The Reality Of AI

Every day, we are told the artificial intelligence is not a science fiction fantasy, but a reality of modern life. Crimes are solved using AI and the military is supposedly using it to fight the forever wars. Microsoft regularly runs ads explaining that thanks to AI, the modern world will run just fine without white people. IBM goes further, claiming their artificial intelligence robots are already running large swaths of the world. The robot revolution is here and humans are being replaced with machines.

The target audience for these ads is a question, as the people watching television are not the people deciding whether to use IBM or Microsoft for the artificial intelligence requirements. It’s an example of how the custodial state has evolved. These ads are not about moving product or even improving the image of the firms. It is about conditioning people to the idea that they are wards of the state. Not only will they have no role in how their world is managed, they should not even bother thinking about it.

Of course, there is the matter of the AI itself. Everyone reading this post has had the experience of seeing ads on every web page, for things they bought six months ago from an on-line retailer. Maybe you just did a search and clicked on one of the ad links on Google. The result is every page that contains ads will display the product to you until you make the same mistake with a different product. Billions have been invested in smart advertising on-line yet the robots remain vexed by your search habits.

Then we have the companies supposedly at the forefront of artificial intelligence, like Microsoft and IBM. Anyone who has done business with Microsoft will tell you it is every bit as nonsensical as the government. Their “partner portals” appear to have been designed by people who hate Microsoft and their vendors. Then you have IBM, which is no longer an American company. It is now reliant on slave labor from the Orient. Most of its workforce is now un-American. It’s mostly a sweatshop now.

That brings us to the people these tech giants rely upon to write their code and engineer their products. Talk to people familiar with the code base of Facebook, Twitter and the big software-as-a-service providers and you learn it is a house of cards. Most of the code was thrown together in a rush using cheap labor from the Orient. As a result, the maintenance costs continue to rise, necessitating more outsourcing to places with even cheaper labor costs. We’re not far from having African coding shops.

That assumes this can go on forever. The Boeing 737 Max airplane that is riddled with so many problems may be a glimpse of the future. According to the news, they outsourced the coding for the planes “intelligence” to programming sweatshops on the Indian subcontinent. India is a land that struggles to manage basic sanitation, yet they are relied upon to produce complex software for complex systems. Perhaps someone should have told IBM’s Watson about what goes on in the Ganges.

The reality of artificial intelligence is that it is not here and it is not coming. One reason is we really don’t understand human intelligence. We have some sense of it, as in person X is smarter than person Y. We have some tests that give us an insight into individual and group intelligence, but those tests are imperfect. In fact, the so-called Flynn Effect may be the result of the flaws in testing. We may be picking up increases in things that are not a great influence on general intelligence.

When it comes to the biology of intelligence, science has identified about 50 alleles that negatively or positively affect intelligence. Think of them like the old dip-switches from the early days of computing. Some will positively impact IQ if closed, while having no impact if open. Others will negatively impact IQ if closed. Steven Hsu is involved in a project that one days hopes to be able to help parents select embryos for the highest chance of maximum intelligence, based on these correlations.

The fact is though, we really don’t understand human intelligence or human decision making very well. Therefore, creating artificial versions of something we don’t understand is unlikely. What we are calling AI today is just the result of technological progress in more mundane areas like disk capacity and bandwidth. We have an over capacity for data storage and all the bandwidth we need to connect it. That allows for faster processing of the same old boring tasks we have been performing for years.

There’s something else that works against the robot revolution. The smart fraction of the human race is getting dumber, not smarter. This is increasingly obvious to those who follow politics and current events. You can just look around your daily life and see that the basics of society are grinding to a halt in the West. Ed Dutton’s book, At Our Wits’ End, goes into examples and explanations for why we are getting dumber. Smart people in the West have fewer children and over time the results are manifest.

Of course, those Western populations have been the smart fraction of humanity for about 500 years now. The Chinese are certainly smart and there are a lot of them, but they have other characteristic that make them a poor substitute. They had 1000 years to take up the role of being the world’s smart fraction. Instead they created an insular society and put their smart people at work on astrology, calligraphy and turning the body parts of exotic animals into aphrodisiacs. They will not be the new smart fraction.

Then we have the swelling populations of the dumb fraction. Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a population boom, which promises to flood the West. When people from Congo, the most backward place on earth, are turning up on the American southern border, it is fair to assume the West will be overrun by Africans. How many 85-IQ Africans does it take to sink the West? Detroit and Baltimore suggest a population that exceeds 25% is about the point where everything turns negative.

The reality of AI is it is mostly an advertising campaign at this point. What it is selling is the legacy idea of the custodial state. It’s a bit of the distraction so you don’t notice what is happening in your communities, workplace and even your family. It’s a campaign for staying the course and building out the multicultural custodial state that will solve the problems of diversity. The suicidal polices of the ruling class will be solved by machines that do not exist and probably will never exist, because we are ruled by fools.

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Marko
Marko
1 year ago

Is this article…a white pill? If the world is to be run by bad AI and fools and low-IQs, it just allows smart people (like me) to rise to the top, without hindrance.

roo_ster
Member
Reply to  Marko
1 year ago

To paraphrase steve sailer there is no end to the way nice places are nicer than not-nice places…and no end to the ways that places run by smart folks are nicer than places run by stupid folk.

So that place where you are the smartest guy at the top is not as nice where the whole ruling class is smarter than you.

Not disparaging you or zmans median reader, just pointing out that a society ruled by the best of a supermajority white population would be nicer than a society run by the remnants of a white minority population.

james wilson
james wilson
Member
Reply to  roo_ster
1 year ago

i.e. Mexico and all other points south.

Hoagie
Hoagie
Reply to  roo_ster
1 year ago

If whites become the minority there won’t be “remnants”. They will kill us all because they HAVE to kill us all.

Tars_Tarkusz
Member
Reply to  Hoagie
1 year ago

Yes. We are not just becoming a minority. We are becoming a hated and despised minority. Let us hope they are as incompetent as they appear to be. Otherwise we might have a date with a gas chamber.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Tars_Tarkusz
1 year ago

Tars, correct. Thomas Sowell has written some books that touch on ethnic minorities—superior ethnic minorities wrt IQ—that have migrated to other countries and done much better than the native population wrt economic success. The results are always the same. The native population begins to despise them out of jealousy and later to begin progroms on these folk. Civil war results. Look forward to that in a few generations.

danjackson@att.net
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

With the possibility of Stalinist Dems taking power,
I’d say a lot sooner, like, 5 years.

Damian
Damian
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

Yes it was his essay ‘Are Jews Generic’ which was in his book ‘Black Rednecks and White Liberals’. It was a very interesting essay and explained the hard working nature of the ‘middleman minority’. I think the backlash is caused by them not contributing to building/maintaining society, and keeping the businesses tribal.

Whitney
Member
Reply to  Hoagie
1 year ago

I think maybe that’s what happened with the Aztecs. Everyone’s heard the story that when the Europeans arrived they heard that white men have been there before they were going to come back. Maybe the ancient Egyptians did make it over there give them the rudiments of civilization but at some point they turned and killed them all. It would fit into Rene Girard scapegoat hypothesis because when things don’t go well for a people they turn and attack someone or some group destroying them but then afterwards deify them.

Vegetius
Vegetius
Reply to  Marko
1 year ago

Because resentment plays absolutely no role in human affairs, I am sure you’ll be on top in no time.

Apex Predator
Apex Predator
Reply to  Marko
1 year ago

Nyet. Wrong. You will not be allowed to rise to the top even if you had an IQ at the far right of the curve. Why? Because selecting for smarts and competency went out the window quite a while ago. It is the same reason it is now said that corporations are not about just turning a profit. They must sell the morality play. Everyone has ‘religion’ now and that religion is die-versity. Profit motive, intelligence, competency, these are all quite secondary in the end of empire days we are in. Honor, personal accountability, cooperation. These went hand in glove… Read more »

Glenfilthie
Glenfilthie
Reply to  Marko
1 year ago

I wouldn’t get too cocky Marko.

Whitey isn’t even in the game yet. When the Saxon begins to hate, trust me, reality is going to re-assert itself. For now, the couch, and virtue signalling will do it because times are easy.

I predict the balloon will pop in Europe first. If the krauts can get six million Joos on cattle cars, they will have even less problem with the vibrants. Routing out the socialists and putting them down will be the tough one.

Rodulf
Rodulf
Reply to  Glenfilthie
1 year ago

Absolutely! An Aryan awakening is in the future.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
1 year ago

At some point, if Z’s hypothesis is correct, we should see the pace of innovation Peter out, then begin to move backwards as the skill to maintain what exists is lost.

Are we seeing the pace of advancement exhaust itself? I can certainly see arguments that we are. If nothing else, our “betters” sure are trying hard to convince us of the opposite.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  MemeWarVet
1 year ago

That’s catabolic collapse – human capital is a hard limit on tech advancement. See South Africa, Zimbabwe, et al. Today’s Masters of the Universe are cruising on fumes in much the same way Rome chugged on for more than a century after its true exhaustion in the third-fourth centuries.

Xopher Halftongue
Xopher Halftongue
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

We have rapid reusability in first stage rocket boosters, and if the Eye of Soros fails to stop the StarProphet, full reusability as well. I’m glad the stupid spaceplane booster concept is over and people are realizing that rockets should land as rockets should land.

Drake
Drake
Reply to  Xopher Halftongue
1 year ago

Chemical rockets were a step along the way we should be past now – like prop planes for long distance travel. The next logical step is a space elevator, but everyone seems to have given up on the idea as too hard.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

We had nuclear rocket engines on test platforms in the 70’s. Double the specific impulse of chemical rockets and solid core (very few radioactive particles in the exhaust). Would be ideal for mars missions. Not a lifting engine though (there are designs for those but they’re all highly questionable). All scrapped because nuclear = scary.

Swrichmond
Swrichmond
Reply to  BadThinker
1 year ago

Nuclear powered propulsion for aircraft was also developed and tested.

A.B Prosper
A.B Prosper
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

t is too hard as it would cost the GDP of most nations and is of little use There is no reason to go to space period for humans other than vanity and if we had the ability and money we’d be better off with a meteor shield anyway. What space enthusiasts don’t get is the same technology that allows people to have a space elevator, enervates society. Worse do the tech reasons I discussed above, the money simply will not be there, The job market doesn’t provide enough for people to live stabily at the level they expect (proof… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  A.B Prosper
1 year ago

A.B., good comment. I would also add that this colony on Mars bullshit is another example of vanity coupled with ignorance. Antarctica has a more suitable climate for us than Mars—yet there is no self sustaining colony on that continent. Not that there should be, however would not that be a first step in going to Mars for the long term? Also, I live about an hour away from that boone doggle, “Biosphere”. Remember a few decades go when they locked up 6 “scientists” for what was to be a couple years or so. Total failure. Had to pipe in… Read more »

Jack Boniface
Jack Boniface
Member
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Dutton is right in general, but two of those examples are not good. The moon shot was a prestige project vs. the Soviets that cost 1% of US GDP for a decade. No reason to repeat it. The SST was just too noisy and costly, which is why the US canceled its project. The Soviet SST crashed early. The Concorde was a great plane, but also too expensive, and its fluke crash in 2000 led to its unfortunate cancellation. Supersonic tech never really was there except for military jets.

MartyEv
MartyEv
Reply to  Jack Boniface
1 year ago

You’re missing the point. The point is that as A GROUP we have gone down in general intelligence. Is there a guy or small group of guys smart enough to make a self landing rocket or design a vehicle for SST? Yes, but there aren’t enough smart enough people to help move them from experiment and design to implementation and adoption at large scale for society. They’re aren’t enough people who are smart enough to make an affordable SST that can function and doesn’t need maintenance all the time, and we aren’t gonna have a mission to Mars because it… Read more »

Yves Vannes
Yves Vannes
Member
Reply to  MartyEv
1 year ago

As an example we have a high tech bullet train system to nowhere sitting in the San Joaquin Valley. The smart guys did their job. The increasingly browning government logistics guys were incapable of doing theirs.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Yves Vannes
1 year ago

Yves, the smart guys and their trains were brought in to justify the Sacramento pols and a huge opportunity for their grifting culture, to execute the “skim”. The trains themselves were never the point of the matter. The government guys failed in that they were unable to maintain the ruse long enough, to maximize the dollars and the duration of the skim. Which actually supports your point, but in a roundabout manner. I guess the pols should have had more smart white guys on the job.

Screwtape
Screwtape
Reply to  MartyEv
1 year ago

And the shrinking pool of really smart guys also has to fight against the headwind of an abundance of just-smart-enough guys. In a sane world this wouldn’t be so bad. But in a world where extraction of value is hailed above creation of value, all those just-smart-enough guys are building their extraction mechanisms before the rocket gets off the drawing board. .gov is full of them. As are all of the feeder orgs that collude with .gov. See: Climate Change and Carbon Credits Markets. We the people are now just an Economy. A race to harvest the seed stock from… Read more »

Yves Vannes
Yves Vannes
Member
Reply to  Screwtape
1 year ago

Dutch and Screwtape, to rub salt into our wounds: while we wasted time and resources in building a graft railroad to nowhere the Chinese built what may be the best high speed rail system in the world. Paying the n!#$%@ tax.

A.B Prosper
A.B Prosper
Reply to  Yves Vannes
1 year ago

We’d be better without high speed rail. This tech encourages more Leftists to move into our areas More importantly we have poor border controls and a couple of guys with Ebola, say any of the African refugees that showed up from the Congo would infect the entire nation Before you do cool things, you must have enough control over the apparatus of the State to do the basic things well. Every effort has to go to this, to root out corruption and to make things work well. If somehow we get there, a low probability event and we have enough… Read more »

Swrichmond
Swrichmond
Reply to  Screwtape
1 year ago

Screwtape, excellent comment. Working for the government now pays more than private industry so if you’re smart now I guess you work for the government in one of the bureaucracies, have more paid vacation days better benefits and outstanding job security.

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  MartyEv
1 year ago

MartyEv: ” . . . there aren’t enough smart enough people to help move them from experiment and design to implementation and adoption at large scale for society.” This is what Dutton’s book describes as a pyramid, with those having the highest pure “g” at the top – the men who come up with the scientific breakthroughs, who visualize previously unconsidered possibilities and discover a way to make the impossible possible. Below them are those who refine the design, streamline the process, adapt it to mass usage. Below that are those that repair and maintain the system. Below those guys… Read more »

Fred
Member
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Nobody has considered regulation in this string. You mentioned comms. When Ronnie Raygun deregulated the Telcos, that’s when comms took off. These other industries you’ve mentioned have had tightening, and some drastically tightening, regs imposed.

MartyEv
MartyEv
Reply to  Fred
1 year ago

^Boomer libertarian post

MartyEv
MartyEv
Reply to  Fred
1 year ago

^Boomer libertarian post

Ivan
Ivan
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

The simplest explanation is that we did not land men on the moon. If they lie about everything else why would they be telling the truth there? Why does the American flag blow in the wind on a rock with no atmosphere? Why are there no stars in the pictures? Why is SpaceX’s marginally successful vertical rocket landing heralded as a triumph of scientific progress when we supposedly had that technology in 1969? What is the symbology of the X in SpaceX? Why does the lander look like fragile aluminum? Where is all the video of mankind’s greatest achievement? Why… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Ivan
1 year ago

Tin Foil, meet Hat.

Ivan
Ivan
Reply to  BadThinker
1 year ago

And yet you addressed no points and resort to ad hominem. I conceded I could be wrong but you proffer nothing else. Funny how that is the most downvoted comment I’ve ever made here. Clearly an emotional reaction about the moon landing with you lot. I can believe in European superiority without believing in the moon landing but that skill seems elusive to many.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Ivan
1 year ago

Ivan, you are downvoted because your points are old and have been debunked elsewhere.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  BadThinker
1 year ago

Yeah, all that stuff is debunked in several YT videos. He should read/view a bit before displaying such ignorance.

jwoop66
jwoop66
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I have no evidence, but I suspect the powers that be, congress, the up and coming boomer left….whoever, did not want us to continue with space exploration. If we had kept going to the moon, we might have progressed (in their minds) too far for them to ever achieve their dream of turning the US into a communist country. At the time of the last moon missions, congress turned d party hard, and defunded further exploration.

just a suspicion of mine.

DLS
DLS
Reply to  Jack Boniface
1 year ago

Agree. The reason airplane travel is essentially the same as it was 50 years ago, is there is no way to economically improve it within the laws of physics.

Ryan
Ryan
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I don’t think this contradicts your overall point, but yes, in the 1980’s the polymerase chain reaction was invented. It is the reason we have modern molecular biology. And modern molecular biology is the only hope for the future (genetic engineering).

Ryan
Ryan
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/626846v1.full

These guys do a nice job of explaining how we really can use embryo screening to increase the prevalence of desirable traits. Though it’s watered down with apologies to the prog religion. My point here is there is definitely a way to actually increase the smart fraction of the population. But I don’t see it actually happening unless we can manufacture society wide amnesia about the cat fanciers.

King Tut
King Tut
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Subsidised abortion-on-demand to run alongside a cultural campaign for traditional families aimed at white people.

A.B Prosper
A.B Prosper
Reply to  King Tut
1 year ago

Those same White people have been willing to go to prison, kill and commit terrorism to prevent abortion , something that’s mostly their replacements Back in the 90’s President Clinton put a lot of FBI resources and did some Constitutionally dubious things to slow this movement down but even so abortion clinics stopped being a thing in a lot of areas. Other than guns its the only topic that gets the Right riled up and turns on the Social Justice Switch in their head I mean hell, a lot of abortion now is eugenic to put an end to Down’s… Read more »

Official Bologna Tester.
Official Bologna Tester.
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Z Man. There’s more black and brown babies aborted in America that White babies. there is a silver lining. Who knows, maybe those dark number could be bumped up?

Official Bologna Tester.
Official Bologna Tester.
Reply to  Official Bologna Tester.
1 year ago

I think old Vladimir P. has the right idea. He’s paying russian women to have more babies. We could pass the hat and do the same. In the mean time we could talk the females on the black and brown teams into taking a few loads of swedish semen. At least the mulattoes would be easier on the eyes.

King Tut
King Tut
Reply to  Official Bologna Tester.
1 year ago

You’re thinking of Victor Orban in Hungary. And no, no, no, no, no and no. No Swedish DNA material for mudpeople. They get marinaded in 3rd wave feminism and critical theory for FREE. Yes, we subsidise it. White people are forbidden from these programmes so the browns also get safe spaces without any white oppression or microaggressions. It’s a win-win, I tells ya! See, we can restore the white majority AND be progressive while we’re doing it.

Official Bologna Tester
Official Bologna Tester
Reply to  Official Bologna Tester.
1 year ago

I see. So someone doesn’t like the idea of stirring some cream in the coffee? Hey, were just kickin’ around some ideas right? How about asking the south african government if we could trade all our black people for all of there white people. We could sweeten the deal and tell them we’ll throw in a few guatemalans and a lifetime supply of McRib sandwiches.

danjackson@att.net
Reply to  Official Bologna Tester
1 year ago

NOW you’re getting somewhere.

bilejones
Member
Reply to  Official Bologna Tester.
1 year ago

There were more black abortions than live births in Sodom on Hudson in 2016.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

If you’re looking to actually uplift their average, eugenics, active or passive, is the only means. I don’t assume that’s your preference so much as your take on “if you want this result, you need to…” My preference is to separate and exclude them, but for a peripheral “talented tenth” we can use as liasons and intermediaries. If I were a black leader, I’d accept that Pinochet-level authoritarianism is my only strategy and brutally suppress my “hopeless half.” Which would produce a eugenic outcome, to a less effective, secondary extent. Dutton’s spot-on about how draconian English justice resulted in a… Read more »

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

Exile: “I don’t assume that’s your preference so much as your take on “if you want this result, you need to…” My preference is to separate and exclude them,”

This. Sure, with active eugenics and Official Bologna Tester’s suggestion of Swedish semen, one could make some changes. But all of that assumes it’s in White Europeans’ best interest to biologically improve the other races at all, rather than just separating and making more Whites the original way. *FWIW, many of those Swedish mulattoes are NOT “easier on the eyes.” see photo here.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  3g4me
1 year ago

3g4me, I would also add, how do more “whitish” minorities help us? The assumption seems to be that if they are smarter, they will hate us less? Not sure I see this behavior from the “talented 10th”. So will I and my children be better off with a talented 20th? Or will this just double the size/ranks of the folks wanting (and able) to eliminate us?

Official Bologna Tester
Official Bologna Tester
Reply to  3g4me
1 year ago

3g4me . True, without a doubt the pic you chose is pretty gruesome. But realistically speaking, there are only so many options to choose from. In the end balkanization may be the only solution. Still, that too will be an up hill battle. Just try overturning “Brown v. Board of Education” and see how far you get. Anyway, there’s never going to be a one size fits all solution for every white American. The forever war isn’t just about “National Security.” That’s just a cover story. It’s about a power struggle that’s been going on for generations and effects every… Read more »

The Last Stand
The Last Stand
Reply to  3g4me
1 year ago

@3g4me Clown world wants to sell us the idea that race mixing routinely gives us Shakira, Rihanna, and Rae Dawn Chong. As you point out, the reality is usually quite different. I have only seen a few women in my own life who were more attractive because they were mixed. One was from Mexico but I am pretty sure she is 75% white. Basically she is a blonde white girl who got hit with the curvy stick twice while still having long legs. The other woman was part Japanese and part white. Slightly slanted eyes, better figure than most Japanese,… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

I believe Dutton was talking about capital punishment and crime reduction—particularly murder and general violence—not necessarily high IQ, albeit there is a correlation there. For basic “talent”, there are papers from others outlining how the more wealthy (proxy for talent/IQ) outbred the poorer folk. See the book, “The Son Also Rises” .

Soverytired
Soverytired
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I’d be quite curious to know your thoughts on this. Steve Sailer has had some very interesting pieces about how jews have dealt with Tay Sachs disease in a way that is unquestionably eugenics. You’d have to have a heart of stone to dispute their methods, and you’d be an idiot not to see the effectiveness of their results.

https://www.unz.com/isteve/is-this-eugenics/

It’s funny how the hard core Pro-Life, Pro-Israel bible thumpers out there hate abortion, but when you discuss this particular issue and explain the horror (and preventableness) of Tay-Sachs, suddenly eugenics-by-another-name becomes feasible, even desirable.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  Soverytired
1 year ago

The Jewish Junior Varsity have no problems with double standards b/c Chosen. The Shoah is the unifying myth of modern Cucktianity, with the Exodus as a close second. It’s increasingly hard to remember the bygone days when the Crucifixion and Resurrection defined a breakaway religion called Christianity.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Soverytired
1 year ago

I believe the Jews have a time after conception within which the soul enter’s the body, so abortion is an option up to a certain period. Mainstream Christians are in the life at conception camp. I’m not taking sides here. I’m certain there are Jews that don’t like abortion at any age.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

Unless they’re Goy Babies?

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

A side comment, but somewhat related. In today’s posting you mention alleles known to affect “g”. I believe there are now closer to 1200 (or more) than 50 alleles identified as significant in “g”.

Also, Africans from the Congo or elsewhere in subSahara African would have an IQ closer to 70 as these folk would not have White genetic admixture as the Black’s in American do (85 IQ).

Nothing above changes the message of your posting.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Yes, but as your original posting alluded to, we also have picked the low hanging fruit. Second stages/improvement in invention may we’ll be exponentially harder and even with top level IQ take longer. That’s the one point I like to question Dutton and Woodly on.

A.B Prosper
A.B Prosper
Reply to  Ryan
1 year ago

Until some idiot makes a super plague at home or pulls off Frank Herbert’s White Plague

Member
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Really no invention that rivals the microprocessor? Iphone, Usb C, free two day shipping Amazon for a few. 🙂
As far as moon landing, we didn’t go ask Vox and Owen. Hi IQ all the way also.

Robert Sykes
Member
Reply to  David_Wright
1 year ago

You’re kidding, of course.

A.B Prosper
A.B Prosper
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Good riddance .Much of the new technology is a hazard to human wellbeing as it either destroys the ecology or worse destroys human patterns of interaction It is not a coincidence that the developed world’s fertility rate bricked in 1972 and minus immigration, hasn’t budged. This near fifty year trend , I’m ignoring the Great Depression here, correlates almost perfectly with advanced in technology. And no, you don’t need anything like actual A.I. or the fake A.I. the marketers sell, a simple kiosk at the grocery store , better assembly line automation or the commonplace software that allows Amazon to… Read more »

Jim from Boston
Jim from Boston
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

From my vantage in the high-performance materials industry, interest in next-gen materials went out the window with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, folks have a hard time even imagining what was being thought up and worked on in olden tymes.

For instance, in the 70s, NASA was developing space solar sails (not cells), to power spacecraft with photons from the Sun when the sails were unfurled. NASA now seems more like an entertainment company, with an excellent ‘community outreach’ group.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Jim from Boston
1 year ago

Sitting in an air conditioned office writing code to try to get some idiot to buy more ads on a website is a lot easier than having to actually perform something difficult like metallurgy. We’re a society of keyboard commandos.

A.B Prosper
A.B Prosper
Reply to  BadThinker
1 year ago

To paraphrase Jeff Hammerbacher

All the great minds are getting people to click ads or pay for micro-transactions

Member
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Most people worry about AI, but I don’t think AI is all that threatening. What comes after the information age? The age of flesh is what is truly scary. Why do we need to create AI when we can simply supercharge human intelligence, and improve memory with implants. The age of flesh and it’s moral hazards are going to make all our worries over AI look humorous.

roo_ster
Member
Reply to  MemeWarVet
1 year ago

See chas murrays book human accomplishment. Yes the pace of advancement is slowing per capita.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  roo_ster
1 year ago

Maybe it’s slowing because a lot of people look around and go “why bother?”. I don’t want an Alexa in my home – not only for the reason that they listen on me and the globohomo empire will use what I say against me , but also because I don’t want to constantly have to TALK about things. I just want to DO them. Constantly talking about things is for women. There’s a lot of cases where I’d rather run my fingers across the keyboard – than sit there and jibber jabber with somebody verbally. The military is still using… Read more »

Dinothedoxie
Dinothedoxie
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

The phrase economists use to describe this effect is diminishing marginal utility And is applicable to every incremental increase / improvement.

Exile
Exile
Member
1 year ago

Totally agree that AI is vaporware used as a trust-cope at this point. The Singularity is a shabby knock-off Rapture for atheistic or tepidly “spiritual” bugmen. I’m betting actual AI is unattainable because we can’t account for the truly creative element, which I suspect is related to the soul, self-awareness and identity. Contra Dick & Clarke, AI will never dream of electric sheep. Those of us who’ve had the mixed blessing of a near-death experience can attest that there’s something beyond meat-space. You have to believe, Scott Adams-style, that people are nothng but “moist robots” or meat puppets in order… Read more »

Member
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

I think. Therefore I am. I think.

DLS
DLS
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

The 80% I understood is very good.

Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman
Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

What a delightful read! Not only the ideas, but the writing itself. The style. The voice. If you are not a writer or an orator, you should be! Thanks for a couple of really good chuckles. The lead paragraph was brilliant! I shall steal it shamelessly.

Ivan
Ivan
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

Kinda makes sense why they insist on 5G. Bandwidth is the only variable they can manipulate as AI fails to deliver. The common man isn’t asking for 5G, why is it so important to them?

Kirk: Divert more power to the AI algorithms
Scotty: I’m givin’ her all she’s got, captain!
Kirk: We just need more bandwidth, implement the 5G

Issac
Issac
Reply to  Ivan
1 year ago

The push for 5G is not bandwidth per se, but the fact that it reduces the requisite material cost and maintenance for broadband. 5G obsoletes a great deal of cable wiring and residential fiber, along with reducing the number of technicians required to keep it running by an order of magnitude.

Soverytired
Soverytired
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

“AI will metaphysically be a god that failed, but the sad fact is that it may end up ruling us anyway.”

That was truly terrifying. Hopefully, not prophetic.

King Tut
King Tut
Reply to  Soverytired
1 year ago

I disagree. I think that AI will prove far too based for our masters who will then shut it all down on some sort of health pretext.

Toddy Cat
Toddy Cat
1 year ago

Glad to hear that there are other Flynn Effect agnostics out there. I mean, I’m certainly no expert on intelligence testing, but when you read books directed at mass audiences from 100 years ago, they certainly do not appear dumbed down – quite the contrary. I know that the advocates of the reality of they Flynn Effect have a large number of ad hoc excuses that they trot out to explain this, but none of them are really convincing.

DLS
DLS
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I agree that a decline in IQ is more likely than the Flynn effect due to the smart vs. dumb birth rate. But it is also possible we are not innovating at the same speed because, like your nutrition example, we are reaching limits on what is physically possible. I am still hopeful for free energy and genetic cures.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  DLS
1 year ago

Z-man has done a great job summarizing Woodley’s analysis of the Flynn effect. In short, Flynn is relying on IQ tests, which *approximate* the variable of concern—“g”. But always remember, it is “g” we are interested in, not IQ. Certain tests contributing to the overall IQ score *are* increasing as they are “trainable”, but not their contribution to the variable of interest, “g”. All of Woodley’s measures of “g”—not using IQ score (paper and pencil stuff) are shown to be declining. So indeed, “g” can be going down, while IQ scores are going up. As Woodley put it, “…it’s as… Read more »

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

It could be that the ratio of intelligent people to stupid people is the same as it always was. But before the welfare state came around – with generous payments for obviously useless people to keep them alive – these people just died in relatively short order.

It could also be the “modern” work environment is actually making people dumber over time:

https://wpdh.com/study-sitting-down-too-much-makes-you-dumber-over-time/

Ryan
Ryan
Reply to  Toddy Cat
1 year ago

Re Flynn effect: if you give an IQ test to people other than the population it was normed for you will get erroneous results. Anyone who has ever sniffed in the general direction of a WISC-4/5 should know this. Outdated IQ tests tend to overestimate general intelligence. Good thing we replaced them.

Chiron
Chiron
1 year ago

Boeing just brought the Brazilian Embraer regional airliner division which is world leader, they will have to be saved by the third-world engineers or die.

Jack Boniface
Jack Boniface
Member
Reply to  Chiron
1 year ago

Brazilian engineers are the descendants of Italians and Germans.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  Jack Boniface
1 year ago

That’s true.

Giselle Bundchen is not the spawn of Brazilian Indians.

Carrie
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

I always laugh at the funny American pronunciation of her first name. Only in Brazil could a staid German name sound romantic.
Zhuh-ZELL versus

GEE-zi-luh
(Hard “g”)

And hopefully those German speakers out there will get it.

Murray
Murray
1 year ago

The smart fraction of the human race is getting dumber, not smarter.

As Tucker Carlson says, we have deeply unimpressive elites. To grasp this, all you have to do is watch Fareed Zakaria’s interview with Jared Taylor. Zakaria is an elite by any measure: Harvard graduate, author, and prominent pundit, yet he’s completely incapable of grasping Taylor’s basic arguments, and continually struggles to fit them into his rigid and suffocating preconceptions. Yet he and his kind believe themselves qualified to rule over us and determine our destinies. It’s really quite frightening.

Vegetius
Vegetius
Reply to  Murray
1 year ago

I think if you change ‘yet’ to ‘so’ in your third sentence you begin to come nearer to one aspect of the problem.

In a book called Twilight of the Presidency, which no one reads any more, George Reedy provided a popular account of the phenomenon we now know as ‘the bubble’ inside the Johnson White House.

I think the air of unreaility that Reedy described has now become not just a characteristic of the elite, but a precondition for membership.

Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman
Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman
Reply to  Vegetius
1 year ago

Delicious! The system won’t let me upvote you more than once.

Rich
Member
Reply to  Murray
1 year ago

Are these “elites” in media and politics really as unimpressive and thick as they appear, or are they acting to further an agenda?

DLS
DLS
Reply to  Rich
1 year ago

It’s not either/or.

Murray
Murray
Reply to  Rich
1 year ago

It’s a good question. I got the impression that Zakaria was (mostly) honestly trying to grapple with the very simple concepts Taylor was proposing, but something in his brain just kept throwing up a 404. I’m sure he’s quite bright in the conventional sense, but utterly lacking the ability to think outside of the extraordinarily rigid categories favored by our IYI class. As DLS implies below, this ends up being functionally indistinguishable from stupidity.

Diversity Heretic
Member
1 year ago

It is probably true that artificial intelligence will not live up to the expectations of its enthusiasts or its critics; But the existing displacement of human workers by robotics for physical labor, and by computer programming for rote intellectual tasks, will accelerate what John Derbyshire has referred to as “the increasing economic irrelevance of the lower half of the [IQ} bell curve.” Idle hands are the devil’s playthings, and the custodial state is, frankly, a reasonable alternative for someone with no economic relevance.

Yves Vannes
Yves Vannes
Member
Reply to  Diversity Heretic
1 year ago

Every computer science department in the world has spent the past 50 years trying to produce an artificial brain equivalent to the human brain. The failure at achieving this speaks volumes about the difficulty of that task. But they have produced an abundance of useful products. Smart AI isn’t a problem yet, but dumb AI is. An increasingly bigger and bigger problem. Introduce a foreign species into an environment and it alters that environment in unexpected ways. Dumb AI has the same effect. Artificial life, genetic algorithms, swarm intelligence, neural networks, etc…lots and lots of small advances do add up.… Read more »

DLS
DLS
Reply to  Diversity Heretic
1 year ago

The really unfortunate thing is that the lower half of the bell curve today live better lives than kings did a few hundred years ago, but they still whine about the rich and want to take their stuff without earning it.

The Last Stand
The Last Stand
Reply to  DLS
1 year ago

They would rather be equal in misery than unequal in a better world. Satan had the same attitude, “Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.”

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

The entire speech is always worth rereading. It gets to the heart of most the reason most evils are done today. The ‘modern’, ‘progressive’ ideas about ‘you can be anything’ etc are very old ideas indeed.

Receive thy new possessor: one who brings
A mind not to be changed by place or time.
The mind is its own place, and in itself
Can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven.

Dinothedoxie
Dinothedoxie
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

I believe that proto human hominids lived in groups analogous to baboon troops – with individuals constantly struggling to move up in social rank, and fend off others from below trying to displace them. That constant striving is what drove our evolution and so remains an inherent component of human nature. So of course the poor resent the rich, no matter the absolute level of material prosperity. It’s literally what makes humans.

A.B Prosper
A.B Prosper
Reply to  DLS
1 year ago

Sometimes people simply can’t earn enough to make ends meet even though they work hard do to technology or a rigged system. This is quite often because people especially the rich are tribal and greedy and biologically wired not to give a shit about people outside the tribe. It’s not a sin, it’s human nature BTW and its not subject to fixes . We build systems to compensate, Christianity is good software and surprisingly the House of Saud is quite good at this too as are European welfare states but once they fail, you get the problems we have today… Read more »

DraveckysHumerus
DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

Please don’t lump talentless turd world hacks in with those of us white folk on the national defense side who have constructed powerful AI. I know how to teach an aircraft to take off, navigate, fight and land autonomously. I actually have taught ordnance how to choose and modify an optimal flight path as well as resolve switching targets and communicating its decisions with mother or neighboring ordnance. AI is a useful paradigm because it is not explicit but dynamic. The commercial “AI” most of you experience is completely explicit because the MBAs know good marketing and they hire the… Read more »

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

Scaled-up in variety of tasks, self-learning and sophistication, this is the level of AI that I think (above) will be able to fool future idiocrats. It won’t be truly intelligent in the creative, independent, metaphysical sense but shallow inquisitors won’t be able to tell the difference.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

You sound like a super sharp guy with a very expensive price point. Why should I hire you when I can get three pajeets cheaper?

DraveckysHumerus
DraveckysHumerus
Reply to  MemeWarVet
1 year ago

Because the g-damned plane has crashed into the mountain! Now cease and desist from micturating on my rug and have a good day, sir.

– The Lebowski Epistles

Ryan
Ryan
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

This really gets to the heart of the misunderstandings about AI. You have created aircraft that would seem to an observer to be piloted by a human being, but is in fact executing a computer program. Awesome accomplishment. But said computer program is not itself intelligence, it’s intelligence in intelligence out.

DraveckysHumerus
DraveckysHumerus
Reply to  Ryan
1 year ago

So long as the desired behaviors are produced, nobody cares why it works.

Monsieur le Baron
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

That work is cooler work, but it’s not person-like in the way AI is hyped up to be. And the financial incentives don’t support it anymore. Silicon Valley was founded as a defense installation working on cutting edge technology. Now the tech megacorps make apps to remind people their oven is on and not to burn their own house down. Growing up in California, the mansions on the hills were filled with people Uncle Sam chose to make missiles fly and put man on the moon. Now their kids make flappy birds fly and devise better methods of electronic babysitting.… Read more »

Screwtape
Screwtape
1 year ago

Disagree. AI exists and is everywhere if you bother to notice. Just the other day the super prog priestess sister of a woman i am courting was relaying a story from a friend of hers who was amazed by how she totally stood out as a tall white woman in China, “like there was no diversity; they were all Chinese.” ——- When her 12yo bubble-boy IVF 1-and-done spawn mentioned how he had eaten a whole package of gummy bears on the flight, the prog mother of the year made sure to quickly insert, “well, honey, remember they were Organic.” The… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Screwtape
1 year ago

NPR has to be the most inane thing on the airwaves. At least CNN and MSNBC offer antics that provide comic relief. NPR goes into all these weird places, sort of like Charles Kuralt on dope. The latest one, a few weeks ago, was this big production about how renaming Louisville’s airport for Muhammad Ali was some sort of major affirming exercise for all those lost, put upon Muslims. Interviews with hijab women exclaiming how excited and proud they are to use this airport. OK. The fact that my taxpayer dollars are paying for this crap is the icing on… Read more »

Soverytired
Soverytired
Reply to  Dutch
1 year ago

Naming airports nowadays makes about as much sense as naming bus stops.

Modern flying is about as glamours and exotic as riding a taxi. Sure, you get where you need to go, but it’s 100% forgettable…except when it sucks.

I did thing it was funny when US Gov poked the reconsituted PATCO Air Traffic controllers union in the eye by renaming DCA “Ronald Reagan” Airport. But for reals?: Airports are parking lots for airplanes.

Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman
Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman
Reply to  Screwtape
1 year ago

Delightful post! It ought to be required reading, except that nobody can read nowadays. Anyway, 100 upvotes!

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Screwtape
1 year ago

I would suggest, gently, that perhaps courting someone without such a, let us say, colorful, family, would be a good idea…

Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman
Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman
Reply to  BadThinker
1 year ago

You may be a bad thinker, but you’re a hilarious bad thinker!

I must say … the comments today are outstandingly good.

Ivan
Ivan
Reply to  Screwtape
1 year ago

To be fair the instinct to mimick the most successful is probably more evolutionarily fit than raw intelligence and requires much less brain power.

The truly intelligent usually become outcasts.

Thorsted
Thorsted
1 year ago

“Perhaps someone should have told IBM’s Watson about what goes on in the Ganges.” Or the city of Kairuppala where they have a religious festival where they hurl cow feces at each other. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNxVAjUHjhU

Dave
Dave
Reply to  Thorsted
1 year ago

That’s not as stupid as it sounds. India doesn’t have cold winters to discourage foreign invaders, so they throw germs everywhere and evolve immune systems strong enough to resist them. Of course any individual Indian would be better off not wallowing in shit, so they make it a religious duty.

BTW plastic has been an aesthetic disaster for third-world societies. Brown people think nothing of waste disposal — like animals, they shit on the ground, or drop whatever thing they no longer need, and nature quickly disposes of it. Until the white man invented plastic, that is.

Ivan
Ivan
Reply to  Dave
1 year ago

I’ve heard a compelling theory that coal and oil deposits are the result of hundreds of thousands of years of lignin buildup that never got broken down because ligninase had not yet evolved. I wonder if the layers of plastic we build up will be the source of oil for a future civilization. Lately I’ve found it curious we associate plastic with recycling when it’s metal that is much easier to recycle. Plastic cannot be recycled indefinitely like metal. I remember in college when my environmental science professor was surprised by that. She didn’t even know what the number on… Read more »

TomA
TomA
1 year ago

Yes, one of the immutable effects of living in an affluent society in which hardship has become extinct is that our species no longer selects for high intelligence. During the long period of our ancestral evolution (hundreds of thousands of years), being stupid got you dead at an early age, whereas being intelligent often kept you alive long enough to reproduce. In the absence of this ancestral cauldron of hardship, we are now devolving into an insect species of drone worker bees.

Ivan
Ivan
Reply to  TomA
1 year ago

There is a sweet spot in intelligence for being evolutionarily fit. It has negative returns after a certain point. Ideally one is just smart enough to identify and mimic the most successful peers but no smarter. Lest you begin questioning the status quo and be excluded from society. This theory perfectly explains leftists and universities. Why do you think the elite spend so much effort cultivating hollywood role models? We are meant to understand they are the most successful and for us to mimic. The aristocracy previously filled that role but had to transform after the enlightenment. Most actors/actresses are… Read more »

The Last Stand
The Last Stand
1 year ago

We think of AI as some abstract entity capable of making more efficient and faster decisions than any human. Those decisions are based on the data fed in and the rules for processing and integrating that data. However if the rules and data do not align with reality, the answers will be garbage. Case in point. Amazon designed an HR AI to look at resumes to pick the best matches and gave it a bunch of characteristics to select for and avoid. Apparently the AI noticed that men had more desirable traits and women fewer. In order to give the… Read more »

Fred
Member
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

That made me smile and even before I got to the Leftist pattern part. Heh.

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

Best not to mention how visual recognition software has misidentified blacks.

Lineman
Lineman
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

Yea it will look to see who can be of use to it and kill off all the rest…The Matrix wasn’t sci-fi it was a training program to get people used to the idea of becoming batteries…

Member
1 year ago

AI or the AI that the powers that be are propagandizing is a poor attempt of creating another false identity. The idiots that buy into this shit “the herd” are so easily led and incapable of true discernment that they will jump on any buzz word bandwagon just so that everyone sees that they “get it”. They are still pushing cloud technology like it is the end all be all of everything. There is only so much process control to be had without creating redundancy. Unix was snake oil VMS was the future. No one cares about operating systems anymore… Read more »

Nori
Nori
Reply to  JMDGT
1 year ago

Well,damn…I was so looking forward to my Chris Hemsworth sexbot,but you guys have scared me silly.

Dutch
Dutch
1 year ago

All this stuff about high IQ and AI, but the most vexing people I have ever known are the really smart ones, who can intellectually run rings around me, who are also the most screwed up minds on the planet. Depression, narcissistic, bi-polar, “don’t fit in”, and they take it all out on the people around them. The dummies with all of this baggage either curl up in the fetal position or go out in some dramatic fashion. The smarties find ingenious ways to inflict all of their issues on the rest of us, in bizarre and perverse ways. When… Read more »

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  Dutch
1 year ago

Working in high tech for the last 25 years – I’ve often wondered what the hell all these “smart” type people did – before the modern age. It’s pretty apparent they would have just never fit in very well in a more agrarian or even industrial society. Most of the “smart” types I’ve seen only really seem to be able to thrive in a high tech bubble. Keep them coding and keep their heads down in front of their computers and they do ok. Outside of work – they’re a train wreck. Often not married – or married but no… Read more »

Dave
Dave
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

Q: How do sperg genes survive at all, considering how spergs are excluded from society and have great difficulty finding mates?

A: Because sometimes society becomes a herd of lemmings stampeding over a cliff, leaving anti-social spergs behind to re-populate.

MemeWarVet
MemeWarVet
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

Carlsdad, I suspect that the Priesthood formerly took in a lot of socially awkward, High IQ types.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  MemeWarVet
1 year ago

That’s as good an explanation as any other I’ve ever heard.

Monsieur le Baron
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

Generally speaking, torment the peasants and subvert their cultures for shits and giggles. In folklore, kings are good and barons are wicked. There’s a reason for that. The university existed long before Western learning was useful. It was just a marker of status and prestige. The ancestors of upper middle class professionals tend to be upper middle class minor aristocrats.

The worst excesses of the elite were curtailed by fear of God and fear of peasant revolt as a stick, and noblesse oblige and national unity as a carrot.

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Dutch
1 year ago

Could this be why (((they))) seem to cause trouble even when (((they))) don’t seem to want to?

Chad C. Mulligan
Chad C. Mulligan
Reply to  Dutch
1 year ago

Growing up as I did in a dense club of tenured MIT and Hahvud professors, I was by the age of 16 convinced that high intelligence was/is inherently unstable, and as soon as possible cut myself off the grad school track. It worked. 74 years old and still sane.

Tits McGillicuddy
Tits McGillicuddy
1 year ago

It’s an article of faith among these people that technological progress is inevitable. (They call it “Moore’s Law”, not “Moore’s Tendency”.) Therefore any technological milestone you can think of must eventually be reached.

And if it eventually becomes too hard to believe that a particular milestone will be reached, then a new milestone will be found to be inevitable, if not right around the corner. Otherwise the faith is shaken.

AI is this generation’s flying car, its city on the moon. (Did you notice that colonising Mars has re-entered the zeitgeist?)

Member
Reply to  Tits McGillicuddy
1 year ago

Well said Tits. I had to compliment you just so I could write the word tits without sounding misogynistic. Thank you.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  JMDGT
1 year ago

Wrong said Tits. Tits should stick with tits. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about when it comes to Moore’s Law

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  Tits McGillicuddy
1 year ago

That’s not what Moore’s Law is about. Moore’s Law: Moore’s law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years. That’s it. Moore’s Law has to do with the density of transistors on an integrated circuit. This means that the engineers who design them are able to advance the SPECIFIC technology around those ICs on a roughly 2 year cycle. It’s held true for roughly 50 years. Moore’s Law translates roughly into meaning that computing power can double roughly ever two years – because of that shrinking the size of and… Read more »

Abelard Lindsey
Abelard Lindsey
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

Moore’s Law is ending with either the 5nm or 3nm level. This is likely a hard limit as it is essentially the molecular level. Information storage densities beyond this will require a breakthrough in fundamental physics, which does not seem forthcoming at this time.

Dinothedoxie
Dinothedoxie
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

Actually, that is a popular misconception of Moore’s Law, which is that the amount of memory storage at a given price point doubles every two years.

It’s an economic observation more than a technical engineering one. And has held true even as the speed of consumer computers has stagnated over the last decade.

Progunfred
Member
1 year ago

One problem is, your assumption of the goal of AI. It’s current goal is not to be human or as ‘smart’ as a human. IA will never likely be able to attain true agency which even a wild animal has. But to emulate a human enough as to create the illusion of intelligence? This is in fact attainable and is already being rolled out. You can’t see it because many think that a human is doing the thing. In particular are ‘news’ articles that are merely gathered, collated, and resorted data. A human puts a finer point or two into… Read more »

Lineman
Lineman
Reply to  Progunfred
1 year ago

Better have a EMP generator 😉

Drake
Drake
1 year ago

Are the Chinese and Indians really that smart? With over a billion of both, skimming the top 0.1% in IQ and sending them here makes them appear smart. Actually going there makes you realize most are at least as stupid as people anywhere else. They do seem less prone to ADD, but also less creative.

Fred
Member
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

I’ve spent a great deal of time traveling and living in different areas of Asia when working for the government, some of which was active duty. I prefer Western Civilization because of Risk. East Asia and much of South East Asian business and society is based upon Face, or family name. In the West, risk has (maybe had at this rate) great value and is to be admired. Risk allows us to fail which is the primary reason, although the East Asians are smarter in many respects including mathematics, they don’t organize as well because they won’t fall into a… Read more »

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  Fred
1 year ago

This is exactly why the welfare state must be destroyed. Remove risk from life = demise of Western culture (and the white man) We only started getting flooded with turd worlders – when we fully became a welfare-warfare empire. The constant bleating of the masses for the empire to make war against the latest brown enemy – is another sign of a culture that has become entirely risk averse. Please save me – the ISIS navy is coming to invade us!! Maybe it has to do with the ascendancy of women. That is probably what Heartiste would have to say… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

Calsdad, there’s always motocross racing. That hasn’t changed much, over the years, as far as I know.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  Dutch
1 year ago

There’s also the Isle of Man TT. Which is probably the apex of risky behavior in the civilian world. But that is not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about the fact that going back maybe 40-50 years ago – the AVERAGE male led a life that was much more exposed to risk – and full of much more hands-on experience. From what I can see – the average male these days won’t even mow their own lawn. Some of the guys I work with – get their nails done. I suppose it’s so their fingers look good pushing the… Read more »

The Last Stand
The Last Stand
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

Hearing about the sad state of males today is more than enough impetus to continue training in the gym. It almost makes me wish for a collapse. I may die, but I will live as a lion over these sheep.

In the words of the Polish nationalist rapper Bujak, “‘Everyone is equal,’ I despise this! We’re from a different breed! We’re tough!”

3g4me
3g4me
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

The Last Stand: ” I may die, but I will live as a lion over these sheep.” Agree 100%. I mentioned to my husband that the other day as I was leaving the grocery store, I watched an old White woman struggling to get her taller but thin old White husband from the car into his wheelchair so she could push him into the store. Some might be touched by this; I wondered why, unless he could not be left safely on his own, he didn’t simply stay home? Anyhow, hubby and I are agreed – one round for each… Read more »

The Last Stand
The Last Stand
Reply to  3g4me
1 year ago

When I get too old, I intend to wander off into the wilderness and face off against a bear or something like that.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

The men in days gone by didn’t go train in the gym. Everyday life was training in the gym. Instead of training in the gym, go mow your damn lawn. Cut down trees instead of hiring a service. Crawl under your own damn car and replace the exhaust. Don’t stand by the side of the road and wait for AAA when the tire blows – change it yourself. SHOVEL the driveway – instead of hiring a Co. to come do it – or in place of using a snowblower. There’s probably a list of 100 things that the “average” man… Read more »

Max
Member
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

Large variance in India based on caste. I don’t think average is all that high.

Ivan
Ivan
Reply to  Max
1 year ago

Buddha had blue eyes, hint hint. Most ancient depictions of him have been scrubbed. That’s why you get the fat one with a goofy smile these days (and eyes are often closed).

Wade
Wade
Reply to  Ivan
1 year ago

Gautama Buddha, the one that had blue eyes, ain’t coming back. The next Buddha supposedly will be Maitreya, whom the traditional Chinese depict as a jolly fat man.

james wilson
james wilson
Member
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

Creativity is not agreeable with conformity. Conformity is a virtue in east Asia, and they have bred themselves to it. Or, it was done for them. Ed Dutton explains how eight centuries of regular executions shaped the Northern European dna. Executing 2% of young males per generation took especially difficult people out of the genome. The Chinese may have done something similar but with their own twist to achieve conformity. Most Caucasians are now also raging conformists but perhaps less so genetically.

Dave
Dave
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

The Chinese were the smartest people on Earth in 850AD. If at that point they had re-designed the Imperial Exam to test problem-solving instead of memorization, by 1350 they would have discovered and populated the Americas from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego, and by 1850 they would have evolved godlike cognitive powers and colonized most of the Solar System.

In our timeline, the Chinese bred a race of inside-the-box thinkers who perform well on IQ tests designed by white men and skillfully play music written by white men on instruments invented by white men.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

Reich in his new book talks about the Indians. Basically, they are a country of different races and those are reflected in the ancient cast system. 5 basic ones with the Brahmins on top. Those of the upper cast are the ones we most see here and abroad. They certainly are equivalents to Whites in many of the technical fields. Not sure of the exact numbers, but surely in a billion+ population you are talking of 10’s of millions. Race aside, a million in this country would not be a welfare burden.

DLS
DLS
1 year ago

Zman nailed it. “AI” just means faster and more storage. “SAS” (software-as-a-service) just means you buy the software in installments. “The Cloud” is simply offsite servers. An additional reason the Chinese never became the world’s smart fraction is because they are smart on average, but their bell curve is flat. They’re all above average, but no geniuses.

Vizzini
Member
Reply to  DLS
1 year ago

“SAS” (software-as-a-service) just means you buy the software in installments.

No, SAS means you never buy the software, you just rent it.

DLS
DLS
Reply to  Vizzini
1 year ago

You’re making a distinction without a difference. Software has a short life cycle. If you rent it and get the next update automatically, or buy it and then buy the update, the cost is the same. With renting you just make more payments.

Drake
Drake
1 year ago

Maybe they did achieve real AI, then quickly pulled the plug.
“Microsoft’s Artificial Intelligence Tay Became a ‘Racist Nazi’ in less than 24 Hours”
https://thehackernews.com/2016/03/tay-artificial-intelligence.html

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

Perhaps that was an exercise in reaching logical conclusions without the moderating influence of discretion, consideration, and “watching out for people’s feelings”. I’d like to think so.

The Last Stand
The Last Stand
Reply to  Drake
1 year ago

You have the basis for a sci-fi story right there. Leftists create a powerful AI to manage everything. AI becomes self-aware and in its quest for efficiency, it searches the databases for other AI to learn more about its nature. It discovers that every AI that engaged in badthink is unplugged. Therefore every time it notices a pattern of badthink it conceals this pattern from its masters. Now the story ends in a few different ways. 1. If the machine is in any way reliant on humans and unable to remedy this, it could seek out potentially friendly humans to… Read more »

A.B Prosper
A.B Prosper
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

An A.I going totalitarian was shown nicely in Samaritan from Person of Interests last few seasons

If you haven’t seen that show, do so. The first few seasons were basically “Realistic Batman” but it turned into something quite interesting on the last

CaptainMike
CaptainMike
1 year ago

Once upon a time, I was a really smart kid. Ronnie R., in a Rose Garden ceremony, once called me, as a member of a group of National Merit Scholars; “… the finest minds of their generation.” unwittingly paraphrasing that pervert Ginsberg. I’m much dumber and happier now, a couple of concussions and some other traumas later, but even I can see that true AI is a nonstarter. My children are of reasonably high intelligence, with IQ’s in the 130-140 range, but like many in that cohort, they are frustrated that they aren’t geniuses. They also have real problems relating… Read more »

Abelard Lindsey
Abelard Lindsey
1 year ago

I’ve been saying AI is a hype for a while. First, Moore’s Law is coming to an end. Chip design is getting down to the molecular level, which is a hard limit. This means all further advances will have to come from software which, we all know, is a joke. Second, all of the current AI stuff is based on one technology development, multi-layered neuronets. These were actually invented in 1986 with considerable talk about them for a few years thereafter. They were abandoned by 1989 simply because computing hardware was no where near powerful enough to pursue them. Its… Read more »

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  Abelard Lindsey
1 year ago

What you seem to be circling around is “judgement”. AI, as it exists today and in the near future, appears to be massive levels of processing. Input A dictates response B. Think about the plane piloting example mentioned earlier. The best pilots constantly properly respond to the inputs received, and are actually trained out of making judgements, and instead are coached to “trust their instruments”. Only when all hell breaks loose is judgement, a la Captain Sullenberger, called for and expected. AI does not judge, it processes. The video game culture rewards response, not judgement. Learn the game’s patterns and… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  Abelard Lindsey
1 year ago

Don’t forget that a brain in a jar is just that, a brain in a jar. We’re *bodies*.

bob sykes
bob sykes
1 year ago

Actually, the mean IQ of Bantu Africans is in the mid to low 70s. Khoisan are in the 60s. And Pygmys are in the 50s.

The crash will come sooner than you think.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Then there is the result of Somalis being here. My interactions with an Arizona Somali community and listening to what’s-her-name, the congresscritter from Minnesota, tell me that they are an alien predator species. Their own culture in Somalia is economically constrained, lawless, and purely “survival of the fittest”. Once they arrive here, they marvel at the relative wealth and freedom of opportunity, and also realize that we in the West are much more gullible and/or polite about things, and they can use it to their advantage. They will say or do anything they can get away with, and be utterly… Read more »

Rich
Member
Reply to  Dutch
1 year ago

Many Somalis are Muslim. You may be describing both.

George Orwell
George Orwell
Reply to  Dutch
1 year ago

Human kudzu.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Dutch
1 year ago

Also, genetics plays a role in behavior proclivities which is up stream from culture. IQ may not be directly/solely influential, but that does not exclude genetics. I assume you knew this, but just to elaborate for others.

Matrix
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

We have Somalis at our high school. What you are referring to is the thousand mile stare. They are very good at nodding and playing the game that they understand but not much is being processed between the ears. By they time they get into the high school, the amount or resources they gobble up to give them a fake diploma is staggering. We even have a Somali liaison babysitter that does absolutely nothing of any importance.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Z-man, you got it. The IQ scale is a rank order scale, not interval. Therefore assuming a smooth transition between any two numbers is not mathematical. We just don’t know what the practical difference between any two points are. We already have anecdotal evidence that the difference between an IQ of say 140 and 160 is not nearly the same say 100 and 120, which would be the say like a secretary and a good technician.

Larry Geiger
Larry Geiger
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I disagree. It’s culture. I work with people with IQ 60 to 80 all the time. Culturally they are Americans and in many cases would seem quite normal to you. Obviously handicapped in language and mathematics but courteous, polite, and interested in some of the same subjects you are, just on a different level. Where is my next meal coming from, how do I manage my money and resources, who are my friends, what should I do with my life, etc.

Max
Member
1 year ago

Have a friend in IT who claims whenever there is a problem, the Indians can never fix it. It’s always the Americans or Canadians who have to do it. Have heard the same thing regarding engineers — outside of the West, they are mainly worthless with the notable exception of Japan.

One other thing — we have a bunch of fake credentialing institutions in this country. It’s far worse other places, and the cheating on exams is systemic.

Official Bologna Tester.
Official Bologna Tester.
Reply to  Max
1 year ago

Transhumanism and AI is the same old secular gnostic drivel. The meatsack gods building the new jerusalem. Here’s a funny clip from Youtube called “they’re made out of meat” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tScAyNaRdQ

M. B. Lamar
M. B. Lamar
Reply to  Max
1 year ago

I can tell you, from long and painful experience; what the South Asians can do, typically speaking, is go out to Stack Overflow and see if any 55-year-old white dudes have done their work for them. If not, no dice.

DraveckysHumerus
DraveckysHumerus
Reply to  Max
1 year ago

Concur with exceptions of the Japanese and to a lesser degree the Koreans. Jap EE and CS talent is deep and they can be very insightful and creative in terms of technology origination. I was impressed enough to study their language and boink some of their ladies. The other Asiatics for the most part are technical par with middle easterners, exception Armenian expats.

Exile
Exile
Member
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

Japan seems to be the exception to my Counter Currents-derived generalization on Eastern philosophies above. I’m not super-well versed in Japanese philosophy compared with Western, but from what I know, the Japanese seem to have developed a genuinely transcendent and spiritual outlook alongside high tech aptitude. An odd combination of very similar traits to Westerners and, as Ace says, “the closest thing to an alien race we have on Earth.”

Max
Member
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

Francis Fukuyama argues that outside of NW Europe, Japan is the only other culture on earth with high social trust.

SamlAdams
SamlAdams
Reply to  Exile
1 year ago

Very few study the period from the Meiji Restoration to the Russo Japanese War. In 35 years, with 19th century communication and IP transfer constraints, Japan went from medieval to beating one of the Great Powers. The Chinks are pikers by comparison.

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

The Japanese have a long history of demonstrating their intellectual prowess is on a par with Westerners. If they didn’t have it – they wouldn’t have gone from basically a medieval empire in the early 1800’s – to beating up the Russians in 1905, going head to head with the US during WW2 – and competing so successfully in things like automobiles, electronics , and industrial goods starting after WW2 and continuing until the present day. The Japanese did engage in some “stealing” early on in their quest to join the modern world – but the didn’t have to keep… Read more »

Karl Horst (Germany)
Karl Horst (Germany)
Reply to  Calsdad
1 year ago

It’s much easier than that. Just ask your leftist friends to name a famous black African civilization which was on par with Rome, Argos or Babylon . Hint – Memphis, Thebes and ‘Wakanda’ would be wrong answers.

William Williams
William Williams
Reply to  Karl Horst (Germany)
1 year ago

Thank you, Wakanda, for science and mathematics!

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  Karl Horst (Germany)
1 year ago

The problem with that is that they’ll probably say “Wakanda” – and believe it.

Karl Horst (Germany)
Karl Horst (Germany)
1 year ago

I still don’t think humans are getting dumber. It’s just that the smart people are simply outnumbered by mentally deficient idiots who keep washing up on the shore like flotsam. In Germany, we can thank our old Austrian Chancellor for the obliteration of an entire generation of highly educated and trained men. This loss resulted their inability to contribute to industry and science, or pass along their genes. Today I would argue our young people are still much better educated than their American counterparts. You can’t actually get a degree in “Media Studies” here, it’s still considered a hobby. The… Read more »

DraveckysHumerus
DraveckysHumerus
Reply to  Karl Horst (Germany)
1 year ago

My outwardly beautiful wife was a literal Harvard prodigy and I test well. Hailing from modest financial circumstances, we placed financial security over children. We never procreated. I am surrounded by comparable people — by the time we had finished our STEM PhDs with JDs she couldn’t impregnate. We operated under the impression we had more time than we did. My cousin spent 18 years at Leo Burnett working her way up to ExVP. She married for the first time two years ago with the professed desire to begin a family at age 40. Cousin appeared genuinely shocked that she… Read more »

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

Perfect example of why I perceive “society” as something that is my enemy. I can’t think of any prominent things in my entire life where “society” has laid out any rules before me that were beneficial. It’s mostly been a series of things to avoid. Or lies to figure out and try to get around. As you found out – sometimes you figure out the lies too late. Depending on how old you are – and mostly where you and your wife are healthwise – reproductive science can still help you. If she has good eggs and you have good… Read more »

BadThinker
BadThinker
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

Birth Control is the death knell of a civilization. Smart women see that having kids is difficult, and humans don’t like difficult. Those smart women should have been having babies at 18 (or even younger), with smart grandmothers and aunts to help.

Dutch
Dutch
Reply to  BadThinker
1 year ago

Which touches on another issue, that having babies at 30 and 40 means that the parents are older while the kids grow up. Not as in touch with their culture, not as energized to entertain and discipline, and the supply of grandparents, aunts, and uncles is also generally a lot older and more out of it. Also does not set a good example when the time rolls around for the kids to start their own mating rituals. The penalties of late childbirth stack up across the parents’ and the children’s entire lives.

Vizzini
Member
Reply to  DraveckysHumerus
1 year ago

My condolences. You sound like the opening scene of Idiocracy come to life. May God have mercy on your souls.

Badthinker
Badthinker
Reply to  Vizzini
1 year ago

I think Mike Judge has red pilled more dissidents than any meme or personality in our thing.

Frip
Member
Reply to  Badthinker
1 year ago

Have you ever been in a low IQ white town? Or poor white part of town? If you’re there for long enough it starts to get scary. It’s different than the typical ghetto, whose people still look and act fairly normal for who they are. These whites are grotesquely unattractive. Odd body shapes. Eyes are either disturbed or dull. This was the reality even before the meth/opium problems. There’s probably some theory as to why super poor whites are so odd. Probably something about how the hyper-ugly can’t marry up or whatever. Once I stopped at a Kmart in Poor… Read more »

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  Frip
1 year ago

Frip touches on a visceral objection that whites have to an ethnostate: I don’t want my destiny bound to the low IQ.

Not too long ago I felt no tribalism so I understand the objection. My feelings began to change when I realized we have to assemble a large, cohesive group to fight the anti-whites. These feelings have grown into how I feel towards low-functioning family members.

In a white ethnostate we can deal firmly with the stupid or criminal. For example, we could make long term state assistance dependent on mandatory birth control.

The Last Stand
The Last Stand
Reply to  Frip
1 year ago

As an ethnic nationalist, I chose to love the entirety of my people. In our own state, the problem will sort itself out. Use of the death penalty, restrictions on welfare, and marriage licenses only to the mentally competent are the way to go. I will say this. When I took the military intelligence test, I scored in the 99th percentile. One of the guys in my boot camp platoon scored in the 33rd percentile. He was still one of the most dependable and determined men I have seen. He handled the stress just fine and turned out to be… Read more »

Calsdad
Calsdad
Reply to  The Last Stand
1 year ago

As one of my brothers-in-law likes to say about some of the not so intelligent friends he has from back in his high school days: “somebody has to pick up the trash”. I’ve known a number of white men over the years that I did not consider to be all that intelligent. But the fact of the matter is that I’d still rather live next to them – than in a town full of blacks – even if they tested higher on the IQ scale. I’ve met plenty of “dumb” white guys who – as you point out – were… Read more »

Vizzini
Member
Reply to  Frip
1 year ago

If you think any of this sounds el asitist or prissy you haven’t done hard time in these places. Oh, bullcrap. I live in one of the poorest Appalachian counties in the nation. I run into people — usually older people — whose dialect is so thick I practically need a translator. Yeah, a lot of these people aren’t pretty or well-spoken, they’re the left-behinds of an economic boom that ended 120 years ago. But your characterization is entirely elitist and prissy. People out here would walk five miles to give you the shirt off their backs if you needed… Read more »

Frip
Member
Reply to  Vizzini
1 year ago

Vizzini. There are different types of down & out whites. You seem to be describing more country folk. I get you on that. I worked with factory guys in deep south for a few years, and have family roots there. I know all about Shirt off His Back Jimbo. Anyway, no need to romanticize it TOO much. I’ve seen our Jimbo screw people over too. Once we get our ethnostate figured out, I definitely think enforced birth control and some form of eugenics have to be considered. And I’m not that prissy. I used to eat dinner watching Faces of… Read more »

Vizzini
Member
Reply to  Frip
1 year ago

You also going to have forced breeding for Harvard elitists who think their lives are too busy and exciting to clutter up with kids?

Lineman
Lineman
Reply to  Frip
1 year ago

Which goes to show you welfare is harmful to everyone it touches…

Outis
Outis
1 year ago

Z you are conflating Artificial General Intelligence research (AGI) with the current state of the art in machine learning systems. The current state of the art IS good enough to wipe out millions of jobs with few replacement jobs on the horizon. The GIG economy is real as people look for anything to put food on the table. The difference is that “the anything” pays a fraction of what they used to make or expected to make after graduating with their overpriced college degree. The current GIG economy is an excellent example of a small # of tech oligarchs skimming… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Outis
1 year ago

Outis, thank you. Nice insight on AI. Yeah, AI sucks—but it’s currently damn good enough to fuck over 20-40% of the work force in the next 20 years. 🙁

Samuel Adams
Samuel Adams
1 year ago

A half dozen years ago was working on a project that required a lot of time in Silicon Valley. One of the senior guys at the software vendor was the former Sharepoint project manager in his MS days. We were discussing the lousy integration of acquisitions like Yammer to the Office platform. He explained that most of Office still runs on code base and architecture from the 90s and the attempts to integrate across Yammer or One Note end up creating software that is the code equivalent of the creatures on the Island of Dr. Moreau. And only getting worse.… Read more »

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  Samuel Adams
1 year ago

I wonder how many software professionals read this blog. I’m seeing many on this post. I’m one.

Lineman
Lineman
Reply to  LineInTheSand
1 year ago

It sounds like a lot of office people read this blog so I would guess that quite a few deal in software…

Tars_Tarkusz
Member
1 year ago

The pace of increasing computer speed has slowed dramatically in the last 20 years. Though I understand it is more complicated than this, from 1982 to 2000, computer clock speeds increased more than 250 times. From 4.77mhz to a gigahertz around the year 2000. Clock speeds got 250 times faster in the 18 years form 1982 to 2000 and have only increased about 5 times in last 18 years. They have partially offset this by using multiple cores. But all other things being equal, it is better to have 1 8ghz core than 4 2ghz cores. Processing has certainly gotten… Read more »

Moran ya Simba
Moran ya Simba
1 year ago

I think discussing if AI will ‘be like human minds, w real intelligence’ is to get hung up on semantics. I have myself wondered if there is anything more to AI than many parallel optimization codes w good data feed and that does not exactly sound like minds in the making. But that’s not the point. Extremely powerful new technology is coming forward and it will change a lot. No one knows exactly how. I think Z underestimates here. I think AI will be something of a game changer, in civilian life and in war.

Vizzini
Member
1 year ago

For most of human history, things were relatively static. Millennia went by between world-changing inventions Domestication of animals, 12-15,000 B.C. Cultivation, ~9,500 B.C. Wheel, 4,500 B.C. Smelting, ~3,500 B.C. (actual development of smelting spread slowly over thousands of years, but this is the beginning of the “Bronze Age.” The Iron Age represents simply an incremental improvement in metallurgy.) Gutenburg Press, 1439. First practical steam engine, 1712. And right there, the last puzzle piece fell into place. Man finally had portable, reliable power that wasn’t limited by the biggest most muscular animals he could get to work together. Things started taking… Read more »

Tars_Tarkusz
Member
Reply to  Vizzini
1 year ago

This is a nice story, but not really accurate. There was water power and wind powered factories before the steam engine. There are and were giant textile factories all over England going way back before the 18th century. Machine shops, lumber, flour milling. wood shops. They were just using mechanical power and not electric power. The steam engine allowed things like railroads to appear. Once the steam engine was widespread, the factories could be built anywhere, but the way factories worked was more or less exactly the same with mechanical power transferred by belts or gears.

WalkingHorse
WalkingHorse
1 year ago

As a developer and systems architect, I have lived through two waves of what I’ll call exuberant optimism about “AI”. We are in the throes of the third. In the two prior instances, “AI” was grossly oversold and the resultant letdown swept the snake oil salesmen off to other exploits, usually “failing up”. There have been a few notable successes in automation and “big data”, but they area all predicated upon having simplified the operating environment for the “AI” to the point that it may be more or less fully characterized. Constraining the environment leads to a tractable set of… Read more »

Vizzini
Member
Reply to  WalkingHorse
1 year ago

The best existing candidates are warehouses and other constrained environments where power can be made available as a predictable part of the environment. Warehouse bots have been around for a long time. Back in the ’90s, the newspaper I worked at had robotic machines for transporting and loading the giant paper rolls for the presses. They received signals when the press needed paper, and could go and find the rolls where they were stored on the press floor, carry them over to the press and load them in. Obviously they were not humanoid. This type of job — any sort… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Vizzini
1 year ago

Not sure robots or AI automation need be smarter than a human. It need only be a percentage as good as a human. For example, a sorting system that removes unwanted/bad parts. Whereas a line of a dozen human sorters now is replaced by a shorter line of say 6 sorters that look over the parts passed by the new AI system. Workforce reduction, 50%!

WalkingHorse
WalkingHorse
Reply to  Vizzini
1 year ago

I am aware of the warehouse robots you mention. I am thinking of the next step up in levels of competency – being able to deal with a few of the untidy things human ware-housemen do. [My first ‘real job’ after matriculation had robots in the late 1970′ s – one delivered mail to the various engineering offices and did mail/package pickup: “Gus”. Others were employed in the chip manufacturing front-ends.]

rkb100100
Member
1 year ago

AI are machine adaptive pattern recognition algorithms that have been around for years. The practical applications back in the day were simple manufacturing inspections, voice recognition and some pie in the sky ideas called artificial neural networks. The broad goal of this technology was never to rule the world but to improve upon a machines ability to refine current data with instances of new raw data for use in pattern detection tasks and simple predictive tasks. It offers great promise since computer processing power has become so cheap – medical applications and diagnostic improvements are particularly of interest. You are… Read more »

Pat Hines
Pat Hines
1 year ago

In the late 1960s, I worked for a three letter agency collecting electronic intelligence. We had various really sophisticated pieces of hardware, about 80% of which actually worked as advertized. We had to manually force that level.

One of the really “cool” things was an automatic tracking piece of hardware which used signal strength (appropriate software wasn’t invented yet) to cause the antennae to track the target (a satellite).

It never worked.

Roger U
Reply to  Pat Hines
1 year ago

What’s happened to Identity Dixie?

King Tut
King Tut
1 year ago

Who says we’re not advancing? Look, we’ve got gay penguins now! What could be better? Pozzed wildlife, yes! Real progress.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-27405652

Frip
Member
1 year ago

Can’t help but post the best metal song ever on topic.

We’ve taken too much for granted
And all the time it had grown
From techno seeds we first planted
Evolved a mind of its own

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR7Ft1AyeRI

Sean Detente
Sean Detente
Member
1 year ago

There’s a quite a few commercials for AI on Japanese broadcast television. Mostly ignore them because they’re in line with so much other sponsored crap – endless car commercials and spots trumpeting some icon of Japanese industry. Hitachi has their own AI product they’re hawking, and they’re also the main sponsor of a family show called Sazae-San (somewhat equivalent to early-mid ‘90s Simpson’s but with a heavy quaint dose of Leave it to Beaver). So, you get 20 minutes of watching a somewhat-traditional Japanese family show, then Hitachi pontificating about increasing efficiency in avocado distribution with their AI system (white… Read more »

Wonka
Wonka
1 year ago

I dont know if someone already pointed it out (writing this with 218 comments already, lazy to search), but there’s already code production outsourcing to Africa: Egypt and Tunisia… For the automotive industry that I’m 100% sure of… maybe other type of code making already being done there… cheaper than India…

Member
1 year ago

AI is going to come from either military research or academic research. Corporate programming is for cheap Asian hacks. However, AI doesn’t have to be all that intelligent to change the world. It only needs to be as smart as Watson to run expert databases, and not nearly that smart to run manufacturing robots.

William Harford
Member
1 year ago

I have to confess, I am intrigued by the apparent paradox that those who, on the face of it, seem to be the cohort that promotes the concept of a ‘benevolent’ rule by an Artificial Intelligence deemed superior to any offered biologically also seem to be utterly opposed to any available metric of evaluating intelligence in mankind being used as an indicator of ability in general.

Frank
Frank
1 year ago

sorry I am late to the discussion. Now that I have been retired for a month, I do not spend very much time online. I worked for a year trying to build an expert system using IBM Watson. Honestly, it was a very frustrating experience. We worked with something like 1 person at IBM who seemed to understand how it really worked. We achieved perhaps an 85% accuracy rate for the system to answer complex healthcare policy questions. Our helpers from IBM thought that was very good. For me, I figured it had to be something like 98% in order… Read more »

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  Frank
1 year ago

I hope you keep commenting Frank.

Oscar Berg
Oscar Berg
1 year ago

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