Ukraine Budget Drama

Last week the House passed a stop-gap spending bill to keep the government running for another forty-five days as they haggle over a budget. As is always the case now, it was all insider baseball and pointless theater. The people on the stage doing “Shutdown Fever” seem to think there is an audience for this stuff, despite the fact the audience for this material is just the Washington media. The peanut gallery has been empty for so long they do not bother to open it anymore.

Aside from the usual finkery and shenanigans that come from these things, there was one thing that could prove to be interesting. Speaker of the House McCarthy agreed to drop Ukraine funding from the bill in order to get the votes to pass it. He promised the Democrats a separate bill, but his promises are even less reliable than some of the famously unreliable promises. The fact that the Democrats were willing to go along with it suggests they were not terribly upset by this finkery.

Despite what some back-benchers have to say, none of this has to do with the money being spent on the Ukraine project. Washington prints the money it spends, so no one in Washington worries about spending. It is not even clear that they care about the Ukraine project, but this is a good issue for them to show that McCarthy is nothing more than a gormless sock puppet for the people who really run Washington. McCarthy made sure to prove they were correct on that score.

The fact that the Democrats went along with this without too much of a fight and the White House has been moderate in tone is the curious thing. So far no one has bleated anything about Russian interference, which is has been the pattern for two years now whenever anyone questions the official Ukraine narrative. It could be that they know the fix is in so they can ignore this tempest in a teapot. Let the outer party have their poo-flinging contest, as long as the money keeps flowing.

It is also possible that the Evil Party knows the Stupid Party will come to their rescue as this Ukraine project slips into a debacle. If the Republicans are willing to take the lead on defunding this project, then they get the blame for what happens in 2024. Given the way things are going on the battlefields, it is reasonable to think that with or without Washington money, things could be very grim by next summer. Perhaps that is why the Democrats are letting the Republicans win this one.

The thing is though, the neocons never give up on a project, so it is hard to imagine them going along with this. Ukraine is not Iraq or Afghanistan. If the money runs out, the ultras will kill Zelensky and Ukraine collapses into civil war. The Russians then take control of the country and Ukraine ceases to exist. Ukraine has lost half of its population since independence and that will accelerate with a civil war. The result will be a lightly populated border state between Russia and the West.

This suggests that maybe there is some uncertainty in the White House about where to go next with the Ukraine project. Money is not the real issue. It is the dwindling supply of weapons and ammunition in the West. The Pentagon keeps warning about this issue, which no one seems to understand. It will take years to resupply the war machine with new weapons to replace those sent to Ukraine. The American military industrial base cannot keep pace with the demands of Ukraine.

If NATO cannot keep sending weapons to Ukraine, then what are the options to reduce the burn rate or stall the war until supplies can be replenished? That is where things get tricky as all of the options rely on the Russians going along with the scheme. If the plan is to slow the burn, it means the end of offensive operations by the Ukraine army, but the Russians will continue to pound them. If the plan is a cease fire, then it means getting the Russians to go along with it.

A third option, related to the first two, is the trial balloon let slip by the British Minister of Defense over the weekend. The idea is to put NATO forces into Western Ukraine as trainers and advisors. They would be housed on bases, which would be turned into supply depots and repair facilities. The belief is the Russians would not blow up these facilities due to the presence of NATO forces. NATO would have safe zones in Ukraine to build up supplies and train a new army.

Given that the Russians have blown up a number of command centers with Western advisors in them, this sounds nutty. On the other hand, those facilities did not have the NATO flag over them. They were Ukrainian military facilities disguised as things like hotels and business parks. In Syria, Washington has had a garrison there protecting the remains of ISIS from the Russians and Syrians. Perhaps Washington thinks the same thing will work in Ukraine.

Taken together, this latest bit of budget drama suggests that Washington is unsure where to go with the Ukraine project. This deal buys them a month or so to come up with a new plan. This coincides with the onset of the autumn rains which will force the Ukrainians back into their bunkers and trenches. That will also slow the burn rate of weapons and ammunition. The old narrative has finally collapsed, and they now need a new narrative or someone on whom to pin the blame.

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142 thoughts on “Ukraine Budget Drama

    • I wrote a comment about this that forum seems to have swallowed without explanation, but my point was that this is a very big deal.

      It was the Ukraine side deal that skewered McCarthy. The Zelensky curse remains undefeated. Support for this war is really starting to splinter Western governments apart.

    • If I’m reading things right, it took the newly appointed temporary House Speaker to order Pelosi to GTFO of the Speaker’s actual Congressional offices.

      Kevin couldn’t even force the geriatric previous occupant to vacate?

      What a miserable excuse of a man.

  1. Well, McCarthy is gone, and it’s the Ukraine money that sunk him. The Zelensky curse remains undefeated.

    I know a lot of people here are quite black-pilled about electoral politics and many in the comments carry on as if nothing makes any difference, but I don’t. I think this is highly, highly significant.

    If today was a referendum on the direction of the GAE, then the GAE just lost in a very big, dramatic way. A parliamentary procedure that hasn’t even been tried in over 100 years was just mobilized to unseat a reigning Speaker. This is an historic day and it’s worth taking the time to savor it.

  2. This whole thing was a genocide of the ukrainian people . full stop. planned , orchestrated and executed. I think the side benefeit of disableing th us military, so they don’t get any niger like ideas of evicting their international handlers . that’s not a mispelling, I mean the coup in that african country.

  3. This whole thing was a genocide of the ukrainian people . full stop. planned , orchestrated and executed. I think the side benefeit of disableing th us military, so they don’t get any niger like ideas of evicting their international handlers .

  4. “The Russians then take control of the country.”

    I doubt the Russians want it. It’s a basket case. The thing about military action is that you’ve got to be crystal clear about your objectives and stop when they’ve been realised. You’ve got to know what the endgame is. The Russians have largely achieved their objectives. I doubt anyone wants the rump state of Ukraine — maybe the Poles might like to slice off a succulent slice of western Ukraine — I don’t really know.

    In contrast to the Russians, the US neocons have been living in cloud-cuckoo land. Unrealisable, grandiose and vague hallucinations which cannot be realized in the world of today. You couldn’t hallucinate any worse if you ingested some magic mushrooms or ate some peyote cookies.

  5. i think it would be hilarious if one of the senators on the foreign relations committee asks Tony Blinken –

    is it true that your patrilineal great grandfather was born in Ukraine? (Blinken says yes)

    If he left on bad terms, is it fair to say you might have a conflict of interest?

    Would the media streisand effect it or would they try to ignore it?

    • Noticing anything relevant that paints the tribe in a bad or even just unhelpful light is antisemitism and antisemitism makes you hitler and hitler should be killed even as an adorable baby.

      They dont have or even need any argument more complicated than that. Having real power gives you certain leeway in talking nonsense. Consistency and logic are the tools of weaklings like us (for now).

  6. I wonder if Trudeau inviting the former SS officer into parliament for a standing ovation will be the turning point for the war.

    Public support for the war is now close to 0. Ukrainian flags have been taken off of people’s homes. The announcement of an extra 650 million to Ukraine was met with quiet groans.

    The whole war looks pretty stupid now. On top of that, our leaders are so imbecilic and despicable that a significant portion of society will simply go against whatever they are pushing.

    With Canada is taking in 400,000 Indians per quarter, and the USA taking in 1.5 million illegals per quarter, things like Ukraine really don’t matter that much anyways.

  7. The hated Russians are making the neocons and their think tanks look border line retarded. Neocons will throw as many lives or as much money as possible to prove they’re not wrong, so unfortunately this war will go on for a long time. Expect more terrorism against Russia to provoke a response or a large 9/11 type false flag.

    • ” a large 9/11 type false flag”

      I once thought this would happen but I’m not as certain now. There likely is a very justified fear by TPTB that an engineered false flag might set off a lot of real ones by people already on edge. That may give them too much credit but the secret police are not totally incompetent and likely have a feel for this. The false flag might be an inadvertent spark, in other words.

  8. The Philadelphia Inquirer ran a story a couple of days ago on the front page of the paper edition about an SS monument in a cemetery outside of Philadelphia in a place called Elkins Park. Philadelphia has a large Jewish community who are up in arms about it (it’s been there for decades). But the problem for them is that the local Ukrainian Catholic church is the group who paid for it and want it to be there. It makes me wonder if attention wasn’t called to this monument to erode Jewish support for Ukraine.

    Personally, I find it hilarious. I think they should move the monument to a plot next to the Holocaust museum in center city.

    • Personally, I think they need to celebrate diversity by building a mosque next to the holocaust museum. The amount of lulz that would result from all parties will be apocalyptic in scope. The memes are bound to be amazing too. Pepe the frog in a turban at Friday prayers level stuff.

  9. I’m taking bets. By New Year’s, anybody with an American accent gets three seconds headstart.

  10. The financial markets are blowing up at the moment. As I type this, DOW is down almost 440 points and the 10-year is nearly 4.8%. There is nothing on the horizon to reverse these trends, either.

    The collapse has started. It feels different this time.

    Concerning Ukraine, Medvedev made comments a few days ago which strongly suggested that Russia would begin targeting the Kiev regime itself and pushing for regime change, effectively ending Ukrainian statehood. All I can say to that is, it’s about fricking time and I’m flabbergasted that it took Moscow so long to come to this decision. The only way the Western aid will stop is if you destroy the recipient of that aid, otherwise they will poke the bear forever, if only for domestic reasons.

    I see defeat for Ukraine this winter, multiple dominos falling in Europe, a complete collapse of the government in the US followed by the reinstatement of Trump with massive popular support. After that comes the currency collapse and the prosecution of the swamp.

    • I’d say the markets are moving down in response to some hawkish observations about interest rates, given the exceptionally low unemployment numbers just released.

      • exceptionally low unemployment numbers just released

        I wonder how much credibility is left in that gas tank. I mean, did anyone see that and NOT think that the numbers were cooked and/or meaningless?

        • I wouldn’t discount the job opening numbers completely out of hand.

          Between retirements, deaths, the crap educational system, substance abuse, and pure laziness there is an enormous shortage of experienced, skilled workers at all levels in the US.

          The idiots in DC can talk tough all they want about reindustrializing for a two or three-front war, but the human capital just isn’t there.

    • It does feel different, but I draw a different conclusion: the financial implosion and to a lesser extent the Ukraine war debacle (by accident) are being engineered to implement a far more totalitarian regime. Here’s to hoping you are right, though!

    • For those of us with long economic and asset trading memories, this is a repeat of 2007.

      I talk to a lot of people and look at a lot of data and though usually people are somewhat fucked, it’s really hitting the fan atm. We’re in the middle of a banking crisis and normies (dissidents too for that matter) have no idea its happening or to what extent. They also understand none of the process causing it.

      Global trade, to the extent it came back after 2020, is getting monkey hammered. Businesses never recovered volume after 2019. Now even that volume is falling.

      It’s not different this time; nearly all people are just financially stupid.

      • People I trust claim it will be worse than 2007 because of the bond market crash. My guess is this is being engineered/manipulated to impose CBDC and other forms of totalitarianism.

        • Anyone who describes what’s going on using the term “bond crash” has no idea what they’re talking about. If you look at a LONGTERM chart, you’ll understand why.

          But yes, same situation as before but higher stakes. They covered up a lot of the incoming implosion in 2019 with the fake pandemic. So this is guaranteed to be a worse repeat of 2007. Same problem but much bigger.

          Unless they can pull out another rabbit from the hat. Covid was a good trick to hide a lot of it. My bet is war with China is the only thing that would do the trick this time to hide the economic devastation.

          Imagine what will happen if I’m right and global shipping lanes are shut down due to real global war.

          I’ve got my bets lined up to profit. Everyone else can get fucked. Let’s see how many of you accept the mark of the Beast after talking big about being the resistance to the system.

          • If your “bets lined up” to take profits are in the bond market, best of luck. And everyone already takes the Mark of the Beast. It just hasn’t been sufficiently devalued yet. Digital likely can achieve this.

            But, yeah, this is going to be long term, likely closer to ’29 than ’07.

          • You think they’re going to implement the Mark of the Beast and let people like you walk, because you were smart enough to get ahead of the curve?
            >hey leave this guy alone, he saw this coming

          • War obviously won’t help the economic situation with a hollowed-out industrial base, and I don’t think that’s what you’re saying. As for pure distraction, Ukraine says odds are it won’t work.

            I think the idea was to reset the global economy with a war, with capital flowing to China and re-establishing there— along the lines of how it worked with the US, except with the US being the used-up husk this time.

            Not working out that way, so time for contingency plans! Is Russia still looking for an independent Western Ukraine? The devastated and depopulated one? Well, ‘we’ need to rebuild the place!

    • 400 is .012054 of the opening of 33,318.84. Not exactly a flash-crash. If it crashes 10k points over a week or month, it’ll be time to worry. It’s all fake anyway. The DOW bottomed around 6k in 09. One would have to believe an incredible amount of growth to have gone up more than 5 fold in the last 14 years.

    • Reinstatement of Trump? What ?! The Pentagon, Langley, Foggy Bottom, and Fort Meade would have to be rubble before that happens.

    • “ the reinstatement of Trump with massive popular support.”

      Muh storm is coming.

      Is that what Q told you today?

    • “The collapse has started. It feels different this time.”

      Really? Because from over here it sure SOUNDS a lot like the last couple hundred times I was reliably informed the sky has fallen.

      Collapse of empires can take centuries and actually be so slow that individual people living through never even know it even happened. Not sure why everyone thinks the whole arc has to be wrapped up in time for the commercial break like it’s all a very special episode of Full House.

  11. Tars’ brilliant observation- that in America revolution means the Minutemen mythos, everywhere else revolution means communist killsquads- applies to Ukraine.

    Our neocons thought they could dress Azov SS units in tricorn hats and make it fly. Ukraine’s very own Great Patriotic War.

    Galician Banderistas have quite the hardon for Russians; after this squander, this betrayal, if we put flagged Americans there…

    I’m taking bets. Anybody with an American accent gets 3 seconds headstart.

  12. There are other factors at work here, Z.

    America is on the edge of a full blown financial crisis. Germany is already in deep recession, if not all out depression. Britain and Fwance are teetering. All are looking at another winter of no fuel.

    Our militaries are in in free fall. What kind of military can you send to the Ukraine? The real squaddies are boiling off at an incredible rate. No replacements for them are coming forward except the faggots, low IQ vibrants, and self proclaimed Power Girls. Who are they going to ‘advise’ when they get dumped into western Ukraine? I note with wry amusement that General Milley has wisely chosen to retire.

    A year ago Douglas MacGregor said aptly “this debacle will end with a bunch of idiots in Washington losing everything, and staring stupidly at each other and wondering how it happened”. The Ukes on the battlefield now are deserting and surrendering en masse. Any day now, Zelensky and his cohorts are entirely likely to disappear in the middle of the night with their stolen millions and billions.

    Trump is having a field day, saying that he could end the nonsense in 24 hours. He is not the only one. I think someone or something is going to give. All the current Globohomo world leaders are in huge trouble with their own electorates. I laugh like a loon thinking of Canada’s Justin Turdo, hiding from his duties in the house of commons where he faces nothing but ridicule and derision from his countrymen. Macron is in the same boat. They will begin to topple in the next election cycle.

    I will not be surprised if this thing ends (badly) by midwinter – and that’s assuming the Russians don’t end it sooner.

  13. Grandma said you can’t eat money. I guess you can’t kill the enemy with it either. It’s great stuff, but it has its limitations. Like how you can’t make the feral children smarter by throwing more of it at the schools, but I digress.

    As I’ve been saying all along, in Ukraine the GAE finally picked a fight it couldn’t walk away from. If it can’t walk away, then there’s only one direction things can go. The big question left to be answered, whether or not that includes canned sunshine.

    That’s not necessarily a looming, next week question. Russia has its own problems, as shown by the relative stalemate on the ground. If they were in a position to swiftly crush all opposition then that probably would have already happened.

    • Ukraine is running out of warm bodies to throw into the meat grinder, though, which makes a prolonged conflict unlikely without direct Western intervention. This can drag on only if NATO deploys soldiers after the Ukrainian troops are depleted, so the “canned sunshine” aspect looms large because the populations of the alliance are not going along with the drafts required for sufficient troops to intervene. Walking away most likely will take place in some disguised form such as a Ukrainian civil war, which someone mentioned below, unless the canned sunshine option truly is on the table. I don’t discount that at all and in fact think it is a grave danger.

      Something seems to have gone horribly awry with the calculations the GAE made about China playing ball. Shocker.

      • Given the track record of the crazies to date, I think the canned sunshine option is most definitely on the table in DC and Brussels.

        • Gen. Milly went over the head of his commander in chief–Trump, to assure Nancy Pelosi that nukes are secured. So , the point has been made– the chairman of the join chiefs of staff can make his own decision. Some smaller generals were interviewed by press and talked about legal and illegal orders. So, stock up on iodine tablets. We might need it. Especially if some rear admiral decides that HE is not gonna loose the war.

          • I’m more worried about the civilian leadership crazies than the PBF option (precious bodily fluids) from some Gen. Ripper type. I also think that the Biden puppet attempting to push the big Red Button could be the way the US finally gets rid of its clearly undemocratic “our democracy”. Some of us have hoped for a Pinochet to come along of course. I don’t think the current military has many men like that but at this point I’m probably not going to shed any tears as Our Democracy style anarcho-tyranny is replaced by something with more tyranny and less anarchy.

            This may also be the only way the border *can* actually be closed at this point. I don’t just mean that the civilian government can’t do it politically either. I mean that it might well take a partial military mobilization just to do it physically as well as round up and remove all the Visa abusers pretending to be “tech workers” or “nannies”.

          • Lose the war, not “loose”. Sorry to be spelling police but that particular error, usually amidst otherwise fine grammar and spelling, is so damn common. It is puzzling and makes my brain hurt for a second when I see it.

      • I’m now wondering if that’s part of the move that Z cited: that NATO will take over part of the back-end logistics so those Uke soldiers doing those duties can go to the front, with the hope (not much of one) that the Russians won’t attack clearly “badged” NATO installations in western Ukraine. What would that buy them though? A month or two maybe?

        • It won’t even buy them that. The first group going in will be hit within a day or two. There’s no downside for the Russians. NATO can’t really invoke Article V and sure don’t want to do it.

      • Only way to stop Ukraine losing may well be to send tens of thousands of NATO (i.e. American) troops. Playing with fire! But I’ve never seen an administration as stupid, arrogant and unaccountable as Biden’s.

    • Russia has stated openly and repeatedly that the point of this war is to destroy the military capacity of Ukraine to fight a war, not to win territory. Russia spans eleven time zones, and they suffer from a declining population, which translates into relatively few military-eligible men. They have plenty of territory; they don’t need more. From the Russian perspective, their soldiers are far more valuable than turf. This is hard for Americans to grasp, because our government hates us and wants us dead.

      I would not characterize the situation on the ground as a stalemate. Rather, Russia has chosen deliberately to fight a defensive war of attrition along heavily fortified lines. This has forced the Ukrainians to try to assault the Russian lines, essentially throwing their soldiers into kill boxes to be slaughtered.

      Russia has also stated openly and repeatedly that they are prepared for this conflict to last for a decade, and I suspect it will. The sanctions against Russia have been an abysmal failure–Russian GDP is rising while Germany’s is collapsing. The EU and NATO are both likely to fail under the stress imposed by the war. From a geopolitical perspective, this war is the wedge that is splitting the world away from the unipolar world of the American Empire. This war has been a win-win-win for Russia. It will go down in history as the greatest blunder ever committed by America.

      • This is a good and correct post.

        We don’t think about the prosecution of war the same way others do.

      • My assessment of “stalemate” is not about lines on a map. Given her druthers, Russia doesn’t want a 10 year war of attrition any more than anyone else does. She is in this position because she has no better choice. Things may be slowly grinding in her favor, but that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have problems of her own, as I said. I didn’t say she was losing.

        • >> Given her druthers, Russia doesn’t want a 10 year war of attrition any more than anyone else does.

          With respect, why do you believe this? One of the points of my comment was that it is in Russia’s interests to fight a long-term, limited, defensive war of attrition. Russia is suffering minimal losses on the battlefield, and many of the losses are from conscripted convicts and troops from the ‘stans. The financial costs of the war are manageable. The sanctions have failed. And long-term, this war is breaking down the unipolar world dominated by America into a multipolar world, which will be very good for Russia.

          Not trying to be a jerk. I’m genuinely interested in your viewpoint.

          • I hold it as a truism that no sane entity chooses a long war except as the best of a set of bad choices. Seems as true here as ever. And a long war of attrition is basically a stalemate for practical purposes in the here and now. Whatever advantage the “winning” side has isn’t enough to be decisive in the near term. Of course, all wars are wars of attrition, some just take longer than others.

            We know how it looks today from our perspective, and can thusly predict a winner on this basis, but the extended duration introduces uncertainty, and the prospect of unforeseen events altering the course of the war. For Russia as well as for the GAE. “Even in a contest between man and steer the issue is not certain.”

          • Are you suggesting that Russia sought out – as actual policy – a ten-year war of attrition? It’s one thing to argue the (potential) advantages to Russia of such a scenario, but quite another to imagine that from Russia’s POV “it is all going according to plan!” War never goes according to plan, and long-term wars have a disturbing habit of toppling governments that seem invulnerable. Russians, of all people, know this: non FNG version in 1917; FNG version just after the 1989 pullout from Afghanistan. Putin knows it too.

            As Mr Zoar said, Russia has problems – deep, systemic problems – thus, as a normal country it is better off at peace than at war.

            Sadly Russia finds itself up against the fanatical GAE and its decaying NATO minions, all impervious to old-fashioned diplomacy. So, I hope you are right, and that Russia is prepared to go on with this ridiculous debacle as long as it takes, with low casualties and costs.

      • Greatest foreign policy blunder, perhaps. Failure to repatriate the negroes after the Civil War was the greatest domestic gaffe. The latter led to the death of America; the former may polish off the GAE.

    • It’s important to remember territorial acquisition is not the objective of Russia. She has often stated her aims. Demilitarization, denazification, and Ukrainian neutrality with respect to NATO. Russia has been succeeding with demilitarization by decimating Ukrainian troops and materiel. Ukraine may have lost 150,000 men or more while Russia has lost perhaps one fifth of that. As noted elsewhere here, the median age on the Ukrainian front line is 40. Ukraine has run out of younger cannon fodder. The front line looks static but that is not the real story. Pushing the front lines westward is not the aim most of the West believes it is.

      • I should add this:
        It transpires that the lack of younger men on the battlefield may be due more to an even worse omen for Ukraine. Demographic decline and depopulation. She produced very few children in the early 2000s, and now her population has lost a normal distribution. Furthermore she now has one of the worst TFR rates. The West has managed to not only murder lots of Ukrainian men and force women to flee the country, now it looks like DC will be fighting over an increasingly empty steppe.

        • As it happens, I just read that article to which you linked. Bernhard does his homework, and the argument he advanced is compelling.

          The worry is what and who might fill this empty space. Already the signs are ominous with forces such Blackrock, Monsanto, Cargill and the like practicing the disaster capitalism that I feel was baked into the cake from the get go. Also, there is much chat about Israhell v.2 trying to stage a comeback of Khazaria, the Pale of Settlement all over again, stealing the richest farmland of Europe for their ends. Just as, if not more nefarious than Ukraine’s entry into NATO and the EU in my estimation, and thereby a very destabilizing outcome.

          But the situation is fluid, and the forces and counterforces are scarcely clear to us observers.

  14. The Dem party lines from here are obvious:
    Ukraine loses: “See, we have to double defense spending to avoid another debacle, fortify NATO and to preserve Our Democracy”.
    Ukraine wins: ” See, tyrants can be deterred. We request $20 bazillion dollars for upgraded NATO defenses, admitting Georgia, Armenia, Palookistan and Kreplachistan into NATO and for a shield around Taiwan”.

    I really don’t think they give a rat’s rear what happens. The media will go along with whatever spin they choose to apply to this tragedy.

    • The Democratic Party is the money laundering and child molestation wing of a military junta. If for whatever reason it confesses a loss, agents of Russian disinformation (the remnant population of statistically average Americans) will be blamed, and the military will begin openly operating as the domestic-enemy mass slaughter force it already considers itself to be.

      Remember the 2020 TikTok trend of female officers from every branch filming themselves nearly masturbating at the thought of marching on the suburbs and mowing down whole multi-generation families of MAGA chuds? Where’d it go?

      • Problem is many of us have already been around a bit.
        There is a machine shop in every other garage,& lots of people know what ,how. Where & when.
        Why is all that’s missing.

    • Actually, the media will work hand-in-glove with FedGov to craft the spin. Remember, the (regime) media is nothing less than the propaganda wing of the Power Structure.

    • When I read (rarely) a pro Ukraine article about its successes, they tend to interview a commander (of whatever rank) that led a successful storming of an abandoned village. One of the grimly comical details is the article always notes that the commander was leading troops who had never been in battle, but they showed the Russians what the Uke is made of. My immediate thought: Well, where are the experienced troops?
      The obliteration of men is real. My wife has three male relatives in Ukraine. Two are dead; one is deployed and will probably be dead in the near future.

      • The videos I get a kick out of purport to show the “success” of the counter offensive by depicting Uke’s taking back a “strategic” town/village from the Russkies. The Uke’s stand before buildings—not one of which is not a burned out shell—and the map displayed show a smallish dot surrounded by miles of rectangular farm fields. In short, the Uke’s took back control of the ashes (if they took anything) and the map projected still shows, more or less, little meaningful movement of the battle field lines.

        However, as I’ve repeatedly stated, the clock is ticking. A stalemate is perhaps little better than a defeat for the Russians.

        • They know that, therefore there will be no “stalemate” or “frozen conflict”. Not hardly.

  15. “The result will be a lightly populated border state between Russia and the West.”

    “Money is not the real issue.”

    “If the Republicans are willing to take the lead on defunding this project, then they get the blame for what happens in 2024.”

    Just so! And on the last quote, blame for advancing the ball, as is usually the case.

  16. “The belief is the Russians would not blow up these facilities due to the presence of NATO forces.”

    That is most likely their belief. Would anyone here take that bet? If Putin allowed that then he would, destabilize his support.

    • Medvedev, Putin’s attack dog on such matters, has pointed out that if Germany sends longer range missiles to the Ukraine to strike Russia, Russia is perfectly entitled to take out the German factories making such missiles…If NATO soldiers formally enter this melee, they will be specifically targeted in the same way that the dread Leopard tanks were targeted…

      • The Russians just dropped an Iskander missile on a hotel in the Kherson area. The Ukrainians said only civilians were killed but apparently a lot of U.S. passports were seen in the rubble.

        I don’t think the Russians will think twice about killing NATO people in Ukraine.

        • US and NATO casualties are likely a lot higher than we think is possible. At some point there are going to be a lot of training accidents and plane crashes happening to the various militaries involved. Either that are they’ll be counted as KIA when the real war starts.

        • For all practical purposes NATO is already involved. At this point, NATO’s “threat” of joining in is a weak bluff. Should it put “advisors” on Uke soil, no doubt Russians could hit them with impunity. Aside from maybe Poland, I see no other NATO country with popular support for getting involved.

  17. Well, a civil war in Ukraine would allow them to cut and run — even blaming the Ukrainians as they did so.

    Trouble with that scenario is that everyone knows Russia won. Not that Russia would be thrilled with a civil war on its border.

    That might be what the usual suspects attempt to pass off as victory. It’s not as if they have a shred of integrity. They also — all pretense to the contrary — hate Slavs, so for them it’s a win of sorts. Ghastly scum.

    • That is a possibility on the table. It avoids the scene where Zelensky signs a peace deal with Russia that takes Ukraine off the board for good. The trouble with the civil war idea is it will spill into the Balkans and maybe all of Europe. Imagine weapons flowing from pissed of Ukrainian partisans into the hands of pissed of groups in Poland, Romania, Serbia and maybe even Germany or Sweden. Would the ultras sell Swedish Muslim anti-tank weapons if the Swedes stop backing Ukraine?

      It is a good reminder that things can always get worse.

  18. This the problem with history beginning anew each dawn for the Permanent Revolutionaries in the Imperial Capital: They’ve forgotten about the “Whoopsie!” precedent they themselves set in Bosnia. Does anyone else remember the time Bill Clinton accidentally-on-purpose blew up the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade? The Chinese sure do. Which means the Russians do, too. Whoops! Sorry about that. We thought it was an aspirin factory, we swear. Those are legitimate military targets, aren’t they, Bill?

    Here’s hoping, anyway. The fools in the Imperial Capital really do want to have some dead “Americans” to parade around, to whip up war fever. I’m sure Toby Keith is game — he hasn’t made the charts for a while — but I don’t think any but the dumbest Grillers are still on board. As the groovy fossils somehow still infesting Washington once asked, “What if they held a war and nobody showed up?” I’ve got my fingers crossed that they finally get to find out.

    • What’s my mantra?
      Vladimir Putin and the Russians are not desecrating the graves of our ancestors and sexually mutilating our children.

      • “Vladimir Putin never called me a far right wing White Supremacist” – Muhammad Ali (paraphrased)

    • “I’m sure Toby Keith is game — he hasn’t made the charts for a while”

      Too late. Humongous current country star Brad Paisley already made a terrible song with Zelensky talking in the chorus. Turns out them Ukes aint no different from you and I, they love grilling and football just as much. Theyre basically just like you good old southern white christian boy and you should definitely listen to Brad Paisely and go enlist.

  19. I’d add two other factors to Z-man’s excellent analysis. The first is that, even if the munitions and weapons could be magically produced in the U.S., they’d need to be transported to Ukraine and there’s no assurance that the Russians would simply let those ships sail and those planes fly unimpeded. Hitting logistics centers such as maritime ports and airports would be no problem at all for the Russian military. The second issue is one of manpower. Ukrainian troop losses have been more catastrophic than equipment losses. The U.S. military, with the possible exception of the Marines, is presently failing to meet its recruitment goals France is considering giving up building a second aircraft carrier because it suspects it couldn’t recruit enough personnel to put a full crew aboard. Now imagine trying to recruit in a shooting war with killed-in-action reaching hundreds each day. And reintroducing conscription would probably meet with massive active and passive resistance. The Global American Empire and its European puppets are rapidly running out or options in Ukraine.

    • > The U.S. military, with the possible exception of the Marines, is presently failing to meet its recruitment goals France is considering giving up building a second aircraft carrier because it suspects it couldn’t recruit enough personnel to put a full crew aboard.

      One of the primary ways to tell if a country is worthy of existence is the ability to find people who are willing to die on its behalf. Once the country is separated from the nation of people it is supposed to serve, this happens.

      • I was a proud volunteer into the Vietnam War. I had 79 confirmed kills and enjoyed every one of them. I’m always up for killing a commie.
        There is no way I would volunteer today for the military nor would I allow any of my children to do so. I will not die to protect the same communist philosophy I fought against.

        • The thing I most notice wrt Vietnam debacle as a witness/participant is to what effect we went in to save “democracy” and fight “communism” on their behalf?

          Today, Vietnam is a developing—and yes, capitalistic, society open to doing business and advertising themselves as an attractive alternative to China. Hell, I’m seeing more and more goods, like the recent shirts I bought, labeled made in Vietnam.

          So the question is, would Vietnam have been any worse had we never stepped foot on their shores? I know we’d have been better judging from the blood and treasure spent there.

          • The attraction of Communism for the national liberation movements over the world was that it offered anti-colonialism. I think most of these revolutionairies would have rather had the US as a sponsor but we aligned with the colonizers. There were the true believers who were more Communist than the USSR ever hoped to be but most were kind of relaxed about it.

          • @Mike

            This x 10,0000. If ones takes a clinical look at the history, there is not a single country that got an infestation of communism that was not preceded by a oligarchic ruling class (imperial or domestic) behaving very badly. People only turn to international communism when they need national liberation. Then, often (China and Vietnam) they get rid of the internationalist part and turn into nationalist communists.

        • I don’t pretend to understand all this Ukraine stuff, you all are much more knowledgeable than I. I simply hate to see Our People killing each other for a ginned up war for the usual suspects.

          I do know I agree with Hoagie. No more military service to this “nation” or its governing cabal. My family’s documented service spans from the Revolution to myself. God willing it ends with me.

          I’ve managed to keep all of my children well away from their military. In addition to mine own kids, I’ve helped guide a half dozen other kids in my orbit to productive alternatives to serving in this degenerate military.

          I went to war when a local Marine recruiter reached out for my youngest boy. This recruiter had been provided with his name by the high school despite my signing a no contact list. Some secretary or coach operating under some mutated sort of patriotism slipped the recruiter info… but as none of my kids received a phone until they were in their late teens… the recruiter had to reach out to me. He was made aware he was unwelcome and if I found him sniffing around my property or 17 y.o. son he would be dealt with.

          The school buttoned up like a clam when I marched in and laid it out and the recruiter was put on notice. Maybe this action will prevent the “do not contact” families from having their wishes violated in the future. Hope so.

          Either way, I believe it is our moral duty to keep Our children out of their military. If you are facing this I suggest you approach the kids with alternatives. Despite my rage I softstep my approaches. For those kids that just want to be productive like my boys, I push the trades. For those that want to fill the need for service I suggest EMT, Firefighting and nursing. For those wanting adventures I suggest pursuing an extreme activity or sport on their downtime.

          Hope this helps if any of you are facing beloved children contemplating the military.

      • “Get your ass shot off for the Ukraine and Israel you racist scum!” is a surprisingly ineffective recruiting slogan.

        • One problem for “us” (wiser and older folk) and of benefit to “them” (recruiters and such) is the banality of a modern lifestyle for an up and coming young man these days. I saw that in my son as well. He and a few close friend were always doing silly and dangerous crap when on their own in the woods and fields. Indeed, son looks like a combat vet with the (self inflicted) scar to prove it. Of course, he was not so bothered by being raised by a single mother.

          Young growing men—real men—seek challenges and status among themselves as they grow into manhood. The military knows this and seeks them out with the ultimate challenge, combat! It’s as old as civilization.

          • A fallback suggestion for those boys that are dead set on military is to opt for the Guard of your state. I know that the Federals can steal a National Guard unit because of the abdominal changes instituted during the early years of the 20th Century.. but it is at least one more layer between them and the GAE.

            It’ll give them a taste of the military and they are less likely to be sucked up into the neocon’s gaping war maw.

          • Penitent Man,

            Going by how many Guard units were swept into Afghanistan, and the dire numbers for recruitment into the military, being that ready to hand for a tap on the shoulder should things get spicy, that’s not much shelter.

          • JJ, true. It has been standard military doctrine to plan on local National Guard units in (Federal) military planning for some time now. There is a clear division of labor in the last few generations among the units. We often hear about National Guard construction units being called up in invasions and such. You might not be the tip of the spear, it you are part of the shaft supporting the tip.

        • “‘Get your ass shot off for the Ukraine and Israel you racist scum!’ is a surprisingly ineffective recruiting slogan.”

          Come now that’s totally absurd and no one in this man’s army would talk in such a ridiculous way.

          It would obviously be “You racist CIS scum”

    • Absolutely, as Medvedev’s threats against Germany foreshadow…If DC lets this mess escalate, it’s Katy bar the door…This fight is existential for the Russians, and likely the Chinese..They are not going to lose, whatever it takes…

    • Almost like purposefully leeching every drop of testosterone out of your young males and turning them into sissies could have some ‘unforeseen’ downstream effects! These kids are as soft as a pillow today. There are a few outliers, but they are far far rarer then in prior generations.

      Likewise, telling people your country is an awful racist evil place 24x7x365 seems to get people not to want to fight & die for it. Odd that… clearly the genius IQs pushing revisionist history, hate Whitey messaging, and faggotry / trannyism could never have foreseen these events! It is a great mystery why the “tip of spear” has been so heavily blunted.

  20. My guess is several factions have turned against the neocons due to economic and political concerns (no matter how sham, there is an election next year, after all). Take note of stories popping up that claim the Biden Administration is concerned with corruption. Yeah, the irony is deep enough to drown a whale, but we are being told around the edges that “Biden” is worried about Ukrainian theft of aid money. For example: If you venture onto the sewer formerly known as Twitter, some senators–several who trace their roots to the Bronze Age Death Cult–and their Bill Kristolite brothers are screeching about the need to continue support.

    I have no clue where this will go. The problem is neither do TPTB, it seems. Let’s hope the saner factions prevail because the ever-present danger of nuclear war only will grow worse if those who see this madness as more than mere grift get the upper hand. The best case scenario is the WEF puppet masters turn on the neocons, I think, but that is unlikely.

    • I’d suspect that the political wing of the Biden administration – Sullivan and Blinken – are breaking from the hardcore neocon wing – Nuland. The Kagan Cult wants this war to go on forever, but the political wing realizes that it could be trouble for the election.

      The problem for the political wing is that Russia won’t play ball. Russia has zero trust in the Americans, so I’m not sure that we could offer them anything other than the Donbas, the rest of eastern Ukraine as a demilitarized zone, no NATO for remaining Ukraine and no military aid to the new Ukraine. Even then, I’m not sure if the Russians would trust them enough to accept.

      No, the Biden administration has no choice but to ride this out and hope nothing blows up before the election.

      • Literally no one let alone the Russians at this point trusts D.C. Assuming this doesn’t end in absolute catastrophe, the long-term consequence will be permanent distrust of the GAE the rest of its run.

        If the faction or factions wanting to bring this shitshow to a close are to prevail, they have a very narrow window indeed with both the economy about to crater and the election about to get serious. We are about to live through maybe the most momentous year in modern history, and I suspect provoking and prolonging this war may have actual consequences for those responsible.

      • Russia also has to have Odessa and complete control of the Black Sea…And I doubt that the Russian public would settle for that, after all this bloodshed…

        • Agree. I doubt Russia wants to deal with western Ukraine, so there best hope there is to install a pro-Russian govt. But who’s to say if that would last.

          But taking all of eastern Ukraine with the Dnieper River as a natural barrier to NATO seems like an obvious move. Then take Odessa, making the remaining Ukraine a landlocked rump state.

          The remaining Ukraine would be a disaster. Let the West deal with it. (Btw, the neocons and their Wall Street buddies would be happy to “rebuild” such a state so maybe the neocons would go along with this plan.)

        • Russia needs to cut off the Ukraine from the Black Sea and get Odessa because it is a Russian city. They also need a land bridge to Transnistria to secure that territory from Moldova and NATO.

    • If I am not mistaken, today is the day slated for a full-blown national alert across Russia, the kind issued prior to an actual nuclear war. They have been very busy for years now getting very serious about preparing for just such an event.

      Also, expect your devices tomorrow in the afternoon to blast out a nationwide alert across AINO. Weak tea pissing contest with nothing to back it up, as any serious civil defense here has rotted almost totally away.

      • Viewing the total lack of coordination of information/action between local governmental agencies when faced with 2 minor issues, (ie Lahaina et al) I continue to ignore any edicts, they may issue fatwas all they please, but without anything to enforce or back them up, it’s just dogs barking as the caravan passes by…

        ps-Yoders delicious canned bacon with 12 year shelf life is now $40/can.

  21. The Biden administration is in a bind. I think that they thought that they could quietly string along the whole Ukraine affair until after the election, but, now, they’re not sure if it might not break apart before then.

    That’s why they’ve been floating the ceasefire option, but the Russians are having none of it. The neocons aren’t too thrilled either; as long as Russians and Ukrainians are dying, they’re happy.

    Tough situation for the more political side of the Biden administration. Two options:

    1. Continue to pour money into Ukraine, hoping they don’t break before November 2024.

    2. Back down completely. Give the Russian the Donbass, a demilitarized eastern Ukraine, assurances that Ukraine won’t join NATO and either extremely limited or even no military aid to what remains of Ukraine. (And I’m not even sure the Russians would trust that.)

    Option 1 is dangerous. It’s entirely possible that the Ukrainians collapse after a Russian summer offensive, just in time for the election. Option 2 would be a very bad look and invites the ire of the tribe.

    I’d guess that they’ll go with Option 1 and hope for the best.

    • At least in the “before times” the administration would be in a bind. The cabal is no longer concerned with national elections as they have those under control.

      It also has to be remembered that half of the population of the country is functionally marxist if not full on Stalinist.

      • Just so. Name any debacle since Obamacare promises were revealed to be lie and a scam, or since it was exposed the IRS were slow-walking Tea Party paperwork. At no point has the Democrat Party or its stooges in the Deep State suffered electoral or judicial consequences. Elections? It is to laugh!

  22. Good analysis Z. However, as I was reading your analysis I thought it sounded familiar. Suddenly it hit me. This sounded like an analysis of an upcoming sitcom (Friends, e.g.) episode/plot.
    I wonder if the DC Ukraine Russia Russia Russia situation is really any different than a TV sitcom.
    Circus. Clown World. Jersey Shore is more real than any of this stuff.
    It is great entertainment though.
    I do love your analysis of things. It’s just the subject matter has become so ridiculous that its no longer relevant to my life beyond entertainment.

  23. i recall some russian general saying ukrainian army will start to collapse spring next year, maybe he was wrong and it will take longer than that, maybe it will happen in the autumn or winter of next year.

    The idea is ukrainian army is barely hanging on at this point, which means whatever khazarians kagans decide in the US won’t matter anymore.

    conflict will continue with poland, baltic states and finland though.

    Sweden army can’t help though, they’re busy figthing off middle eastern drug gangs from completely overtaking cities.

    • Someone (Russians) have to push in order for Ukraine to collapse. Where’s the push? So far the Uke’s have co-operated by coming to the Russkies, but what happens if they simply stop? Is there any more territory the Russians care about?

      • from my understanding, ukraine’s overall population keeps shrinking, russia’s isn’t.

        if ZOG enrolls 1-2 million more ukrainians in the army, country stops functioning cause there will be no one to work fields and keep the lights on, if they don’t then russian army overhwelms them, I assume that’s russian’s army reasoning.

        ZOG Ukraine will force a few more low-morale hundreds of citizens in the army(in the near future), but they’ll die easily, same as previous iterations of ukrainian army. All they’ll do is prolong the war for another 6-12 months period, depends on how they’re being utilized(most likely it’ll be poorly).

  24. In the lead up to the major wars of the 20th Century military planners produced brilliant plans to overthrow their opponents. Some, like the invasion of France in 1940, actually worked. However, once the wars became long term affairs, the primacy of logistics took hold.

    America, and its allies, lacks the ability to produce the stupendous quantities of munitions required for modern peer to peer conflicts because it no longer has the industrial capacity to do so. Having outsourced it manufacturing industries to East Asia, and other places, the USA can no longer convert consumer manufacturing to weapons production like it did in 1942. The result is that America only has the capacity to engage in short term conflicts with minor powers. Peer to peer conflicts, like the one proposed by Satan’s spawn, the neo-cons, is not feasible.

    Think about that when you hear someone preaching the virtues of globalization

    • There wasn’t ever supposed to be another major war. The West was supposed to spread their color revolutions until the differences in nations was simply a spot on a piece of paper as liberal democracy took hold everywhere, slowly eating through old traditions and customs until everyone was undifferentiated human matter, lockstep in thought in a way the old communists could only dream of.

      This could still be the final state of humanity, but they definitely jumped the gun in the execution of their fantasy.

      • I think this is close to right, and the concept is so fantastical it takes your breath away. Offshoring industry would not matter if there never again would be a need to manufacture munitions at scale. Surely the Middle Eastern reaction to Our Democracy should have offered a clue as to how delusional this line of thought was, but, no. This also shows a lack of awareness to the domestic opposition to so much of Our Democracy and a reason for the obliviousness. The chickens are coming home to roost.

  25. Senator Lindsey Graham pushing the line that “border security funding will be linked to increased aid to Ukraine” is a bit of odious rumpswabbery that took my breath away.

    You think you hate Republicans enough, but you really can’t.

    • Graham gets routinely booed and shouted down now in South Carolina. Perhaps vote stupidity has limits, assuming his election would not be fortified? Graham probably plans to cash out before he stands again for re-election and take the slings and arrows in exchange for compensation.

      But, yeah, telling citizens they will be protected only if they pay the MIC Danegeld is not a healthy development.

    • In my final years as a conservative who believed that people can affect change through political engagement, illegal immigration and border security were my big issues.

      I’ve been duped by Republicans on these issues too many times to count, which is one reason that I now want to burn the whole thing down.

      When Graham says, “improved border security,” conservatives imgaine a wall or armed patrols. If Graham were to deliver, which is unlikely, conservatives would find that Graham meant more bureaucrats for more efficient processing of the illegals.

      • Border “security” calls are a farce and anyone who is sentient knows this. The border open or “closed” means nothing. Place the whole damn army shoulder to shoulder on the border. When captured—if we can call it that—the IA simply states to the BP agent that he seeks “asylum”. Biden policy is to admit any and all who claim this. Trump’s policy was to remain in the first “safe” country you reached and apply for asylum from there. Of course, the de facto situation was that no one could ask for asylum coming through MX.

        The best more BP agents can do with this policy is to “process” such folk even faster! Here is my burg, bus loads a day poor in curtesy of this policy. The only folk who are rejected and immediately deported (whatever than means) are those identified as criminals, usually by their US records.

        The “official figure for last year is 3M asylum seekers admitted and transported to wherever they want in the USA pending their court hearing on asylum. Those numbers having been reduced now by 500-700k by Biden’s blanket amnesty of Venezuelans—who are definitely economic refugees—not political persecution victims.

        If we add in the suspected “got always”, it is not a stretch to imagine the US population growing by 1% each year due just to IA’s! We don’t need a study to believe—as Trump stated—that these folk are not their country’s “best and brightest”, but rather our future underclass and welfare recipients.

        If anyone is really serious about IA’s then the call should be for increasing—at the border—Federal immigration judges to immediately hear the cases of asylum pleas. We don’t need 6000 more BP agents, we need 6000 pro tem judges holding court daily. This would serve to meet our international obligations as well as rid us of this pestilence.

  26. > The Pentagon keeps warning about this issue, which no one seems to understand. It will take years to resupply the war machine with new weapons to replace those sent to Ukraine. The American military industrial base cannot keep pace with the demands of Ukraine.

    There was a meme showing a massive dog with the caption “NATO’s 48 Trillion dollar combined GDP”, and a little yip dog with the caption “Russia’s 1.3 Trillion economy”.

    This war has shown how fake GDP truly is, and how difficult it will be for Western countries to pivot to any sort of industrial production. It’s not because the skill is not there, but because the economy is so saturated with hucksters who know how to bleed as much money as they can for their own pet projects that its just a massive pillaging operation now.

    The scary part is there are the skills now, but in twenty years those old crusty guys with tribal knowledge will all be dead, and no amount of books will replace had-won experience that wasn’t transferred to the next generation.

    • Chet-

      That’s why you have companies like Raytheon frantically trying to lure retirees back to work, even if it’s just to train newbies how to make the long-obsolete Stinger missile.

      • It’s not just a matter of personnel. The president of Raytheon stated publicly last year that the production lines, long since unused, would take as long as a couple of years to restart/reassemble. We are talking here about not just assembly and personnel here at Raytheon, but of their suppliers across America getting ramped up to supply critical components to Raytheon. That’s the problem with high tech weaponry.

    • When you look into this issue, it is quite stunning. Currently, Russia has greater military industrial capacity than Europe and America combined. Current plans in Washington are to increase things like shell production, but their aggressive timetable says they reach Russian levels in five years. That means it will never happen.

      The reason for this is the West deliberately de-industrialized starting in the 1970’s. You cannot quickly transform a toaster factory into a shell factory if the toasters are being made in Vietnam. You cannot convert a car parts plant into making new HIMARS missiles if the plant is does not exist and the original people and production lines was liquidated to save money years ago.

      It turns out that Buchanan was right forty years ago when he said that de-industrializing America would cripple us militarily.

        • When Buchanan was warning of free trade and de-industrialization, the Neocons were united in opposing him. The same Neocons who always want war. It seems they haven’t quite thought this through and another reason they are the Stupid Party.

          • They thought it through. I believe if one follows the money, one will find all sorts of decisions made which personally profited those in power and influence at the expense of the public good.

            As Z-man has noted, they found a way to monetize social capital and sell it for personal profit.

      • It’s truly amazing. The US military budget is 10X Russia. I know that Europe’s military budget is small but it’s at least 3X Russia’s. So, NATO has a military budget of at least 13X Russia and our military industrial capacity is not even half of Russia.

        I love how everyone says Russia’s military (and society in general) is so corrupt and inefficient but then never explains how this is possible.

        The US military will push to bring back that industrial capacity, but businesses will want long-term contracts to invest what they need. Will the military give it to them? If so, what do they cut from the budget elsewhere?

        I’d suspect that they won’t cut anything and just demand more money. But guess what, after 40 years, we seem to be reaching the end of free money in DC. With debt to GDP at 120% and likely set to rise with entitlement, DC will find it harder to just throw money at the military, though I suspect that they will.

        If DC refuses to deal with entitlements and defense, we really could run into problems. To my surprise, the day of fiscal reckoning might only be a few years away. I figured that it would take a decade or so, but things seemed to have accelerated. We’ll see.

        • I pointed out a few weeks back that NATO pays five grand for shells that cost Russia five hundred. That is for something as simple as an artillery shell. Imagine the skim for tanks and missiles.

          • Yeah, the skim must be incredible. Indeed, the entire military racket is mind-boggling.

            We openly spend 3% of GDP on the military. I’m sure that we have another 1% or 2% that’s basically military but doesn’t fall under the defense budget. We’re talking a trillion and change for a country that is surrounded by two oceans and neighbors who will never – I repeat, never – be a threat.

            We could get away with a $50 billion military with ease. A good sub fleet, missiles, long-range stealth bombers and a 100,000-man army, mostly reserves.

            Imagine if we used that wasted trillion dollars on cutting taxes, infrastructure and basic R&D.

            What a ridiculous country we are.

          • Not sure of a $50B military budget. I believe their pension and salary obligations are already that.

        • CoTS-

          That was the usual suspects’ typical projection.

          In reality, it is the GAE MIC that is totally corrupt and inefficient at every level.

      • The Dems missed a great opportunity to let the GOP sink Ukraine aid. The upcoming debacle could have been blamed on the GOP’s lack of funding. Now the Dems are strapped to the corpse of Ukraine.

        Meanwhile, there was no mention of China in your excellent analysis. The Chinese cannot allow Russia to fail here. So it’s clear the Norks and the Chicoms will be supplying the Russkies on the down-low for as long as it takes. So we are battling their supply chain too!

      • Beyond the physical infrastructure capacity, America no longer has the human infrastructure capacity to re-industrialize our economy. The number of Americans earning engineering degrees awarded has not grown even remotely commensurately with the growth in engineering demand. It’s something of a vicious cycle. The lack of American graduates created the demand for H1B visa programs, which in turn depressed engineering salaries, which feeds back into lower numbers of students willing to go into engineering.

        Further, the mix of engineering degrees had skewed more into the computer/electrical fields as the silicon economy has expanded. This great for the consumer economy, but building factories and producing armaments requires the skill sets from mechanical, civil, and chemical engineers. The electrical and software guys are good at math and coding, but are utterly clueless about anything related to structures, materials, or chemicals. America would struggle to find the engineering talent to construct the factories, much less to build the armaments.

        Another factor is that top engineering talent now goes into finance, rather than into traditional engineering. Something like 90% of the engineering graduates from MIT go to work on Wall Street or for hedge funds, where they earn 5-10x what they would in a traditional engineering job. They are not going to walk away from that kind of money to build a bomb factory in Peoria.

        • This is an important point. Right now, Russia has more engineering students than the United States, before accounting for the foreign students in American schools. Then you have decades of hiring foreign temp workers into entry level STEM. These used to be the starter jobs for young people, but they have been priced out by foreigners who can never move up due to the ack of cognitive ability. Most head back home after their contract anyway.

          The net result is the bench for STEM in America is non-existent.

          • two of my kids are in engineering , and me too. the universities have strictly limited the number of kid who can go into engineering . they are not “direct admit” , so you have to take 2 years of engineering ciriculum then “apply” to the engineering school. they have a set number they will take. at my sons school, a state midwestern univ. they have an enroolment of about 20K , and they gave out 160 engineering degrees last year. even though they have 500 engineering students in fresman class and 400 in sophomore class. so severy year 300 students get screwed and have to change majors. usually to business. they t takes them 5 years to get out. They are almost all like that now.

          • miforest,

            And then add in DIE “requirements”, and the bloodbath of highly qualified, serious students must be thigh deep.

          • @miforest

            The two-year pre-engineering program before admittance to engineering has been the standard for decades. It was like that when I went to engineering school in the 1980s.

            Approximately 1/3 of the students who declared engineering their freshman year were admitted. In the freshman orientation lecture they would tell us to look at the person on either side of us, then tell us only one of the three would still be here in two years. Two 5-credit physics courses were the weed-out courses. If you got below a B in them, then your GPA would be too low for admittance to an engineering program. And yes, they mostly switch to business.

            I no longer encourage kids to study engineering, unless they have a real passion for it. The dirty little secret of engineering is that it’s a 5-10 year career and then you need to move on to a different position, unless you are in the defense sector or have a PhD with highly specialized skills. There are few worse places to be than in the shoes of a fifty-something engineer in consumer electronics company, especially if you are a white male.

          • Guest ,
            I don’t know where you went to school. but majority of enginering schools in the midwest used to be direct admit. that 2 year crap may have been arround for a while, but that dowsn’t make it right . A lot of nursing schools are like that . one that my niece looked at had 1500 sophmores trying for 100 spots. and almost no nursing school takes transfers. 1400 students were screwed royal . nost of their nursing credit wouldn’t count for any other degree, so they were starting over if they changed their major. had two years of student loans left , but 3 years of classes in annother major.

          • @miforest

            Large land grant state university in the Midwest. Roughly 25,000 students at the time. Like all land grant universities, the University had as its mission to focus on engineering, agriculture, and applied sciences. Of course, there had been mission creep over the decades so there were lots other majors available, but it still had a distinctly engineering and aggie feel to it, when compared to liberal arts universities.

            You should be proud that your kids are in engineering. My kids lacked the work ethic to go that route, which made me a bit sad.

            The US desperately needs more people with STEM backgrounds in public policy roles, including political roles. But, as the Z-man has noted, the system selects for low-to-medium IQ people who are sociopathic.

            Bill Nelson, the head of NASA, graduated with a political science from Yale in 1965, graduated from law school at Virginia in 1968, and went straight into politics in 1971 after a stint in the military.

            Zhang Keijan, his counterpart for China’s NASA, graduated with a degree in physics and worked at the Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics for ten years before moving into administrative roles.

            Any guesses as to which organization will perform its core mission more cometently?

          • “ I don’t know where you went to school. but majority of enginering schools in the midwest used to be direct admit. that 2 year crap may have been arround for a while, but that dowsn’t make it right . “

            Milforest, perhaps not so. Look, let’s face it, a High School degree ain’t what it used to be. I’d (as school administrator) push for a two year, then apply, as vs the alternative—flunking out freshmen who can’t cut it, but don’t know it, or worst of all, the inevitable lowering of department standards to match the lowered student applicant quality.

            But you certainly are correct, when my son applied to schools never once did I hear of a 2 year evaluation period, then potential admittance to their engineering program. And he applied and was admitted to a top five program (in the Midwest of course). 😉

        • Engineering is a serious course of study. Back in the 20s and 30s Engineers made money comparable to that of medical doctors and lawyers. These days, engineers get paid roughly a third of what a medical doctor or lawyer gets paid. The reason we have a few American engineers is because we don’t pay them well relative to other professions. Then employers complain Americans don’t want to be an engineer and bring in foreigners.

  27. In Afghanistan American soldiers wouldn’t leave a base until the Taliban were within visual distance. The reason for the goofy withdrawal process is the top command was confident than the ANF would hold out the taliban with American funding. Even as all intelligence was showing the total dissolution of the afghan military, leadership was incapable of changing their set assumptions.

    Something similar will occur in Ukraine. Over the next 2 years the Ukraine position will become more and more tenuous but western leadership will continue to say they are winning and looking forward to taking crimea.

    With western support Ukraine will start putting children in trenches to eat the artillery shells. All while celebrating their upcoming victory.

    In the end Ukraine will be completely destroyed, split between Poland and Russia. This is what happens when you allow yourself to become a tool of an outside country. In the neighborhood of nations nobody will look out for you except yourself. Armenia is also learning this lesson as we speak.

    • NO!!! it will be given to large corporations likd arthur daniels midland and blackrock. They will then own the worlds best farmland once the pesky ukranians have been eliminated.
      although I suspect that it will get a “tech support ” group from a middle eastern country to help run things.

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