War With Russia

Until recent, few people outside of the Kagan cult and the Pentagon thought about fighting a war with Russia. The former has thought of nothing but such a war since the Roman legions crossed the Alps, while the latter is tasked with wargaming every imaginable scenario, no matter how unlikely. Otherwise, war with Russia stopped being a concern with the end of the Cold War. The only wars anyone needed to think about were the wars against pipsqueak countries in the Middle East.

Of course, the West now finds itself in a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine which could easily tip into a direct war. Former Vice President and current 2024 candidate Mike Pence is promoting the idea of sending American troops to Ukraine. Other than Trump and Ramaswamy, all of the candidates for 2024 want a hot war. The Kagan cult, which runs Biden’s Ukraine policy, is doing all it can to provoke the Russians into something they can use to trigger Article 5.

Assuming war happens, could the West actually win such a war? Until this year, no one thought about this question, outside of the Pentagon. The United States had the world’s best military by far. It has been assumed that a war with Russia would mean certain defeat for the Russian army. The real question was whether the United States could beat both Russia and China at the same time. After eighteen months of war, the answer to the question of war with Russia is not so simple.

For starters you have to deal with the nuclear issue. Russia has 6,257 nuclear warheads and the United States has 5,550. Both sides have more than enough to obliterate the other side. Given the performance of the Russian missile fleet in Ukraine, we can assume that their ICBM’s are in good working order. This means that any conflict that reached the nuclear level would end in both sides being reduced to a premodern state at best.

Both sides know this and both sides know the other side’s process for readying a nuclear launch. Both sides have short-range nukes, but the real county killers are the ICBM’s, so as long as both sides maintain current protocols, neither side would have a reason to pull the trigger on total nuclear war. That leaves some room for using tactical nukes on the battlefield without triggering the end of the world. In fact, both sides would assume all aircraft are nuclear capable.

This is the issue with putting F-16’s into Ukraine. The Russians would have to assume they are flown by NATO crews because they would have to be flown from NATO bases and use NATO communications networks. Further, the F-16 is capable of carrying nuclear weapons, so their appearance over Ukraine will be assumed by the Russians to be NATO seeking to deliver nuclear weapons to the battlefield. The Russians would then be allowed to do the same thing.

If we assume both sides understand the risks of nuclear weapons, a big assumption given the behavior of the Kagan cult, it is possible for NATO to send troops into Ukraine to directly confront the Russian army. Both sides managed many proxy wars and some direct wars with the other side’s proxies during the Cold War, so it is not unthinkable that they could have a direct war without it going nuclear. Both sides could see an advantage in agreeing to such terms.

If we put the nuclear issue to one side for now, we are back to that original question about beating the Russian army. What the last eighteen months has proven is that the Russian army is not the Iraqi army. Washington spent close to ten years training and equipping the Ukrainian army for this war. They have poured untold billions into Ukraine over the course of the war. The West has levied massive sanctions on Russia and yet it is becoming clear that the Russians are winning the war.

One reason for this is the way in which the American military wants to fight is not how this war is being fought. This is a land war between peer armies. NATO would run into the same problems that Ukraine has experienced. They would be sucked into a war of attrition that is conducted from entrenched positions. This is the lesson the US Army War College has drawn from the war. In this paper released last week, they explain some of the realities of a war with Russia in the Ukraine.

The first thing the authors note is the human cost to the American army would be nothing like it has ever experienced. According to their analysis, the United States would suffer more losses in two weeks than it has suffered in twenty years of war in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. They estimate at least three thousand dead and wounded per day. Note they are using Ukraine as an example, which gives a hint as to the real losses Ukraine has suffered in this war.

They also note that NATO would quickly have to tap into its reserves, but this is a bit of a problem as those reserves do not exist. They estimate that NATO would need a reserve force of about 450-thousand men to start the war. The current number is less than 100-thousand men. Attrition war need lots of men, but modern armies need lots of trained men, so the West would need time to build their reserves. Of course, Russia has been doing this for over a year now.

Then you get into material factors. The West has run out of weapons to send to the Ukrainians after eighteen months of war. Granted, the United States still has lots of tanks and fighting vehicles in its inventory for use in a war with Russia, but the lesson so far is those stocks are not enough. Ukraine has burned through thousands of tanks and fighting vehicles. They have used millions of artillery rounds and lost hundreds of Western supplied artillery pieces.

This article in the New York Times gets to the heart of the issue. The economic sanctions have done nothing to limit Russia’s ability to wage this war. More important is the fact that Russian has a greater military industrial capacity than the West. She also has unused capacity that can be quickly converted to making weapons. Russia can make more of the stuff she needs to fight than the West can make, which means the West will have to ramp up production.

Therein lies the problem. There are no factories that can be quickly converted to military use like the Second World War. That means building new, but that also means massive new costs to the West. In that Times article it notes that it costs the West $5,000 to $6,000 to make a 155-millimeter artillery round, but it costs Russia about $600 to produce a comparable 152-millimeter artillery shell. Now apply this math to tanks, and fighting vehicles and you see the problem.

Obviously, war with Russia would mean the West would have to reorganize to fight a war of this scale, but is it possible? Would the populations tolerate the necessary changes to the economy and society? Reorganizing America for total war when most of the country hates the rest of the country is a tall order. Is such a scheme even possible in Europe? Even if we brush aside the internal problems, could the West manage to pull it off in time to avoid defeat?

Thirty years ago, Pat Buchanan ran for president, campaigning, in part, against the de-industrialization of America. One of his points was that nations win wars on their industrial capacity, not their service industry. The same people demanding war with Russia today were gleefully auctioning off the industrial base thirty years ago, telling the working men that they needed to flip burgers. Now that the warmongers need those working men, they are in China, not Pittsburgh.

This is the reality dawning on the world as the Global American Empire flounders in its war against Russia. The Global American Empire is now in decline and the rest of the world is seeing what the Army War College is trying to tell the ruling class. The empire no longer has the capacity to maintain the empire. This is why the endless bluffs from Washington now fall on deaf ears. The question now is not what happens in a war with Russia, but what happens after this war with Russia.

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305 thoughts on “War With Russia

  1. The War College link misses the main problem of an utterly disgusted military family and veterans base.

    We’ve had it, the Constitution is no more, and the professional managerial military leadership can go this time. We swore to the Constitution, the ruling class destroyed it – selling us out along the way – they can hire mercs. No one should work for them except for money.
    > as an aside they speak with respect to the mercs, us they shudder at the sight of – the mercs are all vets. Strange people our elites.

    There’s nothing new here but the toys – not the lessons from Ukraine, not the basics of military tactics forever, not the needs for mobility, the dangers of counterinsurgency and colonial wars, the vast expenditures of ammunition, larger casualties in peer war, electronic war basics (FFS this was standard stuff in the 80s, I was there) …
    …. Worse, the US army has been warning about this all for years, exactly by the way by studying the Ukraine conflict as observers (in short in Ukraine) never mind that the Dems gutted the Industrial base under Clinton. Churchill was a lonely voice in the 1930s, well we were a fucking chorus.

    Pardon me, I can’t bear reading the Prophet Nagl going on and on about his amazing discoveries of the basics. John Nagl IS MR COUNTERINSURGENCY from Iraq, and people warned THEN it would lead us astray.
    Now he discovers the problem, and found some new buzzwords like multi domain orgasms, or something.

    There’s some good stuff in the article amid the bullshit.

  2. Pence, although a distant 5th in the few polls I looked at, I predict will be the Republican Presidential nominee. I’d wager good money on the prospect, but am not aware of any easy [legal] venues available to me.

    • Really does look like a full invasion now. All they need to be carrying is AK-47s.

      I’m crushed to see all of my friends turn their back on this. They won’t talk about it. They have no spirit or fight. They want to watch football and die. Nothing more. Even their kids aren’t that important any more. They know what they’re being exposed to in school. They don’t care.

      What the hell happened to this country? What’s been done to us to make us give up like this?

      • The Boomer generation and the race were destroyed when the Jews unleashed their Weapons of Mass Communication. (WMCs).

    • Houston and its environs have had no-go zones for a long time. This one may be more taco flavored, but you would not have seen many fair skinned milk maidens walking the third ward 30 years ago either.

  3. The current US Army is wholly unprepared to fight the sort of war happening in Uk. No Army officer below the rank of 2 star has had to think about operating in total EMCON conditions (emit and you die,) with no GPS (will be jammed into uselessness,) under near constant threat of artillery bombardment due to total battlefield dominance of drones. That is the reality of war in Uk right now. No one can move unobserved, and artillery is again the king of the battlefield.

    To those ruminating on the draft coming back, think about that for a bit. Where will we train draftees? All the old draft era bases we used to induct draftees are now closed. Where will we get the instructors? Where will the draftees sleep? Not happening, not even a little bit. If tried, the logistics of setting up a draftee army will take longer than the war will take to be lost.

    Lastly, is anyone dumb enough to think that any war with Russia (or China, for that matter) will not involve efforts to disrupt civil order here at home? Does anyone think that Russia (and China) doesn’t have deep cover agents here in the US, just one activation order away from causing massive chaos here at home? Imagine a dozen two man teams doing what 2002 Beltway Sniper Lee Malvo did. Imagine the nationwide chaos that would cause. From Seattle I read about what was going on in LA when Dorner was on the lose, one half trained idiot had the entire law enforcement apparatus of LA tied up for hours. Does anyone think that both Russia and China ignored these incidents?


    This is not to say that global homo won’t try to do this anyway, but we, the dissident right, had better be perfectly aware of what the consequences will be, and that they more than likely will be right in our back yards.

  4. Sure nuclear weapons are in good order. Half of America’s aircraft can’t fly. Over 35% of our ships are inoperable. And the Russians are better? My guess is their readiness is less than half of ours.

    When you operate from assumptions like this you get the war will be over in a week. That was what a year and a half ago?

  5. My Old Man’s 22 year Navy career saved him from the Depression. He learned a good trade and always thought it was worth it, despite the ten days he spent wounded in a life raft. I was drafted near the end of the Vietnam War and spent five years in as well, mostly as a ship’s officer. My father and I convinced my sons not to join up. There is no way my grandsons will ever come under the control of black and/or female officers, even if the Chinese are rolling over the U.S. border. They might as well join the throngs pouring into the U.S. anyway. If they wear civilian clothes, we might not even notice.

  6. I see the genius’s in the US failed to notice that to ship any meaningful amount of materiel will require, well, ships.

    Sightseeing the US Navy Atlantic Reefs will be a popular tourist destination for the Chinese Divers.

  7. Bbbbut, if we go to war against Russia, what happens to our sacred fight against climate change?

    • Rat-face Zelensky just told the entire UN that, “…we’re all failing in the fight against climate change.”

      Problem solved!

    • Don’t worry, our brilliant military strategist Jennifer Granholm wants an all-electric military… I’m sure we’ll kick Russia’s ass easily, particularly if we make AOC Secretary of Defense…

  8. Reasons why many liberal-globalist Jews hate Russia:

    1. for putting a stop to Israel deposing their arch-enemy Assad and for being in alliance with Israel’s biggest threat Iran

    2. because Russia has banned homosexual propaganda and activism, which is one of liberal Jews’ very most favorite things

    3. for Putin ending Yeltsin-era massive financial and natural resources rape by the indigenous ex-Soviet oligarch Jewish financial pirates and also by Bill Browder, Larry Summers, and other Western Jewish financial pirates

    4. for Stalin’s putting an end to the reign of terror of the fanatical Jewish original Bolsheviks

    5. for centuries of Tsarist-era Jewish/Slavic ethnic conflict

    6. for the same reason why they getting into conflict with China – because it is not under their control as part of the GAE

  9. Assuming war happens, could the West actually win such a war? Until this year, no one thought about this question, outside of the Pentagon.

    I wish you wouldn’t make these kinds of blanket assertions about what other people don’t know and don’t think about. As it so happens, I spent a lot of time thinking about exactly that. I even wrote a comment about that before, here on this site, back in April. I concluded sometime around 2004 that Russia’s military technology was superior to the West’s, and their readiness even more superior. Their industrial resource base is the mightiest in the world, with effectively unlimited supplies of oil, natural gas, metals, and agricultural land. Moreover, their economy is optimized for real production rather than profit, a completely different model from the West’s.

    I recognized Ukrainian transit gas pipelines as one of the key fundamental choke points in the world and the basis for the geopolitical intrigue in that country. I wrote a long and exhaustively sourced essay about this back in 2010, not only well before the current unpleasantness, but even before the events of the Maidan. For some years it was hosted somewhere online in PDF format, but I can’t find it anymore.

    I say this not to toot my own horn. My point is that coming to grips with one’s own real tactical situation, with respect to productive capacity and armaments, is one of the basic tasks of responsible adulthood. It’s one of the basic tasks of manhood. There were those of us, like the Pat Buchanan mentioned in the OP, who understood full well exactly what it meant for our country to lose its industrial capacity. We understood it decades ago, and we spent most of our time sidelined and speaking to rooms of uncomprehending normies.

    The situation for the West now is dire, which is fine because the West does not deserve to win anything anyway, and it is better for the world that it does not. The West’s economic empire is collapsing and nothing can arrest the fall. The real, pragmatic, forward-looking thinking today needs to begin with that as a premise, not as a conclusion. We must situate all our thoughts within the context of this eventuality being a certainty, because it is. It stands to reason the those who have been most familiar with this idea, and the most long-practiced in dealing with it, now have a head start in competently analyzing present realities. Heeding their advice would seem to be the prudent move, but more on this later.

    Anyway, the US military is in such a state that it is now losing F-35s. It is not fit for war against Russia. The only thing that might give the West a snowball’s chance in hell is Putin’s inexplicable pussyfooting around, dragging things out when he needs to just win the damn war already.

    • Most everybody agrees the west is in decline, even the bug people. The $64 trillion question is, how fast is the decline?

      • The West is not in decline. The West is already dead. Asking how fast it will decline, when it no longer exists, is like dividing by zero.

        The question now is, “Who will manage the affairs of the post-West?” Will it be someone careful or someone careless?

        The careless are represented by today’s Left. The careful are not represented by anyone of note. Trump, perhaps, comes the closest, but he is only a hint of the greater Caesarism to come.

        • You just wrote, “The West is in decline”; then you say it is dead. Your objection to Z’s opening point is also pretentious, for you are well aware Z is being hyperbolic. Faux indignation does not well suit someone speaking of masculine duties.
          And, for the record, I moved my girls across the country and am doing my best – not with words, but action – to prepare for the co tinued decline of thr West. I would not, however, say the details do not matter. If the West collapses tomorrow is a far different issue than in 40 years, when I think of doing what I can for my darlings.

          • We still enjoy a quality of life far beyond most. Yes, it is declining, and I mourn it. But I go back to King Lear – “The worst is not so long as we can say, This is the worst.”

    • “ As it so happens, I spent a lot of time thinking about exactly that. I even wrote a comment about that before, here on this site, back in April. I concluded…”

      ID, are you really that vain as to keep track of your posts and reference them for us? Wow. What next? Posting a best of collection? I stand in awe.

  10. An aside, re Citizen’s warning that the dollar will remain dominant, funding the aims of the neocons for some time yet. I agree.

    I found that the offshore Eurodollar and T-bond market, much larger than the US national dollar market, came about thanks to a Big Nose in the Nixon administration.

    Nixon’s head of the Treasury, I think, proposed delinking the dollar from repayment in gold due to an impending run by France.

    Big Nose told customers if they exchanged their dollars in European banks, they could avoid a tax on the interest. Sovereigns (such as the USSR) could avoid settlement sanctions.

    Thus, Eurodollars were born, and not necessarily a bad thing. Anything that keeps this creaky boat afloat a bit longer. I really like electricity, fresshwater, and prepackaged food, despite my grumbles.

    • Who are you speaking of, this Big Nose? John Connally was Secretary of the Treasury in August 1971. Bill Simon, who might’ve had Connally’s ear?

      To body onward with my point: neither had a big nose.

    • I tend to agree the dollar will stick around, but it will likely lose a hefty portion of market share. That will at least put a dent in Big Nose plans.

  11. Pingback: DYSPEPSIA GENERATION » Blog Archive » War With Russia

  12. How can the GAE wage war against a serious opponent now? The biggest problem is morale and motivation. They have openly declared war on the very population that gives birth to our warrior class. The war is total. From the symbolic figurehead former president to every advertisement, school brochure, movie, film … From every institution’s anti-white training and hiring, lending and contracting practices. To the calls for reparations to the open stealth reparations already being doled out in huge amounts by paying mobs for prior rioting services rendered to paying billions to non-whites who failed aptitude tests. Finally we have the airports and streets of this country. Sit at the gate and see that you and your stock are maybe 8% of the people amongst a vast ghoulash of foreign hordes.

    They need to wage total war against a formidable alliance of opponents while they are waging total war in the form of a revolution against their key war fighting population. Of course, they will amnesty the foreign hordes in exchange for military service.

    If they do this war, I hope we have some very pissed off people who are cunning and patient who can clean out the usurper’s snake pit when the moment is ripe.

    These people had their century. It was their first chance to run an advanced civilization. They didn’t even have to build it. They just had to have the guile, and cunning to take its reins. The returns are shockingly horrid and only now coming due. On to the next failure with such a vast, sordid banquet of unintended consequences that will beggar belief when all is said and done.

    Btw, just read the Fried book “The Next 100 Years.” What a psychopath. Who or what is this America he is talking about? These people have lost their minds and we need to find a way to take back our inheritance we let them take and play with like a toy.

    • Perhaps that explains Ukraine.
      From there they can work on taking the next horse to ride, Russia/China, energy and industry.

      Ukraine and Iran are the chokepoints of MacKinder’s Eurasia Heartland.

      Grabbing control of the breadbaskets- Ukraine, Netherlands- and the White homeland, Europe, is theirs as well.

      North America will be a bit busy with Greater Brasyl on their hands.

    • Fuckin’-A! We volunteer at one of O’Hare’s USO centers. Most of our night-shift visitors are Navy recruits en route to Great Lakes, cooling their heels before being processed at the lower level of the terminal. Let’s just say that they bear little resemblance to the Fighting Sullivans–longing to see the world beyond Io-way. In fact, the Navy seems to resemble a maritime Foreign Legion; many of them come from, let’s just say, west of the International Date Line, and some are less than fluent in English, One young lady (fluent en Anglais) donated some snack food whose wrapper was tagged in Philippine Pesos. The recruits are mostly free from Attitude or smarminess, but I wonder what a technocratic service can accomplish without guys whose fathers, uncles and grandpappies served, and previously had been open to enlistment. Not anymore.

    • Ukraine, then, is the Owners positioning to ride the next horse- Russia/China, energy and industry, MacKinder’s Eurasia Heartland.

      They rode the Anglo Empire, the Milner Councils, Rhodes Syndicates, Roosevelt’s capture of the Spanish Empire, and the like, with promises of glory.

      Anglos could run the world, with the counsel of their lucifers (chamberlains).

      Ukraine and Iran are the chokepoints of the One Belt.
      Who is funding its buildout?

      With the breadbaskets of Ukraine and Nederlands under the Owner’s thumb, Europe- our homeland- is theirs.

      Meanwhile, the Colonies will be a bit busy with the natives; Greater Brasyl del Norte, One Voice in Oz, and the EFF killing Boers in South Africa.

      All the marbles, folks.
      We are so privileged, really, to see this.

    • >Of course, they will amnesty the foreign hordes in exchange for military service.

      That would explain the southern border crisis… Now, I can’t imagine those foreign hordes being an effective unit* anytime soon, but I also can’t imagine our bureaucrats can think clearly enough to recognize the issue.

      *an irregular force for terrorizing the locals, otoh, I can imagine.

    • > just read the Fried book “The Next 100 Years.” What a psychopath. Who or what is this America he is talking about? These people have lost their minds and we need to find a way to take back our inheritance we let them take and play with like a toy.

      Just read the synopsis on Wikipedia. Many teenagers who read the news would be better at forecasting the future than that guy. There is no consequence in GAE foreign policy for being repeatedly spectacularly wrong. Also, he seems to really really want a war with Japan.

      • War with Japan? The hell? Current Year Japan? Wow. That is something else; like kicking a “sickly yet loyal dog” something else.

        • Maybe he doesn’t right now. But he in 1991 wrote a whole 429 wank fantasy about it, and it looks like it was also a big plot point in his 2009 book that RealityRules references. Maybe he has residual Jewish resentment from the 1940s? Or maybe the guy is just an idiot.

      • What is striking about this book isn’t the forecasting. Here are my lowlights:

        1. He says America is barbaric. Then he says that once America destroys all of its enemies and rules the globe with total dominance from space after defeating a Turkic/Japanese alliance we will step on our great ally Poland and keep them down too. At that point, once we are a galactic hegemon, America will finally be civilized. These guys are so transparent in their misanthropy with planet sized plot holes and brazen admissions of motives it boggles the mind.

        2. America will be paying foreigners to come in by 2030. Well, that is already 35 years behind schedule.

        3. In 2080 Mexico will rise up and already control a vast swath of the traditional American homeland. Those people will be loyal to Mexico, Mexico will be a global power, (all because of the magic of GDP of course), and the US will fight an existential war on its home soil.

        Now that is also 60 years too late. Look at all of the saber rattling Mexico is doing with us already. Of course, his great America saving idea of paying hordes of foreign invaders to keep GDP high turns into an existential crisis in just a few decades.

        Of course it is already an existential crisis. The idiocy of that book is absolutely astounding. That anybody would pay this guy for advice on how to build a durable empire speaks to the decay of this former country.

        The biggest thing though is the exact same thing that stands out about the Stephen Steinleight immigration paper. Namely, he never once considers the people of the country as the nation. America is just a global empire – an abstraction. Its economy is not defined by how it benefits the people but by how the high GDP numbers enable military spending and dominance.

        These people have lost their minds and they have to go.

  13. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine are buying lessons with blood…”

    A grim paper overall.

    But, it is important when reading this to understand that the casualties the Army can inflict each day stand to be equally devastating. The thing everyone misses is that the problems we see in the West when it comes to soft, pampered, generations going to war…those problems exist everywhere.

    The Chinese call their version of millennials the Strawberry Generation. Because they are easily bruised.

    Everyone on both sides has a need to avoid total war. That’s why Trump’s foreign policy is so appealing. “I leave you alone. You leave me aline. We all get rich together.”

    For all the problems Ukraine has, and Ukraine will be ground into a fine powder, it’s not like the Russians have conclusively won. And it’s a war on their border with relatively simple logistics. That this isn’t over already illustrates two important facts:

    – the Russians can no more afford total war than we can
    – their own strawberry generation limits what they can do

    • The only large group of young people I see who are both willing and able to fight, and get downright nasty doing it, are the mestizo cartel soldiers and gangbangers

      • I imagine that’s true but those guys are fighting for drug profits and the turf they care about is basically the parts of the US that it took from Mexico. I don’t think they will be so enthusiastic once they realize that they’ll be fighting for some Becky’s right to chop off her son’s dick and put a dress on him.

        Young Russian men though, are probably quite willing to fight and die for Mother Russia and it’s clear that Putin will be able to make the case that the US is the aggressor. It’s going to be incredibly difficult to convince young American (or other NATO countries) soyboys to put down the video game controller and pick up a rifle to go die in the snow trying to get to Moscow.

        This is actually a huge problem for the Left in general. It can only convince ordinary men to use force on its behalf by attaching its causes to something they respect and value. Desert Storm and Shield were possible because it wasn’t too hard to get even cynical people to understand that having Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in control of half the world’s oil was a bad idea.

        On top of that the US leadership, no matter how limp wristed, privileged, and degenerate it was in reality, was still able to present a face of manly virtue and strength and command the allegiance of the warrior class. All that good will and respect is gone now. Every young man in the South and Midwest today is well aware that any war with Russia will be purely about shoving a giant rainbow colored dildo up its ass – and they probably know that they themselves are next in line for it.

    • Not so sure about a Russian “strawberry generation”. A large.portion of their younger 5th column fled early on, and good riddance. Subsequently, they are doing well in recruitment because the younger ones left are exhibiting a Russian version of being “based”; they value their nation, and are willing to, as prior generations werecompelled, to put themselves in harm’s way to protect their nation and its culture. We should be so lucky.

      Yes, the awareness of the existential nature of this time for Russia and Russians has grown over the last couple of years, but this growing awareness has been helped along by the current behavior and attitudes of the West, and its past perfidies such as Minsk Agreements I and II being lies entered into by Western leaders under entirely false pretences. They’re under siege, and they know it; examples of similar crises from their nation’s long history are not far to seek, and are actively taught to successive generations.

  14. I’m wondering something. Given that we on dissident right here are opposed to war with Russia and characterize it as madness, has your opinion changed on Reagan’s “we win, they lose” brinkmanship in the 80s? I imagine most of us old enough were pro the hardline on the Soviets back in the day.

    Remember, libs were calling Gipper insane for provoking a nuclear power and cons brushed it off and assured us that the USSR would break. The latter happened. So, what are the key differences between then and now that make the confrontation different?

    One, I think, is the GAE maybe believes it can break Russia itself and take it over; not just implode their empire. The other is that people at the time felt Reagan and the govt were on “their side”, all though probably not true. But the economy was good, the industrial base hadn’t dissipated yet, and trannies were not thought of except as figures of horror.

    • However wise the Reagan saber rattling was or wasn’t, it was never so dumb as to instigate a war on Russia’s border that it could not afford to lose. Supplying arms to goatherders in the Hindu Kush is not comparable.

      Brinksmanship can be effective when two conditons are met 1. You’re in a position of strength 2. They really don’t know whether or not you mean it

      BOM was uniquely suited to play that game. They really didn’t know if he was the crazy loose cannon he was portrayed to be. Later unclassified Soviet documents reveal that the politburo similarly did not really know if Reagan was the reckless cowboy the media said he was. So it was effective.

      I’ve long considered that Biden was taking a page from the gipper and trying to rattle Putin’s cage with reckless talk. But he fails on both points. The position of strength isn’t what it used to be, if it is a position of strength at all, and they’ve known Biden for a long, long time, know him well. Maybe better than he knows himself. So he’s not fooling anyone (who matters) with his bluster. And then we get back to the critical point in paragraph 1.

      • what is BOM?

        And while Reagan wasn’t on the Russia border, he did put NUKES in Western Europe; among many other economic and intelligence strategies around the world.

        It’s funny how times change. The Libs clamoring for war with Russia and the (dissident) Right wanting out of the possible nuclear madness.

        The American media of the 80s was certainly liberal (not outwardly insane like now, but still) and hated Reagan and soft-peddled Soviet misdeeds, failures, and atrocities.

        The feeling at the time for patriotic normies was that the Commies were the globalist empire iron fist menance while the good ole US of A was the last bastion of sovereign free, christian people and countries.

        But the latter wasn’t true; not really. The US/Nato was a global empire that did not disband after the Cold War. And that the GAE immediately became the seat of power for ALL globalists, on the Neocon Right and the socialist/liberal Left; both corporate owned and hostile to tradition/religion, to borders, to maintaining wages and living stands, to you name it.

          • I believe that expression can only be understood in the context of a chubby, tattooed blue haired lesbian while screaming at the sky.

        • I’ve heard the theory that the exigencies of the
          Cold War kept Western elites somewhat honest. In other words, while there was still a viable alternative in expansionist communism to Western capitalist liberal democracy, the elites of the West couldn’t simply do whatever they liked to their respective populations for fear of a communist uprising on their own soil.

          • After hearing a clip by Salvador Allende, Presidente del Chile, I must agree.

            How did the Cold War keep them “honest”?

            Fear. Allende was a stone cold Marxist raving about “the aims of the revolutionary government”, the (threatened) “violence of the revolution”, “Marxist principles”, and suchlike.

            Fear. Our rulers knew their heads would be on pikes if the Revolution came (back!) to America.

        • I can’t quite agree with this. During the Cold War, the US actually had a political right with some teeth in its head. And while its myopic focus on global communism allowed the postmodern New Left to batten domestically, the right was still strong and active enough to substantially rein in the sort of madness we see today.

          Alas, once the US won the Cold War, the right seemed to feel its raison d’etre no longer existed, and it tottered off to a shade tree to doze. Now it has atrophied to the extent that it no longer has an iota of power, even if it had the will to use it. All those checks and stays that had kept the Left somewhat under control no longer exist, and America is succumbing to the Left’s congenital insanity.

          All of which is to say that while Cold War America was no immaculate paradise, it was still a great country with some semblance of a traditional moral grounding. Needless to say, that is no longer the case.

          • In other words, The Right was the victim of its own success and defeating the Soviet Union sowed the seeds of the Right’s destruction.

    • 32 trillion in debt? Most of it just since 2008. The military can’t find their newest jet and asks the public for help? Two lost wars, which were initiated on suspect causes? The rest of the world see’s the united states as a paper tiger and new global leadership from Russia and others? The intelligence agencies injecting gender dysphoria/race war into the conversation so Americans can’t focus on the true problem? Should i go on?

      After living thru covid, take that knowledge and look at events you lived thru in the past. Isn’t it strange how they all seem to rhyme when you think about it?

      • I was going to say, “What would the press have said if they lost the equivalent of an F-35 during Reagan” but then I realized there was no equivalent. We’ve lost 2 since 2020. Thanks, Reagan.

      • The US national debt was $1 billion until WW1; after the war to save democracy and central banking; after, it vaulted to $25 billion, then to $49 B by 1941, then from $72 B to $265 B from 1952 to 1962.

        62-70 $303-383 B
        71-76 $409-631 B
        76-90 $2 T

        Not war, but war Debt.
        The income tax and modern credit was born once the financiers, locked in ghettos in Europe, realized that the populace would repay the king’s war debts, even if he lost, died, or was deposed.

        • The Federal Reserve was birthed to permit the finance for wars and other filibustering in service of a metastasizing US empire, by agreeing to the ascendance and control of the currency by transnational banking interests. The citizenry was yoked to responsibility for the preservation of the full faith and credit of the United States by signing off on the Federal Income Tax through a Constitutional amendment; started small, having been bandied about as growing to no more than 2%, but subsequently our role as tax donkeys keeping the bankers in the saddle has grown like topsy. And in the same year, 1913, another constitutional amendment was ratified, supposedly as a “good governance”, anti-corruption measure, removing selection of the States’ Federal Senators from their respective legislatures, dealing a final blow to the State sovereign powers expressed under the REPUBLICAN constitution through the prior arrangement. Hot money, not just nationally, but also internationally given the imperial ambitions of the PTB, could progressively assist in building the world-bestriding Leviathan envisaged.

    • It certainly wasn’t as black and white as I once thought. Also, post-Soviet Russia is not as bad as it was, and the United States is a far worse place now. That’s a really bitter pill to swallow if you lived through the Cold War.

    • We on the dissident right are opposed to the same psychopathic people. They left Russia and Ukraine when the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s and came here. It’s not a coincidence that the US is now the evil empire.

  15. Despite the brown horde flowing in, AINO cannot find enough bodies to staff its menial service industry jobs, let alone think about reindustrialization.

    This showed up in my homepage feed yesterday, seems like canary in the coal mine maybe


    Assuming the GAE has a workable plan, that we just can’t yet see from our vantage point, is a very generous assumption. I think they did have a plan, sanctions etc., but since that failed they are now grasping. Even they know that they are incapable of waging a conventional war against Russia alone, never mind Russia and China simultaneously. So that leaves a choice between nukes or backing down, both of which are unacceptable, so they are sort of looking for a “third way,” and will keep looking, as events overtake them.

    • Agree. They are making it up as they go along. The question I have is how much longer our lapdog media will continue to go along with this fantasy. When the next recession hits full force, we’ll probably find out.

      • The media is the propaganda wing of AINO’s Power Structure. It will go along with the madness for as long as it is told to do so.

    • JZ-

      Go read up on Colony Ridge, outside Houston, TX if you want to learn about the first of many no-go zones the brown horde will create.

      Currently, it covers an area the size of Washington DC with a population of 60-75k. It is projected to grow to 200-250k within a few years.

    • I think the “plan” is to wait for some deus ex machina, maybe a literal asteroid strike, alien invasion, or solar flare, and while waiting for that to happen, hope the Russians do something equally miraculously stupid. Eventually, they will realize that the little green men aren’t coming, and the sun is behaving normally, and they will try to restart the Coof panic. When that fails, they may actually resort to terrorism. I mean they already blew up the pipeline in Germany so why not just more of that?

      I’ve always been skeptical of the conspiracy theories about 9-11 but now I’m not so sure. I really wonder if our rulers ultimate plan to stay in power is just to surf on waves of terror and chaos that they themselves unleash.

      • “ I’ve always been skeptical of the conspiracy theories about 9-11 but now I’m not so sure.”

        Jeessh, what took you so long?

  16. What I fear is a semi-permanent “Phony War”, in which the GAE would get all the benefits of mobilization, but few of the costs of actual combat. Assume limited numbers of NATO enter Ukraine and adopt defensive positions, say west of the Dnieper. The conflict essentially freezes, operations and casualties are carefully managed, and both sides are at loggerheads in perpetuity.

    But just the fact of being “at war with Russia” would let the regime implement their most grandiose plans of censorship and social control- Green Nude Eel rationing of energy and food, internal passports, further election fortifications, reeducation camps, you name it. Hillary Clinton’s wet dream, all brought to you courtesy of the red white and blue.

    • That very well may have started out as the intent but the economic repercussions and China’s unwillingness to play along seems to have been unanticipated and have proved too big of a fly in the ointment. Totalitarianism obviously is rampant now but it has limits.

    • Milley and Stoltenberg had a meeting where they announced “years long” effort to defeat Russia. So yes, this is the plan.

      Of course no one will read the Army War College’s paper. Or pay attention to military leaders. The man in charge, Obama, has no intention of stopping his combination of the Killing Fields and Jonestown Revolutionary Suicide. As a gay mulatto princeling of Kenya, he can have only hate for America as it once existed, because it was built without him. Better to burn it all to the ground and start anew with Year Gay Zero.

      We are going to have War with Russia. Obama decided. We will have conscription (I predicted this months ago), it will be straight White men only, it will be an epic disaster including China too. We will obviously lose as Obama’s mouth is writing checks America’s behind cannot cash. And in the end, Philip K. Dick will be the “sort-of” prophet. The Man in the High Castle will not be Germany/Japan ruling over the corpse of America, but China, Russia, and the Cartels. With the lucky ones in the East.

      But make no mistake — there will be no backing down. Obama decided. That is it.

      • You’re giving the lazy, gay Kenyan too much credit. He was nothing more than a figurehead for the same people Biden is fronting.

        • People will disagree with Whiskey that Kalomara is the High Castle.

          Well, you could say Lenin was just a puppet too.

          A unskilled, rather lazy puppet, unwilling to do an honest day’s work. You could say that, yes.

          Kalorama is two miles away from His former vice-president’s White House. No other President ever back into DC once they’d left.

  17. Over eighty years ago, men and boys went to war for Mom, apple pie, and Betty Grable.

    Today, men and boys are expected to fight for LGBTQIA+, Soylent Green, and Lizzo.

    That is not going to happen today, save at bayonet point.

    • One of the reasons for the change from a conscription army to a “volunteer” army *during* the Vietnam conflict was precisely this change in attitude. The war dragged on, the rank and file died, the people wised up. They no longer believed the conflict was some real existential threat. They came to the conclusion the conflict was a phony war. Morale in the trenches declined and that *plus* stalemate tactics made the war un-winnable.

      War with Russia will prove no more sellable to the American public—unless there is some false flag attack initiated to juice up public opinion, then of course there remains the issue of infrastructure to support such a war. Even in WWII, we took 3+ years to gin up an infrastructure largely existent, but idle from the Great Depression.

      I suspect the American public has a patience of 3-5 years for any major conflict and Ukraine has used up two of those already.

      • There’s a not small percentage of the population now who will actively or passively supporting Russia. A war wouldn’t come off according to the script they have written. No one will make sacrifices for the war effort without stern measures and that will make things worse for the elite.

    • At 47 I’m
      Likely too old, but if things got real and we went to war with Russia, and I was “forced” to fight, I’d rather join the Russian army. In fact, all of the straight white males they try to pull in should do the same. I do not recognize this land mass anymore and my country has been conquered and taken away from me.

      • I’m an American veteran, 63 years old, but not to old to learn Russian if I had to. I agree, the Russians are fighting for our civilization, I’d be proud to fight with them side by side.

  18. “This is the reality dawning on the world as the Global American Empire flounders in its war against Russia.”

    The people who matter in the rest of the world have known this for quite a while. It’s not clear that the stooges and marionettes who masquerade as the “leaders” of North America and Western Europe know this but I hope the people who pull the strings of these brain-dead zombies — namely the MIC — do know this. Even in a limited conventional war the USA will be economically obliterated.

  19. Yes, that little matter about a “limited conscription.” Haha. Today? no way Jose. Nevertheless, the rest of that white paper makes sense on a tech and logistical level wrt threats closer to home. But only if they jettison the DIE bullshit. Did this group of instructors and students at the Army War College assume some other change in thinking the present PTB can’t admit? That’s a big assumption.

    • Yeah, I saw that. Good luck.

      “Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well
      require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.”

      Right there, the authors should have said, “And since that’s never going to happen, we need to rethink our entire global strategy and goals.”

      But everyone likes to keep their job.

    • Here’s the problem. I come from one of those mostly Borderer and Scots-Irish families that’s fought every war from King Philips to the sandboxes. Extended family concensus is “we’re out”. I have four draft eligible children—one of which the Navy took a hard run at for a direct USNR appointment—they ain’t doing it.

  20. The war that must be fought and won is not external to the borders of the USA. And it will be existential and hard fought, as all real wars are. And it will not be fought in the internet virtual space using slogans and bullshit verbiage. And if it is fought smarter rather harder, the pain and harm will be significantly minimized. The latter is a moral virtue.

    With regard to the war in Ukraine, Russia has easily identified, bombed, and destroyed all the large weapons manufacturing facilities native to Ukraine. The only thing they can’t find and destroy are the small covert assembly operations located in basements, garages, and small business backroom storage areas. As little as a 100 SF is all that is needed to produce tactical FPV drones, which are easy to conceal for transport and can now operate at ranges up to 20 km. The game has changed for everyone everywhere.

    • #!. In case most of you may Not have noticed: WE are not created “equal.” Starting with that inarguable Fact, feel free to extrapolate.
      #2. As an American, I really do Not want 3rd world aztecs and their felonious drug-and-slave-smuggling inca cousins anywhere near my military much less my border.
      #3. Prepare for the worst: many of the “81 mill yun” D-rats, RINOs, and their living and dead subversive collaborators have prepared for this but Not for the unitneded consequences.

  21. > The U.S. and NATO lack the manpower for any kind of protracted land war
    > The U.S. and Europe are flooded with millions of low-IQ, fighting age men from the southern hemisphere, looking for work

    Ladies and gentlemen, may I propose a solution?

    • The IQ of the guys from the Southern Hemisphere is high enough for them to take advantage of our Free Stuff, but probably not low enough to stand for getting killed in a white-on-white war in Europe.

      • They seem to have no problems killing each other in the southern hemisphere (although squatemalans are technically from North America).

    • There really is a misunderstanding wrt IQ and modern warfare. You really suffer, and suffer greatly, as the average IQ of a front line soldier declines. A bunch of low IQ third worlders getting into bar fights or cutting each other’s heads off in a Cartel does not equate to a modern fighting force’s needs in the field—and we’ve not even gotten into race and behavior proclivities attached thereto.

      • I was thinking about that with that landmine video in Ukraine. “These guys know they’re surrounded by landmines, but they seem to be doing an awful lot of walking around.”

        • Landmines. Lawsy, I hope garage landmines don’t become a thing.

          I can see it now.
          Palatine too dangerous to get to from South Side Chicago, unless through controlled corridors. A fortune to be made escorting Joliet hookers through the lines, little Oaklawn kids doing the sweeps with long sticks.

  22. Vox Day has been posting regularly on this topic, linking to sources that document the fact that America, and the West in general, no longer have the industrial capacity to win in a war of attrition against Russia or China, much less both. Yesterday he posted a link to this article in The Atlantic:


    The second paragraph opens with the sentence: “Our country could very well lose a large-scale war for lack of weapons and ammunition—but not because of aid to Ukraine.” My mental reply to this sentence was, to paraphrase Tonto, who is “our”, Kemosabe? Good luck finding rough men to risk life and limb for this country after it has spent the past 40-50 years implementing policy designed to destroy its native population.

    • This is not an off the wall recommendation. One of the dirty little secrets of our former conscription process was that it affected the lower classes disproportionately. Rich and powerful people did not send their sons and daughters into the cauldron. Lots of deferments were made available to those folk (under various guises of course).

      Want to draft cannon fodder? Make it real for all classes of people—no deferrals or any sort or guise.

  23. I think conflict with China and Russia is inevitable. It will be the “west” most of Asia and Turkey against China, Iran, and Russia in the next great war. There will be mass mobilization in a few years. That’s why so much immigration is being allowed recently. The need for fresh bodies to fight.


    There will mandatory military service for all people aged 18-35 by 2025. Most young men will sign up to avoid charges of cowardice and diminished marriage prospects. There are big changes coming. In fact, this blog will most likely not exist in a few months for various reasons.

    • I’m sure that shutting down the internet is about the last thing the regime ever wants to do, since shutting it down sacrifices any control over it that they do have or could have. It ends up being one less way they have to control the masses. Similarly, I’m not convinced that they really want to shut down dissident social media. I suspect they prefer us cocooned in our echo chambers, where they can watch us, to the alternative of us no longer being cocooned there. But it’s possible that they are stupid and won’t think this through.

      • “Similarly, I’m not convinced that they really want to shut down dissident social media. I suspect they prefer us cocooned in our echo chambers, where they can watch us, to the alternative of us no longer being cocooned there.”

        This, and it reminds me of private firearms ownership: both provide a false sense of security, although the guns make it a bit harder to hire goons as stormtroopers. Allowing a place to vent doesn’t even have that minor drawback.

      • Our silos inform them- they know exactly what messaging to craft.
        (Hello, Ms. Meloni.)

        Still, it comes out kind of weird, like aliens trying to throw shade in Bubba English. (Bubbonics?)

    • I agree that Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia are forming with Britain as Airstrip One, and immigrants as the expendable backbone of the juntas. They need regular depopulating too in the Four Horseman global economy.

      All but the internet. Not going away, any more than drones, cameras, or pandemics. Too essential a plateau.

      Dissidents will be criminals, sure, but like gypsies or gangbangers, too numerous and inconsequential to squash.

      Still, Australia in the 90s imposed a telephone wire tax that black-holed hundreds of thousands of sites and blog webpages. Dammit I hope we don’t become interesting enough to notice, then again I hope we do.

      I also note that my betters on this site are informed as to the far threat. A cockroach can only attend to the near threat, the rats in the walls, the criminals on the corner. We do what we can with what we have, eh?

  24. What makes me legitimately scared is that the people who will actually decide if we go to war or not have already decided. War is inevitable because the (((tribe))) that governs America and the west want it. They may be smart but are psychopaths and they want their ancestral homeland back. War is inevitable because some (((neocons))) as the Z man calls them have already decided it. Prepare accordingly

    • The problems that will prevent the US/NATO from going to war are many…Inferior weapons (no hypersonic missiles), “manpower” heavily laden with girls, trannies, POC, and reliance on an obsolete but very expensive Navy that will be sunk if it ventures into foreign waters, are but a few of them..The lack of industrial capacity would completely eliminate such thoughts…Finally, it is far from clear that the US nuclear deterrant has been properly maintained, given the long standing tritium shortage….The Pentagon is well aware of these facts at the top levels, and will avoid such a commitment IMO…

      • You don’t need tritium to fashion an atomic bomb. Our small and light weapons do use tritium and “dial a yield” is of great benefit, but if tritium is no longer available, nukes can still be built. Whether these will be useful in modern tactics at that point, I can not state.

  25. I have zero military experience, but what jumps out at me is as this war was gearing up all the talking heads from the military were talking about how Ukraine is tank heaven. It’s the best possible terrain for tanks. If a tank dies, and goes to heaven, it goes to Ukraine and gets 72 virgin tanks. SO looking at every video showing tanks to me a smoldering mess in. that area, perhaps, like the aircraft carrier, the tank no longer makes sense. What I do see if one cool drone video after another.

    I especially like how the German ones performed. May as well have had M3’s stuck in the mud before even reaching the front lines. Probably had heated steering wheels too.

    • Drones are rapidly coming to dominate warfare.. The Russians, having started the SMO behind the curve, have rapidly moved to the forward edge of drone warfare, with drones relaying intelligence real time to the artillery and other drones, as well as effectively killing tanks and other such targets…And they are much much cheaper than the targets they are destroying, putting tanks and other armored vehicles on the endangered species list….

      • Countermeasures will likely happen. The submarine did not make ships obsolete.

        I heard, I think from Scott Ritter that the drones are being captured and changing sides via jammers. They can be jammed which causes them to sit in one place until the battery is dead. Then it falls to the ground and the person who jammed it now has a new drone to fight on their side until captured by the enemy forces in the same way.

        • Sounds like a job for autonomous killbots. Like that Boston Dynamics robot dog, my first thought was you could put a bunch of buzzsaws on it and program it to run towards anything it detects as a person.

          • For the political angle, see Slaughterbots on youtube, if it’s still up.

            Scene 1: College kids in a computer room, dissidents doing what they can.

            Scene 2:
            AI correlating, cross-checking, identifying the “hackers”.

            Scene 3:
            Drones targeting individual killshots amidst a mob of panicked students, fleeing.

    • Tanks still have their uses but they have to have aircover and an infantry screen to operate. The problem is the Ukrainians will never have aircover and if we sent our troops there, they wouldn’t either after day 3. Then it’s WWI and the Russians have far more drones and artillery.

  26. It is a mistake to think a war between Russia and the United States could avoid nuclear war. Neither side could tolerate the other winning so both would have to use nukes if a loss seemed inevitable. There is no victory in such a scenario. A stalemate would not be acceptable, either, because it would be viewed as a loss.

    The United States is totally at fault here because its so-called leaders and perhaps most of its citizens are delusional to the point of mental illness. While it is nice to see the War College still is connected to reality, almost all other institutions are not. Mark Milley is the ultimate bureaucratic hack and after he let slip a few truths along the lines of what you wrote he immediately got savage pushback. Milley will be gone soon and replaced by an Al Sharpton clone. Imagine what a cluster that will be.

    The best way to look at this debacle is to compare it to the open border. The virtue signaling Puritans are so detached from reality that they were fine with Third World parasites pouring across the border until the nanosecond the trash showed up in their neighborhoods. Only then it became a problem. These same psychopathic cretins are supportive of this suicidal war madness right now because it does not affect them directly. Only if they come to see it as interfering with their worthless lives will they demand it stop. How can that be done short of a mushroom cloud? Maybe–maybe–if rationing is imposed and Jayden and Ethan face a draft? If their cell service is disrupted?

    The Russians have been given plenty of historically acceptable reasons to initiate a total war but have not, thank God, because they are not in the clutches of lunatics. They may think that if the GAE is provided a way to exit without being totally humiliated that this can end short of an infinitely larger catastrophe. I’m afraid they are wrong.

    • I would not be surprised if the China/Russia/Iran alliance is far stronger and set in stone than is publicly available, but are doing a slow rollout of things like BRICS to avoid a temper tantrum from D.C.

      • Great point. Iran is supplying drones, the Chinese are obviously supplying artillery shells and semiconductors. The Regime doesn’t seem to want to recognize that China cannot let Russia lose. So we will be fighting all of them. Just insanity.

      • Sure, that’s possible, but the GAE seemed convinced early into this madness that China would be far more neutral. Whether that was due to hubris, insanity, an intelligence failure or some combination thereof, we likely never will know. To be honest, at one point I thought there was some sort of modus vivendi between the GAE and China, but, naaah. It became obvious that hostility toward China escalated soon after the war erupted, likely because it wouldn’t play along.

        • Has everyone forgotten the Marxist prophecy: “[The Capitalists] will sell us the rope …..”? No one ever imagined that the rope would be “Made in China,” courtesy of NAFTA, etc., did they?

      • A more long term issue. One of my kids is in the LNG shipping business and has told me Russia is shifting their hard pipeline delivery infrastructure to deliver to the rest of Asia—China included. Big projects, but once the capital is sunk, you’re gonna use them and it ain’t going back to Europe. PS 1) Europe cannot be wholly supplied by LNG, insufficient tonnage and a critical shortage of FSRU vessels that are needed to deliver directly to distribution systems. 2) much of that gas is being delivered from North American sources (US and Mexico) you can expect US natgas prices to keep rising. Low cost natgas feedstock was one of our former critical strategic competiveness assets.

        • Sooner or later, count on later given the or pervasively propagandized populace, it is going to occur to the Europeans how absolutely contrary to their prospects this hostility to Russia, major source of reasonably priced hydrocarbons and other essential raw material, has been. Actually, they have may already burned all of their bridges, and the situation has become irremediable (lies to Russia about the Minsk Agreements playing no small part), and they will find themselves shit out of luck. It will be interesting to see what happens next as they are perforce deindustrialized.

          • Once Scholtz, Macron, Sunak and all the usual suspects are hanging from lampposts in Europe, they and Russia will make up pretty fast I bet. Of course by then Europe may be African, Arab majority but they’ll get along fine.

          • Don’t the Small Hats have a large Nat Gas field about to come online in the Med? IIRC it’s split between Israeli and Lebanese blocks (in which case sucks to be Lebanese, if past performance is any predictor of the future).

        • Oh man. The Sea Belt, the maritime leg of the One Silk Road.

          I ended up on a job website once, where recruiters and applicants vied for logistics and infrastructure programming.

          It was hot and heavy. Gujarati IT pajeets are in demand. Just think of the shipping volume from the Persian Gulf through the South China Sea.

          (The Paki clerks in shipping insurance offices sell route plans to Somali pirates.)

        • Huge untapped market for soap and indoor plumbing.

          Indians talk a good talk. That’s why their smart fraction does so well in the USA today where talking beats doing.

          For so long as Russia and China are allied in trying to shape the inevitable GAE collapse (they want it to implode rather than explode — obviously out of self-interest/preservation), India ought to STFU and get on with economic and social development. India can only benefit from sitting this one out.

          Of course the GAE will work hard to stir the pot with the Anti-China faction in India because that’s a twofer wrt to damaging India’s relationship with Russia.

          That being said, Indians are @#$%ed up enough to talk themselves into some military adventures in the border regions with China.

          Really, I think the GAE is clutching at straws if it thinks India can be a reliable strategic ally. But that could just be me. I really don’t like ’em.

    • Pro-war-with-Russia Americans name their children Noah and Sophia. Jayden and Ethan are the kids they intend to see killed, in war or otherwise.

      • Those who name their kids Noah and Sophia are horrible problems, true, but a subset of those who name theirs Jayden and Ethan are the ultimately responsible and guilty parties.

      • Aviva and Yael want to know why you left them out.

        What’s Hebrew or Greek for HitWithTheFuckingClueStickThrice?

        We’re going to need new names for our Brahmins’ sprogs.

    • On the remote chance that rationing would/could be implemented, they will exempt themselves from the rationing. Pain and sacrifice are for us, not them.

      Really, not much of what we make would be rationed. Instead, there would be shortages of consumer goods because most of them are made overseas, either by an enemy or the neighborhood of an enemy.

      • If by “they” you mean the Clouds, yes, they will be exempted. But even the Cloud-adjacent will suffer and/or feel the impact of rationing, which with fuel and energy almost certainly would be a requisite for a hot war with Russia. I was referencing the types of drones shocked that illegals could turn up in their neighborhoods. The Clouds in castles behind high walls don’t feel this and could care less.

        • Huh. Drones can fly to castles behind high walls, can’t they.

          Ironic if the Clouds bought consumer-grade air defenses from Russia.

          • Yeah, that’s actually a problem for them. No doubt the air defense systems will be purchased on the black market along with Ukrainian sex slaves.

      • Part of the “beauty” of CBDC, if it ever comes to pass, is the ability to control precisely who is subject to rationing.

    • “The United States is totally at fault here.”

      The masses have no clue. You tell a Normie that Ukraine’s government was destroyed by a CIA coup and Zelensky is an installed puppet, they just blink and talk about stopping Hitler before it’s too late.

      • Exactly this. When properly framed in history, it will be understood that WWIII started in 2014 with the CIA-sponsored color revolution in Ukraine.

    • True, a strategy of “we can go to war but it probably won’t go nuclear” doesn’t sound like a very sound one.

  27. I don’t see us getting into a hot war a with Russia. The MIC is a scam. Fighting third world nations is very profitable as is restocking the NATO countries. The only real defense purpose of MIC is to protect Israel and Russia isn’t a threat.

    The party will end if we have a real war with Russia. And Putin has shown he won’t escalate so better that the gravy train keeps right on moving along

    • Exactly, the neocons are crazy, but they’re not that crazy. And even if they were, they are still not really the people running the show. Even the Kagan Cult works for the people who control the purse strings, and while they share the Kagan Cult’s ethnic hatred toward Russia, they will keep that in check to maintain their power and profits.

      TPTB won’t let the US get directly involved in the war, but they’ll be happy to let it continue. This serves several goals. First, more Russians and Ukrainians die. Second, the MIC get more orders. Third, the American people get more conditioned to the idea that we’re in a new Cold War so financial sacrifices will need to be made by the American people.

      • The war will end on Russian terms. When it does, Russia will expect NATO to behave. If they don’t, and if the silly people running our country continue to poke at the Russians, things will start to go south quickly. Russia is capable of waging a broad, horizontal war against us in a lot of places worldwide. These brushfire engagements could prove exhausting. We’re in no position to anything in Ukraine except declare victory and walk away.

  28. Whatever you do, don’t search for the bio/photo of the US military spokes”woman” for Ukraine. Michael John Cirillo is now a ridiculous she/her/it.
    Most importantly, please don’t let anyone you know consider joining the military.

      • But not terribly surprising. The military often is a no-choice choice for the poor and desperate or a last ditch SOS effort for lost individuals trying to find direction.

    • Repeatedly seeing that spokesthing has become an occupational hazard of browsing Twitter.

      It’s not just that we live in Clown World… it’s becoming so self-parodying that can only be a short time before we become the first civilisation to not collapse but collectively go Maximum Klein Bottle (that being polite Inside-the-Ring-Speak for Goatse).

  29. Good post by the Z-man, on which I have a few thoughts, some of which will repeat the observations of other commenters. On the subject of the use of “tactical” nuclear weapons, in the National Security Decision Making class that I took at the Naval War College in the 1990s, we were told that every time the use of tactical nuclear weapons in central Europe was wargamed, it ended up in a strategic nuclear exchange within 3 to 10 days. In the 1980s, the estimated American dead from such an exchange was 100 million; Russians, 60 million. It’d be much more now and electromagnetic pulse would render recovery a decades-long endeavor. And then there’s radioactive fallout, but you get the picture.

    But assume the war stays non-nuclear. The United States Army would face a situation it has really never had to face-fighting a peer enemy with its own lines of communication, including those to the continental United States, under constant threat of air and naval attack, with resulting losses. Even if the industrial base could be magically conjured up, there’s little assurance that the products would make it to the theater. How many ships does the Navy have for convoy escort duty? How are merchantmen defended against aerial attack from cruise or hypersonic missiles? Yeah, I don’t know either but it may be just as hard to find merchant seamen as infantry if there’s a real war. And then there’s the problem of unloading vessels in ports that are likely to be under attack and moving troops and supporting equipment by road or rail that are likely to under surveillance by drones. By contrast, Russia is fighting in its own front yard–supplies and troops can be moved over shorter distances by rail or road.

    Nor is the Army organized for an extended logistics-intensive war. The U.S. military is quite good at rapid deployment anywhere around the world, a capacity that Russia lacks. But once they get there, they don’t have much in the way of heavy artillery or tanks; a lot of supporting fire has been provided by the Air Force. (The Marines are even more lightly equipped.) But the Air Force is likely to find that it has it’s hands full just defending itself and little capacity to support the Army. And the last time the U.S. Army had to contend with significant aerial opposition was in 1942 in North Africa. Air defense is a neglected art in the U.S. military, but it is something the Russians have practiced intensively and at which they are probably the world’s best. In short, the U.S. military could probably defeat the Russians in Mali or Niger (although not yet in Syria) but the situation in Ukraine would be almost hopeless. Volunteer forces would be clearly inadequate and, remembering the draft and the reaction to it from the 1960s, I just can’t imagine it being reinstituted–I suspect the Parameters’s recommendation was more of a wake up call than a serious proposal.

    One article that I read during my Naval War College days appeared in Parameters, the same publication cited by the Z-man, in 1992: “The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012,” by C.J. Dunlop. The projected origins of a coup over 30 years ago are different from what they might be now, but I would not rule out a coup attempt if the armed forces were ordered on a suicide mission.

    • “In the 1980s, the estimated American dead from such an exchange was 100 million; Russians, 60 million. It’d be much more now and electromagnetic pulse would render recovery a decades-long endeavor. And then there’s radioactive fallout, but you get the picture.”

      “I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed.”

    • Regarding the Navy’s ability to escort convoys, the USN got rid of the Knox and Perry class frigates in the big defense drawdown in the 1990’s. They were the first classes of ships eliminated. All we now have is Burke class destroyers and the LCS class. The Navy has orders for a new class of frigates but it will be too little, too late. Add in the manning issues and we really don’t have much ability to perform convoy escort. We can thank the Peace Dividend and inept Navy leadership for our present situation.

      • Surface vessels are useless in the face of spy satellites, drones, and hypersonic missiles. Any surface ships would be rapidly destroyed in a war with Russia. Trying to supply NATO, even if we possessed the capacity, would be largely an exercise in futility. An expensive one, at that.

      • Thank you for that information about the condition of the Navy. I don’t follow it as closely as I do land warfare. The Navy might join an Army coup if ordered to fight the Russians in the Baltic or the Black Sea–both would likely be suicidal, as large surface ships would be constantly threatened by cruise missiles, submarines (modern diesel-electric boats are very quiet and can remain submerged for up to two weeks) and mines.

        Is there anyone in the Pentagon who can overrule these crazy neo-cons?

        • Is there anyone in the Pentagram who would WANT to “overrule these crazy neo-cons?” The vast majority of the O-6+ cadres are hopelessly corrupt.

          They won’t be going into harm’s way. They are pigs who want to keep getting paid, and not make any waves that might get them exiled from the feeding trough. Especially once all right-leaning white men are out, who would sacrifice anything for our nuevo diversity tranny powerskirt imperial armed forces?

    • Outstanding. On the subject of merchant shipping—there is no effective US flag merchant fleet anymore. MARAD is simply a wreck. We’d be dependent on seizure of foreign flagged container and RoRo vessels for transport. In terms of escort vessels—last roster of active ships I saw likely only had sufficient vessels for carrier task force protection let alone merchant convoy protection. The LCS class ships are basically useless, no range without an oiler and that assumes they won’t break down or shake themselves to pieces under sustained use.

  30. Some wank on Blab made an incredibly astute observation that makes my blood run cold. Want to destroy America? Easy:

    Take a couple hundred Spetznaz soldiers – dress them up as cops – and let them go to town in a black ‘hood. Shoot anything with black skin that moves. Pull out before anyone knows what’s going on and extract. Not a single black in America will question the idea that the police are now bent on black genocide. Race wars will kick off the same day. Arm the blacks and set them on revenge against white America. All out civil war will break out later in the week. Rinse and repeat for Fwance, Britain, and most of Europe. Arm the enraged chit skins and set them against the whites in those countries too …and it’s all over for the Kagan Cult, Globohomo and the jewish donor class.

    There are some seriously smart and evil people on Blab…

    • Or if something like BLM arose that was serious and not a grift and organized black resistance. With multiple Micah Xavier Johnsons in every city, only organized. All the infrastructure is there for the organizing. There are many black organizations that exist solely around being black. If they lured cops with 911 calls, that would quickly end 911 responses. They could cause a lot of chaos. We’re pretty lucky that most of the race stuff is a grift and not serious. Just look at the armed black nationalist groups and imagine them led by serious people and truly wanting to “fight the system”

      • Blacks cannot be organized around military or seditious purposes. They do not possess enough self-discipline and patience.

        • They don’t need to be a highly trained and motivated force to cause a ton of chaos. Just look at the machinery that gets turned on when it suits the powers that be.

          Now imagine that with the cops afraid to respond to 911 calls because of snipers taking out the cops. Some woman calls 911 says her husband is beating the jesus out of her. A couple cops show up and knock at the door. Meanwhile, a couple of snipers on the roof across the street take out the cops with head shots. Then they get off the roof and jump in a car and disappear. If this happens a couple times, the cops will stop showing up. They cannot show up in force large enough to prevent this to every call.

          Then the normal behavior will take over. Fires get started, but the firefighters won’t go and put it out because they don’t want to be shot.

          Civilization relies on voluntary compliance. Without voluntary compliance, there is no civilization.

          • When that scenario becomes widespread, that’s when the current regime will lose whatever legitimacy it has left to it. The foundational responsibility of any government is insuring the physical safety of its citizens. Once that responsibility cannot or will not be carried out, that government loses any legitimacy.

            That’s when the idea of revolution and/or secession will move from the realm of the hypothetical to the possible.

          • “ Civilization relies on voluntary compliance.”

            Damn straight. Basically, we are geared for a relatively peaceful and obedient (to a set of general rules mutually agreed upon) populace. That’s what our entire support structure (police, firemen, court and prison system, etc.) is sized on.

            If that support system is overwhelmed—and we have examples of that—chaos breaks out. People must then assemble together and handle affairs for themselves (vigilantism).

        • Disagree. Their underground scene is highly organized, extensive, and so well camoflagued you don’t even know it’s there.

          The pros are sober, huge, and scary- unless you’re the little white guy who did them a solid and was invited to a party.

          (I’ve also delivered paperstock to a Who porn magazine printer; the presses started at midnight, all the printers were black. The docks in Northridge -delivering blank video cassettes before it was destroyed in an earthquake, that’s where the Who porn video industry HQ’s- those docks were mostly white.)

          Even during the Covid lockdowns , they were holding huge raves in L.A. Heck, garage producers were how hip-hop was born, until the Who’s latched onto that scene.

          They’re like a hidden army ready to be recruited by the Who’s, as were Latinos with the Contra-to-Cartel pipeline.

          Prison is their bootcamp; Aryan Brotherhood and the Angels may be ours.

          • p.s.s.- a funny; the pro’s are also very well dressed, urbane, and articulate.

            One was giving me a tour of the hood.
            He was dressed in a polo shirt, good slacks, office shoes.

            He pointed out a pimp, cruising in a garish electric green Pontiac-

            He said, “see that?
            That’s Nigga Green… for green you don’t work for.

            Advertising like that, he’ll be locked up within the month.”

          • Ah shoot. Postscript to the postscript.

            Those massive train thefts, emptying entire carloads while parked at the yards?

            Those are organized by yours truly, the black gangs- they’re very big in the cannibas dispensaries too, siding with Chinese harvest camps in the remote mountain areas.

          • A bit “meta” But Steve Sailer once noted the racial differences when it comes to “disorganized” and “organized” violence, but others further noted that “unorganized” throngs could be “organized” somewhat with an officer corp made up of…hmm, “higher performers”.

          • No, they can’t

            Cases in point: 1920s People’s Penny Savings Bank, 1990s NAACP.

            Both were robbed from within to bankruprcy.

            One black to another is just another nigga. They go tribal on *each other* at the drop of a hat.

    • The Russians might achieve similar results with a lot less trouble by hacking the system that controls EBT card use. Imagine 72 hours without functioning EBT cards. Hear the battle cry of the Baby Mamas: “Who gonna get dees babies day cheetos and purple drank!” It would make an 18th Century bread riot look like a day at the beach!

      On a more serious note, the Russians might take a cue from the German Operation Greif in 1944, which was a part of their December 1944 attack in the Ardennes (the Battle of the Bulge). German troops dressed in American Army uniforms were parachuted behind the lines to misdirect traffic and otherwise sow confusion. For the most part the operation failed (as did the entire offensive) but the thought that there were Germans in American uniforms thoroughly spooked the otherwise highly-competent American Army of 1944-45. GI’s were interrogating each other at gunpoint with questions like, “Who is Mickey Mouse’s girlfriend?” or “What is a Texas League single?” Even British Field Marshall Montgomery was detained when he, not surprisingly, proved unable to answer Amerian trivia questions. If the homogeneous and battle-tested American Army of 1944-45 had difficulty with a few Germans in American uniforms, imagine the difficulty a polyglott, heterogeneous, diverse NATO force would have dealing with Russians in various NATO uniforms. Accents wouldn’t betray them. And it’s all legal under the laws of war; Otto Sorzeny was acquitted of charges of dressing his men in enemy uniforms-the court decided that the action was a legitimate “ruse of war.” The times ahead look interesting.

      • Although I don’t have any ref’s, perhaps those English speaking Germans were not always so naive wrt American culture and such. Prior to WWII Hitler called upon all Germans to return to their homeland. Any number of ethnic German “Americans” did. Our family was friends with one who returned and became a cook in the Wehrmacht. He returned to America after the war and was a chef when we knew him. My father could never understand how the bastard got back in, but he did.

  31. The government of this former country is a complete and utter joke. They and their predecessors have been doing nothing other than attempting to beat up no account countries who’ve had no ability to fight back in kind since the end of WW2 (North Korea somewhat excepted) and have virtually nothing to show for it. Now majorly and actively involved with a power that can fight back in kind – with no serious amount of equipment and munitions or any capacity of produce them in the massive amounts that would be needed. To say nothing of totally inadequate troop numbers – yeah, just try and re-institute a draft you schmcks. The glory days of WW2 are out of sight in the rear view mirror and everybody except our usual suspects leadership knows it. But keep on blabbing about how Ukraine is the most important issue in generations, along with muh democracy, gay marriage, tranny rights, open borders (except Ukraine) and unlimited abortion…

  32. At first, I didn’t understand how the US military could be so stupid as to only produce a fraction of the shells or materials needed in a real war. Sure, there was the usual corruption answer or bad planning, but, whether by accident or not, they were right to have such limited industrial capacity.

    The reason is simple. There’s zero chance that US public opinion would allow for that kind of war. Three thousand casualties a day. There is no way that the American public would put up with a war where we lost around the same number of men in a month as we did in Vietnam.

    Of course, as the paper notes, we and NATO don’t have enough men to sustain that level of fighting anyway.

    The US is a naval power along the lines of Britain and Athens. Our real power is being able to control the sea and financial lanes. We’ve been shown to be a paper tiger in terms of military power against peer competitors, but we still control the flow of money and goods.

    But even here, we’ve shown weakness. Russia’s economy is fine. What’s more, countries are working to create alternative banking networks to make it even easier to break the American financial blockade. That will take time but it can be done. GAE won’t disappear but its days as the overwhelmingly dominant global superpower are numbered. In a decade, it will be one of several major powers.

    The question is whether the neocons will let that natural process happen without throwing the mother of all temper tantrums.

    • There’s zero chance that US public opinion would allow for that kind of war. Three thousand casualties a day

      It’s not like Vietnam was bad from the get-go. First it’s five a day, then 10, and so on. If they can press-gang a large number of foreign invaders to do a turn of service over there it will obscure the numbers further (“sure 500 were killed today, but 400 of them were Guatemalans so, meh”)

          • And they’re not about to allow themselves to be shipped off to the Kraine as cannon fodder. That’s just silly.

          • If you are a foreign national, here for the goodies, how would you be drafted? Hell, last trial I was on had to have an interpreter for one of our “refugee” cousins from South of the border.

            If drafted, I just pretend not to understand the lingo at the induction center.

      • Well, sure if whites don’t get killed, whites won’t care. But an army made up of Guatemalans wouldn’t be able to even get to Ukraine, much less fight using modern weapons.

        This kind of war requires a lot 100 IQ soldiers. Their families will not be happy about their quick deaths.

        The Russians are right to sit back and grind down the Ukrainians. The US military/MIC will never be able to outproduce them, so wait them out.

        The neocons will first try to get Polish boots on the ground and if that doesn’t work will try to to get US boots on the ground, but I suspect that the US military will finally override them and say no.

        Just as the Ukraine war has shown the limits of US power, it’s showing the limits of neocon power.

      • I saw a comment that the BRICS oil producers are pulling out of the petrodollar in October

        That is, accepting payment in other currencies, en masse; the US can’t sanction them all, or bomb them all.

        I’d no idea Vietnam casualties were Ukraine-level bad; that is a crime against our people that cannot be repaid.

        • The dollar isn’t going anywhere for a long time.

          Govts don’t trade, companies do. Govts can talk all they want about accepting payments in other currencies, but until companies and banks start to accept payment in other currencies, the dollar will remain the global currency.

          No company wants to accept yuan or rubles or the Indian rupee. At the moment, there’s no substitute for the dollar.

          I wish that wasn’t the case, but it is.

          • Caveat: dumb. What strikes me is your statement that companies and banks aren’t willing to trade in yuan. How could China be tomorrow’s juggernaut without a trusted currency?

            Otoh, I guess you could argue GD was the rough part of transitioning to the dollar, but the dollar was backed by gold.

            Gold went to US after WWI, US sovereign debt went to China in recent decades… kind of interesting.

            Maybe puts the lie to the notion that debt is an asset? Like consumption doesn’t ackshually produce value. Or hasn’t it occurred to the masters of the universe?

            Spidey sense says it’s the bubble of all bubbles.

          • Painter reminded me: the BRIC oil producers are backing their play with gold.

            I agree that both it’ll be awhile…
            but that “while” maybe as little as a decade.

            (I am effing scrambling to get penny-ante latifundia set up, and get some crosstalk between producers; trying to start while I’m behind.)

          • You make the assumption that there is a distinction between the government and companies doing the trading. With respect to Chinese goods and foreign oil, at least, there is no reason to believe such assumption.

          • Look, I’m obviously no fan of GAE or dollar dominance. I’m simply pointing out reality.

            The world was switching to dollars as the global reserve asset even before the Petrodollar. Sure, at first, it was Bretton Woods and the gold backing, but after we shut the window, the dollar continued to be the GRC.

            Why do you think the Arab were okay with the petrodollar arrangement? What else would they accept?

            That’s still the case today. Sure, countries (and companies if their govts force them to) can accept other currencies, but what do you do with them?

            I’m Aramco and I get a bunch yuan. Okay, maybe I need some stuff from China but not enough to eat up my yuan. Now, I have yuan. What do I do?

            China’s bond market is basically closed to outsiders so I can store the yuan in Chinese bonds, not that I’d want to anyway. So, I take my yuan and trade it for dollars.

            And that’s for yuan. At least China sells a lot of stuff that people want. What am I going to do with the rupee or whatever Brazil’s currency is? Nothing, except exchange for dollars.

            There’s simply no comparison between the dollar and any other currency in terms acceptance, debt of the govt bond market and financial systems in place.

            The yuan will never be a major currency so long as China runs a trade surplus and has an extremely limited bond market to foreigners. That’s a fact.

            Maybe the BRICs can create a neutral Bancor-type currency, but that’s a massive task. (Remember, it’s taken the dollar 70 years to get to where it is today.) They’ll need the financial infrastructure. They’ll need some way backing the currency. Who holds the gold? How much gold will be held?

            My guess is that the whole Eurodollar system implodes before an alternative currency really comes on the scene. We’re heading toward a global sovereign debt crisis in the next decade or so. From that wreckage, maybe a better system can be created.

            There’s simply too much debt – govt and private – for the system. One way or the other, it has to be brought back into the line.

      • And if the US military were so stupid as to try press ganging immivaders, well, I predict that we would see MFGA, Making Fragging Great Again.

        And if you think the public schools have a problem coping with masses of non-English speaking students, just imagine the military trying to cope with Guatemalan pure Indios whose first language isn’t even Spanish, but their own indigenous tongue. Multiply this to include immivaders from Haiti, Africa, and Asia.

        Well, you know that they wouldn’t even attempt this; instead it’d be white boys being press ganged. No major language problems, and besides, do you think our Little Hat leaders would miss the chance to get a bunch of goys killed? It’d be their fondest dreams coming true, a further exponation of thei Slavic Brother War they’ve got rolling already.

        • I’ve seen pictures of large groups of Whites and invaders, and one looks like potential soldiers and one…does not. Anyway, we’re not having a rational conversation because none of this is rational. If Guillermo is offered infinite gibs for his family if he goes over and tries to kill White people in Europe for a year the Regime would still count that as win-win, especially since they could then market Guillermo and his family as “real Americans”.

      • Evil Sandmich: 400 dead Squatemalans a day is a drop in the bucket.

        “Guatemalans are the sixth-largest population of Hispanic origin living in the United States, accounting for 3% of the U.S. Hispanic population in 2021. From 2000 to 2021, the Guatemalan-origin population increased 336%, growing from 410,000 to 1.8 million. At the same time, the Guatemalan foreign-born population living in the U.S. grew by 222%, from 320,000 in 2000 to 1 million in 2021.”

    • The main issue is the KIC is a total racket now. It was always a bit of a racket in the Cold War, but the necessity of maintaining a real army limited the racketeering. Once the Cold war ended, the MIC became a bust-out. No one wants to make shells because the profits are small. Profits in this case mean political profits. No pol wants to go to the opening of a shell factory. Pols love going to air shows and aircraft carrier dockings.

      • Completely agree. Artillery shells have a profit margin like a grocery store while fighter jets and other high-tech weapons have profit margins like Apple.

        Also, even though the govt is all jazzed up about artillery shells today, what will it be like in five years? Building a factory and training the workers (if I can find them) will take years and then I’m stuck with this operation for decades. Will the US continue to order so many shells a decade down the road? Very questionable.

        As I mentioned, the US really doesn’t have a need for massive shell production because it will never fight that type of war several reasons.

        First, the American public would never stand for that level of casualties. Second, we’d need to reinstitute the draft to get enough qualified men, which won’t happen. Finally, the defense budget will get squeezed by debt/deficit problem, i.e., the govt would have to choose between Boomer’s SS and Medicare or being able to fight a massive war.

        • But most important of all: you would not be able to transport millions of artillery shells to Europe. They would never arrive.

          • The thing to look for, then, would be BRIC suppliersbuilding their own refinery and storage facilites

            For miltary fuel. Perhaps they could start on shipyardstoo.

            Transport is EVERYTHING, especially to commercial and power projection.

          • And as Saml reminded us, those LNG tankers are floating atomic bombs.

            I mean, one going off in Rotterdam or Qatar?
            … or, Houston or Lake Charles (with its huge vinyl chloride plants: East Palestine on the Mississipi Delta-Gulf Coast.)

        • Your choices for the American public—bread & butter, or war—leaves out the aspect of rationing. Boomers—and everybody else—won’t starve, nor will they simply go without treatment. Not pleasant, but can be sold as “fair” and will be soothing in the short term.

          In the long term folk will learn to live with it. Everyone in Europe did in WWII. Indeed, the period of starvation came *after* the war a midst the turmoil of no overreaching authoritarian body to control/distribute resources. Germany hit worse, but also non-belligerent countries like the Netherlands.

          • Ancestor worship by the Who’s, I tell ya.

            Ok, it’s a wickedly lethal deviant aberration, but the good news is, we’re 200 times as old as these guys.

            Our bloodlines go back a million years; their combination, 6,000.

            How could one speculate Semitics built Sumer. They only came to power in it. Harlem on the Tigris.

            Obama didn’t build America, he’ll just claim he did.

            There are no instances of Hebraic architechture. Even “Solomon’s” First Temple was a picture-perfect copy of a temple of Ra.

            I get that Whites repurposed Hebrew Scripture for higher good.

            I honor that, I honor that in us. We flip the inversion back to right side up.

    • Just so. AINO is the most pathetic and contemptable matriarchy this side of Sweden. A negro sportsballer suffers some cardio issues during a football game and the whole country comes to a standstill and bawls like a bleedin’ baby. Anybody really think it has the stones to witness with equanimity thousands of coffins draped in a flag, whether it be rainbow, BLM or stars n’ stripes? Ha! Not bloody likely.

      • Huzzah! Thousands of Wellesley girls, keeling and ululating in a public orgy of grief, salt and mucus unabashedly running down their rouged faces, tearing at their purple hair.

        Their jungle bunnies are home, laid out in coffins in the stadium! Will the club scene ever recover?

  33. The basic fact that Zman had to write an essay on this mere possibility shows that the Regime has gone nuts. This whole scenario is unthinkable. The idea that people are willing to vote for this boggles the mind.

    • Vote for it? C’mon, man. Have we not absorbed the message of how very little our “votes” have to do with policy decisions by now? I am – sadly – increasingly persuaded that all that voting does is to relegitimate the PTB’s grip on power, and all the evil that issues therefrom.

      • I know, I know – “fortified elections”. But there are still people enthusiastically voting for this crap.

    • As an indicator of the Regime’s derangment, the Ukraine War had better get in line, and it’s a mighty long queue at that.

  34. The only positive thing to emerge from this total shit show is the news that the Army War College — unlike every other institution in America, apparently — is still connected to reality.

    Given they’ve just effectively exposed the delusions of the entire U.S. political-media establishment, however, you have to wonder for how long that will be tolerated.

  35. Seems that we’ve flipped the WWII scenario on its head. At the outset, the Germans were technologically superior in almost every weapons system (save strategic bombers). But trapped in a Continental mindset. And discounted both the population disadvantage and the capacity of the Empire + US to simply outproduce them in…everything. Little old Canada (everyone forgets southern Ontario was the other half of Detroit) produced more wheeled transport vehicles than the entirety of Germany + conquered empire in 42 and 43–before they really ramped up. Now US + NATO has alleged technological superiority, but no ability to replace expended munitions and equipment and if you count Russia + remains of empire + China in, a signficant ready manpower and production deficit. And the latter operate on internal lines of supply. There also seems to be little curiousity as to the logic that Putin operates under…just endless bleating “Putin is evil”, “Putin is a war criminal”. I hear it all the time. What I never hear any attempt to understand what his thought process is and thus just what he will risk under certain scenarios. That is exceptionally dangerous. So make sure your potassium iodide is stocked up.

    • Right on! Battles are won by tactics – the U. S. Army is tactically brilliant – but wars are won by logistics

    • I saw a bumper sticker yesterday on a nice work truck outside of a site that said “F(US flag here)K PUTIN. I bet that guy calls himself a conservative.

      • A sad testimony, that. It wasn’t enough death and destruction already on the books for Israhell, so now these idiots want to massively add to this through their mindless support for the Greater Khazaria Project. Larry Fink rubs his hands in deluded anticipation of his desired favorable outcome, and all of that lovely Geld.

        • We attacked Syria when they discovered oil.

          Turns out huge natgas deposits were discovered in the eastern Oblasts of Ukraine in 2011.

  36. I have neighbors who were both grunts in the Marines in their past lived.

    They are salt of the earth people who have a few young sons. The youngest wants to be a Marine “just like mom and dad”.

    I talked with them about the current climate in the Services. They are aware of the shit show that it is.

    I pray he doesn’t choose to be cannon fodder.

    • We know several families with kids in via ROTC or academy. All but one are now out or in process of getting out. Two things—the services provide little forward path if you are not the right type of “vibrancy” or woke enough. They are not. Second, the quality of enlisted is in a nose dive. A friend of mine whose son was a logistics officer, last post, Fort Hood, tell me that the enlisted he was getting couldn’t operate a paper checklist, let alone computerized inventory/order/shipping systems. Or even a forklift. Even if we had the bullets and beans, not sure we could find them.

    • A black vet told me the gangs, black and brown, have been sending their troops into service to learn professional military arts.

      Maybe the latest will teach the gangs some new tricks, eh?
      High heels marching, pregnancy belts, stealing PX supplies for resale, you know, useful stuff. Director’s gigs at Raytheon, influencers 4 Ukraine!

      Now there’s an idea for the parallel economy: veterans’ skillsets. Purely a hobby club, mind you.

      • Meanwhile, back at the Pentagram, they’re worried about white supremacists. Heh.

        The ones to worry about may be the Hispanics with ties to cartels; handy to know the locations of armories, and maybe get some cholos assigned there to exfiltrate armaments. Those people are more organized than the kneegrows.

        • Oh yes, total agreement on the Cholo Corps.

          Prison is their version of Basic; theirs is a culture like the movie Eastern Promises, wherein tatoos serve as officer stripes and medals.

          Cartel in Mexico long ago fired all their street punks and replaced them with Mexican military pros.

          Trained, as were the Contras, by the neocons, excuse me, US military intelligence.

          Narcostates, neocon economics, psyops, surveillance, biowar labs, drone swarms, black markets both Top and bottom- the Warlord Era is going to be a wild, wild ride.

  37. How could the US transport large numbers of men and materiel to Europe? The Russians would sink every surface vessel we own in the Mediterranean and Atlantic. What then? Russia, without resorting to nuclear weapons, could pummel NATO bases from Norway to Spain with complete impunity…no invasion of NATO necessary. Once this were to happen, these silly Europeans would finally awaken from their American vassalage dream bubble.

    • We couldn’t even get many of them or the equipment loaded. Do a little research on the state of MARAD—which is the navy’s semi-civilian transport arm. Few ships, those that exist are poorly maintained. Only option would be to seize foreign owned container ships (lot of Chinese) and crewing them would be near impossible.

      • Yes, the merchant marine has been woefully neglected, quite a turn around from past times. In Colonial and early Republic days, great focus was placed on the availability of national (ship) bottoms, as befits a maritime nation.

        If things were to kick off with the Russians, even convoy tactics would not avail due to developments in extreme long range cruise missile technologies, on which they have placed great emphasis both in regard to the missiles, as well as in their increasing stand off launching options from aerial platforms.

    • Day one of the conflict, even if conventional, all the communications, spy, and gps satellites are shot out of the sky.

      Look up “Kessler Syndrome”

      It’s a world where cell phones and mobile internet go away, probably for the rest of our lives.

    • That’s just it; one thinks the Russians would just stand by – a’la Saddam Hussein – & allow a NATO military buildup on their border? That has to be the height of neocon delusion! Russian submarines would put most of the logistical supplies on the bottom of the Atlantic; they’d never get there. This is beside the point of course because we no longer have the industrial capacity to make weapons & armaments.

      Gut instinct from observations says the U.S. is a hollow shell anymore riding its rapidly fading 1945 glory into the toilet. Everything seems broken: infrastructure, supply chain, spirit, patriotism, faith in the military, etc.

      What’s it going to take for the whole rapidly crumbling structure to completely collapse?

      • “What’s it going to take for the whole rapidly crumbling structure to completely collapse?”

        The GloboHomo regime that rules the GAE seems hellbent on finding out.

      • What’s it going to take? Repurposing the words of Moustache Man, (delusionally referring to the SU) just a little kick, and the whole, rotten structure will collapse. In the case of the US and the comprador allies, these words would not be delusional.

    • We’d lose the transports and a couple of carriers to hypersonic missiles. At that point our crazy leaders probably go nuclear.

  38. The much-demonized Pat Buchanan was right about everything. De-industrialization, mass immigration, and the endless wars. Imagine America today if, back in the 90’s the Buchanan path was followed. The Neocons have been wrong about everything and will continue to be wrong.

      • We’re supposed to believe that each individual in a neocon think tank has an average IQ of 2000. They’re actually looking like low IQ morons compared to the Russians, and this enrages them more. They have to protect their image so they may try something desperate.

        • If it’s anything like the Jews I’ve encountered, they have a severe midwit problem. With a few points higher average IQ that puts a huge number of them in the problem zone where they’re smart enough to tick off all the social checkboxes for a “smart person” leading then to believe themselves geniuses.

          Nearly every Jewish person I’ve encountered was about 20 points below me in IQ and absolutely certain that he was 40 points above me.

    • Wolf Barney: “The Neocons have been wrong about everything and will continue to be wrong.”

      Au contraire.

      The Neocons have been RIGHT about everything and will continue be RIGHT, so long as they have a stranglehold over the banks & the lawfare industrial complex & the edumakashunal industrial complex & the media, both broadcast & social***.

      A war which ensures the destruction of both the United States and Russia – the two most Christian nations on this earth – is precisely the goal of the Neocon agenda.

      On the other hand, Elon Musk going to war with the ADL, and Donald Trump calling out j00z on Rosh Hashanah, are the first signs of goyische flex since maybe Richard Nixon.

      In which case, our meme’ing is beginning to grow roots, and flourish, so meme and Meme and MEME some moar. Saturation meme’ing of the Kultur is the single moast important thing we can be doing right now.

      Saturation meme’ing, and, of course, searching for Pure-B100ded fertile White wombs.


      ***They just deplatformed/demonetized Russell Brand for being too White.

    • Pat Buchanan was the best president the United States never had, just as Enoch Powell was the best prime minister the United Kingdom never had.

      • Indeed, but because both of these estimable gentlemen believed in the preservation of their respective nations, it was incumbent upon the usual suspects to fold, spindle, and mutilate them both.

    • “Imagine America today if, back in the 90’s the Buchanan path was followed.”

      Wasn’t an option. There was no choice.

      • Enoch Powell, Pat Buchanan, and Ross Perot were all systematically destroyed (“cancelled,” in contemporary terms) by the Cloud People.

  39. This is the key part of the paper Z linked:

    “The Individual Ready Reserve,
    which stood at 700,000 in 1973 and 450,000 in 1994, now stands at 76,000.15
    These numbers cannot fill the existing gaps in the active force, let alone
    any casualty replacement or expansion during a large-scale combat operation.
    The implication is that the 1970s concept of an all-volunteer force has outlived
    its shelf life and does not align with the current operating environment. ”

    Any attempt to institute the draft will come with dodging and shenanigans that would make the Vietnam protests seem outright pleasant. The only reason they got away with it in Nam was because there was still living memory of the glory of WWII and the warrior classes still felt honor-bound to fight.

    Add this to the woeful physical shape of our young, and one realizes we simply do not have the military capability for such a military operation as Ukraine anymore. Full mobilization can only happen through a direct attack on American soil and an existential threat like FDR maneuvered to get us into WWII. Even there, it’s looking pretty grim. Most just don’t care.

    The U.S.S.R. managed to conscript enough people to repel the Germans, but we don’t have the capability for Stalinesque policies to force cannon fodder to the front.

    • I doubt there will ever be a draft but I also doubt that there would be any serious protests of it if there was one. Boomer negatives aside, they at least had the foresight to see Vietnam for the incredible waste that it was, and protested it vigorously. I don’t think the T levels are high enough in modern youth to even protest something as stupid as fighting for Ukraine.

      • Step #1 would be to crash the economy which will happen whether they intend it to or not. Step #2 would then be to offer food and housing in exchange for fighting on the Uke front. It’s a solid plan, but I wouldn’t be the farm on it.

        • Oh heck, Sandmich, we’re all Irish immigrants in Union uniform now? Spot on.

          Digital currency: serve or starve.

          Smart cities: the Foxconn of military supply; it’s that or the Wellness Camp for you. Somebody’s got to recycle the toxic heavy metals scrap.

        • Cannon fodder alone is useless. Manufactured supplies and weapons have to be delivered in great quantity to battlefields. Good luck with a busted economy trying to fight a war against a far distant, continent-sized opponent.

          Perhaps Our Rulers are dumb enough to try steps 1 and 2, but the plan will fail when the shooting starts.

    • I don’t know, maybe a full scale assault on DC wiping out our elected officials might unite us. Hope it doesn’t come to that.

  40. The Kagan cult is already winning. Every dead Slav is a win for them and there are a lot of dead Slavs right now. A long war of attrition is an even bigger win for them and a full on hot war between Russia and NATO leading to a lot of dead people all over Europe would be an orgasmic fulfillment of their ancient dreams.

    • Hun: “a full on hot war between Russia and NATO leading to a lot of dead people all over Europe would be an orgasmic fulfillment of their ancient dreams”

      Sorry I didn’t see your poast earlier.

      If I had, then I wouldn’t have had to have typed mine.

  41. Hey all of you former working class stiffs, we are going to need you to leave your coding jobs we advised you to pursue. Dust off those lunch pails and jeans and get ready for good ole factory work. As soon as we can find some buildings suitable to the task.

    George Kennen words resound today from the early 90s. We won the cold war why are we provoking these Russians and it’s leaders who helped bring the soviet system down. Are we the bad guys? Well, not us specifically but those … well, you know .

    • Oh man. I am just loving the mental picture: Industrial America – Where the foundries, the factories, the iron works – where Rosie The Riveter rules from the board room and the manager’s office! We will finally see how diversity is our strength!

      Few people realize that Industrial America is just as screwed as the American military. It is so bad, that if North America somehow brought all the originally offshored business… we probably wouldn’t have the capable workers to deal with it.

      • Hasn’t TSMC basically killed off the Arizona mega semiconductor fab because they found the quality of the available human capital completely lacking?

        • Goddam, Geese, you mean the vaunted semiconductor reshoring was just another Solyndra?

          A shell showcase to raise capital and donate it to Party elections?

          We forget they pulled that with ethanol too. Facilties abandoned, 100,000 skill jobs lost, $100 million in private capital squandered.

      • This is the challenge of bringing back manufacturing. Who is going to work there. The work ethic and skills required have gone the way of the Dodo bird.

        • The whites are all on fent / meth now, anyways. Nobody can pass the whizz quiz.

          The blacks were able to get past New Jack City, that is, crack cocaine. But this meth monkey just won’t get off Whitey’s back.

          Turns out there is enormous Chinese investment in Mexico.

          In fentanyl production. Cartel has found a foreign sponsor.

          • Alzaebo: Spot on. While the neocons obsess over Putin and Taiwan, the Chinese and Mexicans have partnered in all sorts of things, and most cuckservatards haven’t a clue. When/if putative murkins are sent to fight elsewhere, the cartels and their meth/fentanyl partners will have free rein.

      • Undoubtedly, so, Filthie. Like, where are we going to find a sufficiency of tool and die experts, or the experts in so many other essential precursor skill sets to resurrect a functional industrial economy?

        This is what you get when, instead of a consciously formulated and executed industrial policy, you let The Smartest Guys In The Room destroy your industrial and resource extraction sectors so that they can get obscenely rich financializing everything, rentiers born as they all fucking are.

  42. The US volunteer military can’t hit its “peacetime” retention and recruitment targets, implying the need for a draft in a real war. Imagine the pushback against a draft–and the quality of the draftees–if the program ever got started.

  43. Assuming it stays conventional, If the U.S. had the industrial capacity it would be hard to find competent people to work in that sector. Shaniqua and Travon are not going to cut it. The same will be true for the military. Killroy is no longer available in numbers and SOC, assuming they are still competent, will not be able to carry the load against the Russians.

  44. Z kept saying the U.S. needs MEN to fill the military and factory workers ranks.

    Is the Zman really a covert male supremicist?

    • The Z Man is a black jew conspiring to rule the blogosphere with his fellow jewish cohort, (((Cornelius Rye))). They hang out in claptrap clubhouses filled with horrible little pot bellied green frogs with soiled pants. They are ALL a threat to our democracy!!!


  45. I had a similar thought on the F16s but figured that NATO would mix up Uke and NATO pilots on purpose to try and get Russia to shoot down the “wrong” plane.

    Also want to note that too many higher-ups in NATO have played too much Starcraft and carry the belief that all one has to do is stand up a factory and it starts spitting out tanks. A lot of places are finding out that standing up a building and putting a bunch of equipment in it is the easy part, finding anyone to run (or heaven forbid maintain) the equipment is the hard part.

    • Evil Sandmich: “A lot of places are finding out that standing up a building and putting a bunch of equipment in it is the easy part, finding anyone to run (or heaven forbid maintain) the equipment is the hard part.”

      Much of the UAW’s beef with the Big Three [cf the ongoing threats of mass strikes] seems to have coalesced because these new electric vehicles have vastly fewer parts needing to be assembled, ergo there are vastly fewer jobs for vehicle workers both on the assembly line in Detroit and in vehicle repair shops across the nation.

      This moarning, I watched a vidya of a Tesla big rig, moving up the Donner Pass, and passing diesel rigs with ease:


      It was not a good look for Diesel.

      Just off the top of muh head, I would guess that the diesel rig had on the order of 25,000 to 250,000 parts.

      Whereas I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tesla rig had only maybe 2500 to 10,000 parts.

      If muh suspicions are correct – if the electric trucks being built by the likes of Tesla & Ford now comprise two or three orders of magnitude FEWER parts than do their diesel counterparts, and if electric can get a toehold in the marketplace, then I don’t see how you would not have massive layoffs of both workers at the internal-combustion-engine factories & mechanics at independent internal-combustion-engine repair shops around the country.

      And if there’s any truth to such a conspiracy, then a cynic could easily make the argument that “Global Warming” was simply a psyop designed to vastly decrease the number of parts in machinery, and thereby vastly decrease worker payrolls and vastly INCREASE oligarch fortunes.

      • Battery-fueled vehicles are from a tech-demo run amok. Supposedly Toyota has cooked up some industry changing battery tech but that doesn’t escape the fact that it would be even better in a Prius-type implementation than a battery-only mode.

        • I’m not arguing that Electric is superior to Diesel or Gasoline.

          I’m saying that if the Oligarchs can get the idiot politicians on board with a Climate Change psyop, and if an [hypothetical] 25,000 parts per petroleum vehicle can be pared down to an an [hypothetical] 2500 parts per electronic vehicle, then the Oligarchs get:

          A) Massive tax breaks from the politicians [on account of Muh Globull Warming], and

          B) Layoffs of the 9/10ths of the workers who are no longer needed [because the electric vehicles require only 1/10th of the parts as did the petroleum vehicles].

          That’s how Oligarchs get to be Oligarchs: They find [or artificially create] an economic chokepoint and then savage that chokepoint mercilessly.

          Again, all of the above numbers were completely fabricated in muh imagination, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers weren’t off by all that much.

          And I certainly wouldn’t put it past the Oligarchs to mount a scheme like that [scaring the living bejesus outta the sh!tlibs with an Anthropogenic Global Warming psyop so that the Oligarchs can then lay off yuge percentages of pesky suspicious cynical old skrewl rude & unruly & uncouth Blue Collar labor].

      • An electric truck humping up a hill is to be expected given the technology. What is not stated is that the electric truck will now need to stop at the next hill to recharge! 😉

        Awhile back I had a school buddy who worked at the Ford dealership. We talked of the new EV’s Ford had. Specifically the Mustang. He was able to test it and we discussed his drive route in AZ—which went through the Rockies and left The State up North. Been through the “pass” many times. He remarked on how great the car performed, then warned me that no EV could leave the state on a single charge, not even get through these areas without planning several stops to recharge carefully.

        I bought a Ford truck and left Tucson on vacation to Montana. My first fill up was in Salt Lake City, Utah. 😉

      • Running up Pike’s Peak won’t identify the basic economic problem electric semis have: battery capacity. Semis only earn money by running loaded miles, which means long hauls with minimum stops, This is precisely what Diesels are good at. Battery driven trucks fail economically because of frequent and long stops to recharge batteries.

        A diesel semi with 300 gallon tanks can go up to 2,000 miles without refueling. Driver on-the-clock time is the limiting factor for on-the-road time, not refueling. Team driving eliminates that factor.

        • Again, I am NOT talking about the batteries, nor whether Electric even makes any market sense at all [in almost all regions, Electric makes no market sense whatsoever].

          What I am talking about are the LABOR COSTS.

          A) If the Oligarchs [at Tesla & Ford & GM & cetera] can convince the sh!tlib idiots in gubmint to believe the psyop of Globull Warming, and

          B) If the Oligarchs can wring an whole mess of subsidies out of the sh!tlib idiots in gubmint, and

          C) If the Oligarchs can produce Electric vehicles which use only, say, ONE TENTH as many parts [as do the competing internal combustion vehicles], then

          D) The Oligarchs who chose Electric will be able to release 9/10ths of their workforce, and have only 1/10th the labor costs as do the manufacturers of internal combustion vehicles; furthermore,

          E) I can pretty much guar-an-d@mn-tee you that the Electric Oligarchs will NOT lower their prices by 90%. Instead, they will suck up as much of that excess wealth as they can snort into their cocaine-powdered noses.


          Way up above here, there are two excellent poasts about manpower:

          1) Evil Sandmich: “A lot of places are finding out that standing up a building and putting a bunch of equipment in it is the easy part, finding anyone to run (or heaven forbid maintain) the equipment is the hard part.”

          2) Hun: “The Kagan cult is already winning. Every dead Slav is a win for them and there are a lot of dead Slavs right now. A long war of attrition is an even bigger win for them and a full on hot war between Russia and NATO leading to a lot of dead people all over Europe would be an orgasmic fulfillment of their ancient dreams.”


          And I am trying to make the point that neither the Kagan cult nor the industrial Oligarchs give a d@mn about how any of this [neither Hot Wars nor Globull Warming Psyops] affect the average rank-and-file blue-collar White caucasian worker in the Western world.

          Both the Kagan cult & the Oligarchs look at rank-and-file blue-collar White caucasian human beings as completely expendable livestock.

          “Goyim”, as they call us.

          Mark my words, there’s gonna be a massive outpouring of support for Trump when he visits Detroit next week.

          And do not be surprised if the Council of the Sanhedrin orders up a serious BLM/Antifa riot to try to suppress the Trump idolatry.

          If the Council of the Sanhedrin votes to go “hot”, then things could get very very ugly in Detroit.

    • Many of our fine young men lack the ability to change a tire if they get a flat. That is our baseline of manufacturing readiness.

  46. When Churchill arrived in France to discuss next steps to arrest the German invasion, he asked General Gamelin for the reserves: “Où est la masse de manouvre?”

    Gamelin’s answer: “Aucune” (there aren’t any). The war was over a few weeks later.


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