Crime City

Recently I was searching around for publicly available police data and found that a surprising amount of data is available to the public. Often it is very portable, letting the curious download raw data from government systems. Many cities have built out API’s so you can get live feeds from their systems. I found a treasure trove of raw arrest data from the City of Baltimore. Like a lot of cities, they have exposed their database of arrests to the public. The data only goes back to the beginning of 2013, but that’s a lot.

Since the first of day of 2013, Baltimore City police have made 152,103 arrests as of September 30th, 2017. That works out to an average of 87 arrests per day. That does not sound like a big number, but according to studies, the average time awaiting trial is close to 40 days. The number of people being held in the city awaiting trial is about 8,000, on average. Put another way, about 1.3% of the city’s population is held at any one time, awaiting their turn in the criminal justice system. That does not included convicts.

Just in case you are thinking about being arrested in Baltimore, here’s the daily breakout.

Of course, the break down by race is what you would expect in Baltimore.

Interestingly, there were only 1428 arrests for murder and attempted murder. They don’t code the crimes in an easily understood way. I simply searched for all arrests containing the word murder, which included attempted murder. Netting out the lesser charge and the total is just 252 arrests for the crime of murder. In the same period, 1382 homicides were committed in the city.  It appears arrests for attempted murder is where they start with murder cases. That or the murder total would be much higher if the locals had better aim.

Here’s the racial break down of murder related arrests.

The black share of arrests for murder related offenses should be viewed in addition to two other statistics. Baltimore is 63% black according to the last census and 29% white. This means that blacks are over represented in the arrest data for murder related crime. Whites are under represented. It should be noted that Hispanics are counted as white, but the city has a small Hispanic population. Even so, whites are significantly under represented. This is a pattern that turns up in all homicide studies, even in majority black cities.

The other factor is the victimization data. Murder is almost always a personal crime so the murderer usually knows the victim or they live in the same area. Even in a city like Baltimore, where one block can seem like a different country from the next block, most violent crime is personal. That means most times, the murderer is of the same race as the murdered. Looking at the victimization data, the number of black murder victims over the same period tracks the arrest pattern, as far as the racial breakdown.

Here is the racial break down of the murder victims.

The victim numbers let us net out the Hispanics from the white total, but Baltimore does not have a big Latino population, so the numbers don’t change much. Given the white flight to the suburbs, the city’s white population is probably closer to 25% in this time period, but the white crime share is around 5%. On the other hand, Blacks are 65% of the city’s population and 90% of homicide related crime and over 80% of all arrests. Put another way, if you removed the black population, Baltimore would resemble Salt Lake City.

Finally, here are the arrests by age.

Here’s the arrests by interesting cohort.

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Dan Kurt
Dan Kurt
Member
3 years ago

Where is the new Marcus Garvey to send them all back to Africa?

Dan Kurt

Joey Junger
Joey Junger
Reply to  Dan Kurt
3 years ago

They hate us, but they need us, which makes them hate us more. The relationship between white America and black America is sort of like that between an ageing parent and their grown son living at home who’s a drug-addict, the kind who will insult you while rummaging through your wallet.

Teapartydoc
Member
Reply to  Joey Junger
3 years ago

Even worse: an eighteen year old being raised by grandparents because mom got knocked up by a nigger and is now out running around or in prison. The poor grandparents don’t do any better raising the grandson than they did his mother, in fact worse because they have even been more indulgent when he was young than they were with her. Many of these old folks end up dead. Can’t say they don’t deserve it, though.

jay dee
3 years ago

Surprising the number of people arrested in their 30s, 40s, even 50s????

I understand being an asshole at 22…….but FIFTY??????!!!! Whatsamatter with you?

Phil Ossiferz Stone
Phil Ossiferz Stone
Reply to  jay dee
3 years ago

Go look at the homicide stats on FBI.gov. The biggest, most dangerous men are the ones who got busted, yo. Served their time and came out a soulja, yo. Gonna run my own crew now, yo. Maybe they got busted twice or more and served time on each one of them. We’re talking about big mean older sumbitches with tats and scar tissue all over their bodies who are experienced, ruthless, violent, desensitized predators. And instead of using their age and patrician experience to show younger men the ropes and provide a good role model…. well…. actually, that’s EXACTLY what… Read more »

Brianguy
Brianguy
Reply to  Phil Ossiferz Stone
3 years ago

Hood rats with loose sphincters.
I had to go there…

Joey Junger
Joey Junger
Reply to  jay dee
3 years ago

A lot of these people are addicts and this shows why the Reason Magazine wing of libertarianism (needles in the arms, dicks in the ass) is a lost cause. Even if you were to make simple possession a ticket-only offense, withdrawal from heroin is so agonizing that people will do anything to get it. The difference between an addict struggling with their “disease” and someone busting your window (or your head) with a tire iron is a couple of hours of withdrawal.

james wilson
james wilson
Reply to  Joey Junger
3 years ago

Withdrawal from heroin is not agonizing. That’s a myth popularized through a Sinatra movie in the 50’s. Withdrawal is a drag, the loss of your best and only friend. Speed is the pits. Any junkie experienced in both will tell you the same thing. Given a reliable supply, it is possible to live a long and productive life on heroin. Speed is ruthless.

Joey Junger
Joey Junger
Reply to  james wilson
3 years ago

I’m familiar with “The Man with the Golden Arm.” It’s based on a Nelson Algren book. I’ve known several junkies and still know some, and while Suboxone is effective (more effective than methadone) it’s incredibly expensive and junkies don’t like jumping through all those hoops to get it. If you don’t think people are involved in robberies (and violent ones) on a daily basis, in order to get heroin, you’re delusional. Meth is harder to kick, but it also brings dangers from cooking (like explosions and water table contamination) that you don’t get with heroin.

Saml Adams
Saml Adams
Reply to  Joey Junger
3 years ago

Meth people are nuts. One of my cousins is a farm manager in the rural Midwest. They lease/own about 20k acres, mostly consolidated former family farms with a lot of abandoned buildings on the properties. He finally started carrying a pistol + a truck gun after surprising a couple of “cooks” that had set up for the weekend in old barns. Good way to get killed when its just you, them and the sheriff that might be 30 minutes away.

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

i know where you can get all the replacement mexicans you could wish for — cheap!

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  Saml Adams
3 years ago

remember that guy that stole a tank in San Diego, and was driving around flattening cars? meth head.

Teapartydoc
Member
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

If you see someone who looks below normal body weight with browning teeth you are looking at a meth addict.

Old Surfer
Old Surfer
Reply to  Teapartydoc
3 years ago

Or a really heavy coffee drinker….

Member
Reply to  Teapartydoc
3 years ago

My wife (pediatrician) introduced me to a description I had never heard before: “meh-mou” (i.e. meth mouth…but the users can’t actually say it due to their dental loss)

Not just brown teeth, but horrific and missing teeth, combined with low body weight and other signs.

notsothoreau
notsothoreau
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

But the interesting thing is that you can’t overdose on meth. It does age your body at an alarming rate

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  notsothoreau
3 years ago

please provide a url for that statement, because it looks very wrong.

Teapartydoc
Member
Reply to  Karl McHungus
3 years ago

I don’t have a link to anything, but I’ve never seen anyone die of a meth overdose, and I don’t know what a lethal dose would be. Opioids kill by suppressing the respiratory centers. The problems with meth are caused by end organ damage caused by sympathetic nervous system overstimulation or vasospasm. So you get heart attacks, strokes, renal insufficiency, rotten teeth, urinary retention, etc. Most of these things do a lot of damage and some can kill in a secondary way, but meth itself wouldn’t be the direct cause of death, and most people survive them, despite the subsequent… Read more »

Member
Reply to  Teapartydoc
3 years ago

https://www.drugabuse.gov/related-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates

It’s less than some (like opioids), but still growing dramatically.

YIH
YIH
Reply to  notsothoreau
3 years ago

Not really, I’m not sure what the toxic (OD) dose is, but what meth does is it ‘overdrives’ the metabolism. Like running an engine past ‘redline’ for an extended period of time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methamphetamine#Overdose

Pimpkin\'s nephew
Pimpkin\'s nephew
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

If that is true, it is the worst thing I have heard all day. “A joyless trudge to the graveyard”.

Sounds like a plan for the social engineers to me.

Brianguy
Brianguy
Reply to  jay dee
3 years ago

@jay dee….
Yeah what’s with that downward slope between 28-40?? Must be incarceration. Then the rounded descent after 50. Must be maturity kicking in and they’re weary of the system??

Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell
3 years ago

On the internet you can get a live feed of the police radio dispatch in cities like Detroit and Chicago. Chimpouts.

Member
3 years ago

The Washington Post has built a database on fatal police shootings each year: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/police-shootings-2017/ Now, if you watch these NFL “kneelers” protesting police killings and police brutality, and if you listen to Liberal media, what would you estimate the 2017 totals are so far? Total fatal incidents involving police in 2017: 768 Percent black: 20% Appx: 154 Of that, how many are actually controversial in some way? If BLM riots are the gauge…less than 10. Considering ZMan’s data/charts, we don’t have a police killings problem – at all – in this country. It happens, yes, but hardly a problem. If… Read more »

Joey Junger
Joey Junger
3 years ago

This is the great thing about being a race-realist/ being on the dissident right. When quantitative analysis is staring you in the face, you only need to be as numerate as a first grader to see why the left and progressives are full of shit. You can’t argue with this data any more than you can argue with surveillance footage of a robbery-in-progress. The age graph tallies with what Edward Bunker said in his books and movies about his own life of crime, that it’s generally a young man’s game. This is another reason “demographic winter” in Europe is a… Read more »

TomA
TomA
3 years ago

This reality has been known for decades, and both elected officials and government administrators are fully aware of this disparity. None will speak up because that is a career-ender, and consequently this problem will never be confronted nor remediated. The only rational conclusion to draw from this impasse is that the black community will forever be condemned to live in fear and violence in most urban communities. They would be wise to flee these cities and resettle in smaller rural towns, but that’s not going to happen because the welfare addiction is designed to keep them in place and voting… Read more »

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  TomA
3 years ago

that and the fact that they would be bringing all the pathology from the ghetto to their new homes. negroes *are* the disease.

A.B. Prosper
A.B. Prosper
Reply to  TomA
3 years ago

So tell me, what kind of work is available for people with IQ’s in the high double digits that is supervised enough for people with weaker impulse control and yet remunerative enough that a man can raise a family with a measure of dignity and economic participation ? Broken families are a big part of the family but economics, automation and trade are the rest . Its also why White in the Rust Belt have so many pathologies. No hope for a future Now White communities can be safer but a nation wide Appalachia which still has 50% greater homicide… Read more »

Eclectic Esoteric
Eclectic Esoteric
3 years ago

The role of the welfare queen in perpetuating these statistics cannot be ignored. Married to Uncle Sam, the actual men in her life are drones that exist to serve these narcissistic four-hundred pound queen bees, most as a cheap source of insemination, quickly discarded after the next meal ticket is conceived. The sons are taught to steal early on and hand over the spoils to the monster that birthed them. There’s safety in numbers, something gang membership provides when the “mother” sends them out to rob and steal. Girls are socially isolated as well and have only the example of… Read more »

Reluctantreactionary
Reply to  Eclectic Esoteric
3 years ago

I was in downtown Salt Lake City last year. Utah is starting to get pozzed too. The LDS church has embraced diversity to some extent.

Saml Adams
Saml Adams
3 years ago

Personal favorite has always been this..http://heyjackass.com One point always like to bring up with Progs is that, in general, once you remove the 14-34 AA cohort in the top twenty metros, the US looks an awfully lot like pre-Johnny Jihad Europe in terms of gun violence. It’s all the Bureau of Justice stat database, which I’ve yet to come across one that even knows it exists….though all are cock sure that we’re just one more background check law or magazine limitation from nirvana. This is another interesting study on the relatively small networks behind most of the violent felonies in… Read more »

Severian
3 years ago

I’ve been saying for a long time that this is a great place for Big Pharma to think outside the box. Since Obamacare is here to stay, time to “syngerize” with the DSM-VI. Call it “ghetto affective disorder” and get a nice legal tranq for it. Everybody wins – the sob sisters get to keep saying “poverty causes crime;” the actual criminals keep getting high — in fact, too high to do anything else — and Big Pharma makes zillions. Pfizer, where are you on this? Some kind of fish paralyzer, scaled up for the modern urban crime environment…

Severian
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

Either way, better living through chemistry. I remember the “CIA invented crack to keep tha brothas down!” hysteria in the late 80s… specifically, I remember thinking that it was a good idea, implemented with typical government competence. You’d probably have to engineer some kind of “criminal” element to it, just to keep some drama (and some cops employed), but if we can get ourselves an opioid epidemic among rural whites, a “SOMA epidemic” in the inner city should be easy to arrange with the same basic mechanism

De Ferrers
De Ferrers
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

The warrior gene in combination with horrifically abusive childhood abuse I think explains most of it. These black women run the show and are almost satantically physically abusive with boys, that they can’t control because there is no pops around. The abuse triggers the genetics essentially, giving expression to the world being a violent place and therefore you must be brutally sociopathic to survive. Helpful when fighting the neighboring tribe in the dark ages. Not so great for modern civilization.

james wilson
james wilson
Reply to  De Ferrers
3 years ago

Normal whites simply have no idea what normal domestic life is like for normal blacks, much less for those on the reservation. That is why it is so amusing to see the contortions which the NFL, and MLB for that matter, go through when they get a whiff of it. The only human to throw 106 mph gets pissed at his pissy girlfriend and shoots up his own house–not the girlfrend, Domestic Abuse! Ray Lewis, after much taunting, gave his woman exactly what she had in mind–a reaffirmation of his commitment to her. The irony is that the NFL proceeded… Read more »

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

the arabs had a sure fire way of settling black males down, for good.

Pimpkin\'s nephew
Pimpkin\'s nephew
Reply to  Karl McHungus
3 years ago

Jackasses like Cassius Clay and Lew Alcindor decide in the late 60s/early 70s to re-brand themselves with Arabic names, to stick it to the white man.

Of course it only confirmed our suspicion they are/were idiots.

Any practical Arab of the last twelve hundred years regarded a fit negro as a a thing to be seized and sold. It was a pasty-faced silly white man from England who fought to end this sort of activity (backed by the only Navy that mattered at the time, a honkie navy).

JohnTyler
JohnTyler
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

Maybe black crime rates drop off in the 30-year old range because so many male blacks get murdered before they hit 30.

Severian
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

Aaaand there’s your soma distribution channel. Tranq out the inmates — for their mental health, of course — and let it filter out onto the street. Just like you can now get “PTSD” from people saying mean things about you on the internet, so Ghetto Affective Disorder, once an exotic malady among prisoners, is now rampant in the inner cities, because White Privilege. Free Soma is a human right!!

JohnTyler
JohnTyler
Reply to  Severian
3 years ago

Your comment is massively micro-aggessive !!
(Wouldn’t that be a macro-aggression or giga-aggression?)
I must now retreat to my safe space (the local pet shop) and pet some puppy dogs and kittens.

james wilson
james wilson
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

Not sure I’d describe it as indiscriminate, but I get the idea. The Chinese were ruthlessly discriminate about execution for a long time which is why they are so conformist and yet also lacking in the stupid. Black Americans, to one degree and another, did undergo a culling. We see the result distributed unevenly.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

If his postulation is correct – then WW1 and WW2 should have had an exponentially more significant effect on the white male capacity for crime. It’s not the 4F types that get sucked into the army – stuck in a trench , and then bombed, gassed, machine gunned – and bayoneted into the grave. It’s exactly the high testosterone alpha male types that militaries most want in their ranks. When you kill off a few million of them in two big spasms just one generation or so apart – it absolutely has to have a negative effect on the overall… Read more »

Member
Reply to  JohnTyler
3 years ago

That makes a lot of sense considering if you do 20-years, you get out at 40-50 years old, at which point the crime rates start to spike again in the charts.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

RE: “Testosterone levels are higher in black males”

Not according to this study:

https://academic.oup.com/jcem/article/92/7/2519/2598282/Serum-Estrogen-But-Not-Testosterone-Levels-Differ

Conclusions: Contrary to the postulated racial difference, testosterone concentrations did not differ notably between black and white men. However, blacks had higher estradiol levels. Mexican-Americans had higher testosterone than whites but similar estradiol and SHBG concentrations. Given these findings, it may be equally if not more important to investigate estradiol as testosterone in relation to diseases with racial disparity.

gebrauschund
gebrauschund
Reply to  Severian
3 years ago

It would need an appealing name, with a catchy acronym, like…oh…I dunno, maybe Soothing Organic Meditation Augmentation.

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  Severian
3 years ago

you could call it “soma” or something

dave
dave
3 years ago

I worked as a gun crime data analyst for the Durham NC PD for the last 13 years. Population 200k to 250+k. Did the analyses as in the article. We could just have scaled our data up and it would have been Bodymore.

I have a friend who was the director of the Trauma Dept. (includes the ED) at Duke Med. Her take on homicides was that her docs were so good that they saved many victims.

And yes, much violent crime was gang-on-gang. And EVERYBODY knew this, and it remained unaddressed. Durham is a black, lib run city.

Member
3 years ago

So Diversity isn’t our strength?

JohnTyler
JohnTyler
3 years ago

Clearly, these black crime rates are the fault of Donald Trump, Global Warming, the Crusades, Christopher Columbus, capitalism, the legacy of slavery, George Bush I and II, Halliburton, imperialism, homophobia, discrimination against the LGBT community and against “full figured” females, white privilege, the Jews, Dick Cheney, conservatives, Christians, lack of open borders, institutional racism and, of course, lax gun laws (that allow criminals to have guns). Once we have a black president that serves two full terms, black US Attorney Generals, and many other blacks in positions of real power within the Federal Govt., then, and only then, will sky… Read more »

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
3 years ago

Zman, why do you live in Baltimore? Big Poe fan?

BTP
Member
Reply to  thezman
3 years ago

Ha. My cousin lives in Charm City. He renovated a row house and the thing looks beautiful. Whores across the street, used strap-ons in front of the house sometimes. But that house!

Sim1776
Sim1776
Reply to  Karl McHungus
3 years ago

You should see the neighborhood where the Poe house is located…

Ryan
Ryan
3 years ago

If Baltimore didn’t produce this sort of crime we would never have gotten The Wire. I’m pretty sure the trade off was worth it. Goddamn that was a good show.

Karl McHungus
Karl McHungus
Reply to  Ryan
3 years ago

almostt as good as “Homicide: Life on the Street”

Anonymous White Male
Anonymous White Male
3 years ago

This is where I continually dismiss people as being a libtard. Cities like Baltimore, Detroit, Chicago, or fill-in-the-blank-city-with-large-populations-of-pavement-apeicus are the way they are due to blacks. However you want to slice it, it still boils down to this simple reality. Blacks know it. Hispanics know it. Everybody knows it. Even diversity libtards. The difference for libtards is their refusal to articulate said truth. Anyone capable of reason asks themselves: “Why?” Something so obvious and yet public policy can’t be changed to incorporate this fundamental truth. You can understand why blacks avoid addressing this or ook and eek about “racism” or… Read more »

james wilson
james wilson
Reply to  Anonymous White Male
3 years ago

Everybody has a teeny amygdala. Not everybody has a big brain to interpret that information.

Glen Filthie
Glen Filthie
Member
Reply to  Anonymous White Male
3 years ago

It’s the same old problem with a new twist. Our host is in the same pickle that Galileo found himself in during the Renaissance when he endorsed Capernicanism. The church knew full well that the earth and sun were not the centre of the universe; and that this did not square with the Holy Word. Galileo wasn’t imprisoned because he sought out truth; he was persecuted because he was going to spill the beans to the Dirt People before the Cloud People had a chance to spin the new facts. Can you imagine what would happen if those dirt digging… Read more »

Garr
Garr
Reply to  Anonymous White Male
3 years ago

Sympathy for observed individual exceptions. Same motivation as for easy divorce — some women really were horribly abused. Another example: public homosexual activity legalized because sometimes decently closeted homosexuals were wrongly victimized. So the general good is neglected in order to save the exceptions.

BTP
Member
3 years ago

150,000 arrests? That’s a quarter of the population arrested in five years!

JerryC
JerryC
Reply to  BTP
3 years ago

Of course they’re just arresting the same people over and over. The sainted Freddie Gray had already been arrested sonething like 25 times when he met his untimely demise in the back of a Baltimore PD paddy wagon.

Audacious Epigone
3 years ago

Baltimore falls pretty much in line with the national distributions on crime in general and murder in particular, except blacks are even more violent there than in the country as a whole.

One thing that’s sobering for middle Americans is how low clearance rates are for serious crimes, especially in urban areas. Half of murderers get away with it, and most get away with other violent crimes like battery and rape.

sirlancelot
sirlancelot
3 years ago

” Giving them space to destroy ”

Even with this insanity the white liberals still defend the savages !

Back in the late eighties my town decided to clean the place up and lock up all the gangbangers.

Trouble was they all got out about the same time 10 years later and went back to the hood looking to reclaim their old turf.

The bullets were really flying that summer :-0