Crime City

Recently I was searching around for publicly available police data and found that a surprising amount of data is available to the public. Often it is very portable, letting the curious download raw data from government systems. Many cities have built out API’s so you can get live feeds from their systems. I found a treasure trove of raw arrest data from the City of Baltimore. Like a lot of cities, they have exposed their database of arrests to the public. The data only goes back to the beginning of 2013, but that’s a lot.

Since the first of day of 2013, Baltimore City police have made 152,103 arrests as of September 30th, 2017. That works out to an average of 87 arrests per day. That does not sound like a big number, but according to studies, the average time awaiting trial is close to 40 days. The number of people being held in the city awaiting trial is about 8,000, on average. Put another way, about 1.3% of the city’s population is held at any one time, awaiting their turn in the criminal justice system. That does not included convicts.

Just in case you are thinking about being arrested in Baltimore, here’s the daily breakout.

Of course, the break down by race is what you would expect in Baltimore.

Interestingly, there were only 1428 arrests for murder and attempted murder. They don’t code the crimes in an easily understood way. I simply searched for all arrests containing the word murder, which included attempted murder. Netting out the lesser charge and the total is just 252 arrests for the crime of murder. In the same period, 1382 homicides were committed in the city.  It appears arrests for attempted murder is where they start with murder cases. That or the murder total would be much higher if the locals had better aim.

Here’s the racial break down of murder related arrests.

The black share of arrests for murder related offenses should be viewed in addition to two other statistics. Baltimore is 63% black according to the last census and 29% white. This means that blacks are over represented in the arrest data for murder related crime. Whites are under represented. It should be noted that Hispanics are counted as white, but the city has a small Hispanic population. Even so, whites are significantly under represented. This is a pattern that turns up in all homicide studies, even in majority black cities.

The other factor is the victimization data. Murder is almost always a personal crime so the murderer usually knows the victim or they live in the same area. Even in a city like Baltimore, where one block can seem like a different country from the next block, most violent crime is personal. That means most times, the murderer is of the same race as the murdered. Looking at the victimization data, the number of black murder victims over the same period tracks the arrest pattern, as far as the racial breakdown.

Here is the racial break down of the murder victims.

The victim numbers let us net out the Hispanics from the white total, but Baltimore does not have a big Latino population, so the numbers don’t change much. Given the white flight to the suburbs, the city’s white population is probably closer to 25% in this time period, but the white crime share is around 5%. On the other hand, Blacks are 65% of the city’s population and 90% of homicide related crime and over 80% of all arrests. Put another way, if you removed the black population, Baltimore would resemble Salt Lake City.

Finally, here are the arrests by age.

Here’s the arrests by interesting cohort.

67 thoughts on “Crime City

    • They hate us, but they need us, which makes them hate us more. The relationship between white America and black America is sort of like that between an ageing parent and their grown son living at home who’s a drug-addict, the kind who will insult you while rummaging through your wallet.

      • Even worse: an eighteen year old being raised by grandparents because mom got knocked up by a nigger and is now out running around or in prison. The poor grandparents don’t do any better raising the grandson than they did his mother, in fact worse because they have even been more indulgent when he was young than they were with her. Many of these old folks end up dead. Can’t say they don’t deserve it, though.

  1. Surprising the number of people arrested in their 30s, 40s, even 50s????

    I understand being an asshole at 22…….but FIFTY??????!!!! Whatsamatter with you?

    • Go look at the homicide stats on The biggest, most dangerous men are the ones who got busted, yo. Served their time and came out a soulja, yo. Gonna run my own crew now, yo. Maybe they got busted twice or more and served time on each one of them. We’re talking about big mean older sumbitches with tats and scar tissue all over their bodies who are experienced, ruthless, violent, desensitized predators.

      And instead of using their age and patrician experience to show younger men the ropes and provide a good role model…. well…. actually, that’s EXACTLY what they’re doing. Hood rat culture has a different definition of ‘good.’

    • A lot of these people are addicts and this shows why the Reason Magazine wing of libertarianism (needles in the arms, dicks in the ass) is a lost cause. Even if you were to make simple possession a ticket-only offense, withdrawal from heroin is so agonizing that people will do anything to get it. The difference between an addict struggling with their “disease” and someone busting your window (or your head) with a tire iron is a couple of hours of withdrawal.

      • Withdrawal from heroin is not agonizing. That’s a myth popularized through a Sinatra movie in the 50’s. Withdrawal is a drag, the loss of your best and only friend. Speed is the pits. Any junkie experienced in both will tell you the same thing. Given a reliable supply, it is possible to live a long and productive life on heroin. Speed is ruthless.

        • I’m familiar with “The Man with the Golden Arm.” It’s based on a Nelson Algren book. I’ve known several junkies and still know some, and while Suboxone is effective (more effective than methadone) it’s incredibly expensive and junkies don’t like jumping through all those hoops to get it. If you don’t think people are involved in robberies (and violent ones) on a daily basis, in order to get heroin, you’re delusional. Meth is harder to kick, but it also brings dangers from cooking (like explosions and water table contamination) that you don’t get with heroin.

          • Meth people are nuts. One of my cousins is a farm manager in the rural Midwest. They lease/own about 20k acres, mostly consolidated former family farms with a lot of abandoned buildings on the properties. He finally started carrying a pistol + a truck gun after surprising a couple of “cooks” that had set up for the weekend in old barns. Good way to get killed when its just you, them and the sheriff that might be 30 minutes away.

          • I know an FBI agent who used to work the meth labs in the Midwest. He has some wild stores. The biggest issue is them blowing themselves up. The mobile labs were a problem for while. Today though, about 90% of all meth is cooked in a few giant labs in Mexico. We could, if we wanted, shutdown the meth supply by taking out those labs using precision guided weapons. The subsequent explosions and toxic waste would kill a lot of Mexicans though.

          • i know where you can get all the replacement mexicans you could wish for — cheap!

          • remember that guy that stole a tank in San Diego, and was driving around flattening cars? meth head.

          • Meth is close to impossible to kick. The success rate is 12% according to recent studies. For those who do manage to kick it, life is a joyless trudge to the graveyard. The drug appears to destroy the parts of the brain that control emotions.

          • If you see someone who looks below normal body weight with browning teeth you are looking at a meth addict.

          • My wife (pediatrician) introduced me to a description I had never heard before: “meh-mou” (i.e. meth mouth…but the users can’t actually say it due to their dental loss)

            Not just brown teeth, but horrific and missing teeth, combined with low body weight and other signs.

          • But the interesting thing is that you can’t overdose on meth. It does age your body at an alarming rate

          • I don’t have a link to anything, but I’ve never seen anyone die of a meth overdose, and I don’t know what a lethal dose would be. Opioids kill by suppressing the respiratory centers. The problems with meth are caused by end organ damage caused by sympathetic nervous system overstimulation or vasospasm. So you get heart attacks, strokes, renal insufficiency, rotten teeth, urinary retention, etc. Most of these things do a lot of damage and some can kill in a secondary way, but meth itself wouldn’t be the direct cause of death, and most people survive them, despite the subsequent handicaps.

          • If that is true, it is the worst thing I have heard all day. “A joyless trudge to the graveyard”.

            Sounds like a plan for the social engineers to me.

    • @jay dee….
      Yeah what’s with that downward slope between 28-40?? Must be incarceration. Then the rounded descent after 50. Must be maturity kicking in and they’re weary of the system??

  2. On the internet you can get a live feed of the police radio dispatch in cities like Detroit and Chicago. Chimpouts.

  3. The Washington Post has built a database on fatal police shootings each year:

    Now, if you watch these NFL “kneelers” protesting police killings and police brutality, and if you listen to Liberal media, what would you estimate the 2017 totals are so far?

    Total fatal incidents involving police in 2017: 768

    Percent black: 20%
    Appx: 154

    Of that, how many are actually controversial in some way? If BLM riots are the gauge…less than 10.

    Considering ZMan’s data/charts, we don’t have a police killings problem – at all – in this country. It happens, yes, but hardly a problem. If you read some of the Lefty rhetoric, you would think the police are using black men as target practice.

  4. This is the great thing about being a race-realist/ being on the dissident right. When quantitative analysis is staring you in the face, you only need to be as numerate as a first grader to see why the left and progressives are full of shit. You can’t argue with this data any more than you can argue with surveillance footage of a robbery-in-progress. The age graph tallies with what Edward Bunker said in his books and movies about his own life of crime, that it’s generally a young man’s game. This is another reason “demographic winter” in Europe is a powder-keg. The Davos/EU elite believe that Turks who sucker-punch ambulatory Germans are somehow eager to care for them in hospice in their twilight years, pushing them around in wheelchairs.Something worth keeping in mind: as more “diversity” makes its way from the south to the north, things are going to get much worse. The same black people whom whites fear and hate are scared shitless of the alien Salvadorans with their faces tattooed. Compton, California went from being the home of James Coburn, to the home of Ice Cube, to the home of Marcos & Javier in a pretty short period of time, thanks to stupid social and immigration policy. Burn in hell, Emanuel Cellar (I would mention Teddy Kennedy, but he’s burning for crimes unrelated to immigration).

  5. This reality has been known for decades, and both elected officials and government administrators are fully aware of this disparity. None will speak up because that is a career-ender, and consequently this problem will never be confronted nor remediated. The only rational conclusion to draw from this impasse is that the black community will forever be condemned to live in fear and violence in most urban communities. They would be wise to flee these cities and resettle in smaller rural towns, but that’s not going to happen because the welfare addiction is designed to keep them in place and voting for the corrupt political class.

    • that and the fact that they would be bringing all the pathology from the ghetto to their new homes. negroes *are* the disease.

    • So tell me, what kind of work is available for people with IQ’s in the high double digits that is supervised enough for people with weaker impulse control and yet remunerative enough that a man can raise a family with a measure of dignity and economic participation ?

      Broken families are a big part of the family but economics, automation and trade are the rest . Its also why White in the Rust Belt have so many pathologies. No hope for a future

      Now White communities can be safer but a nation wide Appalachia which still has 50% greater homicide rate per capita than anywhere in Europe and 75% US average “crime” rate is nothing to aspire too.

      Civilization costs money, it demands good jobs as the Bible puts it “Not muzzling the Ox that treadeth the corn” and we are failing to do this, growing the State and all in a milieu with declining religion and family stability

      We are just asking for some version of Antifa that comes down the line to be smashing spergy techie skulls with tire shocks all the while wearing non ironic Pol Pot T Shirts

      Frankly the elite probably will deserve it too.

  6. The role of the welfare queen in perpetuating these statistics cannot be ignored. Married to Uncle Sam, the actual men in her life are drones that exist to serve these narcissistic four-hundred pound queen bees, most as a cheap source of insemination, quickly discarded after the next meal ticket is conceived. The sons are taught to steal early on and hand over the spoils to the monster that birthed them. There’s safety in numbers, something gang membership provides when the “mother” sends them out to rob and steal. Girls are socially isolated as well and have only the example of the “mother” to follow. Parenting skills consist of verbal and physical abuse, instilling hatred of law enforcement and western civilization in general at an early age, rendering said offspring incompatible with life in western culture.

    Utah is emerging as the new utopian paradigm. The means to making that dream a reality is unfolding as the pushback to the insanity of organizations like BLM incubates.

  7. Personal favorite has always been this.. One point always like to bring up with Progs is that, in general, once you remove the 14-34 AA cohort in the top twenty metros, the US looks an awfully lot like pre-Johnny Jihad Europe in terms of gun violence. It’s all the Bureau of Justice stat database, which I’ve yet to come across one that even knows it exists….though all are cock sure that we’re just one more background check law or magazine limitation from nirvana. This is another interesting study on the relatively small networks behind most of the violent felonies in Chicago This was effectively Giuliani’s strategy with Compstat. Flood problem areas with cops and break up the small networks of violent thugs. He had one advantage in that prosecutors in NY, unlike most big cities were willing to take a tough stance on gangbangers carrying illegal weapons–stay at Rikers to trial and if guilty, it’s Upstate for several years. Raised the price of carrying a gat. Place like Chicago have been “catch (if) and release” for years. Progressives don’t want to confront this pathology in their key demographic so will go to any end to craft laws that target some law abiding white guy who happens to like to hunt and shoot in 3-gun competitions.

  8. I’ve been saying for a long time that this is a great place for Big Pharma to think outside the box. Since Obamacare is here to stay, time to “syngerize” with the DSM-VI. Call it “ghetto affective disorder” and get a nice legal tranq for it. Everybody wins – the sob sisters get to keep saying “poverty causes crime;” the actual criminals keep getting high — in fact, too high to do anything else — and Big Pharma makes zillions. Pfizer, where are you on this? Some kind of fish paralyzer, scaled up for the modern urban crime environment…

    • Testosterone levels are higher in black males, compared to non-black males, from the onset of puberty into the onset of middle age. It may be why black crime rates start to fall dramatically in the 30-year old range. Therefore a way to reduce testosterone levels in black males from 15-30 would be a good starting point. A soy diet perhaps. of course, the current religious climate makes such talk impossible.

      I am looking at some other data sets with an eye on coming at this from another angle.

      • Either way, better living through chemistry. I remember the “CIA invented crack to keep tha brothas down!” hysteria in the late 80s… specifically, I remember thinking that it was a good idea, implemented with typical government competence. You’d probably have to engineer some kind of “criminal” element to it, just to keep some drama (and some cops employed), but if we can get ourselves an opioid epidemic among rural whites, a “SOMA epidemic” in the inner city should be easy to arrange with the same basic mechanism

      • The warrior gene in combination with horrifically abusive childhood abuse I think explains most of it. These black women run the show and are almost satantically physically abusive with boys, that they can’t control because there is no pops around. The abuse triggers the genetics essentially, giving expression to the world being a violent place and therefore you must be brutally sociopathic to survive. Helpful when fighting the neighboring tribe in the dark ages. Not so great for modern civilization.

        • Normal whites simply have no idea what normal domestic life is like for normal blacks, much less for those on the reservation. That is why it is so amusing to see the contortions which the NFL, and MLB for that matter, go through when they get a whiff of it. The only human to throw 106 mph gets pissed at his pissy girlfriend and shoots up his own house–not the girlfrend, Domestic Abuse! Ray Lewis, after much taunting, gave his woman exactly what she had in mind–a reaffirmation of his commitment to her. The irony is that the NFL proceeded to cost her many millions of dollars.

        • Jackasses like Cassius Clay and Lew Alcindor decide in the late 60s/early 70s to re-brand themselves with Arabic names, to stick it to the white man.

          Of course it only confirmed our suspicion they are/were idiots.

          Any practical Arab of the last twelve hundred years regarded a fit negro as a a thing to be seized and sold. It was a pasty-faced silly white man from England who fought to end this sort of activity (backed by the only Navy that mattered at the time, a honkie navy).

      • Maybe black crime rates drop off in the 30-year old range because so many male blacks get murdered before they hit 30.

        • Peter Frost, I think, has argued that the indiscriminate use of the death penalty in Europe, particularly England, had the eugenic effect of reducing violence in the gene pool. By hanging so many criminals, the population of male criminals, of reproductive age, was reduced. Over time, this reduced the number of male criminals in the population.

          My guess with blacks is that it is not so much the culling, but the incarceration rates. The black males prone to violence end up doing long stretches in the penitentiary. Still, the black males who remain outside of the system become less violent over time. The “reformed hoodlum” is a stereotype in the black community for a reason.

          • Aaaand there’s your soma distribution channel. Tranq out the inmates — for their mental health, of course — and let it filter out onto the street. Just like you can now get “PTSD” from people saying mean things about you on the internet, so Ghetto Affective Disorder, once an exotic malady among prisoners, is now rampant in the inner cities, because White Privilege. Free Soma is a human right!!

          • Your comment is massively micro-aggessive !!
            (Wouldn’t that be a macro-aggression or giga-aggression?)
            I must now retreat to my safe space (the local pet shop) and pet some puppy dogs and kittens.

          • Not sure I’d describe it as indiscriminate, but I get the idea. The Chinese were ruthlessly discriminate about execution for a long time which is why they are so conformist and yet also lacking in the stupid. Black Americans, to one degree and another, did undergo a culling. We see the result distributed unevenly.

          • If his postulation is correct – then WW1 and WW2 should have had an exponentially more significant effect on the white male capacity for crime.

            It’s not the 4F types that get sucked into the army – stuck in a trench , and then bombed, gassed, machine gunned – and bayoneted into the grave. It’s exactly the high testosterone alpha male types that militaries most want in their ranks.

            When you kill off a few million of them in two big spasms just one generation or so apart – it absolutely has to have a negative effect on the overall capacity of the civilization to procreate itself – as well as the crime rate.

            I’m sure the death penalty effect pales in comparison to the male bodies killed by the millions effect.

        • That makes a lot of sense considering if you do 20-years, you get out at 40-50 years old, at which point the crime rates start to spike again in the charts.

      • RE: “Testosterone levels are higher in black males”

        Not according to this study:

        Conclusions: Contrary to the postulated racial difference, testosterone concentrations did not differ notably between black and white men. However, blacks had higher estradiol levels. Mexican-Americans had higher testosterone than whites but similar estradiol and SHBG concentrations. Given these findings, it may be equally if not more important to investigate estradiol as testosterone in relation to diseases with racial disparity.

    • It would need an appealing name, with a catchy acronym, like…oh…I dunno, maybe Soothing Organic Meditation Augmentation.

  9. I worked as a gun crime data analyst for the Durham NC PD for the last 13 years. Population 200k to 250+k. Did the analyses as in the article. We could just have scaled our data up and it would have been Bodymore.

    I have a friend who was the director of the Trauma Dept. (includes the ED) at Duke Med. Her take on homicides was that her docs were so good that they saved many victims.

    And yes, much violent crime was gang-on-gang. And EVERYBODY knew this, and it remained unaddressed. Durham is a black, lib run city.

  10. Clearly, these black crime rates are the fault of Donald Trump, Global Warming, the Crusades, Christopher Columbus, capitalism, the legacy of slavery, George Bush I and II, Halliburton, imperialism, homophobia, discrimination against the LGBT community and against “full figured” females, white privilege, the Jews, Dick Cheney, conservatives, Christians, lack of open borders, institutional racism and, of course, lax gun laws (that allow criminals to have guns).
    Once we have a black president that serves two full terms, black US Attorney Generals, and many other blacks in positions of real power within the Federal Govt., then, and only then, will sky hi crime rates become , once again, a “white” thing and peace and love will be the norm within black inner cities.
    Any idiot realizes this.

  11. If Baltimore didn’t produce this sort of crime we would never have gotten The Wire. I’m pretty sure the trade off was worth it. Goddamn that was a good show.

  12. This is where I continually dismiss people as being a libtard. Cities like Baltimore, Detroit, Chicago, or fill-in-the-blank-city-with-large-populations-of-pavement-apeicus are the way they are due to blacks. However you want to slice it, it still boils down to this simple reality. Blacks know it. Hispanics know it. Everybody knows it. Even diversity libtards. The difference for libtards is their refusal to articulate said truth. Anyone capable of reason asks themselves: “Why?” Something so obvious and yet public policy can’t be changed to incorporate this fundamental truth. You can understand why blacks avoid addressing this or ook and eek about “racism” or “hatred” to avoid anything being done to stop the gravy train. But, who cares what blacks do? They only consist of 12 to 13% of the US population, so they really have little say in the political process nationally or in non-jungle areas. No, it is the Whites on the left that have enabled all the monkey shines over the last 75 years. You could forgive them if by the end of the 70’s they said, “Well, I guess we were wrong. Forget that! Let’s start over and try something different and not repeat any of the mistakes that occurred.” So, how could anyone be so stupid? I know the leaders of the left know exactly what they are doing. But, their foot soldiers are all of the genus dummuss maximus. The oft-quoted definition of insanity comes to mind. Again, what prevents them from acknowledging to THEMSELVES that they were and are wrong? I know that a large percentage of the left are young and have not achieved wisdom. However, even the most naive has to be disturbed about promoting a race that is toxic wherever they live. Which reminds me, even Superman has his doubts.

    Is it, as Anonymous Conservative promotes, strictly a biological process of shielding the amygdala from harm? Or, is it that they have watched these things occur, internalized them, and then just ignore the results because they are too well-meaning and well-mannered to hurt da po’ negroes’ feewins? Since I can’t lie to myself, I don’t understand how anyone else can. Anybody else share my confusion?

    • Everybody has a teeny amygdala. Not everybody has a big brain to interpret that information.

    • It’s the same old problem with a new twist.

      Our host is in the same pickle that Galileo found himself in during the Renaissance when he endorsed Capernicanism. The church knew full well that the earth and sun were not the centre of the universe; and that this did not square with the Holy Word. Galileo wasn’t imprisoned because he sought out truth; he was persecuted because he was going to spill the beans to the Dirt People before the Cloud People had a chance to spin the new facts. Can you imagine what would happen if those dirt digging morons came to doubt their Bible?

      So here we are today. What DO we do, Whitey, with a demographic that is largely illiterate, illegitimate and uneducable? This is a demographic that votes, by the way, and empowers the democrat/poverty complex. We can’t enslave them or command them. But nor will they work, learn or behave.

      When the ignoratti starts questioning its bible, and their leaders that preach by it, war and hell usually follow. The stuff Z is playing with is pure hellfire – what we are looking at, gentlemen, is a real and valid pretext for race war, and no bones about it.

      Far better to belive the pretty lies, and pretend the world is a better place for as long as possible, I suppose.

    • Sympathy for observed individual exceptions. Same motivation as for easy divorce — some women really were horribly abused. Another example: public homosexual activity legalized because sometimes decently closeted homosexuals were wrongly victimized. So the general good is neglected in order to save the exceptions.

    • Of course they’re just arresting the same people over and over. The sainted Freddie Gray had already been arrested sonething like 25 times when he met his untimely demise in the back of a Baltimore PD paddy wagon.

  13. Baltimore falls pretty much in line with the national distributions on crime in general and murder in particular, except blacks are even more violent there than in the country as a whole.

    One thing that’s sobering for middle Americans is how low clearance rates are for serious crimes, especially in urban areas. Half of murderers get away with it, and most get away with other violent crimes like battery and rape.

  14. ” Giving them space to destroy ”

    Even with this insanity the white liberals still defend the savages !

    Back in the late eighties my town decided to clean the place up and lock up all the gangbangers.

    Trouble was they all got out about the same time 10 years later and went back to the hood looking to reclaim their old turf.

    The bullets were really flying that summer :-0

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