According to news reports the United States is about to get more directly involved in the slowly evolving regional war in the Middle East. The Biden administration is planning to authorize attacks on Iranian assets in response to the attacks on the American bases in northern Iraq and Syria that killed three American soldiers. The nature of the attacks on Iranian assets is unknown, but reports suggest they will focus on militia groups that operate in the Iraq and Syria, allegedly backed by Iran.

Most of the analysis suggests that this is part of a game by the neocons running Biden policy to instigate a war with Iran. They want this game of tit-for-tat, hoping Iran will take the bait and do something the administration could then use as a reason to launch a full-scale attack on Iran itself. Others suggest the administration will avoid hitting anything important in order to avoid escalation. The United States is not prepared for war with Iran, so will try to avoid it.

This raises an important question. Could the United States ever reach a point where it could have a winnable war with Iran? Conventional wisdom does not contemplate this question, as conventional wisdom remains stuck in the 1990’s when the American military was able to blitzkrieg the Iraqi army in Desert Storm. Since then, it has been assumed that every opposing army is no better than the Iraqi army and the results would be the same if they messed with the U.S.

The war in Ukraine should have dispelled that myth. Modern war is not much like Desert Storm, especially when it comes to powerful countries. Iran is a powerful country in the region and she can project power well outside her borders. The fact that the Houthis are firing relatively inexpensive missiles at Israel all the way from Yemen should give everyone pause when thinking about a war with Iran.  The Iranians have a vastly better missile program than the Houthis.

In other words, missile technology has changed modern war. The Israelis are finding this out in the now bogged down war in Gaza. They are able to take out most of the rockets and shortrange missiles with their air defenses, but not all. The cost of defending against these missiles is very high, while the cost of producing rockets and missiles is relatively low. That is the major change in modern war. It is about the relative cost of technology between weapon systems.

This brings us back to the dreamed of war with Iran. The dream says it will not be a regular war with an invading army but a massive air assault. The dream of the shock and awe campaign never dies. The trouble is the Iranians have very good air defenses that can take down cruise missiles. Again, this is a lesson from the Ukraine war where the Ukrainians were initially able to defend against Russian missiles. The Iranians would not be able to defeat every missile, but many of them.

This is where things get tricky. The Russians learned that the only way to effectively use their missiles was to first defeat Ukrainian air defenses. They did this by flooding the system with missiles and cheap Iranian drones. Those attacks on Ukraine energy facilities were about draining the stock of Ukraine air defense missiles. Once the Russians depleted the Ukraine air defense, they then started attacking the launchers, radar stations and command centers.

It took the Russians about a year to defeat the Ukraine AD system. They launched an estimated seven thousand missiles of various types and massive numbers of cheap drones that they now produce on their own. The United States has about four thousand cruise missiles it could throw at Iran. It does not have cheap drones it can use to flood the Iranian air defense system. It is not clear how many dummy missiles the United States has for attacking air defenses.

You can quickly see the problem. The way to attack a modern air defense system is not with super smart and super expensive missiles. The air defenses simply keep pace so the cost-benefit ratio never changes. The way to defeat the Iranian air defense system is the way the Russians defeated Ukraine’s system. You throw masses of relatively cheap missiles and drones at it until they run low on ammunition and then you attack the air defense system itself. The U.S. cannot do this.

Then there is the reverse problem. The Iranians have built up their anti-ship systems to the point where they could hit U.S. surface ships operating in the Persian Gulf, which presents an obvious problem. American ships have sophisticated air defense systems but they are not equipped with unlimited missiles. Iran could throw waves of drones at these ships, much as the Russians did to the Ukraine system. This is also what the Houthis have been doing in the Red Sea.

There is a bit of irony to all of this. The long-forgotten Iran – Iraq war was a foreshadowing of the future battlespace. Both Iran and Iraq had relatively expensive aircraft they could deploy against enemy positions, but they dared not risk them against relatively inexpensive air defenses. Iran in particular was able to neutralize the superior Iraq air force this way. The result was something like we are seeing in Ukraine where both sides relied on artillery and massive mine fields.

The microprocessor revolution has allowed air defenses to catchup to even the best air assault weapons in terms of effectiveness. More important, it has allowed air defenses to surpass air power in cost effectiveness. On the other hand, cheap technology has resulted in cheap drones that can evade and overwhelm expensive air defense systems with the result being a stalemate in the air. Like land war after the introduction of the machine gun, air war is now a war of attrition.

The post-Cold War assumption was that American technology was such a force multiplier there was no need to focus on the production of cheaper weapons, especially cheap air weapons. America’s high-tech air force and missile systems would own the skies in any war. The result of this technological revolution is that American air power is no longer unchallengeable and that means the American military is no longer an unstoppable force that can bully the world.

One final change makes war with Iran unlikely. In the two Iraq wars, the United States could muster forces in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In the first war they also had forces in Turkey, but the Turks refused in the second war. This created a logistical problem leading to a much slower invasion. In a war with Iran, the Saudis would not host American troops and the Turks would certainly not do it. In other words, America no longer has the local support for a land war in the region.

This is why there will not be a war with Iran. Even if the United States does something stupid and attacks Iran itself, the Iranians know time is on their side. America cannot maintain those bases in Iraq and Syria much longer. Iran can use local militias to attrit those facilities until they must be withdrawn. In the next decade the United States will not be a player in the region. This is why the Saudis are in BRICS and why Iran can bide its time and avoid a war with the United States.

The Biden administration will put on a show by attacking caves and bunkers in Iraq and Syria, but avoid hitting anything important. There is a good chance they warn Iran in advance in order to make sure nothing bad happens. A flunky from the administration will come out and explain why these attacks were important and the slobbering toadies in regime media will dutifully repeat it. Meanwhile the sun sets a bit more on the American empire in the Middle East.

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