The Evolution of War

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The first men to go to war with men from another tribe no doubt went to that first battle with the weapons they used to hunt. We have no record of that first battle, but we can safely assume it involved spears, clubs and probably rocks. It is possible that the throwing rock was developed just for these battles, as the thrown rock is much more effective against men than animals. The throwing rock is probably the first weapon developed just for killing other men.

One day a group of men decided to raid the territory of another tribe and they were met with a terrifying new weapon, the bow and arrow. Again, we have no idea when this happened, but logic says there was a first time use for the bow in war. A group sorted out how to launch a small version of their spear at an animal. This was much safer than getting up close and personal. The next logical step was to use this cool new weapon against invaders from another tribe.

Maybe it was the sling or maybe it was the bow, but most likely it was the fear of projectile weapons that led to the shield and the use of it. Shields are useful against spears, but they limit offensive ability. Again, we will never know, but most likely there was a first battle where the shield was used. The guys with bows were stunned to see this new terrifying weapon. Instead of raining death down on their enemy, their enemy was able to advance under the cover of their shields.

We are seeing this playout in Ukraine. The Russians are probably the world’s best at tank strategy. They have a lot of them and they have always been at the top in terms of tank technology. Russia is a land power, so it makes sense that they are the best with the dominant weapons of land warfare. In the Second World War it was the T-34 that beat back the Nazis and drove them back to Berlin. It remains the most popular tank in the world, despite being 80-years old.

The terrifying counter is the anti-tank weapon. The concept is pretty simple. You launch a missile at a tank that can penetrate its armor. The trick is either in hitting the tank from beyond its range or getting close enough to hit it from a blind spot. This is where the modern anti-tank weapons have become so important. The Javelin system allows a team of two to get close, fire from cover and take out a tank. The weapon is cheap and it can be used by the dumbest infantrymen.

The effects of this weapon are clear in Ukraine. Instead of leading with their armor, the Russians have been forced to use artillery and cruise missiles to soften up the line of contact and then use infantry to clear the way for tanks. This has not made the tank obsolete, but it has forced a change in its use. It now has to be deployed initially as a stand-off weapon, like an artillery piece. Instead of being the tip of the spear for ground forces, it is now a follow on weapon.

As an aside, this is a good example of the knock-on effect. Since the anti-tank weapon neutralizes the tank, the counter is the use of artillery. In the second Chechen war and now in Ukraine, the Russians are relying on their massive artillery advantage, which is turning the defensive positions into rubble. In other words, the Ukrainians will still lose and they will have their cities reduced to dust. The anti-tank weapon is making war bloodier and costlier to the civilian population.

The West thinks this is all good news, but there is bad news for the Global American Empire in Ukraine. For starters, the Russians have had the chance to test their S-400 surface-to-air missile system against serious opposition. It turns out to be as lethal as advertised, able to take out aircraft from over 250-miles away. It is cheap, mobile and easy to deploy in a wide range of conditions. It is to American air power what the Javelin missile system is to Russian tank warfare.

The American way of war is to gain air superiority and then pound the enemy from the sky until their mobility and communications are broken. Then the ground forces come in to attack the weakened enemy positions. The S-400 suddenly turns those 100-million dollar aerial weapons platforms into expensive target practice. Since these systems are cheap and getting cheaper, they will proliferate. It is why America threatens every country that buys them with sanctions.

That is not the only bad news. The Russians have been testing what the media is calling a hypersonic missile. The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-to-surface system is probably not a hypersonic weapon, given the technical issues involved with the technology, but that does not matter. It is fast enough, lethal enough and cheap enough to pose a serious problem for a sea power like America. The ability to strike a relatively small target from over a thousand miles away is a game changer.

The reason this is important is it means those carriers America relies upon to project air power will quickly become expensive target practice. Some have argued that this has already happened with land-based anti-ship weapons, but that is disputed. This new system ends the debate. If America wants to deploy carriers to protect Taiwan, they will soon need to find a way to make them invisible. Otherwise, they are billion dollar monuments to man’s innovative nature.

Of course, these innovations that are neutralizing the strengths of great power militaries are not new. The grinding deadlock of the Great War was due, in part, to the ability of all sides to neutralize offensive weapons, other than artillery. Both sides were left to pound one another from extensive trench systems. In this age, it means both sides are left with stand-off systems like missiles. It also makes the use of nuclear weapons more attractive as a way to break the deadlock.

This being the modern age, the trenches will be virtual. America launched the equivalent of a race to the sea by breaking all promises and declaring financial war on the Russian economy. The Russians have responded but have yet to launch their best financial weapons. China and India are now joining the fight, America has announced sanctions on China in response. Instead of trench war, this century’s great war will mean barriers to trade and capital.

Instead of reducing Europe to a moonscape, it will bring about a global depression that will set off unknown consequences. The world will have a food shortage this year due to the halt of agricultural products from Russia. Energy prices are rising, which will amplify the inflation pressure. Like the Great War, we are about to enter a test of wills where all sides try to bring the other to the breaking point economically. Washington is betting you can starve longer than Russians or Chinese.


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349 thoughts on “The Evolution of War

  1. I read this piece in bewilderment. I can’t understand how the Z-man can be so ignorant of modern warfare, yet address the subject with the same didactic tone as he does everything else. Let’s begin:

    >the thrown rock is much more effective against men than animals.

    Why would that be the case? One could easily imagine that it’s actually easier to just throw a rock at a dear than run to it and hit it in the head.

    >They have a lot of them and they have always been at the top in terms of tank technology.

    They haven’t. They went for a quantity over quality approach. During the Cold War, their tanks were always one step behind technologically to the west. The only noticeable exception was the T-64, which featured a lot of revolutionary technology.

    >The terrifying counter is the anti-tank weapon. The concept is pretty simple. You launch a missile at a tank that can penetrate its armor.

    It’s really unclear here whether Z is narrowing the concept of anti-tank weaponry to modern ATGMs out of crass ignorance or just to keep the textual flow.

    >The trick is either in hitting the tank from beyond its range or getting close enough to hit it from a blind spot.

    Up until very recently, “hitting from beyond a tank’s range” was not really in the books for men-operated ATGMs. “Hitting from a blind spot” is not why ATGM and RPG operators get close to tanks. The problem is they are firing relatively slow, for the most part relatively weak projectiles that need to be aimed at the softer bits of a tank. The Javelin, which is arguably a 2000’s era weapon (i.e. recent) is outstanding precisely because of its incredibly high effective range (2,6 km).

    >The effects of this weapon are clear in Ukraine. Instead of leading with their armor, the Russians have been forced to use artillery and cruise missiles to soften up the line of contact and then use infantry to clear the way for tanks.

    What you are describing here is the basic combined arms doctrine applied extensively since WWII. The big tank push was indeed very common during WWII (and successfully applied as late as the Gulf War) but also very geography-dependent. The first time tanks got mauled by ATGMs was in the 6th day war, and you might have noticed how armies continued to use them long after 1973. The problem with what the Russians have been doing is that they failed to properly implement doctrines already in place. Anti-tank ambushes are VERY vulnerable to modern air assets and very easy to spot in advance. Most infantry AT teams still need vehicles to move around, after all.

    >It is cheap, mobile and easy to deploy in a wide range of conditions.

    The S-400 is ridiculously expensive, even for a long range SAM system (which are expensive stuff). The rockets it fires might be cheaper than an F-16; but most generals would consider 2-3 aircraft losses for the destruction of an S-400 complex a more-than-fair trade. NATO is extremely adept at taking out LRAAM sites; and S-400s aren’t exactly the VW Beatle of weaponry.

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  3. The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is most definitely a hypersonic missile. Hypersonic is defined as Mach 5 or faster, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal has a stated top speed of Mach 10 in its fastest configuration.

    Further, the Russian Army has a HEAT missile that is better than Javelin; longer range and faster. Ukrainian tanks are almost gone, replacements are NOT available.

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  5. This isn’t the salient point of Z’s essay, but I feel the need to counter the premise that the Soviets were in the forefront of tank design and armored warfare. The Soviets had Stalin plotting grand strategy–establishing a sphere of influence once the Nazi regime had been defeated. And the Soviets had sound military strategists such as Zhukov, Konev and Rokossovsky, who could not only match the abilities of the likes of Manstein and Model, but
    could prevail in costly but not quite Pyrrhic victories versus the Wehrmacht. (It is often quoted that the Red Army inflicted over 80% of the losses suffered by the Axis forces, without mentioning that it also incurred about 95% of the Allies’ losses in doing so). As for the T-34, its suspension and angled hull design were the brainchild of one J. Walter Christie, whose prototypes were rejected by U.S. Army, Inc. but not by the Soviets. The BT-3 gave way to the T-34, which at the time was well-armed, well-armored and well-shaped ballistically. But… it was also a death trap for its crews. The 76mm-armed models were often crudely manufactured, they had no turret “basket,” and ammunition stowage was potentially hazardous–ammo rather than fuel fires are the most destructive elements for tanks and crews. The 85mm-armed T-34s were a big improvement, but Soviet tank and crew losses were nonetheless. enormous. It is estimated that whereas about 85% of Anglo-American crews survived the war, about 75% of Soviet crews did not (that figure DOES seem a bit high to me). Soviet crews also seemed to like the much-maligned Sherman “emcha” (M4) tank, used largely against Japan’s Kwantung Army in the Far East. The Soviets had trouble upgrading the 1920s-era diesel engine of the T-34, and stole a set of blueprints for the British Chieftain’s 700hp engine, the most unreliable powerplant amongst NATO’s tanks. Oops! I don’t know much about the Armata line of vehicles, but Soviet/Russian AFVs seem to lack the protective features that the West takes for granted. Long story short, the Russians may have good strategic minds, but the historic reliance on massive firepower and the reluctance to use it (a’ la Grozny) may have given those of us in the West the idea that Russia can lose this war and Ukraine can win it–without bothering to define what those criteria may look like.

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    • You are correct in your assessment of the T-34, but remember:

      – It was designed to be built by people who had never worked in a factory, much less those who had seen a tank.
      – It was designed to be maintained by men (and women) who may have never seen an automobile or tractor, much less a tank, before they joined the Army.
      – They could be churned out faster than the Germans could produce their tanks.
      – The T-34 and its companion KV-1 stunned the crap out of the German Panzer crews and outclassed their Panzer II, III, and IV tanks. Only better German tactics (Killing your foremost armored warfare generals in a political purge will do that), the mechanical unreliability of the early T-34 and KV-1, and the vaunted Krupp 88 used in anti-tank mode kept the balance to the German side in Barbarossa.

      The Soviets with the T-34 and the US with the M4 Sherman followed the concept of quantity over quality. Both the T-34 and M4’s had good qualities (Relative reliability [especially compared to later German tanks], easy to produce and maintain, adaptable to improvements [bigger gun, bigger turret, improved engines, new suspension, etc.], and good speed and maneuverability), that were often offset by shortcomings (Crude build quality, thin armor, being surpassed by newer enemy designs with no replacement in sight).

      But they were there, they were there in numbers that surpassed the Germans, and the US and Soviets could “make good” their losses either through recovery and repair of damaged vehicles or brand new vehicles off the factory line in the way the Germans could not. And don’t forget the Soviets brought forth the IS/JS (Joseph Stalin, it’s good to be the king, er, General Secretary, you get stuff named after you) series of tanks when the Panthers and Tigers showed up. American, British and Soviet air superiority made being a German tanker a losing proposition later in the war as well.

      Interestingly the US and USSR diverged in their strategies in tank design and production. The US went for high quality designs which meant fewer, but better tanks while the Soviets stayed with the “Quantity has a quality all its own” approach. (T-72 vs. M1 Abrams)

      I agree with your closing assessment. Who knows what a “win” or “loss” will be?

      • Quite right. I wanted to include some of the points you made, but my comment was becoming rather lugubrious; editing has never been one of my strengths. Thanks.

  6. I’m surprised to see the Russian tanks holding up. During the first Desert Storm they were annihilated by American helicopters and general weaponry.

      • Their tanks are still “soviet era” as is American tanks are still “cold war era”. They’ve been updated and improved. Why change what most obviously works? Same with the U2 spy plane and B52 bombers. Mid-20th century basis for technology, but still used AFAIK.

    • Some were even destroyed by BRADLEYS–the TOW-armed Infantry- and Cavalry Fighting Vehicles s well as by Abrams and M60 tanks.

  7. ” Washington is betting you can starve longer than Russians or Chinese.”

    The US may or may not starve longer but the West will certainly starve sooner.

    I don’t know about the Chinese but Russia won’t be short Fertilizer or Grain and won’t be starving in the near future.

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    • And to think just a few short decades ago we the USA! were the breadbasket to the world; now we cannot even grow enough to feed ourselves; but we can grow China’s corn and soybeans. Aren’t our Overlords wonderful and beneficent?

  8. I don’t remember a war where it was this hard to tell what is really happening. It is common for both sides to claim to be winning but very rare that it is not clear who actually is. Information is truly being weaponized.

    As for kinetic weapons, I think the trend is ‘smaller is stronger’. Man-portable missiles are beating tanks, small drones are beating huge, advanced air defense systems. This trend will probably continue. Drones will get smaller and come in swarms. Russia, with its large legacy military, seems to be behind the curve here. They are still infatuated with tanks just like the US is with aircraft carriers. Traditional militaries tend to be too conservative. It is instructive that Turkey, with a huge military full of huge hand-me-down weapons, is at the cutting edge of drone warfare. China’s strategy for countering the US Navy in the Pacific is also decidedly asymmetrical; missiles and drones instead of carriers and fighters. I think both the US and Russia may be somewhat hampered by having huge, prestigious legacy militaries that were decisive in the last great power war. Both are largely fielding modern, high tech versions of the weapons that won WW2. These old platforms are being mastered by new species of weapons that didn’t even exist before the 1970s and have come a long way since then.

    There is an interesting analogy to politics; both Russian and American brass have a hard time giving up their ships and tanks. Just like older conservatives have a hard time giving up civnat style patriotism. It is hard for old dogs to learn new tricks.

    • Simba: “I don’t remember a war where it was this hard to tell what is really happening.”

      Agree. Biased Western outlets put the number of Russian dead from 7K to 15K. This is hard to fathom. I’d say the number is more like 1K to 2K. But then I suck at math and can barely work a revolver.

      • 15k would be fantastically impressive numbers for the Uke’s to pull off. Their military, even the based Asov Battalion (or whatever these buttholes call themselves) were never considered decent.

      • It’s fairly simple, from what I gather. Hell, I heard the Chinese outright stole their training simulator for it from a videogame called ” Children of a Dead Earth”. You could e en simulate it in Kerbal Space Program.

        • China, India and the US have done the same. Satellites are easy to spot and fly in predictable paths. It bears no relation to how you fight an infantry battle.

      • And you’re exactly the kind of idiot that loses wars these days. Russia has the best missiles in the world, the US used to have the best air force. That is of marginal value in a land war against scattered infantry and insurgents. Which is why the Vietnam, Iraq and several Afghanistan wars went the way they did.

    • The Turkish fellow who set up their main drone shop is a pretty smart guy who holds an MS from UPenn and MIT.

      His UPenn MS was about:

      “His master’s degree research involved a successful demonstration of air–ground coordination of UAVs in formation flight alongside territorial robot teams.”

      That was back in 2004. That project landed him a full-ride to MIT to pursue further autonomous vehicle research.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sel%C3%A7uk_Bayraktar

      On top of that, he’s even married into Erdogan’s family.

      • I didn’t know that. It probably only takes a few genuinely smart guys, supported by a group of competent engineers, to set this up. India could become the world leader in this if they got their act together.

        The biggest obstacle is probably the conservatism of the brass and bureacracy. They want more of the old stuff, ‘that we know works.’ In the 19th century they were against first breech-loaders and then repeating rifles because they were afraid troops would waste too much ammo. The US Navy always wants another supercarrier and the Russians have tried to inaugurate a new generation of main battletanks with the T-14. Left to their own devices, old colonels and generals will try to perfect the bow and arrow before trying out a rifle.

        • Too much ammo used is sound military thinking odd as it seems.

          When your logistics is at best horse carts or slow unreliable trucks maybe in a few areas trains, having ammo shortages do to a high rate of fire is a real concern.

          Logistics win wars .

      • Something that may have helped Turkey rise to the top in drone warfare is that Erdogan, as an islamist, is traditionally hostile to the brass of the Turkish military. Since Ataturk, the military has always been the check on islamist tendencies. They almost used a repeated Pinochet model, only against islamists instead of marxists.

        The curtailed prestige and power of the old brass may be why they decided to try something cutting edge instead of continuously upgrading their obsolescent M-60 tanks.

    • “Drones will get smaller and come in swarms.” Scariest thing I’ve read in a long while. Thanks man. Think I’m gonna make myself another drink.

      • Super-charged EMP weapons to the rescue. And when they get powerful enough, we’re back to the 19th century.

      • Google Slaughterbots if you aren’t going to sleep any time soon.

        There are defenses against such things but they lead to just what Moran said, back to the 19th century since the only logical thing is to EMP the enemy city and send in extermination swarms.

        Thus I have to have the same capacity and we know where that leads,

    • “Traditional militaries tend to be too conservative.”

      Generals and Admirals always fight the last war. To be fair that’s the frame of reference they have.

      • Exactly The only real way to combat that is to push officers out after 20-25 years no matter what rank they achieve.

        However given the way promotions work, its hard to keep them from promoting the guy below them who is most like them. It may not work.

  9. “How long can a society last which deliberately undermines normalcy?”

    Not very. And that’s the whole purpose of it.

    • so the maniacs in charge burn up all the existing mechanism of societal management. then what. do they think they just become lord and lady of the manor? that organic replacements they have no control over don’t sprout up? i agree they are destroying the current system intentionally, but don’t see any way they remain in charge afterwards. just the opposite, i see the current ruling class being annihilated.

      • They are so used to it, I honestly think they are unable to see that even as an option.

        And at the moment, no matter what crimes they do they are untouchable by any institutional mechanism, have the full force of the state available almost on a personal whim, so why would they not feel like that?

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    • But they’ve already done that. It’s why I find the typical conservative mindset of applying profit motive to everything infuriating. A special ed kid who took over the short bus isn’t looking to maximize his profit by running a limo service; he’s a tard out joyride. These assholes really don’t understand what they’re doing.

  10. Zman: “The American way of war is to gain air superiority and then pound the enemy from the sky until their mobility and communications are broken. Then the ground forces come in to attack the weakened enemy positions.”

    Or. The American way of war is to gain air superiority and then pound the enemy from the sky until their mobility and communications are broken. Then the ground forces come in and hand out Twinkies.

  11. I predict small arms anti-tank weapons will start to fail very soon, as they are designed to exploit an enemy trying to avoid civilian casualties in urban combat. Russia will not treat Kiev like Mariupol, because they know now that Ukraine is using fascist fanatics who will not surrender to garrison the cities. You cannot reason with them and it’s futile trying to save civilians under their grasp.

    Autonomous drones and strategic hypersonic missiles are the real innovations in this war, not the small arms missiles.

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    • Probably the most cost-effective way to counter drones is to have helium balloons tethered with acoustic sensors (drones will make some noise even those engineered for less sound) and either microwave or laser comms with each other, each having a wire communication to the base station. With dedicated marksmen in trees or other cover taking out a drone with direction finding help.

      This can kill even autonomous non-radio-controlled drones. There is no substitute for the infantryman and marksmanship.

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      • in your mind drones are RC model airplanes, aren’t they?. and of course those helium balloons (with mouse ears?) won’t be shot down by the other side. what color is the sky in your world, buckaroo?

        • Things Whiskey thinks about at 3AM when the rest of us are sound asleep: helium balloons tethered with acoustic sensors. microwave comms. dedicated marksmen in trees.

          Love it.

          Hungus: “in your mind drones are RC model airplanes, aren’t they?. and of course those helium balloons (with mouse ears?) won’t be shot down by the other side. what color is the sky in your world, buckaroo?”

          LOL

          This place is awesome.

      • “dedicated marksmen in trees or other cover taking out a drone”

        You want to take out small drones with sniper rifles? There’s a reason birds are usually hunted with shotguns, not rifles.

        • Also drones can be programmed to jink your aim quite easily. You’d be better with an autonomous gun in said trees that kills anything that enters the area and can predict and move faster

    • Its kind of nice seeing the communist block housing in Maripol getting destroyed. Nice to see that history of shit getting removed.

  12. Re, Trump’s lawsuit against Hillary. The juicy stuff is at the bottom. The Garland run Attorney General’s office has indicted Clinton team people and has continued to fund the Durham investigation. Likely it will be quite useful to “get” Hillary by the Brandon/Obama team running things now.

    Which is why I guess Trump is still a free man, and alive. He is for the moment useful to Obama/Brandon and they see their main threat Hillary! who seems to have half the CIA and FBI working for her.

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  13. Look at the conflict in the Ukraine as an excellent way to test modern U.S. ground weapons technology against a near peer military power without risking U.S. soldiers. You can bet that lots of bright people are collecting data. Forget about silly she-male Admirals and crying Generals, they are window dressing.

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    • No, they are as stupid as they appear. Navy ships and subs can’t stop colliding with other ships or underwater mountains. Dry docked ships are set on fire by gay-panicked sailors. Afghanistan was a mess and a rout, no doubt about it.

      Its Woke all the way down. There is no competent inner party. There wasn’t under Pol Pot, or Mao, or Stalin, or Brezhnev. And where oh where will new weapons come from? Harvey Mudd and MIT and CalTech are now all fully woke. Filled with “stem adjacent” woke black girls who displace the smart guys.

      This is a three front war: 1. Against fossil fuels for Green Fantasies; 2. Against White people and White males; 3. Against Russia/Putin.

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      • “Afghanistan was a mess and a rout, no doubt about it.”

        I have my doubts about this. The mess” part, yes. The “rout” part, well, I have my doubts. I can’t disagree point blank, but I have my doubts.

        Otherwise, great post.

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        • I immediately started to wonder if there was a tacit agreement with the Taliban that the “abandoned” weaponry and such were their’s for the taking if they use it to stir shit against Russia and China. Not the first time the Borg has used islamist fanatics against perceived enemies of the Borg.

          Of course, there were also all of those unvetted Afghani young men of military age being flown to the US, too. Maybe they perceive them as useful in the Borg’s war on normality right here in River City? Whaddya think, pilgrims?

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          • Tacit? No. The military making an effort to bring stuff back at all is relatively new. Prior to the ’80s, stuff shipped overseas would be lucky to make it back Stateside, since it was obviously cheaper and easier to just dump it on the ocean. Logistics is king in any war. It’s hard and takes months to years to remove that much materiel from a theater. Considering the pullout happened in a matter of months, no way they were bringing everything back.

  14. Niall Ferguson (occasional bad thinker married to IIRC some Somali woman who was a minor bad thinker) has an op-ed in Bloomberg. His takeaways: 1. Brandon etc. are committed to total regime change in Russia, maybe also China, and will not relent. 2. Brandon etc. aim to bleed Russia dry as in Afghanistan via constant weapons.

    For point 2 first, the CIA World factbook informs me that Ukraine has only 2 million men ages 15-24. That its TFR is 1.5 (compared to Russia’s bad but better 1.75 and has actually INCREASED over the past ten years). That the median age of the mother at first birth is 26. The population is 70% urban. The idea that educated, urban, OLD (mostly middle aged and pensioners) populations that are Western not non-White, non-Western, tribal with 15 cousins, would fight like a non White, non Western tribal people is laughable. Even worse, the HBD’ers at Sailers who should know better cling to this hopium fantasy. Its pretty sad people who know intellectually that the media lies on everything still trust them.

    Point 1 — Putin (and Xi, also it seems at this point a target for regime change, see MBS in Saudi and Modi in India and AMLO in Mexico — the FT has hated him in particular for years) being the target of Regime change has his own counter-regime change weapons in place. The bad guys in WWII had blacks in Harlem dressed up as Mustache guy, and the Japanese Imperial intelligence funded first the Moorish Temple then Nation of Islam to try and forment a civil war in the US. The US then being 89% White, 10% black, 1% everything else was able to crush this at the cost of fragging incidents involving black troops against White ones, and a riot against Whites in Detroit in 1943, Philly also the same year. Not to mention an open borders, “refugees” as weapons in the US and Europe, and Cartels eager to expand their rule into the US.

    Related, the elite system is starting to crack. White seniors in a tony Brentwood prep school who previously were admitted at 80% to UC failed to gain admittance entirely. University of California abandoned the SAT, AP scores, and just admitted all blacks. Feels good man. Tuition is 60K a year and runs six years. These are not the billionaires or even millionaires, but their doctors, lawyers, accountants, and their kids just got pushed to Santa Monica City College, and an exciting career in the fast food industry. As Z-Man noted, every revolution requires some part of elites to side with it. It also generally requires outside support of some kind.

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    • The total fertility rate in Ukraine was actually 1.2 in 2021, and birth data is showing another 17% YOY decline for the first month of 2022.

      It’s possible the real fertility rate is quite a bit higher since the Ukrainian population estimates are way higher than actual, and there are also many emigrants who have children in other countries. Either way, whether it’s 1.2, 1.5 or 1.7 it’s still far off of the 6-7 that’s normal in Afghanistan. And most of Ukraine’s young people live abroad anyways.

      The Babushkas who make up most of Ukraine’s countryside won’t be doing much fighting for either side, regardless of a few media propaganda bits. And Russia has a low birth rate too, but it’s higher than China, higher than Ukraine, higher than the EU. They have fewer emigrants. And they have way more meat shields willing to die for the cause. Unless Ukraine starts importing Kurds nobody is going to do much insurgency.

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      • Ukraine army is ~300k nearly as big as UK and France combined.

        Its airforce is 35k same size as the RAF.

        • How much of that is “real” though — its a place shot through with corruption. I know there was concern a few years ago about how few Britain had of combat jet pilots in the RAF, something like around 100. They likely also do not have many mechanics and in Ukraine I would be shocked if they had enough combat engineers, mechanics, etc. to keep planes flying, tanks and other vehicles moving, minefields cleared or laid down, etc. Pretty much all of Europe is suffering a shortage of White men and Ukraine’s size of only 2 million White guys of combat age is very significant. Their listed combat size of 300K is roughly 15% of the male combat age population. Does that even make sense?

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      • “Unless Ukraine starts importing Kurds nobody is going to do much insurgency.”

        Somebody else will do it for them. And thee are all those “abandoned” weapons in Afghanistan.

        • Insurgents need to eat too. There is no support for them locally and while they can steal some of the food, taking casualties in the process, they can only do that for a brief period of time

          An insurgency without local or foreign support gets stomped. Also Afghanistan is in the middle of a famine as in mass starvation. So its not a great source.

    • $360k to get into a jc, that has free tuition! well done sparkey, embrace the suck motherfukkers!! what goes around comes around, don’t cha know? how did you think it would go? OnlyFans awaits…

    • “2. Brandon etc. aim to bleed Russia dry as in Afghanistan via constant weapons.”

      And *that* is why I have my doubts that Afghanistan was the rout that it appeared to be.

    • “Niall Ferguson[‘s] … takeaways: 1. Brandon etc. are committed to total regime change in Russia, maybe also China, and will not relent. 2. Brandon etc. aim to bleed Russia dry as in Afghanistan via constant weapons.”

      He must read this blog! All of that has been said here. But he’s also the numbskull who “forecast”–what was it?–3 million dead in the States from the Chinkypox. He also broke the social distancing rules, if you recall.

      • I think Niall Ferguson is the historian, not Neil Ferguson the retarded coof fuckwit.

        Different guys.

  15. Ah. At least now we have a name for what the Zman has been regaling all and sundry about:

    We’re in a Cold Civil War.

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    • A Cold Civil War made up of various campaigns:

      a Cold Race War

      a Cold War on Whites ,and on “Whiteness” in all its manifestations

      a Cold War on Masculinity (which is always described as “toxic”) and on Men

      a Cold War on Sexual Normalcy

      and on the very idea of Normal

      a Cold War on Science, everywhere it conflicts with the sacred doctrines of wokeness

      a Cold War on American History, and on our Ancestors

      a Cold War on America As It Once Was….

      >>> Aren’t we seeing signs of this War everywhere we look?

      21
  16. Shortages? My understanding was that scarcity had been solved.

    One more plank on the End of History pyre…

  17. Vaccine war
    Meme war
    Banking war
    Cyber war
    Spy war
    Culture war

    And now…
    That “bruise under the eye” club?
    Harry Reid, GW Bush, Mitt Romney, “Pope” Francis, a whole cast of others?

    Apparently that comes from an occult ritual, “soul scalping”, by the same league of Abramovic spirit cooking and Ketanji Brown pizzagate. A needle is inserted under the eye.

    So now we can add…
    Demonic War!

    11
      • Why would anyone hate Jesus. Even people who think he’s fictional or not the Messiah can see he’s pretty cool.

  18. Our defense contractors remind me so much of our sick care system. Billions upon billions shoveled into the industry, with less and less results. A population that since 2014 has had average lifespans SHRINK while ever more billions are thrown into the black hole. While fat nurses dance on TicToc. It’s not just the MIC that’s broken. We have huge swaths of unproductive industry in “the private sector.” The country screams “let me die already!” The currency traders of the world will one day be the executioners, not Putin. All roads lead to the dollar. The tent pole in the middle of the circus tent.

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    • “All roads lead to the dollar. The tent pole in the middle of the circus tent.”

      (1) Russia is now demanding payment in rubles from European buyers of natgas. (2) Saudi Arabia is now accepting payment in yuan from China for crude. (3) Washington has conceived the brilliant idea of slapping sanctions on China. (4) Russia may move to a two-tier currency and back the *domestic* ruble with gold and let the *external* ruble float on ForEx markets. (South Africa had a two-tier currency at one point, so this does work.)

      Armstrong reports this morning that “RELIABLE [sic] sources” are reporting that Israel is very unhappy with Biden’s sanctions. So the power that can stop this madness is unhappy with the course of events.

      Will Israel issue the command to cease and desist? Will Washington obey that command?

      “The times, they are a-changin’.”

      15
  19. I dare say that conclusion is over dramatic. There will be no famine in AINO in the foreseeable future. On that, I’ll bet you dollars to donuts.

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    3
    • I’m sure anyone would bet dollars to donuts. On anything. Dollars are becoming pretty much worthless. At least you can eat donuts.

      24
    • A moderate famine would do wonders for the shambling mounds of visceral fat and lumbering hamplanets we call the Modern American.

      I can’t say I’d be totally against making calorie intake prohibitively costly, it is clear that these pigs are not going to stop gorging at the trough and break their addiction on their own. It would stop men from having to look abroad for a woman with less than 30BMI too. A win-win, in my book.

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      • Imagine the money we’d save by no longer having to deal with fat, black slobs scrambling to squeeze their lard asses through the doors of Golden Corral with EBT cards in hand.

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        • ” … fat, black slobs scrambling to squeeze their lard asses through the doors of Golden Corral with EBT cards in hand.”

          I just want you to know that that mental image will keep me awake tonight. Next time, post a warning up front.

        • there are lots of ‘vibrant’ obese female gladiator videos posting on the gab these days. entertaining in a ‘watch the trucks crash’ sort of way.

      • No it won’t. Hungry people are easy to weaponize . I’d rather the cartels of gangs not become the new leaders in urban areas or that mobs of people attack the suburbs.

    • “There will be no famine in AINO in the foreseeable future”

      Agreed. But the price of food may cause a kind of trouble not seen in AINO for 80-odd years.

      11
  20. I tend to focus on what the American people will do in a situation like that. As much as the media/political establishment will want to use these coming unfortunate events as a “unity” event, it will backfire in. a huge way. The media will attempt, in vain, to turn a hand full of twerking shanequas into the new Andrews Sisters. They’ll attempt to turn our culture into some cheesy Matt Damon WW2 movie, only where BIPOC finally gets to be the heroes of the story (unlike the 1940s).

    The reality on the ground will be a country that’s fractured beyond repair. There will be social media uploads of people getting blown away at a Shell station over a couple gallons of gas, or an old lady being punched in the face for her cart of groceries. We already see these, but it will be ubiquitous, not one offs. I see a lot of grocery theft videos coming in the next couple years. Many supermarkets will have to become pick-up only, with a security guard overseeing the process like some bank. It sure as hell won’t look like the 1940’s. It’ll look like a third world sh thole of desperate, stupid, and mostly dark people. The illusion of racial harmony will have its final breakdown in the coming era. But this is just a sliver of what we’ll see. There will be all kinds of social breakdown. Formerly upper middle class women in nice suburbs prostituting themselves. People selling their kids, and not just to Dave Rubin. It’ll go on and on.

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    • I don’t disagree with your description; but I think it will apply only to certain localities. Those of us fortunate enough to live far from centers of vibrancy will be spared. I can’t imagine that sort of insanity happening where I live.

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      • Distance matters, but that can change. Where I live, said ‘centers’ are 65 miles away. In the last year, those that represent the very “strength” of our nation have been on my dead end, breaking into vehicles, stealing one from my neighbor, used to ride around, then abandoned.

        Said strength of our nation was caught on video via my neighbor’s cameras, and I viewed them, delighted at how strong we were becoming, despite our distance from the center of diversity, our strength.

        More recently, the strengthening and diversity encouraging crime of stealing catalytic convertors came to our neighborhood. We know how much effort our strength partners put into this effort to strengthen our culture, as some of them were “arrested”, and the useful, helpful people of the 4th Estate listed their names and where they visited us from. They were promptly released, to return to their diverse base of strength and will be missed. Something about “bail reform”.

        As we undergo this exercise in strength, we had the benefit of two, not just one but two local sheriffs on our little road. They advised us that, in fact, the act of diverse persons trespassing on our property, rifling through our vehicles was “de-criminalized” and there was nothing they could do about it. They kindly took time to view my neighbor’s footage, and I must say they look very sharp in those crisp uniforms.

        When I raised the point regarding the “castle doctrine” in our state to our ‘back the blue’-deserving representatives of strength, the were impressive in their service-mindedness, reminding me that it was best to stay indoors if we were again the recipients of the gifts of strength as even raising a weapon at a window could bring charges against us.

        I did raise the point of, say my self, or worse daughter, mother or wife stumbled upon visiting diversity, strengthening us via their presence, could not events escalate beyond trespass, to assault, rape or murder, since our esteemed friends in law enforcement (or monitoring) stated such visits by our diversity were indeed no longer against the law? They shrugged.

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        • Oh, and when I spoke with my new neighbor, recently moved from the very center of the strength that had kindly come to visit us, and made a comment celebrating that very strength represented by the visit?

          My esteemed new neighbor man, truly nice people, had a blank look on his face. Went silent. Then apparently re-booted his mind to current narrative and went about looking at the screen where the strength was on his driveway, visiting.

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          • Clearly, my friend, you aren’t FAR ENOUGH away from the Vibrantly Diverse.

            And clearly, you’re living in a place where the consensus is on their side; and in such a situatikn, the local LE has little choice but to go along.

            Check out Joel Skousen’s ‘Strategic Relocation’ book, which distinguishes safe places from unsafe, should the current cold race war you’re describing ever heat up.

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            1
          • :Clearly, my friend, you aren’t FAR ENOUGH away from…”

            You are 100% correct, no argument here. In our time we have seen this place go from rural, to suburban, with tens of thousands of housing units built. It is now, quality of life-wise, becoming more “urban”.

            We have our escape planned and it includes increasing the distance from the diversity they tell is the “strength” of the nation. The process has been all about the “where”, but that has been narrowed down too.

            You are also correct in terms of the type of people we are surrounded by. Literally surrounded, as in new neighbors on all four sides, three of whom commute 2 hours a day into the heart of the shitlibopolis while keeping high end vehicles in pairs on their driveways.

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        • We’re on our own, brother. We always were but we ran the show with old school honor and integrity. Schlomo runs this freakshow now. He wants Whitey dead. Wars, injections, drugs, gambling, perversion, shit food, shit water , shit money…these motherfuckers want us dead, diseased, broke and starving. It’s in their writings, in their holy books. None of this is random, your witness to over a thousand years of animosity, boiling over. 109, yes?

      • Just five years ago when I moved into my hood it was 95% white. Now it is 50% tops. You’re never truly safe from the criminal race.

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        • Here’s the thing. I did not move into a “hood”. Yes, it was three decades ago but the area was rustic. Walk into town, shops owned by people that looked like what started back from mirror. Small theater.

          Never locked the doors. Mind you, 65 miles from the bluest of blue shitlipoplii and yet. Never. Locked. Doors.

          Walk to church. Local school dated back 100 years, still used for grades K-8.

          Now, local school an empty hulk, ma$$ive tax dollars on new, new, new despite declining enrollment. And as a cherry on top, local school district gets nailed, red handed, busing in illegals from other towns to fill seats …. and no one goes down. Memory holed.

          Homes that had a $1 on the front of them are selling for over half a million. Cottages, really, 1,000 square feet. And yet, those persons emanating from the blue shitlibopolis fall all over each other to snap them up. One savvy homeowner spent a few shekels to make a “green” home and … sakes alive, a pair of gay guys, married of course – nailed it! How lucky, they throw parties.

          My point is before the strength began to make us all stronger here, the place had tens of thousands of fewer people. Much. Weaker. But that’s where we bought – there were PLENTY of already strong places down the line. Some “hoods”, sure, but really suburbs nearer the heart of the strength.

          We did not choose those places. Doesn’t matter, strength spreads. Like mold.

          My parents are sanguine. They say “we moved twice for white flight, nothing new…”

  21. am i the only one who thinks ukraine is just a warm up for something bigger? an out of town try out, so to speak.

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    • Nah.

      The Chinese will simply conduct a leveraged buyout of Taiwan before their dollar-denominated holdings become worthless.

      10
    • Maybe a scrap yard to get rid of old inventory – like leaving it behind in Afghanistan and Iraq … oops, gotta order new stuff!

    • The globalists have been wanting to starve us for a long time. They’re obviously using Russia as a whipping boy for cutting off our fertilizer and fuel.

      There’s no way they could have banned Russian fertilizer imports into Europe without something like the Ukraine conflict for a pretext.

  22. Before I write any further, I want to clarify: I despise our overlords. I am one of those who truly believe that we are rules by a mixture of bankers, families, and leaders (often interlinked) that worship the Devil and molest, abuse, and cannibalize children. I believe they run the world (especially the West). I also believe that they want to kill most of the people on the planet (including us). Knee jerk reaction, I also find myself wishing Russia success.

    However, I think we have to consider what happens if Putin successfully stalls the dominance of GAE with things such as a counter economic system. I think we should all remember that we benefit from the rapacity of our overlords. We have benefited from USA colonization of most of the world. Couldn’t the crisis of a defeated dollar lead to the goals the elites seek in even more expedience? Not that I believe our views affect anything, but I feel that a victory for Russia would not be a victory for our lives. And, yes, I am aware, that, eventually, the average America will lose either way.

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    • Benefit how? Will my pastimes and hobbies become much more expensive, my food and gas bill shoot to the moon? Yes, economic hard times are probably inevitable. Sure there is a difference between 400 and 1000% annual inflation, but that is short term pain, years at most.
      My concern is the next generation. Is it better for my children’s future that I endure a bad economic depression that deposes the current order, or a mild depression that does not change the current order? I prefer moderate pain to me now than severe pain to my children later.

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    • Have we *really* been benefitting from GAE economic dominance? With all of our manufacturing and most of our energy exploitation exported overseas?

      A commenter below mentioned that the sanctions work like a protective tariff for the target country: forcing them to develop their own internal industries. But the protectionism can work both ways as well.

      If “American” companies are no longer able to offshore our manufacturing to cheap labor spots like Asia, and then reimport the “finished” goods, what do you think that will do to the domestic labor market? Or if cheap raw materials are no longer available from China/Russia, what will that do to domestic energy/mining industries?

      Globalism is not our friends. The only ones who benefit are the Schwabs, the Romneys, and the Bidens. Ending it will benefit every worker in the world: Russian, Chinese, or American.

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      • I suppose it depends on where you start.

        embargoing a country with no natural resources is probably effective, as they have no basic material to leverage and would eventually run out.

        Embargoing a nation with resource, and technical skills internally to use them to replace imports is just stupid as a concept.

        I don’t believe you could ever embargo the US for example, even if you managed to, what would it achieve?

        Therefore the embargo must have another reason(s), as it sure ain’t what is stated.

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        • Before I respond, I want to again reiterate my opening: I think we are ruled by horrendous, wicked people. My point is that we cheer the victory of these peoples’ putative enemy, without considering the impact it has on our life. The overly simplistic “Putin is defeating the NWO” assumes that 1)He will and 2)We, in America, do not benefit from the order, AS OF NOW (as I clarified). I would just suggest that the overwhelming sentiment on this message board is “Yay Russia!” with the prevailing blindspot that an economic response by Russia may damn ourselves. To me, this strikes me as being spoiled. I don’t ask anyone to agree with me, but I think any reasonable person can agree I have a worthy of consideration point. And, once more, I am just suggesting a possibility I think many have ignored. We should consider the impact this stuff has at home, and recognize Russia’s success might impact us horrendously at home.

          Further, I think nearly exclusively of what is best for my kids, which is why I tend to root for the system that does not expose them to abject poverty. I fear any replacement of the current order will only make their lives worse. I am unvaccinated, and so are my kids. Any victory Russia has will only heighten the tyranny HERE. We will be the whipping boys.

          I would suggest that a counter to the GAE will not necessarily remove the current corrupt leaders. Anything that would remove our current leaders would be more than a depression. It gets worse every year – and we are even further from removing our overlords.

          I would also say ‘benefit’ as in ‘financially.’ Like it or lump it, we still have more buying power than most people and a better quality of life. Our ingratitude shows that. And any who would counter that I am fixated on money is wrong – I am quite anti-materialistic. I live a sparse existence with hobbies instead of entertainment.

          And it never fails to amaze me that people welcome mass casualty events and then fantasize that they will be among the few survivors, ignoring the odds.

          To me, answers like that showcase the type of person who loves Zombie movies and cheers for the zombie apocalypse. They imagine breaking free and running through the woods with an AR across their chest ‘surviving.’ In an apocalypse, we will be the zombies, based on pure odds.

          To anyone disagreeing with this: are you in good shape? Train regularly? Have a homestead with sustainability in food, water, and energy?

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          4
          • I am not cheering for anything. I think they incredibly harmful to the west itself.

            I am merely pointing out the sanctions are completely without logical foundation conceptually given Russia’s resource and population, and therefore must serve some other purpose.

            Dovetailing with the demand destruction and build back energy rhetoric across all of Govt it seems clear what that is.

            Living in Europe, we are going to feel the effects 100x more than the US, who can be energy and material self-sufficient to a large degree.

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          • Trumpton – I agree with you completely. I again agree that the sanctions are about instituting a Global Reset – as they promise. I guess my main thesis is: this is not going to end well – regardless of any short term outcome. I agree with the points of others regarding outsourcing. The wolf has been grabbed by the ears, and we are going to get bit either way. And, personally, I hope it does occur later rather than sooner – so my kids have more time to grow up.

          • “Any victory Russia has will only heighten the tyranny HERE. We will be the whipping boys.”

            I agreed with you upthread. Go look.

            But this right here:

            “Any victory Russia has will only heighten the tyranny HERE. We will be the whipping boys.”

            loses me. To me, it does not necessarily follow. What am I missing?

          • the reason i disagree with your use of the word “benefit” is because i am old enough to remember the quality of life for middle class Americans before the advent of 2 income households. your focus on money has blinded youm IMO.

    • Hide your daughters! And sons!

      If they’re pretty, yes-
      But soon after, especially, if they’re fat.

    • ” … but I feel that a victory for Russia would not be a victory for our lives.”

      “Russian victory” meaning what exactly? In the current police action in the Ukraine? Or in some what that reduces or destroys the power of the Yankee dollar? Those are not at all the same things. I’m not sure what you mean.

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    • If our overlords were intelligent they could have thought of how to unwind the problems they created and recaptured they globe in an intelligent manner. Ahh maybe impossible, but worth a try.. instead of thrashing about.

  23. Off Topic:

    I’ve been recovering from the China flu (unvaccinated, of course). It was about 2 days of mild cold symptoms, then a day of feeling like complete crap: fever, fatigue, headache and chills, then another day of feeling a little less crappy with no fever. That’s basically it.

    If we had never heard of “COVID” I would have just assumed that I caught a nasty bug, and been thankful for the short fever and quicker than expected recovery.

    After 2 years of lockdown the virus is still with us, surprise. My american friends caught the same thing 2 years ago and have lived mostly normally since. What a joke. If you’re old or unhealthy you might have a problem from the virus since the fever was quite heavy that one day. Other than that it’s fine.

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      • why the fukk was i downvoted for asking a pertinent question? did you goobers think i was somehow accusing b125 of something? i was just collecting a data point for crying out loud…

        1
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    • Yep.

      I’m fortunate to be living in a rural community on Colorado’s western slope, where most people I associate with have been ignoring Covid ever since the “pandemic” began.

      Most folks I know have not only been ignoring masks and social distancing, they never stopped hugging, or passing joints at parties.

      Those few who have gotten mildly sick have quickly recovered; their immune systems no doubt stronger as a result.

      I’m 71 years old. I keep waiting for Covid to kill me, but it appears that rumors of my death are premature.

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      • Don’t get too cocky, Bill. Climate change or racism, or even one of that nasty guy, Putin’s, death squads could still get ya.

    • Glad to hear it but some I know got it very bad last december. Not old, obese etc. one is still suffering long term effects.

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      • Were they vaccinated? Because some doctors are suggesting that vaccination only makes your chances of complications and/or death more likely. Some suggest that it’s the spike proteins that the rMNA vaccine causes your body to produce, that are causing the various complications being reported.

        But yeah: I’ve heard those stories too: of people outside the most vulnerable groups falling ill. They’re statistical outliers, but nonetheless are happening. So there’s a lot we don’t know.

        Last CDC stats I saw were that those who died had a median age of 78 and an average of 2.6 other pre-existing conditions. In other words, like any flu, it mainly kills those who are already vulnerable.

        And we’re all going to die sometime….

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        • Covid’s death toll, of course, is wildly inflated. People who have been dying from the usual suspects, principally diabetes and heart disease, have been classified as Covid deaths. Truth be told, actual Covid mortality is probably about five percent of the official number.

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          • The UK health ministry put their figure at 12%, and I am sure they are not as wildly overcounting as we are. So your 5% smells about right. If there were no Covid specific tests, we would be calling it a bad Flu year.

      • just like some people die of the flu. there is tremendous natural variability in response to everything (in different people). that’s why valid data is so important.

    • Pretty sure I managed to contact Cv over New Year’s because I ran my system down by spending too much time exposed to damp, cold weather.

      It was pretty close to what you describe, save for the aches and pains I experienced, particularly the shin splints.

      • OTOH, last year I spent 4 hours in close confinement with a couple who both tested positive for Covid the following week and were hospitalized for it. It seems certain I was exposed, but— like 80% of folks who get it— experienced no symptoms at all.

        Pure thoughts and clean living?
        Not really…..

        • “Pure thoughts and clean living?
          Not really…..”

          A robust immune system.

          Also, exposure doesn’t mean infected. And anyway, there is not now nor has there ever been a diagnostic procedure for Covid. So it’s not that the case numbers have been wildly exaggerated; it is that there is no diagnostic test, so all the case numbers are bogus.

          Period.

          The allopathic medical establishment and the public health “profession” are rackets.

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          • Yep: it’s all about having a healthy immune system. That’s why the majority of deaths are occurring among people whose immune systems were already compromised.

            And yeah: LOTS of false positives: very helpful if your goal is to run up the numbers.

            As is the media’s tendency to talk about “cases”— including all those false positives— rather than deaths.

            And to classify as “death from Covid” anyone who dies with “Covid-like symptoms”, whether they were tested or not.

            Only one reason I can think of why people who know better would set up such a sloppy protocol: to turn a slightly-worse-than-normal flu season into a society-threatening “pandemic”.

            The old “national security” rationale for arbitrarily restricting Americans’ freedoms was wearing thin. Now we have a new one: “public health emergency”

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          • TIP. Gee, that’s funny. My last bloodwork detected antibodies specific to Covid. So they lied to me? But if they lied to me (because there is no real test for Covid), then why was my blood test 6 months prior negative for Covid antibodies? Do they flip a coin and port random results to the same client?

            But then aside from blood work from a private lab, there was the County PCR test 6 months before that, which was positive. I guess it was one of those juiced up tests designed to deliver high levels of false positives.

            But if that were so, then why were the tests of most of the immediate family group not all positive? All PCR tests simple report random negatives/positives? Covid roulette? Seems like quite a convenient (self-serving) explanation.

            The disease is real. The testing (when done—it was not in the initial wave) is good enough for broad analysis of extent of disease. Everything else about it I agree is subject to interpretation through one’s own good common sense.

            Period.

          • Compsci, not disagreeing with you or anything, just pointing out you and IP are talking about two different things – that have gotten conflated. he is talking about a test to see if you are currently infected, and you are talking about a test to see if you *were* infected (and recovered).

        • 80+% of people have natural immunity to the coof. that princess cruise ship at the start of it all demonstrated that.

    • B125. Covid is not only with us, but the variant of the new variant is taking hold around the world. Some folk are dying and that is unfortunate, but slowly it will pass through the susceptible and the yearly deaths will be as with the flu—if not in total numbers, an accepted risk and common end of life scenario.

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      • “B125. Covid is not only with us, but the variant of the new variant is taking hold around the world.”

        This is both unknown and unknowable b/c there is no diagnostic procedure. All that is known or knowable at this point is what we are being told.

        Period.

        • I disagree, but have no reference to point to. One need not “test” every new infection for genotype/antigen, only a sub sample of the newly infected population. This is easy enough to do at the hospitals or the county’s central health administration with blood samples sent in. That method I assume is how they measure those with the new variant vs those with the old, or another variant.

          This is not rocket science. Now as to whether we are being lied to is another story, but that would need to be coordinated across several countries where the variant strain of Omicron is said to be taking hold. That I believe is not nearly as likely as within the USA—but I’m bias here.

          Also, that there are variants cropping up and the reason for these variants is not out of line as per older epidemiology science and theory believed before this latest pandemic. There is theory to explain the promotion of variants through indiscriminate vaccination, theory to explain milder forms of the original disease with these variants, and 100 years of observation of endemic flu around the world.

          Period.

    • Your experience is the overwhelming rule, not the exception. (My bout with the coof was similar to yours.) This so-called “pandemic” is a royal crock of shit.

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      • “(My bout with the coof was similar to yours.)”

        My bout with [whatever is going around] was similar to yours.

        That’s all we know. Everything else is conjecture or propaganda.

        Period.

    • I got it also over Christmas along with pretty much my whole family. I was pretty bad for 48 hours or so, temperature, chills, headaches, sinusy. Got better pretty fast. Then a good 3-4 days later, lost my smell for a good 5 days. So weird. Never happened to me before as far as I can recall. Took vitamins C and D several times a day, zinc as well, NAC, and quercetin. Took artemisin once too. Kept taking the vits and zinc and some NAC after the illness for a week or so.

  24. These NATO fools think they are being heroic by sending advanced anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons systems. Many of them are going to end up in Russian hands.

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    • They already have.

      The Russians have been capturing US export electronics since they rolled the Georgians South Ossetia in 2008.

      They captured newer versions at points in Syria.

      I’d bet they had FSB and GRU guys going over the stores of the latest stuff left behind in Afghanistan offering the Taliban hard currency.

      In Syria and Afghanistan they likely had many opportunities to pick up US-spec gear along the way.

      They probably offered to share some with the Chinese if the Chinese weren’t able to grab their own.

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      • “The Russians have been capturing US export electronics since they rolled the Georgians South Ossetia in 2008.”

        What a waste of time and effort. The Clintons or the Bidens would have cheerfully sold them the tech.

        And probably did …

    • I would have thought the Ukranians would have sold them all before that happens.

      I would not be surprised if most are being cross shipped on arrival.

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    • I wonder how many of those Javelin strikes were “own goals,” since the Ukrainians possess similar weapons and vehicles. Also (snark alert), I can’t help but think that someone might have confused Javelins and Stingers, and instead of downing a Hind gunship blew up one of his own BMP carriers. Let’s hope that the crew and squad were taking a smoke break when–if–this happened.

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      • Oh yeah. Lots of local scores being settled, and lots of media events being generated for Western propagandists.

        One tiny benefit.
        Trannies aren’t being allowed to leave, they have to stay,
        because they’re men.

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        • “Trannies aren’t being allowed to leave, they have to stay,
          because they’re men.”

          The first really funny thing to come out of this mess so far.

  25. I just don’t get how we’re ruled by the sorts who were easily dispatched with swirlies and backhands in junior high. Kids were stronger then than ‘adults’ are today.

    What can you do but wait for real hardship to toughen people up, at a terrible cost? Being the sort who likes to win and do justice, it’s torturous. Or you accept the that there’s a greater justice being done to a wicked and deserving society, hope you aren’t among the damned, and position yourself the best you can.

    21
    1
    • waiting is hard. life is a test. take the opportunity to adapt to the current reality.

      15
      • A 40 year test and counting lol. You’re right. At least I have no choice by nature, because I don’t think I’d have the discipline.

    • Radical jews who were punching bags in grade school, like Blinken, own the State Dept…and they are looking for revenge against just about everyone…

      25
        • Not just radical hebes, though they stick out like a sore thumb. All sorts, none of whom are formidable, except in their ability to agitate, subvert, play head games. And it’s only the public’s weak-mindedness that their power rests on.

          You figure it out, how weak it is, you become indifferent to it, it stops affecting you. Taking that society-wide is the hard part.

          13
      • Don’t worry, pyrrhus. There are plenty of freedom loving Jewis like me who are going to do everything we can to stop the Mofos.

  26. “Washington is betting you can starve longer than Russians or Chinese.”

    I’m pretty sure the Russians and Chinese have much more experience with hunger than some Dorito eating, latte swilling Millennial or latter generation. More importantly, what will the brain dead do when their sail phones go dead or get turned off due to inability to pay?

    29
    • it will be sad, seeing fat assed normies standing forlornly at their idle grills, going through the motions like the cargo cult savages they really are.

      26
      • Eyes skyward, hoping desperately that a couple of briskets and a pork butt tumble out of a passing plane.

      • So in the future will they be making wooden BBQ grill effigies and wearing hand me down aprons hoping the burgers will return someday?

      • And who knows? That may be just what we need: the inner-city vibrants cooking and eating each other, after they’ve scoured the gentrified neighborhoods for tasty well-fed Progs….

        While those with the sense and foresight to have distanced themselves from sacred “minorities” live to tell the story and write the history.

        After a time in which welfare-state “safety nets” of “entitlements” temporarily subverted the process of evolution, Darwinian survival of the smartest and most-capable reasserts itself in a big way….

        21
      • You say that, maybe in jest, but it is pretty interesting to think about how many days of missed shipments it would take before riots started. I’ve seen shortages of staples in my farm-belt city happen when stores tried going from six deliveries a week to five. In all seriousness, I’d guess that it would take eight days of missed deliveries to spark riots.

        13
        • In inner cities— where George Floyd’s tribe are eagerly awaiting their next excuse to riot— it probably wouldn’t take that long.

          Hack into the computer system controlling Gov’t welfare payments, disable all the EBT cards, and stop all the “entitlement” checks from going out: how long until the Vibrantly Diverse take to the streets?

          Just imagine a line of joggers at a foodmart checkout line, all of whose EBT cards are suddenly not registering.

          Will they shrug their shoulders, and say “Oh well…” and meekly put the groceries back on the shelf?

          Or will they decide to jes’ walk on out wit the m-fing groceries? And smash a few windows on their way home?

          22
          • The enemy always gets a vote. I think that with the sanctions we are imposing on Russia, the Russians will conduct cyber warfare attacks on utilities and the electrical system. A cyber attack on the state EBT systems would be a unconventional attack that would cause massive problems.

            7
            1
          • “Hack into the computer system controlling Gov’t welfare payments, disable all the EBT cards, and stop all the “entitlement” checks from going out: … .”

            That is how they will force millions of us into the Central Bank Digital “Currency” (CBDC). The one-world digital “Currency” that is already in the works. The hologram in the White House signed the exec order on the 8th, I think it was.

            And in my opinion, that is FAR more dangerous than being inconvenienced by not finding spare ribs at the store.

            Everybody who *can* say NO to the CBDC
            *must* have a *workable* plan *ready* when the time comes *and* have everything in place or in hand that they will need to put the plan into effect.

            It’s later than you think.

            10
    • Gomorrah DC is making a terrible bet.

      I’d take the other side of that bet all day.

      12
    • “I’m pretty sure the Russians and Chinese have much more experience with hunger … .”

      True enough, but remember that the floods in China–brought about by the Eddy Grand Solar Minimum (remember that?)–had the Three Gorges Dam so close to failure that they destroyed millions of acres of farmland by engineered flooding upstream to relieve stress on the dam, and thereby lost 50% of their *food crops* last year, and they had lost 30% the year before that to heavy rains and flooding, and China was already a net importer of food before that.

  27. It will be fascinating, in a perverse way, to see how today’s diverse ‘American’ responds to genuine financial and dietary hardship. Totally aside from the virtues of various missiles and tanks (that’s my husband’s purview and I will get his opinion when I read this to him tonight), most people seem utterly unaware of the sort of economic repercussions many of us expect within the next 6-18 months. Fertilizer? Harvests? Cost of livestock feed? Culling livestock? It’s crickets all the way down. And, so far as I know, all those container ships are still backed up out in the ocean.

    Here in the DFW area we’ve been rather fortunate – nothing I’ve been unable to find or purchase and even gas has dropped significantly (hubby saw it yesterday for $3.69). But there are places in America where significant shortages are already a regular occurrence and I’m just starting to see comments from Europeans re shortages of flour and more importantly cooking oil. And Germany is purportedly predicting its eggs will run out by June or so. But mention Avian flu and its spread not just internationally but throughout America and the consequences of culling millions (out of admittedly billions) of chickens, and again, crickets. Interesting times.

    30
    • I have generally felt that the “get out of the cities” memes were overblown although sincere. That was wrong. Being near vibrants during food shortages tends to be fatal.

      I knew chicken had increased even more exponentially than red meat, but did not realize avian flu was a factor.

      24
    • Well that’s the thing, isn’t it?

      We seem to have forgotten that even though the squaddies are off to war… if the folks at home aren’t behind them, they will lose. In a protracted war, the civvies have to be all in, 100%.

      I still have my grandmother’s civilian cookbook from the 1940’s that helped the housewives at home make the most of their meagre rations. Back then, food was fuel and that’s it. The meat recipes would turn your stomach but it was calories and in those days you ate what was in front of you and you were thankful.

      If America is plunged back into a scenario like that… the Democrats are liable to get strung up by their own people.

      17
      1
      • The hungry vibrants will be jogging out of the inner cities, and making a meal (literally) of their “anti-racist allies”.

        Safety and security will be measured by distance from vibrant population centers.

        24
        • “Safety and security will be measured by distance from vibrant population centers.”

          It already is.

          • Indeed: the worst crimes in the little town I live outside of are along the lines of “Will whoever took my daughter’s bicycle from our front yard please return it”

            The population is almost 100% White. And no hard drugs in evidence.

            Coincidence? I don’t think so….

            Demographics is destiny

      • “We seem to have forgotten that even though the squaddies are off to war… if the folks at home aren’t behind them, they will lose. In a protracted war, the civvies have to be all in, 100%.”

        Oddly enough, reinstating the military draft was in the news this very morning.

        They are planning a ground war in Europe.

      • “I still have my grandmother’s civilian cookbook from the 1940’s that helped the housewives at home make the most of their meagre rations.”

        Not to mention the approaching shortage in chemical fertilizers.

        Fortunately, there is a cheap alternative: paramagnetic rock dust.

        I’ve held forth about that in here before, so I’ll say no more about that. But get your hands on some while there is an intact distribution system.

        It’s later than you think.

    • Dont be such a Pollyanna,3g. Eggs production is nonfungible, like crude oil can only be refined with appropriately tailored facilities for that type of crude: the market production for retail is a small sector. Most farmed eggs are bulk sold in liquid via 275 gallon ibcs for industrial processing – mcdonalds et al. Retail facilities are very different for washing, sanitizing and packaging eggs for grocery stores. If the retail producers are the ones that get hit with the new avian flu, grocery store prices for eggs can go vertical.

      • ” … grocery store prices for eggs can go vertical.”

        IF you can get them at any price.

        I’ve preached about food security the way Lineman used to preach about community.

        He was right.

        So am I.

        Weston A Price Foundation.

    • “Fertilizer? Harvests? Cost of livestock feed? Culling livestock? It’s crickets all the way down. And, so far as I know, all those container ships are still backed up out in the ocean.”

      Therefore, once more will I urge you (and all of our community) to join the Weston a Price Foundation and find yourself a *local* food source.

      • ” … and find yourself a *local* food source.”

        And this cannot be done in one afternoon.

  28. This is brutal truth, and this is the only place you will find it. Most of MSM is furiously promoting propaganda lies and Tucker Bongino are still stuck preaching the vote-harder canard. When everyone is a whimp, the thought of a collapse and rebirth of hardship is terrifying. So best to stick your head up your ass and hide from the truth. Allow me to contribute some more truths.

    The “Last Superpower” is led by a corrupt dementia patient and everyone within the DC bubble thinks this is just a minor inconvenience. These politicians desperately believe that “our” crisis is the coming election, and as soon as the next batch of RINOs get into power, it will be “happy days are here again.” But the real reality is that we need this collapse in order to snap out of the Comfort First Imperative. Until people are genuinely hungry and hurting, they will not get serious about a remedy. This is ancient human nature and cannot be massaged by clever internet memes.

    But we don’t have to stay in the pit of the collapse forever. We can, and should, aspire for a quick rebound. The fog of chaos is your friend. The disease is obvious. Targeted chemo is much more efficacious than blunderbuss chemo when treating metastatic cancer. Whining, wailing, and street protests are not chemo. Think outside the box.

    I’m going to paraphrase a famous line from a movie in the way-back times.

    “If you incentivize them, they will leave.”

    36
    1
    • The elites have been preparing for a collapse for a long time, if these past years if not decades of their looting of everything in sight is an indication of where they thought this ship was ultimately heading.

      They’ve been preparing for collapse for a long time, and stowing away all their acorns. Making the right connections, building bunkers, buying farmland.

      But now that that time is upon them, they don’t seem to be ready for it and to know what to do.

      In ways it’s humorous, in others dumbfounding, but they have been preparing their entire adult and professional lives for the collapse and they seem to be caught flat footed and off guard.

      31
      • The furious looting is a sign they know collapse is imminent. Also, intellectual titan Mike Tyson nicely sums up the elite confusion about things not going to plan despite their best efforts: everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth. The hit in the mouth, in this case, is China giving D.C. a good hardy LOLGF. I didn’t expect it, and thought there was some 4D chess at play (the Bigfoot of analysis), but, naah, they never considered their fairweather plans in Beijing would put the pencil to them.

        17
        • ” … they never considered their fairweather plans in Beijing would put the pencil to them.”

          Those of you with children or grandchildren of draft age should be making plans *now* for how to keep them out of the ground war that the (((neocons))) are planning for Europe.

          The draft was in the news this very morning,

      • I’ve always felt that there’s a very basic flaw in the billionaire bunker logic.
        I remember from Schoolkids Oz in 1970 a cartoon featuring Nixon, Kissinger & assorted important people living it up in a post-apocalyptic bunker and having a high old time until the marines guarding them suddenly realised that THEY could be the ones parting with the bunny girls.
        It ended with Nixon and Kissinger on the surface in a knife-fight over a rat carcase…………..

        29
      • When you have ridiculous wealth, it’s easy to purchase ridiculously over-the-top panic rooms, secure retreats, and mercenary guards to man the parapets. And because of all that, when it fails in response to highly motivated innovation, the impact can be enormous. Stampedes start this way. Not everything can be anticipated and overconfidence is a cruel bitch. It’s hard to live the good life when you’re constantly looking over your shoulder.

        15
        • The problem that wealthy people and preppers both generally ignore is that being alive 2+ months after day one of the collapse requires having regular access to clean water, non-spoiled food, and emergency resources. Those things require an orderly, productive society or essentially a fully-functional, self-sufficient farm. If you don’t have at least one of those things within a couple weeks of the first day of collapse, you’re survival odds won’t be any different than those of the completely unprepared.

          16
          1
          • My thinking follows yours.

            I prep just enough to get by. My life has gone from hurricane to earthquake country, and so I know how to survive for a while.

            But I always found that over-prepping was something of a waste of time and energy for reasons you note. Further, you don’t want to over-prepare and stunt your ability to think on your feet, to rely on your wits and keep them always fresh, which seems to me to be a better way to get by when the S really hits the fan. Sort of like a boxer who prepares for a 12 round fight by training only for 8 rounds, because after 8 you want to dig deep into your soul and allow it to take over. To see what you are really made of. I think knowing what you are really made of is very important.

        • TomA:

          WRT to always looking over your shoulder

          When I used to watch Fox News I noticed they would always have on guys being interviewed who were jittery and glancing left and right all the time. Did you ever notice it?

          And it is why I never understood the mafia. How can anyone live knowing that at any moment you can get whacked? I don’t get the calculations these guys would make: ok I get nice cars and a nice place and a mistress or two, but it can end at any time. Seems to me that making an honest living is far better.

          10
    • This may be the moment when those with the foresight to understand what they’re seeing realize that the days of America as ‘superpower’ are over. The era when we could call the shots on the world stage, and no one could oppose us, has ended.

      Instead of continuing to imagine that we can dictate results, we need to start paying attention to what other nations are doing, and what the unintended consequences might be if we continue to let our delusions of grandeur color our perceptions and our actions.

      22
      • “Instead of continuing to imagine that … .”

        That would require a totally different environment: culture, population demographics, political system, all of it: a totally different environment.

        Our political-cultural system has brought us to this point. It could never have brought us to any other place. So I don’t think that wise, judicious decisions and actions can be realistically expected from our rulers or from our neighbors.

        These are people who will believe literally anything, and apparently the stupider and more unlikely, the more believable.

        When Tom A says to think outside the box, he just might mean the idiot box, for it is now undeniably clear that TV mediates reality for prolly 80% of the population.

        Universal suffrage and such like guaranteed from the beginning that we would end up here, and nowhere else. It was baked into the cake a LONG time ago.

    • The ESG morons honestly fail to grok that no diesel means no fuel deliveries for their private jets, yachts, or the generators powering their bunkers.

      Their density is incredible.

      16
      • Another inside baseball insight. The diesel shortage has been manufactured as a lame attempt to thwart the trucker protests. Refineries can alter and shift crude molecules between gasoline, avgas, diesel, heating oil, and heavies as the market demands. It’s a choice usually driven by market & processing economics, but politicians have no qualms about fucking this up also.

        17
        • In the U.K., Nigel Farage has made a video where he revealed (assumes you trust anything a pol says) that the U.K. imports *refined* diesel—20%—from Russia! This now has been discontinued and there is a few months supply in shipment, but when it runs out, rationing is inevitable.

          • ” … but when it runs out, rationing is inevitable.”

            That OR Britain pays Russia–in rubles–for more fuel.

            And let’s not forget that the “sanctions from hell” end in August. Unless hey extend, of course.

            The question is, can we make it till August? (And I *think* the expiry date is the 31st, but don’t feel like looking it up.)

  29. What’s old is new again. The United States and Europe are attempting a good old-fashioned blockade of Russia. But instead of using ships, we’re using banks and the dollar.

    As Z mentions, Russia hasn’t really brought out its big guns in this battle, preferring to see if it can get around the sanctions and/or create an alternative trading system first. (I don’t think Putin really wants to destroy Europe’s economy if he can avoid it.)

    And just as everyone is getting to see how military weapons perform in real battles, the world is watching what economic weapons are being employed by both sides and how they perform. China, India and the rest of the world will adjust as needed.

    I think what caught everyone off guard, besides the seizure of central bank reserves, has been the speed and willingness of private corporations to impose their own sanctions on Russia. Oil companies pulling out of Russia, shipping companies refusing to ship Russian oil, etc.

    My suspicion is that our rulers would have preferred that this not happen. There’s a reason that we excluded energy from the sanctions. But cancel culture has been so ingrained in our society that the companies reacted as they’ve been trained: stop doing business with this week’s bad guy.

    Regardless, for the first time in a very long time, Americans are going to feel the costs of GAE at home. The Europeans are already dealing with dramatically rising energy costs.

    I’ve always said that our rulers can throw a good punch but can’t take a punch. I suspect that we’re about to find out if that’s true.

    50
    1
    • Perhaps a secondary question from that is how many real private independent companies outside the giant squid actually exist?

      Perhaps there are a lot fewer than one thinks when seen top down.

      24
      • This. People need to stop thinking about giant, global corporations as “private companies”. They are not. They are equivalent to nation-states in terms of resources, scale, ideology, and global reach.

        Only difference is that these nation-states don’t employ modern militaries to protect their leadership should things get hot…

        17
        • “Only difference is that these nation-states don’t employ modern militaries … .”

          Oops. Don’t look now, but …

    • Correct.

      Putin wants a deal. His demands are not unreasonable at all. He wants an enforced neutrality for the Ukraine, and an end to the corruption there in various trade agreements that is costing them billions a year. Zelensky and the people that own him have been goading the Russian bear forever.

      Putin just fired back with all petro deals now having to be with Rubles. Our elites are playing with fire. Don’t be surprised if it isn’t a Russian that comes charging into the Jewish temple, whipping the money changers and upending their tables…

      29
      1
      • funny enough, israel is more or less aligned with russia. makes the theory of “always hearing kossacks” a little shaky.

        4
        6
        • No, it’s just that the Israelis are a bit more tied to reality than their American cousins.

          They have to run a country where they actually care about the people, unlike their cousins. They also can’t just get up and move to another country like their cousins. Makes them more realistic.

          Their American cousins have more latitude to indulge their fantasies.

          23
          • Aliyah is always available for their American cousins once their work is finished here and the carcass of America is bone dry.

          • “No, it’s just that the Israelis are a bit more tied to reality than their American cousins.”

            “Israelis are a bit more tied to reality than their American lackeys.”

            FIFY.

        • The Red Mafya wants to come back?

          Actually, they’re still there. These incredibly dangerous people are used to riding the tiger, any tiger.

      • The demand that Europe pay in rubles was pretty cheeky. Now, if he demands that they pay in gold, that’s a game changer.

        16
        • Rubles is better in the short term.

          You can’t use the FX markets to collapse the currency if you need it to pay for the goods.

          Also, if you are buying the currency from the Russian central bank what are you using to buy it with?

          And where does that foreign currency go?

          11
        • If they give the Russians shit about having to pay in rubles, I predict that the Russians will then say, “Okay, if rubles are a problem for you, then we can switch to gold. Either way, but that’s the only way you get access to the hydrocarbons from us; their is not nor will there be, a credit plan for you ‘not agreement-capable’ types. Oh, and by the way these terms may be expanded to foodstuffs or other commodities, ‘Partners'”.

        • Yup. Gold may be the real Great Reset. 100 years of fiat debt, gone, poof, the Jubilee of the elites in a derivatives cascade.

          Us? Nah. CBDC, digital currency, will find a way, the way they’re preparing for us now.

          “Hideo Satoshi” means “rule from the center.” A person named Hideo Satoshi never existed.

          • “Us? Nah. CBDC, digital currency, will find a way, the way they’re preparing for us now.”

            This. I said upthread that Biden had signed the EO on the 8th, but it was the 9th. Anyway, the ball is rolling.

        • “Now, if he demands that they pay in gold, that’s a game changer.”

          What they ought to do is to institute a bi-level ruble, as South Africa did at one point.

          And back the *internal* ruble with gold and let the *external* ruble float on the ForEx markets.

          That would help the West to see more clearly b/c it would clarify things considerably. 😉

    • My guess would be that Putin saw how during Covid the major corporations jumped in and did the government’s dirty work and, even if not required to, set up their own internal vaxx mandates, etc.

      That these major corps are just extensions of the government is something I think the world has already grasped and have been preparing with it in mind.

      • “That these major corps are just extensions of the government … .”

        I *think* it’s the other way around.

    • “The Europeans are already dealing with dramatically rising energy costs.”

      Higher cost of *everything* b/c higher energy prices … you know.

      “I’ve always said that our rulers can throw a good punch but can’t take a punch. I suspect that we’re about to find out if that’s true.”

      For my money, this is the most dauting thing of all. We are soon going to know *exactly* what it means when we call our rulers “insane.”

      But how much time will we have left to digest the answers after we find out how insane they are? Or how they are insane?

    • On the contrary, I would have been shocked if the corporations HADN’T attempted to cancel Russia. They are a constitutive element of the Power Structure in act in concert with its other parts.

  30. If 30 years of rampant warmongering in Afghanistan, Iraq, even Vietnam (earlier) has conclusively proved anything, it’s that the days of stealing territory with mass armies are over.

    You can wreck infrastructure and murder civilians with impunity, but with MASS CONSCRIPTION, you’ll never be able to hold it.

    “When you take the king’s shilling, you’re expected to kill for the king”.

    Men around the world in all societies refuse to take that Faustian bargain in enough numbers to permanently take another country.

    All volunteer armies with fancy toys can destroy nations, but no one (other than the very narrow interests who profit from it) will thank them.

    17
      • Why they may try to starve and impoverish us and collapse our standard of living so that a few shillings from the king make the difference between life and death

        19
        • One of my 1/2 baked conspiracy theories that gets me banished to the basement by family is that the US government has purposely kept the economic prospects for American middle and lower class boys dire so that a career in the military fighting for Globohomo becomes the only way out of poverty status.

          27
          • Karl is correct.

            The military has been eyeing obesity as a serious impediment to filling recruiting targets since the late 00s.

            As far as opportunities for young men now, I’d say the trades are where it’s at.

            13
          • Last I read, 75% were unready for even boot camp. There are bunches of videos on recruits entering boot. In the one I watched, they arrived by bus at night and were promptly put to PT by the DI’s. Just push-ups.

            I’m 70 and swear I can outdo at least 50% of the recruits at that point. (And yes, I actual do those exercises so I have numbers.) One hopes they can improve quickly, but damn man—you know you are going in, you think you’d cut the BS and start exercising *before* you embarrass yourself.

          • Compsci,

            No, no! They can’t be embarassing themselves; rather, they are being shamed, and their precious self-esteem is being crushed by Patriarchal,Entitled Men. It’s all so obvious if you think about it. /s

        • “Why they may try to starve and impoverish us and collapse our standard of living … .”

          That’d be a helluva tightrope act. They’d have to know *exactly* how low they could take our living standards, AND they’d hafta know *precisely* what portion of the population they could take down to what level, since different demographics–and we got a bunch of ’em–would “break” at different levels.

          I doubt they could do it. They’d be dragged into the streets and torn to pieces. It’s living standards that everything else stands on.

    • If we had to ponder what we’re going to do to rebuild after a collapse with ourselves being the only thing we had to worry about, that would be one thing, but the Chinese have other plans for our homeland.
      A collapse here would be a green-light for them to start landing troops en mass. It wouldn’t take a lot, perhaps no more than 30k to pacify an area large enough to bring in the follow-on forces.

      10
      3
      • There are millions of them already in the US and Canada.

        I’d bet they already have tens of thousands of sleeper troops among them.

        17
        • Yeah the physical invasion already happened 40 years ago.

          They wouldn’t even need to send in troops today, all the non CCP aligned on the Vancouver/Richmond city council would just find themselves locked out one morning and a law would be passed to add Vancouver as a SAR.

          The police would receive updated objectives and agents in corporations would honor the new law.

          I believe it could be done in one morning with no bloodshed. It’s already happened, nobody’s signed the paperwork to make it official yet.

          13
          1
      • If the PLA wont send troops into vietnam or Myanmar, they most definitely will not send them to California and Texas. Soft power and trade, sure. Chicoms troops on the ground is some boomer “Wolveriiiiiines!” fantasy.

        7
        3
      • “A collapse here would be a green-light for them to start landing troops en mass.”

        But they–and the whole world–now know that “we” have bioweapons to target particular racial DNA. And they *hafta* assume that “we” have such weapons with *their* DNA in ’em.

        Would they roll the dice in such a case?

    • Disagree. We haven’t seen something similar since the late 1940s, but a relatively-small number of armed men can round up all the unarmed civilians in a village and load them onto buses, trains, or cattle cars, and ship them off to the frontier. Holding onto conquered populations might be impossible, but keeping the land would be pretty easy if you expel the population and replace them with your own.

      • Exactly what the CCP has done to Tibet. There are something like 50% ethnic Chinese there since ‘48 take over. Tibet is now China in blood and soil/

  31. The proliferation of drones, especially those with attack capabilities, seem to be a counter to the new SAMs. They are cheap[er] than conventional warplanes; there is no loss of skilled pilots if destroyed; their lower speed and lack of large radar profile and relatively low infrared/heat signatures all speak to the ability to get in close and destroy the SAM sites, enabling more conventional air ops. Of course, electronic warfare, jamming and the like, will they become paramount.

    9
    1
    • Point defenses and EW against drones are already in play. The Russians have shot down copies of the Turkish drones that were so effective in the Azeri-Armenian war.

      The absolutely incompetent Armenian response to the Azeri use of drones in their recent war made drones look like a panacea.

      That said, you are correct that drone swarms render piloted planes mostly obsolete. Imagine how many missile-armed drones you can field for the price of one F-35.

      17
      • Swarms….puts me in the mind of the Diamond Age published back in the late 90s I think. Anyway, warfare in that novel was conducted on the nano level. Biologicals notwithstanding, we are surely headed in that direction.

      • Drones require intact c&c communications. If that fails, or fails enough, then they are not a replacement for piloted craft, esp for combined arms close air support. Probably its just in between, everyone has to have everything and use whatever tool suits the conditions. This is not actually chess, everyone can move more than one piece at a time.
        I think the big change is going to be targets. With our current strategy, globohomo troops arent going to be trying to get through air defense to bomb their troops and tanks, but their refineries, banks, and ISP’s. War is now primarily an economic sanction, from the perspective of the Western powers. Good luck putting an anti-drone air defense around every power grid transformer and branch bank (I think i just heard Raytheon make a mess in their collective britches).

        • A well-fought and strategized war is fundamentally an economic assault. An army that wants a quick surrender will do well to burn it’s enemy’s fields and forests. Sanctions are just the modern version of Sherman’s March to the sea. In Consequently, resisting Globo Homo needs to fundamentally be a financial tactic, not shooting tactic. Canceling Netflix might not be as satisfying a daydream as riding in to Hollywood and shooting up a movie studio full of libs, but it’s much more effective.

      • Not reported by the media (imagine!) was the role that the Evil Russkies played in brokering an armistice between the Azeris and Armenians. Maybe not Peace With Honor for the latter, but not Peace Carthaginian Style, either.

    • “The proliferation of drones, especially those with attack capabilities, seem to be a counter to the new SAMs.”

      The reports I’ve read say that the Russians are making short work of the drones used thus far. Turkey seems to be the major supplier of drones to the Ukraine in the current police action.

  32. One major problem is that we now have women in positions of power making decisions about war. Sorry to veer a bit off topic but just learned that March has been women’s month. I guess next month will be dedicated to fat, hairy men in lipstick and dresses.

    Years ago, my sister did some pet/house sitting for a family from Iran who were devout Christians. The husband’s email correspondence with her always ended in flowery wording: “May the Lord, God of heaven and earth shower blessings upon you…”
    My sister was in the process of responding and was conflicted about how she should close out her message. My dad told her to respond the way we respond. That may be his way of doing things but it is not ours. It may be his culture but it is not our culture. It was another eye opening lesson on the differences between men and women.

    Women should be wives and mothers. Those who don’t marry can be librarians, secretaries, nurses, teachers of primary children. Placing women in charge has been a disaster. Women’s suffrage has only caused the suffering of women, families, society.

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    • Salient points all, however all of the problems we see in indoctrination today – the summoning of police at school board meetings, the “woke” crap everywhere – is all propagated by single, childless women. Are you sure you want them in teaching positions?

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      • Good point.
        If the women’s movement had been quashed, perhaps divorce would never have been promoted and celebrated as it was in the 70’s. We’d be living in a society with strong, in-tact families.

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        • Yeah, it’s truly amazing: all the news stories featuring “single moms”, with no mention of a male. An observer from Mars would likely get the impression that sexual reproduction in humans can happen single-handedly.

          All part of the war on men, and the disparagement of masculinity, that characterizes ‘wokeness’.

          How long can a society last which deliberately undermines normalcy?

          Meanwhile, both Russian and Chinese societies are actively encouraging traditional notions of masculinity and femininity….

          John Derbyshire may have been prescient when he chose as the title for his book ‘We Are Doomed’

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  33. From the beginning, it’s been clear that Ukraine alone cannot possibly win this war against Russia.

    For western leaders and mainstream media to keep on encouraging the Ukrainians to persist in fighting— for the media to continually fill the airwaves with positive stories about brave Ukrainians standing up to beastly brutal Russians, reports implying that Russia is weakening, that Russian tanks are stalled, along with “expert” predictions that the Russian economy won’t be able to survive the sanctions— all the while insisting that they have NO intention of joining the fight themselves — it’s like they WANT the Ukrainians to keep persisting in this suicidal endeavor that has no chance of succeeding. it’s like they WANT the war to be as cruel, destructive, and devastating as possible, in order to be able to paint Putin as the worst possible sort of heartless international villain.

    From Zelensky’s constant stream of pitiful calls for help— help which no western observer believes is forthcoming— it appears that he’s been led to believe that the west might intervene; that NATO might decide to bring Ukraine in as a member, then join in its defense.

    How is it that Zelensky is so deluded in his expectations? How is it that he keeps on pleading for something which no one else believes is possible: something that the NATO nations themselves keep insisting they they will never do?

    Is this whole charade a set-up to prolong the war and make Russia/Putin look as bad as possible?

    And don’t western leaders realize that the likely longterm effect of economic sanctions is not to destroy the Russian economy and ‘bring Russia to its knees’; but rather, to push Russia towards industrial self-sufficiency, and into a productive alliance with China and India; and possibly to bring about the formation of a yuan-based international banking/exchange system not reliant on the dollar, and devastating to the US economy?

    Is this— all of the above— somehow what they want— “they” being whoever is responsible for setting the tone of media coverage, and dictating sanctions against Russia?

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    • Not in answer to your questions, but merely to applaud you for asking them:

      I have for the most part avoided any reportage of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. Why? For the very simple, albeit rather cynical supposition on my part that all, or very nearly all, of what I’d hear, see or read is propaganda, one-sided at best and gross distortion at worst. To the extent I spend any mental effort on it, I’d rather think:

      What is the background of the conflict? What Western interests, known or probable, were/are there is the warring nations? What economic shifts, centers of power, are shifting? Who benefits from Scenario A over Scenario B? Why are events being narrated a certain way? What is not being discussed? And so on.

      The following is my provisional opinion, admittedly mostly from general “conspiracy theory” and not necessarily any deep investigations. There are so many rabbit holes, and even for a retired layabout, only so many hours in a day to explore them.

      The “West” has its hands dirty with Ukraine. Hunter Biden Laptop and Burisma is perhaps only the tip of an iceberg. What are the links of Biden, perhaps others, to this nation?

      The USA reportedly had bio-laps there. How many? Two dozen? Even U.S. officials have (mistakenly?) admitted as much. What other shadowy activities have we been involved with? CIA training of factions? To what ends?

      Western interests had (still have some?) many financial ties with Russia and I suppose, Ukraine. Now that these investments have been frozen or made worthless, who profits? Who loses? What angles exist to manipulate markets? By whom?

      There are any number of possibilities. But I can’t think of any greater waste of time than consuming mass media, unless it was to try to second-guess the ministries of propaganda.

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      • You are correct, you can’t believe anything you hear. Yesterday from a government official, I heard a statistic of over 40k Russian casualties! Followed by the remark that soon “there would be no Russia army left at all”.

        Goebbels would be proud.

      • I know blackrock has made billions buying rubles at one penny per ruble. Same old hussle, same old tune.

        • Yes at the same time every brokerage suspended Ruble purchases by retail “for risk management” reasons.

          Fuckers.

    • “From Zelensky’s constant stream of pitiful calls for help— help which no western observer believes is forthcoming— it appears that he’s been led to believe that the west might intervene; that NATO might decide to bring Ukraine in as a member, then join in its defense.”

      It is cynical beyond belief. The United States strung along Ukraine to achieve several goals. One was to divorce Europe from Russia. Increasingly, a second appears to be to strangle the domestic economy and bring it under even more control. All of these things will have dire consequences. Europe will look even more askance at America, and the United States economy is becoming a pariah.

      The war in Ukraine as far as the people and nation is totally irrelevant.

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      • Yes, as far as US strategic/national interests goes, the war in Ukraine has no effect on us at all.

        However— if economic sanctions against Russia end up in a situation in which Russia and other Eurasian nations join with China in developing a yuan-based international exchange system, which replaces the dollar-based system that’s been in effect since WWII— that WILL have a profound effect on us.

        Caveat: I’m not an economist, and don’t have an in-depth understanding of the workings of the international monetary system. I’m mainly basing my speculations on the opinions of Pepe Escobar over at Unz:

        https://www.unz.com/pescobar/say-hello-to-russian-gold-and-chinese-petroyuan/

      • Mearsheimer called it perfectly when he said the West was leading Ukraine down the primrose path and that it would get wrecked.

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        • Right! And how can it be that all the voices who are encouraging the Ukrainians to fight don’t see that?

          Or if they do see it: why are they urging Ukrainians in actions which can only make their situation worse?

    • The likely way for Putin to be brought to his knees is to assert that the sanctions have been effective. He’d also be likely pounding the carpet while doing so.

  34. In every war the US has started since WW2, the opposition has no real effective counter to its air superiority – until now. The US delights in foisting its big bad military on third world s***holes that don’t have an equivalent force – and we still can’t win. No doubt taking on the Russians will change all that…

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    • Remember all that cash we sent China for shopping carts full of savings?

      Turns out the Chinese sent some of it to Russian scientists who researched improved SAMs and radars.

      Oops.

    • Excellent article, tfp

      So the question becomes:

      Did western leaders not realize that arming Ukraine would be recognized as a red line by Russia? A situation which they couldn’t allow to happen?

      Did western leaders imagine that Putin is like Obama: who announced a red line in Syria, then backed down when it was crossed? That Putin would back down rather than resort to arms?

      Or— if they knew what the likely result would be of continuing to provoke Russia— what are they up to?

      Were they simply too stupid to see this all coming? Or is something else going on?

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      • It turns the eyeballs away from mass genocide by injection and the destruction of the money you worked your ass off for.

    • It made me think of WW1.

      We wonder how all those whiskered and bemedaled military types could build up like they did, as kindling awaiting a match…well, maybe they had their own versions of Raytheon.

    • ” … the most concise and reasoned explanation of how and why Russians invaded by John Mearsheimer.”

      Odd that he doesn’t mention that the Ukrainians bombarded the Donbas for 8 years, killing around 14,000 Russians. From 2014 until last month.

  35. The future of total war is going to be doing everything you can to crash an enemy’s economy to reduce the people to starvation? Very bleak, but I suppose that’s in line with the history of it.

    In the end, it’s probably better that war features those sorts of stakes. The way mid-late 20th century America went to war and experienced limited hardship (if any) really just helped bolster the Empire’s belief they could sell Americans on anything. Fatigue sets in eventually, but only after too long has past.

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    • There has always been a moral aspect to war. People will fight to the death if they believe they are n the side of angels. Starvation, on the other hand, saps people of that belief.

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    • The problem with that is its obvious that its going to be Europe that is reduced to starvation and energy poverty not Russia.

      You can’t sanction when you are the main consumer of a number of primary life supporting substances and your opponent is self-sufficient unless you intend to immiserate your own population in doing so.

      Repeatedly drilling into your own head is not a way to get rid of a headache.

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      • “Repeatedly drilling into your own head is not a way to get rid of a headache”.
        I’ll send a letter to my US congressman and senator with that statement – but will also draw a picture just to help with the comprehension.

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      • I think a long-term result will be further estrangement of Europe from the United States. This is ironic because a primary goals seems to have been to divorce Europe from Russia. Outside of the UK and to some degree Germany, Europeans governments tend to be more responsive to their citizens so they will have to act.

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        • Really?

          Which European govt outside Eastern Europe gives 2 shits about their own native population?

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          • If you take out the refugee and Green issues, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia (kind of EE, I know), Holland, even France. Only the US and UK really don’t mind economically harming their own outside of refugees and energy prices. Even Germany wants consumer goods for both export and their own citizens.

            Macron made adjustments to the Yellow Vests to defeat/marginalize them, but he did act. The US, UK and Canada would have destroyed them.

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          • @Jack.

            So if you take out replacing their own population with foreigners and reducing their population to energy starvation, controlled movement and food poverty they are more responsive?

          • @trumpton:

            Compared to the US and UK, yes, although admittedly a lower bar is harder to fathom.

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        • Yeah, I think I agree, and demographically it makes sense that America leaves Europe’s orbit and enters into the orbits of central and South America and fulfills its 21st century mestizo and mulatto destiny. We are only a 50% European country anymore. If that. The utter lack of interest in Ukraine I see among the non-whites speaks volumes.

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          • The Atlanticists still rule the roost in D.C., but they are whiter and getting older, so there is some merit there.

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          • I’m not Euroean. I’m a white American. Practically no Americans today can call themselves European. The exceptions are the odd immigrant. America is its own thing and doesn’t owe a damn thing except its heritage to the Euros. Acknowledge where you come from but more importantly acknowledge who you are.

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        • I’m sure ‘toria Nuland will make sure we all incinerate before that is allowed to happen. I am being glib, but only slightly.

      • These people think cutting off your man-parts because of your feelings is state of the art Science. You really think trepanning for headaches is beyond them???

    • We’re watching the first digital/banking war in real time. Much like soldiers and generals in WWI and then WWII had to learn and adapt to modern, industrial warfare, the world is watching, learning and adapting to modern economic warfare.

      Central bank reserves in the currency of hostile countries turned out to be the Maginot Line of this war.

      This will have a lot of knock-on effects.

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  36. Instead of trench war, this century’s great war will mean barriers to trade and capital.

    Trade and capital shenanigans are the cause of war, not the result. Tariffs were the true impetus to the War Between the States in 1861. Energy embargoes made the Japanese so unhappy that they bombed Pearl Harbor. Today the US interference in Russian sales of natural gas to American colony Germany is perhaps the root cause of the beef jolt in eastern Europe.

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        • Pickle Rick: Perhaps it depends on who is waging war on whom. Ideology certain matters more to the ‘Americans’ waging war on Russia via Zelensky and Ukraine (the rainbow flag must fly over the Kremlin). It’s akin to Hollyweird pushing movies that may not do as well financially but push their anti-White ideology hard.

          But the fact that many of them have gotten richer via stripping Ukrainian resources and now get richer still via kickbacks and MIC contracts is certainly a plus as far as they’re concerned. I would argue they do not merely want to win militarily in order to win ideologically, but they are also determined to see their enemies suffer economically. More than physical territory, they want to control the levers of power and prosperity. Controlling what people think and say while economically immiserating them is the goal. While crying out, all the time, at how much their enemy is causing world suffering.

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          • Much of this is aimed at harming/manipulating their own citizens in the UK and US. It is the foreign policy equivalent of Covid.

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        • US Marine hero Smedley Butler summed it up: “War is a racket”. It’s a money-making enterprise. If the riches can’t be swindled out of the weak they must seized by force. The ideology of the Russian state and the US have actually become more similar as time has gone by as Tomas Sunic points out, which has made them more competitive economically. While the Soviets were a military threat to the West they were never an economic adversary. Now the Russians are a growing part of the world economy, especially in Europe, and the US doesn’t need the competition.

      • Economics, though, can be a weapon. Nordstream 2 has been killed, at least temporarily, and divorcing Europe from Russia seems to have been a goal because the alliance was seen as slipping away (which might have happened over time anyhow). Those European governments more responsive to their own people, ironically, may have to sever from the United States as the energy and food supplies start to dry up.

        Just as the case with Covid, the unintended consequences will be a killer.

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        • You know, covid has been interesting. It’s made homeschooling very common. It has also made mask wearing unremarkable. That could really come in handy going forward.

        • Jack,

          I wonder how long Nordstream2 will stay shut down?

          Recalling that Getmany has already shut down half of their electricity-generating nuclear power plants, and are planning on shutting them all down in the near future: will Germany’s citizens be OK with sacrificing their standard of living in order to sanction Russia? Will they really stand by and watch while Russia finds another market for their natural gas, which they surely will?

          Or will Germans realize that it may be in their best interests to start trading with Russia and China instead of the US?

          • I think the Germans will stay strong until the Autumn. Then they will realise they have no fuel for winter and not many rubles to hand. Germans are like most Europeans: hapless, obedient sheep. But even sheep revolt when they get cold and hungry. However, I also believe that things may have sorted themselves out for better or worse before September.

      • If trade and capital shenanigans caused war, the US would have erupted into civil war in the 90’s. We didn’t.
        “Libertarians think war and morality dont be like it is, but it do.”

  37. ” Instead of trench war, this century’s great war will mean barriers to trade and capital.”

    I know little about armaments but this observation strikes me as portending the future of warfare. Each house and dwelling place a little entrepot although, in the long run, for how long before the Four Horeeman come crashing through the gates?

    Sill, in terms of conventional warfare, why doesn’t Russian air power bomb the roads making travel and delivery of goods and supplies to population centers difficult if not impossible and isolating Ukraine’s military personnel?

    • Seems pretty obvious, as they intend it to remain a functioning country when it ends. I doubt they want 40 million refugees on their border when its over.

      Unlike the US or NATO who just don’t mind wrecking the entire country, as its future is of no concern.
      20 million refugee Iraqis or Syrians is of no consequence to those making the decisions.

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    • “in terms of conventional warfare, why doesn’t Russian air power bomb the roads making travel and delivery of goods and supplies to population centers difficult if not impossible and isolating Ukraine’s military personnel?”
      Short answer-they have chosen not to, at this time. That’s the same answer as to why the Russians have not closed those corridors into Kiev, Karkhov, or Maripol with artillery, either (which Ivan is very, very strong in). All three of those cities are now well within the range fan of Russian artillery. Americans in particular, and Western Europeans, are enamored of and think of war as primarily “bombs away” since 1944. The Russians have opted for a more balanced approach.
      However, if they choose, they can mass artillery and rake Kiev with regimental mass TOT fire or shake and bakes, or cover the supply routes into aforesaid cities with DPICM, any time they want.

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    • The Russians are trying to preserve the infrastructure as much as possible to win hearts and minds.

      There are also rumors that they need the roads because they’ve been ordered to stay out of the fields as much as possible to avoid affecting the spring planting.

    • I dunno. It’s probably good that we’ll lose overall girth, but Americans haven’t suffered since the Civil War. Famines are still within living memory of the Chinese.

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    • The issue surely is that in China they are Chinese.

      In the US how many are actually Americans?

      There is a reason you don’t get mass looting in Japan everytime there is an earthquake.

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    • Plus, we can always eat the fatties if things get bad. Read a “boy and his dog” by ellison. My daughter’s teacher gave them a hypothetical situation. If it was the apocalypse who among the classmates would they pick as a partner to try to survive with? My daughter picked the fattest girl.

      • That reminds me of a true-life incident: when the Lewis and Clark expedition dissolved, a group of four men found themselves heading through the trackless wilderness, back east to civilization. One of them was obese, and two of the remaining three wanted to leave him. But the third man was a friend of the fat guy, and insisted they include him.

        Fast-forward to a few months later, when the four men finally arrived back at civilization: the three men who started out fit were down to skin and bones; while the guy who started out fat was faring much better.

        So you never can tell….

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  38. Globo-homo thought taking Netflix and pornhub from the Russians would break them. So far it has not. But threaten the Boomers pension and the knives will come out.

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      • I asked HR to reduce the percentage of my paycheck going towards my 401K. I’d probably cash it out now if it weren’t for the inevitable penalties.

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        • Maniac: We’re considering what to do with both our 401k and IRA accounts. Old enough that ‘merely’ confiscatory taxes apply rather than additional penalties, but more concerned with future governmental assimilation/digitalization. And inflation eating away an additional % each month is also a concern. I’m old enough to get SS but it would be entirely eaten up by taxes and transferred to Shaniqua because my husband’s current salary means we’re wypipo taking more than our fair share.

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        • Back in ’09 when I was “outsourced” by my employer, I had already lost all trust in the banking larceny system and its insistence on penalizing me for taking possession of my own money. I quickly concluded that something was better than nothing, cashed out, and paid those outrageous taxes + penalties. I’m happier for it, and haven’t participated in any “201k” schemes since.

        • You can borrow from it usually. Sorta act to stretch out your exposure. You can also withdraw it and replace it within a year with no penalties for health or other reasons. The year can be extended. I’m no finance guy so don’t take that to the bank.

  39. “the Russians have had the chance to test their S-400 surface-to-air missile system against serious opposition. It turns out to be as lethal as advertised, able to take out aircraft from over 250-miles away.”

    Which betrays the utter stupidity and recklessness of the idiots calling for a “no-fly zone.”

    A no-fly zone would involve shooting down Russian combat aircraft. Of course, those Russian aircraft are supporting Russian ground troops — who have and are naturally going to use SAMs to take out the NATO aircraft destroying their air cover. The NATO response would then be to target the ground troops with the SAMs — and bingo, you’ve escalated into a full-blown war against the Russian military.

    If I’m just a keyboard warrior and I can figure this out over a cup of coffee in the morning, why can’t the geniuses in the State Department, the Pentagon, and the Senate Foreign Affairs Committe understand it?

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    • They do. It’s the morons in Washington (as always) that are calling the shots.

      Although I suppose it is possible that the upper echelons have been so riddled and rotted with faggotry, Jewish money changers, and affirmative action hires that basic tactics are beyond them…

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      • Glenfilthie: Strategy, not tactics. Strategy is for generals, tactics are for captains.

    • Where would these NATO planes enforcing the no fly zone be based?

      I’ve read that one of the reasons that the Russians have failed to,establish air supremacy over Ukraine is that NATO is fly AWACS in the vicinity and giving the information to the Ukrainians. Open hostilities would lead to those AWACS being targeted and drive off one way or another, which would improve the Russians situation on the short term. And then where exactly would the planes fly from to engage the Russians? I’m unaware of any major US airbases in the vicinity. Moving several carrier groups into the Black Sea would be very risky to say the least.

      • > Where would these NATO planes enforcing the no fly zone be based?

        Nonsense. The U.S. would just deploy some fighters from our nearby Bagra… oh, fuck!

  40. Guided missiles are having the revolutionary impact on warfare that firearms had in the 15th century. And like that example will take a century or so to fully develop.

    Firearms upended the military paradigm that had existed for millennia. Armor became obsolete. So did fixed fortifications. And pre existing military expertise. It took a decade of training and a huge investment in resources to field an army of mounted knights, or on the steppe one of mounted archers. Castles and fortified towns were enormously expensive in time and material and required entire a high level of economic and culture focus to achieve. All literally blown away in a century by minimally trained men with explosive black powder.

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    • The interesting byproduct of the tech revolution in armaments is that we are returning to an older form of war. In the second Chechen war, the Russians adapted by using special units to clear one building at a time in an up close and personal way. They are using the same tactics in Ukraine. It takes longer and it is bloodier, but the alternative is carpet bombing cities and towns. We are also seeing the Russians use the old fashioned tactic of encirclement. Again, this is bloody, but it works to starve out an entrenched defender.

      The thing is, the West is incapable of this brand of fighting. We simply lack the will to lose that many soldiers to gain territory.

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      • The boomerwaffen on the normiecon sites (see Steve Green at PJMedia) are all high fiving each other about a report that the Russians have lost 10000 to 15000 KIA. None of these smooth brains ever seem to wonder why we are not hearing any breathless reports of UKR casualties. One of the more neutral analysts I have been watching on youtube was very skeptical of this number as it would exceed the casualty rate of some of the most bloody battles in WWII. He pointed out also that if that number WAS real it was highly likely that the UKR had suffered the same amount if not more considering the huge advantage in artillery and ground attack aircraft/missiles the Russians have.

        Reading these guys reminds me of the opening scene of “Gone With the Wind” where the southern plantation owner society party is interrupted by the announcement of the shelling of Fort Sumpter. They all cheered and proclaimed they would “Whoop them Yankees and be back home for Christmas!”

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          • Agreed. If that number was real, the internet would be filled with high-def video footage of massive, WW2-style tank battles. Instead we see undated footage of the occasional blown-out tank or dead infantryman.

            Honestly, I think the public (certainly the media) are disappointed there’s not *more* bloodshed.

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          • Yeah, when they claim the donbas campaign has casualty rates higher than Omaha Beach, something is not right.

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        • ” … a report that the Russians have lost 10000 to 15000 KIA.”

          And this in spite of the fact that Western media reported 130,000 Russian troops in the whole action. The 15,000 figure would be KIA of more than 10%, and that ignores wounded and missing. The casualties would be higher than in any war in human history. But there you are–TV mediates reality for MOST Westerners. We’ve SEEN it in operation for going on three yrs.

          “Reading these guys reminds me of the opening scene of “Gone With the Wind” where the southern plantation owner society party is interrupted by the announcement of the shelling of Fort Sumpter.”

          At the premiere of GWTW in December 1939 in Atlanta, when the scene of Scarlett going to the train station to fetch Dr Meade back to deliver Melanie’s baby, and the camera pulls slowly back to show many thousands of wounded and dying men lying on the ground, Margaret Mitchell’s husband, John Marsh, leaned over to her and said, “If we’d had that many men, we’d have won the war.”

          And it’s “Sumter,” no “m.”

      • The West doesn’t need more territory and there is no one to occupy it. Invade say Canada and what? Give it to the Amish? Sure we could increase our standard of living by looting but any decent resistance can make resource extraction incredibly costly.

        No babies means no need for lebansraum

        The Russia/Ukraine situation is unusual in that Russia is basically trying to take land occupied by ethnic Russians in lieu of having more babies and some other areas to shore up borders and along the way shank the US

        If China went into Taiwan it would be for similar reasons

        This doesn’t mean war will stop only that its going to be border skirmishes, small wars civil wars and the like as it was through most of history.

        Depending on how long it goes on after the “desperation wars” like this one are done , we should see less large scale warfare simply because no people, no problem.

    • And – I am no armoured cav guy… but the new T14’s are fascinating. It will be interesting if Vlad can get them into production because he is going to need them soon.

      • I’m not sure he will need them. The hypersonic missiles like Kalibr and Khinjal while not truly hypersonic appear to work really well and Russia has nuclear payloads as needed.

        Standoff weapons than artillery than air support than finally the rest rather than massed tank battles.

    • The Javelin system is designed to counter the explosive armor. It used a tandem warhead one warhead to detonate any explosive armor and a primary warhead to penetrate base armor.

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      • Depends who ya read and believe, Z. The Russians are saying their new stuff on the T14 will counter weapons specifically like the Javelin so who knows. We shall see…

      • i predict a counter that works by detecting an incoming javelin, then launching something akin to a depth charge, that explodes away from the tank, in the path of the javelin.

        • I believe Our Greatest Ally already has a similar system installed on their tanks that they’ve offered to share with the US.

        • There are videos of such weapons in development and testing. Whether they are deployed or not, I do not know. But I’ve seen the tests—assuming you can believe anything from the MIC.

        • Yep; that is exactly what the new Gen 4 armour on the T14’s purports to do.

          I can see a variant of the Patriot missile concept adapted to tanks to…

      • Yes and the Javs are also designed to attack the weakest part of a tank, the top. Typically very little armor is used (due to weight generally) on the top surface of the turret. This design cannot be changed or augmented without completely redesigning the tank itself.
        Combined with 80%+ hit rate of a fire and forget system, this is incredibly devastating for armored columns, especially when they are not skilled in practicing combined arms maneuver to reduce the threat of anti-armor systems.
        There are more advanced reactive systems created to defeat ATGMs at a greater stand-off distance, but the Russians don’t really have any that work or have them in any numbers.

        (Former USMC 0352 here, this tank/anti-tank warfare is giving me a chub…)

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