Crime City

Recently I was searching around for publicly available police data and found that a surprising amount of data is available to the public. Often it is very portable, letting the curious download raw data from government systems. Many cities have built out API’s so you can get live feeds from their systems. I found a treasure trove of raw arrest data from the City of Baltimore. Like a lot of cities, they have exposed their database of arrests to the public. The data only goes back to the beginning of 2013, but that’s a lot.

Since the first of day of 2013, Baltimore City police have made 152,103 arrests as of September 30th, 2017. That works out to an average of 87 arrests per day. That does not sound like a big number, but according to studies, the average time awaiting trial is close to 40 days. The number of people being held in the city awaiting trial is about 8,000, on average. Put another way, about 1.3% of the city’s population is held at any one time, awaiting their turn in the criminal justice system. That does not included convicts.

Just in case you are thinking about being arrested in Baltimore, here’s the daily breakout.

Of course, the break down by race is what you would expect in Baltimore.

Interestingly, there were only 1428 arrests for murder and attempted murder. They don’t code the crimes in an easily understood way. I simply searched for all arrests containing the word murder, which included attempted murder. Netting out the lesser charge and the total is just 252 arrests for the crime of murder. In the same period, 1382 homicides were committed in the city.  It appears arrests for attempted murder is where they start with murder cases. That or the murder total would be much higher if the locals had better aim.

Here’s the racial break down of murder related arrests.

The black share of arrests for murder related offenses should be viewed in addition to two other statistics. Baltimore is 63% black according to the last census and 29% white. This means that blacks are over represented in the arrest data for murder related crime. Whites are under represented. It should be noted that Hispanics are counted as white, but the city has a small Hispanic population. Even so, whites are significantly under represented. This is a pattern that turns up in all homicide studies, even in majority black cities.

The other factor is the victimization data. Murder is almost always a personal crime so the murderer usually knows the victim or they live in the same area. Even in a city like Baltimore, where one block can seem like a different country from the next block, most violent crime is personal. That means most times, the murderer is of the same race as the murdered. Looking at the victimization data, the number of black murder victims over the same period tracks the arrest pattern, as far as the racial breakdown.

Here is the racial break down of the murder victims.

The victim numbers let us net out the Hispanics from the white total, but Baltimore does not have a big Latino population, so the numbers don’t change much. Given the white flight to the suburbs, the city’s white population is probably closer to 25% in this time period, but the white crime share is around 5%. On the other hand, Blacks are 65% of the city’s population and 90% of homicide related crime and over 80% of all arrests. Put another way, if you removed the black population, Baltimore would resemble Salt Lake City.

Finally, here are the arrests by age.

Here’s the arrests by interesting cohort.

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67 Comments on "Crime City"

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Dan Kurt
Member

Where is the new Marcus Garvey to send them all back to Africa?

Dan Kurt

Joey Junger
Guest

They hate us, but they need us, which makes them hate us more. The relationship between white America and black America is sort of like that between an ageing parent and their grown son living at home who’s a drug-addict, the kind who will insult you while rummaging through your wallet.

Member

Even worse: an eighteen year old being raised by grandparents because mom got knocked up by a nigger and is now out running around or in prison. The poor grandparents don’t do any better raising the grandson than they did his mother, in fact worse because they have even been more indulgent when he was young than they were with her. Many of these old folks end up dead. Can’t say they don’t deserve it, though.

jay dee
Guest

Surprising the number of people arrested in their 30s, 40s, even 50s????

I understand being an asshole at 22…….but FIFTY??????!!!! Whatsamatter with you?

Phil Ossiferz Stone
Guest
Go look at the homicide stats on FBI.gov. The biggest, most dangerous men are the ones who got busted, yo. Served their time and came out a soulja, yo. Gonna run my own crew now, yo. Maybe they got busted twice or more and served time on each one of them. We’re talking about big mean older sumbitches with tats and scar tissue all over their bodies who are experienced, ruthless, violent, desensitized predators. And instead of using their age and patrician experience to show younger men the ropes and provide a good role model…. well…. actually, that’s EXACTLY what… Read more »
Brianguy
Guest

Hood rats with loose sphincters.
I had to go there…

Joey Junger
Guest

A lot of these people are addicts and this shows why the Reason Magazine wing of libertarianism (needles in the arms, dicks in the ass) is a lost cause. Even if you were to make simple possession a ticket-only offense, withdrawal from heroin is so agonizing that people will do anything to get it. The difference between an addict struggling with their “disease” and someone busting your window (or your head) with a tire iron is a couple of hours of withdrawal.

james wilson
Guest

Withdrawal from heroin is not agonizing. That’s a myth popularized through a Sinatra movie in the 50’s. Withdrawal is a drag, the loss of your best and only friend. Speed is the pits. Any junkie experienced in both will tell you the same thing. Given a reliable supply, it is possible to live a long and productive life on heroin. Speed is ruthless.

Joey Junger
Guest

I’m familiar with “The Man with the Golden Arm.” It’s based on a Nelson Algren book. I’ve known several junkies and still know some, and while Suboxone is effective (more effective than methadone) it’s incredibly expensive and junkies don’t like jumping through all those hoops to get it. If you don’t think people are involved in robberies (and violent ones) on a daily basis, in order to get heroin, you’re delusional. Meth is harder to kick, but it also brings dangers from cooking (like explosions and water table contamination) that you don’t get with heroin.

Saml Adams
Guest

Meth people are nuts. One of my cousins is a farm manager in the rural Midwest. They lease/own about 20k acres, mostly consolidated former family farms with a lot of abandoned buildings on the properties. He finally started carrying a pistol + a truck gun after surprising a couple of “cooks” that had set up for the weekend in old barns. Good way to get killed when its just you, them and the sheriff that might be 30 minutes away.

Karl McHungus
Guest

i know where you can get all the replacement mexicans you could wish for — cheap!

Karl McHungus
Guest

remember that guy that stole a tank in San Diego, and was driving around flattening cars? meth head.

Member

If you see someone who looks below normal body weight with browning teeth you are looking at a meth addict.

Old Surfer
Guest

Or a really heavy coffee drinker….

Member

My wife (pediatrician) introduced me to a description I had never heard before: “meh-mou” (i.e. meth mouth…but the users can’t actually say it due to their dental loss)

Not just brown teeth, but horrific and missing teeth, combined with low body weight and other signs.

notsothoreau
Guest

But the interesting thing is that you can’t overdose on meth. It does age your body at an alarming rate

Karl McHungus
Guest

please provide a url for that statement, because it looks very wrong.

Member
I don’t have a link to anything, but I’ve never seen anyone die of a meth overdose, and I don’t know what a lethal dose would be. Opioids kill by suppressing the respiratory centers. The problems with meth are caused by end organ damage caused by sympathetic nervous system overstimulation or vasospasm. So you get heart attacks, strokes, renal insufficiency, rotten teeth, urinary retention, etc. Most of these things do a lot of damage and some can kill in a secondary way, but meth itself wouldn’t be the direct cause of death, and most people survive them, despite the subsequent… Read more »
Member

https://www.drugabuse.gov/related-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates

It’s less than some (like opioids), but still growing dramatically.

YIH
Guest

Not really, I’m not sure what the toxic (OD) dose is, but what meth does is it ‘overdrives’ the metabolism. Like running an engine past ‘redline’ for an extended period of time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methamphetamine#Overdose

Pimpkin\'s nephew
Guest

If that is true, it is the worst thing I have heard all day. “A joyless trudge to the graveyard”.

Sounds like a plan for the social engineers to me.

Brianguy
Guest

@jay dee….
Yeah what’s with that downward slope between 28-40?? Must be incarceration. Then the rounded descent after 50. Must be maturity kicking in and they’re weary of the system??

Larry Darrell
Guest

On the internet you can get a live feed of the police radio dispatch in cities like Detroit and Chicago. Chimpouts.

Member
The Washington Post has built a database on fatal police shootings each year: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/police-shootings-2017/ Now, if you watch these NFL “kneelers” protesting police killings and police brutality, and if you listen to Liberal media, what would you estimate the 2017 totals are so far? Total fatal incidents involving police in 2017: 768 Percent black: 20% Appx: 154 Of that, how many are actually controversial in some way? If BLM riots are the gauge…less than 10. Considering ZMan’s data/charts, we don’t have a police killings problem – at all – in this country. It happens, yes, but hardly a problem. If… Read more »
Joey Junger
Guest
This is the great thing about being a race-realist/ being on the dissident right. When quantitative analysis is staring you in the face, you only need to be as numerate as a first grader to see why the left and progressives are full of shit. You can’t argue with this data any more than you can argue with surveillance footage of a robbery-in-progress. The age graph tallies with what Edward Bunker said in his books and movies about his own life of crime, that it’s generally a young man’s game. This is another reason “demographic winter” in Europe is a… Read more »
TomA
Guest
This reality has been known for decades, and both elected officials and government administrators are fully aware of this disparity. None will speak up because that is a career-ender, and consequently this problem will never be confronted nor remediated. The only rational conclusion to draw from this impasse is that the black community will forever be condemned to live in fear and violence in most urban communities. They would be wise to flee these cities and resettle in smaller rural towns, but that’s not going to happen because the welfare addiction is designed to keep them in place and voting… Read more »
Karl McHungus
Guest

that and the fact that they would be bringing all the pathology from the ghetto to their new homes. negroes *are* the disease.

A.B. Prosper
Guest
So tell me, what kind of work is available for people with IQ’s in the high double digits that is supervised enough for people with weaker impulse control and yet remunerative enough that a man can raise a family with a measure of dignity and economic participation ? Broken families are a big part of the family but economics, automation and trade are the rest . Its also why White in the Rust Belt have so many pathologies. No hope for a future Now White communities can be safer but a nation wide Appalachia which still has 50% greater homicide… Read more »
Eclectic Esoteric
Guest
The role of the welfare queen in perpetuating these statistics cannot be ignored. Married to Uncle Sam, the actual men in her life are drones that exist to serve these narcissistic four-hundred pound queen bees, most as a cheap source of insemination, quickly discarded after the next meal ticket is conceived. The sons are taught to steal early on and hand over the spoils to the monster that birthed them. There’s safety in numbers, something gang membership provides when the “mother” sends them out to rob and steal. Girls are socially isolated as well and have only the example of… Read more »
Reluctantreactionary
Guest

I was in downtown Salt Lake City last year. Utah is starting to get pozzed too. The LDS church has embraced diversity to some extent.

Saml Adams
Guest
Personal favorite has always been this..http://heyjackass.com One point always like to bring up with Progs is that, in general, once you remove the 14-34 AA cohort in the top twenty metros, the US looks an awfully lot like pre-Johnny Jihad Europe in terms of gun violence. It’s all the Bureau of Justice stat database, which I’ve yet to come across one that even knows it exists….though all are cock sure that we’re just one more background check law or magazine limitation from nirvana. This is another interesting study on the relatively small networks behind most of the violent felonies in… Read more »
Severian
Guest
I’ve been saying for a long time that this is a great place for Big Pharma to think outside the box. Since Obamacare is here to stay, time to “syngerize” with the DSM-VI. Call it “ghetto affective disorder” and get a nice legal tranq for it. Everybody wins – the sob sisters get to keep saying “poverty causes crime;” the actual criminals keep getting high — in fact, too high to do anything else — and Big Pharma makes zillions. Pfizer, where are you on this? Some kind of fish paralyzer, scaled up for the modern urban crime environment…
gebrauschund
Guest

It would need an appealing name, with a catchy acronym, like…oh…I dunno, maybe Soothing Organic Meditation Augmentation.

Karl McHungus
Guest

you could call it “soma” or something

dave
Guest
I worked as a gun crime data analyst for the Durham NC PD for the last 13 years. Population 200k to 250+k. Did the analyses as in the article. We could just have scaled our data up and it would have been Bodymore. I have a friend who was the director of the Trauma Dept. (includes the ED) at Duke Med. Her take on homicides was that her docs were so good that they saved many victims. And yes, much violent crime was gang-on-gang. And EVERYBODY knew this, and it remained unaddressed. Durham is a black, lib run city.
Member

So Diversity isn’t our strength?

JohnTyler
Guest
Clearly, these black crime rates are the fault of Donald Trump, Global Warming, the Crusades, Christopher Columbus, capitalism, the legacy of slavery, George Bush I and II, Halliburton, imperialism, homophobia, discrimination against the LGBT community and against “full figured” females, white privilege, the Jews, Dick Cheney, conservatives, Christians, lack of open borders, institutional racism and, of course, lax gun laws (that allow criminals to have guns). Once we have a black president that serves two full terms, black US Attorney Generals, and many other blacks in positions of real power within the Federal Govt., then, and only then, will sky… Read more »
Karl McHungus
Guest

Zman, why do you live in Baltimore? Big Poe fan?

Sim1776
Guest

You should see the neighborhood where the Poe house is located…

Ryan
Guest

If Baltimore didn’t produce this sort of crime we would never have gotten The Wire. I’m pretty sure the trade off was worth it. Goddamn that was a good show.

Karl McHungus
Guest

almostt as good as “Homicide: Life on the Street”

Anonymous White Male
Guest
This is where I continually dismiss people as being a libtard. Cities like Baltimore, Detroit, Chicago, or fill-in-the-blank-city-with-large-populations-of-pavement-apeicus are the way they are due to blacks. However you want to slice it, it still boils down to this simple reality. Blacks know it. Hispanics know it. Everybody knows it. Even diversity libtards. The difference for libtards is their refusal to articulate said truth. Anyone capable of reason asks themselves: “Why?” Something so obvious and yet public policy can’t be changed to incorporate this fundamental truth. You can understand why blacks avoid addressing this or ook and eek about “racism” or… Read more »
james wilson
Guest

Everybody has a teeny amygdala. Not everybody has a big brain to interpret that information.

Glen Filthie
Guest
It’s the same old problem with a new twist. Our host is in the same pickle that Galileo found himself in during the Renaissance when he endorsed Capernicanism. The church knew full well that the earth and sun were not the centre of the universe; and that this did not square with the Holy Word. Galileo wasn’t imprisoned because he sought out truth; he was persecuted because he was going to spill the beans to the Dirt People before the Cloud People had a chance to spin the new facts. Can you imagine what would happen if those dirt digging… Read more »
Garr
Guest

Sympathy for observed individual exceptions. Same motivation as for easy divorce — some women really were horribly abused. Another example: public homosexual activity legalized because sometimes decently closeted homosexuals were wrongly victimized. So the general good is neglected in order to save the exceptions.

Member

150,000 arrests? That’s a quarter of the population arrested in five years!

JerryC
Guest

Of course they’re just arresting the same people over and over. The sainted Freddie Gray had already been arrested sonething like 25 times when he met his untimely demise in the back of a Baltimore PD paddy wagon.

Audacious Epigone
Guest

Baltimore falls pretty much in line with the national distributions on crime in general and murder in particular, except blacks are even more violent there than in the country as a whole.

One thing that’s sobering for middle Americans is how low clearance rates are for serious crimes, especially in urban areas. Half of murderers get away with it, and most get away with other violent crimes like battery and rape.

sirlancelot
Guest

” Giving them space to destroy ”

Even with this insanity the white liberals still defend the savages !

Back in the late eighties my town decided to clean the place up and lock up all the gangbangers.

Trouble was they all got out about the same time 10 years later and went back to the hood looking to reclaim their old turf.

The bullets were really flying that summer :-0

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