Look at the Minsk agreements. Sorry to use such blunt language but the European “leaders” are a bunch of faggots whose word or signature means nothing. The Russians have to be knowing this. “Reportedly, Starmer and Macron will present a plan to Trump that has the UK and France putting troops into Ukraine, while the United States provides air cover from bases in Poland and Romania.… Read more »
Reportedly, Starmer and Macron will present a plan to Trump that has the UK and France putting troops into Ukraine
I keep coming back to “What troops from where?” Then I think “Maybe they think Trump will commit US troops to pick up the burden.”
As they used to say back in the day “WWW dot NOTGONNAHAPPEN dot COM”
It’s obvious the Euros are running the oldest play in the “democratic” book: unite your increasingly restless populace by presenting an outside enemy. In this case Russia, but soon, the US. According to Grok (I know, I know) the US sells/supplies somewhere between 55-63% of all European armaments. It’s been increasing steadily since the mid 2010s. The US is THE arms merchant for NATO. These countries will take years to retool their arms factories. I’d be shocked if the US couldn’t “brick” the high tech stuff immediately as well via software back doors. The US holds all the cards when… Read more »
An excellent synopsis. Russia’s ultimate goal is a NATO retreat from Eastern Europe and the removal of bases in which a nuclear armed missile can reach Moscow in less than 5 minutes flight time. This is rational, and we would not accept this dilemma if it were DC in the crosshairs. Trump is willing to comply but wants something in return, hence the negotiations. European governments are broke and need a war with Russia in order to mask their impending sovereign debt disaster. The wildcard is this is what will the 3rd World invaders do when the gravy train derails?
European governments are broke and need a war with Russia in order to mask their impending sovereign debt disaster. The wildcard is this is what will the 3rd World invaders do when the gravy train derails?
I was just thinking perhaps the Europeans want a war to 1) Hide their level of indebtedness and 2) hopefully force the immvaders back to their home countries, or at least take evidence of their “stabby-stabby, ‘splodey-‘sploey, screeech-splat!” tendencies off the front pages, TV and Computer screens.
Tom, any thoughts on Dan Bongino’s appointment as Deputy Director? I recall that you listened to him as a barometer of conservative thought.
Ukraine is too far away to maintain logistics, except at ruinous cost. Obviously known years ago.
Not practical to support war there. Not winnable nor sustainable. So the reasons for extended engagement are not military.
The whole world knew ground troops in Afghanistan was madness, futile, but it went forward anyway. So for the U.S., this was about money, not conquest. Bankster wars.
Perhaps Zelensky can go on a tour of the capitals of the world playing the piano with his dick dressed like he is ready for a night out on the Castro district underground.
Great essay, as usual.
One nit, however, in spelling “Kiev”. According the current AP style guide, it is spelled “Keeeeeeve”.
“The Trump people see that the main obstacle to their plans for normalizing relations with Russia is Zelensky. Anyone who has dealt with a deadbeat knows Zelensky and the best way of dealing with this type is to get rid of them.”
Maybe the little Jewish comedian will have to go back to playing piano with his dick for a living instead of grifting off the U.S. taxpayer… oy vey:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 2016 Playing Piano with Penis – YouTube
I’m not clicking. It’s breakfast time here.
This analysis makes sense. But why can’t Zelensky sign over minerals or agree to negotiations? Is it because the Ukrainians won’t let him do it?
My question, too. I assume it is legalistic. The reality probably has something to do with a corporation like Blackrock or public officials. promised the spoils in exchange for greasing the right palms.
Most of the minerals aren’t in places he has any control over.
I imagine that however maniacal our European and NATO “allies” are, native Ukes and their GAE running dogs have twice the mania. They really do believe that Russia is their greatest enemy, not the hordes from the global south, nor the sexual and racial ideologies from the GAE.
Also he got mere gibs from the USA, but with Europe he has guarantees to repay.
There are are three potential reasons for why he cannot sell the rights. One is he lacks the power to do it. These are surely owned by powerful people in Ukraine. The other is that he has secretly pledged them to Europe. The other is they do not exist. The good stuff is now under the feet of Russian soldiers and the rest may not be what they claim. My hunch is it is a combination of the first two. The Europeans took advantage of the Biden people, who were only concerned about war with Russia. These deals were made… Read more »
Haven’t the rare earth mineral rights already been previously sold to Britain?
Von der Leyden and other EU leaders took the Special Forces train to Kiev this morning to pledge more weapons and support, and to urge Ukraine to continue the war. A big middle finger to Trump and Putin. How does this end? With Trump declaring war on the EU? What’s wrong with these people? It’s like the governor of Maine with the trans thing — there can’t be any other reason for this than money. They’re the only people who want it. And they’re destroying all of us to get it. It’s got to stop. Europe will be gone in… Read more »
At this point, i’m more interested in what Putin thinks the endgame is. Hard to believe he will accept any deal that includes NATO peacekeepers or even bilateral security guarantees, let alone a no fly zone. Even a minerals deal, however sketchy, looks like a trap.
They might just force him to take the whole thing, and turn Ukraine into Belarus.
If there ever was even a kernel of truth to the ideological motivation for NATO as deterrent to the aggression from the totalitarian Soviets as opposed to just naked expansionism, that motivation can no longer exist. The European rulers are openly anti-democratic and hostile to their own populations. They enthusiastically embrace many of the hallmark characteristics of the kind of ideology and political organization that the US was previously ready to nuke the entire world to prevent from ascending to power globally. Up to a month ago our own rulers were aligned with these authoritarian malefactors who assume the power… Read more »
What does the “new” oligarchy that’s backing Trump want re: Ukraine? If the public face of this oligarchy, Elon, can be considered representative of them, then they want out, Ukraine and the EU be damned. Maybe especially if Ukraine and the EU are damned, as a feature and not a bug. (whether or not Elon really speaks for them, another discussion). Thus I conclude that little to no concessions to Zelensky or the Eurocrats will be made. Whether and how this is to be sold to Civnat G. Normiecon, conditioned to see Russia and Putin as the current incarnation of… Read more »
Re: Paul Ramsey
The commercials I got stuck with were unbearably long and there was no option to skip through. It was something about people stealing the signal from your credit card. I clicked out of it.
I’ll have to try again.
Is this even possible when Crimea and the new republics are not recognized as parts of Russia, yet, they are not going to participate in the elections?