The Setting Sun

According to news reports the United States is about to get more directly involved in the slowly evolving regional war in the Middle East. The Biden administration is planning to authorize attacks on Iranian assets in response to the attacks on the American bases in northern Iraq and Syria that killed three American soldiers. The nature of the attacks on Iranian assets is unknown, but reports suggest they will focus on militia groups that operate in the Iraq and Syria, allegedly backed by Iran.

Most of the analysis suggests that this is part of a game by the neocons running Biden policy to instigate a war with Iran. They want this game of tit-for-tat, hoping Iran will take the bait and do something the administration could then use as a reason to launch a full-scale attack on Iran itself. Others suggest the administration will avoid hitting anything important in order to avoid escalation. The United States is not prepared for war with Iran, so will try to avoid it.

This raises an important question. Could the United States ever reach a point where it could have a winnable war with Iran? Conventional wisdom does not contemplate this question, as conventional wisdom remains stuck in the 1990’s when the American military was able to blitzkrieg the Iraqi army in Desert Storm. Since then, it has been assumed that every opposing army is no better than the Iraqi army and the results would be the same if they messed with the U.S.

The war in Ukraine should have dispelled that myth. Modern war is not much like Desert Storm, especially when it comes to powerful countries. Iran is a powerful country in the region and she can project power well outside her borders. The fact that the Houthis are firing relatively inexpensive missiles at Israel all the way from Yemen should give everyone pause when thinking about a war with Iran.  The Iranians have a vastly better missile program than the Houthis.

In other words, missile technology has changed modern war. The Israelis are finding this out in the now bogged down war in Gaza. They are able to take out most of the rockets and shortrange missiles with their air defenses, but not all. The cost of defending against these missiles is very high, while the cost of producing rockets and missiles is relatively low. That is the major change in modern war. It is about the relative cost of technology between weapon systems.

This brings us back to the dreamed of war with Iran. The dream says it will not be a regular war with an invading army but a massive air assault. The dream of the shock and awe campaign never dies. The trouble is the Iranians have very good air defenses that can take down cruise missiles. Again, this is a lesson from the Ukraine war where the Ukrainians were initially able to defend against Russian missiles. The Iranians would not be able to defeat every missile, but many of them.

This is where things get tricky. The Russians learned that the only way to effectively use their missiles was to first defeat Ukrainian air defenses. They did this by flooding the system with missiles and cheap Iranian drones. Those attacks on Ukraine energy facilities were about draining the stock of Ukraine air defense missiles. Once the Russians depleted the Ukraine air defense, they then started attacking the launchers, radar stations and command centers.

It took the Russians about a year to defeat the Ukraine AD system. They launched an estimated seven thousand missiles of various types and massive numbers of cheap drones that they now produce on their own. The United States has about four thousand cruise missiles it could throw at Iran. It does not have cheap drones it can use to flood the Iranian air defense system. It is not clear how many dummy missiles the United States has for attacking air defenses.

You can quickly see the problem. The way to attack a modern air defense system is not with super smart and super expensive missiles. The air defenses simply keep pace so the cost-benefit ratio never changes. The way to defeat the Iranian air defense system is the way the Russians defeated Ukraine’s system. You throw masses of relatively cheap missiles and drones at it until they run low on ammunition and then you attack the air defense system itself. The U.S. cannot do this.

Then there is the reverse problem. The Iranians have built up their anti-ship systems to the point where they could hit U.S. surface ships operating in the Persian Gulf, which presents an obvious problem. American ships have sophisticated air defense systems but they are not equipped with unlimited missiles. Iran could throw waves of drones at these ships, much as the Russians did to the Ukraine system. This is also what the Houthis have been doing in the Red Sea.

There is a bit of irony to all of this. The long-forgotten Iran – Iraq war was a foreshadowing of the future battlespace. Both Iran and Iraq had relatively expensive aircraft they could deploy against enemy positions, but they dared not risk them against relatively inexpensive air defenses. Iran in particular was able to neutralize the superior Iraq air force this way. The result was something like we are seeing in Ukraine where both sides relied on artillery and massive mine fields.

The microprocessor revolution has allowed air defenses to catchup to even the best air assault weapons in terms of effectiveness. More important, it has allowed air defenses to surpass air power in cost effectiveness. On the other hand, cheap technology has resulted in cheap drones that can evade and overwhelm expensive air defense systems with the result being a stalemate in the air. Like land war after the introduction of the machine gun, air war is now a war of attrition.

The post-Cold War assumption was that American technology was such a force multiplier there was no need to focus on the production of cheaper weapons, especially cheap air weapons. America’s high-tech air force and missile systems would own the skies in any war. The result of this technological revolution is that American air power is no longer unchallengeable and that means the American military is no longer an unstoppable force that can bully the world.

One final change makes war with Iran unlikely. In the two Iraq wars, the United States could muster forces in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In the first war they also had forces in Turkey, but the Turks refused in the second war. This created a logistical problem leading to a much slower invasion. In a war with Iran, the Saudis would not host American troops and the Turks would certainly not do it. In other words, America no longer has the local support for a land war in the region.

This is why there will not be a war with Iran. Even if the United States does something stupid and attacks Iran itself, the Iranians know time is on their side. America cannot maintain those bases in Iraq and Syria much longer. Iran can use local militias to attrit those facilities until they must be withdrawn. In the next decade the United States will not be a player in the region. This is why the Saudis are in BRICS and why Iran can bide its time and avoid a war with the United States.

The Biden administration will put on a show by attacking caves and bunkers in Iraq and Syria, but avoid hitting anything important. There is a good chance they warn Iran in advance in order to make sure nothing bad happens. A flunky from the administration will come out and explain why these attacks were important and the slobbering toadies in regime media will dutifully repeat it. Meanwhile the sun sets a bit more on the American empire in the Middle East.


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219 thoughts on “The Setting Sun

  1. America is like a punch-drunk fighter that has to get up every couple of years and take a swing at the world.

    Being burly and oversized, it has not fought with fear in its eyes for a long time. Vietnam burned its fingertips, but didn’t make it gunshy. Even in Vietnam, the body counts were favoring America 15-to-1.

    If America was smart, it would have two armies: a regular army composed of native-born Americans; and a mercenary army for dalliances in the world. The mercenary army would pay in one currency: American citizenship after 20 years of warfare on behalf of the GAE. America could start by recruiting men who can fight: Germans and Croatians.

    [To read more stuff by me, click on GREG NIKOLIC up above with your mouse]

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    • Ge… Germans?

      You mean you would be recruiting bike helmet wearing single child state employed soy boys with sociology majors voting Green from Germany to fight for a piece of paper?

      The propaganda would need to be on Covid levels to get anywhere with this…

  2. I don’t support the Empire.
    However- that this is same as Ukraine…
    No.
    (Nor despite certain feverish fears is the US military the secret government 🤣. )
    We aren’t being defeated in battle since 1951 in Korea, really late 1950.
    We are betrayed at table, and given the impossible mission of making them democracy which is really the unspeakable mission of making them White.
    As if that was even possible in America!

    However the notion that Iran is an unworkable problem isn’t true. Iran puts its resources into its Bully Boys the IGRC, not its conventional armed forces. I’m sure they have formidable air and missile and drone defense. I’m also sure that what was done to Europe’s energy infrastructure could be done to Iran’s. Iran really is a gas station, and oil infrastructure is fixed. Not to mention they aren’t united at all. There’s reasons for a small Iranian army, a large political army of the IGRC, and that Iran with 12 times as long and greater expenditure than us can’t build an atomic bomb. It’s not IQ, sorry.

    Yes we could certainly botch the job and sail the fleet into the Persian Gulf. Or attempt to democratize Iran (again). That doesn’t mean we will… especially with a Democratic president at the helm. The motive to sabotage is far less.

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    • I admire the defiant patriotism you and others here like Left Coast Inmate show when American soldiers are killed. Even if i blasted Left Coast for his (honestly insane) suggestion to nuke Iran to smithereens.

      But another war in the ME?? The national debt is now what, 35 trillion?? Before you know it it’ll be 50 trillion. No one knows what this even means.

      And worse, America is being given away to anyone from Timbuktu who shows up. Your patriotism is needed. But at the Mexican border amd against the regime in DC who somehow insanely think it is theirs to give away. Your enemies live in DC (and to Europeans reading here, in Brussels). Not in Tehran. They want you angry at the Iranians. But the people giving away your neighborhood don’t wear towels on their heads or speak weird languages. Don’t fall for their misdirecting schemes. America is an occupied country and Europe is too. Those regimes, that’s the enemy. Direct your patriotism AGAINST them

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      • Just to clarify, I’m not patriotic, I’m just providing hypothetical responses that the GAE could potentially choose to do if they have the desire to (i.e., the capability exists). I find that too many dissidents underestimate the GAE and I think it’s because they’re hopeful it goes away sooner.

  3. The West is learning a very difficult lesson. You cannot fight an industrial war unless you are an industrial nation. Financialized, knowledge based economies don’t make very much other than derivatives.

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      • It’s repo on the derivatives, man. You don’t destroy artillery because then your institutional master would hold nothing. After the derivative crash, send a repo team to drive off with the artillery battery’s artillery at night. Hand over the repossessed artillery pieces to master for auction in exchange for shekels. Reeeee. Po. ’cause the rooskies are now reeeee-ing and dey po’. Ain’ no point a callin’ the po po, Ivan.

  4. My take is there are several different groups in DC vying for power in a Regency Presidency.

    Obama/Jarrett still wants a “deal” with Iran, hates Israel as Team White, and seeks to destroy US military power. The Squad, AWFL wine moms, BLM, all fall more or less into this category. Obama is the “real” President but he is not in the White House, is lazy, and has conflicts with the day-to-day “President” Dr. Jill and/or the First Crackhead. Not the least of which are the Michelle Obama replaces Biden rumors.

    Neo-cons, (((small hats))) and certain elements of the military want Iran dealt with likely want War, as does probably Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed/Martin, etc. More orders, promotions for Admirals and Generals, Israel’s most dangerous enemy taken down. [Iran wants to destroy Israel, not for religious reasons but Imperial ones, Iran’s leaders want to essentially restore the Persian Empire from Egypt to the Balkans, running afoul of the Saudis, and particularly the Turks. For now their attention is to Israel, it would be a demonstration of their burgeoning imperial power. But sooner or later Iran will come into conflict with both Turkey and Russia and likely Pakistan as well.]

    I think on balance Obama holds sway, but Dr. Jill and the First Crackhead might reason, a war would allow suspension of elections, or such “special rules” as to guarantee a win. Ideally suspension of elections “to save ‘Our Democracy’ TM” would be best as it would allow the First Crackhead and Dr. Jill to grift for years, using AI generated virtual Biden (complete with glitches). These are two deeply stupid people who think they are super-geniuses. They probably think its 1988 when Reagan sank the Iranian navy in a day.

    [OT, I would not say that “always” cheap and plenty beats fewer but better, it “depends” on the circumstances, lethality, consequences, etc. For example four nuclear ICBMS will beat 3,000 prop driven bombers. But overall the Iranians/ Houthis have the advantage, their missiles have a range of around 1200 miles and our carrier aircraft a range of about 700 miles maximum with drop tanks. Not sure if we can launch/recover Reaper drones and the like off carriers, they have greater range with potentially greater payload. No risk if they go down. War with Iran or even more with Yemen, would entail of course massive Aloha Snackbars at home which creates more chaos for the Party of Chaos, both a positive and a negative.]

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    • Even The Precious has to know that the ship has sailed on a deal with Iran of the nature that he was seeking.

      Repeating myself, but I wouldn’t underestimate the degree to which the decision makers of the GAE are driven by the belief that once the battle is joined, the “hidden hand” of “free democracy” will move to ensure victory.

      For suspension of elections to become viable, Iranian cells/proxies already inside AINO would need to go hot. Otherwise it’s a tough sell to suspend elections for a war halfway around the world. But then I thought the jabs were a tough sell too, and they were widely embraced, so what do I know

    • Yes Barry still running the WH, influence also from Jilly, Val, Michie, Pelosi and the Hilderbeest . . . the Grrls. That dark continent big-chief it-takes-a-village vibe. Death by community organizer.

      Tater Joe doesn’t even decide upon his own bowel movements. He does however enjoy ice cream and an occasional sniff.

  5. I’m no fan of the spirit of Iran, i.e., prince of Persia. To say the least.

    But war with that power on the other side of the world would be suicide for the new, pinker ‘n gayer, military. Iran would luurve that, please do attack us idiot infidels. The U.S. doesn’t have domestic production to supply such a war and oh — hello Afghanistan! — THEY LIVE THERE. I’m not sure the New U.S. Molitary could take down Guatemala, at this point.

    Even an armchair analyst can see these things.

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  6. One wonders how much DC strategy planners remain guided by the GAE gospel that “free democracies” always defeat those not qualifying as such. My guess is they are guided by that more now than they were in 1938, because the current crop of GAE “leadership” was raised and weaned on this kind of GAE gospel, whereas that generation back then was not. So the base assumption would be that GAE victory is inevitable, since its prospective foes are neither “free” nor “democracies.” Never mind the silly quibbling about missile costs and drone swarms. Mere details, against the inevitable march of GAE history.

    However, there is some reason to believe GAE strategy is more purposeful than the flailing it often appears to be. When one considers the possibility that sanctions on Russia, along with the coming CBDC, were designed not so much to keep Russia out but more to keep us (and Europe) in. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/01/26/big-picture-ed-dowd-is-correct-in-this-review-every-opaque-action-in-western-government-is-aligned-toward-a-dollar-based-cbdc/

    Then apply that same kind of thinking to the current situation in the Red Sea, which has little economic effect on the GAE proper, but great economic effect on Europe and China, the former which the GAE seeks to keep in the fold, the latter which it seeks to knock down a peg or three. https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/01/28/red-sea-crisis-opportunity-for-us-weaken-europe-china/

    In this context, shots fired with Iran are just peripheral collateral damage, probably stage managed. Of more concern to Israel than to the GAE. If the two can be considered separate, but maybe they can’t.

    • As Simplicius has pointed out, there is no way that American boots can get on the ground in Iran, because there aren’t any safe staging areas for troops and equipment…Any large grouping of either would be hit by Iranian missiles…and as Z-man points out as well, American ships would be sunk, and the Strait of Hormuz closed…
      No way the Pentagon would even consider such an attack, regardless of who’s President…

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      • Perhaps the wide availability of cheap and effective weapons will finally persuade even the dullest-minded statesmen that war is far too risky to be indulged in lightly, that even the weak sisters of yesteryear have grown sharp teeth.

    • JZ-

      The controllers can wish for a CBDC wearing the dollar’s skinsuit all they want.

      They don’t seem to realize collapsing the USD is a one-way express elevator to financial hell.

      • When you get down to brass tacks, I view CBDC kind of like “green” energy. Something they stupidly believe they can speak into existence and make happen in short order, are willing to throw trillions at, but can’t make viable, at least not anywhere near the scale they imagine.

        And as we have already seen, they don’t need CBDC to de-bank us or seize/freeze our assets. So it doesn’t really introduce much that is new in terms of economic coercion.

        • True, but they do seem to be trying to get rid of paper notes.

          I think they must have read 1984 and gotten envious. The less control we plebs have, the better, and having the ability to take or freeze all of anyone’s money with the push of a button rather than a physical seizure is likely a very appealing prospect to our (((rulers))). There are still many who hide gold and Benjamins under their mattresses.

          Also consider the psychological effect of all your purchases being electronically tracked. Big big brother vibes.

          Anyway, I don’t think it would work if they were to began trying it in earnest, but I guess that’s why they have been putting feelers out, to test the viability of such a move. I believe it would work out about as well as their attempts at disarming the public though.

          For all of his faults, the American Joe is still a staunch defender of his individual lawn. Imagine how strong we would be if we were able to organize huh? Maybe someday. Once their control apparatus fractures enough. Might even be soon, they have gotten much weaker as of late.

          • But most of that can already be accomplished. How many of us have our assets in bank accounts, 401ks, etc. vs in our mattresses or buried in the yard?

  7. ‘Member when Ronald “warmonger who will blow up the world” Reagan responded to the bombing of the marine barracks in Beirut by taking the marines out of Beirut?

    Good times.

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  8. I’m going to play devil’s advocate here. I’m sure that Z is right and Iranian air defenses are much better than anything the U.S. encountered in the past 20 years of warfare, but I still think the U.S./ZOG military has a hell of a lot of capability to put a hurtin’ on Iran, at least in the short run.

    Clearly there will be no ground war, that’s out of the question. Negro 11 Bravos are the tripwire, but the ZOG strategy will be to prosecute an air and missile war conducted by skilled white pilots. I think they can remain largely out of reach of Iranian retaliation by using carriers (which will obviously not be operating in the Gulf) and by using ASMs on heavy bombers out of Diego Garcia and other locations. Another possibility is to use SLBMs with conventional warheads. Let’s not forget stealth technology either. Can the Iranians defeat it? I don’t know but so far it has worked pretty well. Targeting Iranian oil infrastructure would be an economic boon to the Sunni Saudis and Kuwaitis, and could be used to leverage their acquiescence.

    Iran would most likely respond by 1) throwing everything they can at ZOG’s precious Land of Milk and Honey and leveling neighborhoods in Tel Aviv, 2) inciting Muslim suicide and terrorist attacks across the West and in Israel, and 3) sponsoring an all-out invasion of Israel by Hezbollah and an uprising on the West Bank.

    Of course, such retaliation would enable ZOG to declare a state of war and a state of emergency, suspend civil liberties, increase government debt and government defense spending in an election year, and enable Biden to campaign on the rally-round-the-flag effect.

    The wild card would be how China and Russia react. (Of course if the Iranians have nukes and are willing to use them, that would be the ultimate trump card, but I doubt ZOG would undertake such a campaign if they thought Iran already had the Bomb.)

    Ultimately, I think the decision to directly bomb Iran or not will be largely dictated by how it will be perceived to affect Israel.

    In the long run, yes, the power of the GAE is clearly waning in the Middle East. But even a prizefighter past his prime getting beat by a younger up-and-comer can still throw a hell of a punch.

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    • As I said in another comment, I am not saying Iran would be unscathed. They would take a lot of damage. The issue is the cost of inflicting that damage. Attacking Iran would be a trillion dollar expense in the end, becasue Iran would retaliate over a wide range of fronts. That comes after however many planes and maybe ships lost inflicting that damage.

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      • “Attacking Iran would be a trillion dollar expense in the end”

        But it would be a hell of an economic “stimulus” in an election year. The US debt was $10 trillion in 2008, today it’s $34 trillion. I doubt they would lose any sleep over making it $35 trillion.

        Hell, trillion-dollar annual deficits are now the norm.

      • Forget the military cost, think of what $200 a barrel oil does to the world economy and global debt markets.

        Oil and debt are more powerful than the US military or the dollar.

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        • I don’t think the current gov’t could survive such an economic shock at this point.

          The parallels to Weimar are already at about 80% We are well past the point of being more degenerate culturally not to mention already being heavily indebted… add a major military defeat and hyperinflation/deflation to that mix? If our rulers attempt it, it’s likely going to be the last thing they are able to control.

        • “Oil and debt are more powerful than the US military or the dollar.”

          Higher oil prices outside North America are bullish for the U.S. dollar.

    • Iran can plant a conventional ballistic missile in every base we
      have in the ME. Also, plant one anywhere in Izrael including
      there nuclear energy production facility.

      • It’s funny how amidst all this, nobody (in the media, anyway) seems to be asking why the GAE has bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. The Biden backers I know, 16 years ago voted for The Precious to get “us” out of Iraq. They don’t appear to be real concerned that “we” are still there.

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        • Yep. Those bases sure look like imperial outposts to me, and I’ve been taught most of my life that imperialism is one of whitey’s most grievous sins. I guess when it’s the Anal Empire you’re talkin’ about, it’s okay.

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          • One of the illegal ZOG bases in Syria is called “Mission Support Site Conoco.”

            Whatever happened to the “no blood for oil” lefties?

            Crickets…

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        • The bases in Syria and Iraq are illegal under international law. Iraq asked us to leave and we refused. Syria is a sovereign nation, and the bases were established ten years ago to assist rebels in overthrowing the government of Syria. The War Powers Act has been completely ignored by three presidents.

          I believe the bases in Jordan exist with the permission of the king.

    • I have read that carriers could not get any closer to Iran than Sicily to be out of the range of Iranian missiles. That would mean they would need landing bases in the Levant, also well within the range of missiles.

        • Tankers are modified commercials, they light up on radar screens like the Rockefeller Christmas tree. Manned combat aircraft are like cavalry 100 yrs ago

          • Yeah, but they don’t fly into a combat zone, they extend the range of heavy bombers launching ASMs into the combat zone.

  9. In attritional warfare I think the T-34 principle is the way to go. That is, make (or buy) the good enough at 20 percent in bulk instead of the “Mercedes” that costs a lot. Here it means having a ton of cheap missiles and drones to exhaust the enemy. And yes, also some high end stuff too. But the Pentagon wants fancy luxury items across the board. Maybe because of where ex Pentagon men often work but that’s beside the point. The end effect is like using a 100K samurai sword to open up a can of tuna fish. No wonder trillions of pocket change disappear on the Pentagon couch

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    • You are undoubtedly right. Russia showed the way. Fire a missile at a target to see where the Patriot batteries are, then fire enough cheap missiles at the battery so that worst case, the launchers run out of Patriots, so the rest of your missiles get through and destroy the launcher, or best case, one sneaks through early on, and you get by with fewer missiles, all the ones already on the way rearrange the rubble.

      Then, send in one or two of the better missiles (in Russia’s case, hypersonics) to put an exclamation point on the exchange.

      • In war ten average items generally beats one super item from the same category. Ten Shermans/T 34 > one tiger, ten mustangs > one Me 262. And probably ten (wired up) conscripts (or insurgents) > one SAS/navy Seal/spetznat

        But where it really gets crazy is in the asymmetrical. Missiles and drones vs heavy, expensive manned platforms. From RPGs on tanks to A2A missiles vs planes to anti ship missiles vs aircraft carriers. There the economic imbalance can break the bank

        • Moran ya Simba: “In war ten average items generally beats one super item from the same category. Ten Shermans/T 34 > one tiger, ten mustangs > one Me 262. And probably ten (wired up) conscripts (or insurgents) > one SAS/navy Seal/spetznat”

          ==========

          Saint Joseph Djugashvili, PBUH: “Quantity has a Quality all its own.”

  10. To the chagrin of the Jew bashers, Z makes a good point. The Israelis are not apt to willingly commit suicide. If they were, they don’t need drones and air defenses. They have region-wide, gain of function weapons that make covid look like the sniffles.

    Iran may become the peace broker once Israel is on board. At that point, Iran might have to take the Palestinian radicals, backed by the Harvard kids, in hand and tell them, “Take your half a loaf and quit the b.s.”

    Israel then petitions to join the BRICS and the BRICS whose heads aren’t full of ZOG fantasies go, “A cooperative Middle Eastern Taiwan. And the annoying Palestinians pacified? Why not?”

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    • There’d probably have to be a revolution in Israel first. Which could be a possibility, you’d think.

    • Or maybe Jews get their second-worst nightmare: Being ignored. (Their biggest nightmare having been created by some fictional books.)

      Jews are a middle-man people. (Others use a less flattering but apt description.) They can endure many things but being excluded isn’t one of them. It’s why they endlessly push for diversity and inclusion on every country in the world – outside of their own, of course.

      Israel may have to learn to be just another country, just another people. They won’t take that well.

      The rest of the world is very aware of Jewish behavior and what their control of the commanding heights of Western countries has done to them. They won’t let Jews do that to them. They’ll do business with Israel and Jews, but they won’t let them into their systems. They understand what happens when you let Jews attach to your society.

      But don’t worry about the Jews. They’ll still control the US and Europe and have tremendous influence over South America, not that they seem to care much. But their control over the US and it’s lapdog Europe might cause issues with Israel and Jews getting close to the BRICs. You can’t be buddies with the BRICs while the country that you control threatens the BRICs.

      Alas, the Jews might have to play by everyone else’s rules instead of their own. We’ll see.

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    • This comment rubs me the wrong way. Maybe instead in 100 years Jews will be expected to atone for their various mischief much like the Germans have spent the last 80 years atoning for their (genuine) crimes.

      At the end of the day no one is in favor of genuine equality. Everyone’s in favor of being special. Geese and ganders and stuff….

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    • Israelis are not apt willingly to commit suicide? They are doing so already with their complete lack of strategic thinking viz a vis Gaza and the West Bank. On 6th Oct, the Palestinian issue was as interesting to the world as hoola hoops. After 25k Palestinian dead, the whole world wants Israel punished. Whatever happens in Iran, it is unlikely that Israel has any long term future.

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  11. You could blind their air defense with the EMP of a nuclear blast, and then proceed to bombard them with conventional or nuclear weapons. A war with Iran is easily winnable, there just needs to be a willingness to employ nuclear weapons and demolish the country entirely.

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    • The glitch is that Russia and Iran are closely aligned, and Moscow might respond in kind. Nukes are avoided for numerous strategic reasons, most of them not related at all to morality.

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        • Yes. Yes, they are in an alliance. The documents are on Putin’s desk and he will sign the agreement with Iran. If we move before the formality of his signature, it will make no difference. Russia will move to protect Iran and our naval forces will be sunk by hypersonic cruise missiles.

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    • And when oil hits $200 a barrel, even assuming that Iran or any other country doesn’t fight back militarily?

      Bye, bye, world economy. Inflation spikes, interest rates spike, debt defaults. Welcome to the Great Depression 2.0.

      Nice plan.

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        • There’s no Green agenda with the economy in a debt default recession/depression and unemployment at 10%.

          There’s also no Biden in the WH at that point because no amount of election night trickery would keep him in office.

          Oil prices and debt markets are the most power combined forces on the planet. If you unleash them, you’re done.

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        • Good for the managers.

          Trouble is, none of the green trash can be made without massive fossil fuel inputs.

        • There is no such thing as green energy in sufficient amounts to keep the elite in the lifestyle to which it has become accustomed, not to mention the plebes.

      • That is a huge concern to the Regime. If it did go to war with Iran, it probably would be for that very reason and after Biden is re-installed. Again, though, the Russian alliance with Iran likely would act as a brake if sane people prevailed (insert laughter).

        • Even if Biden is re-elected/installed, they don’t want the Great Depression 2.0.

          The US could only hit Iran so hard. If we hit them too hard, we could disrupt the oil trade by damaging their infrastructure. Or they could go nuclear and close the Strait of Hormuz. Or Russian, Saudi and Iran agree to cut production by 10% or 20%.

          There’s no way that the US can defeat Iran b/c we could never hit them hard enough, so this whole thing is pointless.

    • Explain how the war is “winnable”. Do the Iranians give up and let the US occupy Teheran?

      A war with like you envisage Tehran is no more winnable than the Ukraine war is winnable. The Iranians will not give up. The Russians will not give up. The Iraqis and Afghanis and Vietnamese and Somalians did not give up.

      All these wars are a shameful waste.

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      1
      • Iran and the Iranian people would effectively cease to exist after a strategic nuclear exchange with them. The Iraqis, Afghanis, Vietnamese, and Somalis were not exterminated.

        26
    • That’s a great idea Sun Tzu. Break the nuclear taboo over three dead soldiers, ensure everyone and their mother scrables like crazy to get (more) nukes. And set us all on the path to happy existence as radioactive plasma. You might just be smart enough to work for Lindsey graham

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      • I doubt the GAE will go scorched earth over this, but there are definitely escalation paths to this and those escalation paths would indeed ‘easily’ destroy Iran. Z thinking the GAE would accept a USN ship being sunk, but the escalation from that can easily end in some splitting of atoms, tactical or otherwise.

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        • Yes it could easily end in that. Why is exactly why your suggested war plan negatively affects the probability that there will be anyone around for the 2100 New Years party

          • I firmly believe there is a decent chance that any humans living in the 22nd century will be living in subway tunnels. We are fortunate that there has not been a strategic nuclear exchange, if even by accident.

            2
            4
    • “ You could blind their air defense with the EMP of a nuclear blast”

      Can we? EMP threat has been known since the 50’s. You think we and they don’t harden their systems against such? It is not that costly from what I hear if one assumes EMP protection from the get go.

    • Well, bless your little heart!

      Are you familiar with the episode in ancient history wherein the King of Lydia inquired of the Delphic Oracle about the advisability of his kingdom attacking the Persian Empire? The Oracle responded that if he did, a great empire would be destroyed, which he took as a yes, and acted upon this understanding. But when the dust had settled, it was the Lydian Empire that had been destroyed. The moral of the story? War is always uncertain, particularly aggressive wars.

  12. “This is why there will not be a war with Iran.”

    I dunno. The f***ing idiots ostensibly in charge in DC have nothing that can be called an imperial “grand strategy.” Everything emanating from them seems to be by ear, ad hoc and makeshift. And if they provoke Iran enough I suppose Iran will have to respond in some manner. And then the law of unintended consequences kicks in.

    Also, perhaps this administration is angling for a war on account of it being election year and the abysmal poll ratings of the senile old coot who is the figurehead chief executive.

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    • I hope Z is right about that. But he’s assuming a level of rationality the wokesters might struggle to deliver

      10
      • The GAE is ruled by barmy shit-house rats and gibbering Hutus with negative IQs. Assuming rationality and competence from these freaks may well be a bridge too far.

        11
  13. I fully expect that in the event of a serious escalation with Iran, USA will nuke one of their military/nuclear sites. First nuke fired in anger since Nagasaki.

  14. Meantime, the mosques that dot Berlin, England, France, Holland, Scandinavia and stretch out across from New York to Minnesota to California mean that the sun no longer sets on the emergent Islamic caliphate.

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        • I gotta admit, the passage of time has made Khomeini look a lot more rational than I once thought him to be

          12
          • Too many gay parades and trans story hours at the local children’s library can change your mind about a lot of things. .

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        • There are worse things than being atomized by a nuclear explosion.

          Living under a successfully implemented global CBDC regime would be one of them.

          • Well the Muslims ritually cut off the labia & the clitoris…

            [Apologies to 3g4me if she were to stumble upon this kkk0mment.]

          • I had that in mind which is why it wasn’t meant to be a sarcastic question.

            This all just goes to show why it is HELL when masculine civilized men abdicate their responsibilities to perverts at home and savages abroad.

            It’s our fault. For being weak, wimpy and listening to bullsh!t. WE abdicated. The gods must curse and mock us

  15. Btw, I read the other day that Russia’s GDP is 3.5% of the combined GDP of US, EU, Japan and South Korea. And, yet, Russia is outproducing that group is nearly every category of land-based military hardware.

    Russia’s military budget before the Ukraine was one-tenth that of the US and god knows how much smaller the combined military budget of the US, EU, Japan and South Korea.

    Okay, we have to maintain a much larger navy, but this is such an indictment of the MIC and Washington corruption. And, yet, no one seems to bring this up. It’s hilarious.

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    • Russia’s GDP is 3.5% of the combined GDP
      Shows how worthless that GDP number is, like those videos from Russians gloating about buying $100 worth of U.S. groceries for $15 in Russia.

      27
    • Those GDP figures are garbage. Look rather at the overall productive capacity of the *real* economy. The US economy is probably around 50% larger than the Russian economy and the Chinese economy is around 50% larger than the US economy.

      Toilet seats sold to the Pentagon for $300 are being counted as a $300 contribution to GDP, to give one small example. The economic “contributions” of large financial organisations (probably running into trillions of “fictitious capital”) are also counted in the US GDP, to give a large example. The US economy is one of smoke and mirrors, a world of make-believe.

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      • “…and the Chinese economy is around 50% larger than the US economy.”

        Even this isn’t saying that much. China’s GDP is much more heavily weighted towards manufacturing and heavy industry than the US. They can probably outproduce us 100 to 1 in industrial output. Even higher if they stop supplying us with things like steel.

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        • Oh, I agree. I wanted to make a conservative estimate for fear of the howls of the Boeotians who think the USA is still top dog.

      • Russian manufacturing capacity is equal to the US and Europe. Chinese capacity is greater than the US and Europe combined. Russia has as many STEM majors in college right now as the US, despite having a third of the population. In other words, before you get to demographic issues, the relative economic strength of Russia and China is equal to or greater than the US and Europe.

        This is one negative knock-on effect of the reserve currency. Our way of looking at the economy has evolved to be how a bank or mint looks at its economic performance. That would probably be fine if our rulers were not hell bent on transforming the world into a gay death cult. Now that the rest of the world is tired of the gay death cult stuff, they are looking for a new banker and that will be the death of us.

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        • Call me optimistic, I think that’s our only real chance at rebirth. Let somebody else et financialized lol.

        • Apparently we have to learn the hard way that a money printer is not actually a factory in the strategic sense

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        • Triffin’s Dilemma.

          Yes, I was having some fun with using GDP numbers, as they don’t account for manufacturing capacity. The US GDP figure has dramatically more fluff that other countries.

          The death of our manufacturing was guaranteed by the dollar being the GRC based on oil being priced in dollars. This meant that we had to run big trade deficits with countries that needed a lot of oil.

          Well, who’s that? Why it’s countries with big manufacturing sectors, like Germany, Japan and, later, China.

          The dollar is an incredibly powerful tool, but it destroys our manufacturing sector, which is ultimately a country’s source of power. Now, we have the dollar but not the military to back it up.

          That’s fine so long as no alternative trading/finance systems are out there, but as we’re witnessing, various countries are working on that. It’ll take time. They’ll be missteps, but, ultimately, a country who’s military is no longer a threat and who’s economy is large but not dominant will not remain the lone global superpower.

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          • The petro-dollar will be the most interesting story in modern history at some point in the future. Pegging a national currency to energy was pure genius and really only possible in the industrial age. Imagine pegging a currency to fertilizer in the medieval age. It would require a narrow control of cow shit.

            How the petro-dollar ends is unknown, but probably not all of a sudden. It will unwind in fits and starts. The question is will the empire unwind in fits and starts? Will our society decline in fits and starts? It is the old line about bankruptcy being a little at a time then all of a sudden.

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          • Yeah, the petrodollar was a unique situation and that was perfect for a sea power like the US. You have the one commodity that’s literally the lifeline of modern society controlled by a tiny number of players. And it needs to be shipped.

            As to unwinding the dollar system, yeah, that’s a tough one, in part because no one else even wants the job of being the GRC – nor, of course, are they capable of doing so. They saw what it did to the US.

            That said, the Eurodollar system is inherently unstable. The Fed doesn’t control it. The Fed doesn’t even fully understand it; I don’t think anyone does. Nobody’s even sure how big it is.

            Sooner or later, it will need to be replaced, but how and when that happens is anyone’s guess. The problem is that the global financial system really likes using one currency. It’s just a lot easier.

            It’s kind of like how English is the world language. Nobody wants to change that. It’s just so much easier to learn one language and know that everyone else uses that language. And once everyone speaks English, good luck trying to replace it. Too much sunk costs.

            It’s the same way with global finance. But seizing Russia’s treasuries and kicking them out of SWIFT is a lot of motivation to figure something else out. I mean, I’ll learn another language if it means that my economy can’t be destroyed by a country that won’t shut up about how it wants to destroy my economy.

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          • I’m not sure about the slow collapse of the petrodollar, I mean, that’s probably the way to bet, but a big part of the value of a dollar exists in people’s minds. A “bank run” is not out of the question (along with an associated collapse in global trade, oops).

        • Yep. For all our Woke talk about respecting other cultures and slagging off our own, the West still believes that everyone shares their “values”. The have no clue that the “RoW” – aka 90% of the planet – hate nearly everything that we stand for. Buy was Fukuyama wrong!

      • The real measure of an economy is PPP, purchasing power parity. It’s simply what can be bought with a unit of currency. Russia seems to get a lot more bang for their buck with their defense spending but if you reprice it compared to what they actually get with each ruble spent, spending looks pretty even. But stuff like F-35s and ford class carriers are more than 10 times the cost which makes our GDP look much larger than what it really is.

        The example used about $15 for $100 groceries Russia v. US goes to GDP too, artificially inflating it by more than 6 times.

        As a country we’re in deep shit if the rest of the world decides to stop putting up with our warmongering. It can’t keep on going like this indefinately.

      • I put a new 3 way switch on a ceiling fan recently. It cost $6 from Home Depot. I looked on Amazon and they were three for five. I looked up the exact same switch on Ali Baba and they were $250 for 5,000 or 5 cents each.
        That switch added $6 to US GDP, which made nothing, and 5 cents to China’s which actually made it.

        At some point people will realize that a tatted up dyke with a face full of fishing tackle selling blue check marks on twitter adds nothing to GDP.

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    • You can also point to the competency crisis we have here. Russia is not making sure there are enough retarded blacks and trannies making military hardware.

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      • Due to my endless job search I’ve had the displeasure of reading tons of job ads in the “tech” sector as well as occasionally reading a puff piece on Linkedin or some other bastion of corporatism. From what I can see, the upper class White management’s plan when it comes to making anything that actually needs to work (say a parachute) is as follows. Use the “magic of AI” to make the “magic of diversity” somehow look like it’s actually working. Meanwhile, fire any competent White person who knew how to do anything. This is their underpants gnome plan:

        Step 1: Implement diversity at all costs
        Step 2: Sprinkle magic AI dust on all the stuff that’s no longer getting done.
        Step3: ????
        Step 4: Profit.

    • I’m certainly no economics expert, but doesn’t the rainbow haired DIE commissar’s salary and expenditures count toward GDP?

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        • The base value of trades themselves should cancel out, assuming the numbers being reported for tax purposes are correct. You should be left with only the increase in subjective value, same as how consumer goods change hands many time from origin, but all the middlemen transactions cancel out.

          Kind of like how Europe does the VAT.

        • And the MIC executive’s trophy wife paying her yoga instructor, dog walker, and maid with the fiat fed bucks he was paid. Nothing is any faker than GDP.

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          • If the goal of GDP is to come up with a measure of goods and services produced, that’s not a bad way to do it. The yoga instructor and dog walker are going to spend those fiat bux on rent or groceries or whatever, and those same fiat bux won’t end up being saved by Daddy Warbucks, so won’t show up in savings.

            There are lots of problems with using GDP figures, but if you wanted to come up with some aggregate of stuff produced, it’s not bad. Well, until the pointy heads start making hedonic adjustments to that number…

      • The GAE is owning–absolutely owning, I tell you [!}–Russia when it comes to minting new diversity officers, inclusivity instructors, and equity overseers. This alone guarantees Our Democracy will prevail over whisupremiss R’usha.

  16. “Even if the United States does something stupid and attacks Iran itself,”… Okay, so we know that there will be some kind of attack on Iran. This is a good way to estimate U.S. foreign policy these days. “They would never be stupid enough to cut Russia from SWIFT, they would spook the world into questioning the dollar system. “Okay, so the money is frozen, they wouldn’t possibly confiscate the $300 billion. That would throw gasoline on the fire.”….As a bill moves through Congress promoted by the Speaker, to do just that.

    We have to raise our heads from our pillows every morning and say “whatever it is, yes, the are that stupid.”

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    • Exhibit A is the nuclear brinkmanship with Russia over the Ukraine. That would not have happened even twenty-five years ago.

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  17. The Iranians are the guys who shoot down their own airplanes leaving their own airports when they turn on their own air defence systems, right?

    There may be a skill issue isn’t a factor in this analysis.

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    • The US has accidently shot down multiple of its own aircraft, possibly including one or more civilian aircraft, and its billion dollar destroyers have crashed into relatively stationary civilian container ships. I wouldn’t count on skill dominance nowadays. A military only performs as well as its weakest unit.

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      • TWA Flight 800? I was living in the northeast at the time and I remember seeing multiple witnesses being interviewed on local news immediately after it happened. They all described seeing what looked like a missile streaking up from the water and then a large explosion in the sky. In all I think there were over 200 witnesses that told a similar story. Thank goodness the FBI took over the investigation and “debunked” that nonsense. They couldn’t take the chance that some NTSB pinheads who were not with the program might reach a different conclusion.

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        • Weren’t those the same savants who concluded Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone and was solely responsible for assassinating JFK?

    • In July of 1988, a US Navy ship, the USS Vincennes, shot an Iranian airliner out of the sky. Killed several 290 Iranian civilians. And we wonder why they hate us.

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  18. “War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means” – von Clausewitz, “On War”.

    The problem here is that the US Regime is looking for a political outcome first and foremost. The Regime wants Iran to bend to its interests in the ME. These presumably are 1) the free flow of oil and shipping and 2) letting Israel run amok. (the US people obviously only care about item 1, but the Regime DGAF about the US people).

    Regardless of all the technology, tactics, Electronic Warfare etc. (which I’m out-of-date on anyway), we have to ask the following: Is there any military action the US Regime could take that would alter Iran’s political attitude and its activities on the ground regarding the Regime’s interest? I don’t think so.

    We blew up a bunch of stuff in Iraq. Twenty years later, Iran basically controls politics in Iraq outside the Baghdad Green Zone and a few heavily Sunni areas. There are 86 million people in Iran. What political outcome does the Regime envision when the bombs stop flying? 86 million people aren’t going to forget that our Regime bombed them.

    I’m just spit-balling here, but maybe, just maybe the Regime should think about changing its Israel policy.

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  19. Yes, clearly we are being led by corrupt and incompetent poseurs in DC whose covert agenda is to destroy our country via invasion and warmongering. And yes, they may blunder us into a war we cannot win and then escalate dangerously into nuclear brinksmanship, which could devastate the planet. Our problem, therefore, is not to be found in Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Iraq, or Yemen. It is right here in River City.

    And the only real question is . . . can we afford to wait for the collapse before we must do something about it?

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  20. “Killed 3 American soldiers”

    To be clear, from the reports I saw, they were 3 black “soldiers”

    Reports also said the base was “caught sleeping”.

    Hmmmmmmm.

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    • That strike sounds like a false flag. Lots of drone strikes have hit near American troops, but not on American troops, and the militias happily took credit for those… GAE complained that Americans are being targeted when they obviously aren’t… then ONE strike kills American troops at an American-only-staffed location, nobody claims responsibility “but it was Iran”, no offered motive, and GAE immediately declares vendetta against Iran? A sane politician would wait to confirm who threw that drone before committing to a response, when there’s as many players as the Mideast has today.

      This one is not like the others.

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      • “This one is not like the others.”

        What a cohenincidence all three killed are blax. Makes me wonder.

        • You will soon discover that NOT supporting all out war on Iran is not just unpatriotic but *raciss* as well.

          We must avenge Quintavious, Tawneesha, and Big Smoke!

  21. There’s another rather large reason that the US won’t hit Iran too hard. It would very likely cause oil prices to spike. This would cause several major problems for Biden and the neocons.

    First, higher gas prices are kryptonite for election hopes. No way, Biden and team want $4 a gallon gas prices going into the summer. That’s a big no bueno.

    Second, higher oil prices are wonderful for Russia, which doesn’t help the Ukraine cause, which, admitted, is finished anyway.

    Third, spiking oil prices means higher inflation, putting pressure on the Fed to stop its rate cuts, which puts the economy of jeopardy of recession.

    Any one of those reasons is enough to make the US back off. A serious attack against Iran has at least the possibility of creating this nightmare scenario:

    US war ships burning in the Middle East as American scream about $4 or more gas while worrying about losing their jobs – all during the summer at the election approaches.

    Now, is that a guarantee? No, of course not. But it’s a possibility, so no way the administration takes that chance. They’ll send a few missiles to non-important locations after telling Iran that they’re coming.

    This brings us back to the dollar. It’s our last real weapon against a growing list of countries. As you can see, our military just isn’t the threat that it once was. Only the dollar and the banking system are still a serious threat. If these countries create a workable trading system that gives them enough ability to partially circumvent the dollar (they don’t need to full defeat the dollar, just be able to deal with sanctions), it really is game over for GAE.

    Right now, these countries don’t have an alternative system, but they’re extremely aware that this is the last big weapon of GAE, so you can bet they’re working on it. But the dollar system will be their toughest nut to crack.

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    • Spot on, except for, “Third, spiking oil prices means higher inflation…”

      For everyone up to the nation-state, higher energy prices means doing with less energy, cutting back on something else, or both. This nets out at more or less no inflation and no change in GDP, but a potentially drastic drop in quantity of goods and services, and that means layoffs.

      At the nation-state level, yes, that’s inflationary, because they monetize whatever they are spending to fuel jets and tanks.

      • I disagree that there’s no change in GDP. Adjusted to higher energy costs would (at least in the short to medium term) mean lower consumption and production, which is a reduction in GDP.

        Now, does that mean a noticeable difference in actual lifestyle for people in developed countries? Probably not much, though a poor family that now spends an extra $100 or $200 a month on gas and heating bills will not live as well.

        Regardless, the official inflation numbers would show up as higher. As such, say goodbye to rate cuts and maybe even rate increases. That increases the debt burden and may slow lending, both of which aren’t going to help any politician’s re-election prospects.

        The Biden administration isn’t going to take that chance. The US just can’t dink around with many countries as it did in the past for a variety of reasons. GAE is still very powerful but not like it was in the past.

        • “I disagree that there’s no change in GDP. Adjusted to higher energy costs would (at least in the short to medium term) mean lower consumption and production, which is a reduction in GDP.”

          If one good in your basket increases in price, if you bought the exact same basket of goods you would spend more, and GDP would increase. But you don’t buy the exact same basket. You adjust your budget, whether that means changing to hamburger instead of steak once a week, or cutting back on your savings or whatever. Only if your paycheck changes does your total spending (including savings) change. That’s just an accounting tautology.

          Now you are correct that the standard of living decreases, though for everyone, not just the poor. You prefer one basket of goods and services with your earnings, but because energy became more expensive, you can’t afford it, so made do with your second choice basket.

  22. i actually think the reason trump will win elections is cause of the middle east fiasco.

    American js hate Trump & everything that’s reminiscent of white america, but israeli js need US army.

    democrat admistrations are bad for the US military, so they’ll reinstate trump, dump ukraine & hyper focus on protecting the greatest ally.

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    • Both parties love the military now. But the US military is losing it ability to push people around. The world now knows that the US military can deliver one hell of a punch, but it can’t take a punch and they can all now punch back hard enough to keep the US at bay.

      Not surprisingly, Jews have one big, serious weapon left, and that’s the dollar/bank system. Right up their alley. And for now, that weapon is feared across the globe. We’ll see if the rest of world can’t counter it over the next decade or two. If so, that’s the end of GAE and the end of Jewish world dominance.

      But, hey, don’t cry for GAE and the Jews. They’ll still control the Western Hemisphere, western Europe and Japan. Can’t complain about that. Just joking, the Jews always complain, but they shouldn’t.

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      • “US military is losing it ability to push people around. The world now knows that the US military can deliver one hell of a punch, but it can’t take a punch and they can all now punch back hard enough to keep the US at bay.”

        j tribe don’t give a rat’s ass about that.

        j elites care about americans as much as zelenski cares about ukrainians, they’ll utilize american soldiers till the last white american drops dead, they don’t care about what scott ritter has to say about US army’s limitations.

        the reason america is fucked is cause js believe best way to deal with economic collapse is war and flooding country with migrants.

        Thus… the west is fucked.

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        • And don’t forget that the Judeo-Puritans are still worshipping the God Lincoln. Throw in Holocaustianity and you have the perfect kryptonite for American civilization.

          10
  23. No s***. Who the hell is the corrupt, stupid and geriatric US government going to sell a hot war with Iran to? Maybe they figure they can get taytay to fire up her millions of go giiiirrrrllll fans with an updated version of mcstains bomb, bomb, bomb – bomb, bomb Iran…

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  24. Yes mostly it seems like we’re a paper tiger that will lose any war with a peer…unless we’re being incredibly deceitful about everything like leaders do in war. I mean everyone in their brother has a sub stack about how the US military is gutted. Could that be a psyops? That would be smart wouldn’t it, maybe we have some Wonder weapons deep deep underground.
    Seems unlikely but I’m not taking it off the table completely. And I’m saying we rhetorically

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    • You can hide Wunderwaffen and intel assessments, but you cannot hide logistics and demographics.

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  25. This means that the sun is also going to set on Israel. When this reality sinks in, we may find ourselves in another crisis of greater proportions.

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    • Israel screwed the pooch on this whole affair. It has pissed off the entire non-Western world.

      Europe, which already didn’t like Israel, is now ready to throw them aside, especially as the Muslim population grows. Jewish money will prevent this for some time, but it’s coming.

      China will grow even closer to the Muslim countries in the Middle East.

      Israel’s reputation in the US is seriously tarnished even with the media cheering them on. Granted, Jewish-controlled politicians don’t care what the people think, but it makes their job harder.

      Finally, Jews have lost the Holocaust card. You could see them playing it with the UN case against them, but no one buys it anymore.

      Israel will be far more isolated after this war, just as the Mizrahi start to gain even more control and US Ashkenazi demographics are deteriorating. Not good for the chosen people.

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    • “This means that the sun is also going to set on Israel.”

      The Israelis know it and are flailing around for some contingency plan. They’re more aware of the declining US empire than most Americans are. Probably because they’re smarter.

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      • The contingency plan is Ukraine. It’s no coincidence that the (((leadership))) of Ukraine is busy killing off the heritage Slavic population in an unwinnable war of attrition just as the position of Israel in the middle east becomes untenable. It’s their lebensraum plan.

        We may be about to replay the diaspora of 135. I suspect the reform types will head for America while the more orthodox types will head to Ukraine.

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        • Not sure that that would fly. Having the little hats squatted down on that agricultural land, and sitting athwart the integration of Eurasia, the only real hope for any decent prospect for Europe going forward?

          Of course, the pre-existing massive, rampant criminality and corruption is probably appealing to the little hats; it makes taking over a turnkey operation, but the nations around 404 won’t want this at all. And the very notion of giving them another nation state to play around with, oppositionally defiant as they have proven themselves to be would rightly be seen as not acceptable.

  26. Let’s put all the “migrants” strutting across the “border” on the frontlines. I’m sure lack of patriotism won’t be an issue.

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    • The open border also has led to the collapse of Heritage American patriotism. ’tis an ill wind…

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    • Thousands of those “migrants” are already on the frontlines. They are living here and once signaled will terrorize Americans until they are put down. You thought the covid hysteria was bad, wait until Karen sees foreign males attacking here while masked up, what is she to do, accept the risk of being shot because she is wearing a mask or take the damn thing off and expose herself to the death virus. What’s a smart gal like Karen to do.

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  27. Minor but material correction. The US does have numerous inexpensive decoys, real and virtual.

    ADM-160 MALD variants have proven to be highly effective physical decoys over decades. These are cheap relative to the US military budget, linked to operate as swarms in the latter versions, and difficult to bring down.

    Electrons/photons manipulated by platforms like the EA-18G Growler and similar decoy an adversaries air defense systems and serve as virtual decoys. The platforms are expensive but once on station can completely shut down entire air defense grids, and any interceptors directed at them cannot put weapons on them if they are escorted, which they are.

    The US is able to mess with the Iranians and blind or overwhelm them in the air and space. It can take down Iranian naval assets down to their last dirka-dirka canoe. It stands little chance of attacking Iran by land in any meaningful way. The Iranians can, and probably will, register attacks on US soil through the millions of military age males the US taxpayer has paid to invade and they’re already here and living among us today.

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    • Although military arrangements have now been made between Russia and Iran, probably China as well. Do those agreements include helping Iran with air defense?

      I would not bet against it.

    • The Growler is practically an antique now. In the last two years of war the Russians have upgraded all of the EW systems and they have always been ahead of the West in this area. Given that they supply Iran with AD technology, it is foolish to assume Iran would be helpless against aging American tech.

      The bigger problem here is they are carrier based. Iran can reach American carriers from land and now from sea drones. Carriers have AD but we are right back to this math problem. Million dollar AD missiles knocking out fifty thousand dollar targets.

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      • Respectfully, Z, you appear to conflate the Growler with the EA-6B Prowler. The latter pretty much is an antique, although it would be quite effective for broadband jamming and gate range pull off and similar traditional electronic warfare techniques which are still useful especially given the proliferation of former Soviet air defense systems that are themselves understood by the US.

        The EA-18G Growler, which is based on the F-18F, on the other hand is up-to-date and enjoys healthy respect from the world particularly given the bugs have mostly been worked out of the Next Generation Jammer it’s toting. Growler can take down Russia’s air defense systems let alone Iran’s even with Russia’s support.

        FWIW a single contemporary MALD missile puts about 480 fake targets into an adversary’s integrated air defense network. These are blinking on and off and “teleporting” with different velocities and behaviors tens to hundreds of miles away from their actual position all over 3D airspace. MALDs are used in concert with Growlers and other electronic support. They can defeat Russian counter measures reliably.

        0.02

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        • Now, I was thinking of the Growler, a twenty-five year old platform. Its EW was designed at the time of Windows 3.1. It has no doubt been updated over the years, but updated by who and for what? Would this system work against highly integrated AD in Iran? Would it get off the deck against the S-400?

          In the Balkan wars the US was terrified of 1970’s Soviet AD for good reason. The Serbs took down a F117 with an S125, a weapon the Russians made in the 1960’s. The Russians took down One of the few Ukraine 4G fighters over Kiev using their S-400 system from over 100 miles away as a message to NATO. That is why there are no F-16’s in the pipe.

          My point is not that the Iranians would be immune from US weapons. They would take a lot of damage. America would take a lot of damage too. Is the Pentagon willing to lose a hundred planes in an air war over Iran? Probably not.

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          • Some people have been reading too much Tom Clancy and the like. They imagine a clean, surgical war won at low cost by our tech. We’re not the only ones in the world with technology and we sure don’t know just what the Russians and Chinese have. Don’t underestimate the Persians either. Just remember they are well above Arab IQs.

            The old saw “no plan survives contact with the enemy”, we need to keep this in mind. Also just remember who will be manning our side. Any military in which Darth Austin can reach the highest rank is a military of idiots.

    • Ah, yes, the highly effective weapons narrative has been around since Joseph Goebbels when the Russians didn’t just collapse after the launch of Operation Barbarosa. Were German tanks, airplanes, etc. better than the Russians’? Maybe, in some cases. In the end, did it matter? No. When faced with a numerically and materially stronger force, good enough usually wins. This should be well understood by every American, since it has essentially been our military strategy since the Civil War.

      Now, the shoe is on the other foot, and America finds itself outnumbered on the Ukraine question. The Russians have also been able to outproduce the combined West militarily. They win, unless they decide to throw in the towel (which is, according to postwar interviews, what the planners of Barbarosa were counting on). If we extend our view to the Middle East and China, the problem only gets worse.

      Add in the fact that our carrier battle groups could be as obsolete as battleships were in World War II (e.g. HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales), and our security may be hanging on our nuclear deterrent. That would ultimately leave us in a similar position to that of North Korea, which threatens to nuke all and sundry but is largely ignored due to the inability of their material circumstances to match their strategic ambitions.

      • We provided the material that allowed the Soviets to overcome the German offensives. Colonel Macgregor has a great amount of factual information about this. For example, when the Germans overran Stalingrad, they were amazed to find thousands of brand new American Sherman tanks (with diesel engines!) and trucks – all apparently just delivered and all lined up ready for deployment. How did they get there? Via the Pacific and Indian Oceans, up through the Persian Gulf and across Iran to the Caspian. Japan could not interdict the flow of material. Also, Japan was not at war with Japan, so Russian flagged transport ships simply brought American material unhindered right across the Pacific to Vladivostok. Without this help, the Soviet Union would undoubtedly have gone down.

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          • American support for the Soviets was not inconsequential. But the crash industrialization forced upon the country by Stalin was the greater factor in overcoming the material deficiencies which had led to Russia’s collapse in World War I. The irony is how the U.S., which increasing finds itself in the strategic position of Germany, so unselfconsciously resorts to the same propaganda that was utilized by the Third Reich.

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          • Excuse me, but American support was absolutely CRITICAL. Had the Germans decided to retrench to defensible positions in 1943 instead of trying to mount another summer offensive, they would have bled the Russians dry in spite of American support. That Russian slave army that Stalin drove into Germany in 1945 was composed of the very last Russian reserves available.

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        • This is like analyzing the role of the atomic bomb in bringing about Japan’s surrender. The conventional view flatters the U.S. (and ironically the Japanese in seeking to mitigate some of their war guilt), while diminishing the role of Russia. This deprecation of Russia is ongoing in its characterization as a gas station masquerading as a country. Since we now potentially find ourselves on the losing (German) side, we would do well to reassess such attitudes.

        • You’re reading the wrong history books. Lend-lease was tremendously helpful but it never was going to change the outcome. The Russians were goiing to win no matter and lend-lease just took a few months off the inevitable.

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          • A lot of the stuff we sent Russia was useless (e.g. crappy British tanks), but the absolutely essential item we gave them was trucks and jeeps. This gave the Red Army the essential mobility they needed to supply their deep operations.

        • But the German’s didn’t go into defense did they? You’re using something that didn’t happen to prove your point. Events happened in the way they happened, your alternate history did not happen so your point is not valid.

          • The POINT is that the Germans would have defeated the Soviet Union in the absence of American supply lines. The only people who dispute this are Russians and Soviet apologists. Germany slaughtered 27 million Russians. They destroyed three separate Russian armies. Stalin was out of reserves after 1943. They won with what they had left. Those are facts. We gave the commies the materiel they needed to re-equip and train replacements in Stalin’s slave armies. We even shipped in petroleum via Persia. You have no idea how much we gave them. You probably would not even believe. Much of this is still unknown today. Stalin was the luckiest son of a bitch in the 20th century.

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    • I tend to agree with DaBears assessment, and somewhat disagree with our hosts assertion that the regime does not want war. Maybe not a full scale ground war, but a Kosovo style air war with a limited, or Israeli ground component, would be focused on degrading Iranian and Syrian, military and economic capabilities, eventually producing regime change in both countries, or at least that’s the plan.

      It would also allow the Biden regime to implement its domestic agenda under the rubric of a state of war emergency. Under such conditions high gas prices and other economic privations might not be enough to overcome state censorship and shenanigans.

      The trick would be keeping Russia and China out. After all, the real purpose of the war (beyond Israeli interests) would be scuttling BRICS, and Putin and Xi might decide that’s worth fighting about.

      • A “Kosovo style air war” would fail utterly for the reasons that Z outlined. Kosovo is ancient history in terms of weapons development. Iranian AD would wipe out large swathes of attacking US aircraft and their long range missiles and drones would take out any ships or bases within range. And, as with Putin, if regime change were effectuated, it would only be to replace it with an even more hardline leader.

  28. “In a war with Iran, the Saudis would not host American troops and the Turks would certainly not do it.”

    I assumed we would use Iraq. Is there some reason not to?

      • It’s true that they’re a client of Iran now. On the other hand, they’ve already told the US to leave their soil, and the Americans haven’t. So the situation is a little confusing for me.

        • We can’t resupply and fortify our troops in Iraq because Iran can close the Persian Gulf. There is nothing we can do to keep it open. We can’t even keep the Suez canal open. Any American assets in Iraq, Jordan, or Syria are a sitting duck.

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    • That’s a massive amount of staging, if we had anything to stage. I’d heard that even back in the day that Iraq Attaq 2 was pretty much a one and done as the regime expended resources it didn’t (or couldn’t) replace to accomplish the task. Add to that invading Iran would require way more resources than 2003 era Iraq which had already been leveled in one war and then rotted away with a decade+ of severe sanctions.

      And for all it’s flaws Iraq Attaq 2 did have a goal (get rid of Saddam); what would be the goal in Iran? Sack it and install a puppet government that would be overthrown in a week? The whole thing is B.S., we shouldn’t even be there.

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      • Yeah, attacking and attempting regime/change the one country in the ME with a strong sense of nationalism is not a real smart move. Mohammed Reza Pahlavi ain’t walkin through that door.

        Which tells me the US will probably try it.

  29. Cue Wesley Clark (still on Youtube, suprisingly), “7 countries in 5 years.” Timetable delayed, but last country on list, Iran, now in target.

    Let’s hope Miss Lindsay is first one in (as if).

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    • I like the nickname that the Military and Foreign Affairs guy using for Graham: Lady Bug.

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  30. I hope you are right. A real ground war in Iran would be very bloody and probably not successful. Since we now embark on wars without any defined goals, who knows. But that awesome military we had in 1991 is now half as big and without a big tech advantage.

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    • However, the US now has at least 50% more diversity.
      That has to be good for something. Diversity is our strength.

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      • The Bozos in DC probably actually believe that, which increases the likelihood of war with Iran. What military could possibly withstand battalions of trannies in butt chaps and twerking Sass’Queetchas wit dey weaves?!

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    • There would likely never be a ground war on Iranian soil. US and/or allied forces would not make it that far, they’d be repelled on approach by far superior forces and weaponry. Iran is not Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Panama, Grenada or Vietnam. Iran plays the long game, they’ve been preparing for nearly fifty years, US just waits.

      Besides, the islamists in the US simply detonate a tactical nuke in DC and roast the lot of them. Who’d object?

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  31. Great points. The wild card of the US/Iran showdown is the one people are destroyed for mentioning: Jews.

    Most of this hostility to Iran (besides war being just what we do) is believing Iran is the enemy du jour of Israel. The US showed in Iraq that it doesn’t need to win a war to take out someone the Jews feel threatened by. Now Iraqi resistance is getting into the fight against the Jewish genocide of Muslims and Christians but Israel got a long period of not needing to worry about Iraq.

    Z’s best guess scenario is the most plausible but it may come down to how much the American Jews insist on risking in attacking Iran.

    It isn’t like the US is still our country where we can make a decision that is best for the American people.

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    • It’s always darkest before the dawn, MC. This idiocy cannot go on forever. At some point, you hit rock bottom and we are mighty close to the bottom of the barrel.

      How much like the old Soviet Union we’ve become. Remember those elderly Russian carbunkles, with their military uniforms festooned wit medals, posturing and strutting around as if they still mattered? And you see the geriatrics in Washington doing the same today. Even our military is the same – soon they will pretend to work and the country will pretend to pay them…

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      • It’s certainly true that the idiocy cannot go on forever. I’m just afraid that we aren’t anywhere near the bottom of the barrel. Consider, as an obscure example, Germany in the summer of 1944. Strategically, she was beaten. The question for sane people became that of when and how to quit, while retaining some leverage for a negotiated peace that might save the country from utter ruin. Many high-ranking officials in the government and the Army knew this; some even acted on it in July, with the unhappy outcome we all know. Fanaticism overwhelmed reason and the result was a capital in rubble and a humiliating post-war arrangement that made Versailles look like a square deal.

        My point being, idiocy can be apparent, even obvious, long before the bottom is reached. We too are ruled by fanatics who, like those other ones, control the official media, exercise extra-legal power to crush dissent, and above all, have utterly convinced themselves that they are the torchbearers of the future. I do not underestimate the malevolence of our rulers, given historical antecedents…

        I’d say we are at the late 1943 point (in the comparison), with the Afghanistan fiasco our fake and gay Stalingrad, and the Ukraine debacle our fake and gay Kursk. This ride to the bottom is far, far from over, I am afraid. To really strain the analogy because it is fun, the invasion from the south could well be our fake and gay Operation Overlord. God knows what the fake and gay Operation Begratian has in store for us!

      • True. It’s one of the many amazing upside down ironies of this time that, after defeating the Soviet Union, we have almost exactly swapped roles with them. Now it is Putin and Russia, who, for all their faults, seem to embody traditional American values like love of country, a unifying and shared culture, religious belief and family values. Meanwhile, we are run by geriatric psychopaths have inhabit a society riddled with censorship and corruption. Truly amazing times to live in. Oh, and yes, it can’t go on. We are one spark away.

    • “Z’s best guess scenario is the most plausible but it may come down to how much the American Jews insist on risking in attacking Iran.”

      It will depend on how much of a threat war with Iran presents to Israel. It is safe to assume quite a bit, which makes Z’s scenario quite plausible. Israel very well could make a cold peace with China and Russia and join BRICS as the sun sets on the GAE. The question will be whether it can help undermine the GAE sufficiently to satisfy the rising powers. Based on recent history, the answer is “yes.” Watching the banksters and polyester-clad Christian Zionist preachers react to such an arrangement will be hilarious. Remember: throughout the course of the Ukraine/Russia war, Israel has never been part of the sanctions against Moscow. That scrupulously avoided topic was the first clue they saw the handwriting on the wall.

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      • Israel Israel Israel. It’s like an obsession for some. Have you been paying attention to Israel’s latest shindig in Gaza? They ain’t doing so hot. Filling body bags, true, but bogged down. They’ll get their “never again” conclusion, but they’ll be so diminished as to be insificant other than a poignant annoyance, or they’ll be destroyed. The Israeli’s evidently have some sense this so why else start latching up with BRICS?

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        • Israel knows full well the GAE is in rapid decline and is ethnically cleansing Gaza while the United States still has the economic and to a lesser extent military juice to defend it. That’s smart, too. But it also will a pariah for some time afterwards, during which the GAE decline will accelerate. Secondarily, the newly diverse hordes within the United States loathe Israel and Jews, and support has a rapidly closing window.

          Once the genocide wraps up and a few years pass, along with GAE support or even ability to provide support, Israel will seek reproachment with probably Russia first, since it was an original supporter of the country. This is inevitable.

      • I think Gaza is a failed effort to keep America engaged by an aging Israeli elite that is not long for this world. Iran does not hate Israel becasue they are Jewish. That is nonsense from the usual suspects. Iran and most of the Arab world hates Israel becasue Israel operates as an American proxy. If American support for Israel declines out of practical necessity, then Israel will have to change course.

        It is my theory that American policy towards Israel is about using Israel to maintain chaos in the region to unsettle Russian client states like Iran, Iraq and Syria. Note that policy toward the Saudis has been the same as toward Israel and the Saudis have always had a big Washington lobby. The Bush clan was tight with the Saudi ruling family.

        The Saudis are moving out of the American orbit, as they see the sun setting on the American empire. Once Netanyahu is deposed, I think we see Israel make a similar turn. It will be harder for them, but in time they will seek to become a better neighbor with the rest of the region.

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        • After Israel, Iran has the second-largest Jewish population in the Middle East although the number is less than 10,000. Jews have much more enmity towards Christians than Muslims. Iran does see Israel as an American beachhead and is closely allied with Russia, and that is the main source of contention.

          The symbiotic relationship between the United States and Israel was based on reasons in addition to geopolitics, though, and those others are disappearing right along with the GAE’s strength and influence. Demographics indicate the American Muslim population soon will exceed the American Jewish population, Jewish media and popular culture monopolies are waning, and while the financial grip Jews have on the United States remains it depends on economic dominance, which is getting shaky.

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        • Very much this. If there were any patriots in DC or the Pentagram, they would have noticed that the Islamists refer to Israel as “Little Satan” and US as “Great Satan”, and acted accordingly.

        • Nope, wrong on that Z-Man. Even the FT ran an article surveying the ultra-liberal Israelis who have no desire for a peace process, “deal” or anything but Gazans dead or removed. This is typical of tribal vs. civilized nations conflict.

          What the Gazans did on Oct 7 and to hostages afterwards (which is why no more will be released, too many negative stories of Gazan kids torturing hostages) is pretty much identical to the Indians torturing / killing rival tribes and Whites. The Mau-Mau vs Whites. Uighurs vs. Chinese. Algerians vs. the French (ongoing). In all cases the tribal peoples use terror to make their enemies simply go away. Sometimes it works: Algeria, Kenya, mostly it does not. Even the most uber-liberal Israeli sipping their soy latte wants the Gazans either dead or exiled. Its a small country. Everyone knows someone who was tortured to death.

          The reason for the Oct 7 “surprise” was the Israeli intelligence and military thinking they had a “deal” and there was no way Hamas would break it. They refused to know what they saw in preference for the “deal.” That is the flip side for civilized nations, they can flip to extermination/removal very quickly and once set they don’t change. The Israelis won’t budge on that. That Labor politician with no vowels Tzni Lipni or what have you could come in to replace Bibi and there would be no significant change.

          [Logistically, if Israel is determined and it seems to be, they can either kill or remove most of Gaza. It will cost but they can do it. The Gazans have tunnels and armament but no real resupply and no freedom of maneuver. ]

          And globally, this is part of the global identities: there are only two. Team anti-White (which is why BLM in Chicago reflexively celebrated Oct 7) and Team White. Israel vs. Gaza plays out for the two teams of which there are only two. Algerians and Yemenis do not care about Gazans, they care about their Team Anti-White. This is the bitter fruit of globalism, imagine their are no countries, there are only two global tribes. Lennonism may prove more destructive than the alternate spelling.

          • Yes, the DR of all groups should realize that not all groups are equal, and there are certain groups that are simply two legged detritus and the world is certainly better off with no Gazans.

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        • Saudi may have lobbies and oil ties, but they don’t have their fellow dual citizens enmeshed within our power structure to the extent Isreal does. Can’t swing a cat in the upper echelons of ZOG without hitting a juice.

      • It is worth keeping in mind that Jews are the most feminized of all tribes. They love hysteria, keep grudges forever, take any criticism very personally and are very vindictive.

        Jews’ war against the conservative Christian USA isn’t in their self interest but the hate trumps self interest. They would rather flood the country with people that hate them than for whites to be a majority.

        Same with Ukraine. If it wasn’t for Israel needing help they would be willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

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      • I actually think it is the other way round: how much Israel – or rather, Netanyahu and the neocon crazies – need a war to stay out of jail.

    • If you pull yourself out of the 20th century and come to terms with 21st century realities of warfighting, then they’re already doing just that.

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    • Can ZOG reopen the Suez Canal? If not, then the answer to your question is “Most definitely yes!”

  32. Lack of nation-wide patriotic fervor is another reason that the US will never enter another hot war with a worthy adversary as long as our demographics slide into majority-minority. Liberalism was supposed to end all war…”no two countries with a McDonald’s ever fought!…and it did come true, but not because diversity means peace, but because diversity means few give a shit about the home country.

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    • If there is any upside to the open border, it has helped extinguish loyalty Heritage Americans had to “their” government. That fealty deteriorates each passing day one caravan at a time.

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    • “…no two countries with a McDonald’s ever fought!…but not because diversity means peace, but because diversity means few give a shit about the home country.”

      Exactly. Why fight for a homeland that isn’t yours? America is now a homeland to no one. The former homelanders are despised and being replaced. Who roots for America in the Olympic Games anymore? The winning American athlete as likely to take a knee as stand for the National Anthem. Your home is where your house is, not your heart.

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      • I think the “McDonalds” reference, more broadly, was meant generally to signify capitalist, democratic countries, not just those countries literally having a McDonalds.

        • Well, obviously it’s not meant to be taken literally. It refers to any manufacturers of dairy products.

      • Yes, but I believe all Макдоналдс were vacated after Putler invaded.

        So technically still true!

    • Yep. Same here in Europe. It makes me laugh when all our fat, sleek generals who’ve never fought a war start talking about possible conscription. Good luck with that one! No-one cares about dying for the GAE.

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