One of the problems the world faces is that the dominant power on the planet has entered a period of incoherence. Joe Biden has come to symbolize the country he allegedly leads in that he is old, frail and not always understandable. This is how much of the world now sees the United States. What they see from Washington are people either trapped in a bygone era or divorced from present reality. It is as if the last several decades never happened.
You see this in this Financial Times post about what foreign policy could be like under a second Trump presidency. Keep in mind that the Financial Times is often used by the intelligence community to plant stories it wants to launder. The audience is not just the English-speaking world, but also Europe. The people quoted are all said to be associates of the Trump team. Their views may or may not reflect the thinking of Trump’s inner circle.
That aside, the first thing to note is that there is no acknowledgement of present reality in the story. For example, Congressman Michael Waltz is quoted often about how to resolve the Ukraine war. He says, “Trump could threaten to crash Russia’s economy by lowering the price of oil and gas.” According to Waltz, this will force the Russians to beg for peace negotiations. This policy makes sense if it is 1985 and Russia is still the Soviet Union with a brittle command economy.
For starters, the president cannot willy-nilly change oil prices. No amount of American production can drive down prices to a level where it would have an impact on the Russian economy. The “break even” point of Russian crude is well below that of the cheapest American production. Then you have the fact that it will take a decade to bring American crude production to the levels needed to crash prices. There is also the fact that Biden emptied the strategic oil reserve.
In other words, the big idea from the foreign policy experts is something they read about from the Reagan years that has no chance of working now. It is as if they are unaware of the sanctions war they launched two years ago that not only failed to crater the Russian economy but boomeranged back on them. The German economy is in in free fall because they no longer have access to cheap Russian gas. Meanwhile, the Russian economy is booming.
Of course, there is the fact that these people can only think in terms of threats when it comes to dealing with the rest of the world. Congressman Michael Waltz is a neocon sock puppet who was an early cheerleader for Project Ukraine. He was also wrong about every aspect of it. In any other profession, being as wrong as Mike Waltz would be disqualifying, but here he is being quoted as an authority on Russia. This is what happens when there are no consequences to failure.
Elsewhere in the article, they quote Fred Fleitz, a former John Bolton staffer and current foreign policy adviser at the America First Policy Institute, which promotes itself as helping shape Trump policy. With regards to Iran, Fleitz argues “The objective should be to bankrupt Iran again and to reinstitute maximum pressure.” Again? Has he not noticed that Iran survived sanctions for three decades? Is he not aware that Iran now has the support of China and Russia?
With regards to settling the war in the Ukraine, Fleitz says, “We freeze the conflict, Ukraine does not cede any territory, they don’t give up their territorial claims, and we have negotiations with the understanding there probably won’t be a final agreement until Putin leaves the stage.” Unlike Waltz, Fleitz has no clue as to why the Russians would entertain such a silly offer. Note that this idea was first floated by the neocons when the Ukrainian counter-offensive failed.
The jaw droppingly ignorant part of that post is the use of the term “Minsk-3” to describe the Trump strategy. The Russians correctly view the Minsk agreements as a Western ploy to buy time to arm Ukraine. The reason they think this is Angela Merkel said this in an interview last year. Naming the Trump strategy after two prior efforts to trick the Russians is just a way to make sure there can be no negotiations between the Trump people and the Russians.
This is probably why this story was planted in the Financial Times. The hope is to poison the well, so to speak, for the next administration with regards to negotiating with the Russians. They may not be able to control what Trump does, but they can give the Russians many reasons to not trust any overtures. After all, Trump will be gone in four years, so if they can freeze the Russia situation, they have a chance to get back in power and resume their efforts to start a war with Russia.
What becomes clear in that Financial Times story is that the American foreign policy establishment does not have a clue as to how to address the many problems the next president will face. The main reason for their incoherence is they seem to be unaware that these problems were caused by them. Compounding it is the toxic ideology of neoconservatism that has poisoned the foreign policy community. It is a cancer in the bowels of America’s most important institution.
It is what makes prospects for a sober minded and realistic approach to foreign policy under Trump unlikely. Trump’s instincts are good, as are those with many of the people around him, including JD Vance, but he will inherit a foreign policy establishment that is both stuck in the past and corrupted by a worldview that is inconsistent with the world as it is today and with the needs of the country. Fixing this problem without the use of extrajudicial means may not be possible.
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Actually russua is much more reliant on gas exports than the ussr. The country fell because yeltsin staged a coup , not because reagan pushed the saudis to over production.
Heh. It’s pretty hilarious, but since that joke about Puerto Rico at the Madison Square Garden rally (Puerto Rico does have a huge trash problem, which is a well-known uncontroversial truth), for the first time ever, I was watching something on Amazon Prime tonight and there have been multiple tourist ads for beautiful Puerto Rico. Absolutely a coincidence, I’m sure.
If I was dictator for a day I’d rescind US citizenship from Puerto Ricans and kick the island to the curb. It offers us nothing and costs us a lot, directly and indirectly.
A belated side note on Puerto Rico. They have the standard genomics one might expect: Amerindian with some small European admixture, similar to other groups in their region. However, their educational attainment is FAR below what they should be achieving.
It’s the corruption from too many generations of having access to vast American wealth. Being attached to us as a our ‘protectorate’ has done their people (the ones still in Puerto Rico) no favors. When white leftists throw bags of (other Americans’) cash around, acquiring them becomes the local objective, rather than using them to achieve local public works.
Not that it’s likely to happen, but I imagine he could fire all the asswipes in the foreign policy establishment – none of them are worth a flying F anyway…
For all the kvetching about Ukraine, I think Taiwan is the bigger issue facing the foreign policy establishment.
The US and NATO combined along with Japan and South Korea have no chance of beating China. Japan and South Korea, who are in missile range of China will run away before the first bullet is fired. China could build 20 or 30 ships for every one we could make and do it before the war was over. The only way the US/NATO would stand a chance would be if the war was very short. If a carrier is sunk, we cannot replace it in anything like the time it would take even for a longish war. South Korea won’t want its shipyards bombed by the Chinese, so they ain’t gonna help us.
We cannot even make enough mortar rounds for Ukraine. What in god’s name makes anyone believe we could replace carriers and F35s to replace lost ones? Who is going to fly them? Two “Pilotesses” were just killed crashing an EA-18G Growler jet. A navy diverse officeress rigged up a starlink dish on her ship to provide help for any Chinese ship who might want to locate it.
This seems wishcasting. By an intel community that is up against Trump’s defense backers — both the middle bureaucracy and the defense industry. Raytheon and Lockheed both understand that every immigrant, legal or illegal, is about $100,000 less defense spending immediately, and about a million long term as they bring in their poor, sick, elderly relatives. Sure the military age fighting man is good for being a jackboot regime enforcer, but they cost defense spending a ton of money.
Trump is being backed by the defense industry and its aligned people in Silicon Valley, such as Peter Thiel (opposed by non defense LinkedIn Reid Hoffman) as Ukraine has exposed the useless nature of the boutique American weaponry. The ATACMS missile is first rate, and takes 38 months to build. Quantity indeed has its own quality.
No one associated with Bolton who has trashed Trump as unfit to lead and endorsed Harris is going anywhere with Trump if he wins. The same is true with neocons like the Kagans (who also trashed Trump as unfit) or their Congressional Allies. Trump has made it clear that Elon and Thiel and other Defense Associated moguls are going to be in charge of personnel selection.
Ukraine absent a draft and massive US casualties is lost anyway. The US Army War College put out a whitepaper outlining US intervention in Ukraine and projected 50,000 casualties a month. Requiring a draft BEFORE intervention as the US combat personnel in Europe is only about 90,000. A draft even with Trump would not be politically sustainable (as only straight White men aka “Garbage” would be drafted).
Most likely: tariffs to sustain domestic production of everything, steel, auto, ship building, aircraft, lower income taxes to offset higher prices, subsidies for domestic production transition, radically increasing the Navy and Air Force, and withdrawal to the Western Hemisphere leaving Europe on its own, the same for Japan and South Korea and Taiwan. The Russians and Chinese have been projecting power in and around Alaska which is poorly defended and resource rich.
Note: Keir Starmer has sent over 1,000 Labor Party activists to the US to campaign for Harris. At the same time his CCDH Think Tank has schemed to work with the EU to destroy X/Twitter and extradite Musk for criminal prosecution in the UK and EU. Which though they don’t understand it is a direct threat to the US Defense Dept. [It is rumored that Musk has sent up a LOT of classified US assets in space, and is the only launch capacity at scale]. This is going to create a brush-back pitch by the Defense Dept.
In other words, Trump is not just Trump this time — he is the tool of the Defense Dept. and elements of Wall Street that can add two and two and get four.
One could also get the sense that Bezos (#1 intel contractor if I’m not mistaken) is also on board with the defense establishment backing Trump. However, that’s not a united front, note all the generals calling Trump a fascist.
The recent sudden approval of new nuclear power projects, after many years of regime resistance to same (nevermind whether the dieversity is capable of building or operating them, another question) indicates that when Big Tech wants something they get it. I bear this in mind when I see Big Tech seeming to back Trump.
“Trump has made it clear that Elon and Thiel and other Defense Associated moguls are going to be in charge of personnel selection.”
Elon is terrible and belongs in prison. He is the biggest welfare queen in the US. The idea that he will head up a government efficiency agency is comical. He has already spent all the moon-mission gov cheese money. Tesla is only profitable from his government issued carbon-credit scheme.
He is beta testing his 10k/15k Dollar “FULL SELF DRIVING” on our roads where we and our children get to share the road with this horrible untested technology. Any time someone is injured or killed by his fraudulently named “full self driving,” Tesla and Musk personally should be both civilly and criminally liable. Musk should be charged with neglent homicide for every death that has already occurred by this abomination. I heard him say in like 2018 or 2019 that his full self driving can already drive coast to coast without a single human intervention. It’s late 24 and it still cannot do that. The 10/15 grand price and the name full self driving would lead any reasonable person to believe it works and is safe to operate on the streets. Many have.
I’m with Tucker in that this should be banned from our roads. All of it. No self-driving cars ever.
This doofus is claiming he is going to build cars in 2026 without human controls. While this almost certainly will never happen, at least not in 2026, it just reinforces the idea that FSD is safe for our streets and highways.
Musk is under investigation by NTSA for this stuff. He wants to avoid jail or massive fines at a minimum. That is why he suddenly loves Trump. He hopes he can BS Trump enough to avoid this and other investigations.
He’s a grifter…AND an he’s A1 technologist.
There are good grifters, and bad grifters, and Elon is the former.
There will never be any self driving cars, and he knows that, but the dildos that he bilks don’t…
The 1.7-mile Vegas Loop consists of three passenger stations (two above ground, one below), connected by stretches of 12-foot-wide tunnels, all lit with color-changing LED lights. Inside the Loop, a fleet of 62 Teslas circles around, picking up and dropping off passengers and turning a 25-minute walk across the mammoth convention center into a two-minute ride in all-electric comfort.
It’s a Tesla, with a turntable at either end to reverse course, and he suckered them for how much? Ha!
https://www.cnet.com/science/elon-musks-boring-loop-is-finally-transporting-passengers-in-las-vegas/
Tars, some clarification here. This can be looked up as well. Musk no longer has outstanding, developmental loans from the Fed’s. Such were paid back some time ago. What he does have are any number of contracts for services by Fed agencies–such as NASA for its “return to the moon” redo. Why? Because the bastard does space exploration better—and more importantly, cheaper—than the Fed’s. Isn’t such what we always discuss in this group, i.e., private enterprise vs government boondoggles. BTW, car companies have been in the past notorious for government loans and bailouts. Tesla is no exception, except that they paid back such monies loaned.
Second, there are at least 7 companies that currently are developing self driving vehicle technology. Tesla *and* Ford each have had fatal accidents, but most other developers have had accidents on public roadways as well. Not sure I like the local State authorities allowing such on my roads here in AZ, but such seems common all over. Singling out Tesla and Musk is completely short sighted and misses the mark wrt self driving vehicles.
I have Ford’s “Blue Cruise”. It’s a hoot, but I can see where such technology falls short. So short in fact, I used it once and decided that it was too damn dangerous for me. My quick view of the situation is that it fails in taking into consideration the human factor. Making something “foolproof” only encourages the production of “greater fools”.
To wit, one of the Tesla fatalities was during a test not too far from me. It was late at night with a living test driver behind the wheel. Her job was to watch the road and take control if necessary. *She* deemed it was never necessary and got bored, so she decided to watch a streaming movie on her cell phone rather than do her damn job. The Tesla vehicle failed to detect a pedestrian with bicycle crossing on a dark stretch of road and unfortunately hit and killed her.
So was this Tesla’s fault, or the human behind the wheel being inattentive? Incidentally, Ford’s answer to the Tesla crash was the installation of a camera to film the driver and use facial recognition to see where the driver’s eyes were looking. If your eyes are not focused upon the road, the software yells at you to pay attention and if you don’t, it pulls over and stops—a dead man switch so to speak.
My thought is does FSD have to be perfect or just equal to the average American driver?
Never let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Yes, all above is true .. BUT: Musk with SpaceX has put into orbit 100 times the next competitor, which is the nation of China. And has done so in rapid cadence. This matters for obvious reasons. If China/Russia shoot down our satellites, we can with Musk simply launch new ones faster than they can shoot them down.
The DOJ is after him on SpaceX for not employing non-citizens which Defense Dept regs require for national security. The Coastal Commission won’t let him launch because of politics. And if you think he bought Twitter just on his own and not without urging/backing of major defense firms he’s partners with and senior defense officials, you are missing the whole picture.
What will President Harris do? Eliminate Musk and SpaceX and we lose launch capacity, as DEI hires destroy it like Boeing. Go green and outsource everything that has not already been sent to China, then declare war on China so we lose as part of Obama’s Fourth Term. So we’d lose Hawaii and Alaska for sure, and be ruled over by China and Russia. Sure the Generals all call Trump and Musk garbage and the H word, but the senior career people understand that Greater Venezuela will have Greater Venezuela’s defense industry and they will be out of a job unlike the Generals.
Never let the perfect be the enemy of the good…
Sounds Augustinian, and I salute you, mon ami(e).
Solid insights, hats off to you Whiskey.
I am not so sure Trump has good instincts with regard to world affaires. A few weeks ago on the Sean Ryan show Trump said paraphrasing: “The Ukraine was the apple of Putin’s eye and I told him not to do it. He wants to expand Russia like the old Soviet Union. If I had been President it wouldn’t have happened.” He implies that his threats of military force would have dissuaded Putin from the Special Military Operation.
Trump never mentions that he assisted the neocons in building up the Ukraine Army and also allowed the Ukraine Army to brutalize and murder civilians in the Donbass. A large invasion was planned by the Ukraine Army into the Donbass to attempt full control prior to February 2022. Had Putin not intervened when he did there would have been a devastating number of civilian casualties and as a consequence Putin would have probably been removed from office.
With regard to Iran, IMHO Trump, if elected, will not restrain Netanyahu in any meaningful way. If it turns out that the U.S. does not go to war with Iran under Trump it will be because some sane officers in the mid ranks manage to impress upon the neocons that they will lose their ass in any such war.
French ex-president François Holland has also confirmed Angela Merkel’s characterization of the Minsk agreements as simply a mechanism to gain time to arm Ukraine.
Russia has no reason to trust anyone in the West, save perhaps Victor Orban in Hungary or Robert Fico in Slovakia. It may take another generation for Russia to be willing to entertain agreements with the West.
What the neocons fear most, even beyond defeat in Ukraine, is a rapprochement between Russia and the West. Preventing such has been and remains their primary goal for over 30 years. A great Northern Alliance of the White race defending itself against invasion and infiltration from the global south (with China as the middle man instead of, well, you know), haunts their dreams and schemes.
Ironically, a military defeat in Ukraine, with Russia dictating terms to a post-Zelensky government, would be a huge propaganda victory for them, justifying the new Cold War and eventually a hot one, with NATO and Russian troops directly confronting each other, absent any buffer zone.
It will be interesting to see if Trump (or Vance) is smart enough to understand this.
Never mind Trump or Vance – is the average White male of draft age smart enough to understand this? Let them fight their wars with the diversity they love so much.
This is probably why this story was planted in the Financial Times. The hope is to poison the well
It’s always the well-poisoners…
“If I were a rich man…”
The Not All Jews Poison Wells argument of geriatric movement eminences only works if you can afford to attend Yale, live in the suburbs of DC and drink bottled water.
For the people they claim they are trying to save, i.e. those who must drink from the well, it’s obviously silly and dishonest.
Can he not “clean house”
Isn’t this exactly what obama did, at least with the officer corps.
Then installed lick spittles, millie etc. The first SOB that told Trump ” no & refused a lawful order from the CIC should have been made an example of. Then the rest right down to butter bars if thats what it takes. Put McGreggor in & give him total authority.
& shut down the ukrane grift the same hour.
Oh yeah clap romney in irons.
how can there not be a flock of hungry colonels, sharpening their “long knives”?
Once one has been in the military long enough to be field-grade, you have made peace with the notion that you are going to kiss anyone’s ass who can help you to that golden pension and a G-12 do-nothing job after retirement.
“Hungry colonel”. It is to laugh.
Anyone with balls gets squeezed out by O-5.
Good point! I put the chances of a coup pretty high.
“Isn’t this exactly what obama did, at least with the officer corps.”
Exactly. EXACTLY.
Just invite ’em to dinner like Stalin did, with the younger officers standing behind their chairs, and have an unexplainable Las Vegas moment.
Cashier ’em. Buy out the union contracts of a few million federal employees, like the unions do. Not as satisfying, but what is the cost of peace?
I do like the Nussan Dorma solution, though:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/10/29/big-picture-status-update-the-eyes-of-the-world-turn-to-the-u-s-presidential-election/comment-page-1/#comment-11235849
Difficult at best to clean house. You’s need to go down to the Colonel’s as most likely all flag staff ranking is now poz’d. This would become very apparent and publicized. We’ve got, believe it or not, about 800 of these clowns.
Yesterday, Russia showed photos of dead members of a saboteur team caught infiltrating into Bryansk. They were carrying a lot of semtex and headed for the Kursk NPP. Among them was a US military veteran, Canadians, and Poles. This is how the neocons will start WW3 if they are not stopped. And if it goes nuclear, we all die. That is a clear and present danger to us all. It is our duty to stop them before they destroy the planet. Yes, those are the stakes. We act or we die. It’s that simple.
I wish a family member of the dead Ranger would blow the whistle on just how he ended up there. My bet is a sheep-dipped “retiree” who, had he lived would have been welcomed back to the Army with open arms.
> Expect Putin to cave into our demands for no reason other than the fact we demanded them.
Our foreign policy really has been taken over by women, hasn’t it?
Taken over by females…if you keep that under consideration, much of this starts to make (non)sense.
(Note that I quoted “females”, not “women”: a Woman…is a fully actualized human female, and is a term I use as an honorific.
Have you ever dealt with a US embassy overseas?
The staff are all Karens and a demographic that caused me to nickname my local embassy, “the fruit stand.”
After announcing the firing of the 7th floor of the Hoover Building, and the heads of all the intelligence agencies and the JCS during his innauguration, Trump revokes the security clearances of all retired generals, spooks and agents.
Meanwhile, a battalion of Marines is sent to surround the Hoover building, another to Langley and a third to the NSA. Then the fired officials are taken into protective custody to ensure their personal safety under the Patriot Act. Armed security will be provided to the houses of former officials like Brennan, Clapper, Comey, Mueller, etc pending further action TBD. They will of course all be put on no-fly lists.
Then Trump signs an EO banning anyone with a federal pension from accepting money to speak in public without prior written clearance for each statement. Failure to observe this rule will result in suspension of their federal pension. Any network who allows a former official without permission to speak will have its broadcasting license suspended.
Then a new DNI randomly suspends every twentieth clearance throughout the glowie bureaucracy, and on the same day announces a commission that will accept sworn statements of patriotic public servants who have witnessed corruption, criminal activity, and treason against the nation from the period 2015 to present.
Hmmm. Sounds a bit….. Hitler-ish.
It would be a good start. A baby step but a good start never the less.
I am not sure the problem is how dated their worldview is or how inconsistent it appears to be. As for the needs of the country, they don’t give the first fig about the country. In fact, they are complicit with its controlled demolition. I think that Patraeus and other Iraq generals have since 2006 or so been going around openly discussing their plan to make from the northern tip of Canada to the southern tip of Argentina a giant economic zone.
This isn’t about old modes of thinking. This is about a longstanding project that they have a deep and immovable commitment to. Walmart is opening massive distribution centers and stores in Central America now. Flooding the US with people from there and generating economic activity so they can send dollars back to spend at Walmart is all a part of the same plan. Even if that economic activity is fentanyl and other vices. It doesn’t matter. As long as dollars are remitted, American corporations can continue to grow as they are forever seeking Alpha.
The entire thing is a juggernaut. This relates to Ukraine as there are similar plots afoot anywhere and everywhere the GAE has hegemony to implement its designs.
A not knee jerkingly anti Trump piece. I will watch for falling chunks of sky when I step out for lunch.
Thr ground hog year of foreign policy in Washington is 1942. It is always 1942 to them: America is the world beating arsenal of democracy, overflowing with “can do!” vigor. And Russia is hanging on by the skin of their teeth, hoping for almighty America’s forebearence
There will be extreme tension between the UK’s Starmer government and any Trump Administration. Starmer actually praised Trump’s New York conviction, and members of his party stupidly waded into the upcoming American election (Labour is full of Kamala Harris-level morons). Starmer also is very unpopular and with great justification if polls there are to be believed. Trump already had little appetite for the Ukraine war, and its biggest foreign cheerleader has as its PM someone who publicly hates him. Additionally, both the Macron and Olaf governments are deeply unpopular, and the EU is increasingly ridiculous.
Yes, the Foreign Policy establishment runs the show to a large and undemocratic extent, but there are events abroad spiraling out of its control. Whether it has the reason and intelligence to realize that is another question. I think the war ends quickly on Russian terms and basically no one outside Ukraine really will care save Zelensky, whom Western intelligence services will murder or have murdered.
If Trump wins, the real fight will be to get his cabinet nominees through the Senate, so which party prevails in those elections will matter. Expect the GOP warpigs to be among the most oppositional albeit in their bitchy, cowardly, passive-aggressive way.
As for Israel, and this is the opposite of what is widely believed and the current rhetoric, a Trump Administration would be firmer with Tel Aviv than what is the case now largely because Netanyahu gave Biden a tongue bath too quickly after the last “election.” Any port in a storm, etc.
“There will be extreme tension between the UK’s Starmer government and any Trump Administration.”
That’s like saying that during WW2 there was extreme tension between the Quisling administration in Norway and Nazi Germany. Britain is not a sovereign state. It is owned — more than France and Germany — by the USA. Starmer is nobody, a worthless little sh!t.
Both things actually are true–the UK indeed is a particularly slavish vassal state, and its leader hates the potential US leader.
apropos of almost nothing– “Additionally, both the Macron and Olaf governments are deeply unpopular, and the EU is increasingly ridiculous” It is time to start a meme of “FEU” with the double entendre of ‘fire’ in French and the easily deciphered Anglo-Saxon verb + EU. I’m too dense and old to make it happen, but if a younger based entrepeneur sells the t shirt , I’ll buy it. I’d love to see FEU on walls all over Europe
Yeah, it’s easy to forget how Netanyahu sucked up to Biden so quickly after the election. He was the first to call well before the steal was codified Even the foreign leaders who hated Trump wouldn’t call until there was no chance the steal would be overturned. Bibi is a genocidal scumbag of the highest order.
Starting with Wilson, or Lincoln, the feds have convinced White boys to go off on some fantasmical foreign adventure to die. A far cry from Jackson convincing a bunch of Tennessee farm boys to fight the British rather than work the farm. There has always been an element, Charles Lindbergh, that has resisted. As a complete aside, I went to Wikipedia to refresh my knowledge of Lindbergh, and his antiwar stance was based on his…wait for it…not yet… his “antisemitism”. I know a large number of Iraq/Afghanistan vets that regret their post-9/11 enthusiasm. Regardless, the sixty+ year war on YT has made, I hope, White boys a little more circumspect.
Nazi Lindbergh took a long time to come together. When I was a kid they hadn’t settled on that characterization yet, and he was just another American hero. Now he’s two!
There was always a sort of Chamberlain aside in his story, “He was late to realize the monstrousness of the Reich and the necessity of war, but [patriotic music swells].”
The primacy of Hitler in everyone’s story didn’t really settle in until the end of the century. Nazi Lindbergh is “post-9/11” fiction—literally, a character from The Plot Against America.
He was late to realize the monstrousness of the Reich and the necessity of war,
That strikes me as backwards.
“This is what happens when there are no consequences to failure.”
THIS. Not just the foreign policy community, but also the military, government, government contractors, labor unions, major corporations in general. Bloated, arrogant, incompetent, unaccountable.
I’d love to know what George Kennan would’ve thought of all this.
He’d be on Napolitano’s podcast with Sachs, McGregor, and Mearsheimer, because like them he’d have been blacklisted from “respectable” media.
Based on his diaries, Kennan very well may have ended up at AmRen, Counter-Currents or even the Daily Stormer:
“We have a group of more or less inferior races. . . . No amount of education and discipline can effectively improve conditions as long as we allow the unfit to breed copiously and to preserve their young.”
Whoa. Any idea what year he said that?
Around 1932.
Hm. When those sorts of obvious truths were the very air one breathed. He dam’ sure wouldn’t have said that in 2002.
I haven’t read all 20,000 pages of his diaries, but consider:
Kennan would have been 98 in2002 and may have gone full honey badger had the topic come up.
I hope when I am 98 I give less than zero fvcks.
Word. In fact, Kennan was horrified near the end of his life by the United States’ actions toward Russia and didn’t mind saying so, blasted the Iraq War, agitated for secession of all-white New England, and pointed out the insanity of women in positions of power. Even though he died at the age of 103, I wouldn’t be surprised if it weren’t from natural causes.
Probably due to his advanced age and his infirmity he didn’t get unpersoned like Samuel Huntington, who shared many of the same views, especially on race.
RIP.
Had he been old enough and had fought in WW I and then half a century later dropped acid, Kennan would be a — maybe the — contender for the title of “America’s Junger”.
Spot on. Shows like the ones Nap hosts only feature those who has been airbrushed from polite society. They can and often have great value, but that’s the best aspect, the mirror image Stalinism.
He did say that the expansion of NATO to the east was a strategic blunder of epic proportions. He might say that the present war in Ukraine was an entirely predictable result of that expansion.
They’ve really gaslit themselves into thinking Putin is some great Satan when he’s probably (to his own detriment) the most pro-western leader Russia has ever had, and probably will ever have. Whoever they get next isn’t going to be nearly as accommodating (if at all).
I wouldn’t go quite that far, but he’s certainly no Ayatollah Khomeini or Xerxes.
Good observation! Vladimir Putin has been the Russian leader most desirous of good relations with the West since Peter the Great. He was such a Germanophile that he spoke German at home in preference to Russian while a KGB desk officer in East Germany. He’s still quite good at the language–I saw him go from German to Russian and back again, interpreting a German reporter’s question and his answer. The West has completely failed to take advantage of a situation that may occur once in a millenium. Putin himself probably feels badly burned by how Russia has been treated and, you’re right, any successor is going to be much less pro-Western than Putin started out as.
“The German economy is in in free fall because they no longer have access to cheap Russian gas.” This is not a criticism of the Z-man, because I read story after story of many, many troubles in Germany. But check out a graph of the German stock market. From the invasion low of 13100 in February 2022, it has grown steadily to its current 19200, or 47% rise. In fact, its post invasion low was 12100 the day before the Nordstream pipeline explosion on September 25, 2022, it has seen a 54% rise (23% annual compound return)! Since that day, it’s been straight up. “Economy in free fall”, “stock market in euphoria”. Well, they say markets climb a wall of worry. I think it was Herbert Stein who said something like “trends that can’t continue, won’t.” What am I missing?
In American, we have an old expression, “Wall Street ain’t Main Street.” If you a German worker losing your job at VW or taking a ten percent pay cut, the euphoria in Frankfurt means nothing.
Too lazy to look, but how much of that has to do with the German economy, i.e., Volkswagon’s stock goes up because now they’re building more cars in Brazil than Germany (also: infaltion).
Any number of German companies. Are getting “out of Dodge”. They can’t produce profitably in Germany and make money.
The DAX going up probably also means Blackrock et. al are also buying the EU at a discount.
The DAX (Germany’s S&P) reflects a small number of very large companies – around 40 companies. While Germany’s big automakers have been hammered, German tech companies, which are global and not dependent on energy costs, have soared.
If you look at Germany’s mid- and small-cap company stocks prices, it’s a different story. They are the industrial backbone of Germany. The indices that measure their stock returns are slightly down for the year. Germany is in trouble.
It is almost as if small and medium-sized businesses are the ligaments required to hold any sizeable economy together.
Now, if only we could get the dummies at the WEF, EU, and CFR to understand this.
That’s even more the case in Germany. The Mittlestand as it’s known is incredibly important to Germany’s economy. If they’re in trouble, it’s very bad news for Germany.
Inflation of the money supply coupled with a bit of government pumping and you have the same stock market effect in Germany as you have here.
Thanks for all the insightful comments. I come here the the Z-man and get educated by the commentariat.
Too many people conflate the “economy” with how well the elites are doing. If Blackrock is still raking in billions, the economy must be good, right?
The American empire is not only in retreat, but the nation itself appears on the verge of collapse. Normies are looking at the burning drop boxes filled with smoldering ballots and wondering if this is the last election. Some of them are even wondering if the last election was the last one.
Wouldn’t it be ironic, after decades of fear-mongering, if a foreign superpower actually did try to occupy America? Not just buy it up piece by piece, like Chinese oligarchs, but literally like something out of “Red Dawn.” There aren’t enough normal white guys left to take to the hills to fight them off at this point using asymmetric warfare. Moreover, the real Americans (the English-derived posterity mentioned in the Constitution) are in the same wearied, cynical mindframe as soldiers at the end of the Great War. They would not hate their “enemy” anywhere near as much as their “leaders” ordering them to defend the homeland, and probably wouldn’t be inclined to resort to Fabian tactics on their behalf.
I’m at the point where I sometimes, unironically, think liberation from abroad might be a welcome development.
The best we can probably hope for—if the center does not hold—is for a Civ Nat strongman like Trump might become if he’s unfettered by peacetime laws. Someone who views America right now the way Giuliani viewed New York when he cleaned it up. The center not holding would result in myriad semiautonomous fiefdoms, federalism with enough of a genuine particularist character that recodifying Freedom of Association would be unnecessary. You would know where you weren’t wanted, and if you tried to go where you weren’t wanted, you would at least be subject to a thorough search. The Fourth Amendment—freedom from search and seizure—is a Western (re: white) thang, and as Giuliani (and even Bloomberg) realized, it doesn’t apply to our duskier brethren, who will abuse such freedoms. White people shoot each other, but they don’t mag dump at children’s birthday parties when someone takes the last piece of cake or scuffs their shell toes. Let them live their own benighted existences in the hollowed-out remains of the cities, until we take them back, and make them as safe to walk as Singapore or Dubai, or Moscow, whose greatest problem right now—aside from threat of violence from foreign terrorists—is pickpockets.
jj-
There is an argument to be made that the real long-term goal behind the destruction of California is to prepare it for eventual red Chinese occupation and colonization.
This is done by filling CA with IA’s?
With their capitol in Rosemead (Los Angeles area.) It would be a great place to dump their dissidents, such as our ancestors were, or the Conquistadors, most of whom had been released from military prison.
When Xi commenced a purge of the old Hu Jintao loyalists, Chinese money flat poured into Kern County (Bakersfield.) They were resurrecting the old oil fields, and since Gov. Jerry Brown had helped a ((Hollywood)) power couple steal the Kern Aquifer supplying SoCal, suddenly the water denied farmers was available for fracking. Those corrupt Chinese generals were running their money to the West Coast.
Addendum: in addition, my wonderful neighbor (a former border crosser) worked for a time ferrying workers to the new Chinese grow camps hidden high in the Northern California mountains. Drugs, booze, rock-n-roll, illegals from all over the world…the only rule was they couldn’t leave the marijuana plantation.
Jerry Brown and the old mafiosi, Feinsten/Blum and Pelosi, made a ton of money off the Chinese. He got a dozen side gigs as well, such as the thick, unrecyclable, petroleum-plastic grocery bags. Cosco ports? Jeez.
(Addendum, as I have a comment about Chinese dissident money awaiting mod approval.)
Something out of Red Dawn assumes the United States defends its borders. Since it no longer does so, any country interested in taking over could simply get their troops in the same way the 40–50 million other illegals got here. Perhaps they aren’t interested, or are just waiting for the country to weaken further. Either way, it will fall to the New Americans to defend the country, if they’re up for that.
“Normies are looking at the burning drop boxes …”
Frustration Boils as Pennsylvania Voters Witness ‘Non-English Speaking Citizens’ Escorted Past Long Lines to Vote: Report
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/frustration-boils-as-pennsylvania-voters-witness-non-english/
Yes. None of these problems can be fixed without extraordinary measures, including threats and use of violence. The word is that Trump is surrounded by steely-eyed dudes this time around who know what to do. I am not so sure.
One has to wonder if Trump’s people have been in touch with say, Erik Prince, with regard to security, potential clandestine action, etc.
Let us not put Descartes before da hearse! Ergo, what mightn’t Kamaltoe’s foreign policy look like? Perhaps that’ll be Z’s offering–appropriately enough–for Halloween.
Descartes before da hærse! Otherwise known as Death of the West.
A Brit once explained to me what a Cartesian education was.
I told him since Americans are ignorant and apathetic, well, I didn’t know and I didn’t care.
No one wants to believe in Left-wing Boogey Man Trump more than me. I mean if you listen to Lefties, Trump is going to go totally Pinochet on everyone and send everyone from Jon Stewart to Kammy Ho herself on a helicopter ride. Well, maybe Parallel Universe Trump will do that but sadly ours will do, at best, something much milder. He’s still got my vote though. I do admire the courage he showed while literally being shot at and I want to enjoy the deep pain and gnashing of teeth among the purple-haired on inauguration day.
My first post was a general comment on the inability to negotiate with US (really, the neocons). But let’s look specifically at the why the neocon threats are laughable, really delusional.
Russia – Freeze the Conflict
As Z notes, this seems almost designed to anger the Russians, or, at this point perhaps, make them chuckle. Why on earth would Russia agree to letting Ukraine and the West off the hook, just as they are so clearly winning.
The only leverage that the West has over Russia is that Putin has no desire to occupy western Ukraine. That’s it. At best, Trump could agree to a permanently neutral Ukraine with UN troops as a guarantee for Russia. Instead, they are miles from this.
Russia – Crash the Price of Oil
As Z notes, it’s too late from a production standpoint, but there’s another reason: Interest rates. The original fracking boom was fueled by ZIRP. Now, investors need a much higher oil price to get a return on investment, much higher than Russia’s production costs.
For supposedly being good with money, the neocons can’t seem to read a financial statements.
Iran – Sanctions
The BRICs are destroying this option as we speak. Again, the neocons are stuck in a world from 20 years ago.
China Pivot
China has the industrial capacity of the US and Europe combined. Their scientific and engineering capacity can easily match the West. Granted, China would face a brutal fight to take Taiwan, which is why they will wait it out, but as to a conflict with the US, there’s zero chance the US would win.
US Military Power – Not So Great and Falling with Falling White Recruits
US military technology has proven to be a dude in Ukraine. It’s not always terrible, but it’s certainly no better than Russia, which means it’s now about who can produce the most, who’s willing to fight and die and who’s military is capable of implementing a war.
The US fails on all three. Finally, remember, white recruits are now a minority. A military that’s 40% white, 25% black, 25% Hispanic and 10% other isn’t the same as a military that’s 80% to 90% white.
All of these are obvious truths, but the neocons are living in the past. Unfortunately for everyone, this is very dangerous.
The neocons think all golem cattle are equally inferior and interchangeable.
It’s why the Chinese are so frustrating to them.
At best, Trump could agree to a permanently neutral Ukraine with UN troops as a guarantee for Russia.
Can see the headlines now – “Trump halts Russian advance!”
When you say “the American foreign policy establishment does not have a clue as to how to address the many problems the next president will face” you seem to imply that the American foreign policy establishment wants to solve American foreign policy problems when the reality is actually along the lines of what Julian Assange said: “The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war.” If we assume the American foreign policy establishment is trying to do things like end wars, then we might falsely conclude that it’s clueless, but if we recognize that you and I have very different goals from the American foreign policy establishment, then I think we can recognize that they’re actually succeeding with their primary goals. The American foreign policy establishment may nonetheless be clueless about the effects of American foreign policy with regards to concerns you or I have, but I’m inclined to believe that’s a cluelessness of intentional indifference rather than a cluelessness of simpler ignorance.
Isn’t it funny how the common person doesn’t view the government as a criminal organization after the last 20 years?
“The purpose of a system is what it does.”
“Congressman Michael Waltz is quoted often about how to resolve the Ukraine war.”
Amazingly, this guy is probably in the upper decile of Congress (brains, guts and experience) and still gets it wrong. I’ve heard Fred Fleitz speak and I suspect he’s way smarter than anyone in the senior security/diplomacy ranks of the Biden Administration. And he’s just got this wrong.
Look at our recent record – the Kennedy/LBJ team (Vietnam) was very smart and screwed up. W’s team – evil but they were not stupid. They f’d up massively. The Founders understood how fraught foreign entanglements were. That’s why they urged posterity (us) to avoid them. You would think after an almost uninterrupted 60-year record of failure, we would develop some humility and restraint.
The most intelligent American politician I know of is Dick Cheney. Has he ever been wrong? Depends what you mean. I’d say no, not really. But he’s a perfect negative indicator. Whatever he wants, you don’t. If we do what he says, we lose.
Wondering what our rulers are thinking is fun. “Dissident” “content” is pretty much, “Where did they get this goofy idea?” And we make up a story we enjoy. Most of us are nerds and/or religious, so our inclination is to blame books. Nothing outside the text!
Eventually we should stop nooooticing and really notice: Who they are is inimical to us. Smart or dumb, left or right, Judeo- or Christian, elite or “counter-elite” (the stupidest cope we ever made up)—they are all equally our mortal enemies, and there’s no possible reconciliation, not even at the margins, not under any circumstance.
Their advantage, the reason they’re always a century out ahead of us, is: They have always known this.
“The hedgehog knows one big thing.” I’ve never liked that. You know who knew a big thing? Ted Bundy. And when we make up really fun stories about our rulers, they aren’t stories of crafty self-defense.* They’re about sacrificing raped children and eating their flesh to summon demons. We do know.
*Actually, that’s what libertarian stories are. The vilest pornography.
“You would think after an almost uninterrupted 60-year record of failure, we would develop some humility and restraint.”
To Z-man’s point, the have been no consequences to failure for sixty years for these people.
Somebody Web said that McNamara admitted we went into Vietnam because we thought the Russians were involved, but that no, we were wrong, it was just a civil war.
A couple million dead people later, and it was just an oopsie.
Thing is, even the lie about the lie is a lie. It was a lot more complicated than that, but even then they just can’t. stop. lying.
“Fixing this problem without the use of extrajudicial means may not be possible.”
I agree. A big chunk of the problem is that those in the DC bubble are blithely unaware of the sharp and irreversible decline in US influence and hard power. The USA is no longer a “superpower.” Its latitude in policy is now sharply circumscribed.
Rule #1 is “not to get high on your own supply” of propagandistic BS but that seemingly is what has happened to those in the DC bubble. And of course you can’t get to be an Inner Party member if you don’t subscribe to the groupthink. Maybe the same would happen to me if I were part of it, I don’t know. But as a hungry lumpenprole on the outside I probably see things they don’t.
The System accepts no feedback and is basically a “closed loop” because dissent has been crushed. So any correction to it is going to be “thermodynamic” now.
I find it grimly amusing that the (((people))) currently shrieking about starting a four-front WW3 are the same people who got rich spending the last 50-plus years shipping, “the Arsenal of Democracy,” to various Asian countries.
“The USA is no longer a “superpower.”
That’s the big one, isn’t it. We’ve sent almost all of our 1st rate equipment (as well as second rate) to be “tested” in the fields of Israel and Ukraine and those have been neutralized. Trump 1 had the advantage of bluff, Biden turned the cards over and played openly on the table and lost. Trump 2 is screwed.
For me the eye-opener was Putin’s speech back in 2018 (or was it 2017?), when he unveiled Russia’s new defence technology. And more so a year or two later, when Andrei Martyanov came out with his book, “Losing Military Supremacy.” At the moment, as you say, Biden has turned up the card to reveal two tens and a two — 22 — which means he’s holding and playing a busted hand. The house just can’t lose.
Trump is probably smart enough to realise the realpolitik even if it can’t be openly revealed (otherwise Liz Cheney and the lunatic neocons will be bellowing about defeatism and Trump being a Putin stooge).
AA-
Speaking of military supremacy, here is Alastair Crooke on Judge Nap claiming his sources confirm the great Israeli raid on Iran was a total failure:
https://www.youtube.com/live/txkNk76E3SI
For years I’ve said one of Russia’s top research priorities is a radar system that will defeat current US stealth technology.
If Crooke’s comments are accurate, it sounds like the Russians have managed to field such a radar.
Well to be a little more accurate, I’d say the US is no longer THE superpower. Still, same effect.
The reason I would make that distinction is the US can still cause a heck of a lot of damage, and does.
These people are impossibly dense, delusional or disingenuous – or all of them. What’s perfectly clear is that the US foreign policy establishment – and let’s face it, they run the show, not the president – simply cannot be negotiated with.
That’s the lesson of the article. The neocons and their sock puppets are used to being able to lie to people or to use US power to force other countries to negotiate. Now that those levers are gone, they are lost and refuse to accept the new reality. The rest of world understands this and is acting accordingly.
I argue today that these guys are smart and still “screw up” from our point of view. We have to be open to the idea that The Purpose of the System is What it Does, as other dissidents argue. The MIC/grift/war machine has become a self-licking ice cream cone. It will break from thermodynamic, not political, force.
Yes, permanent war is quite lucrative. It also fits the nature of the neocons, which simply love to meddle in other people’s affairs. They’re a middle-man people after all. Fixing infrastructure, health care, etc., bores the living daylights out of them and their WASP sock puppets.
I think exhibit A for intelligence on their side is Bibi.
We know he is technically intelligent by how quickly he passed through Harvard and MIT when they were still rigorous schools.
We know he is politically intelligent because he’s been at or near the top of the Israeli power structure for 40 years.
On top of this he speaks English with near native fluency, enabling him to communicate directly with his fanatical followers in the GAE.
Add it all up, and it means Bibi is a highly skilled, dangerous power player that will be around for quite some time.
That’s pretty much the game right now, good summary
Israel’s belligerence toward its neighbors is probably the most important foreign policy issue right now because it threatens to cause a global disaster, yet neither a Harris nor a Trump administration will deal with Israel as the rogue state it has become. Until Israel no longer controls much of our foreign policy apparatus, we will not be able to address many of the problems cited above. Since this is never going to happen, we’ll just have to hope that sober minds will prevail in Iran, Russia, and China.
Going forward, it’ll be interesting to see how the American Jews get along with the Israeli Jews. Yes, Jews control US foreign policy, but the American Jews seem to be tiring of the Israeli Jews and that will only get worse as Israel’s demographics change.
I’ve wondered how we can exacerbate tensions between Israel and the chosen in the USA.
I’d prefer to ignore all of this, but any intra-chosen conflicts distract them from oppressing whites.
While the chosen in the USA are committed to protecting and expanding Israel, they also want to be comfortable in the USA, which entails pandering to “no one is illegal” and “diversity is our greatest strength” sensibilities.
At the very least, this means ensuring that when Israelis crush Arabs, we encourage the non-whites in the USA to express rage at the chosen.
The American Jews seem to be tiring of the Israeli Jews
Where do you see this?
Kneecap Israel and DOS jewdom
However, Israel is proving to the peoples of the West that large numbers of Muslim enemies can be forcibly removed and the Muslim world won’t do sh*t. No reason it can’t be done in Lyons, Bradford or Berlin.
That is a great point. I had the uncertain feeling that, like it or not, Israel was once again showing the way. Ask for acceptance, but not for permission.
Remember, Lucifer’s highest law:
Do as thou wilt. That is the whole of the Law.
Yes, in this sense Israel is showing the way. Unfortunately, following their lead and kicking out the Muslim immivaders would require the same thing as standing up to Israeli excesses and madness – a spine. That’s something that Europe and the US both would need to regrow.
The leadership in both continents would also need to be able to think in terms of the needs of their actual people instead of ideological abstractions. Apart from Trump, Orban, and maybe a few “far right” Euro-pols, I don’t see this happening yet.
“… yet neither a Harris nor a Trump administration will deal with Israel as the rogue state it has become.”
Both are owned lock, stock, and barrel by the Zionist lobby. We all know that. But there’s more. USA and Israel are like the Earth-Moon system, a binary system, which is a key component of the US imperial system. Even were Trump not owned by the Zionists, there would only be certain things he can do within the parameters of the imperial system (notwithstanding his radical rhetoric). Look at the structural logic of the declining US empire to understand what he can and cannot do.
If America turned its back on the Middle East for a few decades, nothing much would change. Israeli aggression against the sand peoples has no impact beyond the region unless the U.S. is dumb enough to get involved.
…Uh oh.
I’m signed up for Dennis Prager’s emails. Yes, yes, I know. Every now and then he reminds me that he’s not the harmless old fuddy duddy who likes to do “fireside chats” about nice family friendly topics. Today’s email was him going on about how happy he is to see Reva Pahlavi (son of the late Shah) claiming that “the Iranian people are ready for regime change”. This was an excellent real world reminder of exactly what Z was talking about today. It’s the kind of tin-eared obliviousness that afflicts the Jewish neo-con policy elite and makes you wonder if they all just woke up from taking a cryo-sleep nap that started in 2002.
The whole thing was baffling on several levels. He’s acting surprised that the son of the current regime’s main enemy thinks it should be overthrown? Then there’s the actual, literal quote “He believes the Iranian people are ready for regime change”. I mean, come on Dennis, you’re not supposed to say that part out loud. As I read it I could swear I heard the “America, fuck yeah!” song from Team America: World Police. Well, of course, I’m sure he imagines Israel starting the fireworks and then Murrika rolling into Bagd… er, Tehran, as pretty Iranian girls throw flowers into the tanks.
I’m hoping that Prager is NOT one of Trump’s inner circle but it’s a little disturbing to hear him talking this way just a few days before the likely re-Trumpening. It make me wonder if he knows something we don’t.
There seems to be a lot of perplexity about Israel’s strategy in this conflict. What is the end game?
Well it’s really simple. “Kill all our enemies.” While much of the West seems to have forgotten the old ways, they haven’t. Could be a lesson there.
The State Department suffers from groupthink more than even the average Washington ministry. In those unhallowed halls, the support for Kamala Harris must rise past 80 percent. The State Department was always pink or red; even when McCarthy was waving around fake papers, there were Communist fellow travelers in it’s ranks. Its love of the capitalist system is tepid, its adoration of “free” government money genuine. It would take a nuke blast under their bums to realize how much Russia plays by its own rules, not theirs. At least during the Cold War there was Das Kapital and the other works of Marx to look to: there is no Book of Putin. They just can’t get it through their Georgetown-educated processed-hair heads that Putin will do anything — anything — to protect the 25 million Russians in extra-territorial Russia, and if that means invading each of the former Soviet republics, so be it …
— Greg (my blog: http://www.dark.sport.blog)
I disagree with the assertion that there is no “book of putin”. It exists, its “The prince” by machevelli.
Then there is Dugin’s oeuvre.
1987 Benetton catalog, spine creased at the pages of non-whites in winter wear.
These people are playing yesterday’s game of white nations against white nations. It was pathetic 100 years ago. Today it is unspeakable. Every group of white people wants to pound their chest about how they beat the devil out of some other group of white people (Russia, Germany, England, America, France, etc). This has to stop. Save the ire for race traitors.
I always get a kick out of these “reports” that quote people who claim to be close to Trump. They are always and everywhere fake.
Trump will probably kneecap Ukraine. That’s the most likely strategy. To end the fighting, Russia likely keeps most of what they took, Zelensky is removed and exiled, and a new government is put in place. If there’s an agreement, it’ll include guarantees that what is left of Ukraine will not be permitted to join NATO. And Russia will demand guarantees that the west won’t fink on them again (lol, but okay).
We broke Saudi Arabia’s back during Trump 45 due to our high levels of energy production at the time. Oil was cheap. Gas was cheap. Every time the Saudis tried to flood production to try and beat us, they had to take out loans! Eventually, we won that trade war.
Don’t be surprised if Trump goes right back to that strategy. Not to harm Russua, but to take advantage of the extra production to lower prices here at home. America first. He’s done it before.
You’ll also see a big push to defend and develop Alaska. There is an insane amount of energy there. The Army just put a division up there as a message to China/Russia not to mess with us there.
The State Department is going to have a long 4 years. Trump in a speech recently called their negotiators incompetent as he described several situations where State said “you can’t do that”. He did it anyway, and beat tariffs the French wanted to impose and got those 27,000 Mexican troops to enforce “stay in Mexico”. So, Foggy Bottom is in for a long 4 years.
Trump can make his job easier through mass firings. There won’t be a replay of Ukraine Impeachment. Trump will likely fire a lot of people. If he can tie troublemakers like Nuland, Powers, and Kerry in legal knots – Nuland should swing for the Ukraine debacle – that further hamstrings State. Nuland should have her passport revoked, for example.
Trump’s foreign policy problem is the same as last time. He seems to have learned from this, and I think we will see him very aggressively decapitating DOS leadership.
And the neocons will be on the outside looking in again. He literally called John Bolton a stupid lunatic the other day.
That’s why the hysteria is through the roof this week.
The most likely outcome of the war is the Ukraine army surrenders, Zelensky flees and the Russians facilitate a new government through internationally supervised elections. That new government signs the deal the Russian put in front of them. That deal gives Russia control of everything to the east of the Dnieper and control of the Dnieper. Ukraine becomes a neutral, agricultural country within the Russkiy Mir.
I wonder how the media will try to blame Trump for losing Ukraine? They will do it and it will be non-stop once the Ukrainian army collapses.
the coverage of the war if trump gets in will turn like they flipped a lightswitch. It’ll go from “russia is failing” to “ukraine is failing” so quick you’ll get whiplash.
It’ll start with Trump kneecapping Ukraine to accelerate the collapse. All he’d have to do is turn off the money and pull our troops out. Stop sharing overhead imagery and comms. Poof, Ukraine army collapses. You might be right, but “total capitulation” in a war hasn’t happened since Japan in WW2. A Korea-like split is more likely.
We’re not far apart. But I think it gets done in away that doesn’t involve some sort of military surrender. It’ll be more subtle than that.
I’ve said since 2021 that this will wind up a lot like Georgia. Longer war, bigger country, similar result.
The Russians will never accept a Korea solution. They have no reason to accept it. The thing people need to understand about Russia is they never trade what they have for what they already have or what they can get on their own. They are not the Republican Party. The four regions plus the Crimea are Russian lands. They can demilitarize Ukraine and impose neutrality on it without talking to the West. That means the West has to offer something the Russians do not have now in order to get talks.
That is what the experts fail to grasp. To get Russia to the table means first giving them something. That something cannot be what they consider theirs, like the half trillion in reserves the West stole from them. Maybe the end of sanctions would work, but at this point how much is that really worth?
That said, Trump never throws good money after bad, so he probably settles for cutting off Ukraine and turns it over to Europe.
Something else the experts fail to grasp is that Russia views the majority of the remaining Ukrainian civilians as Russians. They are not conquering foreign lands: they are liberating their own people. In addition to de-militarizing Ukraine, they also will “de-Nazify” it. Putin has been clear of his aims from the very beginning. He would never accept a solution that leaves “fellow Russians” at the mercy of those Banderite psychopaths.
A half trillion in reserves? Was that a bail-in for the EU and US/Canada? We might be closer to the financial brink than we thought.
I would suggest to the neocons that if they want to keep a seaport in Odessa they will have to agree to the stationing of Russian troops there. There would be inspections of all cargo into Ukraine from the Odessa Port.
All of the four regions and an occupation zone to include BOTH sides of the Dnieper River. Of course that means Kharkiv and Kiev among other large cities. All of this and returning the Russian funds.
I don’t see the Russians accepting anything less. All this or we will see you in a couple of years at the Polish Border.
Probably Russia will insist on a land bridge to Odessa and Transnistria to land-lock the Ukraine and complete demilitarization of what remains. No NATO, no EU with complete neutrality.
It’ll end up looking like Georgia.
“You might be right, but “total capitulation” in a war hasn’t happened since Japan in WW2”
“I mistook the stars reflected in a pond at night for those in the sky.”
The order you lived your entire life under is ending, so why would you expect things to be like they were under that order?
Agree, but how does Russia ensure that in five or ten years, the West doesn’t meddle in Ukrainian politics, causing another Zelensky to get elected demanding NATO membership?
The Russians seem to be getting smarter about this stuff. They outmaneuvered the NGO’s in Georgia, for example. They will make sure the NGO’s cannot setup shop and that Ukrainian pols who head West for grooming stay in the West.
Good point. Indeed, countries around the world have figured out that the West’s favorite tool is regime change. Orban certainly has worked to counter this.
I also seem to remember Xi very publicly removing a pro-Western politician a few years back. Seems that the word is out.
If governments put their sovereign boot on the neck of NGOs, such as the regime change types by NED, the eco-terror Greens, the child-grooming Pride, or, most importantly, the human trafficking industry by HIAS, they could quash the most dangerous tool of subversion the sovereigns have ever faced.
Everything is a risk and the future in unknowable, but if I were Putin or Putin’s hand-picked replacement, I’d be subverting like there’s no tomorrow:
*Keeping those migrants flooding into Europe and the Anglosphere
*Distracting the GAE with Middle Eastern/European Muslim shenanigans
*Double-paying the online Civnat Right and “Dissident Right” to attack the GAE and play nice with Russia
*Doing the chaos-agent thing where Russian officials compliment publicly some US official who is known to be a Russia hawk, thereby making other American officials now suspicious of the Russia hawk
*Sending pretty Tatar boys to Lindsey Graham to record his conversations, and in general honeypotting like hell (because who can’t resist a young Russian lady?)
“and in general honeypotting like hell (because who can’t resist a young Russian lady?)”
Easy, Marko! I’m beginning to think you may have been compromised…
Clayton Lonetree says, “Let me tell you about young Russian ladies.”
Sure. If I was Russia, China, India, Iran, any other country or group, I’d simply follow the Jewish blueprint. Set up various organizations, launder money into them and let them start funding politicians, writers, NGOs, etc.
I’d also get some intelligence guys into the mix to use blackmail and intimidation against those who don’t play ball. I’ve often wondered why various groups don’t follow the Jewish playbook. It’s not complicated.
Pretty much…Putin was tricked by the Minsk agreements and will not be allowed to sign anything that requires honesty or good faith, because Medvedev and the General Staff have had enough..I doubt the international involvement, however…the new Ukraine doesn’t need Western support, just the support of BRICS, which will be no problem..
Ukraine is loaded with valuable minerals and fertile farmland, so it has plenty to offer…
I’ve wondered greatly about this dynamic. Clearly, some are more tepid in their feelings towards Putin. But one has to think that, if people such as populate the General Staff are intelligent, they view Putin as a pretty darn effective leader, considering the perilous waters he has pretty effectively (not perfectly) navigated for over two decades. But, who knows?
One thing that Russia will probably insist on in the rump Ukraine, if it still exists, will be the abrogation of all sales of Ukrainian assets to foreigners with no recovery of monies paid. That will be a fairly big deal because there is so much exposure of Blackrock, Monsanto and others.
A better deal for Russia would be taking over all of Ukraine. Second best would be taking most of Ukraine without the parts that are claimed by Poland, Hungary or perhaps even Slovakia and Romania.
No Ukraine, no problem. Kiev is an ancient Russian city anyway.
Kiev was the original founding capitol of Russia. An old Ukrainian related to me how 1400 years ago, a group of Swedish Vikings migrated and founded Kiev, which went on to become Russia, empire of the Rus. Muscovy (Moscow) was still thatch huts and pigpens even when the Khans arrived.
Cool. Any chance we could get a post about how this outcome will affect both the GAE and the American people?
I remember watching Col. McGregor in an interview on Fox News about a week after the war started. The host was losing her mind about Russia attacking all of Europe. He said nonsense. They will stop at the Dneiper River. I never saw him on Fox News again.
One would hope Putin will insist on the nationalization of Uke land bought by the Western conglomerates in any peace deal. Putin needs no more oligarchs to content with.
Zelenski should hang.
The grifters from the west, collecting millions from no show jobs.should be put on trial
& who ever had the brite idea to locate bio weapon labs there should be handed over to the russians.
The Bolton stooge echoed what Condi Rice said last week: They can freeze the war then negotiate after Putin is gone.
Hear that Putin?! We’re gonna freeze the war, then wait you out!
He literally called John Bolton a stupid lunatic the other day.
Trump is literally the guy who hired him. In that interview with Rogan when he called him a stupid lunatic, he was really surprised when his card-playing buddy called him up and told Trump Bolton was a bad man. Why the hell did he not do a minute of research on him before hiring him? Why did he not immediately fire him? Maybe he liked the idea of having a maniac next to him when negotiating with foreigners, but a rabid dog will bite his master as well as the intruder. Bolton, true to self, stabbed Trump in the back in the end.
Trump had a huge number of choices to make in a hurry, and his entire staff was devoted to electioneering, he had no advisers who knew their way around what is called the deep state.
He might be better prepared this time, if he manages to get elected.
Bolton was hired in the middle of his presidency, not in the early days.
I hope he is better prepared and shows better judgment this time around, assuming he is elected.
One of Trump’s greatest weaknesses is that he is unable to focus for any length of time. While he appears to have affection for the traditional American people, he gets distracted and lets traitors make important decisions. He’s like a cat following a laser pointer.
He mostly just wants Ivanka’s friends to finally think he’s a cool guy.
There are approximately 10,000 federal positions nominated directly by the President.
About 1,000 of those are very high priority.
Trump sailed into office with literally zero institutional support.
I hope it’s different this time. Theil, Elon, and others certainly think it might be.
“Trump is literally the guy who hired him.”
Because Sheldon Adelson insisted. This time around it will be Miriam Adelson who will do the insisting. Money talks.
Sorry didn’t see your post before sending mine. Well, great minds think alike.
I looked into that when Trump hired him. It was so weird – I thought everyone knew the perfidy of the Walrus. It turns out that Bolton was (is?) tight with the Adelsons. Maybe that it’s now just Miriam that’s changed.
“extrajudicial means”
Shoot about half the staffers in the State Department?
Or perhaps Kerry’s plane could “vanish”, but it isn’t just him. A professor friend of mine who used to work on capitol hill around forty years ago told me that at this point, the top 1/3 of the “leadership”/buracracy at foggy bottom not only has to be removed – probably forcefully – but has to be literally banished somewhere where they’ll have no contact with anyone.
He went on to explain that even if they’re removed from the State Department, they’ll still continue to exert influence and screw up any attempt to fix things through proxies.
One thing that would remove their post occupation influence is the immediate removal of all secret clearances! These clowns sell their access to such government secret documents in retirement. When I left the university, I don’t think I made it home before I no longer had staff priv’s and access to buildings and such—and I was a nobody.
Trump wouldn’t have to be that dramatic. But mass firings, coupled with an refusal to follow court injunctions and rulings of the Merit System Protection Board will probably be necessary.
The “Biden” “Administration’s” college loan forgiveness scheme has set a precedent for creatively ignoring court decisions. Democrats packing the Supreme Court would delegitimize that body, so out of the bad may come some good.
Yes. He will have to go General Pinochet on them to get anything done. Above all he will have to ignore the courts. Due to the emergency you understand.