Next Phase Of The Ukraine War

It has been a year since the Russians began the process of shifting from a limited military operation to a full-scale war. After the Ukrainians withdrew from settlement talks in Turkey, the Russians realized the West was in it is for the long haul, so they had to adjust to this new reality. The first thing they did was appoint General Sergey Surovikin to take control of military operations in Ukraine. Then came a mobilization of 300,000 additional forces to support the war in the Ukraine.

What followed was a campaign of missile attacks on Ukrainian power plants, rail hubs and strategic infacilities. Then came the mass use of UAVs to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems. This was all part of the general shift from a quick conflict aimed at a negotiated settlement to a long grinding war of attrition. The purpose of this new Russian strategy was to slowly destroy Ukraine’s ability to conduct offensive operations with an eye on eventually destroying their military.

A year into this new war, the results are close to what many predicted when the Russians shifted to this model. The West lacks to military industrial capacity for this sort of warfare, so the supply of weapons to Ukraine has declined. Meanwhile, the Russians degraded Ukrainian air defenses to the point where they can now stage constant air raids on Ukrainian supply lines. The long talked about Ukrainian offensive has been indefinitely delayed as a result of these attacks.

It is hard to know what is happening inside Ukraine due to the tsunami of propaganda from the media and the volunteer army of regime toadies online. Trivial events are rolled up into glorious narratives that have no bearing on reality. When the Wagner forces captured the remaining high-rises in the city of Bakhmut, Western sources reported that Ukraine was staging a counter attack to encircle them. In reality the Ukrainians were simply staging a fighting retreat from their positions.

That said, it is becoming clear that the Ukrainians are in trouble militarily and the end may be closer than many realize. For starters, Zelensky now spends most of his time outside the country. Some have speculated that he thinks the end could come at any minute and would prefer to be elsewhere when it happens. For over a year he was doing zoom sessions from his bunker to entertain Western media. Over the last month he has found any reason to be outside the country.

General Zaluzhnyi, the man in charge of the Ukrainian army, has been mysteriously absent for over a month. One short video of him was released, after the Ukrainians put out a series of fake stories about his whereabouts. The man in charge of the defense of Bakhmut has also been keeping an unusually low profile. As with Zaluzhnyi, General Oleksandr Syrskyi was fond of entertaining Western media. Over the last month he has not made any media appearances.

Then there is the new tactic by the Ukrainians of launching drone attacks against civilian targets inside Russia. The first attack was a month ago that targeted the Kremlin before the big Russian holiday. Then there was the very weird attack on a border village with Ukrainians pretending to be anti-Putin Russian militants, using American equipment to stage an uprising. Last weekend, there was a wave of primitive drones sent at Moscow, with a few striking apartment buildings.

Of course, the weirdest thing to happen recently is the long running hype about a Ukrainian counter-offensive that was due a few months ago. It was supposedly set for March, but then was delayed due to weather. Then it was delayed until early May due to logistics and then delayed again for unknown reasons. Meanwhile the Russians have intensified their attacks on Ukrainian supply lines. Maybe one has to do with the other, but no one seems to be interested in the answer.

Maybe this is all 4-D chess, but the parsimonious answer is that things are starting to unravel in Ukraine. A year of increasing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s military industrial system has degraded their ability to fight. Two months ago General Milley said Ukrainian air defenses were near collapse. A couple of weeks ago a New Yorker pieced confirmed speculation that Ukraine was short of ammunition. The spike in Russian air activity over Ukraine suggests they now control the skies.

The weird behavior of Ukrainian leadership and the decline in activity by the Ukrainian military suggests their capacity to fight is critically low. The sudden use of insurgent-style tactics, championed by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence, may signal a shift in Ukraine in response to reality on the ground. What Zelensky and his generals may be preparing for is something like what happened in Iraq. The military collapses, but in a way gives rise to an organized insurgency.

This may be the final play by Washington. The neocons have been circulating a Korean-style end to the war. The Russians keep and hold their positions and the Ukrainians, with Western support, hold their positions. There is no logical reason for the Russians to accept something they have for something they do not want. If they keep fighting, they will soon break the spirit of the Ukrainian army and prevent the West from resupplying them with new weapons.

On the other hand, if Washington turns the west of Ukraine into a launching pad for Ukrainian terrorist attacks on Russia, maybe the Kremlin is willing to consider a deal similar to the Korean solution. There is history for this. In the Second World War Ukrainian nationalist worked with the Nazis to attack Russia. Today’s Ukrainian nationalist consider Stepan Bandera, the leader of the nationalists during the war, as a hero and example to follow.

This shift would have several benefits. One it would give Washington an excuse for not dealing with the issue. Useful idiots like Lyndsey Graham could be counted on to call the terrorists “freedom fighters” as he did with ISIS. It would reduce the cost to Washington, as terrorism can be funded at a fraction of a land war. Primarily, it would require Russia to keep fighting after the Ukrainian army was defeated. You can see the appeal of this to the neocons.

It is unlikely that the Russians would accept a Korean-style partitioning of Ukraine, if it means NATO operating in the rest of Ukraine. The neocons probably assume this, so they will move ahead with their insurgency plan. Since this will no doubt spill into EU countries like Poland and Germany, which have millions of Ukrainian refugees now, this has the added benefit of keeping Europe dependent on Washington. Terrorist chaos on the border of Europe is good for the neocon cause.

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143 thoughts on “Next Phase Of The Ukraine War

  1. Pingback: DYSPEPSIA GENERATION » Blog Archive » Today in War

  2. I can see the love the neocons would have for turning Ukraine into a Libya or Iraq with American Empire funded insurgents undermining the country and creating a nightmare for Russia at their border but will the Ukrainians go along?

    With all the fake numbers being tossed around by both sides it is hard to know how many trained Ukrainian military soldiers have been killed and how many are still alive and want to fight. If the New Yorker article covered by Moon of Alabama is legit, many of the men on the front were grabbed off the street and only had a few days of training. In other words they are simply canon fodder.

    Is there a sizable supply of Ukraine troops in reserve? If not, I don’t see a taxi driver who didn’t want to fight wanting to wage guerrilla warfare.

    I could see the American Empire importing jihadis from the middle east now that peace is threatening to break out there with the promise that they can eventually turn their focus to Europe. Who knows but the collapse of the Ukraine poses a lot of possibilities for distabilization of Europe.

    And to think Sweden and Finland are anxious to get into this shitshow.

    • Z: “Lyndsey Graham could be counted on to call the terrorists ‘freedom fighters’ as he did with ISIS”

      If anyone could give me a URL for that ISIS quote by L’il Miss Lady Bugs, I would be most grateful.

    • Wait, are you making sharks with laser beams strapped to their heads? Is there a preorder option?

  3. I’ve been looking for the MIC and DOD, at some point, to chicken out and quit because their wunderwaffen are being shown up as expensive, complex failures. So far nothing they have sent over there has come across as a big success. The Patriot has again been exposed as a fraud, the various AFVs and IFVs have been failures and the HIMARS and other missiles have been ineffective.

    Now I’m waiting to see the Abrams burn and F-16s go down in flames. The F-35 will probably never see action to protect its foreign sales. And I saw an article about engine life on the F-35 today, it’s going to be about 20% shorter than expected and will require more frequent service and rebuilding.

    If I’m a foreign country, I’m going to get to know my Russian embassy staff really well and start buying their stuff. And that goes for stuff like small arms too.The GAE won’t be the mercahnt of death to the world much longer if this plays out.

    • I think this is why we started to see the idea of a cease fire floated. As if it could be theirs just for the asking. The GAE having gotten accustomed to wars it could turn on or off at will.

      • There’s no way there will be a ceasefire…The Russians are toying with the Ukrainian military, and taking few casualties, apart from Wagner’s convicts..They are also learning how to deal with NATO’s weapon systems, which Rand is raising an alarm about…It couldn’t be going better…

    • Won’t happen.

      The MIC drones are unbelievably high on their own supply.

  4. On Z’s point about Ukie terrorism spilling into Europe: Does anybody remember when there was an actual Left? Not neo-cons or trannybots but people who actually cultivated a Left critique of the American Empire. They were often fond of pointing out that, given the antics of outfits like the CIA and MI6, a case could be made that the US and NATO were actually the biggest sponsors of terrorism around the globe. They would say things like Noam Chomsky once did — “if you want to end terrorism, stop supporting it.”

    Not many people took them seriously and they usually needed to go to Latin America or the Middle East to find places where a case could be made for the GAE killing non-combatants for political gain. Even those sympathetic to these ideas did their sympathizing from a safe distance. Now it seems our European allies may soon find themselves getting freedom fried in car bombings or machine gunned in night clubs for the sake of Freedumb and Democrazy in Ukraine. Will this cause a rebirth of the Euro-Left that isn’t totally focused on gay sex? Will the European Left *and* Right use this and things like the Nordstream terrorism to finally realize that AMERICA IS NOT OUR FRIEND. I know it’s probably too much to hope for but if GAE terror continues to hit closer to the heartland of the Empire maybe even Murricans will put away their Freedumb Fries forever and have the same epiphany.


    • The “Left” are the new grillers, although grillers is the wrong word to apply to them. They are to the GAE today what the grillers were to the GAE in the Reagan era.

      • That’s actually a brilliant insight and chilling. Look at how long it took a handful of conservatards finally to awake. This is all like watching a slow motion train wreck at this point
        Terrifying, to be blunt.

      • Makes me wonder to what degree my disgust with the left is simply because now by being in power they have all the dumb people on their side.

  5. The dividing of the world into echo chambers (a subject we touched on the other day), at both the macro and micro levels, has led to most everyone, including apparently GAE leadership, believing their own bs. Which informs every decision made about the war in Ukraine. One cannot even, just for the sake of discussion, propose a contrary viewpoint without being accused of being a Russian agent. Damaging, or perhaps ending, one’s career. Thus, it cannot be expected that GAE objectives will comport with “reality.” Having squelched any questions, the GAE has no defense against its own flawed assumptions.

    To quote Tom Luongo “Allowing the west to keep thinking they can win is the ultimate form of grinding out a superior opponent.” Thus, piecemeal, a bit at a time, the GAE throws its ordinance into the meatgrinder until there is none left.

    We’ve talked a lot about the industrial mismatch, i.e. Russia’s ability to produce artillery shells vs. the GAE’s ability etc. It only takes 2nd or 3rd grade math for the GAE to know when its stocks get dangerously low at current rate of expenditure. You’d think, in spite of the fear of being called a Russian agent, somebody in the GAE hierarchy might still be willing to speak up and say “hey guys we’re going to run out of ammo by X date.”

    Which creates a “now or never” moment for the GAE before which it must either act, or accept defeat. Which do you think is more likely? If the GAE has some secret ordinance supply that will allow them to keep this up forever, then that is the best kept secret of the war. I don’t think they have it. So what cannot go on forever won’t. We are inexorably approaching that day when the GAE must either use what it has left to escalate, in hopes of a quick decisive victory, or be defeated, whether it “accepts” that defeat or not. Or maybe that day has already come and gone. When there are no more $10 million missiles, then there are no more. “You should admit your situation, there would be more dignity in it.”

    • Mea culpa, for your future posting: ordnance. Ordinances are laws, rules.

    • This gets to the heart of the problem. There is no possibility of reconciliation between the–terms used for convenience’s sake–Right and the Left at this point so there cannot be a modus vivendi front to stop the madness. Everyone from dissidents to True Believers are now hostage to absolutel psychopaths. Whether it was by design or evolved naturally does not matter.

    • What is most interesting about this is the surrender of the ultimate authority to another authority. They effectively made an appeal to the authority that is higher than their God. They made an appeal to the God of the Sodomic Order. The God who is the arbiter of who is included and protected.

      They fell right into Satan’s trap. That is what happens when sportsball players and actors are culture’s leaders.

  6. Before I begin, I would just like to clarify something that is of general interest to the conversation on this blog. The Z-Man is fond of saying that the Cloud People “really believe” their own propaganda about wokeness and the GAE, and this point of view is contrasted with those who think that nobody could be so silly as to believe what Leftists claim to believe, so the woke politicians must really be making cynical bids for power by mouthing the right dogmas. The truth is that each of these points of view is partially right and partially wrong.

    On the one hand, career politicians do have highly developed instincts about what sorts of things to say to advance their own careers, and the “truth” of every utterance, as far as they’re concerned, is merely its utilitarian value in achieving this end. Thus, those who claim they are making cynical bids for power, are not wrong. But on the other hand, they do really “believe” all the nonsense about climate change and electric vehicles and Covid and so forth, so those who claim they are true believers are not wrong, either.

    Where both sides are wrong, however, is in the implicit assumptions that the true believers believe what they believe in the manner of someone who actually knows what they are talking about, or that they pursue power in the manner of someone who ruthlessly calculated a strategy.

    It is fair to say that none of the political defenders of Gaia actually understand real geophysics, none of the Branch Covidians understand much about viruses, and none of the Ukrainiacs actually understand the problems of industrial warfare and economic production in the modern world. They may very well believe in climate change and Glory to Ukraine, but they don’t have a prudent man’s grounds for their belief. The prudent man must make sure that his facts are true, that his thoughts are logical, and that his ends are both desirable and possible within the framework of facts and logic. Leftist “beliefs” do not fit the criteria of what a prudent man believes, thus they are by definition not “truly” believed, no matter how fervently insisted upon.

    Likewise, their grasping at power does not proceed by way of Machiavellian machinations struggling upward, but by sanctimonious demagoguery catering downward. Their desire to appeal to the mass, to the base, to the lowest common denominator, is not so much a cynical tactic as it is a natural process of settling. Their crude thought finds its level in banal, tubthumping slogans and spiteful attacks upon the betters. It is their way because it is the easy way.

    Nobody with this mindset, this dual lack of all intelligence and character, can possibly understand what is going on in Russia today. Russia does not have an end game. For Russia, this is simply life. Ukraine is now the frontier, the dark forest which is never quite emptied or pacified. They are prepared for their campaign to last decades until the West is bankrupted, NATO is broken, and the Americans withdraw from Europe. They no more think about winning a war with Ukraine than a sailor thinks about wining a war with the sea or a Bedouin thinks about winning a war with the sand. They simply live with it until they understand it and transform it into themselves.

    • So Leftists have faith, but they do not know. (Where there is knowledge, there can be no faith.) More evidence that Leftism is ultimately some weird, nihilistic, death cult.

      Superb post, BTW, ID.

    • “The prudent man must make sure that his facts are true, that his thoughts are logical, and that his ends are both desirable and possible within the framework of facts and logic. Leftist “beliefs” do not fit the criteria of what a prudent man believes, thus they are by definition not “truly” believed, no matter how fervently insisted upon”

      You may have begged the premise here ID.

      Even if you did, you are obviously super smart and you don’t spend much time around leftist dumbasses. These fools can convince themselves of 5 impossible things before breakfast, as Lewis Carroll put it. Whether it’s “belief” or not, it’s still deadly to their neighbors.

    • Brilliant comment.

      Even putting aside the propaganda, it has been impossible to discern truth due to the ferocity of belief. As you rightly observed, this is existential for Russia. Can True Believers in the Ukrainian cause grok that? Putting aside merits of argument, the dogma is overwhelming. This is precisely why I think this easily could end in nuclear catastrophe. The elite will not have the last word if well-positioned whores go all jiggly. That’s easily envisioned.

  7. Nothing we can do a damn thing about except for getting our guys to not join. I noticed the head of the Air Force is nominated for Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is a vitriolic anti-white racist who has a new anti-white quota system he is instituting. I pray that the 94% white pilot force just resigns in protest against this guy who hates them and who works for a government bent on the destruction of their nation and their children.

    All we can do is stop enlisting though that is dangerous. That strategy could see us paying foreign legions to physically persecute us in a few years time.

    Whatever weakens this post-revolutionary regime that rules us is what I pray happens. I pray things happen on a timeline where someone aligned with our viewpoint is positioned to capitalize.

    On a positive note, and in terms of where we should focus our energy, it looks like pro-white civil advocacy and education resources are emerging and have men of quality behind them. Let’s invest our energy in these endeavors is that is where our locus of control lies.

    • The reality of current military pilots:

      Like police, they’re tied to their careers because their (very generous) pensions depend on it.

      While they can leave early for civilian flying (there really is a civilian pilot shortage now), the vast majority will continue to work in military reserve units to fill up the pension requirements.

    • Haha, they are a step ahead of the USAF pilots and have mooted a 4-year “retention” extension plan for them. It appears coercive. The final USAF decision is due later this year according to the AF Times.

      • Those retention and extension plans won’t build loyalty if SHTF though. At some point even the most oblivious of them will just walk away because that pension won’t be worth anything and if they stay in uniform they and their families lives won’t be worth anything.

    • “All we can do is stop enlisting though that is dangerous. That strategy could see us paying foreign legions to physically persecute us in a few years time.”

      That torrent of overwhelmingly military aged male illegals pouring over our non-borders may come in quite handy for the political class. Perhaps by design? A twisted version of Starship Troopers – join the military, kill the natives, get citizenship!!

  8. Excellent post as usual.

    I do think one joker in the pack is the NATO exercises in June. While I’m not convinced the current crop of western leaders are so retarded as to use that as cover for a NATO entry into western Ukraine, I can’t entirely rule it out either.

    This force would — so it would be claimed — be there not to engage the Russians, but to ensure western Ukraine’s safety. An attempt to “pre-freeze” the conflict and save western face. They’d cite the Russian military entry into Serbia in 1999 as a precedent.

    Again, I certainly hope Globohomo is not so retarded as to try this, but…

    • Russia knows what this “show of force” is:

      “Sound and fury, signifying nothing” (told by an idiot)

      US gov really, really wants to tangle with China. Ukraine is going to go on the back burner some way, some how.

      • The time to have done that was probably ten or so years ago when there were still some fault lines to exploit. Xe has been every bit as proactive as GAE at purging dubious elites so it’s doubtful there are any fault lines to exploit at this point. And really, our government is so owned by them I have to think this is all drunken bravado.

    • Things never go smoothly when the preferatory phrase is “Our rulers couldnt be so stupid as to do THAT!” See: “Bud Light wouldnt try to market beer to normal White guys with some pervert in makeup taking a bath, that would be stupid!”
      “Our leaders wouldn’t mandate an end to indoor heating, cooking, and plumbing, that would be stupid!”
      Our leaders’ response? “Hold my trannyjuice beer!”
      We are ruled by malicious moronic perverts.

      • “malicious moronic perverts”

        And those are their more appealing characteristics…

      • “We are ruled by malicious moronic perverts.”

        The other side the of coin is that the right loses to them. The inability to defeat such disordered people suggests a degeneracy of a different sort amongst those opposed to the left.

        The mental asylums of a hundred years ago were a microcosm of what all of society has become. Working at an asylum was a very low status position. The “staff” at such institutions were often the type of uneducated person who was barely functional enough to avoid being committed themselves. They were frequently stupid, cruel people who abused the patients.

        Yet, despite how bad the staff performed their duties, the victims couldn’t do anything about it because they were retarded. The same is true of the right who forever lose to the “malicious moronic perverts”

        • In thorough rebuttal: “Dennis Hastert.”
          The “right” in the establishment does not oppose the malicious moronic perverts, they ARE the malicious moronic perverts.

    • As someone more astute than I pointed out, they used similar naval exercises to blow up the Nordstream pipeline.

  9. The Russo-Ukrainian War is military evolution in real-time. We are seeing the emergence of precision stand-off weapons (mostly long range missiles, drones, and glide bombs) as the new main paradigm. Add in C4ISR via satellite and surveillance drone (with the ability to detect IR signatures down to the level of an individual soldier’s location), and the new reality is that if you can be targeted, you can be killed. At which point, it’s all about manufacturing capacity of this new weaponry. And we are at the cusp of implementing “intelligent” and “autonomous” hunter-seeker munitions that be unleashed via land, sea, and air modalities of many types (perhaps including combined arms use of all three simultaneously). It used to be that a minefield was a static thing, but not anymore. Soon there will be no safe place for a human soldier on a hot battlefield.

    Russia is well on the way to establishing preeminence in weaponry industrial manufacturing capability, while the West is drowning in debt and a declining cohort of skilled workers. The illegal alien invasion in all Western nations is also a ticking time bomb of welfare explosion, crime, and civil unrest. You cannot rebuild an industrial base with unskilled welfare dependents and high energy prices, so the West is doomed but doesn’t know it yet.

    Last, Russia’s plan is not to tame Ukraine, but to bury the West. That is their strategy and the Brandon Administration is playing directly into this debacle. Ironically, the only potential redemption for the West is to first collapse and use the fog to rid themselves of the disease that is killing them. Russia is actually doing the West a favor by beating their ass into collapse.

  10. Perhaps someone already commented about him, but just when I think the height of my contempt for L Graham (R – SC) can go no higher, lo and behold he says something to raise the bar yet again.
    My search engine thesaurus provides over 100 synonyms for ‘low life’ – they all apply.

    • Isn’t that the truth. Makes you wonder how he will top this latest one, but you and I know for sure he will find a way.

    • I know elections don’t much matter any longer, but as an SC resident I’m looking forward to the 2026 election when I can vote against him. He is not popular here.

      • If he is not popular, how on earth does he keep getting elected over and over again? Maybe he has been pioneering election fraud for his globalist friends all these years. “Now, Barack, it’s best to fold those fake ballots so it will look like they’ve been mailed. But it’s no big deal if someone forgets.”

        • Same as it ever was: the Party. You only get on the ballot if the Party lets you on. Ms Lindsey gets to decide if he has any competition, and if so who.

          • This is yet another example of why diversity is only a strength to the ruling class as a tool of divide and rule. Southrons have two choices: vote for whoever the Republican-flavored faction of the uniparty puts forth as a candidate, or vote for the explicitly anti-white candidate of the Democrat-flavored faction of the uniparty.

            This kind of rigged game wouldn’t work in Denmark with its multiparty system (multiple choices) where none of the parties actively seeks to end the Danish people. Our American system is designed to sabotague the actual will of the people. (and not by our founding fathers->they didn’t want any parties at all, their greatest mistake was not accounting for their inevitable rise and oligarchic capture)

      • Maxda – I’m upstate SC and as much as I’d prefer… anyone…to the lap dog – he’ll be reelected.

      • Then we really are a satrapy, ruled by puppets of a foreign power. Not an empire, rather, an extension of a hidden empire.

        Did democracy have any defense against this? That was libertarianism’s weakness, no defense against enemies voting themselves into a position to take away your liberty.

    • Yes. Lindsey is a real piece of crap. Suggesting the best investment we could make is to kill Russians. That is bad enough but I guess it escapes Miss Lindsey that Ukrainians are being killed at a much higher rate thanks to our “investments.”

    • Strongly agree. I’ve never been able to find someone from SC to explain to me how this guy keeps getting reelected.

      I’m sure that, before each election, the donors shape the battlefield, by refusing to fund challengers and possibly attacking the challengers.

      I guess that people like to have a senator with lots of seniority and positions on important committees, to bring back the pork to their state. Graham has that.

      I just wonder why their disgust response doesn’t kick in, in spite of all that.

      • I imagine virtually every white South Carolinian–barely a majority of the population, I suspect–is a Griller, and one of the defining traits of the Griller is an absence of the gag reflex. How else could they turn blind eyes to the tsunami of dishonor, depravity and perversion that has engulfed AINO?

        • And, Ostei, lack of a gag reflex also explains how they still buy and peruse, without incident, the SI Swimsuit Issue.

          • Also explains how they can scarf up loads of boiled peanuts without incident…

      • Lindsay’s last primary had 8 people on the ballot, so that any opposition to him was divided. Then in the general you are asking SC grillers to vote for a D if they want Lindsay out. Fat chance.

        • The “D” choices that would be put into power if Lindsey was primary’d are lowlands area black race hustlers that make Jesse Jackson look like that “based highest tested iq” guy.
          And as above, the GOPe will do the “Bernie Sanders 2 step” if someone comes from the right against their broke-back senator. After all, they paid good money to get the tapes on Ms Lindsey, they aint gonna let that go to waste.

          • How would those race hustlers be worse than Miss Lindsey? I’d gladly vote for one of them rather than him/her. At least the race hustlers would stick to their grift rather than try to blow up the world.

    • “Odious pederast” is a good one that I’ve been using to describe him. Believe it came from Andrew Anglin.

    • The Republican voters of South Carolina have proven themselves time and time again to be useless squishes. They’ve inflicted Miss Lyndsey on the rest of us, along with “Vindaloo Vicky” Haley, and Tim Scott for no discernible reason other than SC primary voters pig- headed determination to try to prove once and for all that “DR3” and Scott gives SC Grillers the good feelz because he checks two diversity boxes (black and likely gay).

      Their ancestors who fired on Fort Sumter would be ashamed.

  11. It is a dangerous time IMHO. We have NATO conducting a massive air combat exercise in Europe around the middle of June. This is being advertised as the largest ever NATO military air exercise. A lot of U.S. Air National Guard units will participate as well as regular Air Force units.

    We all know that an air campaign is the preferable form of war to America/NATO. It is also obvious at this point that NATO is not going to win a land war with Russia as currently scripted. So we are in a situation where America/NATO can’t win except, in their view, they wage an air campaign against Russia. With the massive exercises planned they will have the assets in place to do so.

    They could also use the air assets that will be in place to cover a move by NATO from Poland into Western Ukraine and thereby secure their desired rump state. From there they would be free to conduct their “freedom fighter” operations against Russia. Or so the think.

    • Bombers away for War President Biden!

      And if you’re not speaking Russian, you owe your freedom to a tranny pilot of the heroic Tuskegee Orcs.

      Blazes of Glory is the best shot for those poor creatures, I can just see the canned headlines.

      Prescient. I was thinking about 2025, but I’d say you’ve nailed 2024.

      As said here, they aren’t good at considering consequences, only good at doubling down. Clown World is reaching for perfect.

  12. Good post by the Zman. The Russians do face a major problem in how to end this campaign in a way that doesn’t lead to a major drain on their resources, but there are a couple of wild cards that could enormously complicate the plans of the Global American Empire to continue to bleed Russia. The first is the prospect of a war with China or Iran. The GAE is already overstretched and trying to handle two or three wars could lead to military disasters (i,e., aircraft carriers going down with all hands). I doubt the American public, even numbed as it is by an incessant media campaign, would accept losses in the thousands. The military itself might revolt–what would be the attitude of the DC, Maryland, and Virginia National Guards to an order to secure key areas in the DC area and to fire on resisters?

    The other major wild card is the attitude of the European governments. So far, with the exception of Hungary, they’ve been dutiful puppets. There was a mild winter, but the economies of Germany and the UK are weak and the governments are not popular. Continued high energy costs and inflation might provoke changes in governments that result in an unwillingness to continue to support Ukraine in the amounts to which the Ukrainians have become accustomed. I admit this eventuality does not seem likely at the moment, but the GAE cannot regard it as impossible.

    • The other major wild card is the attitude of the European governments.

      That’s not a wild card, they want to destroy Europe’s industry and genocide it’s people, whatever the cost.

      The Danish government has handled Ukraine with all the honesty, restraint and moral integrity of a streetwalker hurting for a fix, and all the economic prudence of a sailor on land leave after 16 months on an icebreaker.

      And nobody seems to mind. They started by giving away all our cruise missiles and artillery to Zelensky (which, admittedly isn’t saying much) and now they’re gearing up to give him our trusty, battle-tested F-16s.

      Plus, of course, oodles and oodles of cold, un-earmarked cash.

      • Giving away one’s military is no big deal when the GAE is de facto your national defense, anyway. If the Danes actually depended upon their own military as anything more than a symbol, their attitudes might be different.

        • True enough. But if our government really wanted to protect Denmark, they’d buy a handful of subs armed with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

          But since Washington wouldn’t allow that, you can’t really blame Danes for being slow to pony up. Our defense policy essentially means bribing US arms manufacturers to have protection under America’s nuclear umbrella.

          Not that stinginess seems to be problem these days: our PM has just dramatically raised defense spending 8 points to meet the NATO-required 2% of GDP for the first time in Danish history. Most of the increase is sent directly to Ukraine, of course, so tax payers don’t mind.

          Coincidentally, Danish media is abuzz with rumors that our PM will be the next secretary general for NATO. Apparently, she’s on her way to Washington for an audience with the Geezer in Chief.

          • Mette Frederiksen and Ursula von der Leyen should mud wrestle for the job of NATO secretary general; that would at least make it entertaining. I’m personally pulling for Ursula; if she does for NATO what she did for the Bundeswehr, NATO may be unable to suppress a Serbian riot in Kosovo.

            The situation in France is roughly as bleak as the one you describe in Denmark. There is a lot of generalized dissatisfaction, but the only opponent to French support for the war in Ukraine is Florian Phillipot; a courageous man, but a voice in the wilderness. It will take a shock to the system to turn public opinion around or even in a different direction.

          • it’s not about how much you spend, it’s all about how much you manufacture.

      • That is bizarre I mean we get crazies in the GAE proper because it is the hive-birthplace of crazies, but why someone like Denmark or Finland would look to actively adopt craziness is perplexing.

        • Collective madness has overtaken the white race. Only the Slavs seem to be at least partially immune.

          • Our immune systems were weakend?

            Prior exposure is the only thing to confer immunity?

            The white pill is, the survivors will be the naturally resistant.

  13. Apologies, but I’m gonna repeat this.
    Reasons, y’all.

    With 46 biolabs and no cultural enrichers, UKR would, hands down, be the very best place to release the SPARS pandemic.

    Whitepeople fallin’ like leaves east to west. Let’s finish the job, and those evil russkies done it!

    • Yes this is terrifying and very few people are talking about it. Victoria Nuland basically admitted it and ……crickets. These people are dangerously crazy. We will all get some frickin anthrax and the politicians will of course have the antidotes from Ft. Detrick while we all rot.

      • On that note, the Health Minister of an Eastern European country made a public announcement, told what she had found, and then resigned her position.

        She found the numbering sequence to the vaccine batches.

        If it ended in:
        a 1: saline solution
        (For politicians)

        a 2: retranscriptase genetic modification

        a 3: turbocancer in 2 years

        Not considering shedding or ethnic targeting, that would be under the “Kiev as Wuhan” scenario.

  14. I figure the drone attacks on civilians are provocations, designed to make the Russians respond in kind so the Western media can have some legitimate war crime to show.

    But I must admit I’m a bit unclear on the rules, here. You’re not obliged to only fight back on your own territory if you’re attacked, so why is everybody so worried that the Ukies would use Western fighters or cruise missiles against (legitimate) targets on Russian soil?

    • I think that there are several effects. When Russians see attacks on their own territory they are more convinced of the necessity to continue the war; the real objective of the Global American Empire and its NATO puppets is the destruction of Holy Mother Russia. Second, it may justify a greater use of conscript forces; if Ukraine is attacking Russia itself, Russian law may permit use of conscripts on the territory of Ukraine, since they would be responding to attacks on Russian territory. Finally, the nature of the attacks has been mostly against civilian targets, which further convinces the Russian population that the objective is destroying Russia and killing Russians (and given the rhetoric from Lindsey Graham, how wrong are they?). Russians could not complain (much, anyway) about a Ukrainian spoiling attack on Russian formations moving to attack Ukrainian territory, but that doesn’t seem to have happened.

      • Good points, very based and black pilled, except Russia wasn’t looking like they were going to throw in the towel any time soon, so why do war crime?

        If it’s not fake and gay, maybe it’s to divert Russia AA resources to protect their cities.

    • From the perspective of international law and tradition, giving Ukraine weapons to defend themselves on their own recognized land is not an act of aggression toward Russia. Giving Ukraine weapons for the purpose of attacking Russia is an act of war, at least the Russians have a right to make the claim.

      That is what freaked out the West about the incursion into Belgorod. Ukraine was supposed to make it look like it was anti-Putin Russians staging a revolt. The pics of NATO vehicles and weapons spoiled the narrative, but also looked like Washington was organizing a raid on Russian territory. I would bet there were back channel calls to the Kremlin disavowing the stunt, which is why Western media dropped it so quickly.

        • That’s right. It seems like a silly distinction, but order depends upon such things.

        • Yep, worlds better if its Ukrainian stuff. Principally, it’s better to source weaponry and materiel as close to the area a clandestine op is going to occur rather than flying stuff in. Simpler supply chain, procurements, higher deniability, but also the added benefit local equipment will tend to be better quality, overall, than the worn out riff-raff offloaded by foreign militaries.

    • I downvoted because there is no sucjh thing as a legitimate target in Russia. They didn’t want or ask for the war and the Ukraine is a terrorist organization pretending to be a nation. Everything they do is terrorism.

    • Ah, but the Ukrainians are not perpetrating these attacks on Russian soil, and against Russian civilians – specifically civilians, mind you – without the direct assistance of NATO. This only adds to the multiple reasons the Russians have to keep on doing what they have been doing that have been listed here by Diversity Heretic. Everyone can clearly see NATO’s hand jammed up the Ukrainians’ asses, controlling their actions, and supplying them with the means to do these things.

  15. The neocons are a big dog and Putin is holding the tail with one hand and slapping the nose with the other hand. They will not let this war end after such humiliation. They probably hate Ukrainians as much as they hate Russians, so the continued destruction is win/win for them.

      • Yep. Think of all the money that will be funneled through countless NGOs set up to import infinity young African males into Kiev and Lvov to replace all the dead Ukrainian men. Everybody wins!

    • Normally, this would be true, but this neocon adventure has some repercussions.

      First, it’s exposing NATO military weakness. None of our weapons have changed the tide of the war and, indeed, are being neutralized by the Russians. Not a good look.

      Second, every day shows the world that our biggest weapon – sanctions and the dollar – can be beaten. In fact, as other countries slowly – so slowly – set up alternative systems, defeating sanctions and the dollar will be easier and easier.

      Third, this adventure is harming Europe and the world can see that the US doesn’t care. Indeed, we’re profiting from it via nat gas sales to Europe.

      Finally, this adventure is draining NATO military supplies, making other adventures more difficult.

      So, sure, the neocons hate Russians and Ukrainians and are happy to watch them kill each other, but they are paying a price for this war.

  16. The evil nature of the US government can’t be overstated. No amount of death and destruction will sate their appetite – of course all couched in high minded rhetoric and morality. I don’t know what it’ll take to rid the world of this noxious, death dealing regime, but somehow it needs to happen.

    • It’s in the process of happening. They’ve spent all the capital they had in terms of legitimacy and are hated the world over. This only leaves force, but corruption means it costs the US 100 times as much to do anything, and by running off all the patriotic whites they’re just left with an army of useless perverts and brown people.

      At some point the US will send in the military to try and force some LGBT/pedo law on a red state like they did with integrating schools, and if they get routed by the state national guard or militias, then that’ll be the end of the Global Anal Empire.

      • Global Anal Empire–good one, Plop.

        As for the GAE being hated the world over, I only wish it were true. Were that the case, there would be mass demonstrations across Europe as was the case in 2003 in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. The fact is, the GAE has moved so far leftward since that time, that its ideology now comports with that of most non-Slavic Europeans.

        As for the rest of the world, it seems not to have a strong opinion about the GAE one way or the other unless they’re being bombed by it, which is not all that uncommon, wot.

      • The final humiliation will probably be when the browns frag the tranny lieutenants and then stand around smoking cigarettes drunk on Dos Equis while the militias storm the state capitals. The force that Milley and his rainbow junta are building has some serious internal fracture lines. I just hope that when burning DC they spare the Smithsonian and a few other spots on the Mall but hey, even if they don’t, that’s what the internet is for.

  17. Well, the “debt ceiling” comic opera was a great opportunity for the few sane Congresscritters to put a stop to this nonsense by cutting off its funding. So we now see that the Uniparty is fully committed to this fiasco in Ukraine.

    This means that there is no obvious off-ramp. The US has risked its prestige on the outcome. Backing down before the election seems impossible. Victory, in any conventional sense, is also impossible. With respect to our host, I think a Korean-style truce is unlikely, as it is completely unacceptable to the Russians and time is on their side.

    So the game theory favors escalation and more provocations as the most likely outcomes. It’s pretty depressing.

    • Methodically, the Russians have been establishing escalation dominance. Yes, their initial stated aim for the SMO was the de-Nazification, and the demilitarization of Ukraine, but as subsequent acts by the West have shown, those goals as stated do not suffice to sufficiently guarantee Russia’s national security, only a deeper discreditation of the GAE will serve. It’s a big bite, and they are moving with deliberation, all credit to them.

  18. As much as the Russians appear to be winning on the battlefield, they definitely have an issue with how to end this war and not get bogged down with what remains of Ukraine for decades to come.

    The Russians have to deal with the fact that they can’t trust the Americans to keep their word, so any agreement where Ukraine and the US agree that Ukraine would be neutral is untenable. That leaves Russia in a bad spot.

    Do they go accept the cost of taking all of Ukraine? Maybe, but that’s a lot of lives and what if you end up in a situation like the British found themselves in Ireland and, late, Northern Ireland. That’s no good.

    The Russians could take eastern and southern Ukraine (most of which is heavily ethnically Russian anyway), which would give them a river barrier and more land between Moscow and the West. But this leaves an independent Ukraine, which will be turned into an armed camp aimed right at Russia. (Granted, the new Ukraine will be a very poor, landlocked country, but the American will still turn it into a staging ground.)

    The Russians don’t face a lot of good choices. Then again, their choice before was ALL of Ukraine in NATO, which was worse.

    • I keep looking for signs of how Russia is planning for the next phase, but nothing so far. They are no doubt thinking about the end game, but I suspect they think it will be done at a negotiating table. This is a classic Russian mistake when dealing with Washington. Even Stalin thought he could have normal relations with Washington.

      • Former Russian President and now the vice-chair of the National security council Dmitry Medvedev few days ago: “This conflict will last for long. For decades probably. This is a new reality.
        It is necessary to destroy the very nature of the Nazi government in Kiev” Medvedev declared, otherwise the conflict could drag on perpetually with “3 years of truce, 2 years of conflict, rinse and repeat.”

        • He’s right. But how do you keep the Ukrainians from rearming and joining NATO without taking over the whole country, which creates a huge nightmare.

          • Ukrainians are running out of the men of fighting age: about 300,000 KIA, maybe the same amount or more are wounded. Hundred of thousands escaped through the Moldavian border by paying at first $5000. and later $10,000 to be let out of Ukraine.
            Presently the bribe to receive false sickness papers is $12000. and persons issuing those papers are becoming quick millionaires.

        • I fully support Russia, of course, but they really should drop the Nazi rhetoric. That blade isn’t cutting. The problem with the Ukraine’s government is not that they’re building new Treblinkas and Sobibors, it is that it’s a puppet of the Satanic GAE.

      • I hope not. The Russians (the world, really) does seem to have learned that they can’t deal with the neocons.

        The underlying theme of all these various efforts with the BRICs and others is “get me away from these people.” It’s not so much confrontation as escape.

        Recently, the Chinese military refused to talk to the American military. They know that we can’t be trusted, so what’s the point.

    • Perhaps the object is now to conquer all of the Ukraine and then convert it into a nominally soveriegn neutral state. A big, flat Switzerland. Doing so might obviate anti-Russian terrorism, and would relieve Russia of the onerous task of having to occupy and continually pacify the Ukraine. By the same token–and assuming intense Russian vigilance–the GAE’s influence in the Ukraine could be eliminated.

      • Certainly preferable to outright annexation, but any Russian involvement in the West would probably involve some kind of indirect rule anyway.

        Problem is, as long as this hypothetical state has any ties to Russia (which, as a subject, it naturally would) will create something equivalent to Japan’s Manchukuo or America’s Iraq: not only does it create unrest and insurgencies for years to come (Manchukuo wasn’t ‘pacified’ until almost ten years after seizure,) but it would also be universally unrecognized and turn Russia into a global pariah.

  19. I hope zelenski gets the mussolini treatment, Russia takes it all & exposes all the shenanigans the us has been up to in Ukraine.
    Pivot to China
    Couple carrier groups get harpooned,
    Game over.
    Tara Reed just defected to Russia, safe bet considering the hell that’s inevitable here.

    • With 46 biolabs and no cultural enrichers, UKR would, hands down, be the very best place to release the SPARS pandemic.

      Wypipo, fallin’ like leaves east to west. Let’s finish the job, and those evil russkies done it!

    • It’s the America Last reasons for supporting Ukraine. How can anyone say an America First policy is being involved in foreign wars?

      Empire is the price we are paying for America’s “diversity” We have 3rd world counties to the South, a friendly Western country to the North and giant moats on the East and West. The only reason we even have this enormous military is because of the last foreign war we had no business being involved in.

      • “…is because of the last foreign war we had no business being involved in.”
        That’s not true. The US saved the world for democracy. Like the Imperial British Empire and the Soviet Union.

  20. “Ukraine just needs two weeks to flatten the Russians.” – General Anthony Fauci

    For anyone thinking the gulf between what was promised and what was delivered will harm our regime, think again. They become fascinated with a toy but discard it just as quickly, then it’s on to the next thing. In the 80s they told us all we had to do was let them get their way and South Africa would be a paradise. They got their way and now the country has one machine capable of making driver’s licenses, and it’s broken. But they move on, and never admit they’re wrong, and never admit defeat, and because they have the bullhorn (as Steve Sailer calls it) reality is whatever they say it is. They never make that mistake that Lot’s wife made; they never look back.

    It gets back to Z’s post on the internet the other day. It’s not just changed social arrangements for the worse, from the real to the virtual, it’s also probably rewired brains—especially young brains—to wreak devastation on attention spans. Babies still lacking object permanence playing peekaboo have more supple, pattern-recognizing minds than those who kneeled for George Floyd, wore the mask for Fauci, and now fly their little blue and yellow pennant flags. The result is businesses closed and buildings burnt here stateside, and an entire nation in rubble over in Eastern Europe. Every time I see some photo of an old woman weeping in a cratered-out shell of what was once her home I understand why people treated Kaganites like literal vampires in the past. I’d say someone should stuff a garlic bulb in Robert Kagan’s mouth and a drive a stake through his heart, but he’d probably just eat the garlic and you wouldn’t be able to penetrate the layers of blubber to get at the heart.

  21. There was a horrific video a while back of a higher up commander getting fragged by his own troops after ordering them on a suicide mission. Have to wonder if at some point military leadership is going to decide they would rather deal with NATO being angry than getting wiped out by their own soldiers.

    Doubt we’re reaching open rebellion with the rank-and-file yet, but rest assured the new conscripts with a weeks worth of training aren’t exactly the more motivated soldiers around.

    • You know all that money we’ve sent to ‘Kraine?

      I’d bet you that Elensky is making sure his colonels are extremely well-paid since history shows those are typically the guys who stage violent coups.

    • I’ve been hoping for a French 1917-style mutiny in the ranks of the Ukrainian Army. Another good alternative would be the 1918 collapse of the German Army which led to mass surrenders. But probably the instrumentalities of control that Ukraine has will lead to a 1945 fight to the end that finished Nazi Germany

  22. I’m sure there are reasons but this neo-Crimean War is odd. I don’t understand why the Russians don’t make a quick end to it. The Donbass goes to Russia. Lvov and Northwest Ukraine goes back to Poland. Odessa becomes a free port and what’s left of Ukraine become a rump state of wheat fields which has been the foundation of the little bit of independence that Ukraine ever enjoyed.

    If the Asian hegemon is forming from Japan to Johannesberg to become the world power with China in the lead and the U.S./Canada is on the way to becoming the Asian satrapy as our rulers seem to wish, what’s to hold Russia back from clearing out these troublesome Banderistas once and for all?

    • Russians really don’t want to start a nuclear war – or a direct war with NATO which go nuclear once some western armies are destroyed.

      And Russians are Russian – more interested in slowly grinding Ukrainian forces to dust while taking low risks than big risky maneuvers.

    • I can’t see a single compelling interest Russia has in ending this war quickly. Russia is suffering minimal losses, and those losses are mostly by conscripts, convicts, and Wagner mercenaries. There has been virtually no damage to Russian military capabilities.

      By contrast, Ukraine’s military has been effectively destroyed. They made the mistake of throwing their operating military soldiers into the meat grinder to be slaughtered by Russian artillery, and now are conscripting teenagers and old men as cannon fodder for the Russian. Their weapons systems have all been destroyed. Without Western military aid the Ukranians would be shooting rocks with slingshots.

      Politically and economically, time is on Russia’s side. Europe needs cheap oil and gas from Russia far more than Russia needs Europe as a customer. The economic squeeze on European citizens has a far better chance of destroying, or at least hobbling, NATO than any military action could.

      Medvedev recently made the statement that the conflict could last decades. Russia sees no compelling reason to end the conflict, and they are correct.

  23. Meanwhile, the Kraine Keyboard Krew is convinced that direct NATO intervention backed by, “secret ammo stashes and flying saucer squadrons,” is on the way.

    In Serbia, based civvies managed to damage 41 KFOR mercs, 11 seriously, with nary an F-15 or nuke in sight.

    • I wouldn’t want to be in Camp Bondsteel if things really get jiggy in Kosovo. That was NATO’s big prize from the previous war, but I doubt that it would be anything but a wasting asset nowadays, rather an indefensible liability. Just ask those NATO mercs who just got bloodied in northern Kosovo.

  24. This whole stupid thing was out motion by Obama a decade ago. After making it through the Cold War without annihilating each other, we now have idiots supplied with American equipment attacking Russia proper.

    The question is – how stupid do the Ukrainians get before the end? Do they invade Transnistria and try to pull Moldova into the war? Does Poland do something stupid? Or do put out these fires and concentrate on losing the next war with China?

    • My vote goes to all of the above, and maybe a few more not specified in your comment.

  25. “Useful idiots like Lyndsey Graham could be counted on to call the terrorists “freedom fighters” as he did with ISIS.”

    What was the deal with ISIS? Who are/were they really? What was the US role in creating ISIS?

    • We (Obama) gave them money and weapons to sow chaos in the Middle East. The war they started in Syria was the excuse for American troops to occupy the Syrian oil fields. We’ve been stealing oil there ever since.

    • Israel created and funds ISIS to destabilize Syria and take more Syrian territory

      • I have seen the charts of where the oil that originates in the Middle East ends up. It looks like the Iraqi/Kurdish oilfields send the oil to refineries in Israel.

  26. It’s difficult to see a way out of this Neocon shite. The Anglo/White Europeans seem to be living in a kind of dream world where all will be ok in the end. As for Amurica/USA, you are on the way to becoming GreatSowetto.

    • i see a clear way out. the ukraine leadership is captured and/or killed. their military is annihilated. their population is pushed out of the western part of ukraine, into nearby EU countries. and things calm down.

    • Even better: Ukraine collapses, Russia/Wagner rolls all the way to Paris, deposing and hanging the traitor EU puppet governments, throwing migrants out and LGBTQ into the closet. Nationalist governments become the rule throughout Europe, with even Britain cleaning out the Augean stables.

      • I can get behind your plan, it’s the best outcome I can think of right now. I’d like to add that the new Europebreaks off relations with the GAE too.

  27. “von Rundstedt warned Field Marshal Keitel, Chief of the Wehrmacht High Command in Berlin, that unless the front was stabilized, “fundamental decisions” would have to be made. When Kietel complained about the way the battle was going, Von Rundstedt snarled, “If you think you can do any better come down here and lead this filth yourself!” Von Rundstedt’s request to withdraw troops behind the Orne River, in Normandy, was refused on July 1, 1944, at 5:40 PM. He immediately telephoned Field Marshal Keitel, in Berlin. By this time the Red Army had launched its summer offensive which had utterly destroyed Army Group Center, recaptured Minsk, and torn a gaping hole in the Eastern Front defences. After explaining the deteriorating situation to Keitel, Keitel wailed, “What shall we do? What shall we do?” Von Rundstedt replied, “Make peace, you fools! What else can you do?” and hung up. He was relieved of his command the next day…”


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