Whenever the downward trend in Western intelligence gets discussed, the focus is always on the right side of the curve. America is no longer able to get to the moon because NASA is full of diversity, but it also lacks the smart guys it used to have to solve the necessary problems. In other words, the West is no longer able to make these great leaps because the decline in human capital has reduced the number of geniuses that are always needed to make those leaps.
At the heart of this line of thinking is the assumption that a society can only be successful if it is moving forward toward something and expanding in terms of material prosperity and cultural progress. This may be true, but it is one of those assumptions that has been handed down so many times that no one remembers who made the original claim or why they made it. Why must the economy always expand? Why must humanity expand its domain to the stars?
One reason to ask those questions is to think about the other side of the bell curve that gets neglected in these discussions. What happens to a society when the supply of stupid people increases? The model of societal intelligence is always a smooth normal distribution, so when the number of smart people declines it means the number of stupid people must increase. The curve moves left. What is the impact on society when the curve moves beyond some critical point?
The easy answer is Somalia. East Africa has some of the lowest averages IQ’s in the known world so it is used as an example and a warning. Without the interference of the more developed countries of the world, East Africa would quickly move back to a lightly populated land full of pastoral people. The societies of East Africa would look like what we think the world looked prior to agriculture. Life for the people who lived there would be nasty, brutish, and short.
There are a number of problems with this line of thinking. For starters, the West is not going to suddenly drop thirty IQ points. It is a process. According to Ed Dutton and others who have tried to quantify Western IQ decline, every ten years we are losing about one IQ point. Put another way, we are about three hundred years from reaching the level of East Africa if nothing changes. The fact is Western man was never at this point and will never decline to that point.
More important though is the fact that people do not live on the smooth bell curves preferred by those who like modeling things. Model makers are the sort of people who like a tidy universe, so they move back from reality as far as they need to in order to get a model of the subject that is neat and tidy. Smooth normal distributions make for aesthetically pleasing graphs, so it is assumed that everything that needs to be measured will result in a normal distribution.
That is not how intelligence works in daily experience. Instead, it is like a weird set of stairs on which people are various IQ groups stand. The people who are in your IQ group are the people you see every day. The people a step above and below are people you will experience less often. The people several steps above and below are people you rarely encounter. When you do encounter them, you do not notice until something happens the requires intelligence.
For example, when an averagely smart person stops at a sandwich place for lunch, he may run into a low IQ person working there. The guy tasked with keeping the floors clean and stocking the shelves might be a dumb guy. The shop itself is run by a smart guy and he has people mostly at or just below normal level, but he has a few guys a step or two below that for the menial work. If it is a sole proprietorship, then the owner is probably a step above the average person.
This is where to think about the decline in intelligence. In many jobs like this, the owner used to depend on people from the normal step to do the work. Many were young in their first real job. Many were part-time people. These jobs were designed for people at or close to the average IQ of the West. The few people a couple of steps below were supervised officially and unofficially by the normals. Normal people served the normal customers close to their level.
Now, when the curve moves left, the supply of people who can fill the jobs at the sandwich show will also decline along with the supply of guys who can build rockets to take people to the moon. Sure, many of the jobs can be staffed with people a step or two down the IQ staircase, but something else happens too. The demands on the guy running the place and the remaining normal people increases. Suddenly, customers of the sandwich shop experience smart fraction theory.
This is where that staircase image is important. The confusion at the sandwich shop resulting from an overloaded smart fraction means the people on that large average step make direct contact with people several steps below them. They suddenly have to deal with people with whom they lack a common understanding. Assumptions about things like timeliness and efficiency are missing. All of a sudden, lunch becomes a safari into an alien world of incomprehensible ineptitude.
For all of human history, as far as we know, the people of sub-Saharan Africa existed like people everywhere. The typical African lived his life on one of the steps on the IQ staircase, rarely experiencing anyone beyond a step above or below. Then Europeans arrived and the African was suddenly confronted by people several steps above the experience of the average African. Europeans did not just have better stuff. They had an alien and incomprehensible way of thinking about things.
The West is now experiencing the reverse. Through generations of dysgenic cultural policy and mass migration from the global south, your typical European is like the typical African centuries ago. Instead of people with magical abilities to conquer nature, the normal person is experiencing people lacking the basic ability to function in even the most basic jobs. It is not that the sandwich shop is disorganized, but that the people working there are too stupid to be organized.
Roll this out across society and European people are not only experiencing a decline in their own IQ, but they are experiencing people with an IQ several steps below them on a daily basis. Intelligence suddenly moves from the periphery to center stage for the average European person. This means it becomes even more acute for the people a step above them for whom the experience is even starker. Most Europeans are about to go on safari in their own societies.
Just as contact with the West has permanently changed the identity of sub-Saharan Africans, this new process will change Western people and society. If you cannot run the sandwich shop along Western lines due to the decline in intelligence, the guy running it must find a new solution. The dilemma of the sandwich shop owner will play out across that vast middle step on the IQ staircase. The people on that step will have to suddenly recognize the staircase itself.
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